Bold Prediction Time: Arkansas goes 9-3 if...

[Wildhog]

Or what?

YOU...gonna fire him?

If he gets to six...does that mean you will suddenly be happy with him?

The "or you'll do what" posts are adorable.

Six wins would go a long way in convincing me that we're headed in the right direction.  I'd certainly be a more positive poster.  You know, like how I've been for the vast majority of my time on this board?  I'm not being negative because I enjoy it.

[Inhogswetrust]

Guv and I will spring for the iced tea if we go bowling.

For those wanting to imbibe I'll chip in for the beer!

[Steef]

The "or you'll do what" posts are adorable.

Six wins would go a long way in convincing me that we're headed in the right direction.  I'd certainly be a more positive poster.  You know, like how I've been for the vast majority of my time on this board?  I'm not being negative because I enjoy it.

Have to admit, I used to like you better.

[troyer37]

More then anything I am sick of people saying well we almost won this game we almost won that game. Bottom line is we lost "almost" doesn't get us anywhere. Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

[SPAL]

6 is theceiling. Anything more than that is unrealistic. It's these outlandish and unrealistic expectations that will have people ready to fire the coach when these expectations aren't reached.

[Steef]

More then anything I am sick of people saying well we almost won this game we almost won that game. Bottom line is we lost "almost" doesn't get us anywhere. Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

Kiss my six.

'Almost won' the MSU game is a whole lot better than 52-0 against Bama. It means the team was still hanging together and TRYING...even after getting pounded several times in a row.

With all that went on the last couple of years...even a decent effort is something to be encouraged about.

So I'll take 'almost won' our last two games. Especially since both of those opponents had bowl-qualifying seasons.

[bennyl08]

Here's my thinking on this thing...

We literally had TWO PLAYS last year that kept us from being 5-7....anyway. Two plays. Which means we were 'in it' with at least 2 SEC teams.

And our team last year had REAL issues. We had three true freshmen starting on the Oline, for crying out loud. And our QB had one arm in a sling for most of the season. His throwing arm.

I can't help but believe we WILL actually be better this year.

And as tough as our conference is...several of our opponents have issues of their own. At least four (off the top of my head) will be starting brand new QBs. It's entirely possible that most of our conference will NOT be better than they were last year.

I'm going with 7-5.

Pretty sure we only had 2. Swanson and Hurd were seniors and Cook was a Junior.

Arkansas wins if:

@Auburn: Pretty much what the OP said for this game. Give both teams the generic level of improvement expected of them, and then add on an efficient day passing for Brandon, throwing over 200, maybe 250 but he doesn't need more than that, and we win this game. We weren't far off from winning last season, and our team should improve a bit more in year two than theirs, IMO. If BA can improve in this game and we not have any drop off in the talent of our DL, I like our odds.

Nichols St: So long as a meteor doesn't hit the bus our team is on, we should win.

@TTU: Arkansas wins if we can establish and maintain our rushing game, keeping their offense off their field and out of a rhythm. Then, when they are on the field, put pressure on their qb. We can essentially just rush the passer and blitz every play because their run game is not a threat. If their offense does find some success, we should stick to the run a good bit, but even last year's BA could carve up their defense fairly well.

NIU: We have a real shot of winning this game even if it was played with last years teams, though we would have had a real shot of losing that game as well. This year, they lost BY FAR their two best players, one on each side of the ball. We definitely win this game if they don't have another first round draft pick on their team. Even if they do, we win this game by pounding them and using our superior depth to pull away in the fourth.

aTm: We win this game if our offense can outpace theirs, the same formula as last year. The difference is, this year, we return basically everyone on offense and added a few new toys, while they lost Manziel, Evans, and Matthews. Granted, they have more good tackles to face this year and a stable of running backs, but can they beat us in the air? Our defense will likely be better than theirs, so their offense will have to be significantly better than ours to outscore us, unless Sumlin breaks character and actually works on improving defense.

Bama: We win if the losses to the NFL draft have been too much to handle. Most teams, Bama included, have a tendency to kind of alternate years when they lose a lot talent to just a bit. More importantly is how many juniors lost. Bama has had two years in a row of substantial talent lost that can be very hard to simply reload from. I.e. look at LSU last season. They had back to back decimations and weren't THAT great last year. This year, they lost their entire offense, but retained the better part of their defense. Bama could have a mortal offensive line this year and their defense which wasn't exactly water tight last year lost even more talent. Add on the fact that they have several question marks at the quarterback position and we get them at home where we should be 4-1, possibly 5-0 if the Auburn game goes well, and that could spell doom.

UGA: As crazy as it sounds, I like our chances against Bama better than Georgia this year. Georgia returns a whole, whole lot of players this year. Essentially their only real loss was Murray. However, Mason is still one of the more experienced quarterbacks in the SEC next season with 8 starts to his name. We win this game if we aren't too beat up physically from the Alabama game, if Mason struggles at QB in his first extended streak of starting, and if Georgia's defense uncharacteristically doesn't improve. Speaking of the alternating years of major draft departures, UGA has definitely followed that trend. Two years ago they didn't lose a whole lot, which meant that last year there was a backlog of good talent that the NFL gobbled up, so that when the season came around, Georgia's defense was less than stellar. However, they return most of that defense, which historically has shown improvement of it's players. However, if being 9th in defense last year was a reflection of their talent and not a lack of experience, then the game could turn into an exciting RB duel between Gurshall and Colliams with Allan and Mason doing their best to supplement.

UAB: We win this game if we don't get lost on the way to the stadium.

@MSU: We win this game in a similar way to the Georgia game. Basically the only team to return more experience than UGA is Miss St. with one of those players being a dark hose heisman qb already after limited starts last season. We can win this if MSU returns more experience than they do talent. Starksville is a tough place to win even when we have a better team (see 2010). We will need to not make silly mistakes and defeat ourselves. Jumping out early to silence those cowbells would help as well.

LSU: I'm not sure on this game. With the rivalry weekend game, it was always a 50/50 tossup. Now that the date has changed, will the mojo be the same? Regardless, this team lost their entire offense for the most part, but returns most of their defense which should be even better as they were fairly green last year. We will have to be very balanced on offense to win this game and we can't give up a 96 yard drive with seconds left this year. If we can play this game with a healthy team (it will be post bye week), stay balanced on offense, and not make stupid mistakes on defense, we have a shot.

Ole Miss: We win this game if our defense doesn't make stupid mistakes. I trust our offense to be able to move fairly well against this team, but we will need to get points on the board when we do move the ball, and not give up big plays on defense. Force them sustain drives against us and they will make mistakes that we can capitalize on.

@Missouri: Play like we did vs LSU last year and we should win this game. Missouri probably lost more of their production on both sides of the ball than any other team we face this year. Granted, their new, green players will have had 11 games to become veterans by the time they play us, but most of our team will have at least 2 years of starting, if not more. It should be an exciting game, but even our recruiting in general has been better than theirs, so we should have more talent on the field than them.

[Steef]

Pretty sure we only had 2. Swanson and Hurd were seniors and Cook was a Junior.

Skipper, Kirkland and Henry....?

[ifghog]

5 shows improvement. I think that is the number. More than 5, well, coach B will be a little ahead of schedule in my mind.

Can't believe I agree with you but...I am right where you are.

[Wildhog]

6 is theceiling. Anything more than that is unrealistic. It's these outlandish and unrealistic expectations that will have people ready to fire the coach when these expectations aren't reached.

Going 2-6 in conference play is unrealistic?  Good lord.

Sad, sad times.

[bennyl08]

Skipper, Kirkland and Henry....?

Henry is a TE...? I suppose you could argue that he lines up next to the OL a good part of the time, but I feel most don't consider the TE part of the OL. You more often see them grouped with the WR than the OL in terms of positions, though physically they line up closer to the OL...

[Tim Harris]

[Deep Shoat]

I'm starting to turn the corner just because getting negative all the time gets old.  When you bread it down objectively study it really hard this team was as close to 6-6 as they were to 3-9. 

Brandon made some mistakes and gets hurt, Bielema made some mistakes, had some bad luck and the chemistry with Ash just wasn't there.

With a healthy and wiser BA, and a smarter, more seasoned staff 6-6 should be very achievable. 

9-3 is a very bold prediction, just can't let bold predictions get in the way enjoying (as much as you can enjoy) a 6-6 season and some real progress.  After the last 2 years any bowl will be a great bowl.  I don't care if it's Shreveport, Birmingham, or wherever.

Excellent post.

[Steef]

Henry is a TE...? I suppose you could argue that he lines up next to the OL a good part of the time, but I feel most don't consider the TE part of the OL. You more often see them grouped with the WR than the OL in terms of positions, though physically they line up closer to the OL...

TE isn't part of the Oline? (Not trying to smart. I just always thought that was true)

In any case, that's three true freshmen on our starting offense...yes? And BA was newbie also, albeit a redshirt. And Alex was a true freshman. And JWill had not seen much action before last year. And most of our receivers had limited game time.

With the exception of two seasoned guys on the line, our offense was all new. Against (arguably) the toughest SEC in years.

[Atlhogfan1]

This staff has only recruited one full class to develop and most of it hasn't had its first practice yet.  A little early to be determining how well the recruiting classes are being developed especially at a program like ours.  Ratings are partially done on how ready a recruit is to step in and contribute.  We aren't signing many that are and won't. 

The "quit" comments regarding the South Carolina game last season are inaccurate.  The team didn't quit.  It was overmatched.  Spurrier with a veteran qb and wr's and an effective running game could do whatever he wanted to our back 7.  Probably one of the easiest matchups he has ever had as a playcaller.  The fake call was out of knowing the defense wasn't going to be able to stop SC.  We had to try and keep the ball offensively.

For me, it is too early in this rebuild to put a win total demand on a season.  Other than the 3 rent a wins, we'll be underdogs in every game as of now.  This may change once we get a couple of weeks in and see our team and our opponents play.  Injuries and the mental state of our team and our opponents when we play them will play a role.  AU, TT, A&M, OM and Mizzou all have offensive styles that will put pressure where we are weakest - the back 7.  Bama, LSU and UGa won't need a system to have an advantage at almost every position.  That leaves MSU.  I'm not buying the hype of Prescott.  We've heard this about MSU qb's before. 

To demand any total before most seasons isn't realistic.  You have no idea how things will play out including those things beyond a coaching staff's control like injuries to their team or opponents.  Mizzou was on the good side of this last season and the bad side in 2012.  A couple of our more winnable games this season may be at MSU and OM in Fay.  But MSU gets an open date and UK before us.  Ole Miss plays Presbyterian and then has an open date before our game.  We are coming off of Bama, UGa and UAB when we go to Starkville.  We have to play LSU the week before Ole Miss.  Holding a staff to 6 wins or whatever when we may not have a capable backup qb again and are thin at wr and in the back 7 where we may at best have an SEC competitive first team - forget about depth there - is a little much.  Back to the developing of players discussion, give this staff time based on how our program is able to recruit. 

I'll have to see how this season plays out before I'm critical over the win total.  Last season could have been 6 but not should have been.  Coaching errors (trick plays and fake punts), injuries, matchups and on the field mistakes(inexperienced DBs not covering their responsibility, rugby punts kicked the wrong way twice, fumbles, ints, drops) all contributed to why it was 3. 

[cosmodrum]

Have to admit, I used to like you better.

Well, he used to be more better.

[cosmodrum]

Ugh.

[HF#1]

The problem I have with this is that we should have won more than three last year.  He always needed to win six by year two.  Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in several games last year doesn't change that.  There's just nothing anyone can say to convince me we shouldn't have beaten AT LEAST Rutgers and MSU last season.  That MSU game was some of the worst football/coaching I have ever seen.

Shoulda woulda coulda is the difference between 3-9 and 5-7, I agree.  Bottom line is that we didn't.  Not because of bad luck or anything out of our control.  It was because we were not good enough. 

The worst defeat was probably LSU.  I appreciate Eric Bennett's time here but my god, we probably lost three games because of that guy alone. 

We could very well win more than 6 this upcoming season.  But if we don't, I won't be surprised.  We can still make progress and be 5-7.  The hole Petrino and John L put us in was always going to take 3-5 years to get out of.  That is the truth.

[PonderinHog]

The tangibles indicate 3-5 wins.  The intangibles give us a shot at 6-8 wins.  If we get some early momentum against Auburn, this could be a season to remember.

[Steef]

Well, he used to be more better.

Literally LOL'd.

[Steef]

The tangibles indicate 3-5 wins.  The intangibles give us a shot at 6-8 wins.  If we get some early momentum against Auburn, this could be a season to remember.

My fellow Hog fan. One way or another, I'm confident we will ALWAYS remember this season.

In fact, I believe we will always remember 2012-2015 as a clump.

[Wildhog]

Houston Nutt's best friend:

[Wildhog]

Three millions dollars.

[All Bleed Red]

The 1st game could be a season changer.  I really think Gus is beatable, especially on the first game.  One thing he has proven is his teams are dangerous when panic sets in.  Which means he coaches great under pressure and his players feed off of it.  Really, I think the only way we beat them is to win the turnover and special teams battle and have the lead going into the 4th.  Feed the RB's in the 4th to take the heart out of Auburn.  Gus's team would be expected to make a great 2nd half run if behind, but our running game could make that really tough. 

Auburn will come into the game extremely confident and coach B has been driven all off-season to prove a point.  I foresee a great game and I really think Arkansas has a 40% - 50% chance of winning.  A win there could lead the way to 9 win season.  GOOO HOOOGGSS!!!

[Woopig69]

Three millions dollars.

$2,980,000 more than you made last year.

[Dwight_K_Shrute]

More then anything I am sick of people saying well we almost won this game we almost won that game. Bottom line is we lost "almost" doesn't get us anywhere. Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

No but teams that are close to breaking out have close loses

[Bigmac2]

Don't care how many games we win. Just want to see the Oline and Dline control the game. All this pass happy stuff won't get it done. It will help but it won't dictate this season. Controlling the ball and plowing over folks is what we are going to bring to the dance and I'm just fine with that. Kudos to whoever pointed out about our back 7 on defense having to improve substantially. If we are having to depend on the pass then that will worry me. I want them to know what is coming and can't do a dang thing to stop it. I'll take 150-200 in passing yards and 250-300 in running yards every week to make us competitive. Over any of those two while maintaining over those numbers we more than likely win with a decent defense. Key word in that last sentence is decent. I AM READY FOR SOME SMASH MOUTH FOOTBALL!!!!

[Augustus]

Pretty sure we only had 2. Swanson and Hurd were seniors and Cook was a Junior.

Arkansas wins if:

@Auburn: Pretty much what the OP said for this game. Give both teams the generic level of improvement expected of them, and then add on an efficient day passing for Brandon, throwing over 200, maybe 250 but he doesn't need more than that, and we win this game. We weren't far off from winning last season, and our team should improve a bit more in year two than theirs, IMO. If BA can improve in this game and we not have any drop off in the talent of our DL, I like our odds.

Nichols St: So long as a meteor doesn't hit the bus our team is on, we should win.

@TTU: Arkansas wins if we can establish and maintain our rushing game, keeping their offense off their field and out of a rhythm. Then, when they are on the field, put pressure on their qb. We can essentially just rush the passer and blitz every play because their run game is not a threat. If their offense does find some success, we should stick to the run a good bit, but even last year's BA could carve up their defense fairly well.

NIU: We have a real shot of winning this game even if it was played with last years teams, though we would have had a real shot of losing that game as well. This year, they lost BY FAR their two best players, one on each side of the ball. We definitely win this game if they don't have another first round draft pick on their team. Even if they do, we win this game by pounding them and using our superior depth to pull away in the fourth.

aTm: We win this game if our offense can outpace theirs, the same formula as last year. The difference is, this year, we return basically everyone on offense and added a few new toys, while they lost Manziel, Evans, and Matthews. Granted, they have more good tackles to face this year and a stable of running backs, but can they beat us in the air? Our defense will likely be better than theirs, so their offense will have to be significantly better than ours to outscore us, unless Sumlin breaks character and actually works on improving defense.

Bama: We win if the losses to the NFL draft have been too much to handle. Most teams, Bama included, have a tendency to kind of alternate years when they lose a lot talent to just a bit. More importantly is how many juniors lost. Bama has had two years in a row of substantial talent lost that can be very hard to simply reload from. I.e. look at LSU last season. They had back to back decimations and weren't THAT great last year. This year, they lost their entire offense, but retained the better part of their defense. Bama could have a mortal offensive line this year and their defense which wasn't exactly water tight last year lost even more talent. Add on the fact that they have several question marks at the quarterback position and we get them at home where we should be 4-1, possibly 5-0 if the Auburn game goes well, and that could spell doom.

UGA: As crazy as it sounds, I like our chances against Bama better than Georgia this year. Georgia returns a whole, whole lot of players this year. Essentially their only real loss was Murray. However, Mason is still one of the more experienced quarterbacks in the SEC next season with 8 starts to his name. We win this game if we aren't too beat up physically from the Alabama game, if Mason struggles at QB in his first extended streak of starting, and if Georgia's defense uncharacteristically doesn't improve. Speaking of the alternating years of major draft departures, UGA has definitely followed that trend. Two years ago they didn't lose a whole lot, which meant that last year there was a backlog of good talent that the NFL gobbled up, so that when the season came around, Georgia's defense was less than stellar. However, they return most of that defense, which historically has shown improvement of it's players. However, if being 9th in defense last year was a reflection of their talent and not a lack of experience, then the game could turn into an exciting RB duel between Gurshall and Colliams with Allan and Mason doing their best to supplement.

UAB: We win this game if we don't get lost on the way to the stadium.

@MSU: We win this game in a similar way to the Georgia game. Basically the only team to return more experience than UGA is Miss St. with one of those players being a dark hose heisman qb already after limited starts last season. We can win this if MSU returns more experience than they do talent. Starksville is a tough place to win even when we have a better team (see 2010). We will need to not make silly mistakes and defeat ourselves. Jumping out early to silence those cowbells would help as well.

LSU: I'm not sure on this game. With the rivalry weekend game, it was always a 50/50 tossup. Now that the date has changed, will the mojo be the same? Regardless, this team lost their entire offense for the most part, but returns most of their defense which should be even better as they were fairly green last year. We will have to be very balanced on offense to win this game and we can't give up a 96 yard drive with seconds left this year. If we can play this game with a healthy team (it will be post bye week), stay balanced on offense, and not make stupid mistakes on defense, we have a shot.

Ole Miss: We win this game if our defense doesn't make stupid mistakes. I trust our offense to be able to move fairly well against this team, but we will need to get points on the board when we do move the ball, and not give up big plays on defense. Force them sustain drives against us and they will make mistakes that we can capitalize on.

@Missouri: Play like we did vs LSU last year and we should win this game. Missouri probably lost more of their production on both sides of the ball than any other team we face this year. Granted, their new, green players will have had 11 games to become veterans by the time they play us, but most of our team will have at least 2 years of starting, if not more. It should be an exciting game, but even our recruiting in general has been better than theirs, so we should have more talent on the field than them.

[Deep Shoat]

don't sleep on Nicholls. Samford almost beat us last year. Don't underestimate how bad this team really is. While I applaud your hopeless optimism, I have a better chance at getting Laid by Pamela Anderson than this team does at winning 9 games.

Who, exactly, are you a fan of?

It obviously isn't the Razorbacks, despite your avatar.  A fan identifies with the team, even when depressed or angry about their performance.

[cosmodrum]

$2,980,000 more than you made last year.

He's ballin' this year, though.

[SPAL]

Going 2-6 in conference play is unrealistic?  Good lord.

Sad, sad times.

You aren't hard to figure out...raise the bar ridiculously and unrealistically high. When those expectations aren't met, you can use it as ammo for more "fire the coach" posts.

If you've been paying attention, you would know better. So either you aren't keeping up with the program or you have an agenda.

So are you ignorant or an idiot?

[cosmodrum]

You aren't hard to figure out...raise the bar ridiculously and unrealistically high. When those expectations aren't met, you can use it as ammo for more "fire the coach" posts.

If you've been paying attention, you would know better. So either you aren't keeping up with the program or you have an agenda.

So are you ignorant or an idiot?

More of a moran, really.

[SPAL]

One of my favorite morans of all time....

[cosmodrum]

And blossomed over the years into this

[Al Boarland]

It's unreal how low the bar is being set.  The psychological toll these last few years have taken on our fanbase is depressing.

5 isn't the bar.  The bar is competitive in the SEC.  5 is the reality of our roster and that of the teams we play. 

[Music City Hog]

5 isn't the bar.  The bar is competitive in the SEC.  5 is the reality of our roster and that of the teams we play. 

Exactly.  6 wins would take a miracle.  I'm looking to be competitive.  We weren't competitive in most games last year.  I just want to see us being a formidable opponent in this league, even in our losses.

[Wildhog]

You aren't hard to figure out...raise the bar ridiculously and unrealistically high. When those expectations aren't met, you can use it as ammo for more "fire the coach" posts.

If you've been paying attention, you would know better. So either you aren't keeping up with the program or you have an agenda.

So are you ignorant or an idiot?

Yeah, losing as many games as you win is such a high standard.  I thought he should have won five games last year.  We were in position, but found a way to lose the games.  That doesn't alter my expectations for year two.  Anything less than six will be a disappointment to me. 

Expectations like yours are the reason Nutt was around so damn long.

[HF#1]

Yeah, losing as many games as you win is such a high standard.  I thought he should have won five games last year.  We were in position, but found a way to lose the games.  That doesn't alter my expectations for year two.  Anything less than six will be a disappointment to me. 

Expectations like yours are the reason Nutt was around so damn long.

Frank Broyles is why Nutt was around so long. Not fan expectations...

[ricepig]

Yeah, losing as many games as you win is such a high standard.  I thought he should have won five games last year.  We were in position, but found a way to lose the games.  That doesn't alter my expectations for year two.  Anything less than six will be a disappointment to me. 

Expectations like yours are the reason Nutt was around so damn long.

I think we should win 6, disappointment will depend on the reasons why we don't. Way to early to worry about that.

[cosmodrum]

I'd be quite pleased if we won 6. I'd be content if we won 5. Not overwhelmed or underwhelmed...just whelmed. 4, I would be disappointed, and 3 I would be sharpening my pitchfork.

[Wildhog]

MSU (who I consider to be the worst program in the SEC-W) went through the Croom disaster, and Mullen was able to win 9 games in year two. 

I'm really not asking all that damn much.  Your psyches are broken.

[cosmodrum]

MSU (who I consider to be the worst program in the SEC-W) went through the Croom disaster, and Mullen was able to win 9 games in year two. 

I'm really not asking all that damn much.  Your psyches are broken.

We've been severely beaten down. Over and over and over and over and over...

[Wildhog]

We've been severely beaten down. Over and over and over and over and over...

Look at MSU under croom.  Three straight 3-win seasons, one 8-win season, and then a 4-win season.

Mullen's just a good coach.  Good coaches win games.

[ricepig]

MSU (who I consider to be the worst program in the SEC-W) went through the Croom disaster, and Mullen was able to win 9 games in year two. 

I'm really not asking all that damn much.  Your psyches are broken.

Moo St gets some decent talent, they just were poorly coached. They also always play one of the weakest non-con schedules.

[Wildhog]

Moo St gets some decent talent, they just were poorly coached. They also always play one of the weakest non-con schedules.

MSU has recruited at roughly the same level of us.  We may even have a slight edge.

[ricepig]

MSU has recruited at roughly the same level of us. 

And your point is?

[Wildhog]

And your point is?

I thought you were saying they get more talent than us.

[ricepig]

I thought you were saying they get more talent than us.

Well, his first two classes were 18th & 19th on Scout, but I'd say we were pretty equal in talent.

[dc10x1103]

gus comes home

[Music City Hog]

MSU (who I consider to be the worst program in the SEC-W) went through the Croom disaster, and Mullen was able to win 9 games in year two. 

I'm really not asking all that damn much.  Your psyches are broken.

6 is a nice goal.  People just need to remember though that 6 is the ceiling if all the stars align.  Expecting 4-5 and hoping for 6 is a realistic goal.