Bold Prediction Time: Arkansas goes 9-3 if...

[bennyl08]

I don't know if Allen can make that sort of jump in efficiency this year. I don't mean that as a knock against him, just calling it as it is. He barely completed 50% of his passes this past year and averages show that you can expect a QB to make a 5-7% increase in efficiency going into their junior campaign.

I'm not saying it cannot be done, because he was in fact injured last season, but what I am saying is that we will find out the extent of that injury in short order this year. If he comes out slinging it around for 60% after the first month of ball, he is a much better QB than most here have him figured for...even myself.

60% is pretty damn good by Arkansas's standards. What's the season record? 63%

Either way, I hope he proves the numbers and the naysayers wrong. I am behind the kid.

You have a 5-7% on average jump just from the experience alone (your number). Then say another 5% increase due to being healthy. Throw on another 3% due to improved WR/TE play, and it isn't unreasonable to see him throwing 65% next season. It'll probably be closer to 60%. However, I'm making up the injury number. Looking at ULL, Samford, Ole Miss, MSU, and LSU, BA threw 60.7%. So, based on his healthy #'s, a 5-7% increase (ignoring improvement in receivers) would put him at 65-67%. His first and last games at peak health he threw for 66.666%, with the addition bumping him over 70%. In the games in-between, he threw right at 40.4%. So, perhaps that injury was a 20% decrease in accuracy?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Brandon Allen completes 60% of his passes and averages 210+ yds a game passing  .  After breaking down every other position I really feel that it'll come down to QB play.  I don't think this team is as far behind as most think.  Quarterback play absolutely sank us last year, yet we were still in plenty of games against the big guys of SEC (LSU, Auburn, & Tex am).  Our lines should be stout, and we all know we have big time RB's.  My glasses may be Rosy but write it down  .  The defense should be good enough to keep us competitive.  Bring on the season (and criticism), I'm excited!

I think that we can average just over 200 yards passing and over 220 per game rushing. But so much of this is going to hinge upon our defensive play, giving the offense better field position on average, and better offensive play, extending drives and not putting our defense in a hole and having to defend with their backs against the wall.

And need it be mentioned, TO Ratio will play a major role in all of this. We need to cut our giveaways in half and add 4-6 more takeaways.

Is that going to produce a 9-3 season? Maybe. But given our schedule, the odds are against it. 7-5/8-4 maybe.

Bottom line is, after last season and the year before, too little is known of the true potential of this team.

Time will tell.

[bennyl08]

don't sleep on Nicholls. Samford almost beat us last year. Don't underestimate how bad this team really is. While I applaud your hopeless optimism, I have a better chance at getting Laid by Pamela Anderson than this team does at winning 9 games.

                 SAM   ARK
1st Downs      13   22
3rd down          3-11   6-12
4th down           0-0   1-1
Total Yards           231   458
Passing         117   125
Comp-Att         19-28   9-17
Yards per pass  4.2   7.4
Rushing       114   333
Rushing Att      25   53
Yards per rush 4.6   6.3
Penalties        4-20   6-65
Turnovers          0   2
Fumbles lost      0   2
Int thrown         0   0
Possession      24:13   35:47

Yes, we were technically down to them in the fourth quarter, but the only thing that kept them in the game was our own mistakes.

ARK: TD
SAM: 3/out
ARK: TD
SAM: TD
ARK: FG (holding penalty killed the drive near redzone)
SAM: Punt
ARK: Punt (15 yard penalty put us in third and 22)
SAM: 3/out (punt return fumbled, recovered by SAM)
SAM: 3/out
ARK: end half

SAM: Punt
ARK: Fumble at own 24
SAM: (after penalty by ARK) TD, first play of drive in own end zone
ARK: 3/out
SAM: Punt
ARK: 3/out
SAM: TD (drive started at 50)
ARK: TD (3 plays into fourth giving us back lead)
SAM: 3/out
ARK: TD
SAM: 3/out
ARK: ran out clock, could have easily scored another TD

This team has had 4 players drafted for the past 3 years, 3 players drafted the year before that. Don't underestimate how much talent is on this team. Since the 2007 draft, this team has averaged just over 4 players drafted per year.

[wikipedia brown]

I'm so glad people are finally getting excited like this! Hogville has been too dead without rose colored predictions.  We will all be predicting 11 wins in no time!!

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[MuskogeeHogFan]

don't sleep on Nicholls. Samford almost beat us last year. Don't underestimate how bad this team really is. While I applaud your hopeless optimism, I have a better chance at getting Laid by Pamela Anderson than this team does at winning 9 games.

By the way, Pamela Anderson called, looking for your number, though I see our potential top end being 8.

[Großer Kriegschwein]

On QB completions, its not so much that we need to complete more (1 more completion every 10 passes will get nearly 60% for BA) its more important to get the type of passing in particular situations that stretch the defense is what will open up our running game strengths. Confidence, footwork and vision control would go a long way to getting BA there. No doubt he's got testicular fortitude, but add some fundamentals to go along with it and we're closer to being there.

[Al Boarland]

We should win at least 3 non conference games and 4 SEC games are winnable, but 3 out of the four are on the road! So realistically 5 wins would be great!!!!

I know this won't be well received, but N. Illinois and T Tech are not auto W's.  We will have to fight for those wins.

[The Galloping Ghost]

I know this won't be well received, but N. Illinois and T Tech are not auto W's.  We will have to fight for those wins.

For the last three years I've read the same posters, who are the sunshine pumping, eternal optimist get on here and predict season results that I believe even they themselves knew were  outlandish at the least. It seems that part of the culture is to stake ones claim as a "FAN" by finding the most embellished position available and taking it, no matter how absurd in truth it may be. There are even posters here, whose names I won't call, who have tried to form careers from securing the most biased outlook possible to play into the crazy fanaticals good graces. It is somewhat of a curious environment where reality and expectations rarely meet. I guess that's what sports are for...I can't understand how some make it the all consuming passion that it appears to be though...but that's just me...

[870hogfan]

I know this won't be well received, but N. Illinois and T Tech are not auto W's.  We will have to fight for those wins.

We will beat N. Illinois by 2 plus touch downs...

[The Galloping Ghost]

We will beat N. Illinois by 2 plus touch downs...

Conjecture...you have NO idea what will really happen.

[870hogfan]

Conjecture...you have NO idea what will really happen.

Neither do YOU.

[goodguytex]

I kind of find myself in complete agreement with WildHog.... which worries me. 
We need to win 6 this year. Anything less than that and we aren't progressing like we need to be. If we don't and QB play is a major factor in our lack of success, I will be clamoring for a real QB Coach to be brought in. QB play has to get better. I think we are on the right track with our defense. Big thing is to not beat ourselves with boneheaded INTs or bonehead penalties. It's the self inflicted mistakes that get you as much as any others. Don't turn the ball over, use ball control, and improve defensively and we should win 6 at least.

[Arkansas WR]

We go 9-3 if Austin Allen is the next Johnny Manziel. Manziel was a redshirt freshman when he bursted on the scene.

[razorbackkid]

If we pull out a victory @Auburn this team may indeed win 9 games.  Confidence would be though the roof.

[Bacon_Bitz]

71/117 60% 168 ypg 9td 3int

BA's stats for the first two games and the last three games.  What if his injury really did drag him down during the middle of the season?  This kind of production (maybe just around 50 more ypg passing) and a few breaks our way, and we could get to 6 wins.

Also, I ain't skeered of Aubarn.  I just ain't. And we ain't either. They can run on us (but less than they ran on other teams last year), and we can run on them.  I think we'll run 'em out of Jordan-Hare.

[HogFanatic]

You have a 5-7% on average jump just from the experience alone (your number). Then say another 5% increase due to being healthy. Throw on another 3% due to improved WR/TE play, and it isn't unreasonable to see him throwing 65% next season. It'll probably be closer to 60%. However, I'm making up the injury number. Looking at ULL, Samford, Ole Miss, MSU, and LSU, BA threw 60.7%. So, based on his healthy #'s, a 5-7% increase (ignoring improvement in receivers) would put him at 65-67%. His first and last games at peak health he threw for 66.666%, with the addition bumping him over 70%. In the games in-between, he threw right at 40.4%. So, perhaps that injury was a 20% decrease in accuracy?

Well, I highly doubt that the injury alone accounted for a 20% decrease in efficiency. I mean, if that is the case, the coaches were completely bone headed to keep him out there. I think it was a combination of a couple of things. 1. The injury. 2. Meat of the schedule.

How does the "meat of the schedule" account for the LSU performance? It doesn't. And this is probably the thing I love most about our coach and this team. There is ZERO quit in them. In the last game of the season, when they had nothing to play for, they still took LSU to the wire. They played their guts out. I respect that.

Look at it this way, if the injury accounted for a 20% drop, we could reasonably expect Allen to throw for 70% this year, provided he remains healthy. If Allen throws for 70% this season, I will film myself eating my own feces.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Well, I highly doubt that the injury alone accounted for a 20% decrease in efficiency. I mean, if that is the case, the coaches were completely bone headed to keep him out there. I think it was a combination of a couple of things. 1. The injury. 2. Meat of the schedule.

How does the "meat of the schedule" account for the LSU performance? It doesn't. And this is probably the thing I love most about our coach and this team. There is ZERO quit in them. In the last game of the season, when they had nothing to play for, they still took LSU to the wire. They played their guts out. I respect that.

Look at it this way, if the injury accounted for a 20% drop, we could reasonably expect Allen to throw for 70% this year, provided he remains healthy. If Allen throws for 70% this season, I will film myself eating my own feces.

That's not a picture I want to have in my mind.

All that said, the injury was a signficant factor last year. The committment of the WR's was as well in my mind.

BA bottomed out vs. Alabama with 28% completions. But keep in mind that 41.7% of those completions were to TE's and only 15.4% were to WR's.

It started going up from there, 30% to TE's and 52.9% to WR's vs. Auburn, 63.6% to TE's and 52.4% to WR's vs. Ole Miss, 62.5% to TE's and 55.6% to WR's vs. Miss State, and then finally, 72.7% to TE's and 61.1% to WR's vs. LSU.

Allen's injury not only affected his ability to throw and who to throw to, but his confidence in being able to do so. If you don't feel confident that you can make a particular throw, you probably can't. The body often emulates that which the mind tells you that you can do, or can't do.

If BA is healed physically as well as mentally (with regard to his abilities), he could average 65% completions provided his receivers fearlessly run their routes with discipline and don't short-arm balls in traffic.

Only time will tell.

[HogFanatic]

That's not a picture I want to have in my mind.

All that said, the injury was a signficant factor last year. The committment of the WR's was as well in my mind.

BA bottomed out vs. Alabama with 28% completions. But keep in mind that 41.7% of those completions were to TE's and only 15.4% were to WR's.

It started going up from there, 30% to TE's and 52.9% to WR's vs. Auburn, 63.6% to TE's and 52.4% to WR's vs. Ole Miss, 62.5% to TE's and 55.6% to WR's vs. Miss State, and then finally, 72.7% to TE's and 61.1% to WR's vs. LSU.

Allen's injury not only affected his ability to throw and who to throw to, but his confidence in being able to do so. If you don't feel confident that you can make a particular throw, you probably can't. The body often emulates that which the mind tells you that you can do, or can't do.

If BA is healed physically as well as mentally (with regard to his abilities), he could average 65% completions provided his receivers fearlessly run their routes with discipline and don't short-arm balls in traffic.

Only time will tell.

Well I wouldn't post it here. That would probably go on a pay-to-view type site.

...By the way, how much money you think those two girls made? HAHA!

[HogFanatic]

Also, I'm sorta worried that the Alabama game two years ago has like scarred Allen.
It probably would have me. 28% is pretty bad

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Also, I'm sorta worried that the Alabama game two years ago has like scarred Allen.
It probably would have me. 28% is pretty bad

You aren't seeing the forest, for the trees.

[HogFanatic]

You aren't seeing the forest, for the trees.

Well, we are both speculating.
All I was saying is that 28% isn't very good, all things considered.

He took a flippin' pounding in that first game. I imagine it was like a lamb thrown to the wolves, literally. All I was saying is that I wonder if that played on his psyche last season.

[WILL CLINTON]

On Bama, they've just got too much talent. You have to have consecutive top recruiting classes to even think about. Top 10 classes each of the last 4 or so years? LSU, UGA, Auburn, UF ... (Florida is my surprise team in the SEC this year)

The top class 5 out of 6 years according to Steve Spurrier.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Well, we are both speculating.
All I was saying is that 28% isn't very good, all things considered.

He took a flippin' pounding in that first game. I imagine it was like a lamb thrown to the wolves, literally. All I was saying is that I wonder if that played on his psyche last season.

I don't think it did, but consider this, you get pounded as a RS freshman vs. Alabama, you suffer a separated shoulder in the third series of the game against USM last year, miss the Rutgers game and come back too early vs. A&M and though you make a valiant effort with a separated shoulder, you start the second half with an INT that is returned for a TD that puts A&M up by 11 when the game was previously close by 4 points. Pretty doggone discouraging, taking the wind out of the sails of both Allen and our team as a whole.

After that, the defense wears out as Sumlin chose not to throw but to run, knowing that our front four were worn down.

End of story.

It was all down hill from there as not only did a fragile BA lack confidence, but so did the rest of our team. Down we go to Florida, S. Carolina and Alabama in succession. This, was crisis of confidence. We were better than that. Might have lost all of those games, but after Florida, confidence was at an all time low, which is what accounted for those scores vs. S. Carolina and Alabama.

I think and I hope, that the team sees things differently this season.

[LRRandy]

I don't think it did, but consider this, you get pounded as a RS freshman vs. Alabama, you suffer a separated shoulder in the third series of the game against USM last year, miss the Rutgers game and come back too early vs. A&M and though you make a valiant effort with a separated shoulder, you start the second half with an INT that is returned for a TD that puts A&M up by 11 when the game was previously close by 4 points. Pretty doggone discouraging, taking the wind out of the sails of both Allen and our team as a whole.

After that, the defense wears out as Sumlin chose not to throw but to run, knowing that our front four were worn down.

End of story.

It was all down hill from there as not only did a fragile BA lack confidence, but so did the rest of our team. Down we go to Florida, S. Carolina and Alabama in succession. This, was crisis of confidence. We were better than that. Might have lost all of those games, but after Florida, confidence was at an all time low, which is what accounted for those scores vs. S. Carolina and Alabama.

I think and I hope, that the team sees things differently this season.

crisis of confidence? Brought on by crisis of being out manned, out coached ( yet another fake punt) and just plain not up to the task. What a rationalization. Sheesh. They didn't appear to be better than that.

[EulessHog]

It's hard to think 9 wins this year. Breaking the schedule into three segments, I see Auburn as a loss by 21, Nicholls St a win by 35, and Texas Tech is a toss up, NIU- I'll pick the Hogs by 10 and Texas A&M (I'm going to this game) is a toss up.  So we are now (w)2-(l)1-(t)2 for this segment.

We come back from a week off to get beat by Alabama by 35, followed by a loss to Georgia in Little Rock by a touchdown, then we'll beat UAB by 35 and Mississippi State is another toss up.  We go (w)1-(l)2-(t)1 in the middle of the season.

After the last week off we get beat by LSU by 21, Ole Miss is another toss up and Missouri is another toss up.  Finishing up at (w)0-(l)1-(t)2

So, I see 2 or 3 sure wins, four certain losses and five games as toss ups.  Figure we win around half of the toss ups and you come out to five wins.  I would be ecstatic to get bowl eligible. This is optimistic.

If we do become bowl eligible, we'll stand a good chance of winning that game- whoever its against. 

[hawgbawb]

The rose colored glasses always come out in July and August. Then in October reality usually sets in.

I would be happy with 5 wins, given our schedule, and no blowouts. That is solid improvement.

[PonderinHog]

I'll be happy with four wins, but I'll be pissed after eight losses.

[bennyl08]

Dude, with the Auburn stuff.  If you're predicting Arkansas to go 7-5, 8-4, 9-3 or 10-2
.... Don't you think it will be to the "2nd best team in the SEC, per Media"
Top two teams in the SEC are Bama & Auburn. A sane person would pencil in a loss for those two even if you picked the Hogs to go 10-2.

If you were going to upset one of those two teams, 1. you'd want them early & hope they're breaking in a new QB or something (Bama). 2. You'd want them at home.

Auburn has none of that. They led the NATION in rushing last year and now have a Heisman contender QB to go along with the SECs best WRs (per ESPN).

On Bama, they've just got too much talent. You have to have consecutive top recruiting classes to even think about. Top 10 classes each of the last 4 or so years? LSU, UGA, Auburn, UF ... (Florida is my surprise team in the SEC this year)

I think we go 7-5 this season, but that post signifies what has to happen to get wins. I could just as easily make a post detailing why we lose to the teams on our schedule, and it would likely be even longer. That said, I think Auburn got really lucky last season in many games. You beat us fair and square, but it wasn't a blowout. Plus, you lost your best RB and OL player and by far your best playmaker on defense, as well as the guy expected to replace Ford. I would bet that Prescott finishes better than Marshall and I am a lot more concerned about Georgia than Auburn.

[OahuHawg]

Not focusing on the number. If we are competitive in every game including those with the powerhouses, then it will be a vast improvement. Losing isn't fun, but its better than being downright humiliated. 3-9 is not a good season but not necessarily unacceptable. It just depends on the circumstances. Those 52-0 blowouts with players quitting in the 3rd quarter are unacceptable IMO.

[cosmodrum]

Here's what's tough; you need to win the games you're supposed to win. Look at the schedule and honestly tell yourself which games we are SUPPOSED to win. That number is 3; maybe 4.

I think we'll win a 1-3 games more than that, but who knows. That's not all on Bret, either. Our division is getting better. So are we, but because of Bobby and the JLS year, we are severely behind.

It's going to be slower than we want. We've been through 2 BRUTAL years. Bret might not be the guy that gets us to THE place we want to be, but he's certainly getting the ship back on course. No matter what, he'll leave us better than he found us.

[bennyl08]

Here's what's tough; you need to win the games you're supposed to win. Look at the schedule and honestly tell yourself which games we are SUPPOSED to win. That number is 3; maybe 4.

I think we'll win a 1-3 games more than that, but who knows. That's not all on Bret, either. Our division is getting better. So are we, but because of Bobby and the JLS year, we are severely behind.

It's going to be slower than we want. We've been through 2 BRUTAL years. Bret might not be the guy that gets us to THE place we want to be, but he's certainly getting the ship back on course. No matter what, he'll leave us better than he found us.

The games you are supposed to win is a dynamic function, though. Right now, the only games we should win are UAB, Nicholls, and likely NIU. Other teams could do worse than expected/injuries changing perceptions of them. Winning TTU would improve our team standing, while beating Auburn or the aggies would change who we should beat as well.

[Augustus]

The games you are supposed to win is a dynamic function, though. Right now, the only games we should win are UAB, Nicholls, and likely NIU. Other teams could do worse than expected/injuries changing perceptions of them. Winning TTU would improve our team standing, while beating Auburn or the aggies would change who we should beat as well.

As you state, who we should beat is dynamic. But not only from game to game, but season to season...

I am thinking (and hoping) this will be a very different team than that of last year.  Does that mean 9 wins? HELL to the NO. Not even 8 or 7. But still a dramatically improved team.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

crisis of confidence? Brought on by crisis of being out manned, out coached ( yet another fake punt) and just plain not up to the task. What a rationalization. Sheesh. They didn't appear to be better than that.

Well, that is YOUR personal reality which may not have anything to do with ACTUAL reality. Hopefully the sun will come up this morning for you.

[LRRandy]

Well, that is YOUR personal reality which may not have anything to do with ACTUAL reality. Hopefully the sun will come up this morning for you.

or renaming actual reality a crisis of confidence. You go ahead and put lipstick on that pig. It's still a pig. Your research and analyzation of numbers is to be respected.  It is clear to everyone you have a passion for the razorbacks and a talent for breaking down numbers as they pertain to football. It's when you step away from numbers and turn psychologist/apologist (managing expectations. Egg sucking, crisis of confidence) that damages your credibility. Name it what you want to name it. Make excuses. Last years team was bad. Historically bad. Not just because of a crisis of confidence. This years team has to be better.  Focus on that.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

or renaming actual reality a crisis of confidence. You go ahead and put lipstick on that pig. It's still a pig. Your research and analyzation of numbers is to be respected.  It is clear to everyone you have a passion for the razorbacks and a talent for breaking down numbers as they pertain to football. It's when you step away from numbers and turn psychologist/apologist (managing expectations. Egg sucking, crisis of confidence) that damages your credibility. Name it what you want to name it. Make excuses. Last years team was bad. Historically bad. Not just because of a crisis of confidence. This years team has to be better.  Focus on that.

Good morning LR. Things are rarely as bad or as good as we tend to think that they are. The reality exists somewhere in the middle.

[Quickdraw]

Brandon Allen completes 60% of his passes and averages 210+ yds a game passing  .  After breaking down every other position I really feel that it'll come down to QB play.  I don't think this team is as far behind as most think.  Quarterback play absolutely sank us last year, yet we were still in plenty of games against the big guys of SEC (LSU, Auburn, & Tex am).  Our lines should be stout, and we all know we have big time RB's.  My glasses may be Rosy but write it down  .  The defense should be good enough to keep us competitive.  Bring on the season (and criticism), I'm excited!

It will take a MIRACLE for Arkansas to go 9-3. And I do believe in MIRACLES.

[PurpleBullHog]

I would love only three things more:  10-2, 11-1, and an undefeated season!   :razorback:

[Murr]

I would love only three things more:  10-2, 11-1, and an undefeated season!   :razorback:

With all the turnover this off season in the SEC QB spots, the odds of us hitting those marks are much better, but it depends on how our  defense deals with the early HUNHs from Auburn and Tech and the improvements along the offensive line and QB play.

[OrvilleRedenporker]

Two reasons we will go bowling. 1. Our league is devoid of quarterbacks. This will help our young revamped defense.  2.  We will have one of the most potent rushing offenses in the country.  So better defense by default, good running game = success.

[hogcard1964]

Arkansas goes 9-3 if we win our bowl game.

[lefty08]

Am I the only one that feels we should be expected to beat tech? Not just this year but every year? Historically its been the case and we have a much better program in my mind. I see 4 games on this schedule we absolutely should win, not 3. NIU shouldnt even be close either. Look at their opponents and not just their record, its a team that doesnt deserve to be on the field with us, even at our worst (last year)

[PonderinHog]

Arkansas goes 9-3 if we win our bowl game.

Unpossible.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Am I the only one that feels we should be expected to beat tech? Not just this year but every year? Historically its been the case and we have a much better program in my mind. I see 4 games on this schedule we absolutely should win, not 3. NIU shouldnt even be close either. Look at their opponents and not just their record, its a team that doesnt deserve to be on the field with us, even at our worst (last year)

I am not going to make a statement like "we should beat Tech every year". There are times that they are better than others and you know that thing about "any given Saturday". If we have improved as many believe on both sides of the ball, yes, we should win.

N. Illinois has lost quite a lot from last years team, especially on defense. You can see that by looking at the NIU thread where I posted their depth chart. Yes, we should win that game as well, barring any key injuries.

We are a fragile team right now in my opinion. Not just for lack of quality experienced depth at some positions, but because we haven't learned how to win in this particular system.

I'd like to see us at 3-1 after the NIU game. I'd love 4-0 and we have a chance to do that in my opinion, but realistically, I'd be tickled with 3-1.

[hogcard1964]

Unpossible.

Huh?

[lefty08]

I know we wouldnt beat them "every year", but i think we should be expected to. I guess my "low" expectations for this team stop at worrying whether or not we should beat a team of NIU's caliber. 2 bad seasons didnt make us Jonesboro St. Seems in some peoples opinions on here it did just that

[PonderinHog]

Huh?

Do the math.

[hogcard1964]

I know we wouldnt beat them "every year", but i think we should be expected to. I guess my "low" expectations for this team stop at worrying whether or not we should beat a team of NIU's caliber. 2 bad seasons didnt make us Jonesboro St. Seems in some peoples opinions on here it did just that

I don't care if NIU is 11-0 going into the final week of the season and we're 3-8, we should thump their arses.

[ricepig]

Do the math.

He's counting on a hurricane to cancel a game.

[hogcard1964]

Do the math.

Correction  9-4

[buffaload]

We'll probably get blown out in several games this year but if we get a few lucky bounces I can see us going into the Mizzou game with a bowl appearance on the line.