Breaking Down the Athletics/Cubs Trade

[ucahogfan]

I know this should probably be put in the MLB forum, but it rarely sees much traffic and this is a huge trade.

The Trade

Oakland Receives
Jeff Samardzija
Jason Hammel

Chicago Receives
Addison Russell - #11 Overall Prospect on MLB.com
Billy McKinney - 1st round pick in 2013
Dan Straily
Player to be named later

Trade Analysis

I think this is a win-win for both organizations given their respective situations. 

Oakland is in a win-now mode and get two excellent starting pitchers to go alongside Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir.  That is a great starting rotation to go along with the best offense in the AL.  I think they might now be the favorites to win the World Series.  They have separated themselves from the rest of the pack IMO in a year where there is a lot of parity at the top.

The Cubs are run by one of the best minds in the game right now in Theo Epstein.  They clearly didn't need another SS prospect with Starlin Castro on the big team right now and top 10 prospect Javier Baez at SS in AAA.  Russell gives them the best collection of SS prospects maybe in the history of baseball if you still include an under 25 Castro as a prospect.  Theo feels that Castro, Baez, and Russell are athletic enough to play another position other than SS.  If Castro is indeed the SS of the future for Chicago, the Cubs could move Baez to 2B, but they have one of the top 2B prospects in baseball in Arismendy Alcantara.  Baez or Russell could be moved to 3B, but the Cubs Kris Bryant there who is going all Miggy on the minor leagues and has shown scouts this year that he is good enough defensively to stay there.  They could move them to corner OF, but the Cubs have the #41 prospect in the game in RF in Jorge Soler (if he can stay healthy) and the #4 pick in the 2014 draft in Kyle Schwarber who they have projected to play corner OF.  The Cubs lineup in 2016/7 could look like this:

C - Wellington Castillo
1B - Anthony Rizzo
2B - Javier Baez
SS - Starlin Castro
3B - Kris Bryant
LF - Kyle Schwarber
CF - Albert Almora
RF - Jorge Soler or Addison Russell

That would be a nasty lineup to run out there on a daily basis.  With a team friendly contract, the Cubs could probably see a huge return for Castro if they feel Baez and Russell will be a better player.  Even though the Cubs now have the best farm system, they have a lack of premium arms in their farm system.  The Cubs did a fantastic draft in terms of getting highly projectable high school arms in LHP Carson Sands, LHP Justin Steele, and RHP Dylan Cease while getting a solid back-end of the rotation type arm in RHP Jake Stinnett.  Trading away their two best arms means that they will probably have a top 3 pick in the 2015 draft and should pick from either Duke RHP Mike Matuella or Virginia LHP Nathan Kirby.  The Cubs are set up to be in a great situation at the end of this decade.

[Baseball Hog]

I hate the trade from the oakland perspective.  The only thing you get out of it is rotation depth.  Rotation depth is nice, but they were going to win their division most likely any way.  Does this trade really make them that much better of a postseason team?

I'm not ultra-high on Russell.  I'm not convinced he'll be a good hitter at the next level.  Although the glove is spectacular.  Regardless, I fully expect the Cubs to flip him to another club.

[PorkRyan]

Baez is the one that is expected to move to RF. I watched Russell play vs the Naturals the night before the trade.  He made 3 plays that night that the average MLB SS does not make. Looked like a bigger Ozzie Smith.

You have to expect the Cubs to trade one of the SS's for an arm.  The Mets seem like the perfect trade companion.

[ucahogfan]

I hate the trade from the oakland perspective.  The only thing you get out of it is rotation depth.  Rotation depth is nice, but they were going to win their division most likely any way.  Does this trade really make them that much better of a postseason team?

I think Beane is wanting that ring this year and is doing anything possible to try and make that happen.  Adding two very good arms to the rotation should help them a lot and gives them arms to get close to matching the Tigers in terms of depth at the top.

I'm not ultra-high on Russell.  I'm not convinced he'll be a good hitter at the next level.  Although the glove is spectacular.  Regardless, I fully expect the Cubs to flip him to another club.

As a Braves fan, you should be able to appreciate an elite defender at SS and what it means to a team.  A great defensive SS could be much more valuable to a team that a good offensive and defensive SS in terms of WAR.  Plus, the Cubs will already have offense up and down their lineup and could use the plus defender at SS.  According to his mlb.com prospect profile, he could hit for average and hit for power.  He has 60 tools on both.

Baez is the one that is expected to move to RF. I watched Russell play vs the Naturals the night before the trade.  He made 3 plays that night that the average MLB SS does not make. Looked like a bigger Ozzie Smith.

You have to expect the Cubs to trade one of the SS's for an arm.  The Mets seem like the perfect trade companion.

I've never seen Russell play, but it sounds like he will be a great defender.

I had a thought this morning and the Mets might be the one team who would go for it.  The Mets have the #10 prospect in the game in Noah Syndergaard who profiles as an ace and is what the Cubs are lacking.  If the Cubs like Russell better than Castro, the Cubs could float Castro and his team friendly contract in front of the Mets for Syndergaard.

[PorkRyan]

I've never seen Russell play, but it sounds like he will be a great defender.

Usually before we go to a minor league game I always look up the prospects, but this was a last minute deal and I just sat there and watched it without knowing anything about the Rockhounds.  By the 2nd inning it was obvious the SS was spectacular.  I had to get out my phone and look him up.  He caught a ball in LF that should have been a routine ball for the LF, but he made it look routine from SS.  He fielded a ball on the 1B side of the back grass of 2B that appeared to be an easy hit off the bat, and threw the runner out with ease.  it was just one game, but Russell looked incredible defensively.   

Rockhounds have a CF named Billy Burns that is Billy Hamilton fast.  He beat out a routine ball to SS, then was standing on 3rd in 2 pitches.  Was also great in CF.  He is only about 5'9 though and doesn't hit very well, but he was fun to watch.     

[dotnet]

of all the cubs prospects, Bryant will go to the OF before Baez.  And Baez before Russell.  Theo said as much. 

Russell is a smooth SS with nice hands (by all accounts)... but no one who follows prospects or scouting has ever called him ozzie smith or even a "defensive short stop".  Not even close.  He is rated a top 5(ish) prospect in all of baseball due to his bat.  His fielding is a net positive, but he is no Lindor. 

The cubs could trade one of them for a bat... or they could just have a very athletic team that plays excellent defense and helps their average pitching staff be better at run prevention.  Keep in mind they have half of their quality players because they've been able to find Hammel, Feldman, Travis Wood, etc.  They can still find pitching if they choose and sign Max Scherzer or something. 

If everyone develops (which NEVER happens), in 2017 the cubs will still have at least 3 prime years of control over the following MLB players:

1. Alcantara
2. Rizzo
3. Castro
4. Schwarber
5. Russell
6. Baez
7. Bryant
8. McKinney
9. Vogelbach
10. Soler
11. Almora

All of which are or were top 100 prospects.. and can only play 7 positions.  Someone will not develop or get traded for a catcher or pitcher. 

Plus, they'll all cost a total of probably 40 Million... so the cubs will have plenty to buy pitching/catching.  They could get three Greinke's if they wanted and still be under budget. 

[ucahogfan]

With this trade, one thing to look at is the David Price situation.  I think everyone would agree that Price is a better pitcher than Samardzija and Samardzija brought in a top 10 type prospect in Russell.  That makes it very expensive for Price now because he has another year of team control before becoming a FA.

Let's look at some potential landing spots for Price and what that team would have to give up to get him:

Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers have two excellent young hitters in SS/3B Corey Seager and OF Joc Pederson.  Both are top 30 prospects and the Dodgers would have to include one if not both of them in the deal.  Outside of them, the Dodgers have two pitchers in the top 100 in LHP Julio Urias and RHP Zach Lee.  One of those two would have to be in the potential deal as well IMO.  Getting two of Seager, Pederson, Urias, and Lee would be a good building block for Price, but probably not enough and the Dodgers would have to give up a couple more prospects.

Los Angeles Angels - Don't have the prospects to give the Rays for Price.  Would never get a deal done.

Milwaukee Brewers - See the Angels.

Toronto Blue Jays - I don't think the Rays will trade Price to a division rival, but they are one of the top teams with a need on the mound and the prospects to do it.  Any trade would probably have to include Aaron Sanchez and Jeff Hoffman when he becomes available to be traded, but they have the top prospect types the Rays would want.

[dotnet]

I don't think there is a direct correlation between Price and Smardzija. 

shark was traded with hammels which makes the acquisition less risky.  Looking at what the cubs got for Feldman and Malhom... you have to spread the return over both guys too.  Just the way that trades work and the inherent risk in 1 to 1 trades for front line starters... I am not sure that a Shark for Russell trade fits as well on either end. 

All that to say.. Shark didn't come alone.  Is 10-15M cheaper between this year and next, and has pitched better this year. 

David Price is the better pitcher... but the trades will be inherently different.  And if you take out the AL East (which the A's factored in) for the Rays... there are not that many pitching needing teams who have prospects that make you feel tingly. 

Are the Rays really going to deal price for Lucas Simms? 

Do the dodgers really want to give up stud position prospects to strengthen Grenkie, Kershaw, and Ryu?

Kyle Crick is good.. but he isn't the center piece in a CY Young trade to me. 

If you can get the Royals to give you Mondesi.. I guess that is something...

I'd be shocked if the Cardinals, Reds, or Pirates played ball.. and the brewers don't seem to have the horses to get a deal done either. 

[alwaysnextyear]

Cubs are cornering the market on power bats. It's a dead ball era where offense is tough to come by. They've been shuffling guys around so they can get them all on the field at the same time. Alcantara has been playing CF. Baez can play second and Bryant can easily lock down a corner OF spot. Couple more power arms will show up in the pen come September in Vizcaino and Rivero. Won't be long til the Cubs are pummeling everyone.

[Baseball Hog]

Won't be long til the Cubs are pummeling everyone.

Easy there tiger.

[ucahogfan]

I do think that teams will see a correlation between Samardzija and Price because they were the top two arms on the market this year.

Although the Cubs did deal both Hammel and Samardzija, the Athletics sent 3 players and a PTBNL in return.  I just think that the main prize for the Athletics is Samardzija while the main prize for the Cubs is Addison Russell.

The Rays aren't going to part with Price unless they get at least one prospect who could be a perennial All-Star as the main prospect in the deal.  I'm talking someone who is a top 30 prospect right now.  Not many teams in contention needing an arm right now have the top end prospect that the Rays would demand in return.  Sure Shark is cheaper than Price, but there is a reason for that.

If the Rays would deal to a division rival, both the Orioles and the Jays could use him down the stretch and have that premier prospect that would headline the return for the Rays.  The Orioles would have to include either Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausmann while the Jays would definitely have to include Aaron Sanchez.  The Rays could be very picky this year because Price has another year after this and the team who trades for him could get a comp pick if they don't re-sign him.

I think the Phillies should be another team that sells their veterans much like the Cubs and Rays.  The Phillies are a very old team with a weaker farm system that could use some serious re-tooling.  They do have players that teams would want such as Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee so they could really re-stock their farm system if done correctly.  I just don't think the Phillies will do that because their organization and fan base is very impatient and won't wait for their team to rebuild.  The Braves were a dominant organization in the 90s and early 2000s, but the bulk of that core of players left and it meant a few down years.  Those years allowed the Braves to re-stock their farm system and we are seeing the results right now with the best core of players under 30 in the game.

[alwaysnextyear]

Arrieta is the best pitcher on the Cubs staff. Thrilled they weren't able to resign Shark. I would assume they will make a play for Scherzer/Lester/Price this offseason with Alcantara and Bryant ready and Baez not far behind.

[ucahogfan]

I would assume they will make a play for Scherzer/Lester/Price this offseason with Alcantara and Bryant ready and Baez not far behind.

Price won't be a FA until next year so they would have to give up prospects to get him before 2015.  I could see them making a run at Lester with Theo's history with him and the fact that their young core will only cost them peanuts until about 2018 or so when they hit arbitration and even then it won't be horrible.

[alwaysnextyear]

Arismendy Alcantara has been called up while Darwin Barney is on paternity leave. Can't wait to see him. Wouldn't surprise me if they sent Lake back down.

[dotnet]

Arrieta is the best pitcher on the Cubs staff. Thrilled they weren't able to resign Shark. I would assume they will make a play for Scherzer/Lester/Price this offseason with Alcantara and Bryant ready and Baez not far behind.

I go back and forth on what I think would be best.  Getting Price or Scherzer would be nice, but the team will not really compete until 2016. Pitchers are so fickle, I don't know that I would want to pay that front line price for a pitcher when I know it will only marginally benefit me in the first year.

At the same time, this may be the cheapest that front line pitcher will ever be.  They may not have a protected first round pick after the 2015 season.  A 30 year old starter doesn't overly excite me though - when you're really needing him from ages 31-35. 

At the same time, giving up say... Castro for Wheeler or Synregadrdish and then signing Scherzer makes the front of your rotation look pretty legit really quickly without costing you too much in terms of offense - assuming the prospects work out. 

[alwaysnextyear]

I go back and forth on what I think would be best.  Getting Price or Scherzer would be nice, but the team will not really compete until 2016. Pitchers are so fickle, I don't know that I would want to pay that front line price for a pitcher when I know it will only marginally benefit me in the first year.

At the same time, this may be the cheapest that front line pitcher will ever be.  They may not have a protected first round pick after the 2015 season.  A 30 year old starter doesn't overly excite me though - when you're really needing him from ages 31-35. 

At the same time, giving up say... Castro for Wheeler or Synregadrdish and then signing Scherzer makes the front of your rotation look pretty legit really quickly without costing you too much in terms of offense - assuming the prospects work out.

I'm torn also. But Arrieta/Scherzer/trade for other TOR rotation talent would make them a WS candidate in 2016. Not to mention if CJ Edwards can come back healthy he has TOR stuff. I just feel like Castro doesn't really fit with what the front office wants. And with Baez improving his plate discipline, I don't see them peddling him.

[ucahogfan]

I go back and forth on what I think would be best.  Getting Price or Scherzer would be nice, but the team will not really compete until 2016. Pitchers are so fickle, I don't know that I would want to pay that front line price for a pitcher when I know it will only marginally benefit me in the first year.

At the same time, this may be the cheapest that front line pitcher will ever be.  They may not have a protected first round pick after the 2015 season.  A 30 year old starter doesn't overly excite me though - when you're really needing him from ages 31-35. 

At the same time, giving up say... Castro for Wheeler or Synregadrdish and then signing Scherzer makes the front of your rotation look pretty legit really quickly without costing you too much in terms of offense - assuming the prospects work out.

Yeah, I think the Cubs need to make a run at Scherzer because they have deep pockets without much a whole lot to spend with a young team.  They could give Scherzer a 7/175 type deal like Hernandez, Verlander, and Tanaka (+ plus posting fee) have gotten over the last couple of years.  That would give them the TOR starter they lack and a veteran presence in a club house that will be young in 2016 or so.

The other big name on the FA market this offseason might be Jon Lester, but I think he stays in Boston.  The Cubs with Theo could be a serious contender though.  He wouldn't cost as much as Scherzer.

And yep, signing a TOR starter this offseason will probably only cost them a 2nd round pick instead of losing 1st round picks in the future.

I think Castro is definitely the player the Cubs should move based on a few facts:

-  Castro is still relatively young at 24 and will be playing in his 2nd ASG.
-  The Cubs have 2 of the top 4 SS prospects in baseball with Russell and Baez.
-  Castro is signed to a very team friendly contract.

Castro could definitely be the type of player to move to the Mets because he could probably bring back either Syndergaard or Wheeler in return and would give them another young premium arm who projects as a TOR arm.

I also think Mike Olt is expendable with Kris Bryant pretty much a lock to win POTY in the minors, but his .150 average at 25 won't bring them much.  Maybe a 3/4 type arm like Pierce Johnson projects to be.

[jbell96]

Good article breaking down the trade.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/oakland-athletics-chicago-cubs-trade-jeff-samardzija-jason-hammel-addison-russell/

This tidbit shocked me and easily explains why Oakland made the trade.

"A's starters had posted a 5.93 ERA in the last two trips through the rotation, from June 22 to July 2."

[dotnet]

i do not think Scherzer is worth 25 million a year.  wow.  Paying a guy 75 million after hes age 35 just seems nuts with pitching injuries these days. 

Thats more than Felix Hernandez makes. 

[ucahogfan]

i do not think Scherzer is worth 25 million a year.  wow.  Paying a guy 75 million after hes age 35 just seems nuts with pitching injuries these days. 

Thats more than Felix Hernandez makes. 

Yeah, I don't think Scherzer is worth 25 a year (more like 17-18), but he will probably get 25 a year because of his raw stuff.

[jackflash]

Being a Met fan I can't see them trading Syndergaard. With Harvey and Wheeler will give three pitchers for next. They have a started on staff they may move. Playing Reynolds at shortstop in the minors, he hitting .330.