2014 First Year Player Draft

[PorkRyan]

Recently we have lost the following high school players to the draft.


2012:

D'Vone McClure(4th round Indians)

Buttrey and Stankiewicz weren't real surprises being big arms and early rounds but losing McCall and McClure who were big bats we needed since we already had pitching hurt us really bad plus they later rounds especially McCall. McClure was from Jacksonville, AR but in the end the home state didn't matter compared to the Indians checkbook.

Was McClure considered that big of a bat?  I thought the deal with him was his potential.  His minor league stats are awful. 

[SPAL]

And the Kirby is a top 5 type pick next year.  They probably have 6-7 1st round type picks on that team.

And still , people were raising havoc because we lost to them.

[ucahogfan]

It looks like the Cubs are going to take some signing risks with their lower picks.  Selected Kyle Schwarber #4 overall and Jake Stinnett #45 overall who is a senior.  Definitely should be on the lookout from here on out.

[ucahogfan]

And still , people were raising havoc because we lost to them.

I'm convinced we could lose to a MLB team and still some people would gripe.

[SPAL]

Jacob Lindgren LHP from miss st. taken (55)to the Yankees.

[bulldog04]

It looks like the Cubs are going to take some signing risks with their lower picks.  Selected Kyle Schwarber #4 overall and Jake Stinnett #45 overall who is a senior.  Definitely should be on the lookout from here on out.

It's the Cubs man.  They don't know what they are doing

[ucahogfan]

It's the Cubs man.  They don't know what they are doing

I wouldn't be too sure about that anymore with Theo running the show.

Schwarber probably has a 60-65 power grade and will probably only have the 4th or 5th most power in that system.  That offense is going to be potent in a couple of years.

[ucahogfan]

Jacob Lindgren LHP from miss st. taken (55)to the Yankees.

Filthy, filthy slider.  Struck out 100 in 55.0 IP this year.  That's Craig Kimbrel territory.

[SPAL]

Filthy, filthy slider.  Struck out 100 in 55.0 IP this year.  That's Craig Kimbrel territory.

Ridiculous

[ucahogfan]

The Tigers select Alabama RHP Spencer Turnbull with the 63rd overall pick.

[Waldron_Hog]

California high school baseball is frickin loaded with talent.

[ucahogfan]

The last pick of the first round is Jack Flaherty out of the LA area in California.  He is a RHP who doesn't have electric stuff, but the best command in high school.  He is a UNC commit with a supposed price tag of 2.5 M.  The Cards selected him.

He could develop into a top of the rotation type guy with the proper development which is expected in the Cardinals farm system.

To built on this, the Cards selected UC Irvine Senior RHP Andrew Morales presumably to save some money to sign Flaherty.  He is worthy of a 2nd round pick, but it is a good way to save money.

[ucahogfan]

With the 74th overall pick and final selection of Day 1, the Seattle Mariners select Toronto HS OF Gareth Morgan.

No Hogs or signees selected on Day 1.

[Baseball Hog]

Unscathed through day 1.  Lets hope we don't hear some familiar recruit names for a few hours tomorrow.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

Looking good so far!

[ucahogfan]

The losers in college of Day 1 in the draft:

North Carolina (6) - Braxton Davidson, Forrest Wall, Cameron Varga, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, Joe Gatto

Vanderbilt (4) - Touki Toussaint, Justus Sheffield, Cody Reed, Isan Diaz

Florida State (2) - Nick Gordon, Sean Reid-Foley

Oregon (2) - Alex Jackson, Derek Hill

Arizona State (3) - Marcus Wilson, Alex Verdugo, Ryan Castellani

UCLA (2) - Brady Aiken, Grant Hockin

Ole Miss (2) - Foster Griffin, Ti'quan Forbes

Only 3 teams in the top 10 according to PG didn't have a signee drafted today: LSU (6), Arkansas (9), and Oregon State (10).

[jry04]

Mississippi State's top recruit was drafted today, so that is good news.

[Kevin]

Good first day. Hope it continues

[Break & Run]

AJ Reed going to Houston is huge! I'm a big Astros fan, wishing they'd speed up the rebuilding they've been doing the last 6 years. Lol

[Oklahawg]

UCA, a hit o' the hat. You do fantastic work with baseball.

[PurpleBullHog]

It's the Cubs man.  They don't know what they are doing

So long as they don't take Keyshawn Johnson they should be alright. 

[dotnet]

I agree with uca... The cubs will probably take some long shots with picks 8-13... And hope to sign three of them. They'll have a ton of slot money left.

Hopefully they take lsu signees instead of arkansas.

[Razorhawg09]

Cubs are gonna try for Bukauskus I bet. FO has a strategy of cornering the market on power bats and Schwarber adds to that. That offense is gonna be filthy once Bryant, Baez and Soler show up.

[Kevin]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-draft-assigned-pick-values-for-top-10-rounds/

Slot money

[ucahogfan]

Cubs are gonna try for Bukauskus I bet. FO has a strategy of cornering the market on power bats and Schwarber adds to that. That offense is gonna be filthy once Bryant, Baez and Soler show up.

Bukauskas does seem like the ultimate prize left.  94-98 MPH fastball topping at 100 means he has the potential to be a front-line starter which is something that the Cubs lack.  He is also supposed to be a junior in high school and doesn't turn 18 until October so he is the youngest player in his class this year.  The Cubs could take more time to develop him and develop his off speed which are lagging behind his fastball.  He re-classified to get to North Carolina a year earlier, but saw the velo bump.  He told scouts that he wants to go to school, but I think the Cubs could put together an enticing package.  Let's assume they take him with their 3rd round pick:

Schwarber's slot value - $4,621,200
Stinnett's slot value - $1,250,400
3rd Round slot value - $714,900

I think they can sign Schwarber for 3.1 M as the next highest he was projected to go was #10 to the Mets.  They save 1.5 M on that pick.  I think they sign Stinnett for no more than 250 K to save at least 1 M on that pick.  That is 2.5 M saved from their first 2 picks IMO.  Add that to 750 K and you can offer Bukauskas 3.25 M with ease.  Does anyone honestly believe he will turn down top 10 money?  Not saying it will happen, but it makes a lot of sense.

And the Cubs will have a scary collection of power bats.  Bryant and Baez both have a 70 power tool which is like 3 and 4 in the minors behind Sano of the Twins and Gallo of the Rangers while Soler and Schwarber both have a 65 power tool.

[ucahogfan]

I agree with uca... The cubs will probably take some long shots with picks 8-13... And hope to sign three of them. They'll have a ton of slot money left.

Hopefully they take lsu signees instead of arkansas.

I really hope the hypothetical situation I threw out in my last post is what happens.  It would make me feel better.

LSU does have a couple of high level players signed out of Illinois this year so the Cubs could target the home-grown guys.

[ucahogfan]

MLB Draft Day 2 Preview

Rounds 3-10 will take place via conference call today and can be heard on mlb.com.  It should be somewhat quick fire because that is how the MLB likes to conduct their draft.  I think we get our 40 rounds done quicker than the NFL gets their 7 rounds done.

Last night was the first time that the Hogs didn't have a player selected in the top 2 rounds since 2009.  It was a little shocking as both Chris Oliver and Brian Anderson could have come off the board, but neither did.  I think we see 3 Hogs come off the board today in those two and Jalen Beeks.  I would be shocked if any of those three are available after today and shocked if another Hog is selected in the top 10 rounds.

Last night was also the first time that the Hogs didn't have a signee selected in the top 2 rounds for the first time in a long time.  There is still a lot of money on the board if teams play their picks wisely.  Keaton McKinney, Luke Bonfield, Nathan Rodriguez, Sam Hentges, Jonah Patten, Blake Wiggins, and Keith Grieshaber are all potential options who could be drafted today.  I feel like if we get to Round 6 and none of these guys have been taken then I will breathe easier, but until then, it will be interesting.

Any time a Hog or a signee is picked it will be posted in the OP about where and when they were taken as well as it will more than likely be talked about among posters.

[dotnet]

Schwarber's slot value - $4,621,200
Stinnett's slot value - $1,250,400
3rd Round slot value - $714,900

I think they can sign Schwarber for 3.1 M as the next highest he was projected to go was #10 to the Mets.  They save 1.5 M on that pick.  I think they sign Stinnett for no more than 250 K to save at least 1 M on that pick.  That is 2.5 M saved from their first 2 picks IMO.  Add that to 750 K and you can offer Bukauskas 3.25 M with ease.  Does anyone honestly believe he will turn down top 10 money?  Not saying it will happen, but it makes a lot of sense.

I think very high 2s to 3.1 is a pretty good estimate for Shwarber.  I think Stinnett gets more than 250k though.  The cubs need him.  I know Stinnett has no leverage, but the cubs don't have that much either.  I think he at least gets 750k. 

But the cubs can also go $417,610 over their allottment without facing more than a cash penalty by MLB.  So at this point, assuming they give Stinnett $750k and Schwarber 3.1M, they would have 2.44M to spend over the slot value. 

Either way, I don't think they take him in the third round.  I think they would take him in the 9-11 round.  This way if they fail to sign him, they're not losing 700k of pool money. 

Bryant may be third in MLB in power - but his hit tool is also the most advanced, by far (as is his age).  Especially with recent call ups, Bryant is easily a top five prospect in all of baseball for me at this point.

[dotnet]

Unless its a team like the cubs.. and I think they're the only ones with THAT much money.. the 6th round is when I start to feel really good.  Until then... pins and needles

[Razorhawg09]

Alcantara and Lake won't be able to crack the starting lineup. Baez is still is a risk to me but that 40 homer power potential for a likely second baseman??

[ucahogfan]

I think very high 2s to 3.1 is a pretty good estimate for Shwarber.  I think Stinnett gets more than 250k though.  The cubs need him.  I know Stinnett has no leverage, but the cubs don't have that much either.  I think he at least gets 750k. 

But the cubs can also go $417,610 over their allottment without facing more than a cash penalty by MLB.  So at this point, assuming they give Stinnett $750k and Schwarber 3.1M, they would have 2.44M to spend over the slot value. 

Either way, I don't think they take him in the third round.  I think they would take him in the 9-11 round.  This way if they fail to sign him, they're not losing 700k of pool money. 

Bryant may be third in MLB in power - but his hit tool is also the most advanced, by far (as is his age).  Especially with recent call ups, Bryant is easily a top five prospect in all of baseball for me at this point.

Whoever the Cubs draft, they have plenty of money to spend.  They can definitely take some risks in the later rounds.

And Bryant was a monster in May in AA.  He hit over .400 for the month to go with plus power.  I think he will be manning the hot corner at Wrigley very soon.  I think the Astros are really going to regret passing up both Bryant and Gray for Appel last year.

Question now is, where do you put Baez with Arismendy Alcantra showing he can be a very good 2B?  Do you trade Castro and his contract to bring Baez and his 40+ HR power up and play SS?  By drafting Schwarber, the Cubs could have a monster of a lineup in 2017.

[ucahogfan]

Alcantara and Lake won't be able to crack the starting lineup. Baez is still is a risk to me but that 40 homer power potential for a likely second baseman??

There had been talk last year that Bryant could be shifted to LF and Baez to 3B, but it appears that Bryant is good enough defensively to stick at 3B.  I guess the Cubs could try and move Baez to LF with his 65 arm because both Soler and Almora have 65 arms as well.  This could be the potential lineup for the Cubs in 2017:

C - Schwarber - 30+ HR power
1B - Rizzo - 25+ HR power
2B - Alcantra - 5-10 HR power
SS - Castro - 15-20 HR power
3B - Bryant - 40+ HR power
LF - Baez - 40+ HR power
CF - Almora - 20+ HR power
RF - Soler - 30+ HR power

That is a nasty lineup full of power hitters.  It could be a perfect lineup for Wrigley.

[kennymayne]

I'm convinced we could lose to a MLB team and still some people would gripe.

We could beat the Yankees by one run and people would gripe that we bunted too much.

[ucahogfan]

Top 10 players left on the board according to BA:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/best-available-players-for-day-2-of-draft/

[dotnet]

Baez would play third before Bryant.  Bryant has still made a lot of erros at 3b this year... even if he has shown the ability to play the position. 

At this point, Soler is still a decent risk since he can't stay healthy.  I think in a perfect world they trade castro to a team that really needs a short stop for a middle of the rotation arm.  Then you have a lot of options.  They have Villenuava who is a stud at third if he can hit enough.  They also have Mike Olt there now... who would hit 80 home runs a year if he could lower his K/rate to 50%. 

[Baseball Hog]

There are teams that are 100% off of McKinney due to signability.

[ucahogfan]

There are teams that are 100% off of McKinney due to signability.

Hopefully the Cubs are one of those teams.

[tennesseehogwild]

How far does the Dee Wee cause Oliver to fall in your guys opinion? I was really hoping he goes early today in 3rd.

[Razorhawg09]

Alcantara has been playing some CF. I think the plan is the shift Baez over to second. Or the FO could decide to peddle Castro for a good starting pitcher.

[dotnet]

How far does the Dee Wee cause Oliver to fall in your guys opinion? I was really hoping he goes early today in 3rd.

I wouldn't expect him to be around in the second half of the third round. 

[booogaga]

Hey UCA or anyone else in the know. For The couple of signees that we have that we might lose what is their rumored selling point. For instance if Luke gets drafted in the 4th round what type of bonus would he require to sign and not go to college.

[ucahogfan]

Hey UCA or anyone else in the know. For The couple of signees that we have that we might lose what is their rumored selling point. For instance if Luke gets drafted in the 4th round what type of bonus would he require to sign and not go to college.

Those types of numbers haven't been released to my knowledge.  The teams know, but none of our recruits have said it will take X amount of dollars for me to sign.  I think McKinney wants at least 2nd round money while Hentges wants at least 3rd round money.  Outside of that, I have no earthly idea.

[Brewerfan10]

Great thread, guys! I find myself contently refreshing the page on a slow Friday at work!

[Scott7703]

There are teams that are 100% off of McKinney due to signability.

That is great news. Hopefully Bonfield falls into this group as well.

[dotnet]

I expect anyone taken in the first 5 rounds to be gone

[booogaga]

Those types of numbers haven't been released to my knowledge.  The teams know, but none of our recruits have said it will take X amount of dollars for me to sign.  I think McKinney wants at least 2nd round money while Hentges wants at least 3rd round money.  Outside of that, I have no earthly idea.

Then what rounds to these guys have to sink to for us to start feeling an inkling of excitement that the "might" make it to campus.

[Baseball Hog]

Hey UCA or anyone else in the know. For The couple of signees that we have that we might lose what is their rumored selling point. For instance if Luke gets drafted in the 4th round what type of bonus would he require to sign and not go to college.

I think McKinney has a pretty big number.  He seems like a guy that isn't flirting his college commit for leverage, I think the dude would really like to come to the Hill.  I have no clue on Bonfield or the other guys.

Main thing to hope for today, recruits falling and no picks by the Cubbies.

[Baseball Hog]

Then what rounds to these guys have to sink to for us to start feeling an inkling of excitement that the "might" make it to campus.

Honestly, I think as of now they all have a shot to make it to campus, even if they went in the 3rd (McKinney or Bonfield).  A more realistic look would be if they fall into the 5th or so you have to feel really good.

[booogaga]

Out of all the signees I want Bonfield to make it to campus the most. We need a bat. If we can get him to the hill and then add Wiggins. We will finally have some pop in our bats.

[Baseball Hog]

Out of all the signees I want Bonfield to make it to campus the most. We need a bat. If we can get him to the hill and then add Wiggins. We will finally have some pop in our bats.

Bonfield isn't going to hit for much power.  He's much more of a Zack Cox ish hitter.