Arkansas showed better in the draft than on the field

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Arkansas finished tied for 12th in players drafted.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/5/8/5697792/2014-nfl-draft-first-round-picks-schools-conferences-recruit-ratings

Also very interesting was that the average star ranking (247 composite) was 2.73 for drafted players.

[Theolesnort]

Shhh, hush, don't let our star gazers see that!

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Shhh, hush, don't let our star gazers see that!

lol

Only 17 5 stars were drafted compared to 48 that were not rated.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

lol

Only 17 5 stars were drafted compared to 48 that were not rated.

I guess you could counter with there were much fewer 5 stars than unrated players, so the percentage of success is much higher.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

I guess you could counter with there were much fewer 5 stars than unrated players, so the percentage of success is much higher.

That's exactly what you could say.

Also very interesting was that the average star ranking (247 composite) was 2.73 for drafted players.

Nothing odd about that at all. 

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Starting in a couple years, I bet we'll see that number be a couple higher, which is very good for our program.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

That's exactly what you could say.


Nothing odd about that at all. 

It also says that there are more guys available that haven't been accurately rated than those that were deemed 5 stars.

It also says that you should be capable of winning consistently with 3 star recruits.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Starting in a couple years, I bet we'll see that number be a couple higher, which is very good for our program.

Absolutely agree.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

It also says that there are more guys available that haven't been accurately rated than those that were deemed 5 stars.

It also says that you should be capable of winning consistently with 3 star recruits.

Of course, but the issue is in the percentages...the odds.  Which of the 3 stars are actually the underrated ones?  If a team is loading up on 4 stars every year and it has a competent coaching staff, then the odds of winning consistently at a high level are measurably greater than the same coaching staff doing it by loading up with 3 stars.

Saban is generally considered the best HC in college, but let's be honest, he wins 90% of his games simply by out talenting his competition.  And talent is priority #1 in college football.  We won't get Bama talent here, at least not in the same numbers, but we certainly have plenty of room and ability to upgrade.  It's already happening.

[Vantage 8 dude]

Of course, but the issue is in the percentages...the odds.  Which of the 3 stars are actually the underrated ones?  If a team is loading up on 4 stars every year and it has a competent coaching staff, then the odds of winning consistently at a high level are measurably greater than the same coaching staff doing it by loading up with 3 stars.

Saban is generally considered the best HC in college, but let's be honest, he wins 90% of his games simply by out talenting his competition.  And talent is priority #1 in college football.  We won't get Bama talent here, at least not in the same numbers, but we certainly have plenty of room and ability to upgrade.  It's already happening.

Point is you still have to be able to coach the talent and get the necessary production no matter what level of talent it's judged. The prime example is TexASS who, as everyone's aware, has been loaded year after year with-you guessed it-4 and 5 star players. How many were just drafted? The answer is a big fat ZERO. IMO the end result of whether it's talent or the coaching is like asking the old question of which comes first: the chicken or the egg? Seems to me BOTH have to be present to one degree or another to be able to maximize the potential of any player. Obviously having the elite talent only helps the coaches to start with. However, they still have to be able to develop and coax it out of the kid and it's been proven that sometimes they ain't going to happen. Personally I think we definitely have the staff in place to both coach up the talent AND improve its overall quality. Pretty hard to beat that combination as I certainly hope we'll see over the next several seasons. 

[Hollywood_HOGan45]

by the way,
We are ranked number TEN so far in 2015. We will have more coveted players in the next class than we have ever had in a class.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Point is you still have to be able to coach the talent and get the necessary production no matter what level of talent it's judged. The prime example is TexASS who, as everyone's aware, has been loaded year after year with-you guessed it-4 and 5 star players. How many were just drafted? The answer is a big fat ZERO. IMO the end result of whether it's talent or the coaching is like asking the old question of which comes first: the chicken or the egg? Seems to me BOTH have to be present to one degree or another to be able to maximize the potential of any player. Obviously having the elite talent only helps the coaches to start with. However, they still have to be able to develop and coax it out of the kid and it's been proven that sometimes they ain't going to happen. Personally I think we definitely have the staff in place to both coach up the talent AND improve its overall quality. Pretty hard to beat that combination as I certainly hope we'll see over the next several seasons. 

The point about coaching was made in my post. 

[stan the man]

If not mistaken most if not all 5 stars were selected in first Two rounds so stars obviously are a good indication of talent

[weresoclose]

Stars are absolutely the barometer.  Of course guys can be coached up... everywhere.  The incredibly disproportionate percentage of 5* players drafted won't sway those who can't understand basic math, though...

[weresoclose]

Just like NFL draft position is the most reliable barometer for NFL performance.

[Vantage 8 dude]

The point about coaching was made in my post.

Well excuse the heck out of moi! I'm sorry I disturbed your sense of peace and karma by merely expressing my own thoughts. I suppose in the future you'd like me to contact you ahead of time and have you review and approve my comments? I mean....if it will keep tranquility.

[12247]

Stars matter but good coaching, big heart and ambition matter more.  A five star with good coaching and great desire just cannot hardly fail where the non rated player with good coaching and huge desire still may not make the NFL

[Vantage 8 dude]

Stars are absolutely the barometer.  Of course guys can be coached up... everywhere.  The incredibly disproportionate percentage of 5* players drafted won't sway those who can't understand basic math, though...

So your statement can be "coached up.....everywhere" explains the lack of those high stars being drafted from a place like Texas how? That is since they can be coached up everywhere? Does that also imply the quality of the coaching makes little/any difference since you already have a 5 star? Otherwise what separates the difference between one staff (judged to be excellent) and one considered average assuming equal talent. BTW I fully comprehend the factor of the #s game in terms of the * rating system.

[The_Hog_Father]

by the way,
We are ranked number TEN so far in 2015. We will have more coveted players in the next class than we have ever had in a class.

Though I agree with you... According to 24/7 we fell to 16th place so far to this date--Today. But I am hopeful that we are going to land the Big In State Prospects and a few more big names to go with them. I think we will pop back up in the raking soon.

I definitely feel we are getting better assessments from our Coaching Staff and getting who we need (would love to see some big time LB's though) to fill in for depth and hopefully all that will also translate to a lower attrition rate as well.

We need this to work out for our Program regardless of which Coaching Splinter Cell fellow fans belong too...

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Stars are absolutely the barometer.  Of course guys can be coached up... everywhere.  The incredibly disproportionate percentage of 5* players drafted won't sway those who can't understand basic math, though...

Here's a good article on 5 star kids. About 44% make it to the NFL.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000320664/article/yearbyyear-look-at-fivestar-college-football-recruits

[Professor Psychosis]

by the way,
We are ranked number TEN so far in 2015. We will have more coveted players in the next class than we have ever had in a class.

Need to win enough to go bowling and show that we can be competitive into the 4th Quarter in our losses to show some of the in-state guys on the fence that the coaching staff can get it done.

This could be the season that opens our next 2-3 year championship window for 2015 and beyond.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Well excuse the heck out of moi! I'm sorry I disturbed your sense of peace and karma by merely expressing my own thoughts. I suppose in the future you'd like me to contact you ahead of time and have you review and approve my comments? I mean....if it will keep tranquility.

LOL!!  Dang, man.  My apologies for setting you off.  Not intended at all. 

[Pork Twain]

Statistical probabilities is all that it is.  I would never expect a Hogville poster to consider silliness like that before posting.  That and fans jumping to conclusions for no good reason.  Two of our guys drafted were a FB and a kicker...  Who was drafted and in what round they were drafted in does matter.  Lets all go thump our chests on a Texass board. 

If you actually want to make a point worth making, look at how many four and five star players there are a year versus how many players that are lower than that, that make it to a 4-yr college campus.  Then look at how many players are draft eligible versus how many are drafted and do a statistical comparison.  Anything less than that and all you are doing is saying hey stars don't matter durrr...

[Fayettechill14]

Statistical probabilities is all that it is.  I would never expect a Hogville poster to consider silliness like that before posting.  That and fans jumping to conclusions for no good reason. Two of our guys drafted were a FB and a kicker...  Lets all go thump our chests on a Texass board.

Bingo. Was hoping someone would notice this. Yes it's great to have 4 guys drafted, but it's not like that was disproportionate to our record.

[Pork Twain]

lol

Only 17 5 stars were drafted compared to 48 that were not rated.

Obviously you do not understand statistical probabilities very well or you would see that this actually is an lol against you, not for you.  Here are the simplest terms: I will give you a hint there are a little over 30 5* players a year and over half of them were drafted.  Now how many players ranked lower than a 3* were recruited and what percentage of them were drafted.

Simple stats say ~1 out every 2 5* players will be drafted.
What does DH say about unranked players?

This thread seems like an overly simple way to stir up issues that are not really there.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Obviously you do not understand statistical probabilities very well or you would see that this actually is an lol against you, not for you.

You expect way too much.

[stan the man]

Did anyone notice the lack
Of running backs drafted. Was it due to talent
Or lack of or does it have to do with the NFL relying
Much more on passing as evidence by all the receivers drafted. 

[Pork Twain]

Did anyone notice the lack
Of running backs drafted. Was it due to talent
Or lack of or does it have to do with the NFL relying
Much more on passing as evidence by all the receivers drafted. 

Set the record and was the primary topic of discussion for much of day two.  Most teams were set at RB and that is why CJ and MJD hung out there for so long.  That and there were not any RB's really even realistically in the running for the Heisman

[Dr Carl aka Shorthog]

Arkansas finished tied for 12th in players drafted.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2014/5/8/5697792/2014-nfl-draft-first-round-picks-schools-conferences-recruit-ratings

Also very interesting was that the average star ranking (247 composite) was 2.73 for drafted players.

But we have a talent deficiency

[Hogarusa]

Cool, another thread about stars

[root_hawg]

I live for the star threads...

[Pork Twain]

We would get more high star players if we wore black uniforms and never played any games in Little Rock

[Lake City Hog]

Actually the OP had nothing to do with stars or recruiting hits and misses. The OP like most other threads here morphed into an entirely different topic.

The OP seems to hint that we had more talent than our record from last season indicated. Couple the draft with the coaching changes that we saw in the off-season and it appears that the OP might just be right.

[Pork Twain]

Actually the OP had nothing to do with stars or recruiting hits and misses. The OP like most other threads here morphed into an entirely different topic.

The OP seems to hint that we had more talent than our record from last season indicated. Couple the draft with the coaching changes that we saw in the off-season and it appears that the OP might just be right.

Right...  Except that the OP did the morphing.  A 3, 5 and two 7's (kicker and FB) does not a stacked team make.

[Bubba's Bruisers]

Actually the OP had nothing to do with stars or recruiting hits and misses. The OP like most other threads here morphed into an entirely different topic.

The OP seems to hint that we had more talent than our record from last season indicated. Couple the draft with the coaching changes that we saw in the off-season and it appears that the OP might just be right.

Someone earlier reminded us that 2 of the 4 draftees were a FB and K.  That is at least somewhat telling.  I still say we're obviously talent deficient...especially on defense.  Heck, how many here suggested over and over again that our kicker was easily one of our best players last season.  A kicker.

[Pork Twain]

Humoring the OP:

Draft picks in the first three rounds
LSU   5
Alabama   3
Auburn   3
Texas A&M   3
Missouri   2
Mississippi State   1
Ole Miss   1
South Carolina   1
Arkansas   1

Based off of just this, our pick = to uSc's pick, because I mean just saying we had 4 picks in the draft means something significant.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/schools/_/letter/a/year/2014

[31to6]

But we have a talent deficiency

Yes, we do.

I think all four of those guys are great athletes and even greater young men. All of them have class and represent the program well, But the "best" player for us in terms of comparative draft performance is clearly Zach Hocker (since kickers are rarely even drafted at all). Swanson was 3rd Center taken out of 9 which is very good for a Center that is not expected to play multiple positions; Kiero was the 3rd FB (although listed as a RB)--again great for a FB to be drafted at all, but still not a high pick; Smith was the 11th DE.

Compare those to the impact that a Manziel+Evans tandem or a Greg Robinson+Tre Mason or even Mizzou's defensive picks had on their big games.

Let's look at next year's schedule:

Alabama - 8 with 2 1st rounders and 1 2nd.
LSU - 9!, with one 1st and three 2nd rounders

Auburn - *only* 4 picked, but two were 1st rounders and one was selected in the 3rd round. And they've been a dumpster fire for 2 years.
aTm - 3, but all 3 were 1st rounders, and their already good recruiting has become elite since joining the SEC.
Miz - 4, but 2 2nd rounders

Georgia - 2  (a very off year, Georgia is loaded with talent and typically there is more NFL talent on the roster in Athens than Fayetteville--which is one reason our record is so bad against them since joining the conference)
MSU - 1, a 3rd rounder

So we performed worse in the draft than all but 2 of our opponents (aTm's 3 first rounders clearly trumps our 4 players two of whom were drafted in the 7th--1st round NFL picks are game-breaking athletes at the college level and they had 3 on that offense).

We won't be Alabama or LSU in the draft, ever. They have quality PLUS quantity. But our best teams have been when we either had quantity (all the Petrino WR's and TE's) or exceptional quality (McFadden+Jones+Hillis).

[Tejano Jawg]

Here's a good article on 5 star kids. About 44% make it to the NFL.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000320664/article/yearbyyear-look-at-fivestar-college-football-recruits

Here's someone you might remember from the 09 Recruiting Class:
24. Arkansas CB Darius Winston: Undrafted.

[Piggfoot]

First, congratulations to our Razorbacks who were drafted. I don't think those  drafted came as any surprise to Hog fans. We all knew this team had some very good players that would have an opportunity to play on Sunday. But, as we know football is a team game and without rehashing our weakness it requires an overall good team and we didn't have it. To infer we were a better team  by the number of players we had drafted compared to a team that had fewer is false thinking. But false thinking and coming to erroneous conclusions based on this thinking is why there is so much disappointment at times.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

You expect way too much.

I think maybe I was expecting way too much by thinking there could be conversation without insults.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Bingo. Was hoping someone would notice this. Yes it's great to have 4 guys drafted, but it's not like that was disproportionate to our record.

Really? Wasn't it though? I think the number was disproportionate to our record. We had weapons in the form of a kicker and a fullback. Did we not use them enough?

[Pork Twain]

Really? Wasn't it though? I think the number was disproportionate to our record. We had weapons in the form of a kicker and a fullback. Did we not use them enough?

Not sure if serious

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Obviously you do not understand statistical probabilities very well or you would see that this actually is an lol against you, not for you.

Any time you want to throw down with statistics and probability just let me know.   

Also, I actually acknowledged and addressed exactly what you are trying to say a few posts after the OP. Heck, I even linked an article covering some of it.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Not sure if serious

Very.

[Pork Twain]

I think maybe I was expecting way too much by thinking there could be conversation without insults.

What was your intention behind this thread?

[Pork Twain]

Any time you want to throw down with statistics and probability just let me know.   

Also, I actually acknowledged and addressed exactly what you are trying to say a few posts after the OP. Heck, I even linked an article covering some of it.

I think I did and I hope your understanding of them is better than is shown in this thread.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Actually the OP had nothing to do with stars or recruiting hits and misses. The OP like most other threads here morphed into an entirely different topic.

The OP seems to hint that we had more talent than our record from last season indicated. Couple the draft with the coaching changes that we saw in the off-season and it appears that the OP might just be right.

You are correct on all counts.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

What was your intention behind this thread?

It was not started to be an argument over stars. Believe that.

I don't believe the team is as void of talent as what others do.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

I think I did and I hope your understanding of them is better than is shown in this thread.

If you think you did, then perhaps you should reflect.

I should sentence you to the Tree of Woe.

[Pork Twain]

It was not started to be an argument over stars. Believe that.

I don't believe the team is as void of talent as what others do.

This team is not void of talent but it had a several significant holes and lack of depth across the board.