Baseball America criticizes RPI, cites Arkansas

[bighog2255]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/rpi-analysis-requires-a-closer-look/

Great article. Crazy what eliminating the 3 MVSU games would do to our RPI

[jbell96]

Great article that pokes a ton of holes in the current RPI system.

[Razorbacks#1]

Good find and good read. Thanks

[ucahogfan]

Heck, it's crazy to think that we have played the toughest schedule in the nation if you take away those 5 games against SWAC teams.  Teams can game RPI in baseball just like teams in basketball game the RPI (Pittsburgh being the most prevalent).

Thanks for posting the link!

[JonClaudeVanHam]

UCA, BSking, myself, and a few others have been saying this for the last couple years and people just act like we're being unrealistic.

[Kevin]

i have always thought the rpi was crap

[hogman64]

UCA, BSking, myself, and a few others have been saying this for the last couple years and people just act like we're being unrealistic.

add me to that list........regardless if the rpi system is stupid or wrong or what, it is what it is and Van Horn knows how it works, scheduling these teams is RPI suicide.

[pigture perfect]

The author also took A shot at the U of A for not playing instate teams.

[dotnet]

Everyone has always agreed RPI was stupid.  The issue is people being upset that DVH schedules Grambling even still.  That where people always disagreed. 

[Baseball Hog]

RPI is for lazy people.  Watch games.  The fact that the selection committee even looks at it is embarrassing.

A simple solution to help the RPI: put a floor and a ceiling for any game.  IE Everything over 50 spots above and below you would be counted the same.

[bighog2255]

add me to that list........regardless if the rpi system is stupid or wrong or what, it is what it is and Van Horn knows how it works, scheduling these teams is RPI suicide.

Exactly

[jbell96]

add me to that list........regardless if the rpi system is stupid or wrong or what, it is what it is and Van Horn knows how it works, scheduling these teams is RPI suicide.

Did you read his quote in the article? He can't get anyone but those SWAC schools for those games.

[bulldog04]

Exactly

We have to play someone in the midweek games.  How else are the young pitchers going to get work?  How are young hitters going to see D1 pitching or get out of a slump.  It's ignorant to think we would be better off by not playing these midweek games.

[bighog2255]

We have to play someone in the midweek games.  How else are the young pitchers going to get work?  How are young hitters going to see D1 pitching or get out of a slump.  It's ignorant to think we would be better off by not playing these midweek games.

Of course we need to play midweek games. Just don't think we need to stoop all the way down to Grambling and MVSU. I know what DVH said, but I really doubt that's 100% truth

[bulldog04]

Of course we need to play midweek games. Just don't think we need to stoop all the way down to Grambling and MVSU. I know what DVH said, but I really doubt that's 100% truth

I really doubt DVH would schedule these teams knowing that it could keep his team out of postseason or keep them from hosting.  Maybe he wants a long summer and gets tired of playing in the postseason.  10 years is a long time so maybe he would like a summer off.

[ucahogfan]

I really doubt DVH would schedule these teams knowing that it could keep his team out of postseason or keep them from hosting.  Maybe he wants a long summer and gets tired of playing in the postseason.  10 years is a long time so maybe he would like a summer off.

It's been 15 years since his team has not reached the NCAA Tourney and he will also be the HC for Team USA this summer.

[bulldog04]

It's been 15 years since his team has not reached the NCAA Tourney and he will also be the HC for Team USA this summer.

That was sarcasm.  I can't believe people would insinuate DVH likes scheduling these weak teams.

[ucahogfan]

That was sarcasm.  I can't believe people would insinuate DVH likes scheduling these weak teams.

I got the sarcasm.  Just adding 5 years to your timeline.  DVH hasn't had a free summer from the NCAA tourney in this millennium,

[bulldog04]

I got the sarcasm.  Just adding 5 years to your timeline.  DVH hasn't had a free summer from the NCAA tourney in this millennium,

Gotcha

[Kenny Dowell Loggains]

RPI is for lazy people.  Watch games.  The fact that the selection committee even looks at it is embarrassing.

A simple solution to help the RPI: put a floor and a ceiling for any game.  IE Everything over 50 spots above and below you would be counted the same.

Winner ^^^^^ +1

Let's look at #24 Arkansas, #18 Indiana, #21 Oklahoma State, #22 Clemson, #19 Oregon, and UC-Santa Barbara.  As it stands today (4/23/2014), Arkansas is 7-7 vs top 25, Indiana is 2-1 vs top 25, OK ST is 0-0 vs top 25, Clemson is 2-7 vs top 25, Oregon is 1-5, and UCSB is 6-3 vs top 25.

If they want to claim that "mathematically" other teams are on the same level as Arkansas, then it just proves that the RPI is a complete load of dog s**t.

Unlike the old BCS, and NCAA selection committee, there is very little reward for playing in a tough conference and having quality wins.  'Overall Record' seems to be the rewarding factor even if you're in a completely terrible conference (Big 10).

Speaking of being rewarded for doing very little, anyone take a look at Louisville?  Ranked #13 (28-11 overall, 8-4 in AAC, 3-2 vs top 25) and lost to Kentucky last week and dropped 2 of 3 to Central Florida.  Upcoming games: Western Kentucky (RPI 77), Morehead St. (RPI 174), and weekend series vs. UCONN (RPI 124).  Louisville's resume highlight?  On April 11th - 13th they swept Houston (29-10 overall, 6-6 in AAC, 3-5 vs top 25).  Is sweeping Houston (RPI 7), Miami Ohio (RPI 96), Samford (RPI 50) and Western Illinois (RPI 226) and a series win vs. Rutgers (RPI 67) all it takes to impress pollsters and the RPI?  They also have wins vs. Xavier (RPI 110) and Butler (RPI 239).  Someone explain to me how them being ranked #13 makes any sense?

It makes no sense at all to be punished for playing 5 games vs. teams that have an above 250 RPI even though you WON THOSE GAMES!  In the same sense, beating (at the time we played them) #17 Alabama 2-1 (RPI 19), #1 South Carolina 2-1 (RPI 4), #11 Vanderbilt 2-1 (RPI 14)... and not getting swept by #8 LSU (RPI 15 & the toughest place to play in college baseball), #15 Mississippi State (RPI 32 & probably the 3rd or 4th toughest place to play in college baseball), and #13 Florida (RPI 1) means about as much as a hill of beans... and in the LSU series we lost a game by 1 run in a walk-off single, and FL we lost 2 games by 1 run.

Upcoming Series: Auburn (RPI 57), Ole Miss (RPI 10), A&M (RPI 53) & Mizzou (RPI 108).

I think it's safe to say Auburn, A&M, & Mizzou are all must win series and possible must sweep vs. Mizzou.  Need to get away from Oxford by not getting swept.

In the Grand scheme of things... Win and everything takes care of itself.  Seems every year we are the recipient of the RPI screwing us because of 1 or 2 games.  It's almost like college baseball RPI rankings use the HOGS to prove a point... even though the point they try to prove makes no sense.

[tennesseehogwild]

The only other solution to the midweek games is to go on the road more, whick aint gonna happen. Therefore the policy against playing in state schools really needs to be lifted.  Damn! All the "what if?" hosting talk could be legitimate if we don't play those 5 games?

[hogman64]

Did you read his quote in the article? He can't get anyone but those SWAC schools for those games.

he manages to get a better team for all other non conference gmes  just cant get anyone better than a 300 rpi for those 5 games.. that's a little hard to believe....not his fault but stop the stupid policy of not playing in state schools and he could  solve the problem, if there really is a problem..

[JonClaudeVanHam]

he manages to get a better team for all other non conference gmes  just cant get anyone better than a 300 rpi for those 5 games.. that's a little hard to believe....not his fault but stop the stupid policy of not playing in state schools and he could  solve the problem, if there really is a problem..

How does that not make his claim even more believable? It would be one thing if our schedule was loaded with SWAC teams but it isn't. We play them like twice a year at inopportune times, well into the season.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

RPI = 50% is determined by Opponents Winning %. So we need to schedule teams that are scheduling other games that "WE" feel like "THEY" will and should win. In other words, we need to schedule teams that have a SOS that they can handle. We don't need to be playing a team that has bitten off more than they can chew and have "NO" chance for a winning record.

If we have no choice but to schedule a 250 RPI team, then we need to find one that is going to be playing a 250+ SOS.

Miss Valley St (294RPI) has 149 SOS and they probably knew they would not have a winning season.

Last week when we lost to Vandy at home, our RPI still went up. That same day Miss Valley St won a double header and Grambling won their game. Also, San Francisco, Cal, App St, E Illinois and Nebraska all won.

Arkansas St   #45 RPI    #66 SOS    24-16
Arkansas   #46 RPI      #49 SOS     27-16

The team with the worst won/loss record that ASU has played has 17 wins.
Arkansas has played teams with 3, 15, 11, 17, 13, 15, 16, 13, wins.
Arkansas has played 22 games against teams in the top 50, ASU has played 5.

Bottom line is we need to WIN and our opponents need to WIN, no matter who they are playing.

The RPI is very much flawed. 

[dotnet]

How does that not make his claim even more believable? It would be one thing if our schedule was loaded with SWAC teams but it isn't. We play them like twice a year at inopportune times, well into the season.

Yeah, you're right.  Out of the 25+ non conference game he schedules... 4 of them were against SWAC teams.  The fifth game was scheduled on the fly to make up a rain out. 

He specifically said it was hard to get people to come to NW Arkansas for a mid week series.  All of those games are in the middle of the week.  He didn't schedule Grambling for an entire weekend or anything. 

[dotnet]

Part of the issue with the schedule is Arkansas being colder than a lot of other southern/western schools, which is where the better schools normally are.  So playing someone who has been able to practice outside more isn't the wisest thing during the first couple of weeks.

Another reason why the indoor facility is really important. 

Once that is up and running, I would like to see Arkansas stop playing these tournaments and start playing home and away series every year.  You could do a home and away with Texas/TCU.. and another with a Virginia/Oregon type school.  This way you are playing two quality non conference opponents, you get the benefit of the big road series on your schedule, and splitting those series won't be considered a bad thing - and winning both of them would be huge. 

Then, in a year like last year... you'll always get the benefit of the doubt based on your schedule. 

[crownhog28]

I'm not sure if this is possible, but could UA help fund getting teams here? I've heard of it done for football, and if we want a team here for a series that could be a possibility. Or even scheduling teams within driving distance. There's a few in Oklahoma, Kansas, etc. that could easily bus into NWA.

[jry04]

UCA, BSking, myself, and a few others have been saying this for the last couple years and people just act like we're being unrealistic.

I have been saying it in basketball, too. It is far better to play 13 non-conference opponents between 100-200 in the RPI that you can beat by 15-20 every game, then it is to play 4 top 25 teams and the rest 200+ that you will beat by 30. It does not make sense. A bad team is a bad team in my book.

In our case in baseball, the fact that 5 teams out of 43 games played make a difference of about 48 spots is ridiculous.

[hogman64]

How does that not make his claim even more believable? It would be one thing if our schedule was loaded with SWAC teams but it isn't. We play them like twice a year at inopportune times, well into the season.

After it has been laid out in black and white that playing SWAC teams has greatly damaged our RPI and greatly damages our chance to host , if you can still believe that scheduling them isn't a mistake then you  just think Van Horn can never do anything less than perfect.........he is  a great college baseball coach but his scheduling those teams makes no sense and I will never buy the argument that no other team would come to Fayetteville or Little Rock, there are to many teams in the 150 to 225 rpi range that would love to knock off an SEC team......I know you don't know a teams rpi when you are scheduling but everyone knows SWAC baseball is the worst.

[jry04]

After it has been laid out in black and white that playing SWAC teams has greatly damaged our RPI and greatly damages our chance to host , if you can still believe that scheduling them isn't a mistake then you  just think Van Horn can never do anything less than perfect.........he is  a great college baseball coach but his scheduling those teams makes no sense and I will never buy the argument that no other team would come to Fayetteville or Little Rock, there are to many teams in the 150 to 225 rpi range that would love to knock off an SEC team......I know you don't know a teams rpi when you are scheduling but everyone knows SWAC baseball is the worst.

Did you not read the article? Have you ever tried to fly out of XNA? It is ridiculously expensive, so the only teams we can get for a mid-week opponent are ones who will bus, or big time programs who can afford to fly for one or two games. For the most part, the big time programs do not want to come in here during conference play. That leaves us with teams around the area. That is why you always see SWAC, Mo. st, ORU, southland, and sometimes OU playing us in mid-week games. Almost every baseball program loses money each season.

[hogman64]

Did you not read the article? Have you ever tried to fly out of XNA? It is ridiculously expensive, so the only teams we can get for a mid-week opponent are ones who will bus, or big time programs who can afford to fly for one or two games. For the most part, the big time programs do not want to come in here during conference play. That leaves us with teams around the area. That is why you always see SWAC, Mo. st, ORU, southland, and sometimes OU playing us in mid-week games. Almost every baseball program loses money each season.

hope those two programs don't stop playing we will have 4 less games every year from here forward, it is impossible to get anyone but them. now I get it.

[JonClaudeVanHam]

After it has been laid out in black and white that playing SWAC teams has greatly damaged our RPI and greatly damages our chance to host , if you can still believe that scheduling them isn't a mistake then you  just think Van Horn can never do anything less than perfect.........he is  a great college baseball coach but his scheduling those teams makes no sense and I will never buy the argument that no other team would come to Fayetteville or Little Rock, there are to many teams in the 150 to 225 rpi range that would love to knock off an SEC team......I know you don't know a teams rpi when you are scheduling but everyone knows SWAC baseball is the worst.

This is not the argument. Everyone knows that it is damaging to schedule them, the problem is that we still need games and they are our only options.

[Kevin]

hypothetical, what is those five games where played on the road? what would the difference be in our rpi?

[ucahogfan]

hypothetical, what is those five games where played on the road? what would the difference be in our rpi?

Heck, even if they are played at a "neutral" site like DSP or Arvest would be a huge help to our RPI.

We should start playing a non-con series every year up at Arvest if we can because that will greatly help our RPI.

[hogman64]

This is not the argument. Everyone knows that it is damaging to schedule them, the problem is that we still need games and they are our only options.

Looking at those two schools schedules unless I missed something , we played them 5 times, the most any other major school played them, combined games with the two of them, was twice.........that was Alabama, miss st and LSU.....LSU probably plays Grambling because they  give the small in state schools a game.....So we apparently need these  two schools much , much more than any other school needs them... doesn't make sense.  Two games is probably ok with the SWAC but 5 is a killer, I don't care how much we needed another  game picking up a SWAC team for a fifth game was a mistake. and scheduling them  4 games to start with was a mistake and it has proved to hurt us.  Again we don't have to schedule upper level  teams just get teams  who obviously are not capable of being 294 and 300 out of 302.........that is getting close to good American legion level.......with the current RPI system that kind of scheduling just invites undeserved issues.

[hogman64]

So if it's not the fact that we can only play those teams, what is it?  It has to be one of two things:

DVH is too stupid to realize that scheduling those teams hurt us.
DVH is purposefully sabotaging our chances to make it to Omaha.

well obviously we didn't HAVE to play the make up game for another opponents rain out date  so that blows the had to theory on 20% of the SWAC  games.... I don't think Van Horn is stupid or would sabotage us  so maybe it was just a miscalculation on his part as to  the effect of playing 5 games against two of the worst teams in college baseball... and maybe he needs to try a little harder to  schedule teams that are a tad better.

[ricepig]

well obviously we didn't HAVE to play the make up game for another opponents rain out date  so that blows the had to theory on 20% of the SWAC  games.... I don't think Van Horn is stupid or would sabotage us  so maybe it was just a miscalculation on his part as to  the effect of playing 5 games against two of the worst teams in college baseball... and maybe he needs to try a little harder to  schedule teams that are a tad better.

He added the game to give more kids the opportunity to play, simple as that.

[ExArky]

Just play Arkansas State and Central Arkansas like the guy suggests in the article. Simplest solution to getting better midweek games than SWAC teams. The in-state policy (whatever the relative merits for or against) is about FOOTBALL and to a lesser extent maybe men's basketball. There's no point extending that over every other sport. Playing a Tues-Wed series with No. 45 ASU would be much better for RPI than playing MVSU -- win or lose. Dropping an occasional baseball game to the Red Wolves or Bears (it's baseball, would be bound to happen now and then) does ZERO damage to UA's brand. Fans/prospects aren't going to defect over a single 5-4 game on a Wednesday in April.

[hogman64]

He added the game to give more kids the opportunity to play, simple as that.

So in the  DH that was supposed to be a single game against one of the worst teams in college baseball  Rucker had one pinch hit appearance  and Alberius didn't get off the bench, they might dispute your theory.....

[ricepig]

So in the  DH that was supposed to be a single game against one of the worst teams in college baseball  Rucker had one pinch hit appearance  and Alberius didn't get off the bench, they might dispute your theory.....

Go ask Van Horn, he's the one who said it. I suggest you do that, he'll give you  his reasons for the game.

[ucahogfan]

Former UGA HC Dave Perno just said RPI doesn't lie on College Baseball Live on ESPNU.  Maybe he hasn't seen Fitt's article about the insanity that is the RPI.

[jry04]

he is smarter than me regarding baseball but I can still have my opinion and question something when facts say otherwise.......Van Horn is a really good coach but I am not one who thinks he is perfect and can never make mistakes, I don't know anyone who doesn't miscalculate a situation or make a mistake every once in a while , even  the best CEO's aren't  perfect.

So he makes this same mistake every single year?

Give me a break. You are negative with almost every post regarding this subject. The schedule is done. Get over it. If we beat San Francisco, South Alabama, and Cal once then we aren't even having this discussion because our RPI would be in the 20s, and we would be playing for a host spot. Heck, even if we take care of business down the stretch we could be talking about hosting. It is unlikely, but we could finish the season 36-20 or 37-19 overall with an RPI in the low 30s or high 20s. Win 2 or 3 in the SECT and we could crack the top 25 in RPI which would put us in the discussion.

Former UGA HC Dave Perno just said RPI doesn't lie on College Baseball Live on ESPNU.  Maybe he hasn't seen Fitt's article about the insanity that is the RPI.

Dave Perno is being an idiot with that comment. So he thinks Old Dominion is better than about 10 SEC teams with a record of 25-16, and just 3-7 vs the RPI top 50? But their RPI is 27th, so they must be.

Illinois State is 22-12 with a SOS of 93. They are 6-5 vs the top 50, with their 6 wins being against Indiana State, Arkansas State, and Dallas Baptist. They have 4 losses to teams outside of the top 100. They have an RPI of 33. Definitely a much better team than some of these SEC squads, right? I am not sure how Perno could vouch for the RPI being from the SEC. The teams who should be trying to sell it are the northern schools and mid to low majors. The teams who have worse records than us but have good RPIs because they play half of their non-conference games on the road.

[dotnet]

So in the  DH that was supposed to be a single game against one of the worst teams in college baseball  Rucker had one pinch hit appearance  and Alberius didn't get off the bench, they might dispute your theory.....

Teague got his only (or did he have another?) start against them.  Fallwell got to pitch.  Baxendale got a start behind home plate (he wasn't playing every day at this point). 

The offense had scored 9 runs in two different SEC games.  But it also had scored a total of 5 runs in the 5 other games before that.  Getting the regulars some confidence and the ability to feel good about some at bats in a live game at Baum wasn't a bad idea.

I know many on here thinks that playing MVS can't help - but the offense has picked up for the most part since then.  That isn't the sole (or even a major) reason... but it didn't hurt. 


There are so many things that go into running a team that is hard to quantify in numbers.  Even things like Tacolini pitching twice this week just so DVH could see how he would respond in that situation so he'll know later when it matters.

This team lost more players to the draft last year than any other program in the sport and they have the talent/performance that you could argue they deserve to host.  I agree DVH isn't perfect... but I don't know how a poster can come on here and complain about the team and his moves in half of their posts and remotely seem reasonable. 

This team has been one of the best to watch in a long time - at least relative to the game with the new bats.

[ricepig]

he is smarter than me regarding baseball but I can still have my opinion and question something when facts say otherwise.......Van Horn is a really good coach but I am not one who thinks he is perfect and can never make mistakes, I don't know anyone who doesn't miscalculate a situation or make a mistake every once in a while , even  the best CEO's aren't  perfect.

Who's making him out to be perfect, read my track record, I think there are a lot of moves he makes that are questionable. He's the one who said they added they extra game to make up for the snow out to get some other kids AB's.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

I do believe DVH really does have trouble finding teams (100 to 200 RPI) in the region that will come to Baum for a mid-week series and not want a return series at their park. He seems to be having trouble even getting Missouri St to come without a return game to their park. If you look at the current RPI there really isn't that many teams in the region that can easily come in for a mid week series and have an RPI in the 100 to 200 range.

DVH has a problem that almost every other coach in the country does not have; his employer loses a lot of money when his team does not play on it's field. Even if the fans don't show up for a home game, they are still paying for the ticket because they are buying season tickets (about 9000 tickets sold per game). So DVH needs to play games at home and not at Arvest or Little Rock or at Stillwater or Springfield. Teams like Houston can go across town and play games to help their RPI and not really suffer a true disadvantage of a neutral site.

Would we be better off playing teams like OU and Okla St in a home and home series? How about a Non Conference series with Mizzou or the Mississippi schools?

Ticket sales pay for the great facilities and stadium and coaches salary and that's what brings in the recruits. Our fans are passionate and support the team and really the NCAA should be looking at what we are doing and use us a model for how things should be done if they want college baseball to explode across the country. The way I see it (and I'm really upset right now) they should give us extra points in the RPI for attendance and reward teams that come to Baum extra RPI points for playing in front of large crowds and the traveling difficulties in getting to Fayetteville for a mid week game or two. 



   

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

Former UGA HC Dave Perno just said RPI doesn't lie on College Baseball Live on ESPNU.  Maybe he hasn't seen Fitt's article about the insanity that is the RPI.

I hope every selection committee member reads Fitt's article.....twice.