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BA Top 25 - 4/21/14

Started by ucahogfan, April 21, 2014, 11:27:38 am

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ucahogfan


Baseball Hog

And people are saying we can't host...  Win every series from here on and it may be a lock.

 

WizardofhOgZ

April 21, 2014, 01:07:25 pm #2 Last Edit: April 21, 2014, 02:34:27 pm by WizardofhOgZ
Quote from: Baseball Hog on April 21, 2014, 11:32:04 am
And people are saying we can't host...  Win every series from here on and it may be a lock.

I won't say we absolutely "can't"; but, IMO we need to win at least 10 of the 12 SEC games we have scheduled, and make a decent showing in the SEC Tournament to have even a chance.  Especially since most of the high ranking SEC opponents are behind us now (Ole Miss is the lone highly ranked opponent, and we get them on the road).  We're not going to get as much of a bump for winning as we would have during the last 3 weeks. 

Even going 6-5 against S. Carolina, UNLV, S. Carolina and Vandy - all of whom were right around #10 in the RPI when we played them (except S. Carolina, who was #1) -we moved up from around #70 to #51 today.  Had we been able to win 2 more of those games . . . and we we very easily could have (we lost the 5 games by a total of 8 runs while posting a margin of 29 run in the 6 we won) . . . we'd be up in the low to mid-30's and really poised for a late run.

Now, we are heading to series against #58, #9 (Ole Miss), #64 and #121 (Thanks Mizzou!), and the remaining non-conference opponents are weak (#145 and #96).  If we continue our pattern of winning more than we lose - but not by many games - we will actually sink in RPI based on who we're playing.  That's why I say we really need to come close to running the table to have ANY chance at all of hosting.

Realistically, I see us more going 7-5 or 8-4 the last four SEC series.  But I'd love to be wrong; if we can just get a little hitting at the same time from four 4 or 5 guys that are capable of performing at the plate, our pitching gives us a chance to make a run.


TikiHog

as far as Boyds to reach the top 32

6 home wins 7 road wins
7 home wins 6 road wins
8 home wins 4 road wins

we can't make the top 16

WizardofhOgZ

Quote from: TikiHog on April 21, 2014, 01:39:30 pm
as far as Boyds to reach the top 32

6 home wins 7 road wins
7 home wins 6 road wins
8 home wins 4 road wins

we can't make the top 16

Yes, but understand that RPI isn't the ONLY thing the committee uses, as we've seen in recent years when we were securely in the top 16 and got by-passed in favor of some other team for the purposes of geographical balancing. 

Still, as I said in my post immediately above yours, we need to pretty much run the table and even then we wouldn't be a lock to host.  Better for us to focus on winning as many games as we can and preparing mentally for the NCAA tournament, which favors teams like our built with pitching depth.

Also, our fans should keep in mind that the last two times we went to Omaha our path to the CWS was entirely on the road; we didn't host a single post-season game in 2009 or 2012.


jry04

The thing that almost assures we have no chance of hosting is that we are in the SEC. There are going to be 4 or 5 teams ahead of us in the hosting pecking order. The NCAA passes worthy SEC teams to avoid it being heavy with one conference.

Baseball Hog

If we ran the table we'd be 100% locks to host.  I'd say a good chance at being a national seed.

RPI is not the god of college baseball.

A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S

"If we ran the table" (excluding the SECT) we would have 40 wins, a 16 game win streak overall, a 13 game SEC winning streak and a  21-9 SEC record. That would be hard to say "no" you are not worthy of hosting, no matter the RPI. However, there is another problem, how many other teams in the region are worthy of hosting?

Hog Fan...DOH!

Quote from: WizardofhOgZ on April 21, 2014, 01:56:22 pm
Yes, but understand that RPI isn't the ONLY thing the committee uses, as we've seen in recent years when we were securely in the top 16 and got by-passed in favor of some other team for the purposes of geographical balancing. 


Ugg, gross.  Let's forget all about growth of the sport and only consider what's fair.  Because, you know, Manhattan, Kansas or Norman, Oklahoma with 500 people in the stands is better for baseball than Fayetteville, Arkansas with 10,000. 

Now back to your regular scheduled programming.


Since Arkansas won't host (not bloody likely), I just hope the pitching holds up, the batting continues to improve, and we don't get sent to freaking Tempe or Fullerton. AGAIN.

TikiHog

have we ever been to Fullerton

Razorbacks#1

9 SEC teams in top 25. Says a lot about our conference.
"You sleep safely in your beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.

THUNDER!

tennesseehogwild

Good to see us back in Top 25. A reward for Hogs body of work in SEC.

A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S

Quote from: Razorbacks#1 on April 21, 2014, 05:48:10 pm
9 SEC teams in top 25. Says a lot about our conference.
and 3 or 4 more teams very easily could be in the top25 if they played in other conferences. We just beat each other up to much for everyone to have a good enough record to be in the top 25.


 

hogman64

Quote from: Hog Fan...DOH! on April 21, 2014, 04:40:14 pm
Ugg, gross.  Let's forget all about growth of the sport and only consider what's fair.  Because, you know, Manhattan, Kansas or Norman, Oklahoma with 500 people in the stands is better for baseball than Fayetteville, Arkansas with 10,000. 

Now back to your regular scheduled programming.


Since Arkansas won't host (not bloody likely), I just hope the pitching holds up, the batting continues to improve, and we don't get sent to freaking Tempe or Fullerton. AGAIN.

NOthing west of Texas please... we are cursed when we head west..........