SEC RPI's

[yraciv]

I know it is early and this would be ugly, but NCAA just released their official RPIs.  Quite a bit of ground to make up, and those 5 SWAC wins are sure looking good, Grambling is 301 and MS Valley is 288.  Nebraska is 73 and obviously winning the series against #1 SC would be huge. Let's hope for a good week of baseball.

4/8 Update

1. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
7. Vandy
8. Florida
9. Ole Miss
15. Alabama
22. LSU
25. Tennessee
41. MS State
59. Georgia
65. Auburn
76. A&M
85. Arkansas
114. Missouri

[hogman64]

I know it is early and this would be ugly, but NCAA just released their official RPIs.  Quite a bit of ground to make up, and those 5 SWAC wins are sure looking good, Grambling is 301 and MS Valley is 288.  Nebraska is 73 and obviously winning the series against #1 SC would be huge. Let's hope for a good week of baseball.

1. South Carolina
4. Kentucky
7. Florida
8. Vandy
10. Ole Miss
18. Alabama
20. Tennessee
38. LSU
45. Auburn
49. MS State
51. A&M
79. Georgia
101. Missouri
116. Arkansas

Stick around there will be people on here that will explain to you why playing the WORST of the WORST doesn't hurt our rpi at all and has no bearing on hosting  or seeding in the tournament or in this year's case even if we make the tournament......

[jacobp]

we have 7 weeks of SEC baseball left and the better non con teams coming up. Not worried about RPI right now. Win games, the RPI will fix itself.

[Kenny Dowell Loggains]

In jeopardy of missing the tournament for the first time in 12 seasons.  These next 5 games at Baum are critical and could tell us a lot about the rest of the season.

MUST. PLAY. BETTER.

Ugh.

[bighog2255]

In jeopardy of missing the tournament for the first time in 12 seasons.  These next 5 games at Baum are critical and could tell us a lot about the rest of the season.

MUST. PLAY. BETTER.

Ugh.

Yep need to go 3-2 at a minimum, and probably 4-1. Cant lose home series and expect to make the tournament

[jacobp]

Yep need to go 3-2 at a minimum, and probably 4-1. Cant lose home series and expect to make the tournament

you serious, Clark?

we will be in the tournament. Dropping a series to one of the best teams in college baseball won't change that. Our SEC slate is very front heavy this year. Weather the storm and make up ground as we go.

[Kenny Sowers]

you serious, Clark?

we will be in the tournament.

Bold statement.

[jacobp]

Bold statement.

How is it bold to say we will be in the field of 64? I don't think its bold at all.

And to expound on the part you didn't quote, we've lost multiple SEC series at Baum several times and still made the tourney.

[yraciv]

How is it bold to say we will be in the field of 64? I don't think its bold at all.

And to expound on the part you didn't quote, we've lost multiple SEC series at Baum several times and still made the tourney.

It's not that bold. Before these RPI's came out I've seen us in as a 3 seed anyways.  That RPI will go up even if we perform mediocre the rest of way, just cause of the schedule strength.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

Maybe those lower ranked teams can start winning some games and help our SOS some.

[yraciv]

Never in my life did I think I would say this, but I'm routing for Grambling and MS Valley State for the rest of the season!

After the Hogs of course.

Go Delta Devils and Tigers!

No need! Even if they beat up on the rest of the SWAC they'll probably peak at 270.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

No need! Even if they beat up on the rest of the SWAC they'll probably peak at 270.

Isn't there a big difference between 299 and 300 or is it 199 and 200?

[bobcat ball]

In jeopardy of missing the tournament for the first time in 12 seasons.  These next 5 games at Baum are critical and could tell us a lot about the rest of the season.

MUST. PLAY. BETTER.

Ugh.

Little early to be making these statements. We are not in danger of anything at this point.

[TikiHog]

this isn't a hosting team so I think the wins might have helped

[bighog2255]

And to expound on the part you didn't quote, we've lost multiple SEC series at Baum several times and still made the tourney.

I'm not saying losing this particular series will keep us out of the tournament. I'm saying that teams that lose series regularly at home don't typically make the tourney. It is very hard to win road series.

This is not the year to fall behind in the SEC. I don't believe there is one dominant team, so there will be a glut of SEC teams between 13-17 wins. If we finish right in there, our RPI is likely to be one of the lower ones in that group.

People that say we "will make the tournament" need to wake up and realize its not a given with this team. The committee isn't taking 12 teams from our league

[ucahogfan]

People that say we "will make the tournament" need to wake up and realize its not a given with this team. The committee isn't taking 12 teams from our league

People saying that "making the tournament isn't a given" need to wake up and realize that DVH has made the tourney every single season since 1999 and that isn't going to change this year.  The SEC is beyond deep this year as a league and could realistically get 10-11 teams in the field this year while I think teams like Auburn and Tennessee will falter.

And we are only 2 games off the pace we set last year at this point in the season and I would argue that our schedule is tougher OOC which is the majority of the games up to this point.

[bighog2255]

People saying that "making the tournament isn't a given" need to wake up and realize that DVH has made the tourney every single season since 1999 and that isn't going to change this year.  The SEC is beyond deep this year as a league and could realistically get 10-11 teams in the field this year while I think teams like Auburn and Tennessee will falter.

And we are only 2 games off the pace we set last year at this point in the season and I would argue that our schedule is tougher OOC which is the majority of the games up to this point.

That is a great streak, but I think it will be more difficult to make it this year than any year in recent history. Mizzu and Georgia IMO will be the bottom 2 teams, but its a dogfight after that. The SEC has never gotten more than 10, so it will be interesting to see if we get more than that.

"Our schedule is tougher OOC"? Now that's funny...

[ucahogfan]

That is a great streak, but I think it will be more difficult to make it this year than any year in recent history. Mizzu and Georgia IMO will be the bottom 2 teams, but its a dogfight after that. The SEC has never gotten more than 10, so it will be interesting to see if we get more than that.

"Our schedule is tougher OOC"? Now that's funny...

I agree that this will be a tough year to make it, but hopefully McAfee's return means we are pretty much at full strength on offense for the first time in a month and we improve there somewhat.  He was really swinging it well when he went down.

Before last week's games, I think Mizzou and UGA were the only two SEC teams with an ERA above 3.  How insane is that?  Now that has probably changed in the last week, but I believe it speaks to the depth of the staffs in the SEC and how baseball has changed in the last couple of years.  It seems like every SEC team has someone who will be drafted in the top couple of rounds on their staff if not multiple people.

[jry04]

It blows my mind that we lose 6 non- conference games, and people blame the swac teams for our low rpi. We play top 20 rpi UNLV, top 100 rpi stephen f austin, and a few other teams around the top 150 for the rest of our non-conference. Our RPI went up about 30 spots just by going 1-2 @ MSU and beating Nebraska. Imagine what will happen if we can win a game or two this weekend and sweep UNLV. We have 5 straight games against top 20 rpi teams. Win today, and take 3 of the next 5 and we are going to see a 40+ rpi jump with quite a bit of baseball left.

[jry04]

Stick around there will be people on here that will explain to you why playing the WORST of the WORST doesn't hurt our rpi at all and has no bearing on hosting  or seeding in the tournament or in this year's case even if we make the tournament......

Who has said it has no bearing on hosting? I do not think anyone has said that, but said this team is not hosting so it is irrelevant to cry about our rpi in relation to hosting.

[azhog10]

What is with Arkansas and it's SWAC love affair. Happens in baseball and basketball.

[ucahogfan]

What is with Arkansas and it's SWAC love affair. Happens in baseball and basketball.

DVH likes a lot of home midweek games and only wants to play a couple of road midweek games a year and those are the type of team that won't require a return trip.

I don't understand why we don't have more Texas teams midweek because the travel isn't too terribly far.

I would say get rid of the SWAC teams and add a couple of Southland type teams such as SFA who is on the schedule.

Our midweek schedule is about 14 games or so each year.  Realistically, I think DVH wants 10 games at Baum, 1 at DSP, and 3 on the road.  It could line up something like this:

1 game each year vs. Oral Roberts alternating back and forth
1 game each year vs. Missouri State alternating back and forth opposite ORU

Bring a team from out west such as UNLV or New Mexico for a 2 game set

At least one game with OU or OSU alternating back and forth (Heck, we could do OKC one year and DSP the next)

Bring in a Kansas team for a 2 game midweek early in the year (KU, K-State, Wichita)

4-6 games against Southland opponents such as McNeese, SFA, Northwestern, etc.

Remaining games fill with other area teams like Memphis, ULM, etc.

There are a lot of winnable games, but would be a very solid slate of midweek games.

[jry04]

UCA, we have a solid slate of mid-week games, though. People are fixating on the 5 SWAC games out of all the non-conference games we are playing. Could we find some better opponents? Of course, but realistically those 5 games will not matter in the end. People are acting like we dropped 10 spots after playing those teams. We have a low RPI because we lost to 3 teams outside the top 100, have not played our toughest non-conference teams yet, and have 10 losses. We are playing Nebraska, UNLV, Stephen F Austin, Missouri State, and NW state the rest of the way. That is a total of 8 mid-week games against teams 140 or better in the RPI. I know as of last night, warren nolan had Missouri state, Nebraska, and Stephen f Austin all in the top 100. UNLV was #13. That is 7 of our 8 midweek games against top 100 opponents.

[bighog2255]

It blows my mind that we lose 6 non- conference games, and people blame the swac teams for our low RPI.

Losing those 6 combined with a #181 SOS, and you get the low RPI that we have

UCA, we have a solid slate of mid-week games, though. People are fixating on the 5 SWAC games out of all the non-conference games we are playing.

Last year, we had the worst SOS in the SEC. And IMO, we will have the worst one in the league again this year. It could be better is my argument. Like UCA said, replace some of the worst teams on our schedule with a few decent ones.

[ucahogfan]

Last year, we had the worst SOS in the SEC. And IMO, we will have the worst one in the league again this year. It could be better is my argument. Like UCA said, replace some of the worst teams on our schedule with a few decent ones.

It's that whole gaming the system argument to really help your schedule.  Baseball is different from basketball in that you could lose to any given team on any given day, but we do need to only schedule 2 games max a year against SWAC competition.  Pittsburgh in basketball has mastered the art of making a weak OOC look strong and help their RPI likewise.

A win is pretty much a given against a SWAC team while against a top 200 type team will be more difficult, but our RPI would be much higher.

[jry04]

Losing those 6 combined with a #181 SOS, and you get the low RPI that we have

Last year, we had the worst SOS in the SEC. And IMO, we will have the worst one in the league again this year. It could be better is my argument. Like UCA said, replace some of the worst teams on our schedule with a few decent ones.

Like I said, 7 more games vs top 100 opponents at this point. Nobody left on our schedule is worse than 140. Those 8 non-conference games we have left will be better than everyone but Cal, with UNLV being better than Cal. It will impact our SOS drastically. Our SOS was north of 220 going into this weekend, and it climbed 40+ spots just after playing 4 games outside of the top 50 at the time. MSU was 55 going into this weekend, and didn't crack the top 50 until after the 3rd game.

[bighog2255]

Like I said, 7 more games vs top 100 opponents at this point. Nobody left on our schedule is worse than 140. Those 8 non-conference games we have left will be better than everyone but Cal, with UNLV being better than Cal. It will impact our SOS drastically. Our SOS was north of 220 going into this weekend, and it climbed 40+ spots just after playing 4 games outside of the top 50 at the time.

And like I said, it will still be at the bottom of the league. Not to split hairs, but our SOS was #212 before the weekend, and is now #181....31 spots.

[hogman64]

Who has said it has no bearing on hosting? I do not think anyone has said that, but said this team is not hosting so it is irrelevant to cry about our rpi in relation to hosting.

My point which you never were able to comprehend was that SOS isn't confined to hurting you only with hosting........it can hurt you with seeding and it can hurt you with even getting in the tournament......you act like we aren't hosting so we can schedule American legion teams and it wont matter.  It could matter in any year, it is always relevant ........

[jry04]

My point which you never were able to comprehend was that SOS isn't confined to hurting you only with hosting........it can hurt you with seeding and it can hurt you with even getting in the tournament......you act like we aren't hosting so we can schedule American legion teams and it wont matter.  It could matter in any year, it is always relevant ........

You fail to comprehend that we play in the SEC. If you can finish around .500 in the SEC then you are making the NCAAT regardless of your non-conference schedule unless there are 10+ SEC teams ahead of you getting bids. I fully understand RPI can hurt your seeding. I never said it couldn't. My point the entire time has been let the season play out. It is absolutely stupid to think that if win games in the SEC we won't have a high enough RPI to make the NCAAT. You are taking a snapshot of the season and acting like it is the case for the entire season. Heck, our non-conference SOS jumped like 30 spots just by playing Nebraska. Imagine what it will do next week against UNLV.


Our RPI was 120 according to Warren Nolan going into that last game. That win pushed us to #94. Our SOS was 154 after the first game. That game pushed us to 112. Tomorrow we will have a top 100 SOS, and if we win will be in the top 75 of the RPI. Meanwhile, we still have 2 games vs UNLV (#17), Vandy(#6), LSU (#36), and Ole Miss (#12). It shouldn't be hard to figure out how high our RPI can jump if we can win 5 or 6 games vs those opponents.

Our SOS will end up in the top 40 or so when it is all said and done, and if we can get to 30 wins our RPI will be in the top 40 as well.

[jry04]

Hogs now are at 82 RPI and 86 SOS with #10 UNLV coming to Fayetteville for two games. Win those two and we are knocking on the door of being top 50.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

Just keep winning.

[Kevin]

Just keep winning.

that is the bottom line

[TikiHog]

Boyd's  RPI 84 SOS 117
Nolan RPI 84 SOS 93

[jry04]

Boyd's  RPI 84 SOS 117
Nolan RPI 84 SOS 93

When does the NCAA update?

[TikiHog]

once a week just like the polls

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

After the 2 UNLV games:

Hogs RPI= #79   (Nolans)
        SOS= #85

Next opponent is LSU with an RPI of #20. Playing them on the road gives us an opportunity to gain some big junks in the RPI rankings.

[bighog2255]

After Stephen F Austin win:

RPI: #70
SOS: #74

Still a bit troubling, but want to see what it does if we take the series this weekend against #14 RPI Vandy. SOS still last in the SEC, and I don't see that changing

[jacobp]

We control our own destiny. Every SEC series we have remaining is winnable. And I would argue we should win all of them except maybe Ole Miss. Hold serve at home, get one of 2 on the road and maybe steal a series or two away from home and we will be fine.

[bighog2255]

We control our own destiny. Every SEC series we have remaining is winnable. And I would argue we should win all of them except maybe Ole Miss. Hold serve at home, get one of 2 on the road and maybe steal a series or two away from home and we will be fine.

I agree with most of that, but that's not the point. It has been argued at length by some on this board that our RPI "wouldn't be an issue" and our SOS "would be fine after all these good teams we play". Well....we are halfway thru league play, and our RPI is 13th in the league, and SOS is still dead last.

The fact is we need to separate ourselves pretty quick from teams like Mizzu, A&M, Auburn, Georgia....or we will be left sitting at home come tournament time

[jacobp]

I get what you're saying. But look, we take 2 of 3 from Vandy this weekend and we're going to get a good bump.
I think we'll take both games against NW State and beat Missouri State in our final midweek matchup.

We then have Auburn at Baum, Ole Miss away, aTm at Baum, then finish the SEC season at Missouri.

We will be favored to win at least 3 of those series. If we play like we have been the past few weeks I actually like us to win every SEC series we have remaining. Ole Miss may be the lone series loss. Do that, RPI will be fine and we'll be in the tourney.

I don't like the way we've been scheduling early in the season either, but I don't have the power to change it.

[jry04]

I agree with most of that, but that's not the point. It has been argued at length by some on this board that our RPI "wouldn't be an issue" and our SOS "would be fine after all these good teams we play". Well....we are halfway thru league play, and our RPI is 13th in the league, and SOS is still dead last.

The fact is we need to separate ourselves pretty quick from teams like Mizzu, A&M, Auburn, Georgia....or we will be left sitting at home come tournament time

You know we play 3 of those 4 teams you mentioned, with 2 of them being at home, right?

We don't have to do anything "quick." Everything will play itself out. There is a reason that the selections are made at the end of the season. Take the Auburn, Missouri, and A&M series plus avoid a sweep to Ole Miss and Vandy, and we will have a top 50 RPI to go with a top 50 SOS. I personally think we take 2 of 3 from Vandy this weekend, too. With how we have been playing lately, if we take 2 of 3 from Vandy and sweep NW State, we may see ourselves showing up as a 2 seed in some projections.


Side note:

Depending on which RPI you look at, 11 of 14 SEC teams are currently top 50, with 6 being top 25.

As a comparison, the Big 12 has 4 teams in the top 50, the Big 10 has 1 team in the top 50, the ACC has 5 teams in the top 50, the Pac 10 has 4 teams in the top 50. So my point is, while our RPI isn't very good right now, saying it is near the bottom of the SEC isn't really a good way to describe it. That is like saying one our top 25 football recruiting classes sucks because it ranked 11th in the SEC.

So at the end of the season, assuming we jump into the top 50 RPI like we expect, there is still a good chance we are only 11th or 10th in the SEC in terms of RPI, but will still be higher than the 3rd or 4th best team in every other conference.

[yraciv]

Won't let me update up top anymore. Lot's of movement up last week for the bottom of the SEC.

4/15 Update

1. Florida
2. South Carolina
5. Ole Miss
14. Vandy
15. Kentucky
18. Tennessee
21. LSU
23. Alabama
41. Georgia
42. MS State
47. Auburn
52. A&M
71. Arkansas
78. Missouri

[bighog2255]

saying it is near the bottom of the SEC isn't really a good way to describe it.

OK, our RPI is 71st right now. If the season ended today, I don't think we would be in the tournament.

I THINK we will win enough games to get in. But, we have to go do it. I think everyone realizes (with our offense) that just about every SEC game we play in could go either way. With our RPI what it is, our margin for error is much smaller than Kentucky or Tennessee, for instance.

As it stands right now, 13 of the 14 SEC teams have a realistic chance to make the tournament. 2 or 3 of those teams will fade and not make it. I just hope we aren't one of them

[jacobp]

4 of our last 5 conference series are with teams with a decent RPI edge over us.

win every home series, don't get swept on the road, and we'll be fine. Stealing the series at Ole Miss would be huge, as well.

[bighog2255]

4 of our last 5 conference series are with teams with a decent RPI edge over us.

win every home series, don't get swept on the road, and we'll be fine. Stealing the series at Ole Miss would be huge, as well.

Again, not the point. I realize if we finish .500 or above, we will get in. But that is certainly not a given in this league. Case in point: Mizzu went to Kentucky and took 2 of 3 last weekend.

[jry04]

OK, our RPI is 71st right now. If the season ended today, I don't think we would be in the tournament.

I THINK we will win enough games to get in. But, we have to go do it. I think everyone realizes (with our offense) that just about every SEC game we play in could go either way. With our RPI what it is, our margin for error is much smaller than Kentucky or Tennessee, for instance.

As it stands right now, 13 of the 14 SEC teams have a realistic chance to make the tournament. 2 or 3 of those teams will fade and not make it. I just hope we aren't one of them

I guess you missed the part in my post where I said our RPI is not very good right now. Not debating that.

[jry04]

Again, not the point. I realize if we finish .500 or above, we will get in. But that is certainly not a given in this league. Case in point: Mizzu went to Kentucky and took 2 of 3 last weekend.

Then you are worrying over nothing right now. We are playing pretty good ball, and if we do what we think we will do down the stretch then it will all take care of itself. If we don't make the NCAAT it will be because we finished below .500 in conference play and struggled down the stretch, not because of our RPI.

You are acting like we are short on chances to make a statement. We have 2 top 15 teams, and 3 teams we are competing against for an at-large bid left. At this point, nobody should be worried.

[jry04]

According to Kendall Rogers, the SEC would have 11 teams in the NCAAT, with Auburn just barely missing.

[A_R_K_A_N_S_A_S]

nm

Nolan's has us at 70 as of 5:00pm Wednesday. We could see some movement even though we don't play tonight.

[Lake City Hog]

I am amazed every year in March and May! People hash and rehash RPI, SOS, OOC schedule and conference like it really matters. I would think that after years of watching committees fill the basketball tournament and a couple of months later the baseball tournament with teams in that they want in and teams out they they want out that more of you would understand.

ALL OF THOSE QUALIFIERS ARE USED FOR ONE PURPOSE AND ONE PURPOSE ONLY------- TO JUSTIFY WHAT THEY DO!!!!!

Every single year we see teams left out or terribly miss-seeded and someone from the committee pops up one of those stats to justify their decision. And, when questioned about an inferior team they will pull out a totally different stat to justify that.

IF the committee wants us in we will be in, if they want us to be a 2 or a 4 seed we will be a 2 or a 4. Anyone that believes that us playing Grambling and Mississippi Valley State is a better representation of our team than us playing (and taking the series) Alabama and South Carolina is simply pretty stupid!

Think about this for just about 1 minute--- some sources are projecting 11 teams from the SEC making the tournament. That is approaching 20% of the field!!! I would think that how a team fares against that competition throughout the season gives a much better representation of the team than who they played in some mid-week OOC games!

Should teams really be judged by games where they play the kids that don't get to play on the weekends? When they pitch the guys that rarely or at best seldom get to pitch in a weekend series?

Just shows you how naive I am, I thought that the tournament was to have the best 64 teams play to find the BEST team.