What the Hogs looked like in defeat

[Biggus Piggus]

Stat breakdown from Arkansas basketball defeats in 2013-14...

Stats are from losses only.

% of total minutes played by guards:

32% Madden
23% Gulley
17% Bell
13% Haydar
11% Wade <-DNP in one loss
4% Scott <-DNP in four losses

% of total minutes played by forwards:

27% Portis
21% Qualls <-missed a game
20% Clarke
17% Harris <-missed a game
10% Kingsley <-DNP in one loss
5% Williams <-DNP in one loss

Team 2-pt field goal % = 41%
Team 3-pt field goal % = 31%
Team free throw % = 72%
Offensive rebounding % = 28%

Points scored per minute:

Leaders--Madden 0.49, Harris 0.44, Portis 0.41, Clarke 0.40.
Middle--Qualls 0.36, Williams 0.29, Bell 0.28, Kingsley 0.28.
Bottom--Haydar 0.25, Wade 0.21, Gulley 0.19, Scott 0.13.

Madden's average minutes = team-high 29.3 x 0.49 = 14.5 points per game.

Shots taken per minute:

Leaders--Bell 0.43, Harris 0.38, Portis 0.37, Madden 0.35, Williams 0.35, Qualls 0.34.
Middle--Clarke 0.31.
Bottom--Gulley 0.20, Wade 0.20, Scott 0.18, Kingsley 0.17, Haydar 0.16.

Clarke's average consisted of some active games and several where he went practically inert. He was DOA in both Cal losses.

Arkansas had four guards, including a frequent starter, who shot so rarely they relegated themselves to nonfactors.

On the other hand, in defeats Bell led the team in shooting frequency -- Bell had a pretty good lead in fact. But Bell was one of the team's least efficient scorers. His shooting percentages were abysmally poor, and he had nothing in his game that would draw fouls. Haydar (6) shot more free throws than Bell (3) in the 12 defeats. Even Scott did (!

Shot mix -- 2-pt attempts as % of total shots:

100% Kingsley, Williams
91% Portis, Harris
88% Scott
67% Clarke (80% in victories)
57% Gulley
54% Madden
53% Qualls (63% in victories)
48% Wade
30% Bell
13% Haydar

Qualls and Clarke played a lot less inside in Arkansas's defeats.

2-pt field goal %:

57% Kingsley (52% in wins)
46% Portis (59% in wins)
45% Harris (50% in wins)
42% Wade (41% in wins)
41% Williams (40% in wins)
40% Clarke (46% in wins), Madden (58% in wins) <= ouch
36% Gulley (47% in wins)
35% Qualls (53% in wins) <= few garbage points in defeats
33% Haydar (13% in wins)
29% Bell (57% in wins) <= huge spread
14% Scott (53% in wins)

Qualls puzzles me. He should have a lot of game around the basket. Qualls was only fifth on the team in 2-point attempts in losses. In wins, Qualls took the second-most inside shots. When he didn't work inside, the Hogs suffered for it.

In defeats, Clarke did not shoot well inside. In victories, he was still below 50%.

3-pt field goal %:

50% Haydar
46% Clarke
39% Madden
33% Gulley
31% Qualls
21% Bell (tied Madden with team high 57 attempts)
15% Wade
9% Portis
0% Harris, Scott
No attempts - Kingsley, Williams

Free throw %:

100% Bell (3-3)
91% Wade
83% Haydar
79% Madden
77% Clarke
74% Portis
70% Qualls
68% Harris
58% Gulley
50% Kingsley, Scott
No attempts - Williams

Minutes played per offensive rebound:

10 to 11 - Kingsley, Portis
13 to 16 - Qualls, Harris, Williams, Clarke
22 to 23 - Madden, Scott <= Guards who played a lot
27 to 28 - Bell, Gulley <= Guards who played a lot
Rarely - Haydar, Wade <= Reserve guards

Minutes played per defensive rebound:

5 to 7 - Kingsley, Williams, Clarke
9 to 10 - Portis, Scott, Qualls
12 to 13 - Madden, Haydar, Harris
21 to 25 - Bell, Gulley, Wade <= Three guards who played a lot

The weakness of guards in rebounding hampered the Razorbacks severely in certain matchups.

Portis and Qualls could stand to improve their defensive rebounding.

Minutes played per turnover:

146 - Haydar
62 - Gulley
27 - Bell
21 to 23 - Portis, Scott, Qualls, Clarke, Kingsley
17.9 - Wade

Now we fall to trouble territory.

13.5 - Madden
10.8 - Harris
6.2 - Williams

It's a fallacy that Qualls was a poor ballhandler. Madden and Harris had the basketball often when they were on the court. In defeats, they gave up a lot of turnovers. You can see why Williams did not play much.

Minutes played per personal foul:

22.5 - Scott
17.6 - Qualls
10 to 12 - Portis, Madden, Wade, Bell
7 to 8 - Gulley, Kingsley, Clarke
5 to 6 - Harris, Williams, Haydar

Qualls and Scott were too passive on defense. The Hogs had six players who fouled excessively, and it was especially bad for Harris considering how many minutes he played. If you average under 9 minutes per foul, you're a risk to foul out of every game. Look at it this way: 20 fouls per game for a team = one foul every 2 minutes, or a foul every 10 minutes per player.

Both Clarke and Harris fouled often in defeats, as they struggled with the defensive and rebounding matchups. Neither was especially suited for the power forward position.

Minutes per trip to the free throw line:

10 to 11 - Madden, Kingsley, Scott, Harris
16 to 18 - Portis, Clarke, Qualls
22.7 - Wade
41.5 - Gulley
48.7 - Haydar
125.3 - Bell
Never went - Williams

Madden was the only guard who could draw fouls often enough to matter. It just wasn't part of the game for Wade, Gulley, Haydar and especially Bell.

Now let's revise this roster.

Forwards

6-10 Portis - needs more post-up game, better defense and defensive rebounding
6-10 Kingsley - learn how to foul less, make free throws
6-10 Thompson - probably provides some rebounds, fouls to use as a freshman
6-8 Williams (?) - doubt he stays after DNP in last NIT game
6-7 Miles - versatile wing player, adds a finisher and strong defender
6-6 Harris - needs better ballhandling, rebounding, polish on skills
6-6 Qualls - developed a lot, will he become a full-fledged guard?

Guards

6-5 Babb - should improve finishing, rebounding, defense
6-5 Madden - should spend his time at the two and three
6-3 Bell - if he could add muscle, his game might take off
6-1 Beard - the speedy point guard the Hogs needed
6-1 Durham - excellent shooter, passer, defender, rebounder in juco

I see answers to the following problems of this year's team:
* Ability to allocate playing time to guards.
* Scoring efficiency.
* Activity of guards on the offensive end.
* Rebounding contribution from guards.
* Ability to generate easy baskets and finish in transition.
* Ability to play good defense without fouling.
* Ballhandling and passing at the point.
* Ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line.

Normal player development should address other weaknesses.

[dhornjr1]

It was my understanding that there would be no math.

[AloRaptor]

Thanks Biggus

[thirtythree]

It was my understanding that there would be no math.

Not for you. You just have to read it.lol.

[Paul]

Good read.  Thanks for your ciphering!

[Biggus Piggus]

If I were Bell, I'd transfer to a conference that's more perimeter-oriented with less brutal defense. His performance against finesse teams was outstanding. Imagine him on a Butler or Gonzaga.

[Biggus Piggus]

Nice work there Biggus Piggus - crunching the numbers is never fun but it can be quite revealing.  A lot to chew on there....

I'm interested in seeing what people think these numbers mean.

[Hog1952]

People on NV don't use facts!

[trashcan maN]

I'm interested in seeing what people think these numbers mean.

I think you did a good job breaking it down.

A couple of things that stood out to me:

Minutes per Defensive Rebound:
12 to 13 - Harris(turnover prone/ poor rebounder for his position and size)

Pct. of Minutes played by F:
10% Kingsley <-DNP in one loss(It's been beaten to death, but get this man in the damn game. He's got an NBA body and needs to develop. I still feel like he will be a 1st round draft pick one day.)

[WizardofhOgZ]

At a quick glance, one thing I noticed was the playing time.  If I am reading correctly, not a single Razorback player played even one third of the game?  (Although to be fair, Madden's 32% is darn close)

I don't believe you are reading them right.

What he has done is add in all the minutes that the players he identifies as "guards" played, then divides the minutes Madden played by that total.  The goal is to show a pecking order for playing time among the group.

Although it won't work exactly this way (because there are times we might have 3 guards in the game, and there are overtime games, etc.), consider that most often, we would have 2 guards on the floor at one time.  In a forty minute game, that would mean guards would account for approx. 80 minutes of playing time.  At 32%, Madden would be playing about 25.6 minutes per game.

[Chic-Hog-Oh]

This is spectacular info. Presents standard stats in new, meaningful ways.

Thank you!

[Atlhogfan1]

Have to take notes as you go through to be able to do an in depth response.  Nice work Biggus.


These numbers just reinforce what we saw. 

Qualls passiveness on D, his lack of either ability or desire to be more than a spot up shooter when facing teams he couldn't overwhelm with athleticism, I have reasons to believe he isn't very coachable and does what he wants

Bell's inefficiency and how little positive impact he had for the minutes he played

Clarke's fouling

Inability of the team to close defensive possessions

Kingsley needing to play more beginning early in the season


I think it also reinforces that for Mike to have successful teams, he needs guards who can shoot consistently from 3 as his teams take a lot of 3's as well as distribute and defend well.  He isn't going to adjust to the personnel he has.  It is a finesse style offensively in a conference which is rewarding physical offensive play.  When the shots are not falling from the outside, there is no emphasis or ability to go into the post.

As far as the new guards, Mike has never played a Fr guard heavier minutes than his other guards.  Not at UAB where he relied on JC transfers like Johnson and the Taylors.  Not at Mizzou where players like Tiller and Denmon had to play behind other guards and not at Arkansas where in his first season Nobles, Scott and Wade played more than BJ -the team's leading scorer.  We'll see if he is forced to change that although he doesn't seem to change much of anything. 

[Oklahawg]

Bell's game vs Indiana State is the outlier to this data. He rebounded, drove the lane, and was, well, a stud. Tells me (a) he can't vs better competition and should seek a transfer to a place where he can succeed against this competition every game; or, (b) the offensive scheme needs to promote that type of play.

I fear (A) is the correct answer.

The data underscores something I've thought all year - Harris is an athlete not a basketball player. Reminds me of some of the bigger players Nolan inherited from Eddie - Stephen Moore is the first that comes to mind - who LOOK like they should be great but rarely play that way.

Defensive/rebounding liabilities might have something to do with Portis and Kingsley not being on the court at the same time. The liability seems to have less to do with Portis and Kingsley, and more with the rest of the roster.

[Biggus Piggus]

I would be glad to see Bell get physically stronger and play against everyone the way he plays against the finesse opponents. When he is free to do his thing, Bell is amazing to watch.

[Biggus Piggus]

I don't believe you are reading them right.

What he has done is add in all the minutes that the players he identifies as "guards" played, then divides the minutes Madden played by that total.  The goal is to show a pecking order for playing time among the group.

Although it won't work exactly this way (because there are times we might have 3 guards in the game, and there are overtime games, etc.), consider that most often, we would have 2 guards on the floor at one time.  In a forty minute game, that would mean guards would account for approx. 80 minutes of playing time.  At 32%, Madden would be playing about 25.6 minutes per game.

You are right about the numbers.

Arkansas had two guards on the court about half the time, three guards the rest - almost never four (as we've seen in other seasons).

[AF74Razorback]

I would be glad to see Bell get physically stronger and play against everyone the way he plays against the finesse opponents. When he is free to do his thing, Bell is amazing to watch.

Biggus.   I agree with that and I really had begun to like and appreciate this team.   Sorry to see some go,  because apparently they had an epiphany as did Qualls.   I am just hoping that our centers get stronger around the basketball on offense.

[Biggus Piggus]

At a quick glance, one thing I noticed was the playing time.  If I am reading correctly, not a single Razorback player played even one third of the game?  (Although to be fair, Madden's 32% is darn close)

I realize these are losses you are examining here but when I see playing time numbers like this, I wonder if MA is trying to work too many players in.  There is something to be said for continuity...

I'll look at this more but I just checked out some of your other posts and you have a serious Jones for numbers.  Again, I know that takes a lot of effort and thanks.

It means of all the minutes played by guards, Madden had almost one-third of them.

Understand, these are from losses only. Guards had 1,105 minutes, forwards 1,263. On average, 2-1/3 guards, 2-2/3 forwards. It tilted a little more toward three-forward lineups than I thought. Not quite 50/50.

[AF74Razorback]

Bell's game vs Indiana State is the outlier to this data. He rebounded, drove the lane, and was, well, a stud. Tells me (a) he can't vs better competition and should seek a transfer to a place where he can succeed against this competition every game; or, (b) the offensive scheme needs to promote that type of play.

I fear (A) is the correct answer.

The data underscores something I've thought all year - Harris is an athlete not a basketball player. Reminds me of some of the bigger players Nolan inherited from Eddie - Stephen Moore is the first that comes to mind - who LOOK like they should be great but rarely play that way.

Defensive/rebounding liabilities might have something to do with Portis and Kingsley not being on the court at the same time. The liability seems to have less to do with Portis and Kingsley, and more with the rest of the roster.

This team had moments at the end of the year that spoke to a lot of talent but I am in agreement about Harris.  You have to give Alandis credit,  as he got stronger around the rim and the shots started falling.

Bell may be an Alex Dilliard kin of player,  I just wish we could get another Corey Beck and Clint McDaniel.    To me,  Madden found himself too many times stuck inside the foul line with no where else to go.

I wish we could have started the season where we left off,  minus the setback of the last two games.

[Atlhogfan1]

I look for Miles to finish up next season in the range of where Harris or Clarke did this season  in terms of fouls per minute.  He'll make some highlights though in the rent a win portion of the schedule. 

Harris was given the role of coming in with the often scoring challenged second unit and tried to do too much offensively considering he is overmatched from a height, skill standpoint against major conference competition. 

[tophawg19]

The thing I took away is that this team needs to attack the basket more and eliminate the cheap fouls on defense . Also we need more aggressiveness by the guards in rebounding . The good NR teams always had guards who would fight and steal rebounds . Thanks BP  your best work yet . now send it to MA .

[gmarv]

this is a very interesting breakdown,it seems to point out
that our senior leaders had trouble leading at times.as when we lost clarke seem to disappear as in the cal. game.we need somebody next year
to step up and take the leadership role, hoping madden keeps improving
and can be the man.

[Porked Tongue]

This topic is culturally biased.

[Biggus Piggus]

This topic is culturally biased.

Incomprehensible statement.

[Chic-Hog-Oh]

This topic is culturally biased.

Huh?

[hawg IQ]

it

This team had moments at the end of the year that spoke to a lot of talent but I am in agreement about Harris.  You have to give Alandis credit,  as he got stronger around the rim and the shots started falling.

Bell may be an Alex Dilliard kin of player,  I just wish we could get another Corey Beck and Clint McDaniel.    To me,  Madden found himself too many times stuck inside the foul line with no where else to go.

I wish we could have started the season where we left off,  minus the setback of the last two games.

it was like the Kentucky games the team had drive and want to, then toward the end no drive or want to. It that motivation issues, coaching issues , who knows .

   I don't know if anyone knows, but when you think about, we let a win get away against florida and beat an elite 8 team twice, you wonder whats wrong inside the head to some degree. no disrespect, its just  amazing?

It goes to show something is missing? I think one quality Ronnie Brewer type is the difference, that one element of talent we have not signed yet?

[AF74Razorback]

Incomprehensible statement.

Not if you are drunk.

[mhuff]

Biggus, that was an awesome analysis. I knew Harris was a turnover waiting to happen. I like Bell, but overall his stats were horrendous. He had several big games ,but he was never consistent enough to shoot that many shots. His 2 point percentage tells the tale. He did shoot good FT's though. Williams nor Wagner will be here imho next year. There are also better shooters than Bell coming as well.

+1

[Fayettechill14]

Good numbers. Clarke, for a guy with so much versatility, was very inconsistent. He'd carry the team on his back one game and then vanish the next. I guess foul trouble played a part for him too often.

The guards that are graduating were our worst shooters. We'll miss their defense but we don't lose much in terms of jump shooting.

[High Octane Hog]

Stat breakdown from Arkansas basketball defeats in 2013-14...

Stats are from losses only.

% of total minutes played by guards:

32% Madden
23% Gulley
17% Bell
13% Haydar
11% Wade <-DNP in one loss
4% Scott <-DNP in four losses

% of total minutes played by forwards:

27% Portis
21% Qualls <-missed a game
20% Clarke
17% Harris <-missed a game
10% Kingsley <-DNP in one loss
5% Williams <-DNP in one loss

Team 2-pt field goal % = 41%
Team 3-pt field goal % = 31%
Team free throw % = 72%
Offensive rebounding % = 28%

Points scored per minute:

Leaders--Madden 0.49, Harris 0.44, Portis 0.41, Clarke 0.40.
Middle--Qualls 0.36, Williams 0.29, Bell 0.28, Kingsley 0.28.
Bottom--Haydar 0.25, Wade 0.21, Gulley 0.19, Scott 0.13.

Madden's average minutes = team-high 29.3 x 0.49 = 14.5 points per game.

Shots taken per minute:

Leaders--Bell 0.43, Harris 0.38, Portis 0.37, Madden 0.35, Williams 0.35, Qualls 0.34.
Middle--Clarke 0.31.
Bottom--Gulley 0.20, Wade 0.20, Scott 0.18, Kingsley 0.17, Haydar 0.16.

Clarke's average consisted of some active games and several where he went practically inert. He was DOA in both Cal losses.

Arkansas had four guards, including a frequent starter, who shot so rarely they relegated themselves to nonfactors.

On the other hand, in defeats Bell led the team in shooting frequency -- Bell had a pretty good lead in fact. But Bell was one of the team's least efficient scorers. His shooting percentages were abysmally poor, and he had nothing in his game that would draw fouls. Haydar (6) shot more free throws than Bell (3) in the 12 defeats. Even Scott did (!

Shot mix -- 2-pt attempts as % of total shots:

100% Kingsley, Williams
91% Portis, Harris
88% Scott
67% Clarke (80% in victories)
57% Gulley
54% Madden
53% Qualls (63% in victories)
48% Wade
30% Bell
13% Haydar

Qualls and Clarke played a lot less inside in Arkansas's defeats.

2-pt field goal %:

57% Kingsley (52% in wins)
46% Portis (59% in wins)
45% Harris (50% in wins)
42% Wade (41% in wins)
41% Williams (40% in wins)
40% Clarke (46% in wins), Madden (58% in wins) <= ouch
36% Gulley (47% in wins)
35% Qualls (53% in wins) <= few garbage points in defeats
33% Haydar (13% in wins)
29% Bell (57% in wins) <= huge spread
14% Scott (53% in wins)

Qualls puzzles me. He should have a lot of game around the basket. Qualls was only fifth on the team in 2-point attempts in losses. In wins, Qualls took the second-most inside shots. When he didn't work inside, the Hogs suffered for it.

In defeats, Clarke did not shoot well inside. In victories, he was still below 50%.

3-pt field goal %:

50% Haydar
46% Clarke
39% Madden
33% Gulley
31% Qualls
21% Bell (tied Madden with team high 57 attempts)
15% Wade
9% Portis
0% Harris, Scott
No attempts - Kingsley, Williams

Free throw %:

100% Bell (3-3)
91% Wade
83% Haydar
79% Madden
77% Clarke
74% Portis
70% Qualls
68% Harris
58% Gulley
50% Kingsley, Scott
No attempts - Williams

Minutes played per offensive rebound:

10 to 11 - Kingsley, Portis
13 to 16 - Qualls, Harris, Williams, Clarke
22 to 23 - Madden, Scott <= Guards who played a lot
27 to 28 - Bell, Gulley <= Guards who played a lot
Rarely - Haydar, Wade <= Reserve guards

Minutes played per defensive rebound:

5 to 7 - Kingsley, Williams, Clarke
9 to 10 - Portis, Scott, Qualls
12 to 13 - Madden, Haydar, Harris
21 to 25 - Bell, Gulley, Wade <= Three guards who played a lot

The weakness of guards in rebounding hampered the Razorbacks severely in certain matchups.

Portis and Qualls could stand to improve their defensive rebounding.

Minutes played per turnover:

146 - Haydar
62 - Gulley
27 - Bell
21 to 23 - Portis, Scott, Qualls, Clarke, Kingsley
17.9 - Wade

Now we fall to trouble territory.

13.5 - Madden
10.8 - Harris
6.2 - Williams

It's a fallacy that Qualls was a poor ballhandler. Madden and Harris had the basketball often when they were on the court. In defeats, they gave up a lot of turnovers. You can see why Williams did not play much.

Minutes played per personal foul:

22.5 - Scott
17.6 - Qualls
10 to 12 - Portis, Madden, Wade, Bell
7 to 8 - Gulley, Kingsley, Clarke
5 to 6 - Harris, Williams, Haydar

Qualls and Scott were too passive on defense. The Hogs had six players who fouled excessively, and it was especially bad for Harris considering how many minutes he played. If you average under 9 minutes per foul, you're a risk to foul out of every game. Look at it this way: 20 fouls per game for a team = one foul every 2 minutes, or a foul every 10 minutes per player.

Both Clarke and Harris fouled often in defeats, as they struggled with the defensive and rebounding matchups. Neither was especially suited for the power forward position.

Minutes per trip to the free throw line:

10 to 11 - Madden, Kingsley, Scott, Harris
16 to 18 - Portis, Clarke, Qualls
22.7 - Wade
41.5 - Gulley
48.7 - Haydar
125.3 - Bell
Never went - Williams

Madden was the only guard who could draw fouls often enough to matter. It just wasn't part of the game for Wade, Gulley, Haydar and especially Bell.

Now let's revise this roster.

Forwards

6-10 Portis - needs more post-up game, better defense and defensive rebounding
6-10 Kingsley - learn how to foul less, make free throws
6-10 Thompson - probably provides some rebounds, fouls to use as a freshman
6-8 Williams (?) - doubt he stays after DNP in last NIT game
6-7 Miles - versatile wing player, adds a finisher and strong defender
6-6 Harris - needs better ballhandling, rebounding, polish on skills
6-6 Qualls - developed a lot, will he become a full-fledged guard?

Guards

6-5 Babb - should improve finishing, rebounding, defense
6-5 Madden - should spend his time at the two and three
6-3 Bell - if he could add muscle, his game might take off
6-1 Beard - the speedy point guard the Hogs needed
6-1 Durham - excellent shooter, passer, defender, rebounder in juco

I see answers to the following problems of this year's team:
* Ability to allocate playing time to guards.
* Scoring efficiency.
* Activity of guards on the offensive end.
* Rebounding contribution from guards.
* Ability to generate easy baskets and finish in transition.
* Ability to play good defense without fouling.
* Ballhandling and passing at the point.
* Ability to draw fouls and get to the free throw line.

Normal player development should address other weaknesses.

Enjoyed this post. Thanks

[chiti66]

Great stuff!  Now are you free to tutor me in my MBA corporate finance class?  And I am not kidding!:)

WPS!

[Biggus Piggus]

Great stuff!  Now are you free to tutor me in my MBA corporate finance class?  And I am not kidding!:)

WPS!

Now there's an area where I have lots of expertise...and I am not kidding either (CFA).

[ConHawg]

Great stuff BP.  Enjoyed the read.

On the other hand, why on earth would someone quote the whole thing in a reply just to take up space.  Come on people!  There should be a limit to quoting, like 3 lines max.