What will it take to get to 8 wins?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I will be skeptical on the amount the D can improve until we have some SEC LB's on the roster. I just don't see any, I hope Otha comes back and is one but I don't know

Right now you have Otha Peters and Brooks Ellis fighting it out at MLB.

[weresoclose]

Intangibles include cohesiveness of the offense, psychological development of BA (if he is the starter), philosophical advancement of BB's transition to the SEC, adaptation to the "new" variety of SEC offenses as related to Hog defense, growth of defensive maturity both by players and coaches, etc.

Again, I am not sure what the point is of setting the fan base up for potential letdown in 2014.  Why do W's matter as the end-all-be-all measuring stick?

Since we are all laying down our guns and giving it another season, we need to prepare to give it two (2) years before we wage war against the administration.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

That makes me feel better. Here I was thinking we had the best coaching staff in America last year. Im glad we have better ones this year

Well, you know, I think Chris Ash is a good DC...in the right system with the right amount of time. I just don't think he could have gotten it done in the timeframe that some of the fans expect it to be done in. Shoot, there's some people ready to get a new HC after 1 stinkin' year. WTH? I would say Ash is a Big 10 coach. I am not ready to crown the new d-staff the 'greatest' just yet, but we'll see. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

He isn't just assuming great improvement he is assuming that it will basically double in effectiveness.  That is Rick Shafferesque. 

"Well, you know Chuck, if we can hold them here, score quick, recover two onsides kicks and score, then we'll only be down two touchdowns...and with five minutes left, it's anybody's ballgame."

Typical response from you, but no, I am suggesting that with a healthy QB and with receivers who will be actually running the patterns that they were supposed to run last year, that we very well could have improved performance in our passing game this year. No guarantees, I just think that you typically see improvement in year two of a new offense, than you saw in year one. I know, what a stretch?

[ChitownHawg]

Typical response from you, but no, I am suggesting that with a healthy QB and with receivers who will be actually running the patterns that they were supposed to run last year, that we very well could have improved performance in our passing game this year. No guarantees, I just think that you typically see improvement in year two of a new offense, than you saw in year one. I know, what a stretch?

Muskogee, the Ignore List can be your best friend. 

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Intangibles include cohesiveness of the offense, psychological development of BA (if he is the starter), philosophical advancement of BB's transition to the SEC, adaptation to the "new" variety of SEC offenses as related to Hog defense, growth of defensive maturity both by players and coaches, etc.

Again, I am not sure what the point is of setting the fan base up for potential letdown in 2014.  Why do W's matter as the end-all-be-all measuring stick?

Since we are all laying down our guns and giving it another season, we need to prepare to give it two (2) years before we wage war against the administration.

I believe our Offense will be better than it was last year. How much? Not sure. But if we can get a better passing game going, our RB's will have 2,500+ yards next year. I would be good with 6-7 wins next year. I'm not trying to say WE WILL win 8, but I think it is in reach. I really don't think we are as bad as the score shows. Have faith.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Intangibles include cohesiveness of the offense, psychological development of BA (if he is the starter), philosophical advancement of BB's transition to the SEC, adaptation to the "new" variety of SEC offenses as related to Hog defense, growth of defensive maturity both by players and coaches, etc.

Again, I am not sure what the point is of setting the fan base up for potential letdown in 2014.  Why do W's matter as the end-all-be-all measuring stick?

Since we are all laying down our guns and giving it another season, we need to prepare to give it two (2) years before we wage war against the administration.

If you consider this thread as setting fans up for disappointment, when I said from the beginning that I was not saying that we would win 8 games, but instead, here is what teams who have won 8, 9, 10 or 11 games have done to be successful, then I suggest your reading skills are in question, OR, you are just wanting to flame and distract from the original intent of the thread, as you usually do.

[Hawgon]

Typical response from you, but no, I am suggesting that with a healthy QB and with receivers who will be actually running the patterns that they were supposed to run last year, that we very well could have improved performance in our passing game this year. No guarantees, I just think that you typically see improvement in year two of a new offense, than you saw in year one. I know, what a stretch?

Just give it a rest.  You're too old for blind optimism.  If they are improved be happy, but don't get on here predicting the kind of improvement you are without expecting a little ridicule.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

If you consider this thread as setting fans up for disappointment, when I said from the beginning that I was not saying that we would win 8 games, but instead, here is what teams who have won 8, 9, 10 or 11 games have done to be successful, then I suggest your reading skills are in question, OR, you are just wanting to flame and distract from another thread, as you usually do.

He was resonding to my semi-smart alec response.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Right now you have Otha Peters and Brooks Ellis fighting it out at MLB.

What is the story with Peters right now? I have not heard his name mentioned too much this Spring.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Just give it a rest.  You're too old for blind optimism.  If they are improved be happy, but don't get on here predicting the kind of improvement you are without expecting a little ridicule.

What is laughable is your ongoing negative attitude. I have hope for the future and I will always choose that, in a rational way, over being negative and being "glass half empty". Problem for you is, in this thread, I have provided facts, and facts that are hard to argue with (if you even checked the stats, which I doubt) when you have an agenda of being negative to begin with or don't have the capacity to maturely deal with potential diappointment. I'll choose being postive every time.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

What is the story with Peters right now? I have not heard his name mentioned too much this Spring.

Working at MLB.

[Lake City Hog]

Winning 8 games will require a bit of luck, maybe hitting the big play instead of just missing it, knocking down that long pass instead of giving up the bomb and catching a few breaks from the refs.

I think that the defense will show the most improvement simply because it has become more and more apparent that last year a lot of our problems on that side of the ball came from the sidelines. Maybe it was just a matter of the coaches not being on the same page, maybe it was some ego issues that cropped up. Whatever the reason, we had some coaching issues on defense.

We don't have to field a spectacular defense, just a good solid D that doesn't give up big plays like apples. If Smith utilizes our strength, the front 4, and allows them to help cover our weaker areas we should be much improved.

The only question that I have on the offensive side of the ball again involves coaching. Can Chaney and BB get on the same page? Will we truly open the offense? Will we run better pass routes? Will we quit throwing that deep out so much? Will we use the crossing routes that often lead to a DB being picked by an official out another receiver or even by the other DB?

If we can get a really good mix of run and pass our O will be fine. We should score enough points to be in any ballgame.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The problem with a lot of you folks is that you just read the last post or two of a thread instead of reading the original content and purpose of the thread.

[Hawgon]

What is laughable is your ongoing negative attitude. I have hope for the future and I will always choose that, in a rational way, over being negative and being "glass half empty". Problem for you is, in this thread, I have provided facts, and facts that are hard to argue with (if you even checked the stats, which I doubt) when you have an agenda of being negative to begin with or don't have the capacity to maturely deal with potential diappointment. I'll choose being postive every time.

You provided wishful thinking.  You showed stats and then crossed your fingers and opined that if we can compile similar stats, then we can win.  That is like saying if we can score 40 points a game instead of 20 that we'll win a lot more.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You provided wishful thinking.  You showed stats and then crossed your fingers and opined that if we can compile similar stats, then we can win.  That is like saying if we can score 40 points a game instead of 20 that we'll win a lot more.

You are speculating on what you hope happens or doesn't happen as opposed to what is proven performance as shown. Go hang out in the Tavern where it doesn't matter about the quality of your posts. You are coming up short here.

[Hawgon]

You are speculating on what you hope happens or doesn't happen as opposed to what is proven performance has shown. Go hang out in the Tavern where it doesn't matter about the quality of your posts. You are coming up short here.

Well, tell me what this team or staff has proved yet that should provide any reasonable person with optimism.

[CallThemHawgs!]

If you read the thread, I am not saying we will get to 8 wins, I was merely showing you what 8, 9, 10 and 11 win teams did to win that number of games as compared to our stats.

After checking out the stats, I would appreciate your honest input as opposed to just checking in to take a shot at the team and the staff.

Yeah, I understand. Once this team is worthy of analysis I will give my take after looking at the numbers.

[fortsmithokie]

I can't think of one fan base overall that doesn't believe they aren't screwed over by the Refs at some point. Refs make mistakes but to think they do so on purpose is ludicrous.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but in recent years, the officiating in Lubbock has been infamous.

[tusksincolorado]

What is laughable is your ongoing negative attitude. I have hope for the future and I will always choose that, in a rational way, over being negative and being "glass half empty". Problem for you is, in this thread, I have provided facts, and facts that are hard to argue with (if you even checked the stats, which I doubt) when you have an agenda of being negative to begin with or don't have the capacity to maturely deal with potential diappointment. I'll choose being postive every time.

HAVE FAITH....WE WILL WIN....GO HAWGS!!!   :razorback:

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Well, tell me what this team or staff has proved yet that should provide any reasonable person with optimism.

Well maybe if you stuck to the orginal topic of the thread and voiced your opinion on that, we might have something to discuss. Which was the orginal intent of this thread instead of, "the Hogs suck and we can't win". Check the original post of this thread and then get back to me.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

You provided wishful thinking.  You showed stats and then crossed your fingers and opined that if we can compile similar stats, then we can win.  That is like saying if we can score 40 points a game instead of 20 that we'll win a lot more.

and as terrible as you make the Hogs sound, we were damn close to a 5 win if not 6 win season last year. Contrary to what you make it sound, we are not celler dwellers and we will be back competing in '14.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Yeah, I understand. Once this team is worthy of analysis I will give my take after looking at the numbers.

I'll just say to you the same as I said to Hawgon.

Well maybe if you stuck to the orginal topic of the thread and voiced your opinion on that, we might have something to discuss. Which was the orginal intent of this thread instead of, "the Hogs suck and we can't win". Check the original post of this thread and then get back to me.

[Hawgon]

and as terrible as you make the Hogs sound, we were damn close to a 5 win if not 6 win season last year. Contrary to what you make it sound, we are not celler dwellers and we will be back competing in '14.

Actually, I agree with that and it is the main reason I am disgusted with this staff.    I figure a staff of even Nutt level would have at least lucked into one or two more wins.  Instead, we actually invented ways to lose.

[Steef]

Only 8?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Actually, I agree with that and it is the main reason I am disgusted with this staff.    I figure a staff of even Nutt level would have at least lucked into one or two more wins.  Instead, we actually invented ways to lose.

So you just don't like the Bielema hire and think that we could have done better?

[Steef]

So you just don't like the Bielema hire and think that we could have done better?

Come on, bud! Don't ENCOURAGE him!

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Come on, bud! Don't ENCOURAGE him!

My bad, tired of this schitt and the derailing of threads.

If everyone just reverted to the content of the original thread, we might be all good.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

after going back to your stats, I see that our pass defense wasn't as bad as I thought either. Our front 4 should be better so hopefully we get the rushing yards down. Our secondary will be improved so the passing yards will come down. Turnovers. We have got to get the turnovers to go in our favor. Next year really is fixin' to get better.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

How to get to 8 wins?

We need better efficiency on 3rd down to sustain drives. This means better QB play and receiver play, a more efficient passing game. Last season we were 65 out of 156 for .417 on 3rd downs. Improve this number by 10% (72/156) and it puts you in the top 25 in 3rd down percentage. That means you are sustaining drives at critical times and winning close games.

The defense was even worse on 3rd down. We were 94th in the country on 3rd down percentage defensively. How many times last year did we have an opponent 3rd and long only to give up a big play? We need a 22% improvement to be top 25 in this category. We were 66 out of 152 for .434 (top 25 is .340). This means linebackers must continue to improve by filling the proper gaps and the secondary (especially the safeties) must work on being in the right positions. Too many big plays were given up defensively by just not being in the right spot.

Keeping players healthy is another key. This team will have more depth than last year, but we are not there yet. In my opinion, the Hogs go bowling last year if Allen stays healthy.

Finally, we need a little luck. With that said, "Fortune favors the prepared mind". There were some questionable calls last year that put the team at a disadvantage and killed momentum. The staff needs to a better job of managing the decisions that affect momentum. It will help keep games within reach at the end.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The more you two whine, the more fun it is.

Which indicates a "troller".

[Piggfoot]

As Anderson liked to say last year, " We were right there but couldn't get over the    hump. We had a completely new staff, some critical injuries, a lack of depth, and we played one of the most difficult schedules in football. We were a couple of breaks from having the same first year record Petrino had in 2008.
Everything else being equal, a healthy BA and an improvement in our receiving corp should certainly have us bowling next year and a little luck may have us winning 8. To win 11 we will need a few more good recruiting years improving our depth.

[weresoclose]

Man, Muskogee, you are coming at this all wrong.  You need to be steering the flock into understanding that if we are going to accept 3 years, then we should accept the 3rd year as the measuring stick.  Not year 2.  If you accept 3 years from the onset, then Year 3 is the only season worth serious evaluation. Otherwise, what is the point?

[Hawgon]

Which indicates a "troller".

No, I actually believe it.  You two just add a slight bit of enjoyment to an otherwise bleak situation.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I agree with you Dark Helmet. 3rd downs on both sides of the ball was difference maker last year. We couldn't get 'em and we gave 'em away. We do better on 3rd down conversion on offense and stops on defense...totally different ballgame.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Man, Muskogee, you are coming a this all wrong.  You need to be steering the flock into understanding that of we are going to accept 3 years, then we should accept the 3rd year as the measuring stick.  Not year 2.  If you accept 3 years from the onset, then Year 3 is the only season worth serious evaluation. Otherwise, what is the point?

You are lost in this topic, as so much as in many others. It would be good if you read the original post. Dude, reading comprehension for you, as well as many others, is your friend.

[Hawgon]

I agree with you Dark Helmet. 3rd downs on both sides of the ball was difference maker last year. We couldn't get 'em and we gave 'em away. We do better on 3rd down conversion on offense and stops on defense...totally different ballgame.

We need some quick strike ability. Our RBs while good aren't much threat to take one to the house.  You can't grind it out against SEC defenses.

[Steef]

The more you two whine, the more fun it is.

Odd comment, coming from a professing Christian.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

I agree with you Dark Helmet. 3rd downs on both sides of the ball was difference maker last year. We couldn't get 'em and we gave 'em away. We do better on 3rd down conversion on offense and stops on defense...totally different ballgame.

Seems like every 3rd down was huge last year doesn't it

[870hogfan]

The more you two whine, the more fun it is.

Seems to me that you are the one that likes to whine...

[Dark Helmet Hog]

We need some quick strike ability. Our RBs while good aren't much threat to take one to the house.  You can't grind it out against SEC defenses.

I don't know about that. Auburn, LSU, Alabama all did a pretty good job of grinding it out against SEC defenses. The grind creates the opportunity for big plays. I think we just need to be more efficient in the passing game to take advantage.

[ChitownHawg]

Odd comment, coming from a professing Christian.

That is sad.

[Inhogswetrust]

Muskogee, the Ignore List can be your best friend. 

I'm more of the "keep your friends close but your enemy closer" type on some things.

[weresoclose]

You are lost in this topic, as so much as in many others. It would be good if you read the original post. Dude, reading comprehension for you, as well as many others, is your friend.

Lost in understanding the purpose...

You know as well as I that what the Program has been through recently indicates a need for improvent beyond stats.  It is no surprise that out stats are average while our winning percentage is not. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm more of the "keep your friends close but your enemy closer" type on some things.

Despite all this BS, can we just get back to topic?

[Steef]

Despite all this BS, can we just get back to topic?

Luck.

It will take a little luck to get 8 wins. Doesn't mean it isn't do-able, 'cause we've seen luck every season...for SOMEONE. Last year it was Saint Gus. Could be us this year.

All hoopla aside, there are problems. Yet ANOTHER defensive staff (albeit probably better than we've had in recent memory). A thin linebacking corps (though Ellis and Peters could be a BIG difference...if Otha doesn't get hurt again).

But BA is gonna have to step up. If he does, 8 is possible. If he doesn't, Rafe is gonna have a hard year.

We face several teams with newbie QBs. If ours plays better than 'newbie' himself, it could be THE difference. LSU, Bama, Georgia, TAMU and Mizzoo all have new signal callers this year.

I love college football.

We WILL have one of the best Olines in the league this year...and future coming years. THANK YOU, SAM!!!

We will have one of the best RB fields in the league this year.

And we have our three toughest opponents at our house this year.

Could be worse.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Question is, can we just get to 429 yds in total offense and 375 in total defense? If we can, we win a minimm of 8 this year.

[Steef]

Question is, can we just get to 429 yds in total offense and 375 in total defense? If we can, we win a minimm of 8 this year.

I respect your ability in crunching numbers. But your premise is based on what those numbers would have done in the past. Our enemies are not as static as that.

Remember a few years back, when Ryan Mallett and Aaron Murphy had a shoot out in Fayetteville? That game was as much an anomaly as any I've seen this century. And the odds going into the game...ended up meaningless.

I do think we will see MORE running game this year than last. As such, it's harder to get to 400+. Especially if we become predictable. The good news is, that 375 benchmark may be easier this year BECAUSE our enemies will be skittish to throw themselves, with newbies behind center.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

Question is, can we just get to 429 yds in total offense and 375 in total defense? If we can, we win a minimm of 8 this year.

We will have to improve on 3rd down on both sides of the ball to do this.

[Steef]

We will have to improve on 3rd down on both sides of the ball to do this.

I am encouraged about this. 'Third down must have'...is a gutcheck situation every fourth snap.

And experience really contributes to gutchecks. 2013 was the year of newbies for us. 2014....we have some experience.