What will it take to get to 8 wins?

[LZH]

They selectively release general stats. The NCAA also accumulates stats on their web site, but they don't go into this kind of depth. That being said, all they can publish is that which the schools share with them and the kind of stats you are talking about tend to be more due to internal tracking, rather than anything that the NCAA is interested in accumulating.

I was pretty impressed that in one of the links above the coaches talked about percentages and what they liked to see.  These guys know their stats, numbers, percentages, etc.  I guess it's their equivalent of a job/cost report or a monthly balance sheet.  One look and you can see what's working and what's wrong.

[BENTON PIGGEE]

OK, here is your Offensive Stat.

Total Offense:

Of the 61 teams that averaged 5.7 yards per play or more, 52 (85.2%) of them had winning records.

Of the 62 teams that averaged 5.68 yards per play or less, only 19 (30.6%) of them had winning records.

Arkansas averaged 5.53 per play in the absence of having a healthy QB and again, are right on the bubble.

We could go up or down in that stat but I expect us to improve with a healthy BA and better receivers.

There are three types of lies- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

[Fatty McGee]

Muskogee, as someone who likes to dig into stats you might enjoy this:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/cfb-matrix-dave-bartoo-q-a-player-safety/

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I was pretty impressed that in one of the links above the coaches talked about percentages and what they liked to see.  These guys know their stats, numbers, percentages, etc.  I guess it's their equivalent of a job/cost report or a monthly balance sheet.  One look and you can see what's working and what's wrong.

It is obviously a valuable tool or they wouldn't go to the trouble of carefully logging all of this information. Stats aren't always the answer, but they can be a key indicator of areas that are either performing or underperforming.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

There are three types of lies- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I know that tends to be a popular thought, but statistics are merely a tool that helps indicate areas that need more attention. And, they are a valuable tool or else coaching staffs wouldn't spend the money and time to track those stats. Naturally, the only folks who ever seem to object to stats are those who aren't or have never been involved in the game.

That being said, on here, it is a good starting point for discussion and those who place no value on stats, don't have to be involved.

[Mike_e]

Here's the SEC set apart from everyone else for 8, 9, 10 & 11 win teams last year.

         Run O   Pass O   Total O   Run D   Pass D   Total D     SOS     T/O Margin
8      180.0    298.8      478.7    151.6    221.5     373.0     .621          -0.2
9      162.1    290.4      452.5    185.1    230.2     415.3     .552          +0.3
10      202.3    251.0      453.3    143.2    197.5     340.7     .515           0.0
11      202.1    251.2      453.2    130.0    188.3     318.3     .571          +0.6
Us      208.7    148.5      357.2    178.4    235.0     413.4     .574          -0.8

That will give you SEC insight.

It would appear, based on those SEC averages, that having a healthy QB for an entire season, and a good, not even great passing game that could add another 100 yards per game, and a defense that can give up just 40-50 yards less per game, along with the improvement in the major factor of T/O Margin, could vault us into a more positive situation than we have experienced the last two years.

It would be nice if you could accurately come up with a way to use SoS as a multiplier.  I think that it would bring into better focus a lot of these other numbers.

[elviscat]

A new coach and athletic director who understands razorback history.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

A new coach and athletic director who understands razorback history.

While that is nice in terms of relating to fans and Donors, it has little to do with success on the field.

[BENTON PIGGEE]

I know that tends to be a popular thought, but statistics are merely a tool that helps indicate areas that need more attention. And, they are a valuable tool or else coaching staffs wouldn't spend the money and time to track those stats. Naturally, the only folks who ever seem to object to stats are those who aren't or have never been involved in the game.

That being said, on here, it is a good starting point for discussion and those who place no value on stats, don't have to be involved.

It's not that I don't place any value on stats, it's just that I think most of the teams we play this year are going to be better than us.

[Mike_e]

It's not that I don't place any value on stats, it's just that I think most of the teams we play this year are going to be better than us.

Most people were betting on Goliath too.




Amazing what planning, preparation and performance will do.



just sayin

[ChitownHawg]

There are three types of lies- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

A phrase coined by people who don't understand statistics and continually get fooled by them. 

[ChitownHawg]

Your first response

There are three types of lies- lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Your second response

It's not that I don't place any value on stats, it's just that I think most of the teams we play this year are going to be better than us.

The second response is a legitimate position in the discussion. The first one is not. Should have started and ended with the second.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

It's not that I don't place any value on stats, it's just that I think most of the teams we play this year are going to be better than us.

That tends to be the conventional wisdom as we go through spring ball, and, with good reason based on last years results.

The thing is, even minimal improvements in certain areas can produce a bigger turnaround than expected. There is a fine line between success and failure and most don't understand how "fine" that line may actually be.

Example: 1 yard less per rush last year and 1 yard less per pass reception allowed and we end up with a #23 Total Defense in 2013.

Think that would have made a difference?

Football is a game of inches and not executing as you should makes up the very small difference between success and failure.

[Fatty McGee]

Most people were betting on Goliath too.




Amazing what planning, preparation and performance will do.



just sayin

Goliath played one game against David.  Not 12.

[Fatty McGee]

That tends to be the conventional wisdom as we go through spring ball, and, with good reason based on last years results.

The thing is, even minimal improvements in certain areas can produce a bigger turnaround than expected. There is a fine line between success and failure and most don't understand how "fine" that line may actually be.

Example: 1 yard less per rush last year and 1 yard less per pass reception allowed and we end up with a #23 Total Defense in 2013.

Think that would have made a difference?

Football is a game of inches and not executing as you should makes up the very small difference between success and failure.

True.  Look at how turnover margin can affect a team.  Sometimes the breaks go your way, which is what you need.  However, 6 games worth of breaks will be a pretty impressive streak.  I'd rather "save" that luck for a year when we need it to go undefeated.

[TheRazorback500]

No injuries, a lot of unheralded players stepping up, and a lot of breaks.

[ChitownHawg]

Goliath played one game against David.  Not 12.

Yes but they carted Goliath off the field! 

[Pig Worshipper]

We need a couple more Goliaths on our offensive and defensive lines to win eight games this next season.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

True.  Look at how turnover margin can affect a team.  Sometimes the breaks go your way, which is what you need.  However, 6 games worth of breaks will be a pretty impressive streak.  I'd rather "save" that luck for a year when we need it to go undefeated.

I think you can help make some of your own breaks and some just occur and you put yourself in a position to be able to take advantage of those when they occur, but I am not sure that you can "accrue" breaks to be used at some point in the future when you feel you are a better football team. Better just be ready to take them whenever they occur.

[31to6]

There have been many on here who have said that they would satisfied with our progress if we won 5, 6, 7 or 8 games this year. Everyone's opinions vary.

What will it take to get 8 wins?

55% completion percentage in conference games, a 9 turnover swing (up to +0) and enough improvement in the secondary to bring opponents' efficiency down into non-XBox range (conference opponents had a 173 Rating and 9.7 yards per attempt).

[LJHOG]

What will it take to get to 8 wins?

$$$ for Steve Shaw.  Lots of $$$.