What will it take to get to 8 wins?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I'm not sure the pass defense and 17 yards difference tells the whole story.  Our issue is, and has been for years, that we cannot stop anyone on 3rd or 4th down.  And I only mention 4th down, because for awhile there we had to have set the NCAA record for allowing first downs on 4th down. 

It's sort of like timely hitting in baseball.  Get guys across the plate, and you can win with only a few base runners a game.  Don't...and you'll strand them all game long, and look great for hits and BA, but you'll still lose.  We struggle to get teams off the field, so 17 yards doesn't tell the whole story in my mind. 

IMO, we will have to improve DRAMATICALLY in our back 7 next year to win 8 games, regardless of what else we do.  6 games...OK, moderate improvement, but 8 games against a pretty stacked SEC west will be a tall order.  Ole Miss needs to strike out on finding a suitable QB, same for UGA, and it wouldn't hurt if maybe a few other teams had some key injuries like we suffered with BA last season.   

Well again, I'm not meaning to be predicting that we will win 8 games, I was just interested in what everyone thought it might take for us to get to 8 wins.

And, I don't disagree that the LB's and Secondary need to improve and cover well enough to actually be able to make some plays on thrown balls. I think that if what we have heard is true, that everyone (particularly the LB's and Secondary) weren't on the same page at times on defensive calls, correcting that one thing might actually create a lot of immediate improvement.

I think it goes without saying that a healthy QB with a healed throwing shoulder will help the productivity of our passing game and it will also help if our receivers are running accurate routes on any particular pass play that is called. I'm not sure that there is anything more frustrating for a QB than receivers repeatedly not being where they are supposed to be (due to a mental mistake) when it is time to release the ball. That also tends to really aggravate O-Linemen that are protecting the QB and you don't want the big boys getting upset with you.

But the biggest thing to me is not turning the ball over. As an example, guess how many teams ranked in the top 50 in the country in T/O Margin (all with positive T/O Margins) had losing records?  Just one. I know lots of things go into that, but that has to be a focus of this team this year.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

To keep the thread going, what should we look at improving defensively to be respectable and win 8 plus games in 2014?

I think I addressed that as well in the stats in the orginal thread. Obviously T/O Margin reflects not only not turning the ball over on offense, but picking up some opponents T/O's on defense as well.

Everyone being on the same page with regard to defensive calls/alignments, actually playing our coverage area or assigned man, making a play on thrown balls, tackling better, etc.

We gave up 16 more yards per game in rushing defense than the average of teams who won 8 games last year and 17 yards more on average in passing yards allowed. On the surface and based on those numbers, it would seem that not a lot of improvement is required. But that is a bit deceiving.

We were ranked #64 in first downs allowed last season allowing 127 rushing and 127 by passing and another 12 by penalty. But Ole Miss, who went 8-5 last year, was also ranked #64 with the same number of first downs allowed.

In third down conversions allowed, Arkansas ranked #94 allowing conversions on 66 of 152 defensive third downs. Ole Miss on the other hand ranked #68 allowing conversions on 75 of 187 opportunties. That tells me that it is likely that Ole Miss forced more third down situations by not giving up as many big plays prior to third down, as we did. I think that this is another area where we need significant improvement.

[bxw21]

             Rush     Pass   Total O      Rush     Pass   Total D      T/O   SOS
8            185       244     429          159      219       378        .17  .526
9            203       235     438          150      223       373        .23  .497
10          185       265     450          152      219        371       .59  .487
11          212      285      497          138      218        356       .54  .553
Hogs       209      149      358          178      235        413      -.80  .574

I could see our passing going up to around 200/game.  That would possibly be enough to keep our running game at around the same number or even a bit better.  This would put us around 400/game or more.  Given these stats, that could get us close to 8 wins (just going off the O numbers).

If we can keep that same rush defense or improve with a little better LB play and slightly better pass defense because of more experience, then that would also put us in the 8 win range.

I'm with Muskogee on this one.  If we can improve on the turnover margin, that would be huge.  I'm not saying it will happen, but with all those improvements we would be pretty close.

I'm very much hoping that our kicking game is around the same without Hocker.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

             Rush     Pass   Total O      Rush     Pass   Total D      T/O   SOS
8            185       244     429          159      219       378        .17  .526
9            203       235     438          150      223       373        .23  .497
10          185       265     450          152      219        371       .59  .487
11          212      285      497          138      218        356       .54  .553
Hogs       209      149      358          178      235        413      -.80  .574

I could see our passing going up to around 200/game.  That would possibly be enough to keep our running game at around the same number or even a bit better.  This would put us around 400/game or more.  Given these stats, that could get us close to 8 wins (just going off the O numbers).

If we can keep that same rush defense or improve with a little better LB play and slightly better pass defense because of more experience, then that would also put us in the 8 win range.

I'm with Muskogee on this one.  If we can improve on the turnover margin, that would be huge.  I'm not saying it will happen, but with all those improvements we would be pretty close.

I'm very much hoping that our kicking game is around the same without Hocker.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it go up to around 225 and with success there, more rushing yards as well. Good news is, if that happens, it will mean we are converting on third down, extending drives, hopefully punching it into the EZ and keeping the defense off the field longer in between series.

[LZH]

But dang Led....I don't remember you being as negative as you've been this past month.  Not sure what's up with that.  I know you didn't care for BB's twitter "incidents," but there are a LOT worse things going on with other coaches.  What's up?   

I've just lost nearly all confidence in BB.  The decisions he's made seem contrary to what I feel like a true hotshot coach would make.  I actually don't doubt his football knowledge, but I do doubt his ability to translate it into wins.  Maybe he's just thickheaded - and maybe he will get it done here.....but I just don't see it right now.

[hog911]

If we ever want to see 8 wins we must take care of the football! We can't over come our turn over margin. All other statistics will take care of themselves in due time.

[BorderPatrol]

It is very obvious that at least 75% of the folks responding in this thread never read the OP.

Good stuff, Muskogee. And despite the negativity and derailing, there are some great posts in this thread.

Good to see football discussions again.

bp

[DeltaBoy]

Good information and we cannot forget the ill timed trick plays and some playcalls that blew up drives and cost us at least 2 games.

[weresoclose]

Good information and we cannot forget the ill timed trick plays and some playcalls that blew up drives and cost us at least 2 games.

Precisely.  The numbers might have been there, but the coaching wasn't.

[hogcard1964]

Considering the fact that we should have had six wins last season, 8 or 9 wins shouldn't be expecting too much.

Yes, we will have at least 8 wins.

[three hog night]

I really believe that the Hogs are going to shock a lot of people. They will be improved. There are a lot of factors that will play into this, but one of the biggest is that all those freshmen from last year will have the experience and hunger. I bet you D. Kirkland is mad as heck and is ready to get his revenge. I'm sure he's not the only one either. So here is my take on the 2014 schedule:

Note: opp. Prior week opponent in parenthesis. Series record for the last 10 years included.

August 30  at Auburn  Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL ( N/A) - gonna be a tough one for sure, but we almost always play Auburn hard. I'm going with a toss up. Series Record 5-5

September 6  Nicholls State  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Air Force) ummm, yeah we should win this one. Series Record 0-0

September 13  at Texas Tech*  Jones AT&T Stadium • Lubbock, TX – (@UTEP) not going to be a cupcake team for sure, it's at their house, but we should win this one also. Series Record 0-0

September 20  Northern Illinois*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  (@UNLV) - They don't have the QB that made them good last year. We win. Series Record 1-0

September 27  vs. Texas A&M  AT&T Stadium • Arlington, TX - (@SMU)-  Unless their D has improved, we have the potential to light them up. If we put some pressure on them defensively,  I really think we pull this one out. It's at Jerry's world again and we've played well there before.  Series Record 3-2

October 11  Alabama  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Ole Miss) I always dread playing Bama. If we improve to the level that I think we will and depending on how we do at Aubie, this could be our first loss, I hope we keep it close. Common sense says the odds are against us. Series Record 2-8

October 18  Georgia  War Memorial Stadium • Little Rock, AR – ( @Missouri)- We have not been playing well at WMS the last few years, so it may not be exactly home field advantage. Toss up. Series Record 1-3

October 25  UAB*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@ Middle Tennesse) A "bye week" in the middle of the season is always good. A win. Series Record 0-0

November 1  at Mississippi State  Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS – (@Kentucky) A tough place to play. We come off an "easy" week.  Series Record 7-3

November 15  LSU  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bama) We beat them this year. The boot will be back in Arkansas. Series Record 2-8

November 22  Ole Miss  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bye week with Presbyterian the week before) Will be a good game. Tough, physical game, but we get it done. Series Record 6-4

November 29  at Missouri  Faurot Field • Columbia, MO –(@Tenner) – This is a different team on the last game of the season that we have not played against since 2007. They were pretty good last year. At their house.  Series Record 0-1


I think it is absolutely realistic that we can win 8 games this year. I was hoping that I could add the starters lost from the opposing teams to this, but we still got a few days 'til Aubie.

I am comfortable saying 6 wins is doable.  8 Wins is asking too much.  I would be happy with 6 wins based on our talent level issues and 3 staffs in 3 years.

[Mike_e]

Good thread.

I think that we get the passing  numbers up simply by having a healthy QB for the year, maybe not all the way but close.  The thing that I recall being most upset about was the receivers just going through the motions last year.  I got that they didn't have much hope of getting the ball there due to the injury but man, at least try.

A second year of the same staff will help with this too.  Along with a blowtorch under the WR's butts.

Yes, the TOs hurt us pretty bad last year.  Confidence in our ability to move the ball will help a lot in that we can refrain from thinking that we have to get every inch and more instead of covering up as the RBs/receivers are being tackled.

The third down conversions?  Yep, those were big too.  On both sides of the ball.  We've got to make stops on D and keep going on O.  Sounds pretty cliche, an it is, but that's what it's all about.  A series of small successes leading to ultimate success.

And lastly and maybe the biggest thing:  scoring when we get into the red-zone.  A) we get the points and B)  we don't lose morale/momentum.

Success breeds success and if we can focus on our foundation and each block as we lay them, we'll be alright and we WILL get our house rebuilt!

[Dominicanhog]

youth of the Oline, BA's injury and weak WR's.

other than that they were pretty good...

.. the OP is dead on... we need consistent, above average, play from our QB... that happens and many of the other shortcomings disappear.

[three hog night]

I think I addressed that as well in the stats in the orginal thread. Obviously T/O Margin reflects not only not turning the ball over on offense, but picking up some opponents T/O's on defense as well.

Everyone being on the same page with regard to defensive calls/alignments, actually playing our coverage area or assigned man, making a play on thrown balls, tackling better, etc.

We gave up 16 more yards per game in rushing defense than the average of teams who won 8 games last year and 17 yards more on average in passing yards allowed. On the surface and based on those numbers, it would seem that not a lot of improvement is required. But that is a bit deceiving.

We were ranked #64 in first downs allowed last season allowing 127 rushing and 127 by passing and another 12 by penalty. But Ole Miss, who went 8-5 last year, was also ranked #64 with the same number of first downs allowed.

In third down conversions allowed, Arkansas ranked #94 allowing conversions on 66 of 152 defensive third downs. Ole Miss on the other hand ranked #68 allowing conversions on 75 of 187 opportunties. That tells me that it is likely that Ole Miss forced more third down situations by not giving up as many big plays prior to third down, as we did. I think that this is another area where we need significant improvement.

Our 3rd down conversions given up on Defense were partly a function of the cushion the CB's were giving WR's.  The CB's were giving 7-10 yard cushions so slants were easy to hit all day.

[ChitownHawg]

other than that they were pretty good...

Doctor says to the patient - "Other than the terminal illness your health is good!" 

[three hog night]

There have been many on here who have said that they would satisfied with our progress if we won 5, 6, 7 or 8 games this year. Everyone's opinions vary.

And everyone has their opinion as to what we need to do to get to each of those win levels. So I decided to look at the teams from last season who had won 8, 9, 10 and 11 games, just to see what they had to do to reach those win levels. I averaged the numbers of those teams in each of those win levels. I've also included the Hogs stats from last year for the sake of comparison.

As you can see, from the standpoint of rushing offense we are already among elite company. Looking at passing, we are off of the 11 win average of 285 per game by about 136 yards per game.

Defensively, we are above the 11 win  average in rush defense by about 40 yards per game and surprisingly, as bad as I thought that our pass defense was last year, there is only a difference of about 17 yards per game between us and those who won 11 games last year.

The biggest differences I see here certainly includes our passing game, but the T/O Margin is a bigger difference of 1.30. And look at the difference in SOS.

Further, what I found was that in terms of total offense, if you averaged 497 yards of total offense per game, you had a 65% chance of having double digit wins. I'm not saying we are going to have double digit wins this year, I'm just pointing out what those teams with that level of total offense were able to achieve.

So, it appears that if our passing offense can improve by about 135 yards per game, our defense shows an improvement of about 50 yards less per game and we can stop turning the ball over and gain some turnovers of our own, I think we can be significantly improved over last year.

I hope for the sake of the kids on the team and the fans that we are able to make these improvements.


             Rush     Pass   Total O      Rush     Pass   Total D      T/O   SOS
8            185       244     429          159      219       378        .17  .526
9            203       235     438          150      223       373        .23  .497
10          185       265     450          152      219        371       .59  .487
11          212      285      497          138      218        356       .54  .553
Hogs       209      149      358          178      235        413      -.80  .574

The CB's got thrown into the fire with all of the injuries in the secondary, but they gained experience as Freshman and Sophs.  I think the coaching by Jennings is starkly different from what Coley and Mitchell said in an interview.   If the cushion is reduced enough and the safeties can help; then we should be able to improve the pass defense by the 16 yards you show.   It is mostly on the safeties...

[MuskogeeHogFan]

The CB's got thrown into the fire with all of the injuries in the secondary, but they gained experience as Freshman and Sophs.  I think the coaching by Jennings is starkly different from what Coley and Mitchell said in an interview.   If the cushion is reduced enough and the safeties can help; then we should be able to improve the pass defense by the 16 yards you show.   It is mostly on the safeties...

I think that is going to depend upon the particular call, but if they are going to focus on stopping the run (which may be the emphasis at this particular moment), then I think they are going to have to play tighter on the receivers off the LOS instead being backed up 5-10 yards off the LOS and then trying to recognize, react, close quickly, bring themselves under control and make a solid tackle.

We will see what happens but I would assume that this staff is implementing in "phases" and it sounds to me like that in this particular phase, they are focusing the Secondary on recognizing and stopping the run. Should be an interesting spring game.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I've just lost nearly all confidence in BB.  The decisions he's made seem contrary to what I feel like a true hotshot coach would make.  I actually don't doubt his football knowledge, but I do doubt his ability to translate it into wins.  Maybe he's just thickheaded - and maybe he will get it done here.....but I just don't see it right now.

Come on LZH, I know that you deep down, WANT to believe. But like you, I want to see it getting done on the field. I think we have the right head man, I just think that the "equation" went terribly wrong last year and when it did, Ash failed to adjust. We'll get a better idea of whether this is true or false in the spring game, but I am witholding my judgement until next season when I expect to see substantial imrpovement, even if that doesn't include a bowl game.

[LZH]

Come on LZH, I know that you deep down, WANT to believe. But like you, I want to see it getting done on the field. I think we have the right head man, I just think that the "equation" went terribly wrong last year and when it did, Ash failed to adjust. We'll get a better idea of whether this is true or false in the spring game, but I am witholding my judgement until next season when I expect to see substantial imrpovement, even if that doesn't include a bowl game.

Oh sure, I want to believe, badly.  I also want to believe I'll make a million dollars this year, too lol.  My feelings about BB will never influence my commitment to the program, so if I 'pass judgement' due to his miserable first year, it's OK.....I'm allowed.

[ChitownHawg]

Oh sure, I want to believe, badly.  I also want to believe I'll make a million dollars this year, too lol.  My feelings about BB will never influence my commitment to the program, so if I 'pass judgement' due to his miserable first year, it's OK.....I'm allowed.

No you are not allowed to believe that - we, Bielema's Army, will dog you mercilessly until you beg for forgiveness. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Our 3rd down conversions given up on Defense were partly a function of the cushion the CB's were giving WR's.  The CB's were giving 7-10 yard cushions so slants were easy to hit all day.

You may be right about this given the fact that while Arkansas was 7th in the SEC in Yards allowed per completion last year, all of the other 6 teams that were worse than us in this category(except Kentucky), allowed lesser completion percentages vs. Opposing QB's. So that might tend to point towards opposing receivers running easier high completion percentage slants underneath the Secondary and then the opposing receivers getting good YAC.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Our 3rd down conversions given up on Defense were partly a function of the cushion the CB's were giving WR's.  The CB's were giving 7-10 yard cushions so slants were easy to hit all day.

Conversely, look at Missouri and Vandy. They allowed completion percentages in the "60's" but they limited yards per completion to the two best in the SEC with 10.4 and 9.9 respectively. The classic agenda of playing tighter coverage but keeping the receivers underneath the coverage. "Bend but don't break?"

[LZH]

No you are not allowed to believe that - we, Bielema's Army, will dog you mercilessly until you beg for forgiveness. 

Ya'll just keep piling on, cuz......I take it as a compliment.                     

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Ya'll just keep piling on, cuz......I take it as a compliment.                     

We love ya anyway, sort of.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Ya'll just keep piling on, cuz......I take it as a compliment.                     

In any case, take a look at some of the empirical data that has been provided above, since the original post, and give us your honest feedback, in the absence of any bias.

[ChitownHawg]

Ya'll just keep piling on, cuz......I take it as a compliment.                     

Rick Springfield lover! 

[LZH]

In any case, take a look at some of the empirical data that has been provided above, since the original post, and give us your honest feedback, in the absence of any bias.

I actually thought, when BB got here, that his defensive acumen would trickle down to the assistants and thereby to the team.....in other words, I really thought we'd win 6, 7, or even 8 games last year.  I figured the piss-poor attitude that had taken hold during JLS's Bozo Show would be gone - squashed by BB himself.  I thought our tackling would, believe it or not, be much improved over what we've become accustomed to in the last 5 or 6 years.  I thought Chaney working with BA would produce some positive results, and that he would put up Tyler Wilson-like numbers.  And, I just knew that with some 'real' defensive coaches on board that our back seven would finally begin to resemble an SEC defense.

None of this happened.

Not only didn't it happen, our glorious leader couldn't seem to pass up an opportunity to embarrass himself...and by extension, all of us.

So, what do I think it will take to win 8 games?  Of the four improvements listed above that I thought we'd have seen this past year, I think it's gonna take no less than three of them just to be competitive (6-6).  It is pretty clear that BB is no in-game manager.  And that's not the end of the world, just prepare ahead of time and don't be impulsive and make stupid calls (i.e. don't channel HDN).  BB has his work cut out for him, more so than any time in his entire career.  I know he will always have apologists on here, but the fact is if he doesn't win 6 games this year his ass is gonna start burning.....like it or not.

I don't have to like the guy to be in his corner - he just has to win.  I didn't like Eddie Sutton, at all.  I didn't care for Danny Ford.  Nutt got on my damn nerves, and his BS made it impossible to pull for him personally his last two years here.  But none of that has ever deterred me from being the Razorback freak that I am and have always been.

I have no problem with BB coming from the Big10.  I have no problem with the offense he wants to run.  I am even OK with fake punts and going for it on 4th and 8 inside your own 50 as long as you're trying to win.  What I am NOT OK with is running your yap when you've yet to take care of business on the football field.  I'll be alot more likely to cut the guy a break if he sticks to that and leaves the extracurricular stuff to someone else.

[LZH]

Rick Springfield lover! 

C'mon man, you know damn well he was a great guitar player.........just look at his hairdo.

[kchogfan14]

What will it take to get to 8 wins in 2014?

5 teams will need to forfeit to us.

[Hawgon]

It is pretty clear that BB is no in-game manager.  And that's not the end of the world, just prepare ahead of time and don't be impulsive and make stupid calls (i.e. don't channel HDN).  BB has his work cut out for him, more so than any time in his entire career.  I know he will always have apologists on here, but the fact is if he doesn't win 6 games this year his ass is gonna start burning.....like it or not.

I don't think that is going to get better.  That is the same complaint that Wisconsin fans for a long time.

[razorbackchamps94]

I'm hoping for 5 wins ..

[870hogfan]

I don't think that is going to get better.  That is the same complaint that Wisconsin fans for a long time.

He won 3 big ten titles what else does he have to do? Plus it will get better you just hope it doesn't so you can say you was right.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I actually thought, when BB got here, that his defensive acumen would trickle down to the assistants and thereby to the team.....in other words, I really thought we'd win 6, 7, or even 8 games last year.  I figured the piss-poor attitude that had taken hold during JLS's Bozo Show would be gone - squashed by BB himself.  I thought our tackling would, believe it or not, be much improved over what we've become accustomed to in the last 5 or 6 years.  I thought Chaney working with BA would produce some positive results, and that he would put up Tyler Wilson-like numbers.  And, I just knew that with some 'real' defensive coaches on board that our back seven would finally begin to resemble an SEC defense.

None of this happened.

Not only didn't it happen, our glorious leader couldn't seem to pass up an opportunity to embarrass himself...and by extension, all of us.

So, what do I think it will take to win 8 games?  Of the four improvements listed above that I thought we'd have seen this past year, I think it's gonna take no less than three of them just to be competitive (6-6).  It is pretty clear that BB is no in-game manager.  And that's not the end of the world, just prepare ahead of time and don't be impulsive and make stupid calls (i.e. don't channel HDN).  BB has his work cut out for him, more so than any time in his entire career.  I know he will always have apologists on here, but the fact is if he doesn't win 6 games this year his ass is gonna start burning.....like it or not.

I don't have to like the guy to be in his corner - he just has to win.  I didn't like Eddie Sutton, at all.  I didn't care for Danny Ford.  Nutt got on my damn nerves, and his BS made it impossible to pull for him personally his last two years here.  But none of that has ever deterred me from being the Razorback freak that I am and have always been.

I have no problem with BB coming from the Big10.  I have no problem with the offense he wants to run.  I am even OK with fake punts and going for it on 4th and 8 inside your own 50 as long as you're trying to win.  What I am NOT OK with is running your yap when you've yet to take care of business on the football field.  I'll be alot more likely to cut the guy a break if he sticks to that and leaves the extracurricular stuff to someone else.

Well, so much for discussing the stats, I guess?

[Mike_e]

"Well, so much for discussing the stats, I guess?"

Looks like, unless you want to talk about which personality trait ticks people off the most. 

[Hawgon]

He won 3 big ten titles what else does he have to do? Plus it will get better you just hope it doesn't so you can say you was right.

And Houston Nutt went to two SEC championship games.

[urkillnmesmalls]

I actually thought, when BB got here, that his defensive acumen would trickle down to the assistants and thereby to the team.....in other words, I really thought we'd win 6, 7, or even 8 games last year.  I figured the piss-poor attitude that had taken hold during JLS's Bozo Show would be gone - squashed by BB himself.  I thought our tackling would, believe it or not, be much improved over what we've become accustomed to in the last 5 or 6 years.  I thought Chaney working with BA would produce some positive results, and that he would put up Tyler Wilson-like numbers.  And, I just knew that with some 'real' defensive coaches on board that our back seven would finally begin to resemble an SEC defense.

None of this happened.

Not only didn't it happen, our glorious leader couldn't seem to pass up an opportunity to embarrass himself...and by extension, all of us.

So, what do I think it will take to win 8 games?  Of the four improvements listed above that I thought we'd have seen this past year, I think it's gonna take no less than three of them just to be competitive (6-6).  It is pretty clear that BB is no in-game manager.  And that's not the end of the world, just prepare ahead of time and don't be impulsive and make stupid calls (i.e. don't channel HDN).  BB has his work cut out for him, more so than any time in his entire career.  I know he will always have apologists on here, but the fact is if he doesn't win 6 games this year his ass is gonna start burning.....like it or not.

I don't have to like the guy to be in his corner - he just has to win.  I didn't like Eddie Sutton, at all.  I didn't care for Danny Ford.  Nutt got on my damn nerves, and his BS made it impossible to pull for him personally his last two years here.  But none of that has ever deterred me from being the Razorback freak that I am and have always been.

I have no problem with BB coming from the Big10.  I have no problem with the offense he wants to run.  I am even OK with fake punts and going for it on 4th and 8 inside your own 50 as long as you're trying to win.  What I am NOT OK with is running your yap when you've yet to take care of business on the football field.  I'll be alot more likely to cut the guy a break if he sticks to that and leaves the extracurricular stuff to someone else.

So....to sum up your thoughts, if I may put words in your mouth, this would be your answer. 

"A new head coach."   

I haven't been around BB personally, so I'll defend some of what may have caused your perception.  I think he made a HUGE mistake by portraying an image that was so confident that he was going to at least improve on the previous season during media days, and he did himself an injustice.  I'm not sure I would say he embarrassed anyone, and especially not when you compare it what CBP did at the Cotton Bowl, JLS did with "smile" type press conferences, and last but certainly not least, BP's Harley-Gate.

Now, having said that, his demeanor on the sideline is hard to understand.  I would liken it to watching David Duval playing golf.  Unknowingly, David Duval was the best thing that ever happened to Tiger Woods.  After watching Duval, Tiger made watching golf a relative thrill, because at least you saw SOMETHING.  With BB, you can't tell if we we're up 21, or down 21.  I think that stoic "even keel" behavior comes across as smug sometimes, which just serves to foster those who think he's overly confident. 

That's as far as I'll go toward defending him.  And I say those things because I like what I hear about him from the players, and how he interacts with fans.  I truly feel like there's a dichotomy there, and that it's probably unfair to judge him based solely on what we've seen to this point.  He certainly seemed VERY HUMBLED by the end of the season, and I will be SHOCKED if we see him at this year's media days begging people to pick us last, as if he knows something no one else knows.  I think he, LIKE MANY HOG FANS, grossly over estimated the talent and experience on the team, and just assumed that he couldn't help but improve on what Smiley had done.  He got to see what happens when you ASSume something.

...and don't get me started on the Twitter responses to the UW fans.  If he's going to be active on Twitter for recruiting purposes, then I'm fine with that.  But if anything negative comes along, he should have a pat response all ready to go...."Thank you for your input, and have a great day," and just LET IT GO.     

[Hawgon]

I don't want him humbled.  I like cocky.  I want him to be cocky.  I just want him to be smart cocky, not dumb picking fights on Twitter cocky. 

[870hogfan]

And Houston Nutt went to two SEC championship games.

So Houston Nutt is a better coach than Petrino?

[LZH]

Well, so much for discussing the stats, I guess?

I reckon I'm not too sure what there is to discuss.  You've outlined everything really well, so I think it's pretty clear what we have to do.  Me, I'm not so much a stats guy - a la the 'Randy Moss Ratio'.  Stats certainly do tell a story, but I think they are just as indicative of players and athleticism as they are anything.  If we had a go-to WR and BA had performed decently, then the stats would surely reflect that.  Conversely, if we could have snagged another takeaway, made a few more tackles, and BA had completed a couple extra 40-yard passes per game would we have gone 9-3?  I highly doubt it.

But there's no doubting what the stats point to......QB.  We MUST have better QB play this year if we're to have any shot of a decent season.  If I remember right, we had as many INT's as we did TD's last year.  That statistic is the motherload right there, the golden goose.  I don't really care what the other stats are, if your TD/INT ratio is 1/1 or even close to it, you aren't gonna win any SEC games outside of sheer dumb luck.  Which kinda goes back to my post yesterday – BB is coaching for his job in two years...Chaney is coaching for his right now.  Solve our pitiful QB play and we solve a major piece of the puzzle....if not - 'down goes Chaney'.

As for the other stats, I'll be here to run thru whatever ya want – I'm just not sure what else we're analyzing.  You've laid it all out in plain English, and awfully well I might add.

Back in the late 80's I knew an old head that was a total baseball freak....total.  He would spit out MLB stats 24/7.  Playing golf?  So-and-so hit .308 in 1976.  Sittin' around watching HBO and catchin' a buzz?  Whats-his-name had 80 wins from 1964-1968.  And I don't care for MLB, haven't watched it since the strike twenty years ago.  So I guess hearing those stats over and over and over have somewhat hardened me to stats of any kind, or at least cause them to go in one ear and out the other.   

[LZH]

I truly feel like there's a dichotomy there

Isn't that where they erase your memory?...........where do I sign?

[Hawgon]

So Houston Nutt is a better coach than Petrino?

According to you he was.

[urkillnmesmalls]

Isn't that where they erase your memory?...........where do I sign?

No, silly head, that's a lobotomy, and it's not that selective.  You can't just tell the Neurosurgeon that you want the memory of the last two football seasons erased, and all of the toxins and resins removed.     Although that might be a good thing for most Hog fans right? 

It's when a perception is different from reality.  Like when we kept hearing on national TV that "parents want to send their kids to play for HDN, because he's a man of faith and will teach them to be good young men.  It's why Mortensen's kid went to the UA" when in reality, it turned out to be exactly the opposite.

I will give you one thing.  BB's made himself a target by being outspoken.  That comes with the territory.  Come year three...if things aren't going well, that spotlight will be a little more intense just by virtue of the things he said in the outset.  It was bold to say that he has no doubt that we will compete with Bama, etc., because that perception will follow him now.  He laid it out there...no one else.  That's a long measuring stick, provided Saban hangs around....     

[Hawgon]

He said he did all the Twitter stuff because that ups Arkansas' profile with recruits.  Lane Kiffin said the same things about all the secondary violations that Tennessee was getting.  I know it didn't work out for Kiffin the way he thought it would.  I guess we'll see for BB.  I just want to win and win big.

[LZH]

No, silly head, that's a lobotomy, and it's not that selective. 

I don't know whether I need a frontal lobotomy or a bottle in front of me............

[The Hogfather]

Not much.

[urkillnmesmalls]

I don't know whether I need a frontal lobotomy or a bottle in front of me............

Good example.  If BB tweeted that out as a joke, it would make ESPN within 10 minutes.  "Apparently, going 0-8 in the SEC last season has given Bret Bielema a reason to drink."

A lot of stuff happened last year, but I have a favorite.  When UW lost to AZ (Heck, I can't even remember for sure who it was now), and Jen tweeted "Karma," it was self-explanatory what she meant.  Now...it was probably directed at the hateful fans, and not the UW fan base as a whole, but if she honestly didn't think ahead enough to know how that was going to be perceived, then that is PRECISELY why the twitter thing scares me.  How could you NOT see that coming?  Cannon Fodder.       

 

[LZH]

Good example.  If BB tweeted that out as a joke, it would make ESPN within 10 minutes.  "Apparently, going 0-8 in the SEC last season has given Bret Bielema a reason to drink."

A lot of stuff happened last year, but I have a favorite.  When UW lost to AZ (Heck, I can't even remember for sure who it was now), and Jen tweeted "Karma," it was self-explanatory what she meant.  Now...it was probably directed at the hateful fans, and not the UW fan base as a whole, but if she honestly didn't think ahead enough to know how that was going to be perceived, then that is PRECISELY why the twitter thing scares me.  How could you NOT see that coming?  Cannon Fodder.       

 

I would certainly be sending texts and emails to my friends if I wanted to poke fun at moronic fans, but the head coach and his ol' lady MUST be above directly exchanging jabs with those goobers...in public or in private.

[sportster365]

There have been many on here who have said that they would satisfied with our progress if we won 5, 6, 7 or 8 games this year. Everyone's opinions vary.

And everyone has their opinion as to what we need to do to get to each of those win levels. So I decided to look at the teams from last season who had won 8, 9, 10 and 11 games, just to see what they had to do to reach those win levels. I averaged the numbers of those teams in each of those win levels. I've also included the Hogs stats from last year for the sake of comparison.

As you can see, from the standpoint of rushing offense we are already among elite company. Looking at passing, we are off of the 11 win average of 285 per game by about 136 yards per game.

Defensively, we are above the 11 win  average in rush defense by about 40 yards per game and surprisingly, as bad as I thought that our pass defense was last year, there is only a difference of about 17 yards per game between us and those who won 11 games last year.

The biggest differences I see here certainly includes our passing game, but the T/O Margin is a bigger difference of 1.30. And look at the difference in SOS.

Further, what I found was that in terms of total offense, if you averaged 497 yards of total offense per game, you had a 65% chance of having double digit wins. I'm not saying we are going to have double digit wins this year, I'm just pointing out what those teams with that level of total offense were able to achieve.

So, it appears that if our passing offense can improve by about 135 yards per game, our defense shows an improvement of about 50 yards less per game and we can stop turning the ball over and gain some turnovers of our own, I think we can be significantly improved over last year.

I hope for the sake of the kids on the team and the fans that we are able to make these improvements.


             Rush     Pass   Total O      Rush     Pass   Total D      T/O   SOS
8            185       244     429          159      219       378        .17  .526
9            203       235     438          150      223       373        .23  .497
10          185       265     450          152      219        371       .59  .487
11          212      285      497          138      218        356       .54  .553
Hogs       209      149      358          178      235        413      -.80  .574

So again our defense wasn't as bad as everybody said they were or at least isn't as much to blame for such a horrible season last year.

Although they can stand much improvement, these stats reflect that our offense is a bigger reason why we couldn't reach 6 wins this past season. Our turnovers and inability to move the ball through the air sacked us.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

So again our defense wasn't as bad as everybody said they were or at least isn't as much to blame for such a horrible season last year.

Although they can stand much improvement, these stats reflect that our offense is a bigger reason why we couldn't reach 6 wins this past season. Our turnovers and inability to move the ball through the air sacked us.

Look at some more and you might alter your opinion. My opinion changed a little when I saw this.

Our 3rd down conversions given up on Defense were partly a function of the cushion the CB's were giving WR's.  The CB's were giving 7-10 yard cushions so slants were easy to hit all day.

You may be right about this given the fact that while Arkansas was 7th in the SEC in Yards allowed per completion last year, all of the other 6 teams that were worse than us in this category(except Kentucky), allowed lesser completion percentages vs. Opposing QB's. So that might tend to point towards opposing receivers running easier high completion percentage slants underneath the Secondary and then the opposing receivers getting good YAC.

Conversely, look at Missouri and Vandy. They allowed completion percentages in the "60's" but they limited yards per completion to the two best in the SEC with 10.4 and 9.9 respectively. The classic agenda of playing tighter coverage but keeping the receivers underneath the coverage. "Bend but don't break?"

I'll grant you that our lack of a passing game due to an injured QB and no one capable of stepping up and executing at a high level hurt us, and it probably hurt the effectiveness of our running game as well, even though based on rush averages per game, we were right there with what 11 win teams averaged as well, and the most amazing part was, EVERYONE WE PLAYED, knew we had an injured QB and were going to run most of the time.

We achieved really good rushing numbers despite everyone knowing what we were going to do. How much more effective and productive can it be when we have a QB who provides the threat of throwing the ball?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

If you guys want to talk football instead of just flaming against the HC or our philosophy, here is your chance. For all those who want to talk football, read the thread and chime in. If you just want to flame on Bielema because you don't like him and aren't willing to talk stats and how they relate to our future potential success, move on.