What will it take to get to 8 wins?

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I respect your ability in crunching numbers. But your premise is based on what those numbers would have done in the past. Our enemies are not as static as that.

Remember a few years back, when Ryan Mallett and Aaron Murphy had a shoot out in Fayetteville? That game was as much an anomaly as any I've seen this century. And the odds going into the game...ended up meaningless.

I do think we will see MORE running game this year than last. As such, it's harder to get to 400+. Especially if we become predictable. The good news is, that 375 benchmark may be easier this year BECAUSE our enemies will be skittish to throw themselves, with newbies behind center.

We may very well see more running, but it will be because the safeties respect the pass more this year.

[LZH]

It would be really something if the O-Line improved over last year given that they were 3rd in the nation last year in sacks allowed (1 in every 37.6 passing attempts-8 for the season) and were a better rushing offense than Alabama last year (#21 to Alabama's #25).

We did alot of 3 and 5 step drops last year which may have skewed the numbers at bit....we never went vertical so we never used 7 step drops.  Anyway, it wasn't our "offense" or our "passing game" that killed us, it was execution.  Our offense, for the most part, was fine.  Our QB's and our WR's were a major problem, as we all know.  Other than that, we had enought talent in place to play alot better than we actually did.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I am encouraged about this. 'Third down must have'...is a gutcheck situation every fourth snap.

And experience really contributes to gutchecks. 2013 was the year of newbies for us. 2014....we have some experience.

But what does it take for us to get to 8 wins? Both sides of the ball? Check the stats I originally posted and go from there based on your own opinion.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

I am encouraged about this. 'Third down must have'...is a gutcheck situation every fourth snap.

And experience really contributes to gutchecks. 2013 was the year of newbies for us. 2014....we have some experience.

I agree that experience will help on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, what do you think? I am a little concerned that there will be another year of learning involved. Being out of position killed us last year.

[Steef]

I agree that experience will help on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, what do you think? I am a little concerned that there will be another year of learning involved. Being out of position killed us last year.

We're going to enjoy 'out of position' for at least two more years. Until the secondary players from the 2013-15 classes can learn their jobs.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I am encouraged about this. 'Third down must have'...is a gutcheck situation every fourth snap.

And experience really contributes to gutchecks. 2013 was the year of newbies for us. 2014....we have some experience.

I think the attitude will be there. I think the talent and ability will be there. I think the coaching will be there. We get all three of those elements working WITH each other and our PR guys will finally get some meaningful PT.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

We're going to enjoy 'out of position' for at least two more years. Until the secondary players from the 2013-15 classes can learn their jobs.

That's the sad part. They have been through more coaches the last few years doing a different scheme, that their heads must be swirlin' right now.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

We're going to enjoy 'out of position' for at least two more years. Until the secondary players from the 2013-15 classes can learn their jobs.

I hope it doesn't take that long. For now, I just would like to see improvement from last year. I haven't heard how different the defensive scheme will be this year or how well the players are adapting.

[Dark Helmet Hog]

But what does it take for us to get to 8 wins? Both sides of the ball? Check the stats I originally posted and go from there based on your own opinion.

Total O surpassing total D is a good place to start.

[three hog night]

Actually, I agree with that and it is the main reason I am disgusted with this staff.    I figure a staff of even Nutt level would have at least lucked into one or two more wins.  Instead, we actually invented ways to lose.

Do you get tired being a broken record of negativity? 

[three hog night]

The more you two whine, the more fun it is.

This is the crux of the problem with some of you.   There is an element on message boards that gets joy out of jerking some people's chains.  That is not being a fan on a fan board; that is being a jerk on a fan board. 

[LZH]

Do you get tired being a broken record of negativity? 

Hasn't seemed to slow me down any.......

[three hog night]

Hasn't seemed to slow me down any.......

Yes you are consistent

[LZH]

Yes you are consistent

If I'm annoying anyone, they should switch sides.............problem solved.           

[Hawgon]

Odd comment, coming from a professing Christian.

Irony...you has it.

[ChitownHawg]

If I'm annoying anyone, they should switch sides.............problem solved.           

Nah you are easy to handle. Just know that 1/3 of what you say is wrong, 1/3 is made up and 1/3 is just you joking around. 

Once a person views your posts from that perspective they can accept you comments. All in good fun.

[RNHog]

What will it take to get 8 wins?

Let all the hogville quarterbacks have control of the playbook. Duh.

[LZH]

Nah you are easy to handle. Just know that 1/3 of what you say is wrong, 1/3 is made up and 1/3 is just you joking around. 

Once a person views your posts from that perspective they can accept you comments. All in good fun.

bug, I'm not sure if that's a compliment, or a shot to the groin that in my perpetually confused and altered state I won't even realize for another hour or two.

[Pigsrus]

8 wins - now that is a good one!  What is that thing about Pigs flying.

[Inhogswetrust]

Despite all this BS, can we just get back to topic?

I liked your original post and the time and thoughts it took to start the thread. However I don't believe anyone is purposely trying to "derail this thread". When a thread is started and discussion is encouraged then in any debate there are usually some things said that might veer away from the original thoughts and perceived intents. You yourself have veered off course in this thread somewhat.

[Inhogswetrust]

Question is, can we just get to 429 yds in total offense and 375 in total defense? If we can, we win a minimm of 8 this year.

The question should be not IF but HOW.

[Danny J]

Will take our back seven playing really well and coming together as a team and absorbing the coaching. I just don't see how we get to 8 this year but the year after we should be much improved when some of these younger players get more experience.

[HawgFan70]

He isn't just assuming great improvement he is assuming that it will basically double in effectiveness.  That is Rick Shafferesque. 

"Well, you know Chuck, if we can hold them here, score quick, recover two onsides kicks and score, then we'll only be down two touchdowns...and with five minutes left, it's anybody's ballgame."

I don't know where these receivers we are counting on came from. Maybe they think true freshmen or JUCO guys who had 1 other offer will save our passing game but other than that we have the exact same WR's as last year. The D I believe has some stars on it but until we get SEC LB's don't expect drastic changes in my opinion.

[ChitownHawg]

bug, I'm not sure if that's a compliment, or a shot to the groin that in my perpetually confused and altered state I won't even realize for another hour or two.

It is kind of both. 

[Inhogswetrust]

bug, I'm not sure if that's a compliment, or a shot to the groin that in my perpetually confused and altered state I won't even realize for another hour or two.

Perpetually confused and altered state? That would be Colorado wouldn't it?

[ZERO]

I'm not saying that we will improve to 8 wins either, but if you look at the stats at the top of the page, and the difference between us last year and those teams that won 8 or more games, we aren't that far off. Better passing game, stopping the run, everyone on defense being on the same page on calls and turning around the T/O Margin will be key, but none of that is beyond being possible.

Check the stats I provided.

I think a big reason your stats are not far off is because we lost three games by a touchdown or less. That would be 6-6 right there, and then of course we would have a weak Bowl opponent for a chance for 7 wins. We'd only be in one under 8 wins.

I really do think it's mostly the turnovers. Those were real momentum killers, especially the ones that were timed as badly as some of the interceptions we threw. And as far as the secondary needing to improve only marginally, it makes a lot of sense when you consider that they also didn't force many turnovers last year. A pick six (or even just an interception) is better than a three-and-out any day. If we had the difference of even ONE turnover, we could have won all three of the games we lost by a touchdown or less.

[Hawgon]

The question should be not IF but HOW.

That is the question.  That is what I was getting at.  Tell me something besides that the QB is older, the players more used to the coaches, and that the coaches will be better this year than last year.  Those are all examples of wishful thinking, not facts.  Now, wishful thinking is wonderful and sometimes it turns out to be right, but that doesn't change the fact that until it happens, it is nothing more than wishful thinking.

[LZH]

Perpetually confused and altered state? That would be Colorado wouldn't it?

Not necessarily.  Complete sobriety is totally overrated....even in Arkansas.

[Inhogswetrust]

Not necessarily.  Complete sobriety is totally overrated....even in Arkansas.

Amen and pass the joint or alcohol. Whichever is handier to reach........................................

[LZH]

Amen and pass the joint or alcohol. Whichever is handier to reach........................................

Pharmaceuticals are the new reefer.

[Steef]

Perpetually confused and altered state? That would be Colorado wouldn't it?

That brought a chuckle.

[Inhogswetrust]

Pharmaceuticals are the new reefer.

But too damn expensive!

P.S. In California reefer IS a pharmaceutical. I guess they will do whatever it takes to keep people from moving out of state!

[Hawgon]

Colorado is going to start kicking arse in recruiting.

[PORKULATOR]

Beat Auburn and we win 8. Beat Auburn AND Georgia and we win 9.

[PORKULATOR]

Not necessarily.  Complete sobriety is totally overrated....even in Arkansas.

I'll applaud your comment til my hands bleed..... seeing as how I'm loaded, I won't feel it.

[PORKULATOR]

Amen and pass the joint or alcohol. Whichever is handier to reach........................................

What do you mean?.?.?.? reach? What does anything mean, maaaaaann.

[tusksincolorado]

Colorado is going to start kicking arse in recruiting.

Not really....The Buffs are just going to give Old Pizz a run for their money in recruiting advantages for potency, and $MU-barn with their synthetics.

[GuvHog]

A much better defense and a great deal of improvement from the QB.

[12247]

Nice thread Muskogee.  Your stats point out that improvement in a few areas  might relate to wins.

I looked at the schedule of the conference teams we play I see Geo as being better than last year, Bama, MSU, LSU, and Ole Miss as being about the same and Aubbie, A&M and MO as being worse, at least at the times we play them.

Against Aubbie, we need to play well for 4 quarters.  If we win this game, we should go undefeated this coming season.  But we won't win.  May not even be close.  This game should tell everyone how much we've improved over last season and not much more.

We must come out and smoke Nichols State.  I don't mean run for 350 yards and get the 4th team RBs 50 yards each, I mean PRACTICE are weakness, the passing attack.  Two QBs need to throw and throw well and we need WRs catching balls all over the field and Hunter Henry running something besides straight up the field and catching 2 or 3 for the game.  Same thing on D.  We need to beat Nichols States brains out with tackles for loss, incompleted passes, D backs knocking the snot out of potential pass catchers and no major mistakes.  We must look like a real team against this rent a win for 4 quarters.

Next HUGE game is Texas Tech and we gotta go win that one on the road.  They will test the D and the D must respond.  We should expect to not be perfect here but the offense MUST carry the day.  Again, I expect to run the ball on everyone we play but we must pass it anytime we wish and against TT, that will be important.

N. Ill should be another game where the O and D learn and get deeper.

If we've learned to play our best, the A&M game is winnable.  By now we should have confidence that we can stand our ground against anyone.  The D will need to be coming along very well for us to win and the O will need to show that we can pass and run at will.

Take the Bama butt kicking, but learn and improve in this game.

Geo will be huge.  If Geo smokes us, then we haven't learned much, but if we play very well and maybe win, which I doubt, this is a season changing game.

UAB should give the 2nd teamers lots of practice which they need and this rent a win should be easy.

By the MSU game, our QB situation should be in very good shape and this team should be smoking hot.  By now our D backfield should still be average but a dependable average, not totally ready to fail at the hint of any real pressure like we've seen the past few years.  Our QB should be a leader with a dependable backup QB at the ready. 

The injury bug may have ruined us by this stage but if not, any or all the last 4 games of the season are winnable.

At the end of the day, week, month and season, there is one member of this team far more important than any other and will totally determine if we can attain 8 wins this season.  I assume Brett Bielema makes all final calls for scheme and individual plays or appoints who will make those calls.  If this particular phase of the game doesn't vastly improve over last season, we simply do not have enough talent on this team to overcome poor and incorrect game planning and win even 6 games.

Brett's planning starts the end of last season.  He isn't limited to practicing 2 hours per day or just so many practices before the first game of the season.  No excuse for not having at least 2 QBs that can heave the damn ball downstream or someone who can even if its luck, break one on the special teams on occasion.  Out of roughly 100 players available, surely we can find someone either fast enough, quick enough or strong enough to get enough away from a D back to catch a thrown ball in addition Henry who needs to see more than 2 to 4 thrown his way per game this season.  In addition, we need to see if Henry can run left or right, maybe zig or zag.  I hope if we plan to pull a loss from the jaws of victory this season, its done by a kid in his late teens or early 20s and not by a staff of 30s and up folks playing coach position.

If we can develop decent QB play, improve the D backfield to just bad and not god awful, find something special in the special teams and improve overall coaching, we got a chance to win 6 and if the Gods are with us, maybe 8.  I point out that is a tremendous amount of improvement to expect in one season.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

That's the sad part. They have been through more coaches the last few years doing a different scheme, that their heads must be swirlin' right now.

I certainly agree with that. 4th DC in as many years.

[BENTON PIGGEE]

Become an Auburn fan?

[ckhawgu]

If we were to improve 135yds per game, based on 2013 stats:

#1) Improve Total Offense Plus 135yds: 357yds + 135 =  492yds

We would have ended up ranked somewhere around 15th in the NCAA in that specific category. At #'s 15 & 16 respectively, you have both San Jose St @ 493yds & Missouri at 491yds per game. Being in the top 15 in this category would be respectable as Texas A&M @ #4 and Auburn @ #11 are the only two teams from the SEC ranked higher in this segment per 2013 stats.

Taking the 135yds into consideration for both rushing and passing totals...

#2) Improve Total Rushing Offense Plus 35yds: 209yds + 35 = 244yds

This would place between the 13th and 14th ranked teams, respectively, Baylor @ 260yds & Toledo @ 241yds per game. This should be an easy achievement with the expected running game improvements to be made in 2014 as we were ranked 21st in this category in 2013 as it was. Auburn would have been the only team that ranked ahead of us in this category @ #1 for 2013. Missouri was 16th in this category as the only other SEC team to be ranked in the top 20 for this statistic.

#3) Improve Total Passing Offense Plus 100yds = 149yds + 100 = 249yds

Adding the remaining 100yds to the 2013 passing totals where we were ranked @ #114 for 2013, we would be ranked right in between both Colorado & Maryland at the 47th & 48th positions respectively. Would this be enough to move us into respectability in the SEC for 2014? To put this piece into perspective, Alabama was @ 49th, LSU was @ 44, Missouri was @ 41, South Carolina @ 40, Ole Miss @ 23 & lastly, Georgia @ 15 for 2013 passing totals. So from an SEC perspective, only five teams would have had a higher ranking than we would if we could find another 100yds per game. I would venture to say that is a fair position to be in when you have the type of running game we should have going forward!

Other offensive ranking intangibles surrounding these base 2013 statistics to be aware of positionally for areas of improvement:

Team Passing Efficiency @ #109
Completion Percentage @ #116
3rd Down Conversions @ #55
Scoring Offense @ #105
Red Zone Offense @ #91
Turnover Margin @ #111
Turnovers Lost @ #79

To keep the thread going, what should we look at improving defensively to be respectable and win 8 plus games in 2014?

[root_hawg]

6 wins good season, 8 great season

[Hawg_Thai'd]

To keep the thread going, what should we look at improving defensively to be respectable and win 8 plus games in 2014?

If two things happen, our defense, compared to the last two seasons, will be night and day:
More pressure from the D-Line and run stopping.
Secondary being in sync with each other and holding to assignments.


If those two things happen, we will most certainly see an overall improvement.

[urkillnmesmalls]

They say that football is a game of inches, and if you look at these stats, spread out over entire games, that is obviously true. The most minor errors (and bad luck) can put you in a position where a string of plays go against you, instead of being in your favor. The averages I illustrated prove that out. While everything is important, it sure looks like T/O Margin and who you play has a great deal to do with your level of "luck" that can make a season go one way, or the other.

I'm not sure the pass defense and 17 yards difference tells the whole story.  Our issue is, and has been for years, that we cannot stop anyone on 3rd or 4th down.  And I only mention 4th down, because for awhile there we had to have set the NCAA record for allowing first downs on 4th down. 

It's sort of like timely hitting in baseball.  Get guys across the plate, and you can win with only a few base runners a game.  Don't...and you'll strand them all game long, and look great for hits and BA, but you'll still lose.  We struggle to get teams off the field, so 17 yards doesn't tell the whole story in my mind. 

IMO, we will have to improve DRAMATICALLY in our back 7 next year to win 8 games, regardless of what else we do.  6 games...OK, moderate improvement, but 8 games against a pretty stacked SEC west will be a tall order.  Ole Miss needs to strike out on finding a suitable QB, same for UGA, and it wouldn't hurt if maybe a few other teams had some key injuries like we suffered with BA last season.   

[urkillnmesmalls]

We did alot of 3 and 5 step drops last year which may have skewed the numbers at bit....we never went vertical so we never used 7 step drops.  Anyway, it wasn't our "offense" or our "passing game" that killed us, it was execution.  Our offense, for the most part, was fine.  Our QB's and our WR's were a major problem, as we all know.  Other than that, we had enought talent in place to play alot better than we actually did.

The "sacks allowed" stat doesn't tell the whole story at all.  Rarely did BA even attempt to check down and go through progressions, and I think at least part of that was that once our WR's got past about 25 yards down field, he couldn't hit them anyway post injury.  Consequently, he fired a BUNCH of passes into the 1st row just to prevent mistakes or sacks. 

I also think the pass defense stat is misleading.  Where we fail is on 3rd down, when it matters the most, and that doesn't show up in the "17 yards less" than the top teams statement. 

But dang Led....I don't remember you being as negative as you've been this past month.  Not sure what's up with that.  I know you didn't care for BB's twitter "incidents," but there are a LOT worse things going on with other coaches.  What's up?   

[ckhawgu]

Where we fail is on 3rd down, when it matters the most...

Just looking at this piece, we were eaten alive last year on defense when we needed to make a stop and get out on 3rd down, as well as, not being able to stop teams on 4th down conversions either...

For 3rd down conversion % on Defense, we ranked 94th @ .434% per game. Kentucky may have been the ONLY team worse than we were on this stat for 2013.

For 4th down conversions, we ranked 105th @ .643% per game. It looks like both Kentucky and Tennessee were worse off than us in this category.

So to your point above, we couldn't stop anyone when we had to in those games for the most part!

[JIHawg]

I think we get to eight wins this year if we don't have a lot of injuries.  We will be improved on offense and defense.  We didn't lose much.  We improved our coaching.  We have most of Bielema's stuff installed, so time can be spent on getting better, fine tuning, etc. this year.  The players mentality will be better than last year.  All this bodes well.  Our QB play will be better.  It all adds up to more victories-6?  8?  We'll need some luck but we're due some.

[go hogues]

We will be a vastly improved team but all the other teams will too and they have all recruited circles around us the past few years. The 2010 class was the worst, 2011 not much better, we basically lost the 2012 class and 2013 was the first real class in almost four years.
Add to that having to overcome a "losers" mentality on this team that has set in over two extremely difficult seasons, both on and off the field.

I think this staff will get it done and I respect the team, I just think anyone expecting a bowl game, much less 8 wins, is setting themselves up for serious frustration.

I think we'll go 4-8 and yes, I'll be at almost every game cheering loudly for my Hogs.

[Andrew Hogfan]

Win the TO battle and we win 8 games