What will it take to get to 8 wins?

[MuskogeeHogFan]

There have been many on here who have said that they would satisfied with our progress if we won 5, 6, 7 or 8 games this year. Everyone's opinions vary.

And everyone has their opinion as to what we need to do to get to each of those win levels. So I decided to look at the teams from last season who had won 8, 9, 10 and 11 games, just to see what they had to do to reach those win levels. I averaged the numbers of those teams in each of those win levels. I've also included the Hogs stats from last year for the sake of comparison.

As you can see, from the standpoint of rushing offense we are already among elite company. Looking at passing, we are off of the 11 win average of 285 per game by about 136 yards per game.

Defensively, we are above the 11 win  average in rush defense by about 40 yards per game and surprisingly, as bad as I thought that our pass defense was last year, there is only a difference of about 17 yards per game between us and those who won 11 games last year.

The biggest differences I see here certainly includes our passing game, but the T/O Margin is a bigger difference of 1.30. And look at the difference in SOS.

Further, what I found was that in terms of total offense, if you averaged 497 yards of total offense per game, you had a 65% chance of having double digit wins. I'm not saying we are going to have double digit wins this year, I'm just pointing out what those teams with that level of total offense were able to achieve.

So, it appears that if our passing offense can improve by about 135 yards per game, our defense shows an improvement of about 50 yards less per game and we can stop turning the ball over and gain some turnovers of our own, I think we can be significantly improved over last year.

I hope for the sake of the kids on the team and the fans that we are able to make these improvements.


             Rush     Pass   Total O      Rush     Pass   Total D      T/O   SOS
8            185       244     429          159      219       378        .17  .526
9            203       235     438          150      223       373        .23  .497
10          185       265     450          152      219        371       .59  .487
11          212      285      497          138      218        356       .54  .553
Hogs       209      149      358          178      235        413      -.80  .574

[three hog night]

This is some good data!   
I would say that the nuances on offense are:
-Oline play should improve as we won't be starting 2 true freshman
-WR play should improve.  WR was so weak last year, that defenses did not have to commit the safeties to coverage support over the top.   The defenses were able to use the safeties on blitzes and run support.
-QB play should improve with a 2nd year starter, that was injured yet improved a LOT the last 3 games of the season as he was healing.  Can he become a confident leader?  Will he be able to trust the improved Oline and WR play?
-RB is going to get better but one area that may be forgotten is that defenses were not threatened by our WR's so they could use their safeties in RUN support...and we still ran the ball very well.  The WR's appear to be better and should take away the Safeties from Run support.  How much difference does that make when JW, AC or KM get in the second level??

[opineonswine]

I think it would take a lot of luck to win 8 next year.  Beyond that we must have a MUCH improved defense, particularly the back 7, and a much more efficient passing game.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

This is some good data!   
I would say that the nuances on offense are:
-Oline play should improve as we won't be starting 2 true freshman
-WR play should improve.  WR was so weak last year, that defenses did not have to commit the safeties to coverage support over the top.   The defenses were able to use the safeties on blitzes and run support.
-QB play should improve with a 2nd year starter, that was injured yet improved a LOT the last 3 games of the season as he was healing.  Can he become a confident leader?  Will he be able to trust the improved Oline and WR play?
-RB is going to get better but one area that may be forgotten is that defenses were not threatened by our WR's so they could use their safeties in RUN support...and we still ran the ball very well.  The WR's appear to be better and should take away the Safeties from Run support.  How much difference does that make when JW, AC or KM get in the second level??

It would be really something if the O-Line improved over last year given that they were 3rd in the nation last year in sacks allowed (1 in every 37.6 passing attempts-8 for the season) and were a better rushing offense than Alabama last year (#21 to Alabama's #25).

[razorbacksnum1]

Throw the ball to Hunter Henry more...he was underutilized last year. Need more balance on offense. Defense must get more 3 and outs.

[three hog night]

It would be really something if the O-Line improved over last year given that they were 3rd in the nation last year in sacks allowed (1 in every 37.6 passing attempts-8 for the season) and were a better rushing offense than Alabama last year (#21 to Alabama's #25).

I am sorry about the Oline reference and respect your views about the oline.  They were good after the True Freshman became starters, but the Offense had to be pared down/simplified because of the youth of the Oline, BA's injury and weak WR's.

[three hog night]

Some stats for BA that say he will be better this year.

ULL
Arkansas   C/ATT   YDS   AVG   TD   INT
Allen           15/22   230   10.5   3   0

Samford  (We ran for 333 yards)
Arkansas   C/ATT   YDS   AVG   TD   INT
Allen            9/17   125   7.4     2   0

So Miss
Injured in first quarter

Did he play bad against ULL and Samford?  The stats don't say so.

Did he improve over the season?  Yes and it paralleled the healing of his shoulder.

After he returned from a game off against Rutgers, he had the following completion percentages:
47%
41%
33%
28%
45%

Then he started getting better after the open dates to finish with the following completion percentages:
Ole Miss   56%
Misstake   59%
LSU          65%

Do you see a trend here?   

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I think it would take a lot of luck to win 8 next year.  Beyond that we must have a MUCH improved defense, particularly the back 7, and a much more efficient passing game.

They say that football is a game of inches, and if you look at these stats, spread out over entire games, that is obviously true. The most minor errors (and bad luck) can put you in a position where a string of plays go against you, instead of being in your favor. The averages I illustrated prove that out. While everything is important, it sure looks like T/O Margin and who you play has a great deal to do with your level of "luck" that can make a season go one way, or the other.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Some stats for BA that say he will be better this year.

ULL
Arkansas   C/ATT   YDS   AVG   TD   INT
Allen           15/22   230   10.5   3   0

Samford  (We ran for 333 yards)
Arkansas   C/ATT   YDS   AVG   TD   INT
Allen            9/17   125   7.4     2   0

So Miss
Injured in first quarter

Did he play bad against ULL and Samford?  The stats don't say so.

Did he improve over the season?  Yes and it paralleled the healing of his shoulder.

After he returned from a game off against Rutgers, he had the following completion percentages:
47%
41%
33%
28%
45%

Then he started getting better after the open dates to finish with the following completion percentages:
Ole Miss   56%
Misstake   59%
LSU          65%

Do you see a trend here?   

I don't think that there is any doubt that he played better the last game of the season than he had previously. Heck, he played pretty well vs. A&M if you take away his "picks".

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I am sorry about the Oline reference and respect your views about the oline.  They were good after the True Freshman became starters, but the Offense had to be pared down/simplified because of the youth of the Oline, BA's injury and weak WR's.

It matters little why this or that was done, point is, this O-Line, that everyone wants to point as a cause of our woes last year, really did an outstanding job. Given a healthy, serviceable QB and Receiver's that had ran crisp patterns, we would have seen a different scenario on offense last year. The OL and RB's were there, QB and Receivers? Not so much.

[three hog night]

As for the defense, I think the LB's may be serviceable and the CB's will surprise us; BUT the safeties are the real concern.  The safeties were thinking too much about a new system that required great safety play.  The safeties did not provide coverage support for the CB's so they were usually on an island.   The safeties were so out of position that they weren't even capable of providing run support.

[three hog night]

It matters little why this or that was done, point is, this O-Line, that everyone wants to point at as a cause of our grief last year, really did an outstanding job. Given a healthy, serviceable QB and Receiver's that had ran crisp patterns, we would have seen a different scenario on offense last year. The OL and RB's were there, QB and Receivers? Not so much.

VERY TRUE.  The Oline that started the season was more of what I was concerned about, and then how we had to start 2 true freshman.  The WR's couldn't get off the line and when they did, they didn't run crisp routes.   QB play was shaky at best.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

As for the defense, I think the LB's may be serviceable and the CB's will surprise us; BUT the safeties are the real concern.  The safeties were thinking too much about a new system that required great safety play.  The safeties did not provide coverage support for the CB's so they were usually on an island.   The safeties were so out of position that they weren't even capable of providing run support.

The Secondary played "confused" last season from what we have heard from the coaching staff and  on top of that, for some inexplicable reason, the front four, LB's and Secondary frequently weren't all on the same page as to the call. How any decent DC who has coached at a high level could allow that to happen, I am not sure.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I really believe that the Hogs are going to shock a lot of people. They will be improved. There are a lot of factors that will play into this, but one of the biggest is that all those freshmen from last year will have the experience and hunger. I bet you D. Kirkland is mad as heck and is ready to get his revenge. I'm sure he's not the only one either. So here is my take on the 2014 schedule:

Note: opp. Prior week opponent in parenthesis. Series record for the last 10 years included.

August 30  at Auburn  Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL ( N/A) - gonna be a tough one for sure, but we almost always play Auburn hard. I'm going with a toss up. Series Record 5-5

September 6  Nicholls State  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Air Force) ummm, yeah we should win this one. Series Record 0-0

September 13  at Texas Tech*  Jones AT&T Stadium • Lubbock, TX – (@UTEP) not going to be a cupcake team for sure, it's at their house, but we should win this one also. Series Record 0-0

September 20  Northern Illinois*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  (@UNLV) - They don't have the QB that made them good last year. We win. Series Record 1-0

September 27  vs. Texas A&M  AT&T Stadium • Arlington, TX - (@SMU)-  Unless their D has improved, we have the potential to light them up. If we put some pressure on them defensively,  I really think we pull this one out. It's at Jerry's world again and we've played well there before.  Series Record 3-2

October 11  Alabama  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Ole Miss) I always dread playing Bama. If we improve to the level that I think we will and depending on how we do at Aubie, this could be our first loss, I hope we keep it close. Common sense says the odds are against us. Series Record 2-8

October 18  Georgia  War Memorial Stadium • Little Rock, AR – ( @Missouri)- We have not been playing well at WMS the last few years, so it may not be exactly home field advantage. Toss up. Series Record 1-3

October 25  UAB*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@ Middle Tennesse) A "bye week" in the middle of the season is always good. A win. Series Record 0-0

November 1  at Mississippi State  Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS – (@Kentucky) A tough place to play. We come off an "easy" week.  Series Record 7-3

November 15  LSU  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bama) We beat them this year. The boot will be back in Arkansas. Series Record 2-8

November 22  Ole Miss  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bye week with Presbyterian the week before) Will be a good game. Tough, physical game, but we get it done. Series Record 6-4

November 29  at Missouri  Faurot Field • Columbia, MO –(@Tenner) – This is a different team on the last game of the season that we have not played against since 2007. They were pretty good last year. At their house.  Series Record 0-1


I think it is absolutely realistic that we can win 8 games this year. I was hoping that I could add the starters lost from the opposing teams to this, but we still got a few days 'til Aubie.

[three hog night]

I really believe that the Hogs are going to shock a lot of people. They will be improved. There are a lot of factors that will play into this, but one of the biggest is that all those freshmen from last year will have the experience and hunger. I bet you D. Kirkland is mad as heck and is ready to get his revenge. I'm sure he's not the only one either. So here is my take on the 2014 schedule:
Note: opp. Prior week opponent in parenthesis. Series record for the last 10 years included.
August 30  at Auburn  Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL ( N/A) - gonna be a tough one for sure, but we almost always play Auburn hard. I'm going with a toss up. Series Record 5-5
September 6  Nicholls State  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Air Force) ummm, yeah we should win this one. Series Record 0-0
September 13  at Texas Tech*  Jones AT&T Stadium • Lubbock, TX – (@UTEP) not going to be a cupcake team for sure, it's at their house, but we should win this one also. Series Record 0-0
September 20  Northern Illinois*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  (@UNLV) - They don't have the QB that made them good last year. We win. Series Record 1-0
September 27  vs. Texas A&M  AT&T Stadium • Arlington, TX - (@SMU)-  Unless their D has improved, we have the potential to light them up. If we put some pressure on them defensively,  I really think we pull this one out. It's at Jerry's world again and we've played well there before.  Series Record 3-2
October 11  Alabama  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Ole Miss) I always dread playing Bama. If we improve to the level that I think we will and depending on how we do at Aubie, this could be our first loss, I hope we keep it close. Common sense says the odds are against us. Series Record 2-8
October 18  Georgia  War Memorial Stadium • Little Rock, AR – ( @Missouri)- We have not been playing well at WMS the last few years, so it may not be exactly home field advantage. Toss up. Series Record 1-3
October 25  UAB*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@ Middle Tennesse) A "bye week" in the middle of the season is always good. A win. Series Record 0-0
November 1  at Mississippi State  Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS – (@Kentucky) A tough place to play. We come off an "easy" week.  Series Record 7-3
November 15  LSU  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bama) We beat them this year. The boot will be back in Arkansas. Series Record 2-8
November 22  Ole Miss  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bye week with Presbyterian the week before) Will be a good game. Tough, physical game, but we get it done. Series Record 6-4
November 29  at Missouri  Faurot Field • Columbia, MO –(@Tenner) – This is a different team on the last game of the season that we have not played against since 2007. They were pretty good last year. At their house.  Series Record 0-1


I think it is absolutely realistic that we can win 8 games this year. I was hoping that I could add the starters lost from the opposing teams to this, but we still got a few days 'til Aubie.

This looks to have great detail and you put some serious work into this.  I'm gonna have to pack a lunch to read this and interpret!  LOL

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I really believe that the Hogs are going to shock a lot of people. They will be improved. There are a lot of factors that will play into this, but one of the biggest is that all those freshmen from last year will have the experience and hunger. I bet you D. Kirkland is mad as heck and is ready to get his revenge. I'm sure he's not the only one either. So here is my take on the 2014 schedule:
Note: opp. Prior week opponent in parenthesis. Series record for the last 10 years included.
August 30  at Auburn  Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL ( N/A) - gonna be a tough one for sure, but we almost always play Auburn hard. I'm going with a toss up. Series Record 5-5
September 6  Nicholls State  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Air Force) ummm, yeah we should win this one. Series Record 0-0
September 13  at Texas Tech*  Jones AT&T Stadium • Lubbock, TX – (@UTEP) not going to be a cupcake team for sure, it's at their house, but we should win this one also. Series Record 0-0
September 20  Northern Illinois*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  (@UNLV) - They don't have the QB that made them good last year. We win. Series Record 1-0
September 27  vs. Texas A&M  AT&T Stadium • Arlington, TX - (@SMU)-  Unless their D has improved, we have the potential to light them up. If we put some pressure on them defensively,  I really think we pull this one out. It's at Jerry's world again and we've played well there before.  Series Record 3-2
October 11  Alabama  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Ole Miss) I always dread playing Bama. If we improve to the level that I think we will and depending on how we do at Aubie, this could be our first loss, I hope we keep it close. Common sense says the odds are against us. Series Record 2-8
October 18  Georgia  War Memorial Stadium • Little Rock, AR – ( @Missouri)- We have not been playing well at WMS the last few years, so it may not be exactly home field advantage. Toss up. Series Record 1-3
October 25  UAB*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@ Middle Tennesse) A "bye week" in the middle of the season is always good. A win. Series Record 0-0
November 1  at Mississippi State  Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS – (@Kentucky) A tough place to play. We come off an "easy" week.  Series Record 7-3
November 15  LSU  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bama) We beat them this year. The boot will be back in Arkansas. Series Record 2-8
November 22  Ole Miss  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bye week with Presbyterian the week before) Will be a good game. Tough, physical game, but we get it done. Series Record 6-4
November 29  at Missouri  Faurot Field • Columbia, MO –(@Tenner) – This is a different team on the last game of the season that we have not played against since 2007. They were pretty good last year. At their house.  Series Record 0-1


I think it is absolutely realistic that we can win 8 games this year. I was hoping that I could add the starters lost from the opposing teams to this, but we still got a few days 'til Aubie.

I appreciate the effort in putting that together. Could you go back and separate the games into paragraphs so it is more easily read?

[CallThemHawgs!]

8 wins?

It would take moving to the Mountain West to get 8 wins, and even then, it would be a nail biter.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

8 wins?

It would take moving to the Mountain West to get 8 wins, and even then, it would be a nail biter.

If you read the thread, I am not saying we will get to 8 wins, I was merely showing you what 8, 9, 10 and 11 win teams did to win that number of games as compared to our stats.

After checking out the stats, I would appreciate your honest input as opposed to just checking in to take a shot at the team and the staff.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I appreciate the effort in putting that together. Could you go back and separate the games into paragraphs so it is more easily read?

Sorry 'bout that. For some reason I can't get the message thing to work right. When I'm typing, I get down so far and it starts jumping back to the top of my message. I can't get the emoticons or the bold/italic/underline etc. features to work either. Guess I'm not holding my mouth right.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Sorry 'bout that. For some reason I can't get the message thing to work right. When I'm typing, I get down so far and it starts jumping back to the top of my message. I can't get the emoticons or the bold/italic/underline etc. features to work either. Guess I'm not holding my mouth right.

Looks like it worked, nice edit my friend. Far more easy to read.

[ChitownHawg]

I really believe that the Hogs are going to shock a lot of people. They will be improved. There are a lot of factors that will play into this, but one of the biggest is that all those freshmen from last year will have the experience and hunger. I bet you D. Kirkland is mad as heck and is ready to get his revenge. I'm sure he's not the only one either. So here is my take on the 2014 schedule:

Note: opp. Prior week opponent in parenthesis. Series record for the last 10 years included.

August 30  at Auburn  Jordan–Hare Stadium • Auburn, AL ( N/A) - gonna be a tough one for sure, but we almost always play Auburn hard. I'm going with a toss up. Series Record 5-5

September 6  Nicholls State  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Air Force) ummm, yeah we should win this one. Series Record 0-0

September 13  at Texas Tech*  Jones AT&T Stadium • Lubbock, TX – (@UTEP) not going to be a cupcake team for sure, it's at their house, but we should win this one also. Series Record 0-0

September 20  Northern Illinois*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  (@UNLV) - They don't have the QB that made them good last year. We win. Series Record 1-0

September 27  vs. Texas A&M  AT&T Stadium • Arlington, TX - (@SMU)-  Unless their D has improved, we have the potential to light them up. If we put some pressure on them defensively,  I really think we pull this one out. It's at Jerry's world again and we've played well there before.  Series Record 3-2

October 11  Alabama  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@Ole Miss) I always dread playing Bama. If we improve to the level that I think we will and depending on how we do at Aubie, this could be our first loss, I hope we keep it close. Common sense says the odds are against us. Series Record 2-8

October 18  Georgia  War Memorial Stadium • Little Rock, AR – ( @Missouri)- We have not been playing well at WMS the last few years, so it may not be exactly home field advantage. Toss up. Series Record 1-3

October 25  UAB*  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR – (@ Middle Tennesse) A "bye week" in the middle of the season is always good. A win. Series Record 0-0

November 1  at Mississippi State  Davis Wade Stadium • Starkville, MS – (@Kentucky) A tough place to play. We come off an "easy" week.  Series Record 7-3

November 15  LSU  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bama) We beat them this year. The boot will be back in Arkansas. Series Record 2-8

November 22  Ole Miss  Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium • Fayetteville, AR  - ( Bye week with Presbyterian the week before) Will be a good game. Tough, physical game, but we get it done. Series Record 6-4

November 29  at Missouri  Faurot Field • Columbia, MO –(@Tenner) – This is a different team on the last game of the season that we have not played against since 2007. They were pretty good last year. At their house.  Series Record 0-1


I think it is absolutely realistic that we can win 8 games this year. I was hoping that I could add the starters lost from the opposing teams to this, but we still got a few days 'til Aubie.

We could be 5-0 coming into Bama, but doubtful. More like 3-2, but I will be praying for your outcome! 

[HawgFan70]

Obvious wins
Nicholis St
Northers Ill
UAB

Should win

Texas Tech
Miss St
Leaves us needing to go 3-4 against the meat of the schedule I thinkk our best chances to get 3 wins are
Georgia in Little Rock
Texas A&M in Arlington
Ole Miss in Fayetville.

I don't think we get to 8 wins this year but in my opinion these are the 8 if we do

[Hawg_Thai'd]

We could be 5-0 coming into Bama, but doubtful. More like 3-2, but I will be praying for your outcome! 

Not tryin' to fill the forum full of sunshine, but we will play Auburn hard. Was Cam playing for them when we beat them in their house before? Anyways, if we beat Auburn we very likely play Bama at 5-0. 4-1 won't be too bad either.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

Obvious wins
Nicholis St
Northers Ill
UAB

Should win

Texas Tech
Miss St
Leaves us needing to go 3-4 against the meat of the schedule I thinkk our best chances to get 3 wins are
Georgia in Little Rock
Texas A&M in Arlington
Ole Miss in Fayetville.

I don't think we get to 8 wins this year but in my opinion these are the 8 if we do

I'm not saying that we will improve to 8 wins either, but if you look at the stats at the top of the page, and the difference between us last year and those teams that won 8 or more games, we aren't that far off. Better passing game, stopping the run, everyone on defense being on the same page on calls and turning around the T/O Margin will be key, but none of that is beyond being possible.

Check the stats I provided.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

I think we will have a better chance to beat LSU in Fayetteville than we will at beating Georgia in Little Rock. Go ahead and smite me if you wish, but I got a feeling about this one.

[weresoclose]

We will be 2-3 at best coming into the Bama game.  I'm not sure what y'all are smoking..

[ChitownHawg]

Not tryin' to fill the forum full of sunshine, but we will play Auburn hard. Was Cam playing for them when we beat them in their house before? Anyways, if we beat Auburn we very likely play Bama at 5-0. 4-1 won't be too bad either.

There is a chance we beat Auburn, but I am firmer in the camp that we will be competitive. The reason being is I am not sure our defense will be ready. Now Gus will have to game plan for a DC he has not seen. It should be a fun game.

[ChitownHawg]

I think we will have a better chance to beat LSU in Fayetteville than we will at beating Georgia in Little Rock. Go ahead and smite me if you wish, but I got a feeling about this one.

Ok I smited you. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but you told me to smite you. So I did. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

We will be 2-3 at best coming into the Bama game.  I'm not sure what y'all are smoking..

Just a suggestion. Check the stats at the beginning of the thread and make an insightful post based on that instead of just coming in making your usual negative comments. You seem to be big on stats (your stats anyway), so look above and in the absence of bias (though I know that will be difficult) make a post that actually contributes to the thread.

[HawgFan70]

I'm not saying that we will improve to 8 wins either, but if you look at the stats at the top of the page, and the difference between us last year and those teams that won 8 or more games, we aren't that far off. Better passing game, stopping the run, everyone on defense being on the same page on calls and turning around the T/O Margin will be key, but none of that is beyond being possible.

Check the stats I provided.

You are assuming our passing game will be drastically improved and our D makes huge improvements. Hard to base stats off your projections

[MuskogeeHogFan]

There is a chance we beat Auburn, but I am firmer in the camp that we will be competitive. The reason being is I am not sure our defense will be ready. Now Gus will have to game plan for a DC he has not seen. It should be a fun game.

I agree with this.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You are assuming our passing game will be drastically improved and our D makes huge improvements. Hard to base stats off your projections

Yes, I am. Healthy QB with a healed shoulder, receivers running their routes and our run defense being better while the Secondary (surprisingly) needs to make some improvement, but not the amount that I once thought that they needed to make, based on the averages of successful teams that I illustrated.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

We will be 2-3 at best coming into the Bama game.  I'm not sure what y'all are smoking..

maybe you should try some. It might help your attitude towards life. We will beat NIU and Nicholls St. TT is not a powerhouse. Look at their record last year after the 7th game. They tanked when they started playing some "decent" Big 12 teams. We are undefeated in Jerry's world against aTm. No more Johnny Bravo and his sidekick Evans this year. I don't even want to hear about the #1 QB coming in. He will be a true Freshman that will take about 2 hits from Flowers and/or Philon and he will be begging for a redshirt. I know the Arkansas team that everybody saw last year. I did too. But you will see a different team this year. Book it!

[weresoclose]

Just a suggestion. Check the stats at the beginning of the thread and make an insightful post based on that instead of just coming in making your usual negative comments. You seem to be big on stats (your stats anyway), so look above and in the absence of bias (though I know that will be difficult) make a post that actually contributes to the thread.

You have to factor intangibles, for which there are several.

Anyway, I believe we will get to 8 wins in 2015!  (Just not 2014.)  If not....

I am not concerned about Ws in 2014 so much.  One (1) SEC win is an improvement.  I do require that much.  But in 2015.....

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Ok I smited you. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but you told me to smite you. So I did. 

fair 'nough

[fortsmithokie]

Obvious wins
Nicholis St
Northers Ill
UAB

Should win

Texas Tech
Miss St
Leaves us needing to go 3-4 against the meat of the schedule I thinkk our best chances to get 3 wins are
Georgia in Little Rock
Texas A&M in Arlington
Ole Miss in Fayetville.

I don't think we get to 8 wins this year but in my opinion these are the 8 if we do

I'd put TTech as a tossup right now. Unless the back seven shows some serious improvement, Arkansas could easily lose this game to a less talented team, especially in Lubbock, where any game-changing calls almost always favor TTech. 

[MuskogeeHogFan]

You have to factor intangibles, for which there are several.

Anyway, I believe we will get to 8 wins in 2015!  (Just not 2014.)  If not....

I am not concerned about Ws in 2014 so much.  One (1) SEC win is an improvement.  I do require that much.  But in 2015.....

By all means, list them, as it relates to this thread. Did you ever look at the stats or are you still just shooting from the hip?

[Inhogswetrust]

ALL of the above posts brings a lot of good useful information to the discussion. I believe that IF we were to change the TO to a positive number and do better on passing d we will be just fine. Of course the question would become HOW do you effect change on the TO's when playing a SOS as high as ours. Really good teams don't have a lot TO's.

[ChitownHawg]

I'd put TTech as a tossup right now. Unless the back seven shows some serious improvement, Arkansas could easily lose this game to a less talented team, especially in Lubbock, where any game-changing calls almost always favor TTech.

I am not sure how old you are, but as an old time Hog fan I know we always get the benefit of the calls. I cannot think of a game where we were screwed over.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

You have to factor intangibles, for which there are several.

Anyway, I believe we will get to 8 wins in 2015!  (Just not 2014.)  If not....

I am not concerned about Ws in 2014 so much.  One (1) SEC win is an improvement.  I do require that much.  But in 2015.....

Intagibles such as injuries? Weather? Locations? Experience? Give me some time with my Farmer's Almanac. I will have those answers shortly.

[MuskogeeHogFan]

ALL of there above posts brings a lot of good useful information to the discussion. I believe that IF we were to change the TO to a positive number and do better on passing d we will be just fine. Of course the question would become HOW do you effect change on the TO's when playing a SOS as high as ours. Really good teams don't have a lot TO's.

As I have said several times, if you look at the stats, our passing defense is not that far off, surprisingly. I think most of our negative numbers in the passing game comes from big plays where Safeties were out of position and not providing "over the top" coverage and we got hit for the big plays.

Bigger areas of concern in retrospect, stopping the run, improved passing to compliment our running game, receivers running crisp, accurate patterns, the defense all being on the same page with regard to any defensive call.

[HawgFan70]

I'd put TTech as a tossup right now. Unless the back seven shows some serious improvement, Arkansas could easily lose this game to a less talented team, especially in Lubbock, where any game-changing calls almost always favor TTech.

I was just trying to find a scenario that gets us to 8 wins. I agree on Texas Tech our secondary and lb's will need to be much improved plus Lubbock is a tough place to go win. I personally think we win 4-5 games next year. Nich St, UAB, Northern Ill, 1 SEC game and Texas tech being a tossup

[Inhogswetrust]

I am not sure how old you are, but as an old time Hog fan I know we always get the benefit of the calls. I cannot think of a game where we were screwed over.

I can't think of one fan base overall that doesn't believe they aren't screwed over by the Refs at some point. Refs make mistakes but to think they do so on purpose is ludicrous.

[HawgFan70]

As I have said several times, if you look at the stats, our passing defense is not that far off, surprisingly. I think most of our negative numbers in the passing game comes from big plays where Safeties were out of position and not providing "over the top" coverage and we got hit for the big plays.

Bigger areas of concern in retrospect, stopping the run, improved passing to compliment our running game, receivers running crisp, accurate patterns, the defense all being on the same page with regard to any defensive call.

I will be skeptical on the amount the D can improve until we have some SEC LB's on the roster. I just don't see any, I hope Otha comes back and is one but I don't know

[MuskogeeHogFan]

I can't think of one fan base overall that doesn't believe they aren't screwed over by the Refs at some point. Refs make mistakes but to think they do so on purpose is ludicrous.

If there is one place to get screwed by home field officials, it is in Lubbock.

[Inhogswetrust]

As I have said several times, if you look at the stats, our passing defense is not that far off, surprisingly. I think most of our negative numbers in the passing game comes from big plays where Safeties were out of position and not providing "over the top" coverage and we got hit for the big plays.

Bigger areas of concern in retrospect, stopping the run, improved passing to compliment our running game, receivers running crisp, accurate patterns, the defense all being on the same page with regard to any defensive call.

Agree very much in a need for more passing or should I say more effective passing.

[Inhogswetrust]

If there is one place to get screwed by home field officials, it is in Lubbock.

Haha. I bet even the Refs don't like it there! Happiness is Lubbock Texas in the Rearview Mirror.

[Hawg_Thai'd]

Let me give my view on the Secondary real quick. First, what did we REALLY lose from last year? The best players from last year: they probably had either bad coaching or no coaching in 2012 as someone pointed out earlier. They were young to the game and had to rely on what was given to them which was very little. Then Chris Ash comes in in 2013 and institutes a defensive scheme that really takes some studying to grasp with all the reads and checks and clicks and beebs. SO, its no wonder that there were some guys in the secondary out of position last year. Now we have guys back that are healthy and I really think we got a good DC and a Secondary coach now. What you saw last year will not be repeated this year.

[HawgFan70]

Let me give my view on the Secondary real quick. First, what did we REALLY lose from last year? The best players from last year: they probably had either bad coaching or no coaching in 2012 as someone pointed out earlier. They were young to the game and had to rely on what was given to them which was very little. Then Chris Ash comes in in 2013 and institutes a defensive scheme that really takes some studying to grasp with all the reads and checks and clicks and beebs. SO, its no wonder that there were some guys in the secondary out of position last year. Now we have guys back that are healthy and I really think we got a good DC and a Secondary coach now. What you saw last year will not be repeated this year.

That makes me feel better. Here I was thinking we had the best coaching staff in America last year. Im glad we have better ones this year

[Hawgon]

You are assuming our passing game will be drastically improved and our D makes huge improvements. Hard to base stats off your projections

He isn't just assuming great improvement he is assuming that it will basically double in effectiveness.  That is Rick Shafferesque. 

"Well, you know Chuck, if we can hold them here, score quick, recover two onsides kicks and score, then we'll only be down two touchdowns...and with five minutes left, it's anybody's ballgame."