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Author Topic: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?  (Read 1072 times)

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-Blu

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Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« on: February 18, 2013, 10:08:19 am »

Looking at the remaining Schedules, I believe we can finish in the top 4 in the SEC, the question now is will the SEC be considered strong enough to let 4 teams in.  The top 4 teams IMO will be 1. Flordia, 2. Alabama, 3. Ole Miss 4. Arkansas.  I believe we will get that fourth spot and Kentucky and Missouri will be the teams left out.

Here's my prediction for the razorbacks last few games.

UGA - W
@FL - L
@LSU - W
vs UK - W
@Mizz - L
TAM - W
Conference Record 11-7

Kentucky

Van - W
Mizz - W
MSST - W
@Ark - L
@UGA - L
FL - L
Conference Record 11-7

Missouri

FL - L
@UK - L
@SCAR - W
vs LSU - W
vs Ark - W
@Tenn - L

Conference Record 10-8

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Breems

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #1 on: February 18, 2013, 10:13:23 am »

I just don't know that I can give us the LSU game.

We never play well there and O'Bryant/Hickey will be a real problem. I suppose it depends on which Marshawn Powell we get.
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jry04

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #2 on: February 18, 2013, 10:15:35 am »

Even though Alabama has a good conference record, they have played the easiest schedule out of any team in the conference. They do not have to play UK, Missouri, Arkansas, Florida, or Ole Miss twice. They got Auburn and MSU twice, though. I have no idea how they lucked into that schedule, but it could actually end up hurting them. They have played 0 games vs the RPI top 25, and are 1-3 vs the RPI top 50. UK is that 1 top 50 win, and they could be dropping out of the top 50 soon. They have 4 losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. They have to travel to Ole Miss, Florida, and LSU down the stretch, plus play UGA. I think they end up losing 3 more and miss the NCAAT barring a great run in the SECT. They could end up being like some of the former MSU or Ole Miss teams where they finish high in the SEC, but miss due to poor non-conference losses and no quality conference wins. Hard to make the NCAAT as a bubble team when you don't have any quality wins.
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hogfan1003

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2013, 11:47:10 am »

CBS Sports is saying the SEC only gets 3 teams (Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri) to the big dance.  They have Alabama and KEntucky listed as "Probably out."  This was posted last night around 7.  Thoughts?
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jthill

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #4 on: February 18, 2013, 12:01:33 pm »

Looking at the remaining Schedules, I believe we can finish in the top 4 in the SEC, the question now is will the SEC be considered strong enough to let 4 teams in.  The top 4 teams IMO will be 1. Flordia, 2. Alabama, 3. Ole Miss 4. Arkansas.  I believe we will get that fourth spot and Kentucky and Missouri will be the teams left out.

Here's my prediction for the razorbacks last few games.

UGA - W
@FL - L
@LSU - W
vs UK - W
@Mizz - L
TAM - W
Conference Record 11-7

Kentucky

Van - W
Mizz - W
MSST - W
@Ark - L
@UGA - L
FL - L
Conference Record 11-7

Missouri

FL - L
@UK - L
@SCAR - W
vs LSU - W
vs Ark - W
@Tenn - L

Conference Record 10-8

I think you might be a bit high on UK or perhaps I'm penalizing them too much for the blow out against Tenn. Otherwise I think you're spot on with the other predictions. Going to take a lot of bubble teams going down and the smaller conferences only getting 1 team in for the SEC to get 4 in. Right now I only see 3 from the SEC getting in but Bama and Ole Miss better watch out. They're not real solid in my opinion. A stumble down the stretch could sink both.
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jry04

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2013, 12:02:06 pm »

CBS Sports is saying the SEC only gets 3 teams (Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri) to the big dance.  They have Alabama and KEntucky listed as "Probably out."  This was posted last night around 7.  Thoughts?
That is just a prediction of what would happen if the season ended today. Missouri, Arkansas, and Alabama all have opportunities to jump in, though. Personally, I agree with CBS. If the season ended today I would not have UK in.
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hogfan1003

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2013, 12:13:05 pm »

I was just looking at Georgia's last 5 games.  They are 3-2 with a home win against A&M and road wins at Tennessee and South Carolina.  Glad we have them at home at this point!
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Breems

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2013, 12:15:22 pm »

I was just looking at Georgia's last 5 games.  They are 3-2 with a home win against A&M and road wins at Tennessee and South Carolina.  Glad we have them at home at this point!

Even still, they're a cause for concern after coming off an emotional game. Hopefully we beat the dog out of them and don't fall for a trap game.
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jry04

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2013, 01:44:17 pm »

Even still, they're a cause for concern after coming off an emotional game. Hopefully we beat the dog out of them and don't fall for a trap game.
They are coming off an emotional game too, though. They may come in and be competitive, but we could come out with confidence, while UGA is still spent after their OT loss @ Ole Miss.
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Danny J

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2013, 02:55:54 pm »

I don't think there is a set number of teams that will get in from any specific conference. I could still see the SEC get 6 teams or only 3 with these two teams for sure:

UF
Ole Miss

UK
Ark
Mizzou
Bama

I can see a scenario where all 6 get in. Don't forget the SECt champ either. Sometimes a team comes out of nowhere.
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Jackrabbit Hog

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2013, 03:08:02 pm »

Hate that I'm even typing this, but don't sleep on Tennessee passing several teams between now and the end of the season.  Stokes is finally playing consistently, and Golden has come on since Cuonzo took the reins off of the defense.  I sure don't want to play them in the SEC tournament.
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jry04

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2013, 04:04:13 pm »

Hate that I'm even typing this, but don't sleep on Tennessee passing several teams between now and the end of the season.  Stokes is finally playing consistently, and Golden has come on since Cuonzo took the reins off of the defense.  I sure don't want to play them in the SEC tournament.
They aren't making the NCAAT unless they win it all, and they won't win it all.

Sorry, but I wouldn't put too much stock into them beating a Noel-less UK team at home. They will lose at least 3 more.
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Dogtown Donkey

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2013, 04:06:37 pm »

Hate that I'm even typing this, but don't sleep on Tennessee passing several teams between now and the end of the season.  Stokes is finally playing consistently, and Golden has come on since Cuonzo took the reins off of the defense.  I sure don't want to play them in the SEC tournament.

They have one good SEC win (Alabama). And that was a game Bama coughed up at home.
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GatorsGators

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2013, 04:40:33 pm »

They have one good SEC win (Alabama). And that was a game Bama coughed up at home.
They do still have opportunities to get some quality SEC wins, though. They get Florida and Missouri both at home. The Wichita State win OOC will help them as well, and the win over UMass is a neutral-court win against a bubble team.

They're in a similar situation to Arkansas. If they can finish out with only one or two more losses then they could sneak in with a solid SECT showing.

Alabama is in a bad position. They're currently on the outside looking in, and they don't have many chances left to better their resume. If they can manage a road win against Florida and/or Ole Miss and win the rest then they'll have a decent chance, but they still might need to make a run to the SEC championship game. Their weak SEC schedule will come back to bite them most likely, as will basically their whole December schedule.

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jry04

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2013, 07:52:39 pm »

They do still have opportunities to get some quality SEC wins, though. They get Florida and Missouri both at home. The Wichita State win OOC will help them as well, and the win over UMass is a neutral-court win against a bubble team.

They're in a similar situation to Arkansas. If they can finish out with only one or two more losses then they could sneak in with a solid SECT showing.

Alabama is in a bad position. They're currently on the outside looking in, and they don't have many chances left to better their resume. If they can manage a road win against Florida and/or Ole Miss and win the rest then they'll have a decent chance, but they still might need to make a run to the SEC championship game. Their weak SEC schedule will come back to bite them most likely, as will basically their whole December schedule.


Their best win is over #33 RPI Wichita State. They have 0 top 25 wins, and are 2-4 vs top 50. UK is one of those top 50, and they will likely fall out. They do have opportunities to improve their resume, but as of right now they're no where near the discussion. We have 3 wins better than their 1, and have a better record overall and in conference. We beat them convincingly. I expect UT to lose at least two more, but possibly 3. Unless they win out, they won't be leap frogging us if we if finish with 20 wins.
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ErieHog

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2013, 08:08:27 pm »

The absolute maximum the SEC is getting is 4 bids; right now, it's a 50/50 shot that it drops to 3.

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GatorsGators

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2013, 09:16:52 pm »

Their best win is over #33 RPI Wichita State. They have 0 top 25 wins, and are 2-4 vs top 50. UK is one of those top 50, and they will likely fall out. They do have opportunities to improve their resume, but as of right now they're no where near the discussion.

That's just not true. They're not quite in the discussion, but they're close.

Quote
We have 3 wins better than their 1, and have a better record overall and in conference.

Conference record means nothing. See: Alabama 2011 vs. Georgia 2011. Arkansas has better wins, obviously. Arkansas also has worse losses and a worse RPI and SOS.

Quote
We beat them convincingly.

At Arkansas. Also, head-to-head results mean nothing. See: Alabama 2011 vs. Georgia 2011.

Quote
I expect UT to lose at least two more, but possibly 3.

Good for you. This is the "what if" game. I don't expect them to make the tournament either, nor do I expect Arkansas to win two of their three remaining road games, but that's irrelevant in this discussion.

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Hoggish1

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #17 on: February 18, 2013, 09:43:32 pm »

Have no idea how you put Missouri in the group left out.  Florida is the first taken out of the SEC and Mizzou is the 2nd.
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jry04

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #18 on: February 18, 2013, 10:05:13 pm »

That's just not true. They're not quite in the discussion, but they're close.

Conference record means nothing. See: Alabama 2011 vs. Georgia 2011. Arkansas has better wins, obviously. Arkansas also has worse losses and a worse RPI and SOS.

At Arkansas. Also, head-to-head results mean nothing. See: Alabama 2011 vs. Georgia 2011.

Good for you. This is the "what if" game. I don't expect them to make the tournament either, nor do I expect Arkansas to win two of their three remaining road games, but that's irrelevant in this discussion.


You can dissect, and take out of context what you want. However, if we have a better overall record, better conference record, more top 50 wins, and beat them head to head, then we will get the nod before them. UT isn't even in the top 12 of the next teams out, while Arkansas is 9th.
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GatorsGators

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #19 on: February 18, 2013, 10:36:59 pm »

UT isn't even in the top 12 of the next teams out, while Arkansas is 9th.

According to whom? Lunardi, a mediocre (at best) bracketologist? Okay.

Quote
You can dissect, and take out of context what you want. However, if we have a better overall record, better conference record, more top 50 wins, and beat them head to head, then we will get the nod before them.

So how do you explain Georgia getting in over Alabama in 2011? It doesn't fit the scenario you posted exactly, but it's pretty close. They had the same record (21-11), but Alabama had a much better conference record (12-4 to 9-7) and TWO head-to-head victories over Georgia (one on a neutral court in the SECT). Georgia had one more top 50 win over Alabama, but also had a much worse winning percentage against the same group (3-10 vs. 2-5).

Hypothetically speaking (this is all hypothetical, not whether or not you think it will happen), if Arkansas wins all of its home games and beats LSU while losing to UF and MU, they will be 4-6 vs. the Top 50 (assuming Kentucky stays in the Top 50) and 7-9 vs the Top 100 (assuming LSU and Georgia stay out of the Top 100). They'd have an RPI of about 61 and their SOS is projected to be around 67 (RPIforecast).

If Tennessee can win two of their three big RPI games remaining (@A&M, Florida, Missouri) and win the others (I don't think this will actually happen, just saying what if), then they'll be 3-5 vs the Top 50 and 7-10 vs the Top 100. They'd have an RPI of about 53 and their SOS is projected to be around 39.

Tennessee would only have one RPI 100+ loss (Georgia), while Arkansas would have two (Vanderbilt, South Carolina).

The overall records would be 20-11 for Arkansas and 19-11 for Tennessee. Conference records would both be 11-7.

Sounds pretty even. It would be difficult to pick between those teams.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2013, 11:00:17 pm by GatorsGators »
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Dogtown Donkey

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2013, 08:05:32 am »

According to whom? Lunardi, a mediocre (at best) bracketologist? Okay.

How exactly is Lunardi mediocre (at best)?

His accuracy begs to differ.
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Dogtown Donkey

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2013, 08:09:30 am »

They do still have opportunities to get some quality SEC wins, though. They get Florida and Missouri both at home. The Wichita State win OOC will help them as well, and the win over UMass is a neutral-court win against a bubble team.

They're in a similar situation to Arkansas. If they can finish out with only one or two more losses then they could sneak in with a solid SECT showing.


Sure, they have the opportunity, but much like last season, I don't see them capitalizing. Again, they have 1 good SEC win. They beat Wichita State, which is good, but WSU's had some struggles in their conference. UMass is an okay team, but who have they beat? LaSalle? Just not impressed with UT's resume.
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GatorsGators

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Re: Will the SEC get 4 teams in the tournament?
« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2013, 03:58:20 pm »

How exactly is Lunardi mediocre (at best)?

His accuracy begs to differ.

His "accuracy" isn't all that accurate when compared to other bracketologists, both other professionals and amateurs.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/rankings.html

Quote
Sure, they have the opportunity, but much like last season, I don't see them capitalizing. Again, they have 1 good SEC win. They beat Wichita State, which is good, but WSU's had some struggles in their conference. UMass is an okay team, but who have they beat? LaSalle? Just not impressed with UT's resume.

Most bubble teams' resumes won't impress you. That's why they're bubble teams. Ole Miss has an extremely bland resume, but most consider them to be in at the moment because of the fact that they don't have bad losses. Tennessee only has one bad loss (which isn't that terrible anyways) to Georgia on top of their alright wins.
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