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Best Off-Season Move?

Started by Oklahawg, December 08, 2012, 09:41:25 pm

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Oklahawg

December 08, 2012, 09:41:25 pm
The best off-season move might be the Lindblom for Young deal between the Phillies and the Rangers.

Rangers don't need a middling bat and have leadership elsewhere. They do need additional arms. I've liked Lindblom for several years and think he can help them.

The Phillies need an upgrade at 3B and the leadership won't hurt. They have enough pitching to deal an arm that is not going to make their MLB club.

Certainly better than that twisted Blue Jays/Marlins deal.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

bsking

December 08, 2012, 11:01:00 pm #1
I'd vote for the Revere trade.  Phillies got a great young leadoff hitter and didn't hurt their team in doing so.
 

ErieHog

December 09, 2012, 09:23:59 am #2
Quote from: bsking on December 08, 2012, 11:01:00 pm
I'd vote for the Revere trade.  Phillies got a great young leadoff hitter and didn't hurt their team in doing so.

As someone who watches the Twins regularly, they seriously seriously overpaid for Revere.

They traded a guy who is already a quality 4th or 5th starter, and a guy with the potential to develop into a very good 3/adequate 2nd starter for a guy who's upside is Juan Pierre 2.0.


No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

bsking

December 09, 2012, 09:55:38 am #3
Quote from: ErieHog on December 09, 2012, 09:23:59 am
As someone who watches the Twins regularly, they seriously seriously overpaid for Revere.

They traded a guy who is already a quality 4th or 5th starter, and a guy with the potential to develop into a very good 3/adequate 2nd starter for a guy who's upside is Juan Pierre 2.0.




I think both teams are happy with the deal but I disagree about Revere.  His upside is Juan Pierre 2.0?  He's 24 and already at Juan Pierre-ish stats.  He's making sub $500k and is team controllable for 5 more years.  Right now, Revere is one of the most valuable leadoff hitters in the game.

ErieHog

December 09, 2012, 10:07:51 am #4
Quote from: bsking on December 09, 2012, 09:55:38 am
I think both teams are happy with the deal but I disagree about Revere.  His upside is Juan Pierre 2.0?  He's 24 and already at Juan Pierre-ish stats.  He's making sub $500k and is team controllable for 5 more years.  Right now, Revere is one of the most valuable leadoff hitters in the game.

He's not at Juan's peak yet, no-  he's never hit .300 in a single season at the big league level, let alone 6 times- and he's already maxing out his numbers on an unusually high BABIP, so its not like there is a ton of room for improvement on the margins.       He provides absolutely no power, and if there is any attrition at all in his speed,  his ridiculously high ground ball rate will lead to the bottom falling out of his batting average-- nobody in the league puts the ball on the ground like Revere.     


His OBP suffers because he  simply does not walk-- his wRC+ numbers are among the absolute worst in baseball-- and worse, he shows no sign of the discipline that's necessary to even begin improving his walk rates-- he doesn't even work pitchers deep into counts-- to call him overly aggressive is an understatement.

He's a very good RF,  but will not be quite as good as a CF;  there is a reason they kept Spahn there, and moved the younger, faster Revere to right, instead of the other way around.

I really like Revere, and I'm glad that my team fleeced the Phillies for him,  but the move is undoubtedly penny-wise and pound foolish for the Phils.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

bsking

December 09, 2012, 11:15:09 am #5
Admittedly I've never seen the guy play but I could list 2 dozen HOFers with worse stats when they are 24.  It's foolish to not think he'll mature and get better.  He's still 5 years from his prime.

Let's compare him to Michael Bourn, considered one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and will get somewhere near 15 mil for 3-6 years this offeseason.

162 game averages:

Bourn:
.272 AVG
.339 OBP
.704 OPS
51 SB

Revere:
.278
.319
.642
47 SB

Revere isn't quite there, but they are pretty comparable.  Bourn plays better defense, but not by a whole lot.  If you factor in progression/regression it's safe to say Revere will probably be the better player in 3 years.  Bourn will get more money next year than Revere will in the next 5.

I see Revere as a tremendous value for any team.

ErieHog

December 09, 2012, 12:18:29 pm #6
Quote from: bsking on December 09, 2012, 11:15:09 am
Admittedly I've never seen the guy play but I could list 2 dozen HOFers with worse stats when they are 24.  It's foolish to not think he'll mature and get better.  He's still 5 years from his prime.

Let's compare him to Michael Bourn, considered one of the best leadoff hitters in the game and will get somewhere near 15 mil for 3-6 years this offeseason.

162 game averages:

Bourn:
.272 AVG
.339 OBP
.704 OPS
51 SB

Revere:
.278
.319
.642
47 SB

Revere isn't quite there, but they are pretty comparable.  Bourn plays better defense, but not by a whole lot.  If you factor in progression/regression it's safe to say Revere will probably be the better player in 3 years.  Bourn will get more money next year than Revere will in the next 5.

I see Revere as a tremendous value for any team.


I've watched Revere play about 200 MLB games out of his career 250ish.   

He's a valuable player, but he's not worth the two pieces that they traded for him, not by a long shot.    If it had been an either/or,  both teams would have walked away pretty even-- but the Twins kicked the Phillies in the nuts, and made them like it by getting both.

Mid-rotation starters with years of team control are worth at a minimum of $10 million a year;  to give up two of them,  to avoid paying one player $15 mil per is not a good idea.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

bsking

December 09, 2012, 01:14:24 pm #7
I'll just put it this way, I said this in the Braves thread:

Quote from: bsking on November 28, 2012, 11:45:06 pm
Now.  Who fills in the LF/3B hole and hits leadoff?  My vote.  Trade for Ben Revere.  Twins are in full blown rebuild mode.  Give them Teheran and someone else, I think that would get it done.  He's cheap and team controlled until 2018.  He's also shown he's ready to be big time.

And I would still have been more than happy with it.  Teheran is a Cy Young ceiling guy.

ErieHog

December 09, 2012, 02:21:59 pm #8
Quote from: bsking on December 09, 2012, 01:14:24 pm
I'll just put it this way, I said this in the Braves thread:

And I would still have been more than happy with it.  Teheran is a Cy Young ceiling guy.

Both are ridiculous overpayment models for Revere.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

bsking

December 09, 2012, 02:24:02 pm #9
Quote from: ErieHog on December 09, 2012, 02:21:59 pm
Both are ridiculous overpayment models for Revere.

Maybe.  We'll see.

ucahogfan

December 09, 2012, 03:12:26 pm #10
Jason Bay signing with the Mariners.  Best off-season move EVER!

SEdrhawg

December 09, 2012, 09:27:57 pm #11
Quote from: Oklahawg on December 08, 2012, 09:41:25 pm
The best off-season move might be the Lindblom for Young deal between the Phillies and the Rangers.

Rangers don't need a middling bat and have leadership elsewhere. They do need additional arms. I've liked Lindblom for several years and think he can help them.

The Phillies need an upgrade at 3B and the leadership won't hurt. They have enough pitching to deal an arm that is not going to make their MLB club.

Certainly better than that twisted Blue Jays/Marlins deal.

Oklahawg, I totally agree with you.  As a Ranger's fan, this is a move that had to be done.  I appreciate all the years of service and leadership that Young provided, but its a business and let's face the facts.  It is insane to pay that kind of salary ($16 mill I believe) for a 34 year old .270 batting, 9 home run utility player.  Especially when you have Beltre, Andrus, and Kinsler locking down the infield.  Take the extra money and go get a #2 starter or resign Hamilton or both.

Also good from the Phillies perspective as they solidified a hole in their infield and got a decent bat (not a $16 million bat though).  Also works out for Young as he gets to play everyday again.  Win for all sides

gutshot

December 10, 2012, 08:47:15 am #12
This Rays/Royals trade might be a new contender.  Early reactions by the talking heads say this is lopsided in the Rays favor.  I guess that all depends on what Wade Davis becomes.  He's under control for several years, so if he can make it as a front end starter, the Royals aren't in too bad of shape.  If he's stuck in a rut and can't get out of the pen, then it's an overpay by Kansas City.  Shields is a horse for two years.  They can contend in the weak AL Central with him leading the way short-term.  Dayton Moore has built up a great farm system and now I guess it's time to try and cash in. 

Tampa Bay did well landing a true cornerstone bat, a mid-rotation starter, a big-armed lefty that needs some refining, and another young bat with power potential.  All of which are under team control for 6 years. They continue to balance restocking and contending at the same time.   It's a great move for them.
 

bsking

December 10, 2012, 10:07:24 am #13
I won't even comment on that trade.  But I feel it is appropriately located in this thread.

ErieHog

December 10, 2012, 11:18:27 am #14
I think it's a tough trade to evaluate-- it's not equitable, in terms of player returns,  but Kansas City so desperately needs a change in the baseball culture of losing at the big league level, that I can't really fault them for turning assets into potential wins.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

ucahogfan

December 10, 2012, 12:18:22 pm #15
I think the Rays won the trade big time.  Meyers is the #3 prospect in the minors only behind Profar and Bundy.  Odorizzi is the #30 overall prospect and is now the 2nd best prospect in the system only behind Meyers.  Montgomery is the 10th best LHP prospect in the minors.  Leonard comes in at #20 in the Rays system.  They received a potential future star to pair with Longo, 2 excellent pitching prospects, and a mid tier player who could develop.

Meanwhile, the Royals received an innings-eater #2 type starter in Shields and a back-end starter in Davis.  The Royals GM should be fired for giving up 3 top prospects like they did.

bsking

December 10, 2012, 12:20:29 pm #16
Maybe the best prospect in baseball (your #1) and a top 30 prospect (your #3, #1 pitching) for 2 years of a 3.89 ERA pitcher and 3 years of a 4.00 ERA pitcher.

ucahogfan

December 10, 2012, 12:24:28 pm #17
Quote from: bsking on December 10, 2012, 12:20:29 pm
Maybe the best prospect in baseball (your #1) and a top 30 prospect (your #3, #1 pitching) for 2 years of a 3.89 ERA pitcher and 3 years of a 4.00 ERA pitcher.
It looks like the Royals moved into a win now type mode even though they have a young team where a ton of the players are team-controlled for several more years.  Heck, Meyers and Odorizzi both might be ready to break into the big leagues in 2013 and stay there for a long time.  They have drafted well and developed their talent well, but this trade is just stupid.

dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya

December 10, 2012, 09:31:48 pm #18 Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 10:43:47 am by notshavintiljlsgo
Quote from: Oklahawg on December 08, 2012, 09:41:25 pm
The best off-season move might be the Lindblom for Young deal between the Phillies and the Rangers.

Rangers don't need a middling bat and have leadership elsewhere. They do need additional arms. I've liked Lindblom for several years and think he can help them.

The Phillies need an upgrade at 3B and the leadership won't hurt. They have enough pitching to deal an arm that is not going to make their MLB club.

Certainly better than that twisted Blue Jays/Marlins deal.

Okla, I think this is an interesting take which I have not heard even here in DFW, and probably will be talked about more in the Spring.

Unfortunately, this news was buried under the Cowboys' Josh Brent story which broke on the same day.

published songwriter(ASCAP)/audio production/radio jingles/producer<br /><br />Audio Production/Music

R.I.P. notshavintilnuttgo 12/11/07

ucahogfan

December 12, 2012, 12:25:00 am #19
What do y'all think of the 3 team trade between the Reds, Indians, and DBacks?  I think the DBacks got the short end of the stick in this trade.  The Indians did an excellent job by getting Bauer.  The Reds got their leadoff man in Choo, but can either he or Bruce play CF?

bsking

December 12, 2012, 12:49:30 am #20
Can't believe Arizona gave up Bauer.

gutshot

December 12, 2012, 10:09:52 am #21
Neither can I.  Choo is solid, and I wanted to Braves to land him in left field, but not at that kind of price.  Trevor Bauer for one year of Choo and some filler is a heck of a move for Antonetti.   

bsking

December 12, 2012, 10:40:51 am #22
Reds may have emerged as the winner of this thread.  They traded a 1 year rental for one of the best prospects in baseball.

ucahogfan

December 13, 2012, 05:31:23 pm #23
Thoughts on Hamilton to the Angels?  Deal said to be 5/125.

If he stays healthy, this could be an excellent signing.  This gives them a 3/4 combo of Pujols and Hamilton.  Only the Tigers have that kind of pop.  Plus, you still have Trout leading off and Mark Trumbo who is a 30+ HR type player.
 

bsking

December 13, 2012, 06:24:43 pm #24
That lineup 1-5 is sick.

Arguably 3 of the best 5 players in baseball in as many lineup spots.

dj shanon "Notshavin" smeya

December 16, 2012, 01:34:43 pm #25
The Rangers are going to suck if they don't get it together soon.
published songwriter(ASCAP)/audio production/radio jingles/producer<br /><br />Audio Production/Music

R.I.P. notshavintilnuttgo 12/11/07

ucahogfan

December 16, 2012, 05:15:31 pm #26
Thoughts on RA Dickey possibly taking his Cy Young talents north of the border?  I think that gives them 5 solid starting pitchers and might even make them the favorite to win the AL East in 2013.  They are having to give up their top 2 prospects to get him so it is a very steep price to pay.

ErieHog

December 16, 2012, 05:36:49 pm #27
Quote from: ucahogfan on December 16, 2012, 05:15:31 pm
Thoughts on RA Dickey possibly taking his Cy Young talents north of the border?  I think that gives them 5 solid starting pitchers and might even make them the favorite to win the AL East in 2013.  They are having to give up their top 2 prospects to get him so it is a very steep price to pay.

Between that deal, and the Marlins fire sale deal, the Blue Jays should at least contend this year.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

gutshot

December 17, 2012, 07:57:37 am #28
On the other side of that deal, Alderson is possibly picking up two new prospects that will slot somewhere in the Mets top 5, in D'Arnaud and Syndergaard, for one year of Dickey...and that goes right along with acquiring Zack Wheeler for a couple of months of Beltran.  They've got an outstanding group of young talent in the system and they're about to become relevant again.  That's probably not a good thing for us Braves fans.

bsking

December 17, 2012, 09:23:35 am #29
That deal is stupid for the Blue Jays.

Oklahawg

January 01, 2013, 12:30:46 am #30
Gosh, I needed to return to this earlier!

1. Rays/Royals deal. Royals will not care if they can get to Sept 15 and still have a legit shot at the playoffs. Prospects are always iffy. Royals are getting commodities that are (at least somewhat) proven. Maybe its the rotisserie player in me, but its tough to hang onto prospects when you have a shot at getting impact players. The Royals desperately need innings-eaters.

2. The Indians/Reds/DBacks deal. Odd that we had two elite prospects dealt this last month. I love Bauer, but am a Tyler Skaggs man. Somehow, Skaggs slotted ahead of Bauer. Choo is a great talent - be nice to see him on a playoff contender.  Stubbs may flame out early.

3. Hamilton to the Angels is laughable. I do NOT believe that simply buying the best FA on the market equates with making the team better. Torii Hunter is a leader in the clubhouse and no sport demands chemistry like MLB (the 162-game schedule takes a huge toll).

I "suffered" through Hamilton's early career troubles having stubbornly sat with him on my rotisserie reserve list, ignoring great trade offers for him (see #1 above). I don't think he's a clutch guy in the sense that he doesn't understand that his value to the team is being a 90-percent guy for 100-percent of the season. He instead has that Jim Edmonds admirable, but tragic, inclination to be a 105-percent guy for 80-percent of the season.

4. RA Dickey will be mediocre for Toronto. An odd pick-up - couldn't the Jays have snagged Edwin Jackson and saved the prospects? They didn't need a #1 (have several fine options for that!), they needed an innings-eater.

More interesting might be to ask what deal SHOULD be made.

One other thought: If I were a pitcher I'd beg to pitch in Seattle or San Diego, where flyballs go to die. If I were a hitter I'd have Colorado and Texas on speed dial.
I am a Hog fan. I was long before my name was etched, twice, on the sidewalks on the Hill. I will be long after Sam Pittman and Eric Mussleman are coaches, and Hunter Yuracheck is AD. I am a Hog fan when we win, when we lose and when we don't play. I love hearing the UA band play the National Anthem on game day, but I sing along to the Alma Mater. I am a Hog fan.<br /><br />A liberal education is at the heart of a civil society, and at the heart of a liberal education is the act of teaching. - Bart Giamatti <br /><br />"It is a puzzling thing. The truth knocks on the door and you say, 'Go away, I'm looking for the truth,' and so it goes away. Puzzling." ― Robert M. Pirsig<br /><br />Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.  – Yogi Berra

ErieHog

January 01, 2013, 01:08:26 am #31
Quote from: Oklahawg on January 01, 2013, 12:30:46 am

4. RA Dickey will be mediocre for Toronto. An odd pick-up - couldn't the Jays have snagged Edwin Jackson and saved the prospects? They didn't need a #1 (have several fine options for that!), they needed an innings-eater.


Knuckleballers are just that though-- durability guys, who you don't have to worry about blowing out an arm.    I see Dickey as a decent #3, but nothing more-- but he fills the innings eating just fine.
No cause, ever, in the history of all mankind, has produced more cold-blooded tyrants, more slaughtered innocents, and more orphans than socialism with power. It surpassed, exponentially, all other systems of production in turning out the dead. The bodies are all around us. And here is the problem: No one talks about them. No one honors them. No one does penance for them. No one has committed suicide for having been an apologist for those who did this to them. No one pays for them. No one is hunted down to account for them. It is exactly what Solzhenitsyn foresaw in The Gulag Archipelago: "No, no one would have to answer. No one would be looked into." Until that happens, there is no "after socialism."

bsking

January 01, 2013, 12:53:45 pm #32
Quote from: Oklahawg on January 01, 2013, 12:30:46 am
Gosh, I needed to return to this earlier!

1. Rays/Royals deal. Royals will not care if they can get to Sept 15 and still have a legit shot at the playoffs. Prospects are always iffy. Royals are getting commodities that are (at least somewhat) proven. Maybe its the rotisserie player in me, but its tough to hang onto prospects when you have a shot at getting impact players. The Royals desperately need innings-eaters.

If you want an innings eater go sign Javier Vasquez for a 500k deal.  Don't trade away your future.

Myers should have been as untouchable as Mike Trout.  He rocked AA and AAA harder than Trout or Profar and they're untouchable.
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