Comparing the top 2 MLB Closers: Craig Kimbrel and Alrodis Chapman

[ucahogfan]

I thought it would be interesting to see how the 2 most dominant closers in baseball right now compare.  Both are 24 years old and pitch on teams that should be in the playoffs.  Chapman is getting a lot of hype as a potential Cy Young canidate while Kimbrel is getting none.  I am a Braves fan so I'm a little biased, but I think Kimbrel should be talked about as much as Chapman.  Both are power pitchers.  Kimbrel is a short righty while Chapman is a tall lefty.

First, we will take a look at both of their entire season stats:

Kimbrel - 0-1, 35-38 S, 1.20 ERA, .67 WHIP, 52.1 IP, 21 H, 3 HR, 7 ER, 14 BB, 96 K
Chapman - 5-5, 35-40 S, 1.61 ERA, .76 WHIP, 67.0 IP, 34 H, 4 HR, 12 ER, 17 BB, 118 K

It would appear Kimbrel would have the better stats, but Chapman does lead in wins and strikeouts.

Now, we will look at just random stuff:

-  Kimbrel strikes out 61.1% of all batters that come to the plate while Chapman strikes out 58.7% of all batters that come to the plate.  Both are just unfair numbers, but Kimbrel holds the edge.

-  In 52 appearances this season, Kimbrel has recorded at least one strikeout in 47 of them.  He has recorded at least one strikeout in his last 15 appearances.  The last time he didn't record a strikeout in an appearance was against the Giants on July 18 in a non-save situation.  The last time he didn't record a strikeout when he got the save was on May 18 against the Rays.  He has recorded multiple strikeouts in his last 13 appearances.

-  In 63 appearances this season, Chapman has recored at least one strikeout in 59 of them.  3 of the times he has failed to record a strikeout came in a 10 day span in August.

-  Kimbrel walked 10 batters in April and May, and has only 3 since the start of June.  Chapman walked 8 batters in April and May, and has walked 9 since.  Kimbrel holds the edge there.

-  Kimbrel has only given up more than 4 hits in one month this year when he gave up 7 in April.  Chapman only has one month of less than 4 hits when he gave up 2 in the month of May.  With the innings difference, it would hard to judge the winner in this case.

-  Chapman didn't allow an earned run in the months of April, May, and July.  He gave up 8 earned runs in June.  Kimbrel allowed 2 earned runs each in April and May, but only 1 each in June, July, and August.  I'm going to give Kimbrel the edge here since Chapman had more earned runs in one month than Kimbrel has allowed all season.

I will close to say that Kimbrel has clearly been the better closer this season and should be the NL Reliever of the Year, but will fall to Chapman because of the media hype around him.  I have no idea of who will be the NL Cy Young, but I think Kimbrel should be right in the middle of the discussion.

I know people will call me crazy, but Kimbrel will go down as the best closer in MLB history if he continues the path he is on.  I will post where I got the majority of my stats and would really enjoy to hear your feedback.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/30653/craig-kimbrel

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/30442/aroldis-chapman

[bsking]

Good stuff.  Kimbrel is easily the better of the 2 at this point.

As for whether he'll be the best of all time.  Yeah, he will if he stays on this pace.  But it's hard to take 1/6 of a career and project it over 2 decades.

[ucahogfan]

As for whether he'll be the best of all time.  Yeah, he will if he stays on this pace.  But it's hard to take 1/6 of a career and project it over 2 decades.

I completely agree.  Just saying that if he averages 40 saves and a sub 2.00 ERA every season until he is 40, he will have about 700 career saves and an ERA below 2.00.  I think he will definitely go down in the top 5 for sure.