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Author Topic: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order  (Read 2391 times)

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silvertip

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I've been noticing all season how much better Dontell is this year than last. I think he has a good shot at 2nd team All-SEC, maybe even first team, depending on how the season works out.

It's been the popular thing lately to bash on Jefferson, with as usual, the 2nd string PG (QB) being the most popular guy on campus. Since I "see" what happens in a game differently (better) than what many "see", I decided to check the Facts ma'am, to see what's right.

I rank from 1st-13th the SEC PGs. Two for Ole Miss since I don't know how to distringuish Bam Doyne from Todd Abernethy as far as who is their PG. I rank them by these stats--points/shot, assists, assist/TO ratio, steals, RBs. Points/shot I consider a more accurate way of evaluating scoring, since in one stat in combines FGs, FTs, and 3pt shots. Assists, steals, and RBs I put on a minutes/per basis, as this removes inaccuracies in the typical "per game average" which fails to account for minutes played. I call the minutes/per stat "rate" in the chart below.

Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.
For those who just can't live with that fact, go back now lest yee have a heart attack.

Let's get down to it. Jefferson ranks, e.g. 1st in minutes/assist, and 2nd in assist/TO ratio. If that were all the stats considered, his "total score" would be 3. The lower the score the better. For brevity, I will list just the top 5 PGs. Then I will throw in Ferguson & McCurdy for grins & giggles. This won't be "fair" to Eric as he is not a full-time PG. I doubt the accuracy of McCurdy's #s due to his 141 minutes PT compared to 500-600 mins for most of the others. Here 'tis:

Player--------------------Pts------Assist---A/TO---Steal---RBing----Total
---------------------------/Shot-----Rate----Ratio----Rate---Rate-----Score

1) Jefferson, ARK-----T-6th----1st------2nd-----3rd------6th------18.5
2) Watson,TENN------1st--------5th-----3rd------1st------9th------19.0
3) Rondo, KY-----------T-4th----4th------5th-----5th------1st------19.5
4) Green, FLA-----------2nd------2nd-----6th------6th-----10th-----26.0
5) Gaines, UGA---------T-6th----7th------8th-----2nd------4th-----27.5

10) McCurdy, ARK------14th-----3rd------4th-----14th----6th--------41.0
13) Abernethy, MISS--10th-----12th----12th----13th---T-12th----59.5
14) Ferguson, ARK------13th----13th-----13th----8th----13th-------60.0

So, there you have it. As you can see, DJ, Watson, & Rondo are the cream of the crop.

It's not fair to Ferguson, as he's not asked to be a PG primarily. But you can see that he needs to shoot less/assist more (same issue), and cut down on TOS.

As for McCurdy, 10th is not bad for a freshman. This analysis confirms what most have "seen" in that he is good at RBing, assists, and asst/TO ratio. The fact that this analysis confirms what most of us "see" about Eric, Sean, and others points to
the validity of this method.

As far as I'm concerned, the fact that so many can't "see" the great job Jefferson is doing is because you DON"T WANT TO. What some WANT to do is criticize Dontell as part of their "bash Heath" obssession. Some fools even assert that Dontell has not improved any over last season, and I say to them---better have someone help you cross the street before you get killed. Some people DON"T WANT TO acknowledge that Sean is not ready for full-time SEC action. I think he will be a better PG in the future---near the top in one or two years. But I say you're fooling yourself if you think he's our best PG now.

There are at least 2 other factors that weigh in Jefferson's favor. He is also the top shot-blocker among PGs---remember Kansas? I originally had blocked shots in the rankings, but there are so few blocks for most of these guys that it was skewing the scores. If I included blocks, DJ's score would be 19.5 & Watson's 31.5. Too big a weight for just a few blocks over 18 games. ALSO, Jefferson is a very good defender. But how do you quantify that? Steals & RBing are part of D, but how about holding your opponent to a low score & causing TOs other than steals. No doubt DJ could hold his own if "total D" & blocks were added in.

CONCLUSION: I think a lot of you need to find something else to whine about. Point guard is NOT our problem. I suggest you look at our other seniors if you just HAVE to have something to feed your habit. I'm not a fan of bashing players myself. But sometimes you can get sucked into it arguing with those who do.
 
« Last Edit: January 25, 2006, 06:59:47 pm by silvertip »
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sooie dog

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2006, 11:15:12 am »





Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.


Stats are for losers.   That and the fact that he is not a leader.  That's something you look for in a good point guard.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2006, 11:18:12 am »

I've been noticing all season how much better Dontell is this year than last. I think he has a good shot at 2nd team All-SEC, maybe even first team, depending on how the season works out.

It's been the popular thing lately to bash on Jefferson, with as usual, the 2nd string PG (QB) being the most popular guy on campus. Since I "see" what happens in a game differently (better) than what many "see", I decided to check the Facts ma'am, to see what's right.

I rank from 1st-13th the SEC PGs. Two for Ole Miss since I don't know how to distringuish Bam Doyne from Todd Abernethy as far as who is their PG. I rank them by these stats--points/shot, assists, assist/TO ratio, steals, RBs. Points/shot I consider a more accurate way of evaluating scoring, since in one stat in combines FGs, FTs, and 3pt shots. Assists, steals, and RBs I put on a minutes/per basis, as this removes inaccuracies in the typical "per game average" which fails to account for minutes played. I call the minutes/per stat "rate" in the chart below.

Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.
For those who just can't live with that fact, go back now lest yee have a heart attack.

CONCLUSION: I think a lot of you need to find something else to whine about. Point guard is NOT our problem. I suggest you look at our other seniors if you just HAVE to have something to feed your habit. I'm not a fan of bashing players myself. But sometimes you can get sucked into it arguing with those who do.
 

Your stats are interesting but when I watch Dontell play, I "see" a passive, almost scared basketball player who never scores and is not much more than a warm body when he's on the floor.  He has no interest in creating an opportunity for us to score.  The only thing he does is try not to single handedly cost the Razorbacks the game, and sometimes he doesn't even get that right.  When he fouled that guy in Alabama, (and yes it was a foul), I thought to myself "That is the most egregious, idiotic error by an Arkansas Razorback I have EVER seen."

Give me someone with McCurdy's heart and desire over Jefferson's "warm body" any day.  :razorback:
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RealSmartGuy

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2006, 11:20:13 am »

Here is a stat for ya, Dontell sucks, remember Alabama!!!!!!
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2006, 11:21:45 am »

Sorry to bust your bubble but if you attend the games you will notice one thing...STATS LIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No way in the world that Jefferson is one of the top point guards in the SEC.  The assists he gets are sloppy, easily made, and mostly on wide open passes.  I can't remember Jefferson making even one difficult assist this year.  McCurdy (although he makes his own mistakes as a freshman) is a better point guard right now.  Think about this...Jefferson is a SENIOR.  McCurdy is a FRESHMAN.  Any casual fan can see a difference in these 2 players...McCurdy is a natural.  My wife can even notice the blatant difference in the two.  Why McCurdy doesn't get playing time is crazy to me.  If Stan had gone with McCurdy at the beginning of the year, he would be acclimated by now and would be 2 times better than Jefferson at this point. 

Take if from me, and Jimmy Dikes, McCurdy should be playing, not Jefferson. 
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2006, 11:22:07 am »

Jefferson is better (or more valuable) than Watson or Rondo?

You really have lost your mind, haven't you.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2006, 11:27:36 am »

Everyone needs to smite this post from silvertip, Jefferson, that is funny.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2006, 11:28:21 am »

Points per shot?
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2006, 11:32:12 am »





Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.


Stats are for losers. That and the fact that he is not a leader. That's something you look for in a good point guard.

Funny, but DJ's bashers will throw around stats in a careless, slipshod manner. Until confronted with The Truth---which could set them (you) FREE!! You can lead a Hog to water....

You want leadership? Would you know it when you see it?
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2006, 11:33:17 am »

the math of your methodology is statistically incoherent. 
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HouTxRzbck

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2006, 11:33:49 am »

Here is a stat for ya, Dontell sucks, remember Alabama!!!!!!

Easy Killer!!!!
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2006, 11:37:31 am »

Interesting stats, but they do seem to be slanted by a pre-conceived conclusion. You don't seem totally objective. For instance, why do you want to measure pts/shot rather than pts/game? That would change his status quite a bit. Good grief. Dontell went two games without taking a shot! And how about adding FT% as a stat?

I think Jefferson is pretty solid. His Assists to turnover ratio does not lie. But I think people long for a playmaker and a "take-charge" leader at point guard - and they see that potential in McCurdy. They also want the point guard to be an 80% free throw shooter, and they want him to have excellent ball-handling skills. Jefferson is none of those things. He is shooting 66% from the free throw line. And I wonder how many alley-oop passes he has thrown this season. We need more exciting plays, and a playmaker brings that leadership, energy, and excitement that we are lacking.

Jefferson seems like a great kid. And he's doing a pretty good job. He is not our problem, but the truth is - he is not the solution either.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2006, 11:40:09 am »

Your joking, right?
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2006, 11:45:45 am »





Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.


Stats are for losers. That and the fact that he is not a leader. That's something you look for in a good point guard.

Funny, but DJ's bashers will throw around stats in a careless, slipshod manner. Until confronted with The Truth---which could set them (you) FREE!! You can lead a Hog to water....

You want leadership? Would you know it when you see it?

Do you know a good PG when you see it?  No one cares about his stats.  It doesn't take a genius to see how worthless he is when he's on the court!

The bottom line is he sucks; he contributes nothing to the team.  Every time he goes into the game I cringe.  Why Heath gives him so many minutes is beyond me.   :razorback:
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2006, 11:47:47 am »

I've been noticing all season how much better Dontell is this year than last. I think he has a good shot at 2nd team All-SEC, maybe even first team, depending on how the season works out.

It's been the popular thing lately to bash on Jefferson, with as usual, the 2nd string PG (QB) being the most popular guy on campus. Since I "see" what happens in a game differently (better) than what many "see", I decided to check the Facts ma'am, to see what's right.

I rank from 1st-13th the SEC PGs. Two for Ole Miss since I don't know how to distringuish Bam Doyne from Todd Abernethy as far as who is their PG. I rank them by these stats--points/shot, assists, assist/TO ratio, steals, RBs. Points/shot I consider a more accurate way of evaluating scoring, since in one stat in combines FGs, FTs, and 3pt shots. Assists, steals, and RBs I put on a minutes/per basis, as this removes inaccuracies in the typical "per game average" which fails to account for minutes played. I call the minutes/per stat "rate" in the chart below.

Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.
For those who just can't live with that fact, go back now lest yee have a heart attack.

CONCLUSION: I think a lot of you need to find something else to whine about. Point guard is NOT our problem. I suggest you look at our other seniors if you just HAVE to have something to feed your habit. I'm not a fan of bashing players myself. But sometimes you can get sucked into it arguing with those who do.
 

Your stats are interesting but when I watch Dontell play, I "see" a passive, almost scared basketball player who never scores and is not much more than a warm body when he's on the floor.  He has no interest in creating an opportunity for us to score.  The only thing he does is try not to single handedly cost the Razorbacks the game, and sometimes he doesn't even get that right.  When he fouled that guy in Alabama, (and yes it was a foul), I thought to myself "That is the most egregious, idiotic error by an Arkansas Razorback I have EVER seen."

Give me someone with McCurdy's heart and desire over Jefferson's "warm body" any day.  :razorback:

Maybe you need to learn to "see" better. So I'll give you some pointers:

1) When watching the game, esp on TV, try to focus near the FT line, rather than just watching the ball. With a little effort, you can train yourself to really see a lot more of what is really going on. Takes some practice.

2) Then go home & look at the box score for a good long while. Check to see if what really happened fits your "seeing." In this way, with some EFFORT, over time you will learn to see what is really happening live.

3) Tape every Hog game you can, then take the lessons learned from step 1 & 2 & review the game to improve your "seeing."

YOU CAN DO THIS if you can post here. Years of using this system accounts for why I can really SEE what is actually going on.  I had already seen this year that DJ had raised his game to All-SEC level. When I checked the FACTS, ma'am---I was a bit surprised he came in at #1. I was expecting top-3. But then, I haven't yet "seen" how overrated some of the other SEC PGs are. Good luck.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2006, 11:48:34 am »

How the heck could #4 make any All-SEC team when he'll be averaging fewer points than Steven Hill once the season is over? I think Hill has outscored Jefferson in probably 5 straight games. It doesn't matter how many assists he gets if he a) turns the ball over constantly b) makes stupid decisions on defense that cost us games and c) can't shoot FTs even though he's a freakin' guard.
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2006, 11:55:44 am »

Here is a stat for ya, Dontell sucks, remember Alabama!!!!!!

That's one game & yes, he blew it. Remember Kansas? Or do you just like to remember the bad things about everybody? Do you even know what I mean by "remember Kansas"?

DJ made the diff in winning the game in clutch time vs Kansas. I've read that he won a game last season with clutch FTs at the end. Tell me about any other Hawg player that has risen up at clutch time during the 10 close games we could have won the past 2 years. I don't remember any. What I do remember is a lot of players hiding when it's time to step up. Can't blame them if they don't do anything, right?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2006, 12:07:45 pm by silvertip »
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #17 on: January 25, 2006, 12:02:02 pm »





Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.


Stats are for losers. That and the fact that he is not a leader. That's something you look for in a good point guard.

Funny, but DJ's bashers will throw around stats in a careless, slipshod manner. Until confronted with The Truth---which could set them (you) FREE!! You can lead a Hog to water....

You want leadership? Would you know it when you see it?

Do you know a good PG when you see it? No one cares about his stats. It doesn't take a genius to see how worthless he is when he's on the court!

The bottom line is he sucks; he contributes nothing to the team.  Every time he goes into the game I cringe.  Why Heath gives him so many minutes is beyond me. :razorback:

I feel sorry for you about that "cringing" problem. Does it hurt?
I'll help you out young man, but you will have to actually do it for yourself. Read my "reply #14" in this thread. Once you learn to see what's happening, the cringing problem should go away. Until that happens, I hear they're doing wonderful things with drugs nowadays. Good luck, young man.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2006, 12:03:53 pm »

First off let me state that I thought Jefferson was HORRIBLE last year. He has improved by not turning it over everytime he touches it and I do believe he should be getting the bulk of minutes this year mainly because he does do a good job of taking care of the basketball.

With that said, your stats don't take into account the intangebles. He is the PG and he doesn't make the offense flow. He doesn't penetrate against zones, he doesn't move well without the ball (which is probably why you like him so much silver. if you are watching the free throw line then you most likely get to stare at #4 all game. he doesn't move away from the top of the key), he picks up his dribble a lot and he doesn't direct his teammates around to get them into the correct sets.

I still believe the assists statistic is over rated with him. How many of his 6 assist average are him standing at the top of the key hitting brewer on a curl or modica in transition? That is something hill could do 6 times a game but he sure isn't a point guard. Asst. to turnover is a good statistic for jefferson because he doesn't turn it over much. Which is great and is the reason why i believe he should still be getting the most PT.

The main reason I don't think he is a top SEC pg is because he doesn't provide energy to the offense. But I also know that he is basically our only option right now for a full time PG. McCurdy is great because he can come off the bench and provide the energy that Jefferson is lacking. But McCurdy will also make the freshman mistakes that will kill this team in crunch time.

My conclusion is McCurdy should get a few more minutes because we could use him when this team goes into its usual scoring drought. Other than those times Jefferson is sufficient. But to say he is the top or even one of the top PGs in the league is not waying all of the factors.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2006, 12:10:10 pm »





Bottom line, Dontell ranks #1 among SEC PGs when you rank them by these stats.


Stats are for losers. That and the fact that he is not a leader. That's something you look for in a good point guard.

Funny, but DJ's bashers will throw around stats in a careless, slipshod manner. Until confronted with The Truth---which could set them (you) FREE!! You can lead a Hog to water....

You want leadership? Would you know it when you see it?

Do you know a good PG when you see it? No one cares about his stats. It doesn't take a genius to see how worthless he is when he's on the court!

The bottom line is he sucks; he contributes nothing to the team. Every time he goes into the game I cringe. Why Heath gives him so many minutes is beyond me. :razorback:

I feel sorry for you about that "cringing" problem. Does it hurt?
I'll help you out young man, but you will have to actually do it for yourself. Read my "reply #14" in this thread. Once you learn to see what's happening, the cringing problem should go away. Until that happens, I hear they're doing wonderful things with drugs nowadays. Good luck, young man.

I wondered what your problem was.  Maybe you should lay off the drugs.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2006, 12:12:52 pm »

The stats you are posting include non-conference games which means DJ is doing exactly what he did last year.  He padded his stats in NC and then sucked in SEC play.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2006, 12:14:41 pm »

Silvertip, you have not responded to my post. Would you be willing to add in FT% and change pts/shot to pts/game? I'd be interested to see the results.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2006, 12:17:17 pm »

Statistics never lie....and all liars use statistics
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Niels Boar

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2006, 12:33:58 pm »

If you look at the team stats in conference, ballhandling isn't what sticks out.  The 30% from the arc does, and our rebounding numbers are still low.  We need a pure shooter worse than we need a point.  Due to a need we could really use a shooter at that position, even if ballhandling is adequate.

On the other hand, even though our TO/pos numbers are low, so are our A/pos.  I don't see anybody out there creating shots for their teammates.  My impression is that Jefferson is getting his assists in transition and feeding the post.  He doesn't score, and he doesn't penetrate.  Our FG percentages are at the bottom of the conference.  Part of that is certainly shooting, but not all of it.  We actually have a post game, unlike some SEC teams.  NBA scouts won't even compare Jefferson with Taurean Green, Steele, Watson, or Rondo.  No contest.  Heath would trade him for any of those guys in a heartbeat.   

Only 4 SEC teams are forcing TOs in conference:  UT, UF, UGA, and Ole Miss.  Tonight is the first time we face a pressure defense.  The real tests will be UF and UT.  I'm interested to see how our ballhandling holds up.  We start to find out tonight.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2006, 12:35:36 pm »

If you look at the team stats in conference, ballhandling isn't what sticks out. The 30% from the arc does, and our rebounding numbers are still low. We need a pure shooter worse than we need a point. Due to a need we could really use a shooter at that position, even if ballhandling is adequate.

On the other hand, even though our TO/pos numbers are low, so are our A/pos. I don't see anybody out there creating shots for their teammates. My impression is that Jefferson is getting his assists in transition and feeding the post. He doesn't score, and he doesn't penetrate. Our FG percentages are at the bottom of the conference. Part of that is certainly shooting, but not all of it. We actually have a post game, unlike some SEC teams. NBA scouts won't even compare Jefferson with Taurean Green, Steele, Watson, or Rondo. No contest. Heath would trade him for any of those guys in a heartbeat.

Only 4 SEC teams are forcing TOs in conference: UT, UF, UGA, and Ole Miss. Tonight is the first time we face a pressure defense. The real tests will be UF and UT. I'm interested to see how our ballhandling holds up. We start to find out tonight.

Right on the money Niels.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2006, 12:37:42 pm »

Statistics never lie....and all liars use statistics

Statistics may not lie because they're factual historical record.  But, they can deceive you, as I think the case is with slivertip.  He talks about how you're supposed to watch a game and tells me I don't watch the game right.  Whatever.  I played it, I've taught/coached children how to play it and I've seen enough of it to feel comfortable with ability to determine if someone's good or not.  And I'm not trying to make myself out to be a basketball genius, but I'm no dummy, either.

When I watch Dontell, I don't see him do anything I want to see an Arkansas Razorback do.  He doesn't attack the basket.  He picks up his dribble WAY to early.  When he passes, he makes the easy pass to the guy to his immediate right or left..he never looks for the guys inside.  He doesn't skip pass to the other side of the court when there are people open for threes.  He doesn't create.  He seems content with his mediocre play.   :razorback:
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2006, 12:58:39 pm »

Points per shot?

Total points for the year divided by total shots attempted. It's what I think of as a "combo" stat like a FB QB's pass efficiency rating.

Points/shot accounts for FG%, FT%, and 3-pt% in one number. It also solves the problem, when comparing players, of # minutes played per game. It's about "scoring efficiency"---not the "average points/game" which is mis-leading when comparing a 20-min player to a 35-min player.

Take Brewer for example. He averages .423 on total FG%, .718 on FT%, and .340 in 3-pt%. Modica goes .479 in FG, .342 in 3-pt shots, and .672 in FTs. You can look at those figures all day & not figure out who is the better scorer/shooter. Modica "appears" to shoot a better total FG%. But then you realize that a ton of Ronnie's shots are while slashing to the lane, getting hammered, and getting a lot more FTs. In order to make sense of these stats, you would at least have to know HOW MANY FTs & 3-pt shots each attempts.

Using the points/shot stat:
Brewer 335/265= 1.26
Modica 248/190=  1.30

Just surprised myself with that. I'll have to take back a bit of the things I've been thinking about Modica. But there's no real diff there, and you might wonder how can Brewer hang with Modica in this stat when the FG% & 3pt%  clearly favor Pookie?

The answer is that Ronnie has taken 110 FTs vs Pookie's 58. Thus, I would consider Ronnie's O production much better than Pookie's since I would take an old-fashion 3 over a 3pt bomb anyday.

The points/shot stat factors in the balance of a player's shot selection & FT shooting. It totally ignores minutes/game & average points/game. It is effective for comparing players EXCEPT when their is a wide difference in playing time. I would NOT use it to compare Brewer (34 min/game) to McCurdy (8.3 min/game).  McCurdy's stats could swing wildly with just a few shots made or missed. 
     
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HogJoeHelm

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2006, 01:01:57 pm »

The reason I like McCurdy (other than his ability to actually shoot a 3, something no one else other than RB of late can do) is his intensity.  He runs the ball down the court.  And everyone knows we are a much better team in transition and with an uptempo game.  DJ seems to just lazily bring the ball back.  I like DJ, but I think McCurdy is the future, and Heath should trust him more on the court.

But what do I know...
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2006, 01:03:28 pm »

Silvertip= Rick Shafer on crack....way too much sunshine.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2006, 01:09:34 pm »

Problem with Jefferson on that is he doesn't shoot.  It's hard to run a motion offense with one guy on the floor who won't take a jumper, or shouldn't maybe.  He limits/is being limited to shots that are crips, save for the few treys he tries and usually bricks.  Jefferson might be adequate if he'd make free throws in the clutch, but that ain't happening.  And his rebounding isn't there either.  I'd prefer Daniel Gibson, but I'm greedy.
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #30 on: January 25, 2006, 01:19:29 pm »

Statistics never lie....and all liars use statistics

When I watch Dontell, I don't see him do anything I want to see an Arkansas Razorback do.  He doesn't attack the basket.  He picks up his dribble WAY to early.  When he passes, he makes the easy pass to the guy to his immediate right or left..he never looks for the guys inside.  He doesn't skip pass to the other side of the court when there are people open for threes.  He doesn't create.  He seems content with his mediocre play. :razorback:

Well, I don't care about your BB "experience." Aside from picking it up way too early, I disagree with most of your other assertions. Do you think a Razorback should play tough D, rebound , steal the ball, & block shots? In RBs, steals,& blocks-- DJ is 6th, 3rd, and 1st among SEC PGs. In playing tough D he is also above average. I can SEE that just watching the games & then I look at stats to check my impressions. The FACTS confirm what I'm seeing & blow your "impressions" out of the water.

As far as 'Not creating" or "making easy passes"---I don't care whether it's not an ESPN high-light play. FACT is, DJ is FIRST in the SEC in total assists & assist rate. He is SECOND in the SEC in assist/TO ratio. Some fool in another post said DJ turns it over too much. It would show up in assist/TO ratio if that was the case. It is not. Anyone wanting to whine about TOs check out Pookies & Eric's numbers. Pitiful. And I didn't need stats to SEE that.

Enuff of this. If you think you "see" the game better than me, your BB experience was wasted.
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SultanofSwine

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #31 on: January 25, 2006, 01:29:58 pm »

The #1 greatest attribute of a great PG is floor leadership not a stat in some book and DJ unfortunately is not a strong floor leader.
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hogfankb

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #32 on: January 25, 2006, 01:30:04 pm »

Please don't compare Jefferson with Modica or Ferguson. Both  are shoot first guys so assists will be lower not to mention they are not PGs. They also try and do something with the ball which will obviously lead to more turnovers. If jefferson ever got close enough to the lane for someone to attempt a steal he would turn it over more as well. Do i think he should shoot much more? No. Am I glad he doesn't turn the ball over much? Yes.

To compare these 3 players isn't fair to any of them. They all play their own roles.
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #33 on: January 25, 2006, 01:33:00 pm »

Problem with Jefferson on that is he doesn't shoot. It's hard to run a motion offense with one guy on the floor who won't take a jumper, or shouldn't maybe. He limits/is being limited to shots that are crips, save for the few treys he tries and usually bricks. Jefferson might be adequate if he'd make free throws in the clutch, but that ain't happening. And his rebounding isn't there either. I'd prefer Daniel Gibson, but I'm greedy.

Wouldn't we all prefer Gibson? MAYBE the reason DJ has quit shooting is because the other guards shoot too much and not too well.

We're trying to build a team that plays inside-out & uses the big men. We need more O from the big men & fewer cheap & lazy shots from Eric & Pookie. Look at those two's assist #s & # of FT attempts. It's pitiful. So, the question is, WHO is going to feed the post? If Jefferson takes as many shots as those 2, we are roadkill.

Hey, Biggus, you are skilled with stats. I wish you or someone would look at what % of our FG attempts are 3pt shots in (1) the games we won & (2) the games we lost. My IMPRESSION is that we jack up a higher % of 3s in the losing games. Maybe not. If my IMPRESSION is proven wrong, then I'm not going to deny the FACTS like a lot of these expert "see-ers" in this thread.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2006, 12:34:23 am by silvertip »
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #34 on: January 25, 2006, 01:44:55 pm »

If you look at the team stats in conference, ballhandling isn't what sticks out. The 30% from the arc does, and our rebounding numbers are still low. We need a pure shooter worse than we need a point. Due to a need we could really use a shooter at that position, even if ballhandling is adequate.

On the other hand, even though our TO/pos numbers are low, so are our A/pos. I don't see anybody out there creating shots for their teammates. My impression is that Jefferson is getting his assists in transition and feeding the post. He doesn't score, and he doesn't penetrate. Our FG percentages are at the bottom of the conference. Part of that is certainly shooting, but not all of it. We actually have a post game, unlike some SEC teams. NBA scouts won't even compare Jefferson with Taurean Green, Steele, Watson, or Rondo. No contest. Heath would trade him for any of those guys in a heartbeat.

Only 4 SEC teams are forcing TOs in conference: UT, UF, UGA, and Ole Miss. Tonight is the first time we face a pressure defense. The real tests will be UF and UT. I'm interested to see how our ballhandling holds up. We start to find out tonight.

Well, Niels, if our asst/pos are low, you sure can't blame DJ since he is near the top of the country in assists. Only way you could "stat" that away is if Hawgs have a really higher than average # of possessions & that's not the case.

Here we go again with trying to discount DJs assist total. You and others want to call them "in transition" "easy passes on the perimeter" blah blah blah. I see no reason at all to belive that all the other point guards in the country don't get just as many assists that way. In fact, since a lot of teams in the country are better than the Hawgs at 3pt shooting & transition O---then I say those other PGs are padding their stats with cheap assists. Can you imagine DJ's assist #s if he was making those "easy" passes to JJ Reddick?
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Highway Hog Sign

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #35 on: January 25, 2006, 01:53:22 pm »

Statistics never lie....and all liars use statistics

When I watch Dontell, I don't see him do anything I want to see an Arkansas Razorback do. He doesn't attack the basket. He picks up his dribble WAY to early. When he passes, he makes the easy pass to the guy to his immediate right or left..he never looks for the guys inside. He doesn't skip pass to the other side of the court when there are people open for threes. He doesn't create. He seems content with his mediocre play. :razorback:

Well, I don't care about your BB "experience." Aside from picking it up way too early, I disagree with most of your other assertions. Do you think a Razorback should play tough D, rebound , steal the ball, & block shots? In RBs, steals,& blocks-- DJ is 6th, 3rd, and 1st among SEC PGs. In playing tough D he is also above average. I can SEE that just watching the games & then I look at stats to check my impressions. The FACTS confirm what I'm seeing & blow your "impressions" out of the water.

As far as 'Not creating" or "making easy passes"---I don't care whether it's not an ESPN high-light play. FACT is, DJ is FIRST in the SEC in total assists & assist rate. He is SECOND in the SEC in assist/TO ratio. Some fool in another post said DJ turns it over too much. It would show up in assist/TO ratio if that was the case. It is not. Anyone wanting to whine about TOs check out Pookies & Eric's numbers. Pitiful. And I didn't need stats to SEE that.

Enuff of this. If you think you "see" the game better than me, your BB experience was wasted.

You're the one who told me how I should see a game.  It wasn't me who suggested I see the game better than you, it was the other way around.  Check the thread.  It was you who made the smart-mouth comment about "tape every Hog game you can" and "YOU CAN DO THIS if you can post here."  To even compare or to argue who sees the game better is the silliest thing I've ever read on this board, so I'm ending this whole "Who sees the game better" deal right now.

I just think it's so weird how two hog fans can have exactly polar opposite opinions.

"Jefferson's the best PG in the league!  Look at the stats!!"

"Jefferson blows.  He's the worst player on the team."

Weird.  We'll have to agree to disagree, I guess. :razorback:
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #36 on: January 25, 2006, 02:09:21 pm »

Please don't compare Jefferson with Modica or Ferguson. Both  are shoot first guys so assists will be lower not to mention they are not PGs. They also try and do something with the ball which will obviously lead to more turnovers. If jefferson ever got close enough to the lane for someone to attempt a steal he would turn it over more as well. Do i think he should shoot much more? No. Am I glad he doesn't turn the ball over much? Yes.

To compare these 3 players isn't fair to any of them. They all play their own roles.

Good points, hogfankb. I don't like bashing players at all. But you can get sucked in easily when defending a guy getting bashed relentlessly, when less skilled players are really the problem.

If y'all think I'm taking an arrogant tone with some people in this thread, you're right. I'm "baiting" a lot of the Heath-bashers, because I really get p.o.'d when people bash a player as a tool for bashing the coach. I originally started posting on Clay's Hawg Lounge in '02 because I got sick of the huggers running down Matt Jones as a way of defending HDN's thumbsucking O.

I'm not "in love" with any of our players or coaches. If I think players aren't very good, I try to keep it to myself. But when people start running down a Hawg player to make points in some silly argument; then I think they desrved to me mocked. Ask me what I REALLY think.
 
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Dillon23

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #37 on: January 25, 2006, 02:32:33 pm »

The fact that I am responding to this nonsense is beyond me....DJ should not even be on the team, much less talked about as one of the top point guards in the SEC.  He SUCKS!!  If you don't think so, just wait and see how high he gets drafted.....In a few years, you can go to your local Wal-Mart and talk to him about the glory days of our Ex coach Stan "Soft and Sweet" Heath.
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #38 on: January 25, 2006, 02:35:32 pm »

Hey, Biggus, you are skilled with stats. I wish you or someone would look at what % of our FG attempts are 3pt shots in (1) the games we won & (2) the games we lost. My IMPRESSION is that we jack up a higher % of 3s in the losing games. Maybe not. If my IMPRESSION is proven wrong, then I'm not going to deny the FACTS like a lot of these expert "see-ers" in this thread.

The bias in that is if you're behind you're probably going to shoot more treys, and if the opponent knows you're gonna do it their D will be better, but I will do exactly as you wish.
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hogsanity

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #39 on: January 25, 2006, 02:42:14 pm »

Jefferson is 4/5ths a pg.  He still does not score.  How many pts per game are Rondo and Watson avg?  If Dj was only getting 8 per in sec play we would be 5-0 right now.  He went 3 games without a pt and did not even take a shot in 2 of those. 
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hogfankb

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #40 on: January 25, 2006, 02:44:05 pm »

Please don't compare Jefferson with Modica or Ferguson. Both are shoot first guys so assists will be lower not to mention they are not PGs. They also try and do something with the ball which will obviously lead to more turnovers. If jefferson ever got close enough to the lane for someone to attempt a steal he would turn it over more as well. Do i think he should shoot much more? No. Am I glad he doesn't turn the ball over much? Yes.

To compare these 3 players isn't fair to any of them. They all play their own roles.

Good points, hogfankb. I don't like bashing players at all. But you can get sucked in easily when defending a guy getting bashed relentlessly, when less skilled players are really the problem.

If y'all think I'm taking an arrogant tone with some people in this thread, you're right. I'm "baiting" a lot of the Heath-bashers, because I really get p.o.'d when people bash a player as a tool for bashing the coach. I originally started posting on Clay's Hawg Lounge in '02 because I got sick of the huggers running down Matt Jones as a way of defending HDN's thumbsucking O.

I'm not "in love" with any of our players or coaches. If I think players aren't very good, I try to keep it to myself. But when people start running down a Hawg player to make points in some silly argument; then I think they desrved to me mocked. Ask me what I REALLY think.
 

I still support heath. If we don't make the dance this year THEN he isn't the man for THIS job.

Is jefferson the best PG in the SEC? Not IMO. Is he the reason we aren't a top 10 team? Not IMO. We need a pure shooter more than a better PG. But i do wish he would move/get his teamates better looks than what he does now. But that is hard to do no one on our team has to be respected outside of 15 feet.
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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #41 on: January 25, 2006, 02:56:05 pm »

Silvertip, you have not responded to my post. Would you be willing to add in FT% and change pts/shot to pts/game? I'd be interested to see the results
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Biggus Piggus

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #42 on: January 25, 2006, 02:56:53 pm »

Some stats.

Arkansas in wins vs. losses

2pt FG%
51.7% wins
47.6% losses

3pt FG%
36.0% wins
28.1% losses

FT%
70.4% wins
60.0% losses

Point distribution
Wins 56% 2ptFG 22% 3ptFG 22% FT
Losses 60% 2ptFG 25% 3ptFG 15% FT

Shots
Wins 45 2pt 17 3pt 26 FT
Losses 41 2pt 19 3pt 17 FT

I'm not sure what control we have over free throw attempts, but it sure made a difference forcing the issue at Auburn.  To me the shooting percentages are most significant + they reflect how (not) well we run our offense against good opponents.
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HasidicHog

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #43 on: January 25, 2006, 02:58:50 pm »

Silvertip +   = ManCrush
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hogfankb

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #44 on: January 25, 2006, 03:15:23 pm »

I'm not sure what control we have over free throw attempts, but it sure made a difference forcing the issue at Auburn. To me the shooting percentages are most significant + they reflect how (not) well we run our offense against good opponents.

Attacking the basket and getting the ball to our post players gets you to the free throw line more. Settling for jump shots doesn't.
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #45 on: January 25, 2006, 03:26:54 pm »

the math of your methodology is statistically incoherent.

The math is really quite simple & easily understood. Perhaps you were never good at division?

Sorry, BP, but if there's something that you really are confused about, then I will explain it without wise-cracks.
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Niels Boar

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #46 on: January 25, 2006, 03:31:12 pm »

If you look at the team stats in conference, ballhandling isn't what sticks out. The 30% from the arc does, and our rebounding numbers are still low. We need a pure shooter worse than we need a point. Due to a need we could really use a shooter at that position, even if ballhandling is adequate.

On the other hand, even though our TO/pos numbers are low, so are our A/pos. I don't see anybody out there creating shots for their teammates. My impression is that Jefferson is getting his assists in transition and feeding the post. He doesn't score, and he doesn't penetrate. Our FG percentages are at the bottom of the conference. Part of that is certainly shooting, but not all of it. We actually have a post game, unlike some SEC teams. NBA scouts won't even compare Jefferson with Taurean Green, Steele, Watson, or Rondo. No contest. Heath would trade him for any of those guys in a heartbeat.

Only 4 SEC teams are forcing TOs in conference: UT, UF, UGA, and Ole Miss. Tonight is the first time we face a pressure defense. The real tests will be UF and UT. I'm interested to see how our ballhandling holds up. We start to find out tonight.

Well, Niels, if our asst/pos are low, you sure can't blame DJ since he is near the top of the country in assists. Only way you could "stat" that away is if Hawgs have a really higher than average # of possessions & that's not the case.

Here we go again with trying to discount DJs assist total. You and others want to call them "in transition" "easy passes on the perimeter" blah blah blah. I see no reason at all to belive that all the other point guards in the country don't get just as many assists that way. In fact, since a lot of teams in the country are better than the Hawgs at 3pt shooting & transition O---then I say those other PGs are padding their stats with cheap assists. Can you imagine DJ's assist #s if he was making those "easy" passes to JJ Reddick?


The very low FG percentages and low A/pos are not indicative of a team that is running efficient offense, and the point guard is a big part of that.  The player who creates the shot isn't always the one who gets credit for the assist due to defensive rotation.  Guard penetrates, kicks out, defense shifts, recipient swings the ball to the weak side, wide-open three, refs signals a TD.  Same deal for a scoring threat. 

Do you really believe SEC coaches fear Jefferson with the ball the way do Rondo, who isn't even in the top 10 in conference games in assists?  Puhlease. Never ever taking a shot gives you more opportunities for assists, too.  Rondo, Watson, Steele, and Green need to be double-figure scorers for their teams.  Daniel Gibson only averages 3 assists per games with all the talent Texas has.  In fact, in lists of the top PGs in the nation you see guys who generally average around 15 points and 3 or 4 assists like Darius Washington.  We have lousy overall offensive numbers in the SEC with one of the better frontlines and an All-American on the wing.  It's impossible to believe that our numbers could be this bad with a tremendous asset at PG with the talent out there.  I'm not saying  he's completely inadequate, but he's not even close to elite.   To imply that is a big stretch.
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HasidicHog

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #47 on: January 25, 2006, 03:33:08 pm »

Silvertip + = ManCrush

Some kind of Jewish humor there, HasidicHog? Not too bad when you think about it. How would like a job that takes where that thing goes all the time? WOOOOO PIGGG!!! and Jehovah be praised!!

Oy Vey!
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #48 on: January 25, 2006, 03:45:15 pm »

Jefferson is 4/5ths a pg. He still does not score. How many pts per game are Rondo and Watson avg? If Dj was only getting 8 per in sec play we would be 5-0 right now. He went 3 games without a pt and did not even take a shot in 2 of those.

How many points/game do Watson & Rondo average? Well, gee, hogsanity, I know but I'm not telling YOU. heh heh. Now the rest of this post is not about you, hogsanity

Now I realize that the question you asked is probably a rhetorical question. But it is also a classic sympton of the Nutt-hugger/Heath-basher style. A lack of familiarity with the facts, and for many, lack of knowledge about even where or how to find the facts. OK, for any out there that would sincerely like to know, the stats are at secsports.com Raw data that will give the chart at the top of the page, after you do the math.
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silvertip

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Re: Jefferson, Watson, and Rondo are the top 3 SEC PGs--in that order
« Reply #49 on: January 25, 2006, 04:06:11 pm »

The fact that I am responding to this nonsense is beyond me....DJ should not even be on the team, much less talked about as one of the top point guards in the SEC. He SUCKS!! If you don't think so, just wait and see how high he gets drafted.....In a few years, you can go to your local Wal-Mart and talk to him about the glory days of our Ex coach Stan "Soft and Sweet" Heath.

Amongst this fluff is one thing that deserves addressing. Having "NBA talent" is not the dominant factor in having a good college team. Most college teams are lucky to have one on the roster. Plenty of teams do very well with upperclassmen who are not quite NBA caliber.

So, I don't care what kind of NBA careers all these PGs have. I do believe our '94 NC team had one real NBA player. Now, Beck hung around Charlotte a couple of years. But I don't know if he ever made the roster full-time.

Now, we are capable of putting 4 players out there with NBA potential. DJ's job is to get the ball to them when they're in scoring postion. That's what he is doing. When he can get the ball back from our 2 other guys that want to be "the man."

We're talking about SEC point guards here. NBA is irrelevant. And yes, I agree, this discussion is "beyond you." When your argument consists entirely of "He SUCKS," well then, that has only been said a thousand times on this board. Why don't you go start a "poll" with "sucks" and "don't suck" as the choices.
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