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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 339978 times)

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8950 on: November 06, 2015, 10:16:03 am »

I apologize for this geek post, but I just HAD to share it somewhere.  Last year, I figured out a way to run a LOT of what-if scenarios, but the output wasn't in a very user friendly format, and I ran out of season before figuring that part out.  I got married over the summer so haven't had much time to devote to football this season so just recently got back around to that project.  I got the last kinks worked out of it yesterday evening and was able to run a little over 380,000 what-if scenarios overnight with an output that is easy to sort and filter.  No great discoveries yet, but one trend that is worth watching is at 29-5 ytd.  It likes Purdue +5 and Kansas +29.5.  I'm hesitant to include the trend records here, because it's rare for any one trend to hold true over the long term.  As the old stock phrase goes: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  OK, end of geek excitement (as I'm running another 190,000 what-ifs in the background now).
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8951 on: November 06, 2015, 10:23:25 am »

I apologize for this geek post, but I just HAD to share it somewhere.  Last year, I figured out a way to run a LOT of what-if scenarios, but the output wasn't in a very user friendly format, and I ran out of season before figuring that part out.  I got married over the summer so haven't had much time to devote to football this season so just recently got back around to that project.  I got the last kinks worked out of it yesterday evening and was able to run a little over 380,000 what-if scenarios overnight with an output that is easy to sort and filter.  No great discoveries yet, but one trend that is worth watching is at 29-5 ytd.  It likes Purdue +5 and Kansas +29.5.  I'm hesitant to include the trend records here, because it's rare for any one trend to hold true over the long term.  As the old stock phrase goes: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  OK, end of geek excitement (as I'm running another 190,000 what-ifs in the background now).

I'm not sure anyone in their right mind wants to spot any Texas opponent that many points, so I really like that play actually. 

Also, Illinois could easily get beat by purdue (isnt it at Purdue?).  I think the Purdue ML is a valuable play. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8952 on: November 06, 2015, 12:37:25 pm »

I apologize for this geek post, but I just HAD to share it somewhere.  Last year, I figured out a way to run a LOT of what-if scenarios, but the output wasn't in a very user friendly format, and I ran out of season before figuring that part out.  I got married over the summer so haven't had much time to devote to football this season so just recently got back around to that project.  I got the last kinks worked out of it yesterday evening and was able to run a little over 380,000 what-if scenarios overnight with an output that is easy to sort and filter.  No great discoveries yet, but one trend that is worth watching is at 29-5 ytd.  It likes Purdue +5 and Kansas +29.5.  I'm hesitant to include the trend records here, because it's rare for any one trend to hold true over the long term.  As the old stock phrase goes: past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  OK, end of geek excitement (as I'm running another 190,000 what-ifs in the background now).

Always enjoy updates on the sheets. Keep 'em coming as you see fit. You're having a great year thus far.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8953 on: November 06, 2015, 03:18:18 pm »

not much tonight:

temp/smu ov 51
rice -6
byu-13

So far for Sat ( prob add some more later tonight or early tomorrow a.m. )

mem-9
mich st -6
nc st -4
hous -9
uconn -5.5

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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8954 on: November 06, 2015, 04:00:54 pm »

That mich st line has me sucked in!  I'm on it and got it at -5 or -5.5 earlier in the week.  I think the world is going to be on this side.  A head scratcher for sure. 
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8955 on: November 06, 2015, 04:03:31 pm »

I wondered about that one too.  It looks too good to be true.  I know they've kept a few too many games close and have been bad about not covering, but Nebraska has been just plain bad this year.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8956 on: November 06, 2015, 04:52:07 pm »

I'm playing a 5 unit bet on Michigan st tomorrow as well
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8957 on: November 06, 2015, 05:04:29 pm »

Here's what i have:

(Tonight) Temple/SMU over 51...4*

Michigan st -6...5*
Cincinnati +9...5*
Florida St +10.5...4*
Oklahoma st +6...4*
NC state -4...3*

Good luck everyone


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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8958 on: November 06, 2015, 05:14:36 pm »

Temple -13
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8959 on: November 06, 2015, 06:38:37 pm »

Will, I'm 0-5 since you declared me king of NCAA. You better do something to reverse this. Tell me I suck or something.

I saw this earlier, but I knew you'd pull out of it. I'm really just amazed that I was able to pass on the "bragging" curse to someone else. Usually hits me after I think I'm doing well. Even with the 0-fer I'd still wager you were at or near the top of the heap this year, at least on here.

I imagine I'll only play a few this weekend, as I seem to have much better results the lower number of games I bet.

I'm with you tonight on Temple, so we'll probably both lose now.

Temple -13

I rarely do teasers or parlays, and I don't count them in my record, but tonight I've got one with the over and Temple -13.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2015, 10:56:02 am by WILL CLINTON »
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8960 on: November 06, 2015, 06:59:58 pm »

Took SMU+13. 79 % of bets in Temple. Will try my luck with fading the public
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8961 on: November 06, 2015, 11:22:23 pm »

Tommorow's card:

OK St +5.5
SC +17.5
LSU +7
Hogs+10
Tulsa -16.5
Pitt +8.5

28-27 YTD
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8962 on: November 06, 2015, 11:28:27 pm »

I swear I looked at that score and it was a 6 point game with 4 minutes left. How in the world did it end up 20 and a cover?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8963 on: November 07, 2015, 12:44:36 am »

Tallied it up finally.....

22-15-3 NCAA (60%)

WAS 20-9-3 before Will hit me with the voodoo doodoo

I'm sure someone can top that

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8964 on: November 07, 2015, 05:11:54 am »

Nebraska +6....W
Bama -7.....W
Oklahoma state +6....W
Florida State +12....W
« Last Edit: November 07, 2015, 10:38:18 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8965 on: November 07, 2015, 06:46:58 am »

I swear I looked at that score and it was a 6 point game with 4 minutes left. How in the world did it end up 20 and a cover?
Got a little weird...2 point conversions and pick 6's.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8966 on: November 07, 2015, 08:43:53 am »

Making my biggest play of the year today. Prob means I will jinx it.

NC ST -4 / 3 dimes
Penn ST pk / 2 units
Clemson -12 4 units
S Carolina +17.5 / 2 units
Duke +7 / 2 units
LSU +7 / 2 units
Kentucky +16 / 2 units
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8967 on: November 07, 2015, 08:48:34 am »

temp/smu ov 51


Good call!  Looks like the bet of the weekend.  So much for Temple's #9 scoring defense. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8968 on: November 07, 2015, 08:50:10 am »

And to round out my morning before going to the gym my 5 year old got tangled in the covers on the bed and yelled "darn I'm stuck". Okay it changed the real word to darn.  The word he said started with SH and ended with T was an I mixed in.

After a thorough and proper reprimand I will outside to release the laughter.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8969 on: November 07, 2015, 09:26:35 am »

And to round out my morning before going to the gym my 5 year old got tangled in the covers on the bed and yelled "darn I'm stuck". Okay it changed the real word to darn.  The word he said started with SH and ended with T was an I mixed in.

After a thorough and proper reprimand I will outside to release the laughter.

Haha that's hilarious!  How were able to hold it back before the discipline?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8970 on: November 07, 2015, 09:30:09 am »

Haha that's hilarious!  How were able to hold it back before the discipline?


Was very very difficult
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8971 on: November 07, 2015, 09:39:56 am »

Michigan State has now dropped to -3.5.  They may suck me in before the day is over.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8972 on: November 07, 2015, 10:37:24 am »

I really like Pitt today +9.5 at home against the Irish. But Catholic guy so cheer for Notre Dame usually. Always been a Pitt fan.

Gonna leave it alone. Can't pull the trigger even though I think it's a good bet.
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8973 on: November 07, 2015, 10:51:55 am »

Kentucky +17
Vandy.     +21
Taco Tech +8
Purdue     +4

Ultimate underdog 4 team parlay.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8974 on: November 07, 2015, 11:07:29 am »

I swear I looked at that score and it was a 6 point game with 4 minutes left. How in the world did it end up 20 and a cover?
I turned it off after SMU returned the safety kick for a TD to bring them within 5. 15 mins later my phone went off with notifications I had won my bets, and I didn't believe it.

Tallied it up finally.....

22-15-3 NCAA (60%)

WAS 20-9-3 before Will hit me with the voodoo doodoo

I'm sure someone can top that


Dude, that's 69% before my jinx on you. That's a killer rate, and the one after isn't so bad either.

So far this year I've jinxed you on college and killed a whole Sunday of Jeff's by tailing his picks. I'm the pick voodoo master.

This weeks picks:
Georgia -16.5
Penn St -1.5
Memphis -10
Utah +2
Az St +2

Edit: I added an in-game line of:
Duke +350 ML
Duke +10.5
« Last Edit: November 07, 2015, 11:18:52 am by WILL CLINTON »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8975 on: November 07, 2015, 01:09:55 pm »

Dukies getting destroyed.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8976 on: November 07, 2015, 01:12:40 pm »

Dukies getting destroyed.

That Miami game must have just destroyed them. This is one of the worst games I've seen for a Cutcliffe QB, and NC is just having a field day through the air. I'm trying to find live betting lines to buy back my mistake.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8977 on: November 07, 2015, 01:54:54 pm »

Haven't been able to correct my mistake in the Duke game, so I'm adding:

Houston -8
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8978 on: November 07, 2015, 02:30:28 pm »

Quit chasing. Nothing good comes from chasing.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8979 on: November 07, 2015, 03:44:48 pm »

Congrats on NC State, and THANKS for sharing! 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8980 on: November 07, 2015, 04:14:55 pm »

Congrats on NC State, and THANKS for sharing! 


Thanks.   Can't believe Penn ST Effed me again.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8981 on: November 07, 2015, 07:55:30 pm »

Quit chasing. Nothing good comes from chasing.

Had this conversation with myself when I almost took a Duke live line of +34.5, and Duke 2nd half line. I had been eyeing Houston but should have left it alone.

To be honest though, I'm still on cloud 9 from that Arkansas ending and not even focusing on my 1-5 day.


Just going to take my lumps today.
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HawgLife4Eva

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8982 on: November 07, 2015, 08:22:22 pm »

Had this conversation with myself when I almost took a Duke live line of +34.5, and Duke 2nd half line. I had been eyeing Houston but should have left it alone.

To be honest though, I'm still on cloud 9 from that Arkansas ending and not even focusing on my 1-5 day.


Just going to take my lumps today.

Lumps indeed. Jeez.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8983 on: November 07, 2015, 08:24:34 pm »

i am getting killed today and last night, but the hog win makes it all better
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8984 on: November 07, 2015, 10:46:06 pm »

Decent day....
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8985 on: November 07, 2015, 10:55:55 pm »

NFL bets

Taking Denver -5 vs Colts
Steelers -5 vs Raiders
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8986 on: November 08, 2015, 08:30:24 am »

5 team parlay that won't hit but I will show it.

Steelers -5.5
Jets -7
Bills -2.5
Giants -2
Broncos -3
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8987 on: November 08, 2015, 10:56:30 am »

4-1 yesterday. Got suckered in on that Michigan State game with the majority of general public when I know better than to stay away from the "sure thing" bets.

Gonna push it a hair today in NFL:

Packers -3..3*
Reskins +14.5...2*
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8988 on: November 08, 2015, 01:32:01 pm »

4-0 yesterday.....I'll give it back today

Colts +4
Bucs +2
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8989 on: November 08, 2015, 03:15:58 pm »

Eeked by again over the weekend at 7-6 for +3 units, making it 65-50-1 for +18 units ytd.  Nothing too exciting, but I'll take another week in the + column, try to learn from a few of my screw ups/lapses of discipline, crunch some more numbers, and try again next week.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8990 on: November 08, 2015, 03:47:01 pm »

Eeked by again over the weekend at 7-6 for +3 units, making it 65-50-1 for +18 units ytd.  Nothing too exciting, but I'll take another week in the + column, try to learn from a few of my screw ups/lapses of discipline, crunch some more numbers, and try again next week.

Thanks for your picks and all the time you put into them. Anytime you end the week + is a good thing!!  Keep them coming and good luck
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8991 on: November 08, 2015, 10:51:56 pm »


Tuesday 0-1
Wednesday 0-1
Thursday 1-0
Friday 1-0
Saturday 4-0
Sunday 1-1

7-3 for the week

26-15 NCAA
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8992 on: November 09, 2015, 09:15:22 am »

26-15 NCAA

Great week.  63% YTD is pretty sweet too! 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8993 on: November 09, 2015, 05:52:36 pm »

Went 3-3 Saturday bringing me to 31-30 YTD. Won on OK St, Hogs, and SC. Losses with Tulsa, LSU (suckered), and Pitt.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8994 on: November 09, 2015, 05:55:55 pm »

Early early leans:

RUT +9.5 vs NEB
OU +3 @ BAY
COL +16 vs USC
CIN -17 vs TUL
IL +17 vs OSU
SC +7.5 vs FL
Stan -9 vs ORE
WA St +9.5 @ UCLA
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8995 on: November 10, 2015, 05:16:39 pm »

Central Michigan +4
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8996 on: November 10, 2015, 06:33:29 pm »

Toledo -3
Kent st +7
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8997 on: November 11, 2015, 04:40:08 pm »

Here's what I've done so far, 2 units each on:

Temple -3
Neb -9.5
S. Miss -7
Ok St. -13.5 (h)
GA So. -6.5
Mich St. -15
ULL +3
V. Tech +3.5
Utah -6

One unit on:

NIU -7
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8998 on: November 11, 2015, 06:05:42 pm »

Bowling Green -3
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yardpig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8999 on: November 11, 2015, 06:20:19 pm »

Here's what I've done so far, 2 units each on:

Temple -3
Neb -9.5
S. Miss -7
Ok St. -13.5 (h)
GA So. -6.5
Mich St. -15
ULL +3
V. Tech +3.5
Utah -6

One unit on:

NIU -7

Been following your picks for several years now.  Thanks for posting.

Interestingly, this week, you have 9 visiting teams out of 10, with 7 of those being favorites.  This may have happened in the past, but I never noticed.   Have you ever checked your results to see if visiting favorites, home underdogs, visiting underdogs or home favorites had more of a tendency to be successful on different trends; a trend within a trend.
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