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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 341677 times)

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Fort Dweller

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8700 on: October 10, 2015, 04:25:49 pm »

So much for my Tennessee cover.

Quite the crazy last 5 minutes
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8701 on: October 10, 2015, 04:50:20 pm »

I just knew today was Clemson choke day. Boy was I wrong!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8702 on: October 10, 2015, 04:54:24 pm »

Wake +8.5 / 3 units
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8703 on: October 10, 2015, 05:01:45 pm »

Miami +7 / 2 units
Florida -5 / 2 units
TCU -9 / dime play
Cal +7.5 / 5 units
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8704 on: October 10, 2015, 09:03:43 pm »

BA has $ on Bama.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8705 on: October 10, 2015, 09:29:41 pm »

Added Utah -8
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8706 on: October 10, 2015, 10:22:55 pm »

Boy I gotta stay out of MMQB tonight or I'm gonna get banned again.
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8707 on: October 10, 2015, 10:27:05 pm »

Boy I gotta stay out of MMQB tonight or I'm gonna get banned again.

Don't do Jeff! You know the mods are just waiting on you!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8708 on: October 10, 2015, 11:10:52 pm »

2-2 today winning on MIC and K St. Lost on GT and MTSU, bringing me 20-18 YTD. A little disappointed those L's weren't closer. UGA seems to have left the East for FL's taking and I thought our Hogs held their own tonight. Cheers fellas.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8709 on: October 11, 2015, 08:17:40 am »

Another 2-1 Saturday. I guess I'll take hitting 66%, but I sure do wish I could sweep it just once.
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3kgthog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8710 on: October 11, 2015, 09:31:23 am »

A big California howdy to Utah for being the final piece to a massive parlay win before going conservative and blowing up the whole thing. Thanks!
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8711 on: October 11, 2015, 09:43:24 am »

Went 6-4 yesterday (one losing bet was a parlay).  Not great but over .500.

I was sweating the Hogs +17 at the end.  Thank god for the scramble play to Reed. 

Taking falcons -7, Packers -9 and Bengals -3 today.  Thinking about the Rangers tonight.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8712 on: October 11, 2015, 10:41:40 am »

Freaking TCU cost me a 7 team parlay yesterday.  Bastards.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8713 on: October 11, 2015, 10:46:33 am »

Straight bets so far today

Buffalo - 1 / 5 units
Baltimore -6.5 / 2 units
Baltimore Cleveland under 43 / 2 units
Atlanta -6.5 / 2 units
Seattle and Cincy under 43.5 / 2 units
Pats -8.5 / 5 units
Pats Cows over 50 / 2 units
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iCalledThatHogBrotha!

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8714 on: October 11, 2015, 11:30:56 am »

Did not hit much yesterday, but that last TD saved my hogs +17 pick, and hit a $1 Texas / Wash St SU parlay for $50 :)
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8715 on: October 11, 2015, 02:29:00 pm »

Raiders +4
Cowboys +8
Lions +4
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8716 on: October 11, 2015, 03:40:34 pm »

Straight bets so far today

Buffalo - 1 / 5 units
Baltimore -6.5 / 2 units
Baltimore Cleveland under 43 / 2 units
Atlanta -6.5 / 2 units
Seattle and Cincy under 43.5 / 2 units
Pats -8.5 / 5 units
Pats Cows over 50 / 2 units

Jeff, as much as I hate to admit it, I tailed you on all these, and it looks like they aren't going to come in at your normal clip, the Will Clinton NFL curse. I can't imagine me making another NFL bet for the rest of my time on this earth.

went 5-5 on the week, overall record to 18-14-4

Broke the streak of pushes, but they went the wrong way to the L column.

Georgia -3.5 (hook) L
SMU +25  W
Washington +17   W
Bowling Green -13   W
OU -14.5   L
Florida -5   W
Michigan -9    W
Mich St -14   L
Oregon -17 L
Utah -8   L
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8717 on: October 11, 2015, 10:24:31 pm »

so far for this week

BG -13 W
ark +16.5 W
OU -16.5 L
BC -7.5 L
fla -4.5 W
ga -2.5 L
clem -7.5 W
tcu-8.5 L
Cal + 6.5 W

isu/tt ov 74.5 W
wsu/or ov 70 W
latech/utsa ov 57 W
cal/utah ov 61 L
wf/bc un 37 W
syr/usf un 48.5 L

1.5 units on each

Went 9-6.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8718 on: October 11, 2015, 11:04:37 pm »

First ever middle play and it worked!!!  Yall liked pictures so figured is include one. 

I got absolutely stroked on Saturday, UGA sucker bet cleaned my clock the. Drunk and pissed off played hogs 2h against bama...

I hammered Kuechel on ML and RL today the. Hit a couple nice NFL plays with this middle to make money on the weekend.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8719 on: October 12, 2015, 09:31:56 am »

The 25-1 trend took a dip down to 60% (6-4), darn it.  This is why I never rely on just one trend in making my final cuts.  Naturally, the 4 games on which I passed went 3-1.  I still ended up having a pretty good weekend going 69% (9-4), next post.  Hopefully, the spreadsheets now have enough data to start getting dialed in and to start showing some consistency.
The trend that was 25-1 ytd as of last week looks a bit questionable this week, with 10 picks.  Don't put too much stock in it.  It likes:

Clemson -7  W
FIU -14  W
Iowa -11  L
Kansas +44  L
Pitt -10.5  L
TN +3  W
Tulsa -9.5  W
UNLV +2.5  W
Utah -7.5  L
W. KY -8.5  W

B/c of injuries, I am staying away from FIU, Kansas, and UNLV.  I'm staying away from TN because they wouldn't take the game that we tried to give to them last week.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8720 on: October 12, 2015, 09:42:09 am »

Had another pretty good week, going 9-4 for +5 units, making it +8 units ytd.  The last three weeks have been 6-3-1, 6-3, and 9-4, so I'm hoping that the spreadsheets now have enough data to start showing some consistency.  Here's hoping that doesn't invoke the golf/premature trash-talking curse!

Here's what I've done so far this week.  One unit each on:

OK -16.5  L
Iowa -10 (h)  L
Toledo -14 (h)  W
App -15  W
Pitt -10  L
Wash St. +17  W
W. KY -7 (h)  W
Tulsa -9  W
Clemson -6.5  W
Utah -7  L
Boise -16  W
Wis +1.5  W
Utah St. -11.5 W
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8721 on: October 12, 2015, 12:41:02 pm »

Had another pretty good week, going 9-4 for +5 units, making it +8 units ytd.  The last three weeks have been 6-3-1, 6-3, and 9-4, so I'm hoping that the spreadsheets now have enough data to start showing some consistency.  Here's hoping that doesn't invoke the golf/premature trash-talking curse!


Nice week
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iCalledThatHogBrotha!

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8722 on: October 12, 2015, 12:57:22 pm »

The 25-1 trend took a dip down to 60% (6-4), darn it.  This is why I never rely on just one trend in making my final cuts.  Naturally, the 4 games on which I passed went 3-1.  I still ended up having a pretty good weekend going 69% (9-4), next post.  Hopefully, the spreadsheets now have enough data to start getting dialed in and to start showing some consistency.

Mind if I ask what trend you are looking at there?  Thanks.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8723 on: October 12, 2015, 04:42:42 pm »

Mind if I ask what trend you are looking at there?  Thanks.

The trends are all homemade.  I download the data from 50+ power rating systems for free at www.thepredictiontracker.com and download stats from http://stats.ncaa.org/ and use spreadsheets to data mine the crap out of it and to try to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of the different power rating systems and how the strengths and weaknesses of different rating systems overlap.  As an example, Kerns' power rating system is currently hitting at over 56% ats ytd on all fbs-1A games.  On Home Dogs, Kerns' has hit at over 64% ats ytd, and on Road teams with better SU records, Kerns has hit at 69% ats ytd.  A lot of the trends turn out to be garbage.  My challenge is trying to figure out which ones are reasonably reliable and which ones are garbage.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8724 on: October 12, 2015, 07:01:16 pm »

Steelers +4 / 3 units
Over 45.5 / 1 unit.  Think I may have goofed that, but oh well
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Junkyard Hog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8725 on: October 13, 2015, 08:11:59 am »

Already placed a couple of units on Bama -5 for Saturday.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8726 on: October 14, 2015, 02:57:13 pm »

Here's what I've done so far this week, one unit each on:

BYU -6.5
Colo St. +3
EC -10 (h)
GA Tech -3
K State +5
Memph +10.5
OH -3 (h)
SJ St -3
MO +16
Ut -6.5
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8727 on: October 14, 2015, 10:51:23 pm »

Leans right now:

MIC -8
Vandy +3
A&M +4
BGSU -11.5
Marshall -6.5
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8728 on: October 15, 2015, 08:12:19 am »

Michigan and Marshall show up in a decent number of nice trends, and A&M shows up in a few.  Good luck! 
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8729 on: October 15, 2015, 09:46:05 am »

I've been riding the toledo bandwagon since they beat us and they have covered every time.  Was also riding the harbaugh bus until I made the mistake of jumping off last week and taking NW and the points.  I'm getting back on this week.  Mich st has not looked good lately and has had quite a few injuries. 
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8730 on: October 15, 2015, 10:54:54 am »

So far for this week

Cin ML    L
Houston -19 W
Purdue +24 W
old miss -10 ( hook ) L
lsu -9.5 L
tcu-20 W
nd -6.5 W
unlv/fresno ov 52 W
bama.a&m ov 54 W
bc/clem ov 36.5 W
wf/nc un 52 L

Added

Aub/KY un 56 L
KY  un 27 PUSH
Au un 28.5 L
ucla/stan un 56 L

atl -3 L

« Last Edit: October 19, 2015, 08:42:24 am by hogsanity »
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8731 on: October 15, 2015, 12:39:05 pm »

I've been riding the toledo bandwagon since they beat us and they have covered every time.  Was also riding the harbaugh bus until I made the mistake of jumping off last week and taking NW and the points.  I'm getting back on this week.  Mich st has not looked good lately and has had quite a few injuries.

I'm glad to see someone else on Toledo.  I've been laughed at for playing them, but like you said, they've been winning.  I do think this week though they are against a big spread.
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Piglet Dispersion Syndrome

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8732 on: October 15, 2015, 02:38:10 pm »

Michigan and Marshall show up in a decent number of nice trends, and A&M shows up in a few.  Good luck! 

May I ask where you look to for these trends?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8733 on: October 15, 2015, 04:24:28 pm »

They are my own, home-grown creations using spreadsheets, the power rating system data that you can download at thepredictiontracker.com and statistical data downloaded from the ncaa site.  I go into a bit more detail a few posts up.   
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8734 on: October 15, 2015, 05:42:35 pm »

Falcons -3
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8735 on: October 15, 2015, 06:15:06 pm »

UCLA +7
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8736 on: October 15, 2015, 10:57:39 pm »

Falcons -3

What a sucker bet. I was on the same side as you
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8737 on: October 15, 2015, 11:10:25 pm »

What a sucker bet. I was on the same side as you

I am just so bad at nfl games.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8738 on: October 16, 2015, 08:22:53 am »

I am just so bad at nfl games.

After a year or three of winning on Saturdays and losing on Sundays, I finally quit playing nfl games.  For a short time, I actually tried to fade myself on nfl picks ... making my picks and then taking the opposite teams.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8739 on: October 16, 2015, 06:53:21 pm »

0-4 in my last 4 nfl games....

9-3 last 12 NCAA games.

Pattern identified......

Utah St. +8
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8740 on: October 16, 2015, 08:20:45 pm »

Baylor / Dime play
Clemson -16 / 3 units
Bama -3 / 5 units
Notre Dame -4 / 3 units
Louisville +7 / 5 units
Texas Tech -32.5 / 5 units

Possibly more to come

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8741 on: October 16, 2015, 08:42:12 pm »

Got a unit on the Boise/UtahSt over 50
Got a unit on Ole Miss -10.5
Got several units on Bama -5
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8742 on: October 16, 2015, 10:13:36 pm »

Got a unit on the Boise/UtahSt over 50

Always nice to cover before halftime.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8743 on: October 17, 2015, 12:41:18 am »


Utah St. +8

Jeez man, you're on fire in NCAA.

I had Houston -20, but just got home from work and traveled all day before, so didn't get to post. Here's the proof.

Here's tomorrow's card:

Mich St +7
Bowling Green -10
Ball St -13
Ole Miss -10

Starting off Saturday 1-1 on the week.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8744 on: October 17, 2015, 09:37:16 am »

Michigan -6
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8745 on: October 17, 2015, 09:43:05 am »

I got absolutely smoked last weekend hopefully will do better today.

Florida +7, 5*
USC +7, 5*
OU -4, 4*
OU/K. State over 54, 3*
Oregon +3, 3*
A&M +3.5, 3*
Michigan St +7, 4*
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8746 on: October 17, 2015, 10:31:25 am »

MIC -7 (Love this)
Vandy ML +104
FL +6.5
A&M +4.5
Bay -20.5 (Jeff prompted me to look into this and really ended up liking it)
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8747 on: October 17, 2015, 10:55:50 am »

My top 5 plays today.
Georgia Tech -3 L
A&M +4 L
Clemson -16 W
Louisville +7 L
Mich St/Michi Over 42  W

YTD: 16-12
« Last Edit: October 24, 2015, 10:30:52 am by yraciv »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8748 on: October 17, 2015, 12:35:13 pm »

Jeez man, you're on fire in NCAA.

I had Houston -20, but just got home from work and traveled all day before, so didn't get to post. Here's the proof.

Here's tomorrow's card:

Mich St +7
Bowling Green -10
Ball St -13
Ole Miss -10

Starting off Saturday 1-1 on the week.

I need to tally it up but I'm doing pretty good in college football. Gotta stay away from the pros though, geeze..
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8749 on: October 17, 2015, 12:35:34 pm »

I got absolutely smoked last weekend hopefully will do better today.

Florida +7, 5*
USC +7, 5*
OU -4, 4*
OU/K. State over 54, 3*
Oregon +3, 3*
A&M +3.5, 3*
Michigan St +7, 4*

That Florida line scares the hell out of me with their starting QB now suspended for the year.
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