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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340076 times)

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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8650 on: October 05, 2015, 09:13:24 pm »

fla -4.5 and GA -2.5 where I play. and I am taking both of those.
That UF spread looks awful tempting but maybe they are due for a letdown after two consecutive big wins over Tenn and Mississippi.  This may be the game Mizzou pulls it out.

2 weeks ago I got completely destroyed.  had a great weekend though this past one. won 9 of 12 straight bets, one the money line on the hogs which paid +230.  Now I'm feeling much better!   

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8651 on: October 05, 2015, 09:51:48 pm »

Initial leans:

K St +9
LSU -13
MIC -8
GT +7.5
TN +3
MIZ +5
CAL +7
MIA +9.5

Put the K9 Unit on duty Saturday I guess
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8652 on: October 06, 2015, 01:28:44 pm »

It's not looking certain that the LSU/SC game will be played at Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia this Saturday due to the ravage flooding. I was able to lock LSU in at -13.5 luckily as I've heard it being removed from some books due to the uncertain venue of the game now and possible relocating to Baton Rouge. I would take a look at your book asap if this news intrigues you like it did me.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8653 on: October 06, 2015, 08:00:20 pm »

Probably an idiot but played Yankees tonight and over 7.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8654 on: October 06, 2015, 11:34:18 pm »

Probably an idiot but played Yankees tonight and over 7.

I stopped putting any action on baseball a long time ago. It is such a strange game. Trends do not hold because the pitchers change day to day. A game where the last place team still wins 60+ tmes a year.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8655 on: October 07, 2015, 08:13:35 am »

It's been very profitable for me this year.  Got to find a balance of moneylines, parlaying big ML's, and then of course the run line plus money is always nice.

I was all over the Astros with DK pitching last night.  ML and RL.
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8656 on: October 07, 2015, 08:29:47 am »

Taking Pitt+121.  Cole is 7-1 vs the cubs and 3-0 againist them while pitching at home.  Lot of money being bet on the Cubs will wait and see if I can possiblity get +130

Good luck

Spikes
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8657 on: October 07, 2015, 12:35:56 pm »

Well my book voided my LSU bet once announced the game would be played in Baton Rouge. How is that any different than a star player being ruled out unexpectedly and the line moves 3 or 4 points? Although this one should move more than that but surely no more than 6 or 7. 
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8658 on: October 07, 2015, 12:48:01 pm »

Well my book voided my LSU bet once announced the game would be played in Baton Rouge. How is that any different than a star player being ruled out unexpectedly and the line moves 3 or 4 points? Although this one should move more than that but surely no more than 6 or 7. 

I would guess it is because a player can be injured during a game too, but the location change is really rare< but thats just a guess.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8659 on: October 07, 2015, 04:19:11 pm »

The trend that was 25-1 ytd as of last week looks a bit questionable this week, with 10 picks.  Don't put too much stock in it.  It likes:

Clemson -7
FIU -14
Iowa -11
Kansas +44
Pitt -10.5
TN +3
Tulsa -9.5
UNLV +2.5
Utah -7.5
W. KY -8.5

Another, closely related trend that is 23-1 YTD has that list pared down to:

FIU -14
Iowa -11
UNLV +2.5
Utah -7.5
W. KY -8.5

B/c of injuries, I am staying away from FIU, Kansas, and UNLV.  I'm staying away from TN because they wouldn't take the game that we tried to give to them last week.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8660 on: October 07, 2015, 04:21:28 pm »

Here's what I've done so far this week.  One unit each on:

OK -16.5
Iowa -10 (h)
Toledo -14 (h)
App -15
Pitt -10
Wash St. +17
W. KY -7 (h)
Tulsa -9
Clemson -6.5
Utah -7
Boise -16
Wis +1.5
Utah St. -11.5
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8661 on: October 07, 2015, 04:58:01 pm »

I would guess it is because a player can be injured during a game too, but the location change is really rare< but thats just a guess.

Yeah, I figure it has to do with the rarity of the circumstance.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8662 on: October 07, 2015, 06:12:32 pm »

Liking Florida against Mizzou, and Georgia against Tennessee, and probably going to get in on those early, as i feel those lines will move away from me by Friday/Saturday. I'm basically just waiting on the lines to release at Sportsbook.ag.

Florida moved to -5.5, but Georgia has stayed right about where it started at -3.5. I'm going to go ahead and get on Georgia, but I'm waiting until Friday to see if the line moves back down to the 3 range for the Florida game. I also like Michigan and Mich St, and something is telling me to watch the Bowling Green line which is -13.5 right now. I'll finalize sometime before Saturday, but Georgia is a done deal.

Georgia -3.5 (hook)
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8663 on: October 07, 2015, 09:15:05 pm »

Yeah, I figure it has to do with the rarity of the circumstance.

You have to respect them doing that with the game being moved to Baton Rouge.  That's possibly a 10 point line move
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8664 on: October 08, 2015, 09:32:26 am »

I still like LSU at home -20. SCarolina looks like a wet paper sack.
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8665 on: October 08, 2015, 09:39:17 am »

Won on the under 5.5 on Cubs last night.  If Arietta is pitching the other team is not scoring it seems.  Got under 5.5 on dodgers/mets tomorrow.  DeGrom is pretty good and Kershaw is pitching well right now. 

Like under on Northwestern/UM, Hogs/Bama, SC/UW

Thinking about Mizzou, WVU and Wash st.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8666 on: October 08, 2015, 10:16:21 am »

so far for this week

BG -13 W
ark +16.5 W
OU -16.5 L
BC -7.5 L
fla -4.5 W
ga -2.5 L
clem -7.5 W
tcu-8.5 L
Cal + 6.5 W

isu/tt ov 74.5 W
wsu/or ov 70 W
latech/utsa ov 57 W
cal/utah ov 61 L
wf/bc un 37 W
syr/usf un 48.5 L

1.5 units on each
« Last Edit: October 11, 2015, 10:24:05 pm by hogsanity »
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Piglet Dispersion Syndrome

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8667 on: October 08, 2015, 01:25:53 pm »

Ask any question you want, bullet them and I'll try to respond to each to help you. 

1.Is there a site/forum that discusses picks, and what are the common statistical measures used to decide between picks?

2. Do most find one or two games they really feel good about and bet more, or just spread out the bets between multiple games?

3. Which bets are more profitable, straight bets, spread, or over/unders?

4. I really only watch SEC football EVERY week, so that is usually where I'd feel comfortable making a bet, but I'm sure many here don't even need to be a fan to make an informed bet, just look at the measurables?

5. What things do you look for to bet an over/under, i.e. weather in football, etc?

6. If I have a hypothetical $100 starting cash, how do you determine how much to risk with each bet?

Thanks!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8668 on: October 08, 2015, 02:28:08 pm »

1.Is there a site/forum that discusses picks, and what are the common statistical measures used to decide between picks?

2. Do most find one or two games they really feel good about and bet more, or just spread out the bets between multiple games?

3. Which bets are more profitable, straight bets, spread, or over/unders?

4. I really only watch SEC football EVERY week, so that is usually where I'd feel comfortable making a bet, but I'm sure many here don't even need to be a fan to make an informed bet, just look at the measurables?

5. What things do you look for to bet an over/under, i.e. weather in football, etc?

6. If I have a hypothetical $100 starting cash, how do you determine how much to risk with each bet?

Thanks!

Just read as much as you can about trends for certain teams.

Don't bet on emotion or while drunk

If you are starting with 100, I'd go no more than 5 a game. Some sites won't let you bet that small though. No bookie will either.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8669 on: October 08, 2015, 03:06:19 pm »

1.Is there a site/forum that discusses picks, and what are the common statistical measures used to decide between picks?

2. Do most find one or two games they really feel good about and bet more, or just spread out the bets between multiple games?

3. Which bets are more profitable, straight bets, spread, or over/unders?

4. I really only watch SEC football EVERY week, so that is usually where I'd feel comfortable making a bet, but I'm sure many here don't even need to be a fan to make an informed bet, just look at the measurables?

5. What things do you look for to bet an over/under, i.e. weather in football, etc?

6. If I have a hypothetical $100 starting cash, how do you determine how much to risk with each bet?

Thanks!

I hate reading about games I want to play, but there are some good sites that give insight into trends, etc.

I spread my plays out, I'll play 10-15 college games and maybe 4 or 5 nfl games. I feel I have a much better chance o coming out a little ahead doing that than loading up on 2 or 3 games.

i've done better this year on ov/un bets. There have been some real "easy" ones. Like TCU?tt a couple weeks ago, 2 teams that have been scoring at will, but not stopping anyone, and the over/un was at 77.

On the ov/un you have to look at how have the teams done in their past games. By now everyone has 4 or 5 games played. Are they scoring a ton, even against decent competition? Have they struggled to score against weak opponents? Is the weather going to be bad.

I'll admit, I do not bet big. Where I play, the only restriction is the to win amount has to be at least $1, so you can bet as small as about $1.40-$1.50. I typically won't wager more than about 30% of my bankroll on a Sat. If I have a good day, I may play a little more on Sunday.

I basically do it just to make watching the games a little more interesting.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8670 on: October 08, 2015, 04:48:19 pm »

SMU Houston under 71.5
Washington USC over 58

2 units each
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8671 on: October 08, 2015, 05:06:24 pm »

SMU Houston under 71.5
Washington USC over 58

2 units each

I'm liking the dog in each of those. What you think?

SMU +25
Washington +17

1/2 unit on each

Edit: even though I'm 1-infinity on NFL, I took a half unit on Houston -5.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2015, 07:51:50 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8672 on: October 08, 2015, 08:49:37 pm »

SMU Houston under 71.5
Washington USC over 58

2 units each
I got under on UW/SC tonight.

Took Duke -12.5 over Army.  Army played PSU close but they got 5 turnovers and still lost. 
WSU +17 vs Oregon.  Ducks pass defense sucks and that's what WSU does.
Under 37 on BC/Wake
Under 37 UM/Northwestern.  Probably a 17-10 type game. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8673 on: October 09, 2015, 05:01:20 am »

SMU Houston under 71.5
Washington USC over 58

2 units each


What a cluster!
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8674 on: October 09, 2015, 08:11:24 am »

Did this late yesterday and did not get to post it, but I will brag about it now like a complete jerk:


TICKET   ACCEPTED   TYPE      STATUS   DESCRIPTION
306698684 - 4   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington team total under 20 -110 for Game
306698684 - 3   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington/USC under 58 -110 for Game
306698684 - 2   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM   
Football - 303 Southern Methodist/Houston over 71½ -110 for Game
306698684 - 1   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 301 Indianapolis Colts +205 for Game
306669475   Thursday, October 8, 2015   4 Wager(s) Placed   
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8675 on: October 09, 2015, 08:20:45 am »

Did this late yesterday and did not get to post it, but I will brag about it now like a complete jerk:


TICKET   ACCEPTED   TYPE      STATUS   DESCRIPTION
306698684 - 4   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington team total under 20 -110 for Game
306698684 - 3   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington/USC under 58 -110 for Game
306698684 - 2   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM   
Football - 303 Southern Methodist/Houston over 71½ -110 for Game
306698684 - 1   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 301 Indianapolis Colts +205 for Game
306669475   Thursday, October 8, 2015   4 Wager(s) Placed   


At least your after-the-fact brag contained some semblance of proof. +1
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8676 on: October 09, 2015, 08:58:46 am »

Did this late yesterday and did not get to post it, but I will brag about it now like a complete jerk:


TICKET   ACCEPTED   TYPE      STATUS   DESCRIPTION
306698684 - 4   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington team total under 20 -110 for Game
306698684 - 3   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington/USC under 58 -110 for Game
306698684 - 2   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM   
Football - 303 Southern Methodist/Houston over 71½ -110 for Game
306698684 - 1   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 301 Indianapolis Colts +205 for Game
306669475   Thursday, October 8, 2015   4 Wager(s) Placed   

Nice job!
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8677 on: October 09, 2015, 09:19:36 am »

At least your after-the-fact brag contained some semblance of proof. +1

It will be like when I used to play a lot of golf. As soon as I would talk smack about a shot I had just hit, I'd put the next one in the drink, so tomorrow, I will pay for my brag by losing every play I have on.
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8678 on: October 09, 2015, 09:29:10 am »

It will be like when I used to play a lot of golf. As soon as I would talk smack about a shot I had just hit, I'd put the next one in the drink, so tomorrow, I will pay for my brag by losing every play I have on.

+1

I was playing a couple of weeks ago and on the 18th hole I told the guy I was riding with that I had not made a bogey since the 1st hole. I shanked the next shot OB and made triple.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8679 on: October 09, 2015, 10:05:22 am »

+1

I was playing a couple of weeks ago and on the 18th hole I told the guy I was riding with that I had not made a bogey since the 1st hole. I shanked the next shot OB and made triple.

Best round I ever had going, I come to 17 two under. I said, to my partners, " Finally going to break par for a round ". The last two holes were easy for me, both played to my little fade, and I easily had the distance to cut the corner on both. Drive on 17 is crushed,, hit like I had done 100 times on that hole, except the one little tree on the corner was just a bit taller, and the wind suddenly just a bit in my face, ball hit the top of the tree, and fell right at the base, between two roots. ended up double there, and then cut too much corner on 18 went ob, ended up +2. Never talk smack til the round is over. NEVER!
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8680 on: October 09, 2015, 10:11:20 am »

It will be like when I used to play a lot of golf. As soon as I would talk smack about a shot I had just hit, I'd put the next one in the drink, so tomorrow, I will pay for my brag by losing every play I have on.

Ha, true for my golf game.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8681 on: October 09, 2015, 10:11:58 am »

+1

I was playing a couple of weeks ago and on the 18th hole I told the guy I was riding with that I had not made a bogey since the 1st hole. I shanked the next shot OB and made triple.

Totally, +1
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8682 on: October 09, 2015, 06:38:50 pm »

Did this late yesterday and did not get to post it, but I will brag about it now like a complete jerk:


TICKET   ACCEPTED   TYPE      STATUS   DESCRIPTION
306698684 - 4   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington team total under 20 -110 for Game
306698684 - 3   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 305 Washington/USC under 58 -110 for Game
306698684 - 2   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM   
Football - 303 Southern Methodist/Houston over 71½ -110 for Game
306698684 - 1   Oct 08, 2015 06:08 PM      
Football - 301 Indianapolis Colts +205 for Game
306669475   Thursday, October 8, 2015   4 Wager(s) Placed   


Really nice job on that one. I went to 1-infinity +1 on NFL games last night, but I did hit both my small plays on the NCAA.

SMU Houston under 71.5
Washington USC over 58

2 units each

Sorry about that one Jeff, I believe it was my fault since I tailed you on both. lol.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8683 on: October 09, 2015, 10:41:41 pm »

Sips  +17
UMass  +13.5
Wiscy  -2
Ball St  +10
Cal  +7.5
Okie lite  +7, 2u
N'western  +10, 2u

The others are 1u ea

Week of the dog!
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PIGskin Pride

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8684 on: October 09, 2015, 10:57:01 pm »

Liking

Arkansas +16
Northwestern +10
Wisconsin -2
Georgia -2
OK State +6.5

Haven't researched deeply yet, but I have been pretty hot hitting 5 of my last 6 (Arkansas ML vs TN, Oregon -6 vs CO, Houston Astros Vs NYY, Washington +17 vs USC, and VTECH -3 vs NCSTATE).  Would be perfect so far if I didn't make a small in-game bet on SOMISS tonight. 

I will probably only play Arkansas tomorrow and go pretty large.  If we don't turn the ball over much, it should finish under 10 point margin (like 90% of SEC games without major turnovers).
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8685 on: October 09, 2015, 11:51:17 pm »

So far I've done:

Middle TN +7.5
GT +7.5
K St +10.5

I'm going to play Michigan too, waiting to see if it goes back down.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8686 on: October 10, 2015, 06:04:53 am »

Here's what I'm doing for today...got a big ticket going:

Northwestern, +10.....10 units
Central Michigan, +7.....5 units
Navy, +14.....4 units
Miami, +7.5....4 units
Syracuse, +2....3 units
Michigan St, -13.....3 units
Utah, -7.....4 units


Good luck guys!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8687 on: October 10, 2015, 08:34:48 am »

Vols +3
Mizzou +5
Cal +8
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8688 on: October 10, 2015, 10:47:41 am »

My top 5 plays today.
Ohio State -31.5 L
UMASS +14 L
Toledo -14 W
Miami +10 - grabbed early in the week W
Cal +7.5 W

YTD: 14-9

« Last Edit: October 13, 2015, 02:11:30 pm by yraciv »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8689 on: October 10, 2015, 11:00:27 am »

Indiana +7 / 2 units
Minnesota -3 / 2 units
Okie St +7 / 2 units
Duke -13 / dime play
Ga Tech +7.5 / 5 units
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8690 on: October 10, 2015, 11:02:07 am »

Added Michigan -9.5

18-16 YTD
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8691 on: October 10, 2015, 11:29:18 am »

Bigger day than I originally thought it would be.

Bowling Green -13
OU -14.5
Florida -5
Georgia -3
Michigan -9
Mich St -14
Oregon -17

I really like the fact that there is no consensus winner amongst us all, that way we know the hogville curse won't bite all of us in the ass today..lol
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8692 on: October 10, 2015, 11:53:05 am »

Bigger day than I originally thought it would be.

Bowling Green -13
OU -14.5
Florida -5
Georgia -3
Michigan -9
Mich St -14
Oregon -17

I really like the fact that there is no consensus winner amongst us all, that way we know the hogville curse won't bite all of us in the ass today..lol

That and it isn't Thursday... ;)
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Junkyard Hog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8693 on: October 10, 2015, 12:18:49 pm »

Got the Hawgs, Dawgs, and Gators today
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8694 on: October 10, 2015, 01:12:07 pm »

Really nice job on that one. I went to 1-infinity +1 on NFL games last night, but I did hit both my small plays on the NCAA.

Sorry about that one Jeff, I believe it was my fault since I tailed you on both. lol.


Lol nah. My dumb butt fault for playing two games I didn't really like that much.  Broke my own rule and was looking for something to bet.

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8695 on: October 10, 2015, 01:24:03 pm »

Man I hope this OU game isn't a glimpse of whats to come today. They are getting spanked by UT.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8696 on: October 10, 2015, 01:39:39 pm »

My top 5 plays today.
Ohio State -31.5
UMASS +14
Toledo -14
Miami +10 - grabbed early in the week
Cal +7.5

YTD: 11-7

That Cal-Utah games looks about dead even to me, what do you guys think?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8697 on: October 10, 2015, 03:07:32 pm »

That Cal-Utah games looks about dead even to me, what do you guys think?

I like Cal outright.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8698 on: October 10, 2015, 03:29:09 pm »

I hate putting my position to cheer for the Sips. Almost would've rather lost that one.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8699 on: October 10, 2015, 04:13:06 pm »

So much for my Tennessee cover.
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