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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 326695 times)

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8450 on: September 07, 2015, 10:28:56 pm »

Lines (sides) of interest for the coming weekend:

ECU +20 @ FL
MS St +3.5 vs LSU
AR St. +10.5 vs MIZ
GT -28 vs Tulane
UGA -19.5 @ Vandy
ND -11.5 @ UVA
SMU -4.5 vs No TX
Hogs -21 vs TOL
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8451 on: September 07, 2015, 10:33:42 pm »

BUCKS move me to 4-1 on the season.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8452 on: September 07, 2015, 10:36:31 pm »

I've made it a rule never to play the hogs, even when the line looks ridiculously easy like -21. I'm sticking to my rules this year. I've been burned too many times
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8453 on: September 07, 2015, 10:43:19 pm »

Upon a closer look...Toledo returns a lot of starters from last year. Have a senior qb and are coming off a 9 win season. Looks like they put up a lot of points.

The -21 makes more sense now. I still think it's a hot looking bet...but not bet your entire bankroll type of bet like the Southern Cal/AR State game was this past weekend.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8454 on: September 07, 2015, 10:44:03 pm »

I've made it a rule never to play the hogs, even when the line looks ridiculously easy like -21. I'm sticking to my rules this year. I've been burned too many times
Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8455 on: September 07, 2015, 11:13:02 pm »

Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.

That's Bielema's Mo.  He always has been good ATS.  He will make some hog gamblers money in his time here
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8456 on: September 08, 2015, 01:03:08 am »

Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.

I've been doing this longer than 1 season.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8457 on: September 08, 2015, 08:58:58 am »

Everybody is on va tech. From past experience, when everybody is going the same way, it has always gone the other way.

Va tech is 1-5 ats in the last 6 at home.

I'm going Ohio state -14 small

Good call on the Hogville Curse!

That dropped me to 2-3 for -0.5 units for opening weekend. 
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husker71

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8458 on: September 08, 2015, 09:02:26 am »

I have never bet on/against the hogs(since I moved here and became a fan) and never will   Bad Karma in my book    if I ever need to cash a bet that bad I will stop betting   and I have been betting for about 48 years
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8459 on: September 08, 2015, 12:56:07 pm »

i like Cal -11 vst San Diego State
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8460 on: September 08, 2015, 01:30:42 pm »

I have never bet on/against the hogs(since I moved here and became a fan) and never will   Bad Karma in my book    if I ever need to cash a bet that bad I will stop betting   and I have been betting for about 48 years

Betting for the hogs with BB has been good the past few years.

Didn't post anything but went 2-2 this weekend with zero research. Dumb.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8461 on: September 08, 2015, 01:39:46 pm »

My philosophy on betting on/against the Hogs is it's the team I know most about. I wouldn't play them for action but when I do play them it's because I have a pretty spot on hunch that turns a profit many times before it will not.  In my opinion, you aren't doing it right if you aren't betting on/against the team you know most about. If you happen to be a fan of that team, it's important to stay objective or the entire point is moot. Now with that being said, I will not normally bet against us unless we're talking 52-0 Bama.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8462 on: September 08, 2015, 01:54:40 pm »

I bet against the hogs vs bama in 2008 and 2012. Pretty much the only time I can remember.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8463 on: September 08, 2015, 02:21:31 pm »

Off of memory alone I think I went 4-2 on the hogs last year. 

Auburn L
TTech W
NIu     W
UGA    L
Bama    W 
And Texas W

Before last year I would have never touched Arkansas football.  Bielema will cover more than he doesn't.  I think we were 9-3 last year ATS or something?
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Supermark101

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8464 on: September 08, 2015, 03:18:07 pm »

Why is Missouri at Ark St. only at -10 1/2 with a money line of -427? Even @ASU, it seems like stealing money.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8465 on: September 08, 2015, 03:24:31 pm »

I think it's an unsure line.  You have an sec team that defense is questionable going into a upper scale high school stadium to play someone that just got steam rolled by a top 25 team.  Mizzou should cover this easily but I think the Mizzou team on the road might be sleeping and hence the low line, I guess?  I think it actually opened at liek -13 or -12 and has been bet down to -10.5, which is even more confusing. 

If it's sitting at -10.5 come friday or saturday, I'll probably take a flyer.

Just put in big on Arkansas -21 -120. 
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Surfing8

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8466 on: September 08, 2015, 04:58:34 pm »

Hogs were one of the hottest teams ATS in college football last year.

I think we snuck up on a lot of the betting public last year, and some of the game-time lines we had reflected that.

Unfortunately for betting purposes I think we're more of a known commodity this year.  Regardless of our W/L record, I don't think we'll have as good of an ATS record.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8467 on: September 08, 2015, 05:57:39 pm »

I think we snuck up on a lot of the betting public last year, and some of the game-time lines we had reflected that.

Unfortunately for betting purposes I think we're more of a known commodity this year.  Regardless of our W/L record, I don't think we'll have as good of an ATS record.

Well, you will also have to factor in we go to Bama and they look just as good as ever, so the betting public will probably push that line up if it's not already a double digit.  We go to Ole Miss and for whatever reason the world loves them right now, so they will have a 4-7 point swing for being home team over last year.  The same things can be said for tenner as well, so I think we will see just as good of "chances" but then again, it all comes down to play on the field anyways. 
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8468 on: September 09, 2015, 04:37:35 pm »

I'm playing way too many games this weekend but am keeping it at 1/2 unit each while I experiment a bit more.  On the first five picks, I'm tailing a guy who went 9-1 ATS last week.  The next six picks are spreadsheet picks based on a few system combinations that did well last week.

Tail picks
Georgia -19.5
A&M -30
OK pk
Ark -22
MO -10.5

Spreadsheet picks
Syr -4.5
Ga Tech -28.5
VA +12.5
MD -7.5
Rutg -2
N. Mex -3.5

Added one more tail pick for 1/2 unit:
FL -21
« Last Edit: September 10, 2015, 09:02:51 am by DadVader1 »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8469 on: September 10, 2015, 11:57:00 am »

No Bell, Bryant, or Pouncey for Steelers tonight.

I'm probably stupid, but Steelers +7 / 1 unit.  Also Steelers 100.00 to Win 250.00
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8470 on: September 10, 2015, 12:09:32 pm »

No Bell, Bryant, or Pouncey for Steelers tonight.

I'm probably stupid, but Steelers +7 / 1 unit.  Also Steelers 100.00 to Win 250.00

I can't help but think about last years thursday night football catastrophes.  Home teams or favorites covered every game I believe BIG. 

I think the real line should be around -10 but then everyone would be on the steelers and the line makers don't want that. 

I am think about parlaying Patriots ML and Cubs Ml tonight.
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Sanctified Swine

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8471 on: September 10, 2015, 04:09:58 pm »

4-1 on my big five plays of the week last week

my big 5 this week..

Rutgers -3.5 over wash st.
Utah  - 12 over Utah St.
UCONN -7 over Army
New Mexico - 3.5 over Tulsa
UTSA +17 over Kansas St.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8472 on: September 10, 2015, 04:16:40 pm »

I can't help but think about last years thursday night football catastrophes.  Home teams or favorites covered every game I believe BIG. 

I think the real line should be around -10 but then everyone would be on the steelers and the line makers don't want that. 

I am think about parlaying Patriots ML and Cubs Ml tonight.

looks like weather could be a factor tonight. Heavy rains and lightning possible. Chance is 70%+
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8473 on: September 10, 2015, 04:19:55 pm »

I'm taking La Tech -2 tonight.
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dffhogs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8474 on: September 10, 2015, 04:22:57 pm »

looks like weather could be a factor tonight. Heavy rains and lightning possible. Chance is 70%+
Was liking the over at 51 until I saw the weather. Still may take it.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8475 on: September 10, 2015, 04:50:57 pm »

Taking La Tech, 5 units.

Think there is a bit of overreaction to the Vandy game.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8476 on: September 10, 2015, 05:15:20 pm »

Was liking the over at 51 until I saw the weather. Still may take it.

I generally favor the over more in a sloppy weather game
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mckinneyhog5

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8477 on: September 10, 2015, 05:18:01 pm »

Taking La Tech, 5 units.

Think there is a bit of overreaction to the Vandy game.
WKU opened at -3.... Now LAtech is -2 1/2.  Going with WKU at home in a shoot out.  Also taking the over at 63.
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dffhogs

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8478 on: September 10, 2015, 05:47:56 pm »

I generally favor the over more in a sloppy weather game

I agree. I took the over.

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8479 on: September 10, 2015, 06:07:59 pm »

For the weekend.

Minnesota -5 (moved down from -7 for me)  1 unit
Rutgers -3.5 (moved up from -2 against me)  1 unit
OU -1 (it's moved up to -2 so I'm glad I got on it early this week)   2 units

I'm also leaning Clemson, but it's moved from -17 to -19.5 in the past 2 days so I'm not too sure. I'll probably lay a 1/2 unit on it at the least. All favs, but hey, that's the way it goes sometimes.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2015, 07:21:23 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8480 on: September 10, 2015, 07:14:42 pm »

Pats -7
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8481 on: September 10, 2015, 08:54:31 pm »

It's still way too early to know how they'll do this season, but the power ranking systems got off to a very good start with at least 10 of them hitting at or above 60% ats.  I'm sure that number will shrink dramatically, but hopefully it's a good sign for the season. 
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8482 on: September 10, 2015, 09:13:06 pm »

I like ND-11.5
UTSA +17.5
SMU-4.5
Mich st-4

Anyone touching the SCarolina/UK game or Vandy/UGA game?  I like UGA as Vandy is still horrible on offense.  Not sure about UK/SC.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8483 on: September 10, 2015, 10:01:43 pm »

It's still way too early to know how they'll do this season, but the power ranking systems got off to a very good start with at least 10 of them hitting at or above 60% ats.  I'm sure that number will shrink dramatically, but hopefully it's a good sign for the season. 

Vader, glad to see the sheets coming out hot. Always tend to like it's picks and look forward to em.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8484 on: September 10, 2015, 10:05:08 pm »

I like ND-11.5
UTSA +17.5
SMU-4.5
Mich st-4

Anyone touching the SCarolina/UK game or Vandy/UGA game?  I like UGA as Vandy is still horrible on offense.  Not sure about UK/SC.

That SC/UK line is in no man's land. Who knows.
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Fort Dweller

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8485 on: September 10, 2015, 10:06:34 pm »

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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8486 on: September 10, 2015, 11:15:32 pm »

Hammered this line

Me too, *** push.  I should have bought a .5!!!

Someone asked, yes I'm all over the UGA line
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8487 on: September 10, 2015, 11:49:53 pm »

Garbage push
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8488 on: September 11, 2015, 12:11:26 pm »

Garbage push

That was so bad!  Not only because there were only 2 seconds left, but also because of the way it happened.  DB was in the perfect position to intercept it or at least tip it away and he somehow missed it completely.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8489 on: September 11, 2015, 03:45:08 pm »

Hogs -21 1 unit
Georgia -20.5 2 units
TAMU -30 1 unit

See a pattern here?

Why is Clemson only -19 at home against App St?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8490 on: September 11, 2015, 04:02:54 pm »

Hogs -21 1 unit
Georgia -20.5 2 units
TAMU -30 1 unit

See a pattern here?

Why is Clemson only -19 at home against App St?

App St. has 7 straight W's dating back to last season, that may have something to do with it but I agree, the line sticks out as low.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8491 on: September 11, 2015, 05:20:46 pm »

FAU +18
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8492 on: September 11, 2015, 07:28:15 pm »

Saturday plays:

Co St +5
SMU -5.5
UTEP +20
Ms St +4
UGA -21

5-6 YTD
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8493 on: September 12, 2015, 12:16:35 am »

WKU opened at -3.... Now LAtech is -2 1/2.  Going with WKU at home in a shoot out.  Also taking the over at 63.
Hell of a call on that one...Hopefully i can make some better picks this weekend.

Have not bet yet but so far think I'm going:

ND -12; 5*
Mizzou -10.5; 5*
Nevada +11.5; 4*
Cincinnati -6.5; 4*
Hogs -21; 3*

Also like Georgia and Ole Miss to cover but prob will not bet. Heard on the radio today the hottest bet in Vegas coming in today on college football was OU over Tennessee. Lopsided action on OU. That will be a very interesting game. I hate Bob Stoops so I'll be rooting for the Vols in that one.
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hogsanity

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8494 on: September 12, 2015, 12:28:34 am »

Hell of a call on that one...Hopefully i can make some better picks this weekend.

Have not bet yet but so far think I'm going:

ND -12; 5*
Mizzou -10.5; 5*
Nevada +11.5; 4*
Cincinnati -6.5; 4*
Hogs -21; 3*

Also like Georgia and Ole Miss to cover but prob will not bet. Heard on the radio today the hottest bet in Vegas coming in today on college football was OU over Tennessee. Lopsided action on OU. That will be a very interesting game. I hate Bob Stoops so I'll be rooting for the Vols in that one.

got mizzu clemson hogs ga tomorrow. Had Miami -18 tonight and also had them over 37. So good start to the weekend.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8495 on: September 12, 2015, 01:02:01 am »

got mizzu clemson hogs ga tomorrow. Had Miami -18 tonight and also had them over 37. So good start to the weekend.
I had Miami tonight as well bet them heavy. Was cussing them in 1st half something awful...then they came out in 2nd half and dominated.

What is your take on the Clemson/App St by chance? That's the only morning game looks to me worth betting...but Clemson -19 looks like one of those too good to be true...trap bets to me. Any insight?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8496 on: September 12, 2015, 09:34:56 am »

Tennessee-1

Virginia +13
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8497 on: September 12, 2015, 11:17:07 am »

Added TN +2

Us UGA backers are against some smart money. Line just nosedived to 18.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8498 on: September 12, 2015, 11:38:16 am »

I decided against my Clemson play, so only the 3 picks this weekend.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8499 on: September 12, 2015, 11:41:56 am »

I wouldn't be surprised to see Oklahoma beat Tennessee by 7 to 10 points.
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