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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340049 times)

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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8350 on: August 09, 2015, 04:26:05 pm »


Thanks. Had just heard that credit card companies blocked a lot of these deposits. Was looking at bovada and some of the reviews stated difficulty in cc deposits.

Bovada is another popular one I know nothing about.  Most use a CC processor that is not in the united states, so you card can block the "foreign" transaction.  One way around that is before you make a deposit call the card company and have them lift the block.  I am sure if you talk to the customer service department at which ever book they can give you a country that the processor is and just tell the card company to allow transactions from that country.  I've had to do this when traveling out of the country. 
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sooiepig_12

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8351 on: August 11, 2015, 12:51:12 am »

China Super League soccer tomorrow.  Shanghai vs. Greentown what y'all think?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8352 on: August 11, 2015, 06:58:29 am »

China Super League soccer tomorrow.  Shanghai vs. Greentown what y'all think?

Ask your mom.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8353 on: August 11, 2015, 07:42:25 am »

China Super League soccer tomorrow.  Shanghai vs. Greentown what y'all think?

That would be gambling. I can't condone such behavior
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8354 on: August 12, 2015, 12:43:41 pm »

Anyone betting any futures?  Specifically, which teams are the value plays to win NCAA Championship and Super Bowl?
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8355 on: August 12, 2015, 12:55:06 pm »

NCAA Futures - I see value in Stanford 40/1, Oklahoma 35/1.  Both teams return some key starters, have a veteran quarterback, favorable schedules, and in Stanfords game a Championship game in their backyard.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8356 on: August 12, 2015, 01:47:54 pm »

NCAA Futures - I see value in Stanford 40/1, Oklahoma 35/1.  Both teams return some key starters, have a veteran quarterback, favorable schedules, and in Stanfords game a Championship game in their backyard.

Stanford was my value pick as well!  Good thinking!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8357 on: August 12, 2015, 03:43:14 pm »

I like Stanford for value too. My favorite preseason bet is Hogs o8 wins.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8358 on: August 13, 2015, 06:41:52 am »

Steelers 25/1 to win it all.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8359 on: August 13, 2015, 08:22:00 am »

Steelers 25/1 to win it all.

And this is my Super Bowl winner value bet!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8360 on: August 13, 2015, 08:45:19 am »

this thread again? damnit.

Told myself I was out of the game this year...
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8361 on: August 13, 2015, 09:14:49 am »

this thread again? damnit.

Told myself I was out of the game this year...

Lol, we'll be seeing ya...
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8362 on: August 13, 2015, 10:14:57 am »

Ha!  Glad to see this thread pop back up to the front page.  I got married over the summer so will have less time to play with spreadsheets.  Hopefully, I have things sufficiently automated to be able to stay up-to-date despite having a more packed schedule.  The power rating systems just flat sucked ATS last season.  Here's hoping that that was a rare occurrence and that they get things dialed in better this season. 
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8363 on: August 13, 2015, 04:32:26 pm »

this thread again? damnit.

Told myself I was out of the game this year...

Ugh oh. I didn't feed a bad habit for you did I?  Get you set up?
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8364 on: August 13, 2015, 05:06:07 pm »

Ugh oh. I didn't feed a bad habit for you did I?  Get you set up?

I never set it all up, because it was in the offseason. I may contact him again soon though if this itch doesn't go away!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8365 on: August 15, 2015, 09:22:49 am »

Played a little today.

Texans -3 / 1 unit
Detroit tigers 69.00 to win 100.00
Mets -1.5   57.00 to win 100.00
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8366 on: September 02, 2015, 12:51:50 pm »

Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!
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hogcard1964

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8367 on: September 02, 2015, 12:53:31 pm »

Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

New blood at Michigan.  The Harbaugh factor may work until he's run out of this job in two to three years.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8368 on: September 02, 2015, 12:57:30 pm »

Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

I like Utah tomorrow, along with UTSA and WKU.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8369 on: September 02, 2015, 01:00:16 pm »

Well, I am trying to keep the thread alive. 

How in the world is the Utah/Michigan game only a -5 Utah spread!  Something isn't right but I sure might take Utah tomorrow along with TCU.  Football season is almost here!

As of right this second, I'm thinking I'm going to bet the shiz out of Utah.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8370 on: September 02, 2015, 01:05:50 pm »

I like Utah tomorrow, along with UTSA and WKU.

The WKU line movement is scaring me off. 

I really want to drop a few on utah, but just something about my memory from last year with -4 and -5 lines and I can't remember what I told myself.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8371 on: September 02, 2015, 01:21:48 pm »

The WKU line movement is scaring me off. 

I really want to drop a few on utah, but just something about my memory from last year with -4 and -5 lines and I can't remember what I told myself.

I'm thinking the Utah line is low to bait the public on a historic power with a new, highly respected coach. That's just my guess but Utah is also returning a slew of talent that went into The Bighouse last year and won convincingly.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8372 on: September 02, 2015, 03:56:49 pm »

I actually like Michigan in that game, but won't bet on it. I like to call it the Houston Nutt effect. I think Harbaugh has those guys playing above their heads for the first few games at least.

For tomorrow I like Duke -7 v Tulane, and Ohio -7 v Idaho.

For the weekend I like Az St +3.5 and ND -10 vs Texas.

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8373 on: September 02, 2015, 04:36:49 pm »

I actually like Michigan in that game, but won't bet on it. I like to call it the Houston Nutt effect. I think Harbaugh has those guys playing above their heads for the first few games at least.

For tomorrow I like Duke -7 v Tulane, and Ohio -7 v Idaho.

For the weekend I like Az St +3.5 and ND -10 vs Texas.



I'm with you on ND, favorite play of week 1. Be careful with Duke, massive reverse line movement on that game. Line dropped from 11 to 7 with about 2/3 bets coming in on Duke.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8374 on: September 02, 2015, 06:59:51 pm »

Good to see will back in the fold.
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ChicoHog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8375 on: September 02, 2015, 10:40:19 pm »

Ok,  I'm in boys.  Put 2 units on WKU vs Vandy, 2 units on the under ND/Texas.  I don't see the offensive inept Longhorns scoring much against the strong Irish D.  I'm thinking hard about Utah, Minnesota +17 and Ohio. 

edit:  Just did 3 team parlay on utah-5, Minnesota +17 and Ohio -7. 
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8376 on: September 02, 2015, 10:48:02 pm »

I'm with you on ND, favorite play of week 1. Be careful with Duke, massive reverse line movement on that game. Line dropped from 11 to 7 with about 2/3 bets coming in on Duke.

If the line went from -11 to -7 it means money came in on Tulane, and I like betting against public money line movement
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hawgmasta

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8377 on: September 02, 2015, 11:57:05 pm »

I would love to start this back up and participate this year. I'm in two fantasy football leagues and will be playing units in football a lot hopefully. I have way more time at home this season so will be playing and studying all I can.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8378 on: September 03, 2015, 08:18:42 am »

If the line went from -11 to -7 it means money came in on Tulane, and I like betting against public money line movement

Sharp money moved the line. You have around 65% (depending on where you look) of the bets, not money, come in on Duke.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8379 on: September 03, 2015, 09:16:32 am »

Went 1/2 unit each on:

Tenn -20.5
Utah -4.5
TCU -16.5

Looking forward to the new season!
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OnYourToes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8380 on: September 03, 2015, 10:40:38 am »

edit:  Just did 3 team parlay on utah-5, Minnesota +17 and Ohio -7. 

Validation, I was holding out for a sign to take Minn and now I'm all over it.
Utah seems safe

I agree with the Duke movement, scared me off.

I'm taking ND +10 over Texas as well

Great to be back in the fold this season!
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8381 on: September 03, 2015, 11:06:35 am »

I'm with you on ND, favorite play of week 1. Be careful with Duke, massive reverse line movement on that game. Line dropped from 11 to 7 with about 2/3 bets coming in on Duke.

I paid real close attention to RLM for a couple of years, but I couldn't find a real system, or trend to follow, so now I just go with my gut.

Good to see will back in the fold.

Thanks man, I'll be in sporadically, but hopefully once a week at least. School is still taking up the most part of my time.

Sharp money moved the line. You have around 65% (depending on where you look) of the bets, not money, come in on Duke.

This is where I get lost when trying to understand how RLM affects the lines or peoples bets. For example, if 65% of the bets come in on Duke totaling $100k, but the 35% of the Tulane bets total $250k, then the money on Tulane moved the line, even though the majority of the bets came in for Duke. I couldn't track it as beneficial or derogatory, so I just stop paying attention for the most part.

I'm also leaning heavily on Washington +12.5 tomorrow. I saw Chris Peterson beat too many teams "better than his" with plenty of time to plan. Georgia a few years ago and Oklahoma in the bowl game come to mind immediately. 

I'm starting out this year with $1k in my fictional sportsbook account, and unless otherwise noted, all bets will be 10% of the beginning balance of the week. I.E. all the bets this week so far will be $100.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8382 on: September 03, 2015, 11:23:19 am »

I paid real close attention to RLM for a couple of years, but I couldn't find a real system, or trend to follow, so now I just go with my gut.

Hey man, going with your gut is always the best option in my opinion.

This is where I get lost when trying to understand how RLM affects the lines or peoples bets. For example, if 65% of the bets come in on Duke totaling $100k, but the 35% of the Tulane bets total $250k, then the money on Tulane moved the line, even though the majority of the bets came in for Duke. I couldn't track it as beneficial or derogatory, so I just stop paying attention for the most part.

The normal gist or assumption behind RLM is that the wise guys are against the public and that's who you want to side with, the wise guys.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8383 on: September 03, 2015, 11:27:19 am »

Hey man, going with your gut is always the best option in my opinion.

The normal gist or assumption behind RLM is that the wise guys are against the public and that's who you want to side with, the wise guys.


Yes, but you can also find lines that the sportsbooks will move to get the public money on one side.  They know how to move lines to get people to jump on a side when they need money on that side.  When this happens it is best to go against the line move. 

I was really hoping to see money bring the UTAH line down to the 3's today, and it got real close at -4 but I waited and now it's blown all the way up +6.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8384 on: September 03, 2015, 04:05:55 pm »

South Carolina -2
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8385 on: September 03, 2015, 05:16:23 pm »

Minimum wagers on the following:

Tulane +7
UTSA +32
Utah -5
WKU -2.5
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8386 on: September 03, 2015, 05:45:47 pm »

Washington was up to +13.5 on sportsbook so I went ahead and added it.

I also buy the hook on all bets over 3.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8387 on: September 03, 2015, 06:09:05 pm »

Went all chalk tonight.
SC - 1
Utah -5
Freaking Frogs -16

All one unit plays
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8388 on: September 03, 2015, 10:38:40 pm »

The Frogs not looking like the #2 team in the nation against a bottom feeder of the bottom feeding power 5 conference... Not liking this for my (and most everyone's) bet slip
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8389 on: September 03, 2015, 10:42:15 pm »

My plays this week so far are:

Ohio -7 W
Minnesota +16.5 W
No Il/UNLV Under 62 L
Louisville +10.5 W
Tennessee -20.5 W
Boise -13 L

Week 1 - 4-2 YTD 4-2
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 12:08:45 pm by yraciv »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8390 on: September 03, 2015, 10:47:55 pm »

My plays this week so far are:

Ohio -7
Minnesota +16.5
No Il/UNLV Under 62
Louisville +10.5
Tennessee -20.5

Looking at LOU as well
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8391 on: September 03, 2015, 11:06:16 pm »

The Frogs not looking like the #2 team in the nation against a bottom feeder of the bottom feeding power 5 conference... Not liking this for my (and most everyone's) bet slip

They sure aren't looking very good.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8392 on: September 03, 2015, 11:27:10 pm »

The Frogs not looking like the #2 team in the nation against a bottom feeder of the bottom feeding power 5 conference... Not liking this for my (and most everyone's) bet slip
After the 3rd or 4th time of betting against Minnesota last year I decided I was done. They are a pesky team that always seem to cover the spread.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8393 on: September 04, 2015, 07:40:24 am »

As of right this second, I'm thinking I'm going to bet the shiz out of Utah.

Boom!  $3 richer!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8394 on: September 04, 2015, 08:14:53 am »

Anyone have leans for tonight? Looking at Boise and Michigan St.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8395 on: September 04, 2015, 08:23:26 am »

Went 2 of 3 last night.  I was scared of that Frogs game, but bet it anyway. My mistake.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8396 on: September 04, 2015, 08:37:43 am »

Leaning toward Baylor, and Boise tonight. 

Scares me I'm not seeing many dogs I like.
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MS_HogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8397 on: September 04, 2015, 08:56:48 am »

Washington was up to +13.5 on sportsbook so I went ahead and added it.

I also buy the hook on all bets over 3.

What does it mean to buy a hook?
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8398 on: September 04, 2015, 09:03:49 am »

Minimum wagers on the following:

Tulane +7
UTSA +32
Utah -5
WKU -2.5

Good picking there.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #8399 on: September 04, 2015, 09:18:12 am »

What does it mean to buy a hook?

Half point. If it's -3.5 you spend 10% extra usually to get it at -3
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