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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 327201 times)

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7700 on: October 15, 2014, 07:26:37 am »

It would also help if id just lay off the steelers for the rest of the year


Haaaa!
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7701 on: October 15, 2014, 08:17:05 am »

Heard that. I'm 0-4 in betting the steelers this year. I've bet their games both ways, I've picked them and picked against them. Every decision was the wrong one.

Todd Haley sucks, no offense Jeff.  I love tomlin, but he's gonna have to kick Haley to the curb
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7702 on: October 15, 2014, 08:17:40 am »


Haaaa!

I think steelers have netted be -2 dimes this year!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7703 on: October 15, 2014, 08:44:26 am »

it's scary but I am clearing more in baseball right now than football. I keep having great mornings on Saturdays then get hammered in the evening games.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7704 on: October 15, 2014, 08:45:20 am »

After NFL play past weekend

College 31-19-2 on 5* plays and up

+12110.00. That includes smaller bets just didn't break all down yet

Pros
Decent weekend +1450.00

12-11
-1570.00

YTD
+10540.00


Gonna try and tally after every week to save work down the rd at years end.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7705 on: October 15, 2014, 08:48:01 am »

Todd Haley sucks, no offense Jeff.  I love tomlin, but he's gonna have to kick Haley to the curb

None taken. I didn't want Haley and still don't.
I think he married into the Rooney family or something.

I hope they allow Tomlin to get rid of him after the season.

I also like Tomlin and don't think he's the problem.

Those dang TE screen passes are killing drives.

The reverse call against Tampa on 1st and 10 from their own 20 was almost as baffling as a few of the plays hogs have called.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7706 on: October 15, 2014, 04:01:23 pm »

So far, this week, I've done 2 units each on:

TX A&M +11.5
Fresno +17
Wash +21
Cincy -14 (hook)
Baylor -8.5
UCLA -7
Kansas + 14 (hook)

The trend that is 26-0 going into this week likes Minn -12.5, Wash +21, TCU -8.5, and Kansas +14.  I may take TCU later in the week, depending on what news becomes available about the qb's wrist.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7707 on: October 15, 2014, 06:47:58 pm »

So far, this week, I've done 2 units each on:

TX A&M +11.5
Fresno +17
Wash +21
Cincy -14 (hook)
Baylor -8.5
UCLA -7
Kansas + 14 (hook)

The trend that is 26-0 going into this week likes Minn -12.5, Wash +21, TCU -8.5, and Kansas +14.  I may take TCU later in the week, depending on what news becomes available about the qb's wrist.

Where is this trend at to be viewed?   Free?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7708 on: October 15, 2014, 07:17:07 pm »

It's not available; it's a homemade concoction.  I probably run over a million "what if" scenarios each week and try all kinds of different filters and combinations.  It isn't statistically sound by any stretch of the imagination, but I figure if it has hit at 26-0 so far, there is a good chance that it will continue to hit well above 50% moving forward.  Last year, late in the season, I found one trend that had hit over 90% with over 50 occurrences.  With the additional "programming for dummies" that I picked up late last season, I'm able to run a LOT more scenarios this year so am hoping to find one or two of those super trends a bit earlier this year. 
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7709 on: October 15, 2014, 11:16:05 pm »

With the new folks in the thread, I probably should have included a disclaimer earlier.  This is my 5th year doing this and my third year playing with trends.  I've come out well ahead 4 out of 5 years (and all three years after I started playing with trends).  I'm still very much a beginner, my trends are NOT "real," professional, statistically supportable ones, I lack the handicapping talents of folks like like Jeff, Sir, Widespread, and others, and you'll do MUCH better tailing Jeff's dime plays.  Last year, I hit at around 64% on the year.  This year is a bit more unpredictable, and the rating systems are doing much worse.  Still, I'm pretty much on track where I was last year, largely b/c I learned to keep my plays small for the first few weeks and can run so many more "what if" scenarios.   

Don't put too much weight on any one trend that I post.  You might notice that I've only played two of the teams in the 26-0 trend.  For week 8, I have probably 20+ trends that are hitting at least 15-0.  That's too small of a sample size to get too excited about any one in particular, but if the same team pops up in several promising trends, I like my chances of staying ahead of the juice.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7710 on: October 15, 2014, 11:24:44 pm »

With the new folks in the thread, I probably should have included a disclaimer earlier.  This is my 5th year doing this and my third year playing with trends.  I've come out well ahead 4 out of 5 years (and all three years after I started playing with trends).  I'm still very much a beginner, my trends are NOT "real," professional, statistically supportable ones, I lack the handicapping talents of folks like like Jeff, Sir, Widespread, and others, and you'll do MUCH better tailing Jeff's dime plays.  Last year, I hit at around 64% on the year.  This year is a bit more unpredictable, and the rating systems are doing much worse.  Still, I'm pretty much on track where I was last year, largely b/c I learned to keep my plays small for the first few weeks and can run so many more "what if" scenarios.   

Don't put too much weight on any one trend that I post.  You might notice that I've only played two of the teams in the 26-0 trend.  For week 8, I have probably 20+ trends that are hitting at least 15-0.  That's too small of a sample size to get too excited about any one in particular, but if the same team pops up in several promising trends, I like my chances of staying ahead of the juice.


You are giving me too much credit homie. Nobody can ever make money following me unless they use the same bankroll management.  Oh and Jeff's plays plus this. That plus this will effff up your margins every time!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7711 on: October 15, 2014, 11:25:57 pm »

Where is this trend at to be viewed?   Free?

Yeah! Years in this thread
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7712 on: October 15, 2014, 11:38:11 pm »

Yeah, I kinda skipped the whole bankroll management thing (which accounted for my losing season before you guys taught me that).  As your bankroll has grown, I've learned that one of your dime plays THIS year isn't the same as a dime play in the past (which means that you're doing the whole bankroll management thing VERY well).  These days, I don't send texts to my friends about our "ringer's" plays, unless you go over a dime :)  Regardless, THANK YOU for helping us pad our records and bankrolls!  I just hope that my spreadsheet stuff is marginally helpful as you filter stuff down to your final cut. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7713 on: October 16, 2014, 08:10:18 am »

With the new folks in the thread, I probably should have included a disclaimer earlier.  This is my 5th year doing this and my third year playing with trends.  I've come out well ahead 4 out of 5 years (and all three years after I started playing with trends).  I'm still very much a beginner, my trends are NOT "real," professional, statistically supportable ones, I lack the handicapping talents of folks like like Jeff, Sir, Widespread, and others, and you'll do MUCH better tailing Jeff's dime plays.  Last year, I hit at around 64% on the year.  This year is a bit more unpredictable, and the rating systems are doing much worse.  Still, I'm pretty much on track where I was last year, largely b/c I learned to keep my plays small for the first few weeks and can run so many more "what if" scenarios.   

Don't put too much weight on any one trend that I post.  You might notice that I've only played two of the teams in the 26-0 trend.  For week 8, I have probably 20+ trends that are hitting at least 15-0.  That's too small of a sample size to get too excited about any one in particular, but if the same team pops up in several promising trends, I like my chances of staying ahead of the juice.

Oh it is.  I know a couple guys that are almost exclusively trend type betters.  They have spread sheets up the ying yang.  They both make money every year. They don't make a lot because they hit at about 55% no matter the size of the bet.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7714 on: October 16, 2014, 12:39:56 pm »

tonight:
I like Va Tech -2 @ Pitt (sorry jeff) 2 units

Any thoughts on pats -10 at home vs Jets?
Jets are horrible but just read that brady is 6-0 on Thursday games, but only 2-6 at the spread.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7715 on: October 16, 2014, 01:34:37 pm »

tonight:
I like Va Tech -2 @ Pitt (sorry jeff) 2 units

Any thoughts on pats -10 at home vs Jets?
Jets are horrible but just read that brady is 6-0 on Thursday games, but only 2-6 at the spread.

Money line bet?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7716 on: October 16, 2014, 01:47:04 pm »

tonight:
I like Va Tech -2 @ Pitt (sorry jeff) 2 units

Any thoughts on pats -10 at home vs Jets?
Jets are horrible but just read that brady is 6-0 on Thursday games, but only 2-6 at the spread.

I don't blame ya. Pitt underachieving big time this year. If I was gonna bet it I would take Va Tech also.

Slight lean for me toward Jets + tonight, but don't think I'm gonna play it.

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7717 on: October 16, 2014, 02:10:43 pm »

The spreadsheets like Va Tech and Utah quite a bit tonight.  Both of those came close to making my final cut.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7718 on: October 16, 2014, 02:54:56 pm »

I'm leaning VA Tech too, but will probably stay away. Don't like to bet road teams on Thursday nights. Really like Temple +7.5 tomorrow night.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7719 on: October 16, 2014, 03:59:36 pm »

The sheets show a slight lean toward Temple, but it didn't show up in enough categories to make my preliminary cut.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7720 on: October 16, 2014, 06:52:24 pm »

added pats -10 2units
card +135 2units
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7721 on: October 16, 2014, 10:37:13 pm »

Here's what I have NCAA wise from tonight through Saturday...good luck everyone!

Virginia Tech vs. Pitt u45, NCAAF....5 unit bet

Utah -2.5 -110, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Baylor -7 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF....3 unit bet

Georgia Tech -2.0 -115, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Boise State -17.0 -115, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Clemson vs. Boston College u45 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....5 unit bet

Tulane vs. Central Florida u45 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....3 unit bet

Missouri vs. Florida u48 NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Virginia vs. Duke u51½ -110, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Washington vs. Oregon o64 -120 (buy ½ pt), NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Boston College +5.0 -110, NCAAF.....2 unit bet

Added:

Iowa +5.0 -115, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Mizzou +6.0 -115, NCAAF....2 unit bet

Kentucky +10.5 -110, NCAAF....2 unit bet

« Last Edit: October 18, 2014, 09:33:13 am by jkstock04 »
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7722 on: October 17, 2014, 07:20:23 am »

0-2 last night. thank goodness i didnt take the Vtech game too. -4 units.
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Tai_Mai_Shu

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7723 on: October 17, 2014, 10:41:20 am »

Michigan State -15 1/2 - Indiana just lost their QB for the year. I put down 2u
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7724 on: October 17, 2014, 11:18:49 am »

I found a few trends that were hitting close to 80% with close to 50 occurrences and a few more that had hit at 19-0 & 18-0.  They made me feel a bit better about my final cut, so I went back and added one more unit to most of my plays.  Here's what I've done so far:

TX A&M +11.5  2 units (added TX A&M +13.5 1 unit)
Fresno +17  3 units
Wash +21 2 units (added Wash +22 1 unit)
Cincy -14 (hook) 2 units (added Cincy -13.5 1 unit)
Baylor -8.5 2 units (addeded Bay -9 1 unit)
UCLA -7 2 units
Kansas + 14 (hook) 2 units

I may add another unit to UCLA.  The line had moved more than I expected on that one, so I'll have to reassess.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7725 on: October 17, 2014, 12:24:55 pm »

All I've done so far is Washington +20.5 and MIZ +6. Still looking at BC +5, So. Miss +9.5, Akron -3, and UMASS -14. Also bet Temple +8 for tonight. I try to stay away from weekday action but really like Temple here. They are a much improved team from last year with strong QB play.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7726 on: October 17, 2014, 12:44:43 pm »

All I've done so far is Washington +20.5 and MIZ +6. Still looking at BC +5, So. Miss +9.5, Akron -3, and UMASS -14. Also bet Temple +8 for tonight. I try to stay away from weekday action but really like Temple here. They are a much improved team from last year with strong QB play.
I was strongly thinking of adding mizzou +6 to my ticket as well....but I despise Florida so there may be some bias coming through to influence me!
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Fort Dweller

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7727 on: October 17, 2014, 12:46:24 pm »

Took the Jets last night.  Looking at 2 pro's and 2 Joe's for the weekend:  Seattle -7.5 and Arizona -4  Marshall -22 and Baylor -7.5
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7728 on: October 17, 2014, 01:23:59 pm »

Still looking at BC +5, So. Miss +9.5, Akron -3, and UMASS -14. Also bet Temple +8 for tonight. I try to stay away from weekday action but really like Temple here. They are a much improved team from last year with strong QB play.

The sheets show leans toward Akron and Temple but show a lean for E. Mich in the UMass game.  One of the nice Temple trends was a QB comparison that is 10-0.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7729 on: October 17, 2014, 01:30:30 pm »

I'm on Temple and boise for 2units each.

Do not see Fresno being competitive on the blue field.
RE: Temple...Houston is playing a receiver at QB now, correct?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7730 on: October 17, 2014, 01:46:14 pm »

Yes, Ward (5'11", 165 lbs) replaced a struggling O'Korn in the UCF game and had his first start last week against Memphis, going 17/28 for 188, 1 TD and 1 INT and had 96 yds rushing.   
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7731 on: October 17, 2014, 03:04:35 pm »

The sheets show leans toward Akron and Temple but show a lean for E. Mich in the UMass game.  One of the nice Temple trends was a QB comparison that is 10-0.

I like that QB trend, thank Vader.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7732 on: October 17, 2014, 03:13:48 pm »

OK, so now my Saturday card is finalized and looks like this:

MIZ +6
Washington +20.5
BC +5
So. Miss +9.5
Minny -13.5
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7733 on: October 17, 2014, 04:42:18 pm »

I absolutely hate this weeks college card.

Purdue +14 / 3 units
WV +8 / 3 units
Georgia -3 / dime play
Washington +20.5 / 5 units
OU -7 / 5 units
Vols +17 / 5 units
Okie st +10 / 5 units
Nebraska -6.5 / dime play




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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7734 on: October 17, 2014, 05:53:59 pm »

I absolutely hate this weeks college card.

Purdue +14 / 3 units
WV +8 / 3 units
Georgia -3 / dime play
Washington +20.5 / 5 units
OU -7 / 5 units
Vols +17 / 5 units
Okie st +10 / 5 units
Nebraska -6.5 / dime play



Hoping you stay cold on the Hogs! If we cover this one, we better be getting a win.  That Bama bet must have been tough on you all the way around.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7735 on: October 17, 2014, 05:58:53 pm »

Will update with my plays in the morning.

3 Units
Clemson -5 L
Notre Dame +9.5 W

2 Units
Duke -3 W
Colorado St -5 L
Wyoming +3 L
New Mexico St +6 L

1 Unit
Iowa St +11.5 W
Arkansas +3 L
FIU +21.5 L

YTD 37-33-1, +10 Units
« Last Edit: October 20, 2014, 12:09:37 pm by yraciv »
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Dropkick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7736 on: October 17, 2014, 07:19:05 pm »

2 units each on

Iowa +4.5
Duke -3
Tennessee +16.5
Hogs +3.5
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Fort Dweller

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7737 on: October 17, 2014, 07:21:21 pm »

I'm curious as to why most people are picking Tenner to cover.  Anyone interested in sharing their thought process?
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Dropkick

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7738 on: October 17, 2014, 07:29:10 pm »

I'm curious as to why most people are picking Tenner to cover.  Anyone interested in sharing their thought process?
Ole Miss is going to exhale sooner or later?
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7739 on: October 17, 2014, 08:07:17 pm »

I absolutely hate this weeks college card.

Purdue +14 / 3 units
WV +8 / 3 units
Georgia -3 / dime play
Washington +20.5 / 5 units
OU -7 / 5 units
Vols +17 / 5 units
Okie st +10 / 5 units
Nebraska -6.5 / dime play






This, w/ differences in odds....

UGA  -2.5
UT  +16.5
UW  +20.0
PU  +13.5
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7740 on: October 17, 2014, 08:21:56 pm »

I'm curious as to why most people are picking Tenner to cover.  Anyone interested in sharing their thought process?

Tenner is absolutely loaded with talent. Incredibly young.  Just like we think the hogs are building so are they. They are simply doing so with kids that came out of high school with a lot of stars by their name.  By the end of next year they will be the team to beat in the east. 

Ole miss may roll them, but I gotta take vols and points!
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7741 on: October 17, 2014, 08:27:33 pm »

Tenner is absolutely loaded with talent. Incredibly young.  Just like we think the hogs are building so are they. They are simply doing so with kids that came out of high school with a lot of stars by their name.  By the end of next year they will be the team to beat in the east. 

Ole miss may roll them, but I gotta take vols and points!


Preach on, Bro Jeff!
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Fort Dweller

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7742 on: October 17, 2014, 08:27:56 pm »

Tenner is absolutely loaded with talent. Incredibly young.  Just like we think the hogs are building so are they. They are simply doing so with kids that came out of high school with a lot of stars by their name.  By the end of next year they will be the team to beat in the east. 

Ole miss may roll them, but I gotta take vols and points!

Fair enough.  I took your first paragraph and applied it but with a negative connotation.  Young team that struggles to pass protect and run going up against that d-line.  With OM secondary being even better, that should hamper a ho-hum passing attack.

It's the first home game for OM since their victory over Bama and it's homecoming.

I appreciate the answer Jeff.  I'm learning and looking for any bits I can get.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7743 on: October 17, 2014, 08:30:06 pm »

Fair enough.  I took your first paragraph and applied it but with a negative connotation.  Young team that struggles to pass protect and run going up against that d-line.  With OM secondary being even better, that should hamper a ho-hum passing attack.

It's the first home game for OM since their victory over Bama and it's homecoming.

I appreciate the answer Jeff.  I'm learning and looking for any bits I can get.

Buddy it's very possible that I couldn't be more wrong if my butt was screwed into my shoulders :)
« Last Edit: October 17, 2014, 09:12:48 pm by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson »
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Fort Dweller

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7744 on: October 17, 2014, 08:40:22 pm »

Buddy it's very possible that I couldn't be more wrong if my but was screwed into my shoulders :)

Visual...hilarity
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7745 on: October 17, 2014, 09:11:04 pm »

The spreadsheets show a lean toward Ole Miss but not enough to make it stand out.  The rating systems are not doing as well as they did the last couple of years, and the dynamics have changed.  Historically (meaning the last 3 years), the rating systems have done better with favorites and with road teams.  This year, they're doing better with dogs and with road teams, but they're still under-performing for the most part.  It's been a weird but FUN season. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7746 on: October 17, 2014, 10:01:23 pm »

Jeff,

I'm curious as to why you're high on OU?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7747 on: October 17, 2014, 11:59:43 pm »

Lost on Temple, 18-16 YTD. About to exile week night plays like I did totals.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7748 on: October 18, 2014, 12:14:17 am »

Same here. Lost 4 units tonight.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7749 on: October 18, 2014, 07:58:13 am »

Jeff,

I'm curious as to why you're high on OU?

I think OU the past few weeks has played further below their potential than almost any team out there. Was at the game when they lost to TCU. The eyeball test says they are loaded and not firing on all cylinders. They should have beat the frogs by 20. I'm
Thinking they snap out of it today playing at home.
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