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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 330221 times)

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7000 on: September 16, 2014, 04:05:11 pm »

I say it once a week, but...

I love this thread.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7001 on: September 16, 2014, 04:05:42 pm »

We need an "investors convention."
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7002 on: September 16, 2014, 04:08:20 pm »

I say it once a week, but...

I love this thread.

Me too, it's become the main reason I check Hogville.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7003 on: September 16, 2014, 04:09:11 pm »

Purdue +31  2*  WON
Tulane pick 'em  1*  WON
Louisville -7....1*  LOSS
AR +2.5....2*   WON
KY +17.5....1*   WON
Penn St -3....1*  PUSH
WKY +1....1*   LOSS

2014-2015 season
11-13-1 (46%) -$654profit -33% ROI Bankroll $1346


4-2-1 on the week. Only 3 for this weekend, and I doubt I’ll add to it.

OU -8….2*
AU -9….1*
NC +3….2*


That OU line seems real fishy to me. Especially considering it opened at 11 and was immediately bet down to 8.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7004 on: September 16, 2014, 04:29:25 pm »

We need an "investors convention."

Let's set it up!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7005 on: September 16, 2014, 04:33:54 pm »

Let's set it up!

We could set up a golf round and gamble our asses off.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7006 on: September 16, 2014, 04:53:40 pm »

We could set up a golf round and gamble our asses off.

Hot springs village? 3 day weekend? One round per day? Split cost of rental?
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razorjack12

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7007 on: September 16, 2014, 05:13:16 pm »

An interesting stat comparing the 2 deeps for Auburn and Kansas State:

Auburn
28 Four Star recruits
5 Five Star Recruits

K State
0 Four Star Recruits
0 Five Star Recruits

Line Auburn -8 1/2
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7008 on: September 16, 2014, 05:33:23 pm »

Utah is probably my favorite play on the board this week. Waiting to see if it will get higher than 6.

I locked in Auburn at -9.5 yesterday morning. Looks like I should have waited, figured the line would only shoot up. Don't think it will matter, Auburn should run away with it.

I got in at +6 this morning for $300 and saw it is now down to +4.5 and I hate betting games this early but I knew it would start moving.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7009 on: September 16, 2014, 06:00:38 pm »

We need an "investors convention."

Didn't you mention this in EI during season and we never set it up?

I played in the village today.  Didn't bet but I hit it like crap, so that's good. 

Let's do it quick before hunting season and I'm in. 

Auburn is at -8.5.  I'm gonna wait and see if It can get to -8 so I can buy it down to -7.  The O is a little high but I'd sure love to play it. 
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7010 on: September 16, 2014, 07:32:55 pm »

I say it once a week, but...

I love this thread.

+1 and ditto.

Me too, it's become the main reason I check Hogville.

+1, same here

That OU line seems real fishy to me. Especially considering it opened at 11 and was immediately bet down to 8.

I think it has a lot to do with the perception of WV hanging tough with Bama, and OU not destroying UT. I, personally, feel that OU is going to want to put it on WV since they hung within 10 of Bama so that in some roundabout way, Stoops can thump his chest like he beat the Tide again. Again JMO.

Hot springs village? 3 day weekend? One round per day? Split cost of rental?

I'm down to get together, but I don't play golf.

An interesting stat comparing the 2 deeps for Auburn and Kansas State:

Auburn
28 Four Star recruits
5 Five Star Recruits

K State
0 Four Star Recruits
0 Five Star Recruits

Line Auburn -8 1/2

I just don't see any way KSt hangs within 14 of them. Again, JMO, but I don't see the players at KSt being able to handle as physical of a team as Auburn. They run and are powerful when they do it. I don't see a romp like we put on TT, but I don't see this game going down to the wire. Auburn is the real deal. You don't know how much it pains me to be objective against Auburn.

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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7011 on: September 16, 2014, 07:36:18 pm »

+1 and ditto.

+1, same here

I think it has a lot to do with the perception of WV hanging tough with Bama, and OU not destroying UT. I, personally, feel that OU is going to want to put it on WV since they hung within 10 of Bama so that in some roundabout way, Stoops can thump his chest like he beat the Tide again. Again JMO.

I'm down to get together, but I don't play golf.

I just don't see any way KSt hangs within 14 of them. Again, JMO, but I don't see the players at KSt being able to handle as physical of a team as Auburn. They run and are powerful when they do it. I don't see a romp like we put on TT, but I don't see this game going down to the wire. Auburn is the real deal. You don't know how much it pains me to be objective against Auburn.

Golf carts are fun to drive drunk.

And on your objective auburn comment, when talkin money it doesn't matter.  We prefer they whoop up on everyone they play here on out
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7012 on: September 16, 2014, 07:44:17 pm »

Didn't you mention this in EI during season and we never set it up?

I played in the village today.  Didn't bet but I hit it like crap, so that's good. 

Let's do it quick before hunting season and I'm in. 

Auburn is at -8.5.  I'm gonna wait and see if It can get to -8 so I can buy it down to -7.  The O is a little high but I'd sure love to play it. 

If hunting season comes before golf or football we simply can't be friends :)
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7013 on: September 16, 2014, 08:54:44 pm »

If hunting season comes before golf or football we simply can't be friends :)

Golf yes, football no.  The duck club tends to get angry when I mandate the TV be on arkansas killing nichols st.  (opening of dove season). 

Friends buy friends drinks, I don't recall you buying me a drink :)  But lets make this get together happen
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7014 on: September 16, 2014, 09:24:54 pm »

Even a round at Stonebridge on a Friday before game day would be cool if enough people wanted to.

Anyway, I do agree that the perception of WVU could be skewed due to their performance against Bama. That's a good point but something's telling me sharp money is moving that line.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7015 on: September 16, 2014, 09:42:30 pm »

Even a round at Stonebridge on a Friday before game day would be cool if enough people wanted to.

Anyway, I do agree that the perception of WVU could be skewed due to their performance against Bama. That's a good point but something's telling me sharp money is moving that line.

WV just lost their starting DB yesterday also, I believe.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7016 on: September 16, 2014, 10:06:51 pm »

WV just lost their starting DB yesterday also, I believe.

qb or db?
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7017 on: September 16, 2014, 10:18:19 pm »

http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11540512/bettor-loses-100k-payday-5-bet-philadelphia-eagles-last-second-win

15 game parlay vs the spread?

I hope the guy found a way to bet against himself to offset a chunk of that,
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7018 on: September 16, 2014, 10:26:21 pm »

http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11540512/bettor-loses-100k-payday-5-bet-philadelphia-eagles-last-second-win

15 game parlay vs the spread?

I hope the guy found a way to bet against himself to offset a chunk of that,

He only bet $5.  I doubt he needed to offset a "chunk" being $5.  Only widespread hedges his bets of that caliber! haha
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7019 on: September 16, 2014, 10:31:52 pm »

He only bet $5.  I doubt he needed to offset a "chunk" being $5.  Only widespread hedges his bets of that caliber! haha

Haha, I would have definitely been trying to hedge but sounds like the Delaware Sports Lottery only allows a minimum three team parlay so that would have been mighty tricky.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7020 on: September 16, 2014, 10:50:47 pm »

http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11540512/bettor-loses-100k-payday-5-bet-philadelphia-eagles-last-second-win

15 game parlay vs the spread?

I hope the guy found a way to bet against himself to offset a chunk of that,

And I thought I'd had some bad beats. I'd probably cry myself to sleep for a month if I was that close to $100k only to see it taken from me.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7021 on: September 16, 2014, 10:55:59 pm »

Golf yes, football no.  The duck club tends to get angry when I mandate the TV be on arkansas killing nichols st.  (opening of dove season). 

Friends buy friends drinks, I don't recall you buying me a drink :)  But lets make this get together happen


Lol I hear ya.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7022 on: September 16, 2014, 10:56:46 pm »

Even a round at Stonebridge on a Friday before game day would be cool if enough people wanted to.

Anyway, I do agree that the perception of WVU could be skewed due to their performance against Bama. That's a good point but something's telling me sharp money is moving that line.

Possible, but since I live in the DFW area!  Well you know.
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7023 on: September 16, 2014, 10:59:28 pm »

He only bet $5.  I doubt he needed to offset a "chunk" being $5.  Only widespread hedges his bets of that caliber! haha

He could have guaranteed himself a big payday.  If it were me, I would have bet $10000 against myself and guaranteed a payout either way.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7024 on: September 16, 2014, 11:00:34 pm »

He could have guaranteed himself a big payday.  If it were me, I would have bet $10000 against myself and guaranteed a payout either way.

This!
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7025 on: September 16, 2014, 11:31:51 pm »

I would like some advice if you don't mind from some of the regulars here.  What are your thoughts on over 50 in the Redskins-Eagles this coming Sunday?  RG3 being out only makes me like this bet even more...Cousins is a stud!  I am seriously thinking about dropping $500 on the over barring any crazy weather or last minute injuries.  When you look at the big picture here...50 seems pretty damn low to me.  I could totally see this game being 40something to 30something.  Thoughts?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7026 on: September 17, 2014, 06:33:01 am »

I would like some advice if you don't mind from some of the regulars here.  What are your thoughts on over 50 in the Redskins-Eagles this coming Sunday?  RG3 being out only makes me like this bet even more...Cousins is a stud!  I am seriously thinking about dropping $500 on the over barring any crazy weather or last minute injuries.  When you look at the big picture here...50 seems pretty damn low to me.  I could totally see this game being 40something to 30something.  Thoughts?

It seems like sound reasoning to me.  Wish I could give more feedback.  Totals are probably my week spot.  You would figure Philly scores at least 30 though right?  I dunno. Lol good luck either way Bud!
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7027 on: September 17, 2014, 07:17:40 am »

I would like some advice if you don't mind from some of the regulars here.  What are your thoughts on over 50 in the Redskins-Eagles this coming Sunday?  RG3 being out only makes me like this bet even more...Cousins is a stud!  I am seriously thinking about dropping $500 on the over barring any crazy weather or last minute injuries.  When you look at the big picture here...50 seems pretty damn low to me.  I could totally see this game being 40something to 30something.  Thoughts?

I'd be hesitant.  Eagles have a pretty good D.  And they have yet to figure out how to score in the red zone or the 1st half.  I took them and the over with the colts with my largest bet ever and hurt barely squeezed by.  Philly got to the red zone 4 times at one point coming away with 6 points total I believe.  Cousins could have a decent day and score 14-21.  I could easily see it being a 13-17 redskins to 21-28 eagles.  You could look at teasing your bet?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7028 on: September 17, 2014, 07:58:01 am »

GT +8 locked for first Saturday play
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7029 on: September 17, 2014, 03:08:32 pm »

I finally found some trends that look decent, but several of those picks make me think that we haven't flushed the cupcake effect out of the stats yet.  So far, I've done 1/2 unit each on the following:

San Jose St. +8.5
Virginia +14
Miss. St. +10
GT +8.5
OK -8

The sheets loved Utah State, but Arkansas State's brutal paycheck games have skewed their stats, so I'm passing.  The sheets like Hawaii, Texas A&M, and Rutgers, but they are all pretty banged up, so I'm passing on those as well. They also like Troy, but I just can't bring myself to play one where Georgia will pretty much name its points.  I wanted MO at -14 but the line was at -15.  I'll reassess and may add that later.   
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Tai_Mai_Shu

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7030 on: September 17, 2014, 03:18:27 pm »

I heard somebody at work said Chuckie Keeton is out for Utah State. I know knee was banged up.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7031 on: September 17, 2014, 03:23:37 pm »

Good catch.  Yep, that game didn't make it close enough to my final cut for me to check injury reports, but this was on one of the sites:

(!)[QB] 09/15/2014 - Chuckie Keeton is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Arkansas State ( Knee )
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7032 on: September 17, 2014, 06:43:21 pm »

I'd be hesitant.  Eagles have a pretty good D.  And they have yet to figure out how to score in the red zone or the 1st half.  I took them and the over with the colts with my largest bet ever and hurt barely squeezed by.  Philly got to the red zone 4 times at one point coming away with 6 points total I believe.  Cousins could have a decent day and score 14-21.  I could easily see it being a 13-17 redskins to 21-28 eagles.  You could look at teasing your bet?

Thanks for this info...not sure what I am gonna do but it is now up to 51 so we know where the public is going.  What scares me almost out of playing it is that you think there is even a chance it could be a 17-13 game...yikes!
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7033 on: September 17, 2014, 06:45:16 pm »

I finally found some trends that look decent, but several of those picks make me think that we haven't flushed the cupcake effect out of the stats yet.  So far, I've done 1/2 unit each on the following:

San Jose St. +8.5
Virginia +14
Miss. St. +10
GT +8.5
OK -8

The sheets loved Utah State, but Arkansas State's brutal paycheck games have skewed their stats, so I'm passing.  The sheets like Hawaii, Texas A&M, and Rutgers, but they are all pretty banged up, so I'm passing on those as well. They also like Troy, but I just can't bring myself to play one where Georgia will pretty much name its points.  I wanted MO at -14 but the line was at -15.  I'll reassess and may add that later.   

I am with you on Miss St +10 but that little voice in my gut tells me they will either win the game outright or get drilled...no in between.  I might take a look at the $ line on this one.  ESPN loves Miss St from all I have seen so far this year and none of them seem to be high on LSU.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7034 on: September 17, 2014, 06:46:59 pm »

Taking Cardinals -155 moneyline for 4 units per a friend that bets a lot of baseball
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7035 on: September 17, 2014, 06:47:12 pm »

It seems like sound reasoning to me.  Wish I could give more feedback.  Totals are probably my week spot.  You would figure Philly scores at least 30 though right?  I dunno. Lol good luck either way Bud!

I used to not keep up with totals much myself, but last year I made a killing on NFL totals.  It is amazing how often a total that seems really high goes over and a total that seems really low goes under.  Just food for thought.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7036 on: September 17, 2014, 08:28:22 pm »

Thanks for this info...not sure what I am gonna do but it is now up to 51 so we know where the public is going.  What scares me almost out of playing it is that you think there is even a chance it could be a 17-13 game...yikes!

To be exact I am saying the redskins could score 13-17 and the eagles could score 21-28.  If I were to play this game, I'd tease it to widen the spread.  Also, Chip Kelly could get the Offense clicking and put 41 on the seahawks if he needed too.  He's got receivers, backs, and receivers with a good arm'd QB to score.  They just need to show they can score in the red zone consistently, and their kicker is a rookie that was un drafted and tried out for a couple of teams before the eagles signing him. 
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7037 on: September 17, 2014, 08:33:46 pm »

To be exact I am saying the redskins could score 13-17 and the eagles could score 21-28.  If I were to play this game, I'd tease it to widen the spread.  Also, Chip Kelly could get the Offense clicking and put 41 on the seahawks if he needed too.  He's got receivers, backs, and receivers with a good arm'd QB to score.  They just need to show they can score in the red zone consistently, and their kicker is a rookie that was un drafted and tried out for a couple of teams before the eagles signing him. 

Ok I misread that.  Makes me feel better for sure. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7038 on: September 17, 2014, 08:51:11 pm »

Keeton's backup is 6-1 as a starter
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7039 on: September 17, 2014, 10:01:51 pm »

Second Saturday play is MIZ -13.5 (-115)
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7040 on: September 17, 2014, 10:09:16 pm »

So far I just have a parlay booked for the weekend.

Auburn -9
Pitt -6.5
ECU - 2.5

$50 to win $292.70

I hate to bet favorites but Oh well.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7041 on: September 17, 2014, 10:28:48 pm »

So far I just have a parlay booked for the weekend.

Auburn -9
Pitt -6.5
ECU - 2.5

$50 to win $292.70

I hate to bet favorites but Oh well.

Parlays are nice but I don't have the patience to parlay games not on the same day!  Ha
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razorjack12

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7042 on: September 18, 2014, 04:36:37 am »

What does everyone think of a -330 Money Line wager on Auburn?

I just don't see how K State wins this game.   Which is always what I say before making a stupid wager.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7043 on: September 18, 2014, 06:01:36 am »

So you'd wager 330 to make a 100?  I personally wouldn't touch that with Monopoly money.  If you're that scared of covering the spread then stay away or find a confident way to tease it (gets it too -2.5).  I'd go drastic and buy it down 2 points at like -170 before I'd hit a -330 money line.  It's college football, Jacksonville st, Appalachian st, vandy to Arkansas a few years ago, etc.  these things happen.  There are obviously enough people betting at Kstate +9 or +8.5 to have kept it from moving, which scares me. 
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7044 on: September 18, 2014, 07:30:43 am »

I have seen it back at 9.5 this morning
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7045 on: September 18, 2014, 08:11:43 am »

What does everyone think of a -330 Money Line wager on Auburn?

I just don't see how K State wins this game.   Which is always what I say before making a stupid wager.

Playing heavy favorites on the money line is always a stupid wager in college football, win or lose.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7046 on: September 18, 2014, 10:19:11 am »

first half is at -5. I may take that instead of buying it back down to 9. I already have 2 units on Au at 9 from earlier in the week.
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7047 on: September 18, 2014, 10:45:09 am »

first half is at -5. I may take that instead of buying it back down to 9. I already have 2 units on Au at 9 from earlier in the week.

Buying it back down to 9?  Did your book move it too -11?  I can get it at -7 for -150

Actually, I just checked again, I can get it at -7 for -110!!!!!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7048 on: September 18, 2014, 10:46:01 am »

Buying it back down to 9?  Did your book move it too -11?  I can get it at -7 for -150

Auburn just dropped to -8 on mine
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onebadrubi

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #7049 on: September 18, 2014, 10:52:17 am »

I still haven't placed my bet yet, because vegas seems to know something I don't.  I just can't see Kstate having the depth to hold Auburn.  After seeing the Hogs first half with them I'm definitely leaving the first half alone though, at least with the spread. 
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