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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 341602 times)

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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5750 on: November 23, 2013, 03:46:44 pm »

Earlier in the thread you asked why I don't post earlier during the week.  I gave my reasons.  When I post a play it means I have bet it and at the line I post. Today I could bet Penn ST -5 in Youngstown.  I could play Penn ST plus 1 in Carson city.  I didn't play either but just saying.

Lines differ by region often times based on proximity to fan base when it comes to huge colleges and the NFL.

I agree, and it's obvious you have local or regional sources. I'm just used to finding lines online which are the same better or slightly worse, depending on the situation.  I totally understand the whole process.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5751 on: November 23, 2013, 03:47:10 pm »

Mine is secretive only because mine is almost never online ya know.

Your situation is obviously different from the rest of us in that you are the only one (I believe) booking through an individual.  I can see a reason to post the source for us "onliners"...could be helpful info.  But the way I see things, if someone posts a great line from 5Dimes, would you have enough time prior to kickoff to actually sign-up for that site?  Probably not as they aren't the friendliest to join, with the need for a copy of your DL and everything else asked for.  By the time you jump through the hoops, then the line has already changed.  If you are already on 5Dimes, then couldn't you go find that line yourself when it is posted on here by somebody?--and even then the line has possibly changed by the time you get to it.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5752 on: November 23, 2013, 03:47:42 pm »

+1

Added:

Baylor o79  1*  (SB)



I'm looking at the opposite... usually 2 teams like this end up on the under. I'll probably put a small play on the under, just not an official pick.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5753 on: November 23, 2013, 03:49:34 pm »

Your situation is obviously different from the rest of us in that you are the only one (I believe) booking through an individual.  I can see a reason to post the source for us "onliners"...could be helpful info.  But the way I see things, if someone posts a great line from 5Dimes, would you have enough time prior to kickoff to actually sign-up for that site?  Probably not as they aren't the friendliest to join, with the need for a copy of your DL and everything else asked for.  By the time you jump through the hoops, then the line has already changed.  If you are already on 5Dimes, then couldn't you go find that line yourself when it is posted on here by somebody?--and even then the line has possibly changed by the time you get to it.

If someone picks a line that's way off and it's an online line, it's pretty standard to post the location.
I have accounts @ 5dimes, SB, Heritage, BM among aothers, and with all those you can almost always get the best lines. Usually BM or 5D has them and Heritage has lower juice and the option to buy up or down on a game 7-14 points either way.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5754 on: November 23, 2013, 03:51:25 pm »

Notre dame is strongest play on my ticket today....I got it at +1. At home coming off a bye week I think that one is hot.

If Tommy Turnover wasn't the QB, I'd pick ND. He single-handedly lost them the Pitt game.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5755 on: November 23, 2013, 03:51:29 pm »

I got ya, Nug.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5756 on: November 23, 2013, 03:54:24 pm »

I'll post the online source if anyone asks me for it on a particular bet; otherwise, I won't, regardless of how good it might be. Just ask and I'll be happy to pass it along.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5757 on: November 23, 2013, 03:58:00 pm »

I'll post the online source if anyone asks me for it on a particular bet; otherwise, I won't, regardless of how good it might be. Just ask and I'll be happy to pass it along.

Sometimes it's good to post it, so others can get on it.. just another reason. ;)
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5758 on: November 23, 2013, 03:59:53 pm »

    Here's my picks so far... might add a couple more.

    @ UCLA +3 -115 BM vs AZ St.  (It's -2.5 -110 everywhere else. UCLA dog @ home with points? You kidding me?)
(W)   Duke -4.5 @ Wake Forest (I'm not sure why this line is coming down, except Duke is coming off big win against Miami)
(W)    Miss St -1.5 -108 Heritage @ Arkansas (State is the better team, closer to 8-10 points better. Until QB and DEF get better. State needs to win out to be bowl eligible. The one unknown is who is going to start @ QB for State, as their 2 starters are banged up and listed day to day.)
    Vanderbilt +3 SB @ Tenn (Yes, Tenner is good @ home, but Vanderbilt is the better team and +3 is still out there)
    Missouri -2.5 BM -110 /Heritage -108 @ Ole Miss (Missouri, needs to win out to win their division, and Franklin is supposed to play)

    I hate mid-week games but I think (W) NIU @ -2.5 @ Toledo is the pick. They have something to prove and want a BCS game. The only way that's possible is if they win out. It's a tough game, no doubt there, but I think they are the slight favorite, just as the line shows.

Also adding
NFL
Denver -2 (-108) or -2 1/2 @ NE  - ML is -130 if you want to not worry about a -1 or -2 pt game. NE is banged up all over, they should not be able to contain all of the Denver weapons. They have numerous rookies in the secondary and Talib hurt himself last game. Mayo, their MLB has been out most of the year and their offensive weapons are basically Brady, Gronk and Vereen, who just back for his 2nd game after missing most of the year with a wrist injury.

College
(L) Houston -3 (-103) Heritage @ Houston

Currently 3-1
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5759 on: November 23, 2013, 04:00:42 pm »

Sometimes it's good to post it, so others can get on it.. just another reason. ;)

You make a valid point, Nug.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5760 on: November 23, 2013, 04:08:04 pm »

+1

Added:

Baylor o79  1*  (SB)



Will love ya man, and you may hit this. I'm not betting it, but if I did I would play the under. Gonna be miserable weather in Stillwater. Yes I often say inclement weather benefits the offense, but seems like a lot of points in this one.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5761 on: November 23, 2013, 04:09:08 pm »

Sometimes it's good to post it, so others can get on it.. just another reason. ;)

Good point. The only thing I generally play online is exotic stuff like 5 dollar 10 or 12 team parlays.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5762 on: November 23, 2013, 04:09:22 pm »

I still like Mizzu, and it's a pick'em now. -108 Heritage... I don't care if this is a small RLM play or not. Mizzu is the better team, has their QB back and is looking to get to the SEC Championship game and an outside shot at the NCG.

Jeff, you need a smaller Ernie, it makes your small posts, look huge and empty! =)

Well I am playing the OSU under 79, but I'm not making it an official play. Jeff is right it's darn weather there and these two defenses are pretty damn good.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5763 on: November 23, 2013, 04:13:13 pm »

Good point. The only thing I generally play online is exotic stuff like 5 dollar 10 or 12 team parlays.

Yeah, I started doing some crazy 15 to 25 team open parlay plays. Nothing like hitting some of your picks for the week with some ML plays, then coming back the next few weeks to fill in the open slots with other ML plays or if you wanna risk it other weekly picks.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5764 on: November 23, 2013, 04:21:49 pm »

DAMN!

Georgia Southern beats Florida.... OMG
I thought our season was crap, lol that's sad.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5765 on: November 23, 2013, 04:23:12 pm »

GA S had 0 passing yards. Whoa.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5766 on: November 23, 2013, 04:25:03 pm »

Adding another play, and it's official.

Oklahoma State Team Total under 35 -110 BM and splitting it with under 36 -115 SB.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5767 on: November 23, 2013, 04:28:54 pm »

GA S had 0 passing yards. Whoa.

LOL Triple Optioned them to death...
Remember when Jack Crowe coach Arkansas against The Citadel and they ran us up and down and beat our ass? Gah... reminds me of that.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5768 on: November 23, 2013, 04:30:45 pm »

LOL Triple Optioned them to death...
Remember when Jack Crowe coach Arkansas against The Citadel and they ran us up and down and beat our ass? Gah... reminds me of that.

Thankfully, we were on vacation for the Citadel game. Some other unfortunate soul used our tickets.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5769 on: November 23, 2013, 04:32:50 pm »

Unofficial - but I'm playing as personal picks
@ Colorado +21.5 -108 Heritage vs USC
Boise St -6.5 -110 @ SDSU

2nd Half A&M - Pick'em -110 vs LSU
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5770 on: November 23, 2013, 04:34:08 pm »

Thankfully, we were on vacation for the Citadel game. Some other unfortunate soul used our tickets.

I listened to it on the Radio, and I couldn't believe it... That was when ole Paul Eells was doing the PbP.
Probably the worst day in Razorback football history, or at least the top 3.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5771 on: November 23, 2013, 04:49:03 pm »

Unofficial - but I'm playing as personal picks
@ Colorado +21.5 -108 Heritage vs USC
Boise St -6.5 -110 @ SDSU

2nd Half A&M - Pick'em -110 vs LSU

I like the Colorado play. To describe USC as fickle is an inderstatement
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5772 on: November 23, 2013, 04:56:38 pm »

Will love ya man, and you may hit this. I'm not betting it, but if I did I would play the under. Gonna be miserable weather in Stillwater. Yes I often say inclement weather benefits the offense, but seems like a lot of points in this one.

This one of the needs by the Bookie that posts his needs, and I figure that everyone is thinking that it will go under exactly because of that reason. It's just one of my "against the grain" picks.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5773 on: November 23, 2013, 06:07:08 pm »

added

Mizzou -3  1*
Vandy -3.5 1*  in game bet
Mizzou -6.5 1* in game bet
« Last Edit: November 23, 2013, 06:57:18 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5774 on: November 23, 2013, 06:36:04 pm »

Another very good weekend.  I went 6-1 ATS for +25 units before juice and 6-1 on parlays for +19.8 after juice for a +44.8 weekend.  For the season, that puts me at 61-34-3 (64.2%) ATS and 41-17 (70.7%) on parlays for a total of +96.6 units.  That makes it 6 weeks in a row in the black (ever since I started playing this angle), and my bankroll is a little over 10x what it was 6 weeks ago.  I may get a vacation out of this thing after all.

Another big thank you to Jeff for sharing your picks!  I've gotten into the habit of not posting my tails and not counting them in my record, because I want my record of posted plays to be "my" record.  You're making pretty good money for me, even if I'm not claiming credit for it in my posted record. 

Here's how it played out:

5 units each on:
UNLV +1.5  W
Navy +3  W
Duke -4.5  W
Mid TN St -22.5  L
Bowling Gr -23.5  W
E Car -6  W
Mich +6  W

I did 2-team parlays for a total of 8.75 units on:
UNLV w/ Navy, Duke, & EC  W, W, W
Duke w/ BG & MTSU  W, L
Navy w/ Duke & EC  W, W
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5775 on: November 23, 2013, 06:49:48 pm »

Another very good weekend.  I went 6-1 ATS for +25 units before juice and 6-1 on parlays for +19.8 after juice for a +44.8 weekend.  For the season, that puts me at 61-34-3 (64.2%) ATS and 41-17 (70.7%) on parlays for a total of +96.6 units.  That makes it 6 weeks in a row in the black (ever since I started playing this angle), and my bankroll is a little over 10x what it was 6 weeks ago.  I may get a vacation out of this thing after all.

Another big thank you to Jeff for sharing your picks!  I've gotten into the habit of not posting my tails and not counting them in my record, because I want my record of posted plays to be "my" record.  You're making pretty good money for me, even if I'm not claiming credit for it in my posted record. 

Here's how it played out:

5 units each on:
UNLV +1.5  W
Navy +3  W
Duke -4.5  W
Mid TN St -22.5  L
Bowling Gr -23.5  W
E Car -6  W
Mich +6  W

I did 2-team parlays for a total of 8.75 units on:
UNLV w/ Navy, Duke, & EC  W, W, W
Duke w/ BG & MTSU  W, L
Navy w/ Duke & EC  W, W

+100 Great year so far man. I love it when you, Jeff and I all are on the same side. If I can see 2 out of 3 on therx on the same side as us, or even 2 out of the 3 of us, I am all over it. This is my worst year by far, but I'm playing more games this year than I ever have, or even should be.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5776 on: November 23, 2013, 07:51:21 pm »

In game line
Baylor v OSU u69.5  1*

Have to offset that horrible over bet I made earlier...lol...should have listened to you Jeff.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5777 on: November 23, 2013, 08:02:47 pm »

Trying to bail myself out again

UCLA +15.5 1*  in game line
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5778 on: November 23, 2013, 08:26:41 pm »

This one of the needs by the Bookie that posts his needs, and I figure that everyone is thinking that it will go under exactly because of that reason. It's just one of my "against the grain" picks.

All my guys had everyone playing the over.  They also had them playing the over on am LSU .
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5779 on: November 23, 2013, 08:27:20 pm »

All my guys had everyone playing the over.  They also had them playing the over on am LSU .

Thought I was on my own with the under in both.   Good money for me though .
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5780 on: November 23, 2013, 09:18:01 pm »

added OSU -10  1*


trying to make up for my bad bets today.
thank the lord for in-game betting.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5781 on: November 23, 2013, 10:15:08 pm »

OSU -18.5  1*
2h USC -7.5  1*
Washington St -17.5  1*
« Last Edit: November 23, 2013, 10:33:17 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5782 on: November 23, 2013, 11:00:23 pm »

Just thought I would run these by you guys for your opinions.

Baylor (-9) @ Okla State  O/U-78               Baylor -9

Oklahoma @ K-State (-4) O/U-54               Over

Texas A&M @ LSU (-4)     O/U-72              A&M +4

Missouri (-3) @ Ole Miss   O/U-58               Missouri -3

Nebraska @ Penn State (-2) O/U-50            Nebraska +2

Michigan St (-7) @ Northwestern O/U-41.5   Mich St -7

Your thoughts?

Didn't get a lot of feedback from you guys on this but stuck with my picks, went 4-2 so I am happy. ended up on the plus side, which is always good.
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5783 on: November 24, 2013, 12:10:22 am »

Didn't get a lot of feedback from you guys on this but stuck with my picks, went 4-2 so I am happy. ended up on the plus side, which is always good.

I bet all those same games except the LSU game.  Liked LSU but didn't know which team would show up.  If somebody woulda told me Johnny was gonna ignore Evans the whole game I would've hammered it.  I bet KSU -3 though and not the o/u. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5784 on: November 24, 2013, 06:36:06 am »

Didn't get a lot of feedback from you guys on this but stuck with my picks, went 4-2 so I am happy. ended up on the plus side, which is always good.


Sorry about that I must have missed it the first time.  I like your 4 winners a lot!  :)

In fact at quick glance I dunno that I played any of those games.  Played the under in LSU A&M game though.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5785 on: November 24, 2013, 06:40:15 am »

Brutal.  Check please.

Was rough that's for sure.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5786 on: November 24, 2013, 06:46:08 am »

I should have been more clear. I bet a nickle on it. I've never been 5 dimes on a football game, but I did bet 14 dimes a on tennis match to win 2 dimes and I won... although it went 5 sets and I was down 0-2. ;/

Lol bet you were close to stroking out!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5787 on: November 24, 2013, 06:55:41 am »

Steelers +3 / Dime play.  Got them at 2.5 bought it to 3
Giants / Cows over 44 / 4 units
Indy +3 / 3 units
Minn / GB under 45 / 5 units
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5788 on: November 24, 2013, 09:08:23 am »

In doing some "film study" on the spreadsheets' week 13 picks, I went back and looked at the trend I mentioned earlier that, at the time, had hit 36-4 for 40 picks at 90% ATS.  It did as expected in week 12 and went 2-0.  It went from 2 picks on week 12 to 9 picks for week 13, so I didn't have much confidence in it.  It ended up going 8-1 for week 13 so now stands at 46-5 for 51 picks at 90.2% ATS.  I'll pay more attention to it next week ... although, with it being rivalry week, I'll still be a little cautious about blindly following the numbers.

I'm also going to make a second "accounting adjustment" and double the size of my unit play again, mainly because I don't want to list my standard, across the board, plays as being 10 unit plays.  I'm still sticking with bankroll management rules of thumb where no one play will exceed 10% of my bankroll.  With that adjustment, instead of being up 96.6 units, I'll be up 48.3 units on the season.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5789 on: November 24, 2013, 09:53:30 am »

Adding NYG  -2.5  2u
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5790 on: November 24, 2013, 10:41:32 am »

Vader is killing it folks
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5791 on: November 24, 2013, 08:07:27 pm »

Vader is killing it folks

Damn right. Spreadsheets rule, but he's also right about this weekend. Rivalry games have that extra something special that computers can't account for.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5792 on: November 24, 2013, 08:14:31 pm »


Sorry about that I must have missed it the first time.  I like your 4 winners a lot!  :)

In fact at quick glance I dunno that I played any of those games.  Played the under in LSU A&M game though.

I figured A&M would give LSU a LOT more trouble than they did. And Oklahoma State, who would have thought that they would dominate Baylor the way they did? Didn't see that coming at all. Now if anybody ran spreadsheets on that game and came up with the result that occured, we need to talk. ;)
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5793 on: November 24, 2013, 11:21:46 pm »

Finally had a decent week percentage wise, but the juice killed my profit.

This weekend is going to be different from the last few. I doubt there will be 30 bets from me.

Duke -4.5 2* (got this line on Sunday or Monday)  W +$40
Duke -5.5 1*  W +$20
Duke -7 1*  Push
Michigan +6 1*  W +$20
Michigan/Iowa over 46 1*  L -$24
Oregon -18.5 3*  L -$84
Vandy +2.5  1*  W +$20
Wyoming -7  1*  L -$24
UCLA +2.5  1*  L -$24
Bowling Green -25.5  1*  W +$20
Illinois -7  1*  L -$24
Florida Atlantic -21 1* (got this line on 11/19)  W +$20
Ar v Miss St u51 1*  W +$20
ECU -5.5 1*  W+$20
2h Michigan +6.5  1*  L –$24
Ohio St -35  1*  L –$24
Baylor -7.5  1*  L –$24
Idaho +59 1*  L –$24
LSU -3.5  1*  W +$20
Notre Dame +2  1*  W +$20
Baylor o79  1*  L –$24
Mizzou -3  1*  W +$20
Vandy -3.5  1*  W +$20
Mizzou -6.5 1*  W +$20
Baylor v OSU u69.5  1*  W +$20
UCLA +15.5 1*  W +$20
OSU -10  1*  W +$20
OSU -18.5  1*  W+$20
2h USC -7.5  1*  L -$24
Washington -17.5  1*  W +$20
This was typed as Wash St, but I posted it at 10:15 and the Wazzu game ended way earlier in the afternoon.

Weely Record:
18-11-1  62%  +$56

Overall Record:
108-108-8 (50%)  $454  -85% ROI
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Blutoblutarsky

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5794 on: November 25, 2013, 07:52:17 am »

Hogs +4 CBB today. Bigggg bet
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5795 on: November 25, 2013, 08:42:57 am »

Yes, it's definitely been my best season over a short career.  With all of the time that I've put into the grunt work, ground floor stuff, it definitely falls far short of a minimum wage type return at this point.  But, it's been a fun challenge, and  I'm looking at it as an investment for the future.  If I can get this thing figured out and sufficiently automated, the hourly wage should increase dramatically.  Then, hopefully, I can follow in Jeff's footsteps and turn this into a nice little vacation fund in the next year or three.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5796 on: November 25, 2013, 09:01:59 am »

Well my percentage was low for the weekend

4-3 college 2-2 on pros, but both dime plays and my two dime play hit so was a profitable weekend of 25 units.  Hope to keep it going.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5797 on: November 25, 2013, 10:38:55 am »

Now THAT is slaying it!  With an apples to apples comparison, what you did in ONE weekend is about one unit more than I've done over the entire season ... in my best season ever.  Keep up the good work!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5798 on: November 25, 2013, 04:52:07 pm »

Skins +5.5 / 2 units
Under 49 / 2 units

Two team parlay the same way 2 units
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5799 on: November 25, 2013, 06:33:18 pm »

Skins +5.5 / 2 units
Under 49 / 2 units

Two team parlay the same way 2 units

May want to add a couple of units. This one could be big. I may play Wash on ML. SF has NO passing game, and in the NFL, you can't be running all night. Besides I love home dogs on MNF.
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