Hogville Info
• 9,286,000 Posts
• 382,439 Topics
• 21,386 Hogvillians
THE RULES (Read 'em!)
Quick Links
Pick'Ems:Football      Basketball      Baseball
Sister Sites:Gridiron HistoryFearless Friday
Listen NOW:Game ON 103.3 
  
Pages: 1 ... 111 112 113 [114] 115 116 117 ... 224   Go Down

Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 326624 times)

1 Member and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5650 on: November 17, 2013, 09:11:34 pm »

Well Niners game is going to push when the Saints win by 3.  A little surprised Bree's and company couldn't finish those losers off any better

Well when you have 3 TOs, it's hard to win.. Almost lost, similar to the Jets game.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5651 on: November 17, 2013, 09:16:32 pm »

Hogs +2 this coming Saturday. We win straight up. Easy cash.

While our team looks better these past couple of weeks, our QB play and Defense is very bad.
You can almost chalk up a INT in a bad situation by Allen, and we can't stop the run to save our lives.

Line is 1.5 everywhere I look right now. I'll have to stick with Miss St. I don't see us winning another game, but this is our best chance, it's an early game and it's our last game in the state.
Logged

Sponsored Ad



Hogville encourages you to do business with the following...

Oliver

  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 21,520
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5652 on: November 17, 2013, 09:26:02 pm »

Well when you have 3 TOs, it's hard to win.. Almost lost, similar to the Jets game.

3 TOs doesn't hurt you as much when you are facing losers like Krapernick and Roman
Logged

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 9,961
  • Come to the Dark Side
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5653 on: November 18, 2013, 06:20:41 pm »

Pats +3.5 dime.
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5654 on: November 18, 2013, 06:45:05 pm »

Pats +3.5 dime.

From what I gather, that is a very popular pick.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5655 on: November 18, 2013, 09:57:36 pm »

Off topic, learn fast about virtual currencies. You might be able to retire off them. i.e. BTC, LTC, PPC etc.
Ok, back on topic.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5656 on: November 19, 2013, 01:52:24 am »

Here's some games to look at.

Indiana @ -31.5 Ohio St (Computers showing closer to -26 due to Indian's offense)
Vanderbilt @ -3 Tenn (Computers showing closer to -2/-6 in favor of Vandy)
-1.5 Miss St @ Arkansas (Computers showing closer to -5 to -10 Miss St)
-6.5 Iowa @ Michigan (Computer showing closer to -2.5/+2.5 for Michigan)
-5 Duke @ Wake Forest (Computers showing closer to -8.5 and Duke is on fire)
Nebraska @ -2 Penn St (Computers showing this closer to pick'em)

There are more, but it's late and I'm tired.
Logged

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 9,961
  • Come to the Dark Side
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5657 on: November 19, 2013, 05:39:43 am »

From what I gather, that is a very popular pick.

Wow. Crazy how it went down.
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5658 on: November 19, 2013, 10:05:30 am »

Yeah, I was pulling for you to get a first and goal on the 1 with no time on the clock.  It's been a really weird year in the NFL.
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5659 on: November 19, 2013, 10:25:28 am »

I'm in love with the Duke pick. Already put $$$ down today cuz it may climb before Saturday. Already up a point and a half since Sunday. May be my 2nd 5 star lock of the year.

I also have a small acct that I'm betting nothing but basketball, and I'm tailing someone on 100%. Ill update it later as last night was the first night.
Logged

Hawgndaaz

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8,424
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5660 on: November 19, 2013, 10:28:39 am »

Wow. Crazy how it went down.

guess who didn't buy the hook


:(
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5661 on: November 19, 2013, 11:50:18 am »

LSU -4

They should be able to score at will.
Logged

Tai_Mai_Shu

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 693
  • Gina Carano - these hands aren't made for texting
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5662 on: November 19, 2013, 01:15:11 pm »

LSU -4

They should be able to score at will.

I see that game as whoever has the ball last will win.
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5663 on: November 19, 2013, 04:17:21 pm »

Here's last night's basketball picks:

Memphis Grizzlies/Los Angeles Clippers Over 196½
512 Los Angeles Clippers -8
Portland Trailblazers/Brooklyn Nets Under 196
Charlotte Bobcats +12½
Oklahoma City Thunder -9
Philadelphia 76ers/Dallas Mavericks Under 215½
Utah Jazz +8
Golden State Warriors/Utah Jazz Under 195½
Middle Tennessee State -13
Colorado -16½
East Carolina -2½
Southern Mississippi +6

Here's the ones I'm tailing tonight. I may add a few NBA games.


CBB:
Wisconsin Milwaukee +4
Memphis +8.5
Bucknell +7.5

NBA:
Washington +4

Had to remove some of the games, because the lines weren't available that I posted.
The lines I posted were bet by Billy Walters, and that is what moved them I suspect.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2013, 05:40:51 pm by WILL CLINTON »
Logged

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 9,961
  • Come to the Dark Side
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5664 on: November 19, 2013, 04:18:44 pm »

guess who didn't buy the hook


:(

I never buy from 3.5 to 4 but it bit me this time.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5665 on: November 19, 2013, 04:34:41 pm »

St Bonny line is -6.5 -110 at best and -7/-103
Same with Butler which is -7.5
Not sure where those lines are coming from Will.
Logged

Spikes

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1,146
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5666 on: November 19, 2013, 04:53:57 pm »


     - 135   [103] KENT STATE + 7 - 135  KENT STATE @ OHIO ,                     
     - 110   [102] MIAMI OHIO + 24 - 110  BUFFALO U @ MIAMI OHIO , College Football    11/19/2013 8:00 PM                    
2 Team 7 Pt. Football Teaser   
41204740
11/19/2013 5:52 PM     - 130   [102] MIAMI OHIO + 31 - 110  BUFFALO U @ MIAMI OHIO
[103] KENT STATE + 13 ½ - 110  KENT STATE @ OHIO
               
     - 120   [725] COLORADO STATE + 5 - 120  COLORADO STATE @ UTEP , College Basketball    11/19/2013 9:00 PM                      Straight Bet 
     - 120   [724] WISC MILWAUKEE + 4 - 120  DEPAUL @ WISC MILWAUKEE , College Basketball    11/19/2013 8:00 PM                     

11/19/2013 5:17 PM     - 110   [739] EAST CAROLINA + 24 - 110  EAST CAROLINA @ DUKE , College Basketball    11/19/2013 6:00 PM                     

11/19/2013 5:16 PM     - 110   [734] RUTGERS - 1 - 110  DREXEL @ RUTGERS , College Basketball    11/19/2013 7:30 PM                     
     - 135   [063] CHICAGO - 135  CHICAGO @ COLORADO , NHL   

Good luck guys
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5667 on: November 19, 2013, 05:36:32 pm »

St Bonny line is -6.5 -110 at best and -7/-103
Same with Butler which is -7.5
Not sure where those lines are coming from Will.

I just copied and pasted. I didn't even check them. N Dakota is +19.5 also. I am removing the ones I can't get these lines on.
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5668 on: November 19, 2013, 06:21:09 pm »

Tonight's action

Kent St v Ohio u53
Ohio -7
Buffalo v Miami Ohio o48
Buffalo -24

all 1*

Edit: Don't know why I put u48 earlier, here's my ticket:

9) BET ID=426608584
Straight Wager   11/19/13 19:19 ET
Result: Pending
BuffaloU 44   
MiamiOhio 7    11/19/13(20:10 ET)
Over 48 (-110)
« Last Edit: November 19, 2013, 10:17:57 pm by WILL CLINTON »
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5669 on: November 19, 2013, 07:15:22 pm »

I just copied and pasted. I didn't even check them. N Dakota is +19.5 also. I am removing the ones I can't get these lines on.

Just curious, I figured they had moved.  Thanks
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5670 on: November 19, 2013, 10:13:06 pm »

Just curious, I figured they had moved.  Thanks

about 4 or 5 of those were bet by Billy Walters. Between the time it was posted what he played, and the time I got onto the books, they had moved that much. I've never seen anything like it.
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5671 on: November 20, 2013, 12:05:58 am »

I still only have a fraction of the data for a complete picture, but the ones that are jumping out with the data that I have are:

UNLV +1.5
Navy +2.5
Mid TN St -22.5
Duke -4.5

The spreadsheets also love MS St at -1.5.  If I didn't think that they were banged up from playing Bama, they would probably make my final cut.  Still, I'll probably pass.  I'll probably add 2 or 3 more teams once the rest of the data gets in.   
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5672 on: November 20, 2013, 02:06:38 pm »

Here's my picks so far... might add a couple more.

@ UCLA +3 -115 BM vs AZ St.  (It's -2.5 -110 everywhere else. UCLA dog @ home with points? You kidding me?)
Duke -4.5 @ Wake Forest (I'm not sure why this line is coming down, except Duke is coming off big win against Miami)
Miss St -1.5 -108 Heritage @ Arkansas (State is the better team, closer to 8-10 points better. Until QB and DEF get better. State needs to win out to be bowl eligible. The one unknown is who is going to start @ QB for State, as their 2 starters are banged up and listed day to day.)
Vanderbilt +3 SB @ Tenn (Yes, Tenner is good @ home, but Vanderbilt is the better team and +3 is still out there)
Missouri -2.5 BM -110 /Heritage -108 @ Ole Miss (Missouri, needs to win out to win their division, and Franklin is supposed to play)

I hate mid-week games but I think NIU @ -2.5 @ Toledo is the pick. They have something to prove and want a BCS game. The only way that's possible is if they win out. It's a tough game, no doubt there, but I think they are the slight favorite, just as the line shows.

« Last Edit: November 20, 2013, 04:39:45 pm by nughaud »
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5673 on: November 20, 2013, 07:07:12 pm »

I'm glad to see we agree on a decent number of picks.  Here's what I've done so far:

5 units each on:
UNLV +1.5
Navy +3
Duke -4.5
Mid TN St -22.5
Bowling Gr -23.5
E Car -6
Mich +6

I did 2-team parlays for a total of 8.75 units on:
UNLV w/ Navy, Duke, & EC
Duke w/ BG & MTSU
Navy w/ Duke & EC

The sheets LOVE UNLV.  Duke & Navy are 2a & 2b.  Miss St. was actually 2c, but I'm passing on that game, because it sounds like QB1 & QB2 are both banged up and questionable.  Mich was the last game to make the cut.  It came down to Mich +6, Nebraska +1.5, & Vandy +3, which was a VERY close call.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5674 on: November 20, 2013, 07:17:06 pm »

Yeah, even if the freshman starts, I'd still have to go with Miss St. I think one of the other guys will play though. I was trying to find info today to see who practiced today. See below, I'm not sure if he was practicing or just dressed out, Russell that is.
From Twitter: Michael Bonner ‏@MikeBBonner 19m
Coming in from practice, Tyler Russell was dressed, Dak Prescott was not.
- The follow-up asking if Russell practiced was this:
 Michael Bonner @MikeBBonner    
According to Les Koenning he did, but also said Dak did too.
Les is the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the Mississippi State Bulldogs

Yeah UNLV is picked by around 4 and they are getting points. I'll probably put some on that also. Just always leery of the teams which go against the triple option, but AF is much weaker this year.

Yeah, I might take Michigan and the points also.
I think one of my books has an option up to $200 to let you get out of the Navy game anytime before the 2nd half starts if you want.
I'll have to look into that.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2013, 07:33:55 pm by nughaud »
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5675 on: November 20, 2013, 07:40:39 pm »

Tonight:

NIU and the under  1* each

Went 2-2 on BB picks last night and here's tonight's card

Pepperdine -9
Fresno St -3.5
BYU -7.5
Valpo +5
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5676 on: November 20, 2013, 09:09:21 pm »

I can understand taking a chance on MS St despite the QB questions, but my goal is to have the patience to stick w/ "boring" games with fewer variables.  I like to think that I'm an intelligent guy, but I also try to go by the Dirty Harry quote "A man's got to know his limitations." I KNOW that I don't have the experience & "feel" for the game to outguess wiseguys when it comes down to variables like how big of an impact an important injury might play. 
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5677 on: November 20, 2013, 10:38:05 pm »

I can understand taking a chance on MS St despite the QB questions, but my goal is to have the patience to stick w/ "boring" games with fewer variables.  I like to think that I'm an intelligent guy, but I also try to go by the Dirty Harry quote "A man's got to know his limitations." I KNOW that I don't have the experience & "feel" for the game to outguess wiseguys when it comes down to variables like how big of an impact an important injury might play. 

I think that's why the line is -1.5
The problem for Arkansas if the freshman plays, is I believe he's more like Dak Prescott, who is a running QB, and a passer. I'm not saying he's a good passer, but he has lively legs I believe, since both Nebraska and Kansas St offered him a scholarship. He also did rush for 200+ yards in high school each year, with almost 400 as a freshman, 300+ junior and 200+ senior. He's a 3 star QB out of Louisiana. If he plays, I believe Arkansas will be vulnerable to the big play "pass" and running ability of Williams.

Something has to give. Either Arkansas stops this nasty losing streak or Miss St wins their first game in Arkansas ever. In 1993 they tied, 13-13, but have never won in LR or Fay.  Something will happen on Saturday... that's for sure. I will say this is Arkansas's best shot in forever. If they can't take advantage and win this one, well... it's going to be a loooooooong off-season. Let me correct myself, it's going to be another long off-season, sigh.

http://www.collegefootball.bz/mississippi-state/opponents/arkansas
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5678 on: November 20, 2013, 10:41:03 pm »

NIU picked up the win tonight after a super slow start.
1-0 for a weekday game is rare.
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5679 on: November 20, 2013, 10:57:27 pm »

Well said!  It's the big "if's" that make me pass on this one.  I want to find the 5 or 7 most boring and predictable games each weekend, and this game ain't one of 'em. The rating systems like MS St. VERY much, and I think they'll cover, but I don't think the rating systems account for injuries over a short time span, and I don't want to compete in assessing how their QB issues might impact the line.  I also think that Neb, Vandy, USC, and Kentucky will cover, but I'm trying to narrow things down to what I think are the highest percentage plays and don't like playing more than 7 or 8 games.  MS St. was very close to making my final cut, but there were too many questions because of QB injuries. 

Also, keep the analyses coming Nughaud!  I'm good with crunching numbers but short on gaming experience, and that's one of the BIG benefits of this thread ... helping me with the learning curve of getting a feel for the game instead of just the numbers. For the record, I'm not ENTIRELY a numbers guy.  I didn't play in college but played for 10+ years and had the pleasure, honor, & challenge of blocking Razorback defensive linemen in charity games (WHILE they were Razorback defensive linemen ... long, long ago). I like to think I held my own and am a proud, card-carrying member of FOOL - the Fraternal Order of Offensive Linemen.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2013, 11:30:24 pm by DadVader1 »
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5680 on: November 21, 2013, 12:07:28 pm »

I'm getting back into real cash picks this week with Hogs ML as my number one pick. We WILL NOT lose this game. Mark it down. I've always had a very strong gut when it comes to the Hogs. Even if MS St. covers, I wouldn't consider it a smart play when you consider the intangibles. For example, QB situation for MS St., us coming off a bye, MS St. winless in the Rock, MS St. hangover from Bama, etc. You still have to remember that MS St. is NOT a GOOD football team and we are at home. Fade away if you wish, but don't count on a cover.
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5681 on: November 21, 2013, 12:51:09 pm »

Also, I don't know how much y'all go back and study past lines with their corresponding results but I'm not the only one thinking the Hogs win Saturday. Vegas is begging you to lay the 1-2 points thinking you have an easy cover, when in reality the Hogs have just as good of a chance at winning this game...probably a better chance.
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5682 on: November 21, 2013, 02:09:08 pm »

I hope you're right.  I'm not touching our game.  Good luck & Go Hogs!
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5683 on: November 21, 2013, 03:07:54 pm »

Also, I don't know how much y'all go back and study past lines with their corresponding results but I'm not the only one thinking the Hogs win Saturday. Vegas is begging you to lay the 1-2 points thinking you have an easy cover, when in reality the Hogs have just as good of a chance at winning this game...probably a better chance.

Actually Vegas simply wants even money on both sides of the game. They only make money off the juice. As of right now, about 75% of the money is on State. If State wins, Vegas loses, if Arkansas wins, Vegas wins. 

Vegas loses a lot of the time, but the juice is what makes up for it. Vegas hates it when it's a lopsided game, because they have a chance to lose profits on the game. Over the course of the long run they ended up winning with the added juice to each wager.

As far as the game goes, I have a feeling Tyler Russell is going to play. The same guy who threw for 274 yards and 4 TDs against us. Even if he doesn't it makes me feel better, that if I'm wrong and Arkansas wins, then my team wins. I don't think that will happen, but it's a slight positive if I lose.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5684 on: November 21, 2013, 03:15:45 pm »

I also like -2 (-108) or -2 1/2 Denver @ NE
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5685 on: November 21, 2013, 03:33:51 pm »

Actually Vegas simply wants even money on both sides of the game. They only make money off the juice. As of right now, about 75% of the money is on State. If State wins, Vegas loses, if Arkansas wins, Vegas wins. 

Vegas loses a lot of the time, but the juice is what makes up for it. Vegas hates it when it's a lopsided game, because they have a chance to lose profits on the game. Over the course of the long run they ended up winning with the added juice to each wager.


Yes, Vegas would love split money on every game. That would guarantee no losses. It doesn't work that way though, as you said Vegas loses "a lot" of the time. Which they actually win more than they lose, so I guess they win "a lot" more than they lose. Those casinos weren't built on winners, nor juice. The juice only hedges their losses. Vegas makes the big bucks off of massive public plays like this one. Notice any line movement to split the bets? Absolutely not. There has actually been reverse line movement, there's your biggest tip. Each line/game has its own set of special circumstances. Vegas' objective for one game could be to move the line for 50/50, but in another, there could be info or a circumstance that would incline Vegas to bait the public.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5686 on: November 21, 2013, 04:19:29 pm »

Yes, Vegas would love split money on every game. That would guarantee no losses. It doesn't work that way though, as you said Vegas loses "a lot" of the time. Which they actually win more than they lose, so I guess they win "a lot" more than they lose. Those casinos weren't built on winners, nor juice. The juice only hedges their losses. Vegas makes the big bucks off of massive public plays like this one. Notice any line movement to split the bets? Absolutely not. There has actually been reverse line movement, there's your biggest tip. Each line/game has its own set of special circumstances. Vegas' objective for one game could be to move the line for 50/50, but in another, there could be info or a circumstance that would incline Vegas to bait the public.

When I was saying Vegas loses a lot, I'm speaking of individual games, not over the course of a year.

I have conflicting info that Arkansas opened early at +2 and that line has moved. If that's the case, which I believe, then it's not a RLM. For those that aren't aware, RLM is when a team which is not the public play gains points. In this case, Arkansas which is not a public play lost points. RL is only a tool, but it's only used in conjunction when a dog gets points. i.e. If say the line opened as State -1, and then it moved to Arkansas -1, since only 25% of the bets are on Arkansas. That would tend to indicate that the sharp money is on Arkansas, but sometimes it's a fake and then late money comes on the favorite. It's just a tool and should be used as another point to do so. So, that would be an example of a RLM play. In college they aren't used a much as in the NFL though. I do see that it says on a few sites that State opened at -2, but a .5 point move does not qualify as a RLM move anyway. It has to be at least 1 point and preferably -1.5 to -2, and with the line being so small, it's negligible for this game anyway.

Vegas only has to win 47.62% of the time with a juice of 10% to break even. To be a consistent winner at -110 you would have to win 53.48% of the time as a player. Considering most people have a hard to winning at better than a 50% clip, that would put Vegas having an edge 2.48% of the time. Considering billions upon billions are wagered all the time, that makes a nice profit. This is outside all other things in Vegas.

Here's a stat.... Sports fans bet a record $98.9 million at Nevada casinos on Super Bowl XLVII, according to the American Gaming Association. After paying out to bettors, Nevada sports books earned $7.2 million on 2013’s game. That's more than 7% profit, but that's just the Super Bowl.

Another stat, According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, $3.2 billion was wagered in sports bets in the state’s casinos in 2011.
Assuming 2.48% profit, that's $79 million in profit. If you take that number to say 5%, that's about $160 million.

Here's the last stat, Gross revenue for Nevada’s sports books was $170.0 million in 2012. While more than $3.45 billion was wagered in 2012, more than 95 percent of all bets placed were returned to patrons in winnings.
This stat says "Revenue", which is not profit. So how much of the remaining 5% is profit. That's what we don't know.

I'm not quite sure what we are discussing anymore, but I just wanted to clear up my post and post some stats. I hope that helps.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2013, 04:47:57 pm by nughaud »
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5687 on: November 21, 2013, 04:46:14 pm »

When I was saying Vegas loses a lot, I'm speaking of individual games, not over the course of a year.

I have conflicting info that Arkansas opened early at +2 and that line has moved. If that's the case, which I believe, then it's not a RLM. For those that aren't aware, RLM is when a team which is not the public play gains points. In this case, Arkansas which is not a public play lost points. RL is only a tool, but it's only used in conjunction when a dog gets points. i.e. If say the line opened as State -1, and then it moved to Arkansas -1, since only 25% of the bets are on Arkansas. That would tend to indicate that the sharp money is on Arkansas, but sometimes it's a fake and then late money comes on the favorite. It's just a tool and should be used as another point to do so. So, that would be an example of a RLM play. In college they aren't used a much as in the NFL though. I do see that it says on a few sites that State opened at -2, but a .5 point move does not qualify as a RLM move anyway. It has to be at least 1 point and preferably -1.5 to -2, and with the line being so small, it's negligible for this game anyway.

Vegas only has to win 47.62% of the time with a juice of 10% to break even. To be a consistent winner at -110 you would have to win 53.48% of the time as a player. Considering most people have a hard to winning at better than a 50% clip, that would put Vegas having an edge 2.48% of the time. Considering billions upon billions are wagered all the time, that makes a nice profit. This is outside all other things in Vegas.

Here's a stat.... Sports fans bet a record $98.9 million at Nevada casinos on Super Bowl XLVII, according to the American Gaming Association. After paying out to bettors, Nevada sports books earned $7.2 million on 2013’s game. That's more than 7% profit, but that's just the Super Bowl.

Another stat, According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, $3.2 billion was wagered in sports bets in the state’s casinos in 2011.
Assuming 2.48% profit, that's $79 million in profit. If you take that number to say 5%, that's about $160 million.

Here's the last stat, Gross revenue for Nevada’s sports books was $170.0 million in 2012. While more than $3.45 billion was wagered in 2012, more than 95 percent of all bets placed were returned to patrons in winnings.

So it looks like Vegas makes 5%, give or take, which means that they win just at a 2.5%, which means that they could literally break even at 50% win/loss rate, due to the juice. That's just the numbers. The hard part is to win, and most pros win at 54% to 56%, which allows them to profit due to the juice.

I'm not quite sure what we are discussing anymore, but I just wanted to clear up my post and post some stats. I hope that helps.

Haha I got you. Honestly, I should have known better to deem that Arkansas movement RLM. Because you're right about a half point not necessarily being able to justify it. I've never heard of the dog aspect of it that you mentioned, but the way you explained it, it makes sense.
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5688 on: November 21, 2013, 04:49:06 pm »

lol, you are right though, if it was a -2 for Miss St and let's say it moved to Arkansas of -1 or more it would be technically considered RLM.  =)

My head hurts now.. I need to get some asprin. Thanks!
Logged

Hawgndaaz

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8,424
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5689 on: November 21, 2013, 06:55:02 pm »

Saints -7
Saints 1h -4

1.5 u on both
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5690 on: November 21, 2013, 07:01:54 pm »

Saints -7
Saints 1h -4

1.5 u on both

The best lines available are -7.5 and -4.5, otherwise everything else is -8 and -5

You guys have to post the lines that are available. Maybe some of you are getting something local, but some of these lines just aren't available at any major book.
Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5691 on: November 21, 2013, 07:47:49 pm »

Got 2 in game lines tonight

Rutgers +28.5
Rutgers v UCF o61.5

Playing UNLV +1.5 and the under 58.5 in that game. All 4 bets were 1*

Sitting at 4-2 on the week after 2-0 last night.

Here's some I like, and ill have more on the weekend tomorrow. G/L to everyone.
Duke -4.5 2*
Duke -5.5 1*
BG -24 1*
Michigan +6 1*
Miami and Vandy are leans, and I'm liking Texas A&M also.




Here are the basketball picks for tonight. Went 1-3 last night for a 3-5 record on the week.

Idaho +7.5
Texas Tech -7
Wisconsin -22
Western Kentucky -8
Clemson -4.5
LA Clippers +5.5
Clippers v OKC Thunder u212

Logged

WILL CLINTON

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 7,775
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5692 on: November 21, 2013, 09:09:34 pm »

Added

2h NO -6  1*
UNLV -7.5 1* in-game line
UNLV v Air Force o61.5  1*
Logged

nughaud

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 874
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5693 on: November 22, 2013, 02:27:50 am »

Here's my picks so far... might add a couple more.

@ UCLA +3 -115 BM vs AZ St.  (It's -2.5 -110 everywhere else. UCLA dog @ home with points? You kidding me?)
Duke -4.5 @ Wake Forest (I'm not sure why this line is coming down, except Duke is coming off big win against Miami)
Miss St -1.5 -108 Heritage @ Arkansas (State is the better team, closer to 8-10 points better. Until QB and DEF get better. State needs to win out to be bowl eligible. The one unknown is who is going to start @ QB for State, as their 2 starters are banged up and listed day to day.)
Vanderbilt +3 SB @ Tenn (Yes, Tenner is good @ home, but Vanderbilt is the better team and +3 is still out there)
Missouri -2.5 BM -110 /Heritage -108 @ Ole Miss (Missouri, needs to win out to win their division, and Franklin is supposed to play)

I hate mid-week games but I think NIU @ -2.5 @ Toledo is the pick. They have something to prove and want a BCS game. The only way that's possible is if they win out. It's a tough game, no doubt there, but I think they are the slight favorite, just as the line shows.



1-0 NIU -2.5 Wed College Game

Also adding
NFL
Denver -2 (-108) or -2 1/2 @ NE  - ML is -130 if you want to not worry about a -1 or -2 pt game. NE is banged up all over, they should not be able to contain all of the Denver weapons. They have numerous rookies in the secondary and Talib hurt himself last game. Mayo, their MLB has been out most of the year and their offensive weapons are basically Brady, Gronk and Vereen, who just back for his 2nd game after missing most of the year with a wrist injury.

College
Houston -3 (-103) Heritage @ Houston
Logged

MuskogeeHogFan

  • Global Moderator
  • Gold Hogvillian
  • *********
  • Online Online
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 39,645
  • Nadine Coyle shakin it for the Hogs!!!!
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5694 on: November 22, 2013, 07:30:39 am »

Just thought I would run these by you guys for your opinions.

Baylor (-9) @ Okla State  O/U-78               Baylor -9

Oklahoma @ K-State (-4) O/U-54               Over

Texas A&M @ LSU (-4)     O/U-72              A&M +4

Missouri (-3) @ Ole Miss   O/U-58               Missouri -3

Nebraska @ Penn State (-2) O/U-50            Nebraska +2

Michigan St (-7) @ Northwestern O/U-41.5   Mich St -7

Your thoughts?
Logged

DadVader1

  • Senior
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 769
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5695 on: November 22, 2013, 09:31:06 am »

The only one of those games that stood out on the spreadsheets was Neb +2 @ Penn St.  It falls into several very nice trends and almost made my final cut.  It was a close call deciding between Neb. & Mich, and there is an outside chance that I might add Neb before the weekend is over.  I went with Mich, in part, because I expect this Senior Day at Penn St. to be a bigger deal than usual, not to mention that they're also honoring a few Juniors who have indicated that they're declaring for the draft and won't be back next year.  I still think Neb covers, but the added emotion was enough of an unknown for me to go with the other pick.
Logged

Hawgndaaz

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 8,424
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5696 on: November 22, 2013, 04:24:10 pm »

The best lines available are -7.5 and -4.5, otherwise everything else is -8 and -5

You guys have to post the lines that are available. Maybe some of you are getting something local, but some of these lines just aren't available at any major book.

bought it to -7

my halftime was at -4

sorry dude
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5697 on: November 22, 2013, 04:56:16 pm »

Saturday:

Hogs +1.5 *****
La. Tech +3.5 **
ISU -5 **
ECU -6 **
MI St. -7 *
KY +24.5 *

EDIT: My local hasn't had the Arkansas line up until just now, but didn't put up the ML. I posted all other plays when I made them. Took the +1.5 though instead of the ML. Unit size didn't change.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2013, 06:42:29 pm by widespreadsooie »
Logged

widespreadsooie

  • All-American Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3,823
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5698 on: November 22, 2013, 05:40:13 pm »

Iowa -6.5 **
Logged

Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

  • Hall of Fame Hogvillian
  • *******
  • Offline Offline
  • Gender: Male
  • Posts: 9,961
  • Come to the Dark Side
Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5699 on: November 22, 2013, 07:08:03 pm »

The best lines available are -7.5 and -4.5, otherwise everything else is -8 and -5

You guys have to post the lines that are available. Maybe some of you are getting something local, but some of these lines just aren't available at any major book.

When I post a bet( and lost my share lately). I post how much I bet and the line I played.

I don't care what online offshore lines show.  I rarely play a site. I will promise that I can always get a better line than you will from the internet.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 111 112 113 [114] 115 116 117 ... 224   Go Up
 

KARK
KWNA
Fox 16 Arkansas