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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 342446 times)

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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5600 on: November 14, 2013, 08:01:48 pm »

Man, NC St has been pretty awful lately

I agree, just looking at a few things and they are better than they look on paper, that's for sure.
 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5601 on: November 14, 2013, 09:11:37 pm »

Thanks Jeff,

Yeah I understand your reasoning for not posting all the time, your contacts etc. It's just nice sometimes to see some people's leans on games which I might have overlooked.

Just say out of MMQB... I learned long ago, the internet and arguing just don't mix. =) It's easier said than done though.
On a new note, Heritage actually added "Live" wagering.. not sure when it was added, but it was sometime in the last couple of weeks if not days.

Dunno what Heritage is? Online site?
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5602 on: November 14, 2013, 10:14:04 pm »

Dunno what Heritage is? Online site?

Yeah, I have about 6 I use, but mainly 3, to include Heritage, BM and 5Dimes. Heritage goes invite only sometimes for US customers. It might be right now, not sure.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5603 on: November 15, 2013, 07:12:31 am »

Yeah, I have about 6 I use, but mainly 3, to include Heritage, BM and 5Dimes. Heritage goes invite only sometimes for US customers. It might be right now, not sure.

Gotcha.  I don't do much online, but will keep that in mind.

I'm looking forward to online poker being legal here again.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5604 on: November 15, 2013, 12:17:34 pm »

I'm still tinkering with adding VBA code to Excel macros to run loops to test large numbers of different scenarios and trying to figure out which results are worthwhile.  I ran around a half million scenarios last night (with just a few mouse clicks) and found what looks like an improved pool of trends or groupings.  One that looks interesting is a group with 40 picks that has hit at 90% (36-4) on the season.  It's two picks for this weekend are Mich +3 and Houston +16.  Before you put too much weight on it, last week, a trend that had gone 20-0 beforehand went 1-2 on the weekend.  Still, it makes me feel better about those two plays.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5605 on: November 15, 2013, 01:21:22 pm »

Adding....

Ore St  +14, 1u
Sips  +3.5, 2u
USC  +4.5, 1u
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5606 on: November 15, 2013, 05:02:34 pm »

Picks I like for Sat.

BC -7.5 ***
S. Bama +7.5 **
UMASS +7 **
Bama -23.5 **
AUB -3.5 *
ORE -27.5 *
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5607 on: November 15, 2013, 05:42:37 pm »

I'm still tinkering with adding VBA code to Excel macros to run loops to test large numbers of different scenarios and trying to figure out which results are worthwhile.  I ran around a half million scenarios last night (with just a few mouse clicks) and found what looks like an improved pool of trends or groupings.  One that looks interesting is a group with 40 picks that has hit at 90% (36-4) on the season.  It's two picks for this weekend are Mich +3 and Houston +16.  Before you put too much weight on it, last week, a trend that had gone 20-0 beforehand went 1-2 on the weekend.  Still, it makes me feel better about those two plays.

You have to like Houston against an above avg Louisville team. This plays similar to the UCF game UL lost. Line is now +17.
This is a team that could beat UL, just hate that it's at home, but then again it would be closer to +13 or +13.5 if it was a home game for UH.

All the projections I use show Michigan winning or that it's closer to a pick'em, which puts the play on Michigan +3.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2013, 06:13:15 pm by nughaud »
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5608 on: November 15, 2013, 05:47:49 pm »

Gotcha.  I don't do much online, but will keep that in mind.

I'm looking forward to online poker being legal here again.

I'm just the opposite. All of my plays are online.  It's always nice to start the year with a matching FP or cash bonus equal to your deposit. BM consistently has the best lines, and it seems for dogs, SB has 1/2 advantage more often than not. It's nice to be able to search across all books, although it takes time and $ of course, but sometimes you can see as much as a 2 point spread on certain games (rare). Usually it's no more than 1.5, but we know how much that 1/2 pt makes, especially when moving off the key #s and 1/2 pt is easily available when you have more books at your disposal. 

A live example as of right now 6:15pm CST. Vanderbilt -11 @ BM and -13 @ SB dot com.
« Last Edit: November 15, 2013, 06:19:27 pm by nughaud »
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nughaud

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« Last Edit: November 17, 2013, 02:23:55 am by nughaud »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5610 on: November 15, 2013, 07:16:53 pm »

Thanks Nug!  I eventually need to move some $ from my bookmaker account back to 5Dimes and possibly open one more.  I'm probably also going to take a friend up on his offer of an introduction to a local source, in hopes that the local lines might move at a different pace than the online/offshore ones.  I like the idea of getting to shop around for the best lines after you make your final cuts.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5611 on: November 15, 2013, 07:55:10 pm »

Thanks Nug!  I eventually need to move some $ from my bookmaker account back to 5Dimes and possibly open one more.  I'm probably also going to take a friend up on his offer of an introduction to a local source, in hopes that the local lines might move at a different pace than the online/offshore ones.  I like the idea of getting to shop around for the best lines after you make your final cuts.

Yep, I've never had to deal with anyone locally. I'm sure it has it's up and downs, which I'd rather not have to deal with. I know online is not 100%, but you have to pick and choose.

The one thing I say that puts Heritage above others in one regard is the ability to parlay college/nfl and then you can buy pts up or down  on a team within the parlay or choose ML.  I'm talking 7-13.5 points, not the normal .5/1. I know there are probably other books you can do that at, but I don't have them in my roll.

Like I said before, the biggest benefit I see, is the initial reload for football. I received numerous 50-100% reloads, which is fantastic. I doubt you can get that with a local, but maybe you get better juice.  Plus some books allow you to pick a lower juice as a benefit instead of a bonus, which some people enjoy more. Another aspect is you have to manage your roll across all books. Sometimes you might take slightly higher juice, just so you don't get your balance too low in a book.

Now, let's get this west coast football game on. I just need something to watch. Tired of watching FS1/ESPN.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5612 on: November 15, 2013, 08:54:34 pm »

I'm just the opposite. All of my plays are online.  It's always nice to start the year with a matching FP or cash bonus equal to your deposit. BM consistently has the best lines, and it seems for dogs, SB has 1/2 advantage more often than not. It's nice to be able to search across all books, although it takes time and $ of course, but sometimes you can see as much as a 2 point spread on certain games (rare). Usually it's no more than 1.5, but we know how much that 1/2 pt makes, especially when moving off the key #s and 1/2 pt is easily available when you have more books at your disposal. 

A live example as of right now 6:15pm CST. Vanderbilt -11 @ BM and -13 @ SB dot com.

Totally makes sense for some , but simply doesn't work well for me.  I have list thousands with online sites because the either vanished or were shut down.  Locally be it here or another state I get paid in full every Wednesday .  Don't have to worry about lag times.

Online when they take your deposit it's immediate. Your payout rarely so.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5613 on: November 16, 2013, 02:13:49 am »

Totally makes sense for some , but simply doesn't work well for me.  I have list thousands with online sites because the either vanished or were shut down.  Locally be it here or another state I get paid in full every Wednesday .  Don't have to worry about lag times.

Online when they take your deposit it's immediate. Your payout rarely so.

Yep, I agree... I will say that the online nature of wagering is maturing, especially with the belief that one day it will be more regulated and of course "Taxed" in the USA. When that day will come though who knows. The payouts are a downside, I totally agree.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5614 on: November 16, 2013, 06:34:35 am »

Wow I thought that Huskies pick last night was an easy winner.  Unfortunately when the starting QB gets knocked out it generally spells trouble.

Gotta give them credit though. They hung in. One more TD would have given me the cover there.  Oh well. 

Good luck to everyone today.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5615 on: November 16, 2013, 07:28:26 am »

Wow I thought that Huskies pick last night was an easy winner.  Unfortunately when the starting QB gets knocked out it generally spells trouble.

Gotta give them credit though. They hung in. One more TD would have given me the cover there.  Oh well. 

Good luck to everyone today.
I had that one on my ticket last night as well...4 unit bet. Ya when the qb got knocked out I knew I was screwed.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5616 on: November 16, 2013, 08:51:22 am »

I had that one on my ticket last night as well...4 unit bet. Ya when the qb got knocked out I knew I was screwed.

We had 8 minutes in the fourth for them to score one more TD and give us the back door cover, but oh well.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5617 on: November 16, 2013, 08:58:50 am »

Pitt pickem / 3 units
Michigan +3.5 / 3 units
Already posted canes as a dime play
San Diego St -4 / 3 units
Colorado st -6 / 3 units
Bama -23.5 / 5 units
Illinois +34 / 5 units
Purdue +21.5 / 3 units
Auburn -3 / 3 units
Mich St -6 / 5 units.
South Carolina -12 / 5 units

Huge card for me today!



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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5618 on: November 16, 2013, 11:37:11 am »

Looks like I went full retard taking Illinois !
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5619 on: November 16, 2013, 01:22:05 pm »

Illinois +28.5 in game line  1*
Illini va OSU under 84.5   1*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5620 on: November 16, 2013, 01:51:34 pm »

SC -14  3*
Miss St +24  1*
Houston +17  2*
Duke +4  1*
TT v Baylor o84  1*
Cuse +37  1*
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5621 on: November 16, 2013, 02:35:09 pm »

Updates from picks posted earlier:

(W) Central Michigan -2.5 @ Western Michigan [Final Score 27-22]
Stanford -4 @ USC (Line opened at -3 and is now at -4, I can see this line continuing to move maybe to -5.5) (Line is now -3.5)
N.C. State +7.5 @ Boston College (Remember Brandon Mitchell, well he's been back for a few games and they are a better team)
Houston +16 @ Louisville. (Line should come back down, but could hit +16.5 first. +17 would be a gift) (Line is +17 Now)
(W) Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Kentucky (Vandy is a much better team and this line should be closer to -17) [Final Score 22-6]

Adding: (Auburn game 30 minutes before game)
Auburn -3 vs Georgia (Gotta believe the Tigers are for real. Should be a high scoring affair.)
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh -2.5 (D-Line, and offensive too much for Pitt, who has no defensive line to pressure the QB, and let's not forget Reggie Bush)

Updated with Vanderbilt and Central Michigan game.
« Last Edit: November 16, 2013, 03:34:19 pm by nughaud »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5622 on: November 16, 2013, 03:04:58 pm »

Added

Oregon -30  1*
Cal +1.5  1*
Georgia +5.5  (in-game line so no buying the hook...arghhh)  2*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5623 on: November 16, 2013, 03:32:27 pm »

Just got these

Georgia +12.5  1*
Syracuse +52.5  1*
Syracuse +56.5  1*
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5624 on: November 16, 2013, 03:35:21 pm »

Just got these

Georgia +12.5  1*
Syracuse +52.5  1*


Where are you wagering in-game?
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5625 on: November 16, 2013, 03:42:32 pm »

sportsbook
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5626 on: November 16, 2013, 04:49:43 pm »

You would think I would learn betting against FSU and these HUGE ASS spreads. Can't believe I'm going to lose a +56.5, and a +52.5 bet. WOW.

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5627 on: November 16, 2013, 05:00:30 pm »

Already some L's

Syracuse +52.5  1*
Cuse +37  1*
Illini va OSU under 84.5   1*

2-3 thanks to that FG in the 4th from Syracuse, with 9 left. oy vey..
« Last Edit: November 16, 2013, 05:48:39 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5628 on: November 16, 2013, 05:59:55 pm »

added

Mich St +12.5 in game  1*
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5629 on: November 16, 2013, 06:41:52 pm »

Wow, that Auburn game was insane. 3-0 so far. =) lol
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5630 on: November 16, 2013, 06:44:34 pm »

Updates from picks posted earlier:

(W) Central Michigan -2.5 @ Western Michigan [Final Score 27-22]
(L) Stanford -4 @ USC (Line opened at -3 and is now at -4, I can see this line continuing to move maybe to -5.5) (Line is now -3.5)
(L) N.C. State +7.5 @ Boston College (Remember Brandon Mitchell, well he's been back for a few games and they are a better team)  [Final Score 38-21]
(W) Houston +16 @ Louisville. (Line should come back down, but could hit +16.5 first. +17 would be a gift) (Line is +17 Now)
(W) Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Kentucky (Vandy is a much better team and this line should be closer to -17) [Final Score 22-6]

Adding: (Auburn game 30 minutes before game)
(W) Auburn -3 vs Georgia (Gotta believe the Tigers are for real. Should be a high scoring affair.) [Final Score 43-38]
Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh -2.5 (D-Line, and offensive too much for Pitt, who has no defensive line to pressure the QB, and let's not forget Reggie Bush)

Updated with Vanderbilt, Central Michigan, Auburn, NC St Game, Houston and Stanford.

That Auburn game was... WOW and the ending of the UCF game was the same. One handed catch to tie it up, then another 70 yard or so pass after the stop to kick a FG for the win.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2013, 02:19:24 am by nughaud »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5631 on: November 16, 2013, 06:52:36 pm »

glad I waited on the Georgia in game line instead of taking +3.

Just added in game lines of

SC -7.5  1*
SC -9.5  1*
Baylor -13.5  1*

May have just screwed myself with SC. Clowney and the 2nd team DE goes out on back to back plays...Wonder how much Clowney has on the game?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5632 on: November 16, 2013, 07:39:53 pm »

added

Mich St +12.5 in game  1*

Why would Mich st ever be +12.5?
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5633 on: November 16, 2013, 08:08:33 pm »

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hollywood hog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5634 on: November 16, 2013, 10:07:22 pm »

Talk about an Alabama boning. That shoulda been a typical 42-0 bama win
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5635 on: November 16, 2013, 11:09:33 pm »

Very good weekend!  One of these days, I'm going to learn to get out of my own way and quit dragging my record down with random crap.  I went 5-0 on my picks and 6-0 on my 2-team parlays, but tailing those two trends turned a personal record weekend into "just" a very good one.  No complaints.  I went 6-3 ATS for +20 units (before juice) and 6-0 on parlays for +19.25 units (after juice) for a +39.25 unit weekend.  That puts me at 55-33-3 (62.5%) ATS and 35-16 (69%) on parlays for +101.65 units on the season.  I've more than tripled my bankroll so far this season, so I'm going to make an "accounting adjustment" and double my unit size.  With that adjustment, that means I'll be up +50.8 units on the season (101.65/2).  I actually made that adjustment to my plays a few weeks back but haven't and won't claim credit for those increased winnings in my posted record.

Here's how it played out:

FAU -16.5 @ S. Miss  5 units   W
Houston +15.5 @ Louisville  5 units  W
Mich +3 @ Northwestern  5 units   W
Colo St. -6.5 @ N. Mex  5 units   W
Ark St. -6.5 v. TX St.  5 units   W

I added the following to tail the rest of the picks in the two trends mentioned above:

W. VA -6.5 @ Kan  2.5 units  L
Stanford -3 @ USC  2.5 units   L
Purdue +21.5 @ Penn St.  2.5 units   L
C. Mich -3 @ W. Mich  2.5 units   W

To wrap it up, I did 2-team parlays for a total of 7.5 units boxing:
Houston +15.5   W
Mich +3   W
FAU -16.5   W
Colo St. -6.5   W
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5636 on: November 17, 2013, 10:21:37 am »

Atl + 1   3 units

Bills +2    1 unit   

Will post lasy play around 2:30

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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5637 on: November 17, 2013, 10:42:13 am »

PHIL(-4.5) 2 units
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5638 on: November 17, 2013, 11:16:19 am »

Actual do not see one game I like today. May be a good thing.
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5639 on: November 17, 2013, 01:40:45 pm »

It's amazing how fast the Falcons have fallen off the cliff.
This will end up being a 2+ hour delay for the Bears game.. fun lol.
The wind up north is messing with numerous teams besides the Bears/Ravens.
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5640 on: November 17, 2013, 01:48:30 pm »

Actual do not see one game I like today. May be a good thing.

NO (-3) or whatever it's at now is free money
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5641 on: November 17, 2013, 02:00:46 pm »

NO (-3) or whatever it's at now is free money

You'd think... Saints are $ @ home and CK, hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards since the 1st game of the year when he went over 400 against the Packers.  If the Saints can stop the run game, they should win. I know the Superdome will be a rockin!

Line is -3.5 (+102) or -3 (-120)
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5642 on: November 17, 2013, 02:05:56 pm »

You'd think... Saints are $ @ home and CK, hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards since the 1st game of the year when he went over 400 against the Packers.  If the Saints can stop the run game, they should win. I know the Superdome will be a rockin!

Niners secondary sucks.  Krapernick can only stare down his first option, Vernon Davis.  Saints defense is better this year so that won't matter.  Greg Roman will probably try to get cute with the read option again.  Brees will have a field day.  Saints by 2TDs and maybe more
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5643 on: November 17, 2013, 02:33:36 pm »

San Fran 3 units

Green Bay 2 units
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5644 on: November 17, 2013, 02:46:04 pm »

Miami +3
Miami v San Diego under
San Fran +3.5
San Fran v NO under
NY -4
Minny +12
Minny v Seattle under
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5645 on: November 17, 2013, 03:14:28 pm »

Hogs +2 this coming Saturday. We win straight up. Easy cash.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5646 on: November 17, 2013, 03:53:18 pm »

Overall, not a great week, but I've had wayyyy worse, even this year. Down from 39 picks to only 26 this week.

Ohio over 52.5  1*  L -$24
Buffalo +9.5 (another in-game line that I couldn't buy a hook on)  1*  L -$24
Buffalo +4.5  1*  L -$24
Bowling Green -9.5  1*  W +$22
Ball St +9  1*  L -$24
Ball St v NIU under 73.5  1*   L -$24
Miami Ohio +18.5  1*  W +$22
Miami Ohio v Kent St under 48.5  1*  W +$22
Illinois +28.5 in game line  1*  W +$22
Illini va OSU under 84.5   1*  L -$24
SC -14  3*  L -$98
Miss St +24  1*  W +$22
Houston +17  2*  W +$45
Duke +4  1*  W +$22
TT v Baylor o84  1*  W +$22
Cuse +37  1*  L -$24
Oregon -30  1*  L -$24
Cal +1.5  1*  L -$24
Georgia +5.5  (in-game line so no buying the hook...arghhh)  2*  W +$45
Georgia +12.5  1*  W +$22
Syracuse +52.5  1*  L -$24
Syracuse +56.5  1*  W +$22
SC -7.5  1*  L -$24
SC -9.5  1*  L -$24
Baylor -13.5  1*  W +$22
Mich St +12.5 in game  1*  W +$22


Weely Record:
13-13  50%  -$51

Overall Record:
90-97-7 (48%)  $398  -89% ROI
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5647 on: November 17, 2013, 05:31:08 pm »

PHIL(-4.5) 2 units

Had to sweat my one play.
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Bellhog63

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5648 on: November 17, 2013, 06:31:20 pm »

Denver in a blow out tonight. Plus the over will be a good get. 45-24
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5649 on: November 17, 2013, 06:32:57 pm »

Well Niners game is going to push when the Saints win by 3.  A little surprised Bree's and company couldn't finish those losers off any better
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