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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 331489 times)

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5500 on: November 02, 2013, 11:40:02 am »

Plays today so far

VTech -4
UMass +28 (went the opposite way than my initial lean, almost always a bad idea)

both for 1*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5501 on: November 02, 2013, 12:09:31 pm »

Okie St is now at -1 and is a MONSTER need from the bookie on therx. He is batting a ridiculous percentage on the MONSTER needs this year, so I'm thinking of dropping some coin because this is also Jeff's dime play today, so thats 2 pros and not a con I can think of yet.

Added:

Ok St -1 3* 
MTSU o63.5 1*
Indiana -7.5  1*
Arizona -14.5  1*
Mich St -4  1*
Miami +21  2*
UCLA -29  1*

Laying off Ga Tech.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5502 on: November 02, 2013, 12:43:27 pm »

Adding Navy Notre Dame under 50 / dime play

Utep Tx gay & M under 77.5 / dime play

I am now officially done for the day win lose or draw!
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5503 on: November 02, 2013, 12:45:46 pm »

Added

2h VTech -.5  1*
2h Temple +7  1*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5504 on: November 02, 2013, 02:17:14 pm »

staring down the barrell of 0-5 to start the day. Should've listened to myself about N Illini and UMass.
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5505 on: November 02, 2013, 02:27:05 pm »

Sweet.  OT with Penn St./Illinois ensures my +10 play on the Illini pays out.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5506 on: November 02, 2013, 02:39:49 pm »

went ahead and got Ga Tech -11  1*
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5507 on: November 02, 2013, 02:42:29 pm »

GT plays always make me nervous, but I like them against PITT too.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5508 on: November 02, 2013, 02:52:01 pm »

tailing Jeff on his ND u50  1*

also got a ND u53.5 in game line  1*
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5509 on: November 02, 2013, 02:53:59 pm »

First play since my dime win over a month ago.

I'm taking Aub/Ark over 55 for 2 units.

I see that the live line has gone back to Aub -8.5
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5510 on: November 02, 2013, 02:55:39 pm »

Sweet.  OT with Penn St./Illinois ensures my +10 play on the Illini pays out.
Not always a guarantee.  There are cases where it didn't.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5511 on: November 02, 2013, 04:44:13 pm »

Kiss of death! Just took the Hogs at +9.
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5512 on: November 02, 2013, 06:42:45 pm »

Not always a guarantee.  There are cases where it didn't.

I don't see how a team could win by more than 8 points in an OT game. 
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5513 on: November 02, 2013, 08:28:08 pm »

What a day. I'm taking a bath.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5514 on: November 02, 2013, 11:08:21 pm »

GREAT call on your dime plays Jeff!  YOU da Man!

I was sweating it after a slow start on Thurs, but I avoided a week-3 skid and had a good weekend despite a 1-2 start on Thursday.  I ended up going 4-2-1 ATS for +10 units before juice and 6-0 on parlays for +7.4 units after juice (with one push and a few hooks) for a +17.4 weekend.  That puts me at 45-27-3 ATS (63%) and 26-10 on parlays (72%) for +58.1 units on the season. 

Aub -8    W 5 units
Houston -18  L 5 units
Minn. +10  W 5 units
Mizz -9.5  W 5 units
Rice +4.5 L 5 units
AZ St. -11.5 W 5 units
MdTNSt -3 Push

2-team parlays:
Aub -7  W
Minn +8  W
MO -9.5  W
MTSU -3  Push
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5515 on: November 02, 2013, 11:11:35 pm »

I don't see how a team could win by more than 8 points in an OT game. 

in college, Team A scores first.
Then when they go on defense they get a pick 6.

It has happened.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5516 on: November 03, 2013, 02:41:44 pm »

I'm chasing lost money from yesterday on NFL today. I tailed all these.

Pitt +6
Philly +1.5
Cleveland +2
Tampa +16.5
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5517 on: November 03, 2013, 06:13:06 pm »

These large double digit dogs are money in the NFL.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5518 on: November 03, 2013, 07:37:29 pm »

Damn you Pitt. looking hard at colts v texans. have good info for both sides, and the over, and the under. hard to make decisions.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5519 on: November 04, 2013, 12:00:03 pm »

Well gentlemen, I'm done with CFB until bowl season. Took it on the chin last week, good. I'll still be posting plays for fun, but there won't be any real money involved. I'll be sure to reiterate that when plays are posted. I have a little bank roll left, but want to sit on it while I can build it back up to where it needs to be for bowl and early CBB action. I'll get around to updating my records by tomorrow evening.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5520 on: November 04, 2013, 12:47:33 pm »

Sorry to hear that Widespread!  It looks like last weekend was indeed a "correction" weekend.  The rating system that had been hitting at 58% for the season hit in the 30's and several of the systems that had been hitting at around 55% for the season hit in the low 40's.  Hopefully, last weekend was just one of those hiccups that you get once every few/several weeks, and we'll get back to more predictable results next weekend.
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Hillbilly Hawg

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5521 on: November 05, 2013, 02:36:24 pm »

Bump
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5522 on: November 05, 2013, 02:44:32 pm »

played zero NFL games this week. finished down 4 units on dumb west coast game bets late Saturday after too many spirits.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5523 on: November 05, 2013, 05:41:31 pm »

I never thought I'd say this, but thank God for the NFL. Really bailed me out big time. I hit 3-1 on those, and multiple parlays involving those 4 teams, so it saved me from a negative weekend.

Otherwise, I have to stop playing so many games. I say the same thing every year, and every year I see something on a website or get a text or something that completely makes me forget about it. Oh well.

Bad week last week, but this week could and should be a bounce back weekend. G/L to everyone.

ND u53.5  1*  L -$26
ND u50  1*  L -$26
Ga Tech -11  1*  Push
2h VTech -.5  1*  L -$26
2h Temple +7  1*  L -$26
Ok St -1 3*  W +$97
MTSU o63.5 1* L -$26
Indiana -7.5  1*   L -$26
Arizona -14.5  1*  L -$26
Mich St -4  1*  W +$24
Miami +21  2*  L -$52
UCLA -29  1*  L -$26
VTech -4  1*  L -$26
UMass +28  1*  L -$26
Or St -3.5 2*  L -$52
USC +7 1*  W +$24
USC v Or St under 52.5  1*  W +$24
Arizona St -11  1*  W +$24
Arizona over 71  1*  W +$24
2half Houston -8.5 1*  L -$26
2half Rice -1.5  1*  L -$26

Weekly Record:
6-14-1 (30%)

Overall Record:
53-70-6 (43%)  $286  -90% ROI
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5524 on: November 05, 2013, 05:57:00 pm »

And just like that, I'm already on 3 for tonight

BG ov 48  1*
Buffalo -4  2*
Buffalo u54  1*

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5525 on: November 05, 2013, 10:44:19 pm »

FINALLY...a great start to the week.

3-0 and it's only Tuesday. Celebrate the small victories.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5526 on: November 06, 2013, 09:04:07 am »

YES!  Congrats.  I'm still waiting on a few more rating systems to post their data.  One early lean is AZ St. -7 @ Utah.  I hope to have more to post by this evening.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5527 on: November 06, 2013, 09:20:11 am »

FINALLY...a great start to the week.

3-0 and it's only Tuesday. Celebrate the small victories.

I know its frowned upon, but I tailed all 3 of your bets and didn't post it. thanks regardless!
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5528 on: November 06, 2013, 12:29:23 pm »

I know its frowned upon, but I tailed all 3 of your bets and didn't post it. thanks regardless!

don't worry, all 3 of mine were gleaned from different people on a few different websites I read. I usually just get my leans and then compare with what other people are doing. If 2 or 3 of the people I follow are on them with me, I bet. If too many people are on them with me, I may reduce the bet or slack off completely.

Feel free to tail me anytime. The goal is for everyone to make money. The only people I want to "beat" are the bookies.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5529 on: November 06, 2013, 02:30:17 pm »

I just meant I didn't post beforehand that I was going with the same
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5530 on: November 06, 2013, 04:36:21 pm »

I just meant I didn't post beforehand that I was going with the same

Oh. reading hasn't been my strong suit this week
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5531 on: November 06, 2013, 06:25:45 pm »

goind for the unheard of 5-0 to start the week by adding the following

CMU +21
CMU under 58
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5532 on: November 06, 2013, 07:02:20 pm »

well crud i took BSU -20.5

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5533 on: November 06, 2013, 09:43:50 pm »

I'm still waiting on one key rating system that is later than usual in posting its data, but my leans at this point are:

Utah St. -13.5 @ UNLV
AZ St. -7 @ Utah
TX -6 @ W. VA
Fresno St. -9 @ Wyoming
MO -14 @ Kentucky

The spreadsheets are also leaning Hawaii +17 @ Navy, but I'll probably skip that one because that has to be a LONG trip for Hawaii traveling to the East Coast, and I seriously doubt that rating systems try to take that into account.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2013, 10:00:57 pm by DadVader1 »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5534 on: November 06, 2013, 10:34:21 pm »

well crud i took BSU -20.5



Hope you bought the hook bro. I pushed on one site, and won the other. 4-1 isn't too shabby though.

For tomorrow I'm tempted to go OU, but Im so unsure I don't now if I'd think of  that as more than a thought. I'm guess I'm joe public, but I'm hard core Oregon.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5535 on: November 07, 2013, 03:52:21 pm »

OU  +16.5  2u
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5536 on: November 07, 2013, 04:24:20 pm »

Here's what I've done so far, 5 units each on:

Utah St. -13.5
AZ St. -6.5
TX -6.5
Fresno -9.5
MO -13.5
OM -17 
USCw -16

Also have nine 2-team parlays on the following teams for a total of 4.5 units:
TX -6.5
Utah St. -13.5
AZ St. -6.5
MO -13.5
Fresno -9

The spreadsheets also liked Syracuse +5 (I passed because MD gets their QB back for this game), and Hawaii +17 (I passed because of the long trip from Hawaii to East Coast), and Colorado +28.  I almost played Colorado.  For my final cut, it came down to taking Colo & getting a lot of points or taking USC and giving points to Cal.  It was a close call, but giving points to Cal has been a good move this year, and USC just got back their star receiver (who had a nice game last week).
« Last Edit: November 07, 2013, 04:50:19 pm by DadVader1 »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5537 on: November 07, 2013, 04:42:41 pm »

The spreadsheets have gotten pretty massive and take a fair amount of time to update and search, so I've been learning how to use macros and VBA with Excel.  I'm pretty stoked that I had a breakthrough on some beginner VBA stuff that should save a LOT of time and help me review a LOT more combinations in search of favorable trends.  Instead of running a few thousand scenarios looking for favorable trends with plain vanilla Excel formulas and functions like I've been doing, in a week or two, I should be able to run a few hundred thousand scenarios in less time.  By next season, it might even creep up to around 1 million+ scenarios (in less time) in search of profitable trends.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5538 on: November 07, 2013, 04:51:13 pm »

Hope you bought the hook bro. I pushed on one site, and won the other. 4-1 isn't too shabby though.

For tomorrow I'm tempted to go OU, but Im so unsure I don't now if I'd think of  that as more than a thought. I'm guess I'm joe public, but I'm hard core Oregon.

I did not buy the hook. I usually ignore them unless they're a multiple of 7 once the spread is over 14. Of course the subs rattle off 14 points in the final quarter for the loss lol.

Tonight looks for some great games but who knows how the hell these teams perform? I will probably bet this three ways:

Teaser lowering both spreads and taking the favorites

Parlay both favorites

Take one or both overs.

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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5539 on: November 07, 2013, 04:57:06 pm »

Nov 07 CFB [110] BAYLOR -10½-110 (B+6) 
Nov 07 CFB [113] OREGON -4-110 (B+6)
2 unit teaser



STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [110] BAYLOR -16½-110  1.5U
STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [112] UL LAFAYETTE -13½-110  1.5U
STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [113] OREGON -10-110  55.00 USD / 50.00 USD 1U
STRAIGHT BET Nov 07 CFB [1113] 1H OREGON -6½-110  2U


All favorites tonight.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5540 on: November 07, 2013, 05:00:21 pm »

I'm not betting real money on these picks but I would wager 2u on:

Stan +10
OU +16.5
ORE/Stan u61.5

Also realized I haven't updated my record. I'll try to remember to do so tonight.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5541 on: November 07, 2013, 08:04:01 pm »

Oregon -10  1*
Oregon -11  1*
Oregon v Stanford u60  1*
Oregon v Stanford u61.5  1*

I added these because they are lines I've been studying and agonizing over this whole week. I instantly loved Oregon on Sunday -9.5 all the way up to about 14. I can't explain it, and maybe I'm the "non-sharp" that keep the bookies in action, but I can't go against my gut.

I'm thinking of jumping on OU/Baylor halftime.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5542 on: November 07, 2013, 08:31:28 pm »

Added:

Oregon -4 in game line  1*
2h Baylor -7  3*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5543 on: November 07, 2013, 09:07:58 pm »

Got a OU +30.5 in-game line  1*
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5544 on: November 07, 2013, 09:12:51 pm »

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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5545 on: November 07, 2013, 10:40:06 pm »

Got killed on all bets but baylor. Might have to shut it down after tonight as ill be down almost 40 units on the year. Oregons QB was exposed as  a fraud when he went against a pass rush and turned into brandon allen. Somehow the skins get beat by a  god awful Vikings squad. I cant pick a game if I had to.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5546 on: November 07, 2013, 10:46:01 pm »

YTD: 53-50 -3.5u less juice/ 51%
Totals: 18-20 47%
ATS: 34-25-1 58%
Parlay: 1-1
Teases: 0-4


This is what my regular season will end at. Rough week 10. Look forward to bowls and college basketball. Also hope y'all won't mind me posting plays with no money on them. I still really enjoy it for fun.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5547 on: November 07, 2013, 11:28:15 pm »

I was suckered into the Oregon hype. Can't believe they were beat that bad, because it was BAD. they were out-physicaled all game. Luckily that kept the score down so I hit both unders, and Baylor is legit. They could have scored 60 if they wanted, but they kept it within the 30.5 in game line I got.

So I finished 4-3 for tonight, but up 3* because of going heavy on Baylor. Already at 8-4 for the week. Degenerate doesn't begin to cover it.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5548 on: November 08, 2013, 09:57:47 am »

Keep posting your picks Widespread.  I doubt many will tail you on Totals, but you have a knack for picking ATS. 

Good start Will!  ... and yes, the D word comes to mind when you've already made 12 plays before Friday :) 

Last night was a good example of why I'm learning not to make plays based purely on my gut.  I trust my gut as a filter, but if I don't have some data or edge to back it up, with my handicapping skills (or lack thereof), I might as well flip a coin.  I bought into the Oregon & Baylor hype and thought both would roll.  Most of the pundits that I heard thought that Oregon was safe and Baylor was on upset alert.  Glad I passed on those games.
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DamonBoost

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5549 on: November 08, 2013, 12:27:21 pm »

Here's what I've done so far, 5 units each on:

Utah St. -13.5
AZ St. -6.5
TX -6.5
Fresno -9.5
MO -13.5
OM -17 
USCw -16

Also have nine 2-team parlays on the following teams for a total of 4.5 units:
TX -6.5
Utah St. -13.5
AZ St. -6.5
MO -13.5
Fresno -9

The spreadsheets also liked Syracuse +5 (I passed because MD gets their QB back for this game), and Hawaii +17 (I passed because of the long trip from Hawaii to East Coast), and Colorado +28.  I almost played Colorado.  For my final cut, it came down to taking Colo & getting a lot of points or taking USC and giving points to Cal.  It was a close call, but giving points to Cal has been a good move this year, and USC just got back their star receiver (who had a nice game last week).

Forgive me, I dont understand your parlays. 

How are you setting them up?  You list (9) 2-team parlays but only list 5 teams.  I don't get what the parlay "groups " are?  What are you actually betting?
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