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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340710 times)

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5450 on: October 30, 2013, 10:53:07 am »

You're welcome. Don't place too much weight on the raw data. My favorite rating system only hits at 58%, and the next few are just over 55%, so your record at picking ATS is much better than theirs.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5451 on: October 30, 2013, 10:59:36 am »

You're welcome. Don't place too much weight on the raw data. My favorite rating system only hits at 58%, and the next few are just over 55%, so your record at picking ATS is much better than theirs.

Noted. This is easily the best I've ever done ATS so I'm still working on some confidence, second guessing myself is something that's bitten me in the past so I always like to see your raw data. It's a shame totals have been killing me lately. Thought they were going to be my forte at the beginning of the year.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5452 on: October 30, 2013, 11:32:01 am »

It's a shame totals have been killing me lately. Thought they were going to be my forte at the beginning of the year.

After seeing you records of 62% ats and 50% totals, I was going to raise the question as to whether you might consider adjusting your strategies, kinda like me avoiding  the NFL and me "trying" to quit adding plays late in the week.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5453 on: October 30, 2013, 11:56:57 am »

After seeing you records of 62% ats and 50% totals, I was going to raise the question as to whether you might consider adjusting your strategies, kinda like me avoiding  the NFL and me "trying" to quit adding plays late in the week.

I'm beginning to consider it. I really like playing totals for some reason though. I've put myself under the impression teams are more consistent against totals than the spread, very well could be the opposite. We'll see how they go this week.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5454 on: October 30, 2013, 03:42:16 pm »

I got in enough data to finish my initial screening.  Here are my leans:

Aub -7.5
Houston -18
Minn. +10
Mizz -9.5
Rice +4.5
OK St. +3
AZ St. -11.5

I don't recall ever having 3 good weekends in a row, and this will be weekend number 3.  I'm hoping to break new ground here, but be forewarned that I'm due for a "correction." 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5455 on: October 30, 2013, 04:59:03 pm »

MEM/Cincy u45/ 3u

The reverse line movement on this game screams under, so I've been looking into some team stats for the past thirty minutes, and I really like it. Both teams play sound D, Memphis can't move the ball, both teams have the ability to eat up clock, prime time game on ESPN2. That's just the small bit I can think of off the top of the head.

Memphis- 16
Cincy- 13
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5456 on: October 30, 2013, 05:06:38 pm »

Took the day off yesterday, lets get back on track..

Memphis +2.5 (buy half point to +3) over Cincinnati (NCAA College Football) 4 star



St. Louis Cardinals / Boston Red Sox OVER 7 (Total Runs Scored in Game) (MLB Baseball) 2 star

Boston Red Sox -121 (moneyline) over the St. Louis Cardinals:  2 star, this pain me but got to bet with my head, not my heart...  Good things is red birds win then at least i will be happy!!

Toronto Raptors -8 over the Boston Celtics  (NBA Basketball) 3 star

As always guys, good luck!

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5457 on: October 31, 2013, 09:04:17 am »

Here's what I've done so far.  5 units each on:

Aub -8
Houston -18
Minn. +10
Mizz -9.5
Rice +4.5
AZ St. -11.5

I'm a bit concerned about rain expected for the Houston game, but they are a scoring machine and fall into a lot of very nice trends, so I'm sticking with them.  I'll probably add OK St. but, with 76% of the action on TX Tech, I'm holding off for a little longer, hoping for the line to move to +3 on bookmaker (or at least reduced juice to buy it to +3).
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5458 on: October 31, 2013, 09:25:58 am »

Anyone know the over/under for cramps by razorback defensive players this weekend? Should be entertaining watching theses coaches go at it. It's obvious there is no love lost between these two coaching staffs.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5459 on: October 31, 2013, 09:39:48 am »

Yes, it does have the look and feel of a pissing contest as dogs try to mark their territory, especially since the two groups include Arkansas ex-pats at Aub and a brash new coach who "ain't from around here."
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5460 on: October 31, 2013, 11:53:34 am »

Tonight I'm going with 2.5u on HOU -18.5 and 2u on Rice +3.5. Vader, remember rain can go both ways. Makes it much more difficult for defenses to move with traction, especially in man. Really pissed about that under last night. Tough luck on Memphis' last TD.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5461 on: October 31, 2013, 12:34:17 pm »

Good luck tonight!  I agree on the rain/defense thing.  When trying to predict an outcome, I just prefer fewer variables.  I figure there are a lot of folks out there who are MUCH better than I am at gauging the impact of things like bad weather or injuries.  Still, I like the Houston play.  It fell into a couple of different but overlapping trends that have gone 22-0 and 21-0 on the season.  I still don't have a high degree of confidence in those trends yet, but it fell into enough other nice trends for me to take a shot at it.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5462 on: October 31, 2013, 12:58:23 pm »

Good luck tonight!  I agree on the rain/defense thing.  When trying to predict an outcome, I just prefer fewer variables.  I figure there are a lot of folks out there who are MUCH better than I am at gauging the impact of things like bad weather or injuries.  Still, I like the Houston play.  It fell into a couple of different but overlapping trends that have gone 22-0 and 21-0 on the season.  I still don't have a high degree of confidence in those trends yet, but it fell into enough other nice trends for me to take a shot at it.

I just think the line is about 6-10 points off. Houston puts up points like nobody's business and USF is absolutely horrible all around. I see something like 38-14.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5463 on: October 31, 2013, 01:15:03 pm »

I hope & think you're right.  My favorite systems have it ranging from a 21 to 28 point spread.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5464 on: October 31, 2013, 04:25:06 pm »

I hope & think you're right.  My favorite systems have it ranging from a 21 to 28 point spread.

Up to 20!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5465 on: October 31, 2013, 04:26:25 pm »

I got Houston at 19 and Rice at +3, both 1.5 units. tailing you gents.

also going Bengals -2 at 4 units, per our friend from  ::hornsdown::
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5466 on: October 31, 2013, 04:34:16 pm »

Well crap!  70% of the action is on TX Tech, but reverse line movement is giving OK St. fewer points.  It's down to +2 OK St. now.  If it makes it back to +2.5, I'm buying the hook and taking it at +3.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5467 on: October 31, 2013, 04:56:59 pm »

Well crap!  70% of the action is on TX Tech, but reverse line movement is giving OK St. fewer points.  It's down to +2 OK St. now.  If it makes it back to +2.5, I'm buying the hook and taking it at +3.

Okie St. looks like the play. Love reverse line movement. It can sometimes give you a tip on the total too. That's what I was playing my under on for the most part last night but the RLM didn't hold true.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5468 on: October 31, 2013, 06:15:07 pm »

Bengals -2 / 5 units. 

Worst part is I hope they lose outright !
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5469 on: October 31, 2013, 07:47:34 pm »

Trick or treating made me miss Rice, but I got down on Arizona at -11 and over 71. Also 2half Houston -8.5.  Also 2half Rice -1.5 All 1*
« Last Edit: October 31, 2013, 08:51:36 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5470 on: October 31, 2013, 08:52:48 pm »

Stat of the night, USF had scored 6 TD's all year prior to this game. Scored 3 in this game.

I really haven't felt great about any of this week, at least not like last week. Hope I'm not setting myself up for a bad weekend.

I do feel good about Az St though, the west coast guy on therx posted his plays tonight and it was his first one. He also likes UCLA -28 v Colorado, but I'm not sure yet on that one.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5471 on: October 31, 2013, 09:32:04 pm »

79 for Rice has to be the worst O lineman in the nation. I'll never bet Rice again. This is the hardest to watch offense. I'm literally frustrated out of my mind. I'll normally lose a bet, move on, that's that. Not with this Rice game. I hate this team. Eight chances to punch it in from less than five yards and a no go!? Jesus!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5472 on: October 31, 2013, 09:43:07 pm »

After tonight and last night, I'll go on and finalize Saturday's card with what's already locked in. I'm experiencing a slump and wish to add no more games. With that being said, fade away..

GT -10.5... 3u
ECU -23.5... 2.5u
Tulane +3...2u
Tulsa -3.5...2u
WVU/TCU u45.5...2u

This week so far I'm 0-3, -7.5u less juice. I've put myself in a little red on the year after this week and will be very cautious or sitting out awhile if I turn a losing card Saturday. Bank roll management is first and foremost. Sucks to have to realize that.
 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5473 on: October 31, 2013, 09:45:04 pm »

Forgot to add my horrible GOY play on the card:

NC St. pk...4u

Ha dammit.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5474 on: October 31, 2013, 09:53:54 pm »

Yay 0-2.
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Bellhog63

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5475 on: November 01, 2013, 07:33:13 am »

Ga tech. Clemson and over. Big on latter two
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5476 on: November 01, 2013, 07:45:31 am »

Lol geez
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5477 on: November 01, 2013, 09:18:22 am »

c'mon, jeff, how could you not see that safety in overtime coming?
Lol geez
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5478 on: November 01, 2013, 11:28:16 am »

Thanks to Az St for a 2-0 late night game.

Starting the weekend dead even at 2-2, but my little parlays made me a little change last night.

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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5479 on: November 01, 2013, 11:35:50 am »

went 0-3 for -7 units
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5480 on: November 01, 2013, 11:37:15 am »

Yes, I'm glad AZ St. kept me alive, albeit starting the weekend at 1-2.  At the risk of getting kicked, here's what I've added:

I decided that I liked Mid TN St. at -3 more than I liked OK St at +1.5, so instead of sticking with OSU, I switched to MTSU for 5 units.

I combined my 4 remaining plays in small 2-team parlays for a total of 4.5 units:
Aub -7
Minn +8
MO -9.5
MTSU -3
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5481 on: November 01, 2013, 11:52:48 am »

Really liking Oregon St tonight also. The line has moved from -4.5 down to -3.5 on 5dimes. I may make this my biggest play of the weekend, but a little more research to do.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5482 on: November 01, 2013, 12:56:13 pm »

c'mon, jeff, how could you not see that safety in overtime coming?


Lol I know right!
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5483 on: November 01, 2013, 01:05:53 pm »


Lol I know right!

Look at the bright side.  They did lose like you wanted. :)
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5484 on: November 01, 2013, 01:17:58 pm »

GT -10.5... 3u
ECU -23.5... 2.5u
Tulane +3...2u
Tulsa -3.5...2u
WVU/TCU u45.5...2u


I like this card.  I came very close to adding GT, ECU, and Tulane but just didn't want to play 10 games this weekend.   
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5485 on: November 01, 2013, 01:22:48 pm »

Look at the bright side.  They did lose like you wanted. :)

That is true. Course doesn't help much with the Steelers continuing to lose.
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5486 on: November 01, 2013, 01:49:07 pm »

The following teams have all been $$$$$ this season.  Even betting against them when they've had some really high spreads have been good plays.

Oregon
Baylor
Minnesota
UNLV
Arizona St.
FSU
Alabama
Arizona
Michigan St.
Iowa
Oklahoma
Texas Tech


Have all been a little better than average, but a little neurotic.

USC w/ Orgeron
A&M
Cincy
Okie St.
Auburn
Michigan
Ohio St.
Missouri
Notre Dame
Memphis


The following teams are putting people in the poor house either by consistently not covering or beating the spread when the underdog.

LSU
Georgia
Miami
Va Tech
GT
Ole Miss
S. Carolina
USF
UTEP
W. Kentucky
PITT
Rutgers


Now these have been $$$$$ betting against them.

Idaho
E. Michigan
Kansas
Arkansas
Tennessee
LA Tech
USC w/ Kiffin
Worst Virginia
New Mexico St.
Kent St.
UAB



just a casual observation.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5487 on: November 01, 2013, 03:33:11 pm »

Thanks WooPig,  Following along that line, here are the top 10 most predictable and bottom 10 least predictable teams as compared to the picks of six of the rating systems with better records ATS.  It looks like there is some overlap.  It also looks like it's been $ betting against E. Mich, Cal, & S. Miss (especially when the rating systems pick against them ... although this is probably not the weekend to test that theory b/c several of the systems are picking in favor of EM, Cal, & S MS this weekend).

1   Florida
2   Eastern Mich.
3   Nebraska
4   California
5   Southern Miss.
6   Ball St.
7   Virginia Tech
8   Marshall
8   Rice
10   Colorado

115   Washington
116   Louisiana Tech
116   Maryland
118   Nevada
119   Bowling Green
120   Indiana
121   Iowa St.
122   Central Mich.
123   Michigan St.
124   Utah
« Last Edit: November 01, 2013, 03:51:52 pm by DadVader1 »
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5488 on: November 01, 2013, 04:02:26 pm »

I DVR as many college football shows as possible. I really enjoyed watching this last night. I know you guys will enjoy the pic also. He did the show in a wolverine costume. LOL

[attachment deleted by admin]
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5489 on: November 01, 2013, 04:43:44 pm »

bought Oregon st to -3, 2 units
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5490 on: November 01, 2013, 04:46:33 pm »

just saw Okla state is down to PICKEM on my board.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5491 on: November 01, 2013, 04:50:00 pm »

Same here.  Wish I would have gone ahead and bought the hook to get it at +3 when it was at +2.5.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5492 on: November 01, 2013, 05:50:03 pm »

USC +5.5 / 3 units
Penn St Illinois under 57 / 3 units
Iowa St +17 / 3 units
Georgia -2 / 3 units
Miami +21.5 / 3 units
Miami fl st over 62 / 3 units
Michigan St -4 / dime play
Okie St +1 / dime play



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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5493 on: November 01, 2013, 06:48:24 pm »

USC +5.5 / 3 units
Penn St Illinois under 57 / 3 units
Iowa St +17 / 3 units
Georgia -2 / 3 units
Miami +21.5 / 3 units
Miami fl st over 62 / 3 units
Michigan St -4 / dime play
Okie St +1 / dime play





I see we are on opposite sides of the Or St v USC game,but I may be going to get USC at +7 and try to middle because I got Or St -3.5 earlier today.

Added

Or St -3.5 2*
USC +7 1*
USC v Or St under 52.5
« Last Edit: November 01, 2013, 07:28:19 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5494 on: November 01, 2013, 07:17:45 pm »

USC +5.5 / 3 units
Penn St Illinois under 57 / 3 units
Iowa St +17 / 3 units
Georgia -2 / 3 units
Miami +21.5 / 3 units
Miami fl st over 62 / 3 units
Michigan St -4 / dime play
Okie St +1 / dime play





This, and added the dreaded teaser....

Michigan  +10
Aub  -2
3 units
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5495 on: November 01, 2013, 07:31:25 pm »

just saw Okla state is down to PICKEM on my board.

I like Tech in this game.  Okie state can't throw the ball.

And if Tech didn't have 1,000 turnovers last week, they would have won in Norman
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5496 on: November 02, 2013, 04:01:00 am »

Can't believe I left off S. Miss, that's an automatic pick against, regardless of spread lol.


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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5497 on: November 02, 2013, 06:45:31 am »

I got in enough data to finish my initial screening.  Here are my leans:

Aub -7.5
Houston -18
Minn. +10
Mizz -9.5
Rice +4.5
OK St. +3
AZ St. -11.5

I don't recall ever having 3 good weekends in a row, and this will be weekend number 3.  I'm hoping to break new ground here, but be forewarned that I'm due for a "correction." 

I was rereading some of this page and just caught this.  I like how you put that Due for a correction.  That's so true and it always happens just a matter of when it happens.

I remember about 6 or 7 years back I went like 17-0 first week of college. 9-0 NFL week 1.

Week 2 college like 14-2

Week 2 nfl 7-1

Week 3 college. 13-0. And hit a 5 dollar ten teamer in there also that paid like three grand.

Week 3 NFL 8-0

Then Bam, pow, zap,   College 1-16
Pro 2-9

College 3-12

Pro 3-5

Then things started returning to normal. Went from couldn't miss to couldn't hit just like that.  Greatest and worst run of my betting life all in a 5 or so week span.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5498 on: November 02, 2013, 09:20:03 am »

Yes, more times than I care to admit, I'll have 2 really good weeks, start to think I have a good system figured out, increase the size of my plays in week 3, and give back my gains with a bad week 3.  Rinse & repeat.  Sometimes it's been 2 steps forward, 3 steps back, but after learning the lessons of bankroll management from you and a few of the other veterans, I've done a decent job of weathering those storms and coming out ahead in the long run.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5499 on: November 02, 2013, 09:22:37 am »

Can't believe I left off S. Miss, that's an automatic pick against, regardless of spread lol.

Ha!  Yes, I've done pretty well this year when giving points to S. Miss and Cal.
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