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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 331040 times)

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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5350 on: October 23, 2013, 04:13:36 pm »

its at +110 on mine

+105 for me.. Hope to get+115 would be nice.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5351 on: October 23, 2013, 07:02:43 pm »

NHL tonight Boaton -1.5 3 units to win just short of 6
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5352 on: October 23, 2013, 07:04:16 pm »

Hockey is all about goAlies and streaks'
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5353 on: October 24, 2013, 12:36:12 pm »

Here's what I've done so far:

ULL -2.5 @ Ark St.  4 units  W
Rice -17 v. UTEP  5 units
Houston +7 @ Rutgers  5 units
N. TX -10 @ Southern Miss 4 units
Georgia Tech -10 @ Virginia  5 units
Ball St. -10 @ Akron  4 units
Bowling Green -3 v. Toledo  4 units

I have small 2-team parlays for the following teams for a total of 5 units:
ULL -2.5   W
Rice -17
Houston +7
N. TX -10
Georgia Tech -10
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5354 on: October 24, 2013, 01:23:33 pm »

Here's what I've done so far:

ULL -2.5 @ Ark St.  4 units  W
Rice -17 v. UTEP  5 units
Houston +7 @ Rutgers  5 units
N. TX -10 @ Southern Miss 4 units
Georgia Tech -10 @ Virginia  5 units
Ball St. -10 @ Akron  4 units
Bowling Green -3 v. Toledo  4 units

I have small 2-team parlays for the following teams for a total of 5 units:
ULL -2.5   W
Rice -17
Houston +7
N. TX -10
Georgia Tech -10

Assuming your 5 unit plays are your most confident, do you have a favorite or most confident of those three?
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5355 on: October 24, 2013, 01:48:05 pm »

frick it, im betting both Baylor and Oregon this week. why not?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5356 on: October 24, 2013, 02:48:27 pm »

Assuming your 5 unit plays are your most confident, do you have a favorite or most confident of those three?

Actually, don't put weight on the 5 unit/4 unit thing.  I started all of them at 4 units.  After ULL and reviewing how my semi-finalists performed last week, I decided to make most everything 5 units, but a few lines had changed in the meantime, so I only added 1 unit to a few of them pending further study.  My favorite is N. TX, and I would put Ball St. & Houston as 2A & 2B. 

I got pretty stoked looking over my scratch sheets from last week, trying to figure out where the spreadsheet did well and not so well and trying to figure out where my narrowing of the spreadsheet picks did well and not so well.  It HAD to be at least partially because of a lucky week, because the scratch sheets looked too good to be true after the fact.  I highlighted wins in yellow, losses in red, and pushes in green, and there was a LOT of yellow and VERY little red.  I beat the odds in keeping one of the only losses in my final cut.  Of the 10 or 15 trends with at least 10 occurrences hitting at 100% before last week, every one of them hit at 100% again last week.  I'm not holding my breath that it will play out that way again this week, but I can at least hold out hope for a good week and get a little excited.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5357 on: October 24, 2013, 03:04:49 pm »

Actually, don't put weight on the 5 unit/4 unit thing.  I started all of them at 4 units.  After ULL and reviewing how my semi-finalists performed last week, I decided to make most everything 5 units, but a few lines had changed in the meantime, so I only added 1 unit to a few of them pending further study.  My favorite is N. TX, and I would put Ball St. & Houston as 2A & 2B. 

I got pretty stoked looking over my scratch sheets from last week, trying to figure out where the spreadsheet did well and not so well and trying to figure out where my narrowing of the spreadsheet picks did well and not so well.  It HAD to be at least partially because of a lucky week, because the scratch sheets looked too good to be true after the fact.  I highlighted wins in yellow, losses in red, and pushes in green, and there was a LOT of yellow and VERY little red.  I beat the odds in keeping one of the only losses in my final cut.  Of the 10 or 15 trends with at least 10 occurrences hitting at 100% before last week, every one of them hit at 100% again last week.  I'm not holding my breath that it will play out that way again this week, but I can at least hold out hope for a good week and get a little excited.

That's great Vader, keep it up buddy!

Anyone like any action tonight? I lean MTSU +8. Thursday night unders are always hot too...
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5358 on: October 24, 2013, 03:12:19 pm »

I've got MTSU at +10 for 1.5 units tonight
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5359 on: October 24, 2013, 03:13:06 pm »

don't want to bet msu/Kentucky.. talk about two retards pillow fighting. should make for an ugly game that can go either way.
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5360 on: October 24, 2013, 03:15:43 pm »

Will try to help everyone win some money.
I bet a progressive system, I will post updated results with W/L on the money as well.

I never bet more then 2% of my bank roll. 1 star =$50

All plays tonight are 1 star.. Detroit Red Wings -145 (moneyline) over the Ottawa Senators (NHL Hockey) Loss minus $77.25

Boston Bruins / Buffalo Sabres OVER 5  (NHL)  Win Plus $50

1/2 Star STL Cards (MLB) $25 moneyline is Even. Loss minus $25

1 star on Tampa Bay (NFL) for Thursday, going to wait the line is at +6, going to wait and see if it will get to +7, if not I will buy up to + 7. 
  Minus $52.25 yesterday

Tonight plays

Kentucky plus 12 1 star

Winnipeg Jets +124 (moneyline) over the Nashville Predators (NHL Hockey) 2 star

Boston Bruins -107 (moneyline) over the San Jose Sharks (NHL Hockey) 1 star


Tampa bay NFL +7   2 star

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5361 on: October 24, 2013, 04:11:48 pm »

frick it, im betting both Baylor and Oregon this week. why not?

You may have missed the optimum line on the Oregon play. Anything over 24 is getting into no play land for me, and I think it's at 23.5 right now. I took it at 23 I believe, because I missed everything under 21.

Anyone know what is up with Ball St and Akron? That line has moved from 11.5 down to 9. It's moving in my favor, and I like that for 2 reasons, 1, it gives me a better line, and 2, it leads me to believe that the public is on Akron.

Good job Vader. Doin work pays off.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5362 on: October 24, 2013, 04:15:57 pm »

NHL tonight Boaton -1.5 3 units to win just short of 6

Nice winner winner chicken dinner!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5363 on: October 24, 2013, 04:59:38 pm »

Why tampa if you dont mind? Awful with injury to their best back too right?
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5364 on: October 24, 2013, 05:19:05 pm »

Why tampa if you dont mind? Awful with injury to their best back too right?

68% is betting Carolina, Tampa is at home and getting 7 pts. Bay have won the last 2 games they played each other. Glennon is looking better and I don't think Carolina DB will be able to stop VJ and Mike Williams. Throw in home dog, and their home losses are a combined 16 pts ( 3 games)
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5365 on: October 24, 2013, 05:35:18 pm »

The spreadsheets like Miss St., but not enough to make any final cuts.  I took them in a pick'em contest but don't plan on playing it for $.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5366 on: October 24, 2013, 05:38:27 pm »

The spreadsheets really like UCLA at +23, but I don't think there is any way they can take into account the timing of Oregon being pissed about just getting ranked 3d behind FSU in the BCS, so there is no way I'm playing UCLA.  There's still enough there that would make me think twice about taking Oregon at -24 or higher.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5367 on: October 24, 2013, 05:48:25 pm »

Anyone know what is up with Ball St and Akron? That line has moved from 11.5 down to 9. It's moving in my favor, and I like that for 2 reasons, 1, it gives me a better line, and 2, it leads me to believe that the public is on Akron.

Good job Vader. Doin work pays off.

Thanks Will.  It looks like around 75% of the public is on Ball St., but the line is moving the other way.  It looks like some serious reverse-line movement, which  doesn't give me a warm cozy feeling.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5368 on: October 24, 2013, 06:33:37 pm »

going all dogs tonight

KY +12.5
MTSU +10
TBay +7

all 1 unit!
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5369 on: October 24, 2013, 06:36:17 pm »

going all dogs tonight

KY +12.5
MTSU +10
TBay +7

all 1 unit!


Good luck
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5370 on: October 24, 2013, 07:46:18 pm »

going all dogs tonight

KY +12.5
MTSU +10
TBay +7

all 1 unit!

Those would've been my picks too. Didn't end up having enough time for research today so laid off, but those were all my leans. Good luck man.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5371 on: October 24, 2013, 08:20:17 pm »

I know, this is about as degenerate as it gets...but...

ULM -12 at home vs. Georgia St. looks phenomenal. Georgia St. is the worst team in D1...arguably. They lost by 28 at home to Chattanooga.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5372 on: October 24, 2013, 09:49:16 pm »

I put 2 units on carolina -3 at the half. Tampa is awful
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5373 on: October 24, 2013, 10:13:38 pm »

I put 2 units on carolina -3 at the half. Tampa is awful

 Tampa is pretty dang awful
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5374 on: October 24, 2013, 11:30:43 pm »

Saturday card:

3u: KSU -11.5, ORE/UCLA o71.5

2u: HOU +7, UNT -11.5, BG -4, ULM -12, AF +20
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5375 on: October 25, 2013, 01:51:34 pm »

 Minus $52.25 10/23

Tonight plays

Kentucky plus 12 1 star. W  Plus $50

Winnipeg Jets +124 (moneyline) over the Nashville Predators (NHL Hockey) 2 star.   L -$100

Boston Bruins -107 (moneyline) over the San Jose Sharks (NHL Hockey) 1 star

Win $50


Tampa bay NFL +7   2 star  L  -110

Minus of -$110 yesterday, down -$1625.25 for the week


Plays for 10/25


Brigham Young -7 over Boise State  (NCAA Football)  1 star

 



Ottawa Senators -147 over the Anaheim Ducks (NHL Hockey) 1 star

Pittsburgh Penguins / New York Islanders OVER 5½ (NHL Hockey)3 star

Carolina Hurricanes/ Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5½ (NHL Hockey) 1 star

Good luck



« Last Edit: October 25, 2013, 03:34:00 pm by Spikes »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5376 on: October 25, 2013, 03:45:51 pm »

After looking over the changed lines, I went back and added 1 more unit to Ball St. at -9 and 1 more unit to N. TX at -11.5.  This was primarily to level out my main plays at 5 units each.  It's also after I stumbled across a trend that included those two that has hit 17-0 so far this season.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5377 on: October 25, 2013, 03:59:51 pm »

Going to tail you for ball state/n texas at 2 units each
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5378 on: October 25, 2013, 04:20:21 pm »

Good luck!  I think I should develop a footnote/tagline disclaimer thing with the language from the old stock broker commercials ... "past performance is no guarantee of future results"  :)
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5379 on: October 25, 2013, 04:26:20 pm »

i absolute love the fact that your system is behind my leans. makes me feel good about this weekend.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5380 on: October 25, 2013, 04:58:50 pm »

Yes, I like that your leans and Widespread's leans mesh well with the spreadsheets this weekend.  Even though I've been building, testing, and refining them for over a year now, I keep trying to learn, tweak, and improve.  I really don't have much of a track record built up using this slightly different angle that looks so promising, so I'm trying to keep from getting too excited and trying to keep from blowing my bankroll management.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5381 on: October 25, 2013, 06:59:42 pm »

Taking the Boise ML tonight. I know BYU is good at home, but this is a down year for them and I think Boise is just flatout better.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5382 on: October 25, 2013, 08:23:50 pm »

The spreadsheets really like UCLA at +23, but I don't think there is any way they can take into account the timing of Oregon being pissed about just getting ranked 3d behind FSU in the BCS, so there is no way I'm playing UCLA.  There's still enough there that would make me think twice about taking Oregon at -24 or higher.

I agree. UCLA looks good to stay within 24 of Oregon.

I think I also like Texas Tech +6 1/2 @ Oklahoma.

Missouri also looks good at home -3 vs S. Carolina. Guess we'll find out if Missouri is real or not this weekend.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5383 on: October 25, 2013, 10:08:41 pm »

I would honestly invest in the over or Oregon before UCLA. UCLA hasn't necessarily played up to snuff against the significant competition.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5384 on: October 25, 2013, 10:18:27 pm »

UCLA starting 3 fresh. on O line. rb may play but not 100%.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5385 on: October 25, 2013, 11:01:08 pm »

I agree. UCLA looks good to stay within 24 of Oregon.

I think I also like Texas Tech +6 1/2 @ Oklahoma.

Missouri also looks good at home -3 vs S. Carolina. Guess we'll find out if Missouri is real or not this weekend.

I'm guessing UCLA stays within 28-32, but not much closer. I have lost every bet, no matter which side, when betting on an Oklahoma game, so no go for me. I'm all over SC getting 3 in this game. I see SC running away with this one, with Clowney having about 3 sacks, and SC pulling out a 14-17 point victory.

Taking the Boise ML tonight. I know BYU is good at home, but this is a down year for them and I think Boise is just flatout better.

You're having a bad year man, along with me and a couple of others. Keep at it though, you've brought some real good info to this thread and this is just as temporary as the hot streaks.

I will post my official card tomorrow, but as I said before, I have a really good feeling about this weekend. May throw around some parlays tomorrow, because I think it could be that kind of day.

G/L to everyone
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5386 on: October 26, 2013, 06:10:38 am »

I'm guessing UCLA stays within 28-32, but not much closer. I have lost every bet, no matter which side, when betting on an Oklahoma game, so no go for me. I'm all over SC getting 3 in this game. I see SC running away with this one, with Clowney having about 3 sacks, and SC pulling out a 14-17 point victory.

G/L to everyone


I've played Oklahoma games 3 times this year and won all 3.

I haven't played a UCLA game yet this year and only played an Oregon game once, so I am less familiar with them. Still, I have a feeling that this may be closer than many think it will be.

As far as Missouri and S. Carolina goes, there will probably be a lot of passing yards in this game. Interestingly enough, both teams are pretty good in RZ Offense and both aren't so great in RZ Defense. Pretty evenly matched game but I think Missouri has the edge with it being in Columbia. Of course S. Carolina is coming in p.o.'d because of their loss last weekend to Tennessee. Should be a great game.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5387 on: October 26, 2013, 07:45:22 am »

ULM quarterback Kolton Browning was thought to be out for the season with a torn quad. However, he will return to the field and start for the Warhawks on Saturday vs. Ga. St. Browning was the Sun Belt’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2012.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5388 on: October 26, 2013, 07:58:11 am »

Widespread's ULM -12 is looking pretty sweet right now. The line is now up to -14.5.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5389 on: October 26, 2013, 09:34:25 am »

Fairly large card for me today.  Could end up biting me in the hiney.

2 unit plays
Pitt -4
Vandy +17.5

3 unit plays
Texas Tech +7.5 bought a half there
Nevada -6
USC -5.5
Wake Forest +24

5 unit plays
Mich ST -9
Northwestern +4
Stanford -4
Okie St -13

Dime play
Penn St +17
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5390 on: October 26, 2013, 09:54:10 am »

I could only get Penn St. at +15.5, but the better ranking systems all still pick Penn St. at +15.5, so I went ahead and added that for 2 units.  Thanks & Good Luck!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5391 on: October 26, 2013, 10:30:57 am »

I could only get Penn St. at +15.5, but the better ranking systems all still pick Penn St. at +15.5, so I went ahead and added that for 2 units.  Thanks & Good Luck!


You too man!
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5392 on: October 26, 2013, 10:41:04 am »

OK, in a lapse of discipline, I added three more games, but at least kept them at 2 units each:

Nevada -6.5
Colo St. -1.5
Ariz -12.5
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5393 on: October 26, 2013, 10:42:40 am »

Plus $72.50 yesterday. Down right at $100 for the week

Wake Forest +24 over Miami Florida  (NCAA College Football) 1 star

Boston College +6 over North Carolina (NCAA College Football) 2 star

North Carolina State / Florida State UNDER 58  1 star

South Carolina +2.5 (buy half point to +3) over Missouri  2 star
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5394 on: October 26, 2013, 10:51:14 am »

5 unit plays
Northwestern +3.5

3 unit play
ULM -15
Penn State +16.5

2 unit play
Ohio -26
OU -6.5

1 unit play
NC State +34.5
Utah +4.5
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5395 on: October 26, 2013, 11:08:01 am »

I've played Oklahoma games 3 times this year and won all 3.

I haven't played a UCLA game yet this year and only played an Oregon game once, so I am less familiar with them. Still, I have a feeling that this may be closer than many think it will be.

As far as Missouri and S. Carolina goes, there will probably be a lot of passing yards in this game. Interestingly enough, both teams are pretty good in RZ Offense and both aren't so great in RZ Defense. Pretty evenly matched game but I think Missouri has the edge with it being in Columbia. Of course S. Carolina is coming in p.o.'d because of their loss last weekend to Tennessee. Should be a great game.

When I get on a roll with a team, I tend to stick with them also.

I'm with my guy on therx as far as west coast teams go. I was leaning Oregon, and he posted it as one of his only 2 plays today so I feel good about it. I think Oregon is going to be pissed about being #3 in BCS, and are going to take it out on the Bruins.

South Carolina is just a gut call. If Mizzou wins, they have the East locked up, and I just feel that Spurrier isn't ready to give up just yet.

You are right, it is gonna be one helluva game and a day of football. When I realized I didn't have to be at work till 6 tonight, I knew it was gonna be a long day of football.

Oregon -23   2*
Duke +13½  2*
Ball State -10½  3*
Utah +6½ 1*
Utah +7  1*
Bowling Green -4 2*
South Carolina +135 1*
South Carolina +3  1*
Georgia Tech -10 2*
Ball State -9½ 1*
Oregon State +4½  2*

Let's kick some ass today fella's.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5396 on: October 26, 2013, 11:31:25 am »

When I get on a roll with a team, I tend to stick with them also.

I'm with my guy on therx as far as west coast teams go. I was leaning Oregon, and he posted it as one of his only 2 plays today so I feel good about it. I think Oregon is going to be pissed about being #3 in BCS, and are going to take it out on the Bruins.

South Carolina is just a gut call. If Mizzou wins, they have the East locked up, and I just feel that Spurrier isn't ready to give up just yet.

You are right, it is gonna be one helluva game and a day of football. When I realized I didn't have to be at work till 6 tonight, I knew it was gonna be a long day of football.

Oregon -23   2*
Duke +13½  2*
Ball State -10½  3*
Utah +6½ 1*
Utah +7  1*
Bowling Green -4 2*
South Carolina +135 1*
South Carolina +3  1*
Georgia Tech -10 2*
Ball State -9½ 1*
Oregon State +4½  2*

Let's kick some ass today fella's.

It's just the statistical analysis that plays into it for me. So far my spreadsheets have accurately predicted the outcome of the Oklahoma games.

That is why I tend to look for more consistent play from the teams that I choose. I look for mismatches, injured players, players who aren't playing or playing injured as well as tendencies vs. various styles of offense/defense and home and away tendencies in terms of offensive and defensive performance and scoring just like anyone else, but I lean more towards teams that I know more about and how they typically perform and that is the only reason that I have had success with the Oklahoma games.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5397 on: October 26, 2013, 12:45:47 pm »

Is Okie St gonna stick it in my pooper again this week?
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5398 on: October 26, 2013, 12:52:46 pm »

Is Okie St gonna stick it in my pooper again this week?

They might. Glad I just went with the over in my longshot parlay.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5399 on: October 26, 2013, 01:06:19 pm »

Widespread's ULM -12 is looking pretty sweet right now. The line is now up to -14.5.

So glad I pulled the trigger when I did. At 15.5 on my book. I actually ended up getting better lines on all my games than what they are at now. Except for BG, still sitting at 4. That's some luck I'm not used too. I'll actually be in attendance for the KSU/WVU game, let's go Cats! Got to look into PSU now as it's a dime play for Jeff.
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