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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 338684 times)

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5300 on: October 19, 2013, 10:36:30 am »

I'm adding Okie St (sigh)  -7
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5301 on: October 19, 2013, 10:53:03 am »

I'm adding Okie St (sigh)  -7

Seems like a close game to me even though it is OSU's Homecoming weekend. Not sure if OSU covers or not.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5302 on: October 19, 2013, 10:54:13 am »

Seems like a close game to me even though it is OSU's Homecoming weekend. Not sure if OSU covers or not.

I've lost every bet on them so far this season. Why not another?
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5303 on: October 19, 2013, 10:58:40 am »

10 pt teaser. 1 unit
Bama -20
Clemson +13
Texas A&m -3

10 pt teaser 1 unit
LSU even
UCLA +15
Bama -20

ML Parley 2 units
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Buffalo (College team)
 
ML Parley 1 unit
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Cincinnati Bearcats
Green Bay Packers



What the hell does a 10 point team teaser pay? You even make back half what you risk?
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5304 on: October 19, 2013, 11:03:01 am »

Dialing it down some this week, but the line I think ya'll are missing out on is SMU. SMU has much more talent, same record due to tough schedule, and Memphis finds a way to lose games. I've got SMU winning by 10-14.

3 units
SMU +3.5
S Car -7

2 units
Maryland -4.5
Clemson +3..5
Purdue +28
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5305 on: October 19, 2013, 11:10:18 am »

What the hell does a 10 point team teaser pay? You even make back half what you risk?

Wondering the same about those relatively large money lines.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5306 on: October 19, 2013, 11:31:21 am »

Added:

ND -3 1*
Stanford -4.5 1*
Boise St -24 1*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5307 on: October 19, 2013, 11:59:57 am »

just got an in game line of

SC -9.5 1*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5308 on: October 19, 2013, 12:21:02 pm »

added

Buffalo -20  1*

I'm not a degenerate, I'm not a degenerate, I'm not a degenerate....
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5309 on: October 19, 2013, 12:35:09 pm »

Dialing it down some this week, but the line I think ya'll are missing out on is SMU. SMU has much more talent, same record due to tough schedule, and Memphis finds a way to lose games. I've got SMU winning by 10-14.

3 units
SMU +3.5
S Car -7

2 units
Maryland -4.5
Clemson +3..5
Purdue +28

Great call on SMU so far. They are up 31-3 at halftime.

Any thoughts on the 2nd half line here?
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5310 on: October 19, 2013, 12:37:31 pm »

Added

Ball St -19   1*
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5311 on: October 19, 2013, 12:46:09 pm »

Took

2nd half SMU +3.5
2nd half ECU -10

for a small parlay.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5312 on: October 19, 2013, 01:19:28 pm »

Following Will on the SMU +3.5 2nd half line.

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5313 on: October 19, 2013, 04:26:28 pm »

Following Will on the SMU +3.5 2nd half line.



Sorry about that one bro. Damn. And my in game bet on SC lost also. Only Ball St has bailed me out so far. 1-3 on the day excluding parlays.

Lets go late action.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5314 on: October 19, 2013, 05:30:36 pm »

Clemson +4  1*
Clemson +5.5  1*
Clemson ML +175  1*
Arkansas +30  1*
Arkansas/Alabama under 49  1*

The Arkansas plays are based off a guy over on therx who posts his needs as a bookie. Gone 5-1 so far today. The Clemson plays are gut calls because of some Billy Walters plays.

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5315 on: October 19, 2013, 08:06:05 pm »

And here we go again. Staring down the barrel of a horrible day. Hopefully Fresno st can save me.

Fesno St-25 3*
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5316 on: October 20, 2013, 11:41:04 am »

It's good to get back on a winning track.  On straight bets, I went 6-3-1 on the weekend for +10 units (before juice), and on 3-team parlays, I went 10-10 for +4.4 units (after juice), for a +14.4 weekend.  That makes it 33-22-1 (60%) and 10-10 parlays (50%) on the year for +7.1 units.

One of these weekends, I'm going to learn to stick with the games that make my initial cut and NOT keep adding games that are stretches.  Two weekends ago, my added plays brought a 67% weekend down to a 50% weekend, and this weekend, my added plays brought an 83% weekend down to a 67% weekend. I'm starting to think that the "too good to be true" angle is actually pretty darn good, and the data from this weekend seems to follow and support those trends.  I'm pretty stoked that I now have probably 15 or 20 trends with sample sizes of over 50 hitting at over 70%, a few with sample sizes of over 40 hitting at over 80%, and 10 or 15 with sample sizes of 10 to 13 hitting at 100%.  Hopefully, I'll stay disciplined, resist the temptation to add games that don't make my initial cut, and get my ATS record up into new territory for me.

I still want to do some parlays but would LOVE to get some tips and advice on how best to utilize them.  I was a little surprised that, after going 5 for 6 in my 3-team parlay pool, I only won at a multiple of 2.23 (I did buy one hook).  If there is a decent chance of going 4 out of 6 or 5 out of 6 on a weekend, any ideas or suggestions on a good parlay approach?

Cut & paste from earlier w/ track record:
------------------------
Bama -28  2 units  W
Toledo - 7   3 units  L
Rice -17.5  3 units  W
E.Carolina -22.5   3 units  W
Ore St. -9.5   3 units  W
Akron -7  3 units  Push
Ball St. -18.5  2 units  W

Added:
Army +2.5  1 unit  L
N. TX -6.5  1 unit  W

Also added 20, tiny 3-team parlays with these teams for a combined total of 2 units:
Toledo - 8.5  L
Rice -18  W
E.Carolina -22.5  W   
Ore St. -10  W
Akron -6.5  W
Ball St. -18.5  W
---------
I also added one unit on LSU.  L  (another reminder NOT to try to rely on my own handicapping skills without supporting data).
« Last Edit: October 20, 2013, 11:52:02 am by DadVader1 »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5317 on: October 20, 2013, 12:06:59 pm »

Well Guys, I'm officially having the worst season of the last 5 years. I've never had a losing year, but I may be out of the game next week at this rate. I was ok until the Clemson and Arkansas debacles. I was following some guys I've never followed, but they were on hot streaks and I figured I could ride it out. All 5 bets on that game went against my gut feelings, but I figured it was worth it to roll the dice. I did, and lost.

I went against one of my fundamental rules on the Fresno game. Trying to make back a big chunk of what I had lost on 1 game.

Miami -9  2*  L -$91
Oregon St -10  1*  W +$42
Florida -3  1*  L -$46
Oklahoma -22.5  1*  L -$46
ND -3 1*  W  +$42
Stanford -4.5 1*  W  +$42
Boise St -24 1*  L  -$46
SC -9.5 1*  L  -$46
Buffalo -20  1*  W  +$42
Ball St -19   1*  W  +$42
Clemson +4  1*  L  -$46
Clemson +5.5  1*  L  -$46
Clemson ML +175  1*  L  -$46
Arkansas +30  1*  L  -$46
Arkansas/Alabama under 49  1*  L  -$46
Fesno St-25 3*  L  -$182

36-49-4 (40%)  $353  -88% ROI


I also added one unit on LSU.  L  (another reminder NOT to try to rely on my own handicapping skills without supporting data).

Good weekend, but a note on the LSU game. There is no way Ole Miss should have been within a couple of TD's of LSU on talent alone. Combine the injuries and the emotional drain from playing TAMU close the previous weekend, and it should have been a cakewalk for LSU. Unfortunately, some coaches and players have had their fat little girlfriends tell them how good they were and that they didn't need to practice.

All of this just goes to show me that that's why you have to play the games.
 

« Last Edit: October 20, 2013, 12:23:59 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5318 on: October 21, 2013, 10:07:47 pm »

Saturday: 3-4 (-2.5u less juice)

A&M -13.5...3u...L
Bama -28...3u...W
Cincy -13.5...2.5u...W
ECU -22.5...2.5u...W
LSU -8...4u...L
UGA/VAN o61.5...2.5u...L
Four team parlay loss...1u

YTD: 46-39-1 54% (+7 less juice)
Totals: 18-17 51%
ATS: 27-17-1 61%
Parlay: 1-1
Teases: 0-4

Week 9 leans, but this may be a good week to lay low:

ISU +13
UNT -10.5
KSU -10.5
BC +7.5
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5319 on: October 21, 2013, 10:09:00 pm »

You know it's melt-down time in the MMQB forum when this thread is pushed back to the fourth page during football season.  Here are my early leans for this week.  Each of these picks falls into more than one trend of 10 or more hitting at 100%, and into more than one trend of 20 or more hitting at least 90%, and more than one trend of 50 or more hitting at least 70%.

ULL -2.5 @ Ark St.
Rice -17 v. UTEP
Houston +7 @ Rutgers
N. TX -10 @ Southern Miss
Georgia Tech -10 @ Virginia

The spreadsheets also really like Utah +7.5 @ USC and UCLA +23 @ Oregon.  Utah's qb hurt his thumb last week.  If it looks like he'll play and be ok, I'll probably take Utah and the points.  With Oregon feeling dissed about opening up at 3 in the BCS rankings, I don't plan on playing the Oregon game.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5320 on: October 21, 2013, 10:13:04 pm »

You know it's melt-down time in the MMQB forum when this thread is pushed back to the fourth page during football season.  Here are my early leans for this week.  Each of these picks falls into more than one trend of 10 or more hitting at 100%, and into more than one trend of 20 or more hitting at least 90%, and more than one trend of 50 or more hitting at least 70%.

ULL -2.5 @ Ark St.
Rice -17 v. UTEP
Houston +7 @ Rutgers
N. TX -10 @ Southern Miss
Georgia Tech -10 @ Virginia

The spreadsheets also really like Utah +7.5 @ USC and UCLA +23 @ Oregon.  Utah's qb hurt his thumb last week.  If it looks like he'll play and be ok, I'll probably take Utah and the points.  With Oregon feeling dissed about opening up at 3 in the BCS rankings, I don't plan on playing the Oregon game.

Hard to bet against Oregon, I agree. Utah seems to be a good pick, and glad to see the sheets liking UNT.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5321 on: October 21, 2013, 10:13:08 pm »

2 picks from the west coast guy on my other site that I agree with are:

Oregon -(up to 24), the lower the better obviously
Oregon St +6.5,

I like
Duke +13.5
Bowling Green -4
Ball St -11.5
Georgia Tech -10
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5322 on: October 21, 2013, 10:16:00 pm »

2 picks from the west coast guy on my other site that I agree with are:

Oregon -(up to 24), the lower the better obviously
Oregon St +6.5,

I like
Duke +13.5
Bowling Green -4
Ball St -11.5
Georgia Tech -10

The spreadsheets also like Bowling Green & Ball St.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5323 on: October 21, 2013, 10:21:55 pm »

Hard to bet against Oregon, I agree. Utah seems to be a good pick, and glad to see the sheets liking UNT.

Kansas State also pops up in a few nice trends.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5324 on: October 21, 2013, 10:24:09 pm »

Kansas State also pops up in a few nice trends.

Homecoming as well for KSU
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5325 on: October 22, 2013, 08:12:16 am »

Tahj Boyd is a degenerate gambler, and more than likely threw the game last week if you ask me.

http://ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1144
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5326 on: October 22, 2013, 09:14:14 am »

VERY interesting article, but I don't think Tahj is to blame for Clemson's defensive collapse against FSU.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5327 on: October 22, 2013, 09:27:14 am »

VERY interesting article, but I don't think Tahj is to blame for Clemson's defensive collapse against FSU.

Ha nah, I was half way joking. He did play terrible last week though. Glad I know to stay away from Clemson games now.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5328 on: October 22, 2013, 10:29:30 am »

You guys will love this. Sportsbook offered me a free bet so I clicked around on it until I could see the most I could play. It would let me do a $200 7 team parlay wager.
Parlay (7 Teams)   
bet 200.00

Alabama -30

Baylor -32.5

OregonSt -11.5

WashingtonU 24   
ArizonaSt 53   Over 68

WashingtonSt 38   
Oregon 62    Over 73

Wisconsin -14.5

Nevada 17   
BoiseSt 34    Over 68

Win, Win, Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss.
A $200 7 team parlay pays $15,000.
Ouch
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5329 on: October 22, 2013, 11:03:55 am »

OUCH!  SOOOO close.  If you ever get one game away from a $15,000 parlay again, you should consider fading it for around $7,500 to guarantee a payout.  I don't recall the numbers (but it was MUCH smaller), but during the bowl games last year, I was one game away from hitting a 6 or 7 game parlay.  I faded the last game to guarantee half of the large payout, the last game of the parlay lost, and I still won big (in relative terms) on a small outlay.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5330 on: October 22, 2013, 05:36:41 pm »

You guys will love this. Sportsbook offered me a free bet so I clicked around on it until I could see the most I could play. It would let me do a $200 7 team parlay wager.
Parlay (7 Teams)   
bet 200.00

Alabama -30

Baylor -32.5

OregonSt -11.5

WashingtonU 24   
ArizonaSt 53   Over 68

WashingtonSt 38   
Oregon 62    Over 73

Wisconsin -14.5

Nevada 17   
BoiseSt 34    Over 68

Win, Win, Win, Win, Win, Win, Loss.
A $200 7 team parlay pays $15,000.
Ouch



You didn't hedge at least 2 grand?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5331 on: October 22, 2013, 06:02:24 pm »

I took ULL -2.5 for 4 units.  The 4 units is just what I plan on doing for my 5 or 6 main plays this week/weekend, so it's not an indication that I feel particularly strong about it.

In hindsight, I probably should not have done it, but I also took 2-team parlays (for a total of 2 units) coupling ULL-2.5 with:

Georgia Tech -10
Houston +7
North TX -10
Rice -17
« Last Edit: October 22, 2013, 06:12:40 pm by DadVader1 »
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5332 on: October 22, 2013, 06:17:31 pm »

You didn't hedge at least 2 grand?
I had 3 other games yet to play and two in progress when Boise was playing so not sure what my options were. I just listed boise last on the list but it wasn't the last game.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5333 on: October 22, 2013, 06:36:16 pm »

Just an FYI guys I'm pretty much done with Hogville. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up. I have had it. Not this thread. 

There are a couple on here with my cell.  If I have a dime play I will shoot that info to them. Will be around for a day or two. Have a few goodbyes to give, but for the most part I'm done.  Good luck to all!
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5334 on: October 22, 2013, 06:45:56 pm »

Just an FYI guys I'm pretty much done with Hogville. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up. I have had it. Not this thread. 

There are a couple on here with my cell.  If I have a dime play I will shoot that info to them. Will be around for a day or two. Have a few goodbyes to give, but for the most part I'm done.  Good luck to all!
This thread, and maybe hanging out in Dickson Street some, are the only places anyone needs to go, unless you want to go crazy. Especially for the next couple of years.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5335 on: October 22, 2013, 06:52:53 pm »

Thanks for sharing your wisdom, knowledge, and experience (AND dime plays)!  I learned a LOT from your coaching.  You'll be missed.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5336 on: October 22, 2013, 10:25:36 pm »

Just an FYI guys I'm pretty much done with Hogville. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up. I have had it. Not this thread. 

There are a couple on here with my cell.  If I have a dime play I will shoot that info to them. Will be around for a day or two. Have a few goodbyes to give, but for the most part I'm done.  Good luck to all!

I wish you would stay involved in this thread, while not wading into the mmqb....but you're not the first to express the sentiments above.  Good success to you.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5337 on: October 23, 2013, 09:31:41 am »

Just an FYI guys I'm pretty much done with Hogville. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up. I have had it. Not this thread. 

There are a couple on here with my cell.  If I have a dime play I will shoot that info to them. Will be around for a day or two. Have a few goodbyes to give, but for the most part I'm done.  Good luck to all!

send us some PM's of where you'll be posting on the regular. I know you'll be around somewhere!
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5338 on: October 23, 2013, 09:59:43 am »

Just an FYI guys I'm pretty much done with Hogville. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up. I have had it. Not this thread. 

There are a couple on here with my cell.  If I have a dime play I will shoot that info to them. Will be around for a day or two. Have a few goodbyes to give, but for the most part I'm done.  Good luck to all!

Come on man.  Don't let the blind eye optimists get you down. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5339 on: October 23, 2013, 12:13:42 pm »

MMQB is a joke. Literally, a joke. 4/5 posts are so far off base, it's just embarrassing...and I'll leave it at that. The worst part is, if you want to call someone out with facts or a valid argument, then you're the dumb one all the sudden. 
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5340 on: October 23, 2013, 01:46:18 pm »

MMQB is a joke. Literally, a joke. 4/5 posts are so far off base, it's just embarrassing...and I'll leave it at that. The worst part is, if you want to call someone out with facts or a valid argument, then you're the dumb one all the sudden. 

I used to think it was folks trolling, but either way, you cannot have a valid argument or opinion on whichever side you are on (sad that we have sides this soon).
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5341 on: October 23, 2013, 02:48:59 pm »

Will try to help everyone win some money.
I bet a progressive system, I will post updated results with W/L on the money as well.

I never bet more then 2% of my bank roll. 1 star =$50

All plays tonight are 1 star.. Detroit Red Wings -145 (moneyline) over the Ottawa Senators (NHL Hockey)

Boston Bruins / Buffalo Sabres OVER 5  (NHL)

1/2 Star STL Cards (MLB) $25 moneyline is Even.

1 star on Tampa Bay (NFL) for Thursday, going to wait the line is at +6, going to wait and see if it will get to +7, if not I will buy up to + 7. 
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5342 on: October 23, 2013, 03:36:54 pm »

Will try to help everyone win some money.
I bet a progressive system, I will post updated results with W/L on the money as well.

I never bet more then 2% of my bank roll. 1 star =$50

All plays tonight are 1 star.. Detroit Red Wings -145 (moneyline) over the Ottawa Senators (NHL Hockey)

Boston Bruins / Buffalo Sabres OVER 5  (NHL)

1/2 Star STL Cards (MLB) $25 moneyline is Even.

1 star on Tampa Bay (NFL) for Thursday, going to wait the line is at +6, going to wait and see if it will get to +7, if not I will buy up to + 7. 

If you don't mind me asking, are you pretty good at NHL? Would love to tail some of your best bets. I think having a sport I don't watch and gambling small amounts would be easier on my mind than college football, where I feel obligated to watch every second of the games.

I keep hearing folks say its more predictable betting than football. I know its killing my bookie hah.
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5343 on: October 23, 2013, 03:44:03 pm »

If you don't mind me asking, are you pretty good at NHL? Would love to tail some of your best bets. I think having a sport I don't watch and gambling small amounts would be easier on my mind than college football, where I feel obligated to watch every second of the games.

 

I keep hearing folks say its more predictable betting than football. I know its killing my bookie hah.

I feel NHL is some what easier to predict but once again Vegas does a pretty good job on the lines. Feel free to follow,  all ask is set a bank roll and only bet 2% each bet, like I said I do a progressive bet, so if a bet does lose, then we will bet what we loss on the next bet plus the 2% profit.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5344 on: October 23, 2013, 03:55:50 pm »

I feel NHL is some what easier to predict but once again Vegas does a pretty good job on the lines. Feel free to follow,  all ask is set a bank roll and only bet 2% each bet, like I said I do a progressive bet, so if a bet does lose, then we will bet what we loss on the next bet plus the 2% profit.

very similar to how I bet blackjack
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5345 on: October 23, 2013, 03:58:38 pm »

very similar to how I bet blackjack

Very true, that the way I play BlackJack as well.. Lets make some money!!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5346 on: October 23, 2013, 04:01:49 pm »

Very true, that the way I play BlackJack as well.. Lets make some money!!

since my bankroll isn't very large, 2% wouldn't be very much. actually, $25 is the smallest wager allowed.
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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5347 on: October 23, 2013, 04:08:11 pm »

very similar to how I bet blackjack

Hold off on the STL bet until a few mins before first pitch. The line is moving up, public is pounding Boston, so you won't have to bet as much to win the  2%

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Spikes

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5348 on: October 23, 2013, 04:10:13 pm »

since my bankroll isn't very large, 2% wouldn't be very much. actually, $25 is the smallest wager allowed.

That fine.  $25 per bet can equal a couple hundred or more a week to cash out. Got to start somewhere, Right?
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5349 on: October 23, 2013, 04:10:20 pm »

its at +110 on mine
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