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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 329029 times)

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5250 on: October 15, 2013, 06:48:16 pm »

anyone on the western petrinos at -3 tonight? over is also 62, which both teams average 30+ per game with less than effective defenses.

Great value. I'm getting -3.5 at +105. It's good for a 2 unit play for me.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5251 on: October 15, 2013, 07:02:14 pm »

ULL ML +150/ 1u to win 1.5
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5252 on: October 15, 2013, 09:43:28 pm »

Florida -3 (Looks like line is -3.5 everywhere I look now) Too much Def, not worried about starting RB out, as backups are really good. Mizzu starting new redshirt freshman Maty Mauk, which I believe has thrown only 5 or 6 passes on the year. Vegas books were at -1 Mizzu before QB got hurt. I think Franklin was worth a lot more than -4.

BYU anything -10 and under is good against overrated Houston team. BYU looks like they are getting better and they have a really good defense.

I like Miami against UNC, but with it being an away game on the road on a Thursday, those are just weird games. I'd prefer to buy down to -7, although they are easily a 2 TD+ better team.

I'm in love with Utah, even if they are on the road and they are getting points. It was +5 when I saw it the other day, but I think it's come down to +4.5. They should dominate this game and Utah has been in some tough games already this year. Yes, I know they just came off a big win at Stanford, but give me the points all day please.

I love Auburn getting +13.5 against A&M. I'm not sure if A&M's best DB is going to be out, as he was injured in the last game, but Auburn has a darn good team this year. Their only loss was to LSU by 2 TDs, and this was after being down 21-0. They had 3 turnovers to LSU's 2, and other than that the stats were pretty close. That was Auburn's 1st road game of the year, and they've continued to get better. I can seriously see Auburn making a game of this and possibly winning.  Buying the hook isn't a bad idea either. They will also be in some of my teasers.

I like Oregon St again against an over-matched Cal team. The spread can still be had for -10, and this is a good one to tease or ML parlay with other plays.

I also like Purdue +26.5, even though Mich St is getting more going on offense. I think Purdue can stay in this game just enough to cover a large spread, particularly against a Mich St team that's not had a tendency to score a ton of points.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2013, 09:58:33 pm by nughaud »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5253 on: October 15, 2013, 11:19:18 pm »

Congrats & Good Call on the ULL ML action!  That took stones ... and paid off.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5254 on: October 16, 2013, 07:47:17 am »

Congrats & Good Call on the ULL ML action!  That took stones ... and paid off.

Appreciate it. Have another one I'm looking at it and would like hear what the systems have to say: Cincy -14?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5255 on: October 16, 2013, 11:05:23 am »

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5256 on: October 16, 2013, 11:06:18 am »

Lost 2 MLB plays in a row. Gotta get back on track....

Dodgers -160.   5 units
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5257 on: October 16, 2013, 01:07:23 pm »

Thanks sir pigs.

Added Cincy -13.5/ 2.5u

Left on the radar:

MIZ +3
MIZ/FL u44.5
UGA/Vandy o61.5
WF/MD u50
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5258 on: October 16, 2013, 03:55:20 pm »

I didn't get a chance to answer your question on Cincy before you made the play.  Nothing really jumps out on that game.  My favorite systems are fairly evenly divided on that game, but the general consensus of all systems leans Cincy (Avg 14.6, Med. 15.1). Two of the better systems see it as an 18 point game or 16 point game.

Now I'm disappointed that the system data that I needed didn't get here until Wed. morning (after the Tues. game).  The three games that come up in the best combination of positive trends is East Carolina, Akron, and ULL.  Oh well, I probably would have passed on ULL on the basis that it was a Tuesday game and I doubt the systems know how to account for Tuesday games. 

Virtually all of them also have MIZ, but I don't think the systems can adequately account for Georgia's injuries (in weighing MIZ's win last week), and I don't think they can adequately account for MIZ losing it's star, veteran QB for this week.  Too many question marks for my taste.

Here's what I've done so far:

Bama -28  2 units
Toledo - 7   3 units
Rice -17.5  3 units
E.Carolina -22.5   3 units
Ore St. -9.5   3 units
Akron -7  3 units
Ball St. -18.5  2 units
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5259 on: October 16, 2013, 04:49:19 pm »

I didn't get a chance to answer your question on Cincy before you made the play.  Nothing really jumps out on that game.  My favorite systems are fairly evenly divided on that game, but the general consensus of all systems leans Cincy (Avg 14.6, Med. 15.1). Two of the better systems see it as an 18 point game or 16 point game.

Now I'm disappointed that the system data that I needed didn't get here until Wed. morning (after the Tues. game).  The three games that come up in the best combination of positive trends is East Carolina, Akron, and ULL.  Oh well, I probably would have passed on ULL on the basis that it was a Tuesday game and I doubt the systems know how to account for Tuesday games. 

Virtually all of them also have MIZ, but I don't think the systems can adequately account for Georgia's injuries (in weighing MIZ's win last week), and I don't think they can adequately account for MIZ losing it's star, veteran QB for this week.  Too many question marks for my taste.

Here's what I've done so far:

Bama -28  2 units
Toledo - 7   3 units
Rice -17.5  3 units
E.Carolina -22.5   3 units
Ore St. -9.5   3 units
Akron -7  3 units
Ball St. -18.5  2 units

Yeah, I didn't really want to before hearing what you had to say about it but the line dropped to 13.5 in the meantime and couldn't pass it up. Hate laying multiples of sevens.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5260 on: October 16, 2013, 08:47:21 pm »

Hate laying multiples of sevens.

I paid for that lesson last weekend.  I still have a few this week, but I tried to kept them to a minimum.  That's actually one of the filters that I developed this week to help find a few of those 12 for 12 trends.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5261 on: October 16, 2013, 08:47:29 pm »

I played Detroit -111 but was on the softball fields so I didn't get to post it. Here is my ticket from topbet.

Play Time:   2013-10-16 20:05
Selection:   Detroit to win
Boston Pitcher:   (R) J PEAVY
Detroit Pitcher:   (R) D FISTER
Pitcher Declaration:   LISTED
Odds:   -111
Bet Type:   MoneyLine
Bet Odds:   -111
Bet Amount:   $525.00
Bet Payout:   $997.97
Won Amount:   Wager Pending
Time Placed:   2013-10-16 19:48:57


I fall on the mercy of the courts to allow it to count. It's only the 4th inning so much can change. But it was an official play I made.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5262 on: October 16, 2013, 10:32:25 pm »

Cool here sir pigs.

LSU -8/ 4u (Biggest play of the year thus far)
UGA/Vandy o61.5/ 2.5u

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5263 on: October 16, 2013, 11:22:34 pm »

Here's what I've done so far:

Bama -28  2 units
Toledo - 7   3 units
Rice -17.5  3 units
E.Carolina -22.5   3 units
Ore St. -9.5   3 units
Akron -7  3 units
Ball St. -18.5  2 units

Added:
Army +2.5  1 unit
N. TX -6.5  1 unit

Also added 20, tiny 3-team parlays with these teams for a combined total of 2 units:
Toledo - 8.5
Rice -18
E.Carolina -22.5   
Ore St. -10
Akron -6.5
Ball St. -18.5 
« Last Edit: October 17, 2013, 09:59:00 am by DadVader1 »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5264 on: October 17, 2013, 12:37:34 am »

oh, it definitely counts. I pretty much believe the regulars here. Not that I have to because it's in black and white, but still.

I'm going to look at a few things tomorrow, but this weekend has some potential.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5265 on: October 17, 2013, 09:52:08 am »

oh, it definitely counts. I pretty much believe the regulars here.

You have great "thread cred".
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5266 on: October 17, 2013, 10:08:45 am »

Added:
Army +2.5  1 unit
N. TX -6.5  1 unit

Also added 20, tiny 3-team parlays with these teams for a combined total of 2 units:
Toledo - 8.5
Rice -18
E.Carolina -22.5   
Ore St. -10
Akron -6.5
Ball St. -18.5 


Like the UNT play. Since I already have 6 plays this week, I'm thinking about throwing all my other leans in 20 dollar parlay which would include UNT.

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5267 on: October 17, 2013, 10:47:43 am »

Yes, UNT came up in a few nice trends of 15+ hitting at over 90%, and a few larger trends of 50+ hitting at over 70%.  I've been impressed by UNT and underwhelmed by LT, and the stats seem to support the play.  UNT has small edges in passing O v. passing D and rushing O v. rushing D, larger edges in third down O v. third down D and red zone O v. red zone D, and a huge edge in turnover margin.

I may be starting parlays a bit too soon, but they were very good to me during bowl season last year, and I now have a few sample sizes of over 50 hitting at over 70% along with some nice subsets hitting much higher, so I thought I would test the waters with a small group of parlays this week.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5268 on: October 17, 2013, 01:59:02 pm »

Well guys I'm back to take my lumps. Never quite had a season like this. All my profits on the season were drained by that dreadful week, and I was crushed by the Michigan loss. I think Paterno somehow had a hand in that one. Anyways sitting YTD 28-30 -3 units. I'll still post plays here and there if you want to fade me, but might be a good idea for me to dial it back a couple games a week.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5269 on: October 17, 2013, 03:00:42 pm »

MLB:
Tigers/sox o7   2 units

NCAAF:
Miami -9.5 (bought down from 10) 1 unit

NFL:
Hawks/cards o40  1 unit

NHL:
Blue jackets +130  1 unit

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5270 on: October 17, 2013, 04:57:16 pm »

Miami -9  2*
Oregon St -10  1*
Florida -3  1*
Oklahoma -22.5  1*

official picks for the weekend, maybe more coming.

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5271 on: October 17, 2013, 05:04:51 pm »

oh, it definitely counts. I pretty much believe the regulars here.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5272 on: October 17, 2013, 05:06:04 pm »

You have great "thread cred".

#ThreadCred

.....nice, +1
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5273 on: October 17, 2013, 06:21:17 pm »

UNC/MIA u65/ 1.5u

Came real close to playing UNC +9.5. I see MIA coming out flat.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5274 on: October 17, 2013, 06:43:50 pm »

Whoa. Vader. UNT to -3.5.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5275 on: October 17, 2013, 06:54:35 pm »

UNC/MIA u65/ 1.5u

Came real close to playing UNC +9.5. I see MIA coming out flat.

A bookie over on therx that posts his needs based on what he's had coming in, has UNC +9.5 as a "monster" play and over the total. Basically what he's saying is that he's had a huge amount of money come in on Miami and the under.

It didn't faze me as i'm still on Miami as the biggest play of my weekend so far.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5276 on: October 17, 2013, 06:55:32 pm »

Crap!  That big of a drop normally means someone knows something that I don't.  Glad I only have 1 unit on it at the moment.  Then again, there might not be a ton of action on an "almost fcs" match-up, so maybe it doesn't take as big of a swing for the line to move (pure speculation on my part without much experience to back it up).  Unless something is up with a new injury, suspension, or something like that, it STILL looks good on paper. 
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5277 on: October 17, 2013, 07:00:17 pm »

A large majority of the ranking systems pick Miami, but enough of the ones with better records picked UNC, so I passed.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5278 on: October 17, 2013, 09:39:49 pm »

Parlay: 1u to win 15u

IN +9.5
Bama -28
MIZ +130
Akron -7
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5279 on: October 17, 2013, 11:03:18 pm »

Saturday card finalized:

LSU -8/ 4u
A&M -13.5/ 3u
Bama -28/ 3u
ECU -22.5/ 2.5u
UGA/Vandy o61.5/ 2.5u
Cincy -13.5/ 2.5u
Parlay from above

I don' think I've had a card full of favorites since I was naive beginner. Really liking this one though. Friday night heat is probable.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2013, 05:06:33 pm by widespreadsooie »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5280 on: October 18, 2013, 12:07:37 am »

Most of the ranking systems like UCF tomorrow, including most of those with the better records, but a few of the systems with better records pick Louisville so it's far from unanimous. I think Louisville's stats are padded from cupcakes, and they looked unimpressive against their first mediocre team (Rutgers) last week.  UCF has faced tougher competition without getting blown out, and I don't see big mismatches in stats, so my lean is UCF at +14.5, but I plan to sit it out. 
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5281 on: October 18, 2013, 12:34:28 am »

I'll still post plays here and there if you want to fade me, but might be a good idea for me to dial it back a couple games a week.

Keep posting them and don't sweat it or lose patience, hope, or sleep.  The last couple of weeks have been tough on a LOT of us, including most of the 60+ power ranking systems that I track.  There are usually a few weekends like that during a season, but it's rare for those types of weekends to last for long.  Hopefully, we're in for a few weekends of more predictable football.  I think history supports my hope/optimism.  Weekends like the last two are good reminders of why bankroll management and patience are SO important. 
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5282 on: October 18, 2013, 11:33:34 am »

Hate to start the week with a big ole 2* loss, but, oh well.

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5283 on: October 18, 2013, 01:44:03 pm »

The LSU game didn't stand out in the spreadsheets, so I didn't research it earlier, but after looking at it, I like your LSU -8 play.  With OM having so many key injuries on D, I think Hill & Mett are going to have a very good day.  Freeze even sounded like he was throwing out preemptive excuses for a bad game.  I wish I had gotten on that before the line climbed but still went ahead and took 1 unit at -9.5.


"It's part of the game, but you sure hate it," Freeze said. "You hate it for the kids. You fear that because of our depth issues we won't be able to adequately represent the progress we're making against these top teams. But that's part of the game. We won't blink. We'll get the ones we have ready."
« Last Edit: October 18, 2013, 01:54:55 pm by DadVader1 »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5284 on: October 18, 2013, 03:50:05 pm »

Dodgers -126    1 unit



Strong UCF lean right now but holding out to see if the line will move back to 14. I would like to play it at 14.5 so I would buy the hook if it got back to 14. Less than 13.5 is a tough call. Back to my chambers to deliberate.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5285 on: October 18, 2013, 05:25:51 pm »

It did exactly what I hoped and thought. Line moved to 14 and I bought the hook.

UCF +14.5.  3 units
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5286 on: October 18, 2013, 05:33:50 pm »

Like UCF but playing bases tonight.

Parlay: Cards +110/u5.5 +125

1u to win 3.5
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5287 on: October 18, 2013, 06:06:32 pm »

So do some curious research on the LOU/UCF I find:

5dimes reporting action at 55% on LOU and Sports Insights reporting actionat 55% on UCF. It's a wash, I'll treat it 50/50. The line has moved from -10.5 to -15, back to -14 now. This line movement is due to DeVante Parker playing tonight in my opinion. He's TB's number one target. He was out last week, and has been listed as a game time decision tonight but has been practicing in full pads this week.

LOU -14/ 2u
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5288 on: October 18, 2013, 08:16:53 pm »

Haven't bet in the last 3 weeks, there were only a couple games each week that seemed like slam dunks

I think this week is a little more favorable, here's a few that I like and a couple long shots that I think could be interesting or disasters and I'm staying off them but will follow to see how off base I was.

Okie State -7.5 against TCU at home for homecoming.  TCU hasn't done well with OSU type offenses, they've done better than most but I think OSU can win by 10.

Bama -28 against Arkansas at home, durrrr.  It doesn't look good at all for the Hogs and Clinton-Dix getting reinstated (like we didn't see that coming) doesn't help.

Iowa +17.5 against Ohio St., OSU wins but I think the margin is closer to 15-17 than 20. Ferentz is coming off an open date giving him extra time to plan for Meyer, I have faith that Iowa can not get blown out.

LSU -10 against Ole Miss.  The Rebears are a bit beat up, their defense isn't too deep, and I think LSU can win in the trenches. LSU has been mashing the gas pedal in the 4th when the other teams are tiring and their depth catches up to them.  I see a couple late scores pushing this past 10 points and Ole Miss won't be able to keep up.

Arizona St. -3.5 against Washington.  Expecting Graham to step on their throats.


the Wildcards

UCLA +5.5 against Stanford.  Stanford's good but not great, UCLA has recruited well and they scheme well. There might be some hangover from the Utah loss for Stanford where they looked pathetic.  It could also end in a 35 pt Stanford win, but I'm leaning towards UCLA beating the spread.

USC +3 against Notre Dame.  It's really hard to pinpoint where these teams are going.  I hate Notre Dame more than I do USC, but I hate them both.  I think the no more Kiffin lovefest continues and a team playing loose with nothing to lose that has stacked talent is dangerous.

Florida St. -3 against Clemson.  Gut instinct says FSU gets it done, my brain keeps telling me Dabo is luckier than Jimbo, but the ACC is screwy so I'm putting my $ on FSU.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5289 on: October 18, 2013, 08:47:27 pm »

It did exactly what I hoped and thought. Line moved to 14 and I bought the hook.

UCF +14.5.  3 units

From what I understand this was due to Billy Walters. Bought it when it was Louisville -10, and then hit it hard on UCF +14. Going for the middle.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5290 on: October 18, 2013, 11:09:09 pm »

From what I understand this was due to Billy Walters. Bought it when it was Louisville -10, and then hit it hard on UCF +14. Going for the middle.



I'm gonna bite. I get that Billy Walters is a respectable capper, but why?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5291 on: October 19, 2013, 12:12:59 am »

Good call Sir!  You gotta love it when you don't need the hook ... or any of those 14 other points that they were spotting you. 
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5292 on: October 19, 2013, 12:20:13 am »

Good call Sir!  You gotta love it when you don't need the hook ... or any of those 14 other points that they were spotting you. 

Thanks. Didn't see the outright, but I'll take it.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5293 on: October 19, 2013, 01:50:57 am »


I'm gonna bite. I get that Billy Walters is a respectable capper, but why?

That dude can move a line by just releasing who he is leaning towards. He has been known to release a line he was on, just so the public jumped on it and moved it his way.

If you are asking why he took Louisville -10 and UCF +14, he was looking to middle, As long as Louisville wins by 10 or more, but not more than 14, he wins both bets.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5294 on: October 19, 2013, 08:30:50 am »

Purdue +28 / 3 units
Maryland -5 / 3 units
Georgia -6.5 / 3 units
Ole Miss +10 / 3 units
S Carolina -7 / 4 units
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5295 on: October 19, 2013, 08:31:26 am »

I like USC +3 @ ND today.

Auburn +13 @ A&M

LSU -8 @ Ole Miss

FSU -3 @ Clemson

Potential upset pick of the day:
Florida @ Missouri +3
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5296 on: October 19, 2013, 09:33:33 am »

Aubie v A&M is a shoot-out I'm looking forward to watching.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5297 on: October 19, 2013, 09:45:49 am »

I don't know what to think about the LSU @ OM game. So many injuries on the OM side, but they are at home and defense is, at the moment, LSU's "weak" point.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5298 on: October 19, 2013, 09:46:24 am »

Clemson +4  5 units
Indiana + 10 5 units

Ga tech -7.    4 units

Memphis -3.  3 units

Oregon st. -11  2 units
Norte dame -3. 2 units

Clemson/fsu o63. 1 unit



Gonna be a GREAT day boys

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hogball33

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5299 on: October 19, 2013, 09:53:04 am »

10 pt teaser. 1 unit
Bama -20
Clemson +13
Texas A&m -3

10 pt teaser 1 unit
LSU even
UCLA +15
Bama -20

ML Parley 2 units
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Oklahoma
Buffalo (College team)
 
ML Parley 1 unit
Texas A&M
Ohio St
Cincinnati Bearcats
Green Bay Packers

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