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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 339685 times)

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5200 on: October 12, 2013, 10:10:16 pm »

BetUS had OM +8.5 today.
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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5201 on: October 12, 2013, 11:02:38 pm »

I hope you didn't really
Yup.  I did.  Really.  Looks like i will pay the piper for it.
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weresoclose

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5202 on: October 12, 2013, 11:12:03 pm »

Deja vu all over again.... Sad. 

Take whoever Arkansas is playing no matter what the line until further notice.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5203 on: October 12, 2013, 11:22:27 pm »

Yup.  I did.  Really.  Looks like i will pay the piper for it.

At least you're honest. +1
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5204 on: October 12, 2013, 11:42:34 pm »

2-1 saturday hitting my 7 unit play with a huge Nebraska win over Purdue and hit ole miss but only for a unit. Miss st. Laid an egg for a 3 unit loss.

Great day.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5205 on: October 13, 2013, 07:49:38 am »

Whoever gave you +8.5 isn't going to be around long. It's been 6.5/7 all day.
That would be a good play for a middle.

Speaking of SEC... Bama is sleepwalking through this 1st half up 3-0 with 10 mins in 2nd. Of course, as I say that they just catch a bomb @ the 1 yard line, about to be 10-0.

Stanford is behind against Utah 21-14 in the 3rd.



Ha. The guy that gave me Ole Miss +8.5 has been doing his thing for over 50 years.  Don't think he's going anywhere until he dies.  When you deal with individuals in different parts of the country you will get wildly different lines.

Guy in Youngstown yesterday had Penn St -3.0 two hours before the kickoff.  By kickoff they had frenzied him to -4.5 and he was still getting action.  Ton of Penn St fans in that area.  Just an example.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5206 on: October 13, 2013, 07:56:13 am »

Packers -2.  1 unit

Bills +6.   1 unit
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5207 on: October 13, 2013, 07:57:26 am »

I didn't do as well as I had hoped yesterday.

Thought Florida would score 7 more than they did against LSU, that was a loss.
Got lucky on the A&M-Ole Miss game and won that one.
Also won the Missouri-Georgia game.
Figured Norhwestern would perform better against Wisconsin, +10-1/2 obviously wasn't enough.

2-2 is better than 1-3 but still makes me a loser. OY! ;)
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5208 on: October 13, 2013, 08:50:32 am »

Arizona +10.5 / 3 units
Jacksonville + 28 / 3 units
Washington +5.5 / 2 units
Green Bay / Baltimore under 49 / 3 units
Rams / Texans over 42 / 3 units
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5209 on: October 13, 2013, 09:42:18 am »

Helluva pick by me on that OU game...lol I lost 2.5 units on it but it could've been worse as I wanted to bet more.

Who would've known Texas would absolutely spank them like that...they have been beyond awful all year. Congrats to anyone who may have bet Texas on the money line at +600.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5210 on: October 13, 2013, 09:44:11 am »

For today I'm gonna keep riding that chief train...throwing 2 units on them -8.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5211 on: October 13, 2013, 09:52:42 am »

Helluva pick by me on that OU game...lol I lost 2.5 units on it but it could've been worse as I wanted to bet more.

Who would've known Texas would absolutely spank them like that...they have been beyond awful all year. Congrats to anyone who may have bet Texas on the money line at +600.

I didn't play that game because I thought it would either be an OU blow out or that Texas would keep it close, but I never imagined that Texas would spank OU the way they did. As I said before the game, because of the nature of the game and the possibility that the team might rise up for Mack Brown in his defense, this was just too unpredictable to play.
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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5212 on: October 13, 2013, 02:41:10 pm »

At least you're honest. +1

Ha.  Thanks man.  Yeah, i am not here to stroke my own ego and prove i am better than anyone else.  If i make boneheaded plays, i own them.

And i never have any amount $$$ in my sportsbook account that i am going to get heartburn over losing.  I really thought it was an easy spread for them to cover tho.  Oh well.

Still alive in my NFL survivor pool tho.  This one IS getting intense.  $100k payout to survivor/survivors.  2900 or so left out of initial 14,900 or so entrants.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5213 on: October 13, 2013, 03:13:27 pm »

Thanks Green Bay defense.

4th and 29????

FREAKING REALLY?

nothing a 63 yard completion can't fix.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5214 on: October 13, 2013, 03:23:12 pm »

1-0-1 today.

Should be 2-0 dang it.
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5215 on: October 13, 2013, 04:57:12 pm »

Deja vu all over again.... Sad. 

Take whoever Arkansas is playing no matter what the line until further notice.

Those good lines won't be there anymore.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5216 on: October 13, 2013, 04:59:14 pm »

Jeff, convince me why Washington covers 5.5.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5217 on: October 13, 2013, 06:14:05 pm »

Jeff, convince me why Washington covers 5.5.

I can't nor will I try to convince you, but will tell you why I played the skins. First note it's my smallest play o the day.

Dallas scored 48 last week against Denver. Only because they knew they had to score early and often. Had a 14-0 lead if memory serves. 

Dallas may win tonight by 25 if they play that way, but my guess is the won't. They don't dictate, but are dictated to.

I see a 3 point game either way. Dallas is not as good as many think, and Washinton isn't as bad as many think.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2013, 07:00:51 pm by Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5218 on: October 13, 2013, 09:18:39 pm »

Welcome back Jeff!  And thanks for sharing another successful dime play!

Louisville -16.5 5 units L
UCLA -24         3 units W
Ball St -13.5     5 units L
Clemson -23.5   5 units L
Ohio -16.5        3 units L
N. Ill -21.5        3 units L
Ariz St. -24.5    3 units W

Crap!  Second bad week in a row.  I picked the wrong week to increase my unit plays because of increased confidence in the data.  Went 2-5 on the week for -15 units.  That makes me 27-19 (59%) and -7.3 units on the year.  I did some more digging on the trend that looked too good to be true and found a few trends of more than 20 occurrences that have hit over at over 90%, and a few trends of more than 40 occurrences that have hit at over 80%.  I'll give those angles a try next weekend.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5219 on: October 13, 2013, 10:41:38 pm »

Saturday:

BAY/KSU o72.5...2.5u...L
BAY -17...2u...L
ORE -14...2.5u...W
WIS -10...2u...W
OM +7.5...1u...W
LSU -1/UGA -1.5...3u...L


3-3 (-2 units less juice)

YTD  Records

41-34-1  55% (+9.5u less juice)
Totals: 17-16 52%
ATS: 23-14-1 62%
Parlay: 1-0
Teases: 0-4 (Gotta stay away from these)

Radar for next week:

A&M -12.5
Washington +3
WVU +8
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5220 on: October 14, 2013, 07:13:28 am »

I can't nor will I try to convince you, but will tell you why I played the skins. First note it's my smallest play o the day.

Dallas scored 48 last week against Denver. Only because they knew they had to score early and often. Had a 14-0 lead if memory serves. 

Dallas may win tonight by 25 if they play that way, but my guess is the won't. They don't dictate, but are dictated to.

I see a 3 point game either way. Dallas is not as good as many think, and Washinton isn't as bad as many think.

^^^^ then again maybe I'm just an idiot!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5221 on: October 14, 2013, 07:14:29 am »

Welcome back Jeff!  And thanks for sharing another successful dime play!

Louisville -16.5 5 units L
UCLA -24         3 units W
Ball St -13.5     5 units L
Clemson -23.5   5 units L
Ohio -16.5        3 units L
N. Ill -21.5        3 units L
Ariz St. -24.5    3 units W

Crap!  Second bad week in a row.  I picked the wrong week to increase my unit plays because of increased confidence in the data.  Went 2-5 on the week for -15 units.  That makes me 27-19 (59%) and -7.3 units on the year.  I did some more digging on the trend that looked too good to be true and found a few trends of more than 20 occurrences that have hit over at over 90%, and a few trends of more than 40 occurrences that have hit at over 80%.  I'll give those angles a try next weekend.

Thanks man.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5222 on: October 14, 2013, 12:01:55 pm »

A&M -13.5/ 3 units

Bama -28/ 3 units (I've never bet against my Hogs, told my self I never would. This is just too easy to pass up though)
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5223 on: October 14, 2013, 12:14:50 pm »

Matt Jones rb Florida out for season with knee.
Nick Marshall starting QB for Auburn will start against aggies after sitting out last game.
More:
http://www.sportsbook.ag/statfeed/statfeed.php?page=cfb/injury
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5224 on: October 14, 2013, 01:53:18 pm »

Missouri also lost their QB Franklin for the next few/several weeks.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5225 on: October 14, 2013, 03:59:29 pm »

Colts -1  1 unit

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5226 on: October 14, 2013, 04:16:39 pm »

YTD RECORDS:

NCAA:
40-28-1 (.588)
       
NFL:
13-12-3  (.520)
 
NHL:
3-2-0     (.600)

MLB playoffs:
15-7       (.682)

Total:
71-49-4 (.592)


« Last Edit: October 17, 2013, 03:06:24 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5227 on: October 14, 2013, 04:25:10 pm »

once again, NFL took all winnings I had from Saturday. Didn't post em all so won't bother. ended up -6 units on the week.

Chargers tonight?
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5228 on: October 14, 2013, 05:14:58 pm »

A&M -13.5/ 3 units

Bama -28/ 3 units (I've never bet against my Hogs, told my self I never would. This is just too easy to pass up though)

Saban does not run scores up.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5229 on: October 14, 2013, 06:09:44 pm »

Oregon -10.5 1*  W  +$54
Rutgers/Louisville Over 55½ 2*   L  -$118
New York Giants +9½  2*  W +$107
Cincinnati U -20½  1*  L   -$118
Duke -3  3*  W  +$214
UCLA -25  2*  W  +$107
Bowling Green +11  1*  W +$54
Ball State -14  2*  L  -$118
Oklahoma -11  2*  L  -$118
Texas A&M 1st Half -3  2* W  +$107
Ball State 1st Half -7½  2*  L  -$118
Northern Illinois 1st Half -14  2*  L  -$118
UCLA 1st half -15  1*  L  -$59
TAMU -3 2nd half  1*  L  -$59
TAMU under 60.5 1*  L  -$59


31-38-4  $830   -72% ROI

Had a bit of a setback this week going 6-9, but there’s always next week. I knew I should have held off on OU, and Ball St is just killing me. Wish I would have followed my gut and made Duke my 5* play, and glad to see Bowling Green come through for me.  Love Sportsbook and their live in game lines. Saved me a few times, but also cost me this week. Rugters/Louisville over was another one of those, “everyone is playing this” times, but I followed like a sheep.

Good Luck this week.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5230 on: October 14, 2013, 06:31:25 pm »

Keeping my eye on

LSU -7.5
Florida -3
Oklahoma -23.5
Duke +2
Miami -8

I'm sure there will be others, but these jumped out at me.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5231 on: October 14, 2013, 06:32:22 pm »

Saban does not run scores up.

He might on the coach who boasted his Big 10 record against his own. Not really wanting to get to much into it because it is the Hogs, and this is a Hog board...I'll put it this way. I don't see how we get into double digits, and I also don't see how we prevent them from scoring 42+. If the last two games are any indication, Bama will have great field position all night long.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5232 on: October 14, 2013, 06:33:48 pm »

Keeping my eye on

LSU -7.5
Florida -3
Oklahoma -23.5
Duke +2
Miami -8

I'm sure there will be others, but these jumped out at me.


I like Miami a bit too. UNC is not a good football team.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5233 on: October 14, 2013, 06:38:24 pm »

2 units on the cards -120 MLB Playoffs.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5234 on: October 14, 2013, 06:43:57 pm »

He might on the coach who boasted his Big 10 record against his own. Not really wanting to get to much into it because it is the Hogs, and this is a Hog board...I'll put it this way. I don't see how we get into double digits, and I also don't see how we prevent them from scoring 42+. If the last two games are any indication, Bama will have great field position all night long.

Could go that way or it could be "the Super Bowl" moment for us. Nah, we are 1-6 ATS this year and Alabama makes it 7 in a row.

The only way I see an Arkansas cover is if we put in a bunch if young guys who are hungry and ready to prove themselves and they play outta their head.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5235 on: October 14, 2013, 10:15:51 pm »

Anyone have thoughts on WIS -10.5 @ IL? WIS is looking like a very good football team, who is just as disciplined and sound on D as Coach B left them. IL is a decent football team but has seemed to be a bit loved by Vegas for some reason. Maybe due to their win over Cincy when LeGaux was still at QB. I think that was his last game before he got hurt...
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weresoclose

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5236 on: October 15, 2013, 12:18:15 am »

Saban does not run scores up.

2012 says whatup...
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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5237 on: October 15, 2013, 01:44:27 pm »

The difference between saban running up scores and covering the spread, is his second and third teams. 

Even if he makes an effort not to run up the scoreby substituting, those kids will still want to put in their best effort.

The question then is, can their second team outscore our first team.  IMO.
And i think that is a big ol' yes.  Just chiming in.  I am not betting this game.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5238 on: October 15, 2013, 03:16:11 pm »

Here are a few of my early leans.  I still only have about half of the systems that I need for a complete picture, but here is what I have so far:

The spreadsheets love East Carolina -22.5 v. Southern Miss.  It falls in some fairly large trends hitting over 70%, a few mid-size trends hitting over 80%, a couple of small trends hitting over 90%, and a couple of trends that have hit 12 for 12 and 11 for 11.

A few more that the spreadsheets really like so far are:
Oregon St. -10 v. Cal
Akron -7 @ Miami(OH)
Toledo -7.5 v. Navy
Rice -17.5 @ N.Mx.St.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5239 on: October 15, 2013, 03:28:24 pm »

Anyone have thoughts on WIS -10.5 @ IL? WIS is looking like a very good football team, who is just as disciplined and sound on D as Coach B left them. IL is a decent football team but has seemed to be a bit loved by Vegas for some reason. Maybe due to their win over Cincy when LeGaux was still at QB. I think that was his last game before he got hurt...

If you didn't get it at -10.5, it's already at -12.5, so a lot of other folks liked it as well.  I like Wisconsin there.  I like the huge mismatch between Wis rushing O (no. 5) vs. Ill's rushing D (no. 97).  There are big mismatches in Wis scoring O v. Ill scoring D. and Wis total O v. Ill total D.  Wis at -11 fell into some large trends hitting over 70% and a trend of 18 occurrences hitting at 89%.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5240 on: October 15, 2013, 03:42:56 pm »

If you didn't get it at -10.5, it's already at -12.5, so a lot of other folks liked it as well.  I like Wisconsin there.  I like the huge mismatch between Wis rushing O (no. 5) vs. Ill's rushing D (no. 97).  There are big mismatches in Wis scoring O v. Ill scoring D. and Wis total O v. Ill total D.  Wis at -11 fell into some large trends hitting over 70% and a trend of 18 occurrences hitting at 89%.

Man, I just saw where it's at 13 on my book now. Pissed, I didn't grab it last night. If it drops to 12.5, I'll probably take it. You have me really wanting to play ECU too, that's one that caught my eye as well.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5241 on: October 15, 2013, 04:04:35 pm »

ECU -22.5/ 2.5u
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5242 on: October 15, 2013, 04:28:42 pm »

Dodgers -131.  5 units
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5243 on: October 15, 2013, 04:30:48 pm »

Vader, what do the systems say about BUF -20.5?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5244 on: October 15, 2013, 04:48:40 pm »

Virtually all of the systems with better records are picking Buffalo, but it looks like most of them expect it to be around a 21 point game, so not a lot of margin for error.  It's in a few larger trends hitting at over 70%, but I've only seen it in one of the smaller trends hitting at over 80%.  My site has it at -20. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5245 on: October 15, 2013, 04:55:21 pm »

Virtually all of the systems with better records are picking Buffalo, but it looks like most of them expect it to be around a 21 point game, so not a lot of margin for error.  It's in a few larger trends hitting at over 70%, but I've only seen it in one of the smaller trends hitting at over 80%.  My site has it at -20. 

-20.5 here. Going to look into tonight. Just like it at first glance. BUF can put up quite a bit of points, and UMASS is improved, but just not improved enough to keep up with BUF's O in order to cover the spread in my opinion. The fact that your systems like a 21 point game pushes me away a bit.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5246 on: October 15, 2013, 05:07:28 pm »

Yes, my initial thoughts were that I like Buffalo and don't like Mass, but Buffalo's offensive rankings seemed a bit low to be comfortable with giving up 20+ points and the mismatches between Buffalo's O and Mass's D weren't as large as I had expected.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5247 on: October 15, 2013, 06:16:19 pm »

anyone on the western petrinos at -3 tonight? over is also 62, which both teams average 30+ per game with less than effective defenses.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5248 on: October 15, 2013, 06:34:52 pm »

Yes, my initial thoughts were that I like Buffalo and don't like Mass, but Buffalo's offensive rankings seemed a bit low to be comfortable with giving up 20+ points and the mismatches between Buffalo's O and Mass's D weren't as large as I had expected.

I'm pretty sure UMASS is excellent against the spread too. May be best to sit it out.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5249 on: October 15, 2013, 06:41:57 pm »

Virtually all of the top ranking systems pick ULL.  The average predicted spread is 1.4 and the median is 2.1.  I don't want to guess on what impact it will have to play on a Tuesday when the general consensus seems to be pretty close to the line.
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