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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 342270 times)

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5050 on: October 08, 2013, 04:34:21 pm »

You guys are making me HUNGRY!  Nice smoke ring on those ribs!  We may have to have a sports investing cookout to mourn the end of the season and (hopefully) to celebrate a profitable one.

I couldn't find anything about Ball St. on Google so went ahead and picked up 3 units on them at -13.5.  Now it's gone back up -14.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5051 on: October 08, 2013, 04:43:34 pm »

DV, what do the spreadsheets think about SDSU -4 at Air Force. I've won a lot if money going against the falcons and this one looks to be another good spot to go against them.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5052 on: October 08, 2013, 06:05:08 pm »

The spreadsheets like SDSU -4, with caveats.  On average, the systems have been truly bad at picking games for both teams.  Also, the angles that I've found are better at finding home teams than road teams.  There is typically about a 10% gap between how the systems perform when picking home teams and road teams, so small trends that hit at 70+% for home teams will typically hit at around 60+% for road teams, and small trends that hit at around 80% for home teams will typically hit at around 70% for road teams.  I can usually find home teams falling into trends with roughly 10% better performance, so it's rare for a road team to make my short list.  As far as road teams go, SDSU looks pretty good.  Most all of my favorite systems pick SDSU (including a few with decent records picking their games), it falls in several large trends hitting over 60%, a few moderate trends hitting over 70% and a few small trends hitting over 80%.  They LOVED Navy over AF last week, but I got burnt last year on Army/Navy so stayed away from another Armed Forces rivalry game.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5053 on: October 08, 2013, 06:52:38 pm »

One note: I know that virtually all of you understand this, but I just want to make sure that no one thinks that I'm saying that I have found trends that will actually perform at the 80% level on a consistent basis.  I've never had statistics, but I'm decent at math, and my unsophisticated feel is that, until you get a sample size of around 100 samples, you don't really have a "statistically significant" sample size.  If I flip a coin 4 times and get heads 3 times, I don't expect to get heads 75% of the time in the long run.  Now, if I flip a coin 10 times and get heads 9, I start to suspect that something might be wrong with the coin and that I might expect that the trend will settle in somewhere north of 50%.  For now, I have a few small trends hitting 10 out of 10, and 9 out of 10, a few moderate trends of around 20-30 hitting at over 80%, and several larger trends with 50+ samples hitting at over 70%.  I expect virtually all of those groups to trend downward until they settle in somewhere north of 50% ... hopefully north of 60%.  I'm optimistic that a few will eventually settle in somewhere north of 70%.  For now, when I'm picking trends hitting in the 80% range, I'm hoping that they perform in the 70% range, expecting them to hit above 60% and am pleased if they hit at or above 67%.  As the sample sizes increase, I expect the downward trending to slow down and am cautiously optimistic that I'll finish the season above my current 64% rate.  I'm still pissed at myself for losing discipline last week and adding games that didn't really fit my criteria, since my originally posted leans would have kept me at 67% on the season after a tough week.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2013, 07:09:50 pm by DadVader1 »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5054 on: October 08, 2013, 07:28:58 pm »

You guys are making me HUNGRY!  Nice smoke ring on those ribs!  We may have to have a sports investing cookout to mourn the end of the season and (hopefully) to celebrate a profitable one.

I couldn't find anything about Ball St. on Google so went ahead and picked up 3 units on them at -13.5.  Now it's gone back up -14.

Good grief I want to get on this with you, but i'm so scared of Ball St. I do like Bowling Green getting 11 now at Starkville, but waiting a little later in the week to finalize.

Nevermind, went ahead and locked these in for the weekend.

Duke -3 2* (for now, will be at least a 3* by the end of the week)
Bowling Green +11  1*
Ball St -14  2*
UCLA -25 2*

Maybe adding LSU -7, but holding off on that one.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2013, 08:23:17 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5055 on: October 08, 2013, 08:00:25 pm »

Most of my favorite systems pick Bowling Green to cover, but it doesn't fall into any impressive trends that jump out at me.  The systems are above average at picking MS State games and way below average in picking BG games.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5056 on: October 08, 2013, 08:34:02 pm »

Most of my favorite systems pick Bowling Green to cover, but it doesn't fall into any impressive trends that jump out at me.  The systems are above average at picking MS State games and way below average in picking BG games.

That is just a gut play. I have no solid reasoning, logic or other people to lay this one on. Just me and my thoughts.



Anyone want to talk me out of taking Ok -14 v Texas?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5057 on: October 08, 2013, 09:00:00 pm »

Anyone want to talk me out of taking Ok -14 v Texas?


Because you can get it at -13.5 at Bookmaker?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5058 on: October 08, 2013, 09:11:22 pm »

I typically don't play rivalry games of any kind. You can typically throw numbers out the window in rivalry games, and that's scary territory.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5059 on: October 08, 2013, 09:21:31 pm »

I paid for that lesson last season.  One of my To-Do projects is to start a section where I start to keep notes on things like which games are big rivalries and which ones are typically closer than expected.
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5060 on: October 08, 2013, 09:29:29 pm »

Because you can get it at -13.5 at Bookmaker?

It's free money either way. 

OU will win by 21+ easy
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5061 on: October 08, 2013, 11:48:47 pm »

6 unit MLB winner tonight with the Sox

Lost my 2 unit on the a's. Bases loaded with 0 outs tie game and couldn't get it done, that's baseball.

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5062 on: October 09, 2013, 02:23:03 pm »

St. Louis cardinals -150   7 units....W


L.A Kings/Montreal Canadians ML parlay 1 unit ...L
« Last Edit: October 09, 2013, 10:11:17 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5063 on: October 09, 2013, 03:04:15 pm »

been struggling bad this year, thinking of going big on OU and if it loses calling it a year.  Can get them at -13.5.  I know it's a rivalry game but it's a rivalry game OU has owned recently.  This UT team is not very good and OU loves beating the sh*t out of Texas. 

Someone talk me down lol
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5064 on: October 09, 2013, 03:13:00 pm »

St. Louis cardinals -150   7 units


L.A Kings/Montreal Canadians ML parlay 1 unit

Took the STL run line +145 for my first MLB play ever ha. Huge Cardinal fan though, been watching them my entire life (23 years), and this a spot where the Cards will be Cards and win in convincing fashion. Especially love Wainwright against the rook too in a deciding game.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5065 on: October 09, 2013, 03:37:31 pm »

Took the STL run line +145 for my first MLB play ever ha. Huge Cardinal fan though, been watching them my entire life (23 years), and this a spot where the Cards will be Cards and win in convincing fashion. Especially love Wainwright against the rook too in a deciding game.

It's a great spot to make some money. I expect wainwright to wainwright in front of a insane stl crowd.

But surely you meant -145 instead of +145. Otherwise, I'm getting reamed by my book...;)
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5066 on: October 09, 2013, 03:38:10 pm »

Took my Thursday night heat on Monday with Rutgers +17, kicking myself now. Figured the line wouldn't get any higher. Not sure why though. Friday night heat just locked in and it's Cincy/Temple u51.5. Like this play quite a bit. 1.5 units on RUT. 2 on the Friday under.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5067 on: October 09, 2013, 04:23:51 pm »

made the mistake of looking at the bottom of page 101... damn food porn I tell ya. 

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5068 on: October 09, 2013, 04:52:17 pm »

It's a great spot to make some money. I expect wainwright to wainwright in front of a insane stl crowd.

But surely you meant -145 instead of +145. Otherwise, I'm getting reamed by my book...;)

Well, it's +145 on the run line. Giving up 1.5 runs. Still love that value though. How is the ML -165 (on my book) and then -1.5 is +145? One run accounting for +110 odd shift?
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Baseball Hog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5069 on: October 09, 2013, 04:58:12 pm »

Anybody like Teasers on here?  I've been successful going big on pairing two 6-7 point favorites teased to pick 'ems.  College and NFL.

This weeks is LSU and A&M straight up.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5070 on: October 09, 2013, 05:00:51 pm »

For Thursday, I took Louisville -16.5 for 5 units (bought the hook).  Glad I got it before it jumped to -19, but I'm nervous about being on the opposite side of widespread.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5071 on: October 09, 2013, 05:13:02 pm »

Well, it's +145 on the run line. Giving up 1.5 runs. Still love that value though. How is the ML -165 (on my book) and then -1.5 is +145? One run accounting for +110 odd shift?

My fault. I misread.

I rarely play the run line in baseball.  Especially in a game of this magnitude. It's gonna be difficult to win by 2, especially if the pirates score. I personally don't like the value of the run line.

Of course, I'm betting on a team at -150 so my payout isn't as good. So I hope the cards win by 10 so we are both comfortable.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5072 on: October 09, 2013, 05:38:35 pm »

Anybody like Teasers on here?  I've been successful going big on pairing two 6-7 point favorites teased to pick 'ems.  College and NFL.

This weeks is LSU and A&M straight up.

I like teasers on occasion when you have a few road favorites in the  13 or 14 point range.

not going to do it, but this week i'd do something like

OU -7 at TX, Oregon -7.5 at Washington, and/or Stanford -2.5 at utah

the big players on here will tell you teasers will lose you money in the long run which i agree with.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5073 on: October 09, 2013, 06:35:40 pm »

For Thursday, I took Louisville -16.5 for 5 units (bought the hook).  Glad I got it before it jumped to -19, but I'm nervous about being on the opposite side of widespread.

I'm definitely not as confident as I once was after the big line movement, but I still really like a team like Rutgers getting 17 (19 now) on a Thursday night prime time game. Two very close games the past two seasons and I really think Nova is poised for a great year. Rutgers coach has also schemed against Bridgewater in the past, and LOU only put up 30 against Temple last game.

Best of luck, as always.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5074 on: October 09, 2013, 08:15:25 pm »

been struggling bad this year, thinking of going big on OU and if it loses calling it a year.  Can get them at -13.5.  I know it's a rivalry game but it's a rivalry game OU has owned recently.  This UT team is not very good and OU loves beating the sh*t out of Texas. 

Someone talk me down lol

Man, struggling is part of the game. had you rather lose 1500 in one game, or 100 in 15? For me, knowing I'm gonna lose, I'd still rather play 15 games than one. I like playing games, and unless I get into money I shouldn't, loses don't hurt that much.

Remember the Ball St. game? I lost a chunk of money, and felt bad for the people who followed me. Did it hurt? Would I have rather keep that money?? Sure. But this is one time that "this is a marathon, not a sprint" rings true.

Fight it out, take that big wager on OU this week and break it down into 5 or 10 smaller bets, and enjoy the weekend. You aren't ever going to get better as a capper if you get frustrated, blow your wad, and then quit. Fight out the year, keep some records or a betting journal, and make the notes on what you screwed up on. From money management, to recognizing a trend that you didn't see during the season, to reminding yourself to not bet revenge games in the rain when the home dog is a favorite of 5-20 points. This is what you go through to make that 25-9 run in a year or 2.

Fight on, and you won't be disappointed.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5075 on: October 09, 2013, 09:37:31 pm »

Man, struggling is part of the game. had you rather lose 1500 in one game, or 100 in 15? For me, knowing I'm gonna lose, I'd still rather play 15 games than one. I like playing games, and unless I get into money I shouldn't, loses don't hurt that much.

Remember the Ball St. game? I lost a chunk of money, and felt bad for the people who followed me. Did it hurt? Would I have rather keep that money?? Sure. But this is one time that "this is a marathon, not a sprint" rings true.

Fight it out, take that big wager on OU this week and break it down into 5 or 10 smaller bets, and enjoy the weekend. You aren't ever going to get better as a capper if you get frustrated, blow your wad, and then quit. Fight out the year, keep some records or a betting journal, and make the notes on what you screwed up on. From money management, to recognizing a trend that you didn't see during the season, to reminding yourself to not bet revenge games in the rain when the home dog is a favorite of 5-20 points. This is what you go through to make that 25-9 run in a year or 2.

Fight on, and you won't be disappointed.


+1 Will
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5076 on: October 09, 2013, 09:42:43 pm »

I will be surprised if OU doesn't absolutely throttle Texas this weekend. I think it is hilarious to see Texas suck and hope a fortune is made off this game.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5077 on: October 09, 2013, 10:01:50 pm »

Well, it's +145 on the run line. Giving up 1.5 runs. Still love that value though. How is the ML -165 (on my book) and then -1.5 is +145? One run accounting for +110 odd shift?

Good call tonight on the RL. Cheers...lotta coin made tonight. FREAKING BOOM.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5078 on: October 10, 2013, 06:29:15 am »

That is just a gut play. I have no solid reasoning, logic or other people to lay this one on. Just me and my thoughts.



Anyone want to talk me out of taking Ok -14 v Texas?


Standard logic would tell you that OU -14 should be easy money. 40% chance of rain at the Cotton Bowl throughout the game. 81% of the money seems to be investing in the -14 as of this morning.

The thing is with this game, under normal circumstances you can usually throw out all the of season records, previous trending with regard to point spreads, etc, because this game can and often has turned out differently than many expect.

Texas has the offense to put points on the board but their defense pretty well sucks. Still, this is an emotionally charged game and the Texas players may be playng this one for Mack Brown. Not sure but what the total might be the better wager on this game, though the -14 is alluring. JMO
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5079 on: October 10, 2013, 06:39:39 am »

Question I have for you guys is how do you feel about Florida +7 at LSU?
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nughaud

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5080 on: October 10, 2013, 08:44:24 am »

Like MuskogeeHogFan said, you can throw out the records. This is a rivalry game and will make or break the year for Texas. This is a similar game to Auburn vs Alabama.  OU is the better team, but has historically had let downs in these types of games.  I'd rather not play it, but expect OU to win, but I'm not sure they will cover the 14. Just look at how close the game was against TCU last weekend, when they were winning the whole game. Maybe they were looking ahead.

I think you gotta take Rutgers +19, and there are some places you can buy up to +21 if you want to pay the extra juice. This is normally a good game and if you look at Louisville against decent competition they don't blow people out. This is similar to the UK game. Yes, it's on a Thursday, which can mean weird things, but last year Louisville had 7 games decided by 7 points or less to include the 3 point win over Rutgers. They had (2) other games which were decided by 10 points and their only other game was to open the year, which sometimes openers are hard and they won by 18 over a lowly UK team at home.

I'll take A&M -5.5 all day, even if it's on the road at Ole Miss. This is the 2nd game in a row for them in Oxford due to a scheduling conflict, which also made A&M go to T-Town two years in a row.  Mike Evans is back healthy, and even though they lost their best DL, it wasn't as if defense was winning them games anyway. They only won by 3 points last year in Oxford, but they had 6 turnovers, so it wasn't that close.

Gotta go with the Cocks -6 against my Hogs. Lack of QB play, no dynamic offense and a secondary that seems to struggle, especially in the 2nd half of games and I just see USC East being much more superior, even on the road.  I think it would be better if Clowney doesn't play, as he hasn't done anything all year. Arkansas has proven they can win against Carolina, but I just don't see it happening, unless the Hog's QB has his best game of the year against tough competition.

Oregon St +1 @ Wash St seems the easy choice, and the much better team. It should be -1 or more.

Boise St -6.5 (buy hook) @ Utah St team that lost their underdog Heisman QB for the year last game.
 
Nebraska -14 @ Purdue. This was a game I took at -13.5. I know Nebraska's defense isn't world beaters, just ask UCLA, but they have a good running game and their backup QBs are legit, and I actually like their freshman better than Martinez. Purdue is one of the worst teams around. I think this line should be -28, but a suspect Cornhuskers defense is where the problem is.

Just a note, seems like there are some smart guys on here, so I'm sure most people are checking the lines on Sunday when they come out, and some lines are out late Saturday at a few books. Of course those lines can go the opposite way too.

In the long run teasers will lose, but if you pick you spots you can make up for it. 
Stuff like this is what you need to look out for and pick-up
Good nugget by "College GameDay" research expert Chris Fallica, who said that in the past three years, SEC teams coming off a loss to Alabama are 1-11 when playing an SEC team the following week. Sure enough, Ole Miss, which lost to Bama on Sept. 28, was upset by Auburn this past Saturday to make it 1-12.

The same goes for crazy point spreads like +55/56 Georgia St.  Bama has only scored 60+ points like 3 times in the past 15-20 years and Saban doesn't run up the score. He purposely told backup QB Blake Sims to not run the ball against Georgia St. Sims probably runs a 4.5 and could have made numerous big plays. They took out freshman RB Derrick Henry after he ran 3 times for 10+ yards in the 2nd half. Things like this is what makes you money in the long run. The 2nd half in that game was mostly +20 or +20.5 for Georgia St. One book had it +21 and that is something you have to take, especially when the score was 38-0 at the half. Sure, Bama could score 100 if they really wanted, but that's not what Saban wants to do. -21 would be 59 points, which is reasonable, but then when you realize that scoring 60 points is very rare and Saban has done it twice and that was in 2010 when they won 62-13 (49 cover) against Duke, and 63-7 (56) against Georgia St in their 1st year of football. Literally 1st year! So, to think that Georgia St would not do better in their 4th year of football and that Saban doesn't try to run up the score, these are all value bets, even though Bama could have scored 100 points, and that's no joke. Alabama is 2-8 in their last 10 games when trying to cover +30 points, including twice this year.

Personally I like UDUB +14 @ home against Oregon. Oregon has a great offense, their defense is ok, but nothing great. I think UDUB can cover @ home in the new stadium, but I'm not sure if it's a play.

Ok, end of post, just thought I'd talk a bit. Also, live "investing" is where it's at nowadays. Lots of ways to profit or hedge on previous investments.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2013, 11:19:51 am by nughaud »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5081 on: October 10, 2013, 09:10:09 am »

Thanks for jumping in Nughaud!  Solid analysis.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5082 on: October 10, 2013, 09:27:33 am »

great analysis nug, and will thanks for the post!

the thing that scares me most is how much the public is on the OU ML.  Nug I see what you're saying about them playing for Mack because his job is on the line.  But his job has been on the line since the end of last season.  His job was on the line against BYU and Ole Miss and Texas still didn't show up.  His job was on the line at Iowa State and they needed a halftime hail mary and a controversial TD at the end of the game to win. 

OU has absolutely dominated this Texas team the last two years and I don't see any significant changes on UT's side to make me think anything different will happen.  If anything, they have a worse QB.  Only thing better is their running game but OU has one of the top run D's in the nation.  They make Case throw and it won't be pretty. 

I looked up one stat that I think will be very important as far as momentum goes in this game and that is 3rd down conversion pct.  UT is 69th in 3rd down conversion pct, converting 40% of the time.  OU on the other hand has a top 25 3rd down conversion defense pct, holding opponents on 3rd down 73% of the time.  I think this and turnovers will be the biggest factor in this game.  UT has a better turnover margin but have also played lesser competition. 

I know OU didn't play well against TCU last weekend but I believe that was because TCU matches up much better against OU than UT does.  They have a stout run D and OU is a big-time running team.  Also, OU was coming off a win @ ND and had UT coming up.  Big let-down spot. 

I know -13.5 is a lot of points but if there is one team OU wants to run the score up against, it's Texas (see last two years).  Right now, the only thing holding me back is the public all over OU.  Hoping this line will drop before gametime.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5083 on: October 10, 2013, 09:30:16 am »

BTW nug love your analysis of the Rutgers game.  I am very tempted to take them at +19.  One question I have is Rutgers injury report.  I seem to remember them having several injuries last week against SMU.  Anyone have an update?

FWIW I think they let SMU back in that one becaues they had a comfy lead and started resting/looking ahead to Rutgers.  JMO.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5084 on: October 10, 2013, 09:31:01 am »

The systems have been above average at picking both LSU and FL games.  FL +7.5 falls into one small but nice trend that has hit at over 90%, but my favorite systems are fairly evenly split on the game.  My site has it at +6.5.  Going strictly by gut, I think I'd rather buy the hook and have LSU -6 at home than FL +7 at LSU, but I'll probably sit that one out.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5085 on: October 10, 2013, 09:31:43 am »

Good call tonight on the RL. Cheers...lotta coin made tonight. FREAKING BOOM.

Haha boom baby
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5086 on: October 10, 2013, 09:42:14 am »

Also, on FL v. LSU, in a post-game interview, Bielema indicated that he sent in a lot of tape to the league's officiating office showing FL holding our receivers.  I don't know if the officiating office responds or reacts to things like that, but it will be interesting to see if FL gets a few more holding or pass interference calls than usual this week.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5087 on: October 10, 2013, 09:46:02 am »

Also, on FL v. LSU, in a post-game interview, Bielema indicated that he sent in a lot of tape to the league's officiating office showing FL holding our receivers.  I don't know if the officiating office responds or reacts to things like that, but it will be interesting to see if FL gets a few more holding or pass interference calls than usual this week.
Lsu will get the calls this week. LSU-bama is a bigger game than Fla-Geo in the NC picture.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5088 on: October 10, 2013, 09:48:03 am »

Appreciate your contribution, Nug.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5089 on: October 10, 2013, 09:53:50 am »

BTW nug love your analysis of the Rutgers game.  I am very tempted to take them at +19.  One question I have is Rutgers injury report.  I seem to remember them having several injuries last week against SMU.  Anyone have an update?

FWIW I think they let SMU back in that one becaues they had a comfy lead and started resting/looking ahead to Rutgers.  JMO.

Here you go, Huck....

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/eye-on-college-football/24051180/louisville-rutgers-dealing-with-injuries-heading-into-aac-showdown
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5090 on: October 10, 2013, 10:00:47 am »

great analysis nug, and will thanks for the post!

the thing that scares me most is how much the public is on the OU ML.  Nug I see what you're saying about them playing for Mack because his job is on the line.  But his job has been on the line since the end of last season.  His job was on the line against BYU and Ole Miss and Texas still didn't show up.  His job was on the line at Iowa State and they needed a halftime hail mary and a controversial TD at the end of the game to win. 

OU has absolutely dominated this Texas team the last two years and I don't see any significant changes on UT's side to make me think anything different will happen.  If anything, they have a worse QB.  Only thing better is their running game but OU has one of the top run D's in the nation.  They make Case throw and it won't be pretty. 

I looked up one stat that I think will be very important as far as momentum goes in this game and that is 3rd down conversion pct.  UT is 69th in 3rd down conversion pct, converting 40% of the time.  OU on the other hand has a top 25 3rd down conversion defense pct, holding opponents on 3rd down 73% of the time.  I think this and turnovers will be the biggest factor in this game.  UT has a better turnover margin but have also played lesser competition. 

I know OU didn't play well against TCU last weekend but I believe that was because TCU matches up much better against OU than UT does.  They have a stout run D and OU is a big-time running team.  Also, OU was coming off a win @ ND and had UT coming up.  Big let-down spot. 

I know -13.5 is a lot of points but if there is one team OU wants to run the score up against, it's Texas (see last two years).  Right now, the only thing holding me back is the public all over OU.  Hoping this line will drop before gametime.

All that being said, I would beware the OU-Texas game and if anything, play the total.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5091 on: October 10, 2013, 10:03:07 am »

AZ  +7  2u
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5092 on: October 10, 2013, 11:11:33 am »

How about Missouri +8 @ Georgia?
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5093 on: October 10, 2013, 11:36:33 am »


the thing that scares me most is how much the public is on the OU ML.  Nug I see what you're saying about them playing for Mack because his job is on the line.  But his job has been on the line since the end of last season.  His job was on the line against BYU and Ole Miss and Texas still didn't show up.  His job was on the line at Iowa State and they needed a halftime hail mary and a controversial TD at the end of the game to win. 

Thanks,

Actually I don't think they are playing for Mack. Mack should have been fired years ago. Nobody with that much talent can continue to perform so bad, and simply fire his assistant coaches. The AD is stepping down in 2014, so that pretty much says Mack is gone. This is way overdue, but hey that's sports.

This article pretty much says as much. Will it happen? I think so, but depends on the new AD and Mack.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-football/news/20131008/texas-longhorns-athletics/?sct=hp_t1t_a2

Back to what I was saying. I think Texas plays this for themselves. It's just a pride game. Same as Bama vs Auburn. It's something that's been going on for so long, it's a legacy thing. Unfortunate for me I'm in NW Florida now and so I'm right smack in the middle of all SEC fans. The good thing is I get opinions from everyone and a few years back (8-10) when they were below average, the only game that Bama fans carried about was the Auburn game. The same thing for Auburn the last couple of years. These teams don't care if they lose every game, but if they beat their rival, then that's their "Bowl Game".

Of course that doesn't predict the output of the game. OU doesn't pass the ball that well anymore, but they can run it. Texas has some horrible run defense, just ask BYU, to the tune of 550 yards rushing and 679 total yards in their blowout this year. 
On paper 14 is a freaking gift from the heavens, but if I had a $1 for every time I've heard or said that, then I'd be rich. =)
I'm not playing it, as I'd want to probably take the +14, but I want Mack Brown to get trounced and I believe OU is the better team, so it's hard to take that.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5094 on: October 10, 2013, 11:42:14 am »

The systems have been above average at picking both LSU and FL games.  FL +7.5 falls into one small but nice trend that has hit at over 90%, but my favorite systems are fairly evenly split on the game.  My site has it at +6.5.  Going strictly by gut, I think I'd rather buy the hook and have LSU -6 at home than FL +7 at LSU, but I'll probably sit that one out.

Ya, giving up a TD to a good defensive team like Florida, who I think are a better offensive team with the new QB (hasn't made mistakes) like Driskel or take the sacks, is why I'd rather take the points. Florida isn't a team that gives up a lot of points, and while LSU and Mettenberger look much better in the passing game this year, I can see this being a classic SEC game, like a 17-13 type defensive struggle. So I'd be thinking about the under.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5095 on: October 10, 2013, 11:46:51 am »

How about Missouri +8 @ Georgia?

I would just ponder on this before betting MIZ: How hard would you hammer UGA -8 against MIZ if it weren't for just 5 wins against sub par teams to kick MIZ's season off? This will be UGA's 4th ranked opponent this season already.

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5096 on: October 10, 2013, 11:48:20 am »

How about Missouri +8 @ Georgia?

This line has fallen 2 or 2.5 from 10.5/10.  With Georgia all banged up and having literally 1 receiver left that's played, a freshman RB, and losses at other positions, that's why the line is dropping.  I'm not sure that Aaron Murray is good enough to move the ball all game with no weapons. Just ask Tom Brady last week vs Cinci. Missouri is an up and down team though. They gave up 468 total yards to Vanderbilt and over 330 yards passing. In the previous game they let Ark St throw for 300+ yards. Indiana passed for 377, and Toledo 262. So this tells me to look for a close game and lean towards the over. I like Mizzu at +10, not as much at +8, especially on the road, but the question is, what weapons does Georgia have and can they even stop the Tigers? This could be another Georgia/Clemson type game and a similar outcome for Georgia.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5097 on: October 10, 2013, 11:51:22 am »

Ark +7
Boise State -7
LSU -7
Indiana +10
Mizzou +10
Baylor -17
Arizona +7
Pitt +10
Forgot UTEP +10.5
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5098 on: October 10, 2013, 12:50:07 pm »

This line has fallen 2 or 2.5 from 10.5/10.  With Georgia all banged up and having literally 1 receiver left that's played, a freshman RB, and losses at other positions, that's why the line is dropping.  I'm not sure that Aaron Murray is good enough to move the ball all game with no weapons. Just ask Tom Brady last week vs Cinci. Missouri is an up and down team though. They gave up 468 total yards to Vanderbilt and over 330 yards passing. In the previous game they let Ark St throw for 300+ yards. Indiana passed for 377, and Toledo 262. So this tells me to look for a close game and lean towards the over. I like Mizzu at +10, not as much at +8, especially on the road, but the question is, what weapons does Georgia have and can they even stop the Tigers? This could be another Georgia/Clemson type game and a similar outcome for Georgia.

That's what I am thinking.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #5099 on: October 10, 2013, 12:59:50 pm »

This line has fallen 2 or 2.5 from 10.5/10.  With Georgia all banged up and having literally 1 receiver left that's played, a freshman RB, and losses at other positions, that's why the line is dropping.  I'm not sure that Aaron Murray is good enough to move the ball all game with no weapons. Just ask Tom Brady last week vs Cinci. Missouri is an up and down team though. They gave up 468 total yards to Vanderbilt and over 330 yards passing. In the previous game they let Ark St throw for 300+ yards. Indiana passed for 377, and Toledo 262. So this tells me to look for a close game and lean towards the over. I like Mizzu at +10, not as much at +8, especially on the road, but the question is, what weapons does Georgia have and can they even stop the Tigers? This could be another Georgia/Clemson type game and a similar outcome for Georgia.

agree with this 100%
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