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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 342152 times)

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4850 on: September 29, 2013, 09:17:35 pm »

Seeing Florida game with a +10 for the Hogs.  I've said for months that we win in the swamp.  I think we can easily beat a 10 pt spread.

thm oh boys mite b redy to beat an ole gatr. I mite beg an brrw frm hogvil ole loan. Ole bret will hav them ole boys redy to go. It mire be good of an ole dime ifn you can stil afgrd shoes for them yunguns. Good luck fellers who betted them ole hogs.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4851 on: September 30, 2013, 08:32:31 am »

I'll go opposite you Hawg, ATL -3

Hawgndaaz - 1
McKdaddy - 0
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4852 on: September 30, 2013, 10:04:59 am »

Official Picks for Weekend of 9/28:


Navy -3 @ Western Kentucky -- 5*

LSU +3 @ Georgia -- 3*

Vanderbilt -19.5 vs UAB -- 3*

Oklahoma State -18 @ WVU -- 3*

Florida -12.5 @ Kentucky -- 3*

Ole Miss @ Alabama Over 55.5 -- 2*

South Alabama +19.5 @ Tennessee -- 1*



Great weekend of football, have 20 units on the line (more than normal). Hopefully make up for last Sunday. Good luck this weekend everyone

another tough one here.  3-3-1 for -3 units.  I need to stick to SEC.  Been doing pretty well in there.  Went 3-1-1 this weekend for +5 units.  Think I did well last weekend.  Anything outside of SEC though has been killing me.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4853 on: September 30, 2013, 10:07:13 am »


Overall Record:  15-17-3
5*: 0-2-0   (-10 units)
3*: 7-6-1   (+3 units)
2*: 7-4-2   (+6 units)
1*: 8-14-0   (-6 units)

P/L: -7 units

Gotta get this turned around.

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4854 on: September 30, 2013, 10:11:34 am »

On a brighter note, I looked back and think I am 9-3-1 on SEC plays.  Just need to stick with the SEC apparently cause I can't hit anything outside of it
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4855 on: September 30, 2013, 11:52:27 am »

I'll get my YTD record up sometime soon. I'm thinking 30-21 off the top of my head.

Some lines poppin out for me in week 6:

ISU +9 vs. Texas
IL +10.5 @ NE
LSU -9.5 @ Sip St.
BAY -27.5 vs. WVU
WAS +6.5 @ Stanford- Really high on this WAS team, but I think I'm a bit lower on Stanford than I really should be.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4856 on: September 30, 2013, 12:28:04 pm »

Went on and locked in LSU at 9.5. Don't see it getting any lower and anticipate it moving over 10.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4857 on: September 30, 2013, 02:29:14 pm »

Someone is going to have to convince me to play more than 2 or three games this weekend.

Liking LSU v Miss St, Oregon to cover anything under 40, and that's about it that I see.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4858 on: September 30, 2013, 02:50:52 pm »

For as good as I am in college football this season, I'm equally as awful in the NFL. Shoulda left well enough alone and stayed away from the Sunday night game.

Updated record through 9-29:

TOTAL 42-29-3 (.592)

NCAA RECORD            NFL RECORD 
33-18-1                     9-11-2
1 unit plays: 16-5       5-4
2 unit plays: 6-7-1      0-3-1
3 unit plays: 9-3         2-3-1
4 unit plays: 1-3         2-1
5 unit plays: 1-0         0-0
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4859 on: September 30, 2013, 02:59:56 pm »

Gotta get better in the NFL so 2 plays tonight.


Miami +7.5  2 units
U/48.          1 unit


MLB PARLAY:

Rays /o7.5
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checkraiser88

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4860 on: September 30, 2013, 03:19:00 pm »

Georgia State +55 against Bama! There's no way Bama runs the score up on em!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4861 on: September 30, 2013, 03:32:46 pm »

Someone is going to have to convince me to play more than 2 or three games this weekend.

Liking LSU v Miss St, Oregon to cover anything under 40, and that's about it that I see.


I would take a good look at Baylor. I'll be researching that game over the next couple days.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4862 on: September 30, 2013, 04:41:44 pm »

Here are my leans for this week:

Strong leans.  These each fell in a large trend hitting >60+%, in a few smaller trends hitting at >80+%, and all but one fell into at least one small trend hitting at 100%:

Bowling Green -25 vs. Mass  - UMass is terrible. BG has a better record ATS, a better record SU, Total O is much better, rushing O is better, and third down efficiency is much better.

VA Tech -7 v. NC - Va Tech has one of the best D's in the country, a better record ATS, a better record SU, is fairly predictable by the power systems, and has a better rushing O

New Mex -8.5 v. New Mex St. - New Mexico St. is terrible.  NM isn't great but has a better rushing O, a better scoring O, better total O, and better 3rd down efficiency.

Toledo -20 v. W. Mich - Toledo has been fairly predictable by the power systems, it has a better record SU, a better rushing O, and better third down efficiency.

UTEP +1 v. La Tech - UTEP has a better rushing O and a MUCH better third down efficiency.

Lean: This one fell in a large trend hitting >60+%, in a few smaller trends hitting at >80+%, and a lot of the systems are picking Buffalo:

Buffalo -13.5 v. E. Mich

Please poke holes in these if you see anything that looks off.  Thanks.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4863 on: September 30, 2013, 04:55:43 pm »

The spreadsheets also like Florida -10.5 v. Arkansas and South Carolina -21 v. Kentucky.  I didn't list them as leans because I lack confidence in the O's of FL and SC.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4864 on: September 30, 2013, 05:43:29 pm »

I lack confidence in the O's of FL and SC.

Agreed.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4865 on: September 30, 2013, 06:01:58 pm »


ISU +9 vs. Texas. 


WAS +6.5 @ Stanford- Really high on this WAS team, but I think I'm a bit lower on Stanford than I really should be.

The spreadsheets like Iowa State +9 v. TX, but they also like Stanford to cover -6.5 v. Wash.  Stanford fits in one subset trend that has hit on 9 out of 9.  Apparently, a lot of other people like ISU, because it was ISU +7.5 when I just looked it up.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4866 on: September 30, 2013, 06:07:08 pm »

Vader, the only thing that jumps out to me, is that it picks favorites. The only one it didn't, was a one point dog, and depending on where that game is, it could actually be a favorite, but the home point advantage pushed it into dog territory. I don't know if it has been this way since you started, but just something to look at. I'm not saying it's wrong at all, it could be dead on every one of them. Just something I noticed.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4867 on: September 30, 2013, 06:21:20 pm »

Monday night 10$ free bet :

Player to get 1st first down....

Ryan tannehill +1000
10 dollars to win 100
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4868 on: September 30, 2013, 06:24:15 pm »

NC state -8 at wake looks good. Putting it on my board.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4869 on: September 30, 2013, 06:45:49 pm »

Vader, the only thing that jumps out to me, is that it picks favorites. The only one it didn't, was a one point dog, and depending on where that game is, it could actually be a favorite, but the home point advantage pushed it into dog territory. I don't know if it has been this way since you started, but just something to look at. I'm not saying it's wrong at all, it could be dead on every one of them. Just something I noticed.

Yes, you are correct, and thanks for pointing out that tendency.  Build out takes a lot of time, so I haven't had time to cover all angles.  I've started trying to build another set of sheets to look for dogs, but I haven't gotten that done yet.  It's basically leaving half of the really good games un-discovered.  It also has a tendency toward home teams, but that is just the way the numbers are playing out.  It's apparently easier to find edges for home teams than for road teams. 

One of the biggest pains in the arse about it is that the spreadsheets are so massive that I have to split them up, and it takes a while to open the larger ones.  One set that did most of the data manipulation ended up being 5 files at 200MB each.  I ended up streamlining them and breaking them up into 10 files of 90MB each to make them easier to handle.  One of these days, I'm going to have to learn how to build a database to help with that problem, but I just really like the result summaries that I can build with spreadsheets.  I also think I'll be able to find 7 or 8 games each week that should hit at around 70+%, so I don't have a great sense of urgency to finish building out a set to look for dogs.  It's also faster and easier to add filters to what I already have, so I'm still looking for good sources of downloadable data to filter the numbers.  I should be able to filter the data using red zone efficiency, 1st down efficiency, and quarterback ratings after this week (although it will take a few weeks to build up data on those filters).
« Last Edit: September 30, 2013, 10:11:49 pm by DadVader1 »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4870 on: September 30, 2013, 06:46:44 pm »

NC state -8 at wake looks good. Putting it on my board.

If NC St. can play D like they did against Clemson, should be an easy cover. WF has a bad offense.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4871 on: September 30, 2013, 07:09:51 pm »

Interesting GOY plays I can take on my site, what do y'all think about these?

NC St. PK vs. UNC
BAY -9 vs. Texas

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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4872 on: September 30, 2013, 07:51:45 pm »

Some other early leans. OU over TCU, Central Florida over Memphis, Miami if their QB and rb are healthy, Baylor over WVA, WKen over UL Monroe if QB out,

Poss: Maryland to cover FSU. UCLA over Utah, Stanford over Wash,

Injuries: Neb QB has turf toe, WVA QB dinged up at end of game, UL Monroe QB hurt,

What do you guys think of LSU-miss state and Georgia-Tenn? On the fence on the favs for those two.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4873 on: September 30, 2013, 09:42:49 pm »

YTD records:

29-21-1 Overall
13-7 Totals
16-11-1 ATS
0-3 Teases
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4874 on: September 30, 2013, 09:49:01 pm »

Some other early leans. OU over TCU, Central Florida over Memphis, Miami if their QB and rb are healthy, Baylor over WVA, WKen over UL Monroe if QB out,

Poss: Maryland to cover FSU. UCLA over Utah, Stanford over Wash,

Injuries: Neb QB has turf toe, WVA QB dinged up at end of game, UL Monroe QB hurt,

What do you guys think of LSU-miss state and Georgia-Tenn? On the fence on the favs for those two.

I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4875 on: September 30, 2013, 10:06:12 pm »

Interesting GOY plays I can take on my site, what do y'all think about these?

NC St. PK vs. UNC
BAY -9 vs. Texas



Both look very interesting.  I'd give an edge to NC St. and a big edge to Baylor.  Baylor has HUGE mismatches with TX in most areas of interest, and I doubt that TX will close those gaps in the next few weeks.  These are obviously gut answers and without spreadsheet data, but I like both.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4876 on: September 30, 2013, 10:23:36 pm »

I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.
I haven't found a consolidated place for injury updates. I look at vegasinsider on the odds page and below each game it gives some injury updates. Also, espn will give some. When I narrow down to the games I want to play, I read the espn game previews and even the conversations. The conversations are usually fans mouthing off but some actually give some good pointers about their team and also mention some injuries the national press don't pick up on.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4877 on: September 30, 2013, 10:27:53 pm »

Both look very interesting.  I'd give an edge to NC St. and a big edge to Baylor.  Baylor has HUGE mismatches with TX in most areas of interest, and I doubt that TX will close those gaps in the next few weeks.  These are obviously gut answers and without spreadsheet data, but I like both.
I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash.  With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game.  Thanks for the injury updates!  Is there a good place that consolidates injury information?  It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.
Just found this.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2013/09/30/college-football-injury-report-after-week-5-todd-gurley-marlin-lane-david-ash/2895521/
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4878 on: September 30, 2013, 10:28:15 pm »

Thanks.  That is similar to what I do.

Back to widespread's question about Wash/Stanford, I'm thinking that Sarkisian being a prime candidate for the USC job might be a bit of a distraction, so I'm more inclined to go with the spreadsheet lean toward Stanford.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4879 on: September 30, 2013, 10:31:33 pm »

Thanks Ur!  That's exactly the type of consolidated injury info that I hoped to find.  I just hope that they do it as a regular feature.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4880 on: September 30, 2013, 10:59:44 pm »

Added UCF -10 at Memphis to my board
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checkraiser88

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4881 on: September 30, 2013, 11:13:24 pm »

Georgia State +55(Has Alabama beat any team by 55 points in the last 10 years?)
Rutgers -6.5(Only a 6.5 favorite over SMU? A team that is 1-3?)
Illinois +10.5
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4882 on: September 30, 2013, 11:32:05 pm »

Rutgers has the 93rd ranked passing D against SMU's 11th ranked passing O, Rutgers stats are probably padded (their passing D is probably worse than their ranking) after facing our one-dimensional O w/o BA, SMU has faced stiffer opponents, and the power ranking systems are split on the game.  I'm not advocating taking SMU, but it might be a game to skip.  I like GA St. +55 b/c I don't think it's Bama's style to run up the score that high, and I like Ill.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2013, 08:49:47 am by DadVader1 »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4883 on: October 01, 2013, 07:45:26 am »

Thanks.  That is similar to what I do.

Back to widespread's question about Wash/Stanford, I'm thinking that Sarkisian being a prime candidate for the USC job might be a bit of a distraction, so I'm more inclined to go with the spreadsheet lean toward Stanford.

Yeah, I think I'm going to shy away from this game. Stanford looked too good last week and for whatever reason I've become biased towards WAS. I'm also developing a dark horse bias for Baylor. I think they're legit.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4884 on: October 01, 2013, 08:26:12 am »

Is the o/u for Baylor-wva 64? If so then seems like over is the bet. If Baylor blows them out they will score 64 by themselves. If wva can score on baylor then they should easily top 64 combined. I don't see any defense in this game.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4885 on: October 01, 2013, 09:09:21 am »

Baylor looks legit, but they've dined on a steady diet of cupcakes up to this point.  They're the #1 passing O, #5 rushing O, #1 total O, #1 scoring O, and their D stats aren't bad.  They're the #2 scoring D, #25 rushing D, and #30 passing D.  W. VA will be by FAR the best opponent they've faced, so this week will give us a better feel for whether Baylor is for real.  I think they are.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4886 on: October 01, 2013, 10:11:19 am »

AR ~ 24
FL ~ 10
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4887 on: October 01, 2013, 10:18:09 am »

Is the o/u for Baylor-wva 64? If so then seems like over is the bet. If Baylor blows them out they will score 64 by themselves. If wva can score on baylor then they should easily top 64 combined. I don't see any defense in this game.

Like it.

The total I'm in love with though is u56 SC/KY. Stone cold lead pipe lock of the century if they existed.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4888 on: October 01, 2013, 02:03:49 pm »

Pirates -130 4 units
U/6.5 1 unit
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4889 on: October 01, 2013, 04:47:10 pm »

I'm gonna do something stupid and play some hockey. Looking at some numbers from last year and trying to find the best value bet, I came up with

Winnipeg Jets +120

This is not just a guess, but it's also not some kind of elaborate system. I've never picked hockey. But the way the NFL has treated me, I can't be any worse with hockey.

So 1 unit on the jets +120
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4890 on: October 01, 2013, 05:04:20 pm »

Jeff should be able to help you on the hockey side of things..
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4891 on: October 01, 2013, 05:06:23 pm »

thm oh boys mite b redy to beat an ole gatr. I mite beg an brrw frm hogvil ole loan. Ole bret will hav them ole boys redy to go. It mire be good of an ole dime ifn you can stil afgrd shoes for them yunguns. Good luck fellers who betted them ole hogs.

Please tell me that wasn't your sockpuppet.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4892 on: October 01, 2013, 07:58:46 pm »

I'm gonna do something stupid and play some hockey. Looking at some numbers from last year and trying to find the best value bet, I came up with

Winnipeg Jets +120

This is not just a guess, but it's also not some kind of elaborate system. I've never picked hockey. But the way the NFL has treated me, I can't be any worse with hockey.

So 1 unit on the jets +120

Hockey betting is a combo of the crap league NBA ( meaning travel and such).  And a HOT GOALIE.

I like teams with serious firepower as well and often play the 1.5 goal line instead of money line. Varies though.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4893 on: October 01, 2013, 08:11:49 pm »

Hockey betting is a combo of the crap league NBA ( meaning travel and such).  And a HOT GOALIE.

I like teams with serious firepower as well and often play the 1.5 goal line instead of money line. Varies though.

Awesome...thanks for the tip. Look forward to anything else you care to share.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4894 on: October 01, 2013, 08:13:19 pm »

Please tell me that wasn't your sockpuppet.

Haha...no chance. Just my attempt at typing like BJO. It's pretty difficult to do that on purpose.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4895 on: October 02, 2013, 12:03:27 am »

Pay attention to the following message....

NHL YTD RECORD:
1-0

I may retire betting NHL so that I can say I never lost a hockey bet. Beginners luck for sure.

Big mlb playoff win as a 4 unit play on the pirates. Lost a unit on the under but Cueto didn't have his best stuff. No way that total should have eclipsed 6. Oh well, great night overall.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4896 on: October 02, 2013, 10:56:08 am »

Two more totals I like a whole lot along with SC/KY u55 are MIZ/Vandy o56 and USF/Cincy u48.5.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4897 on: October 02, 2013, 11:25:50 am »

NCAA Picks for this weekend:

Arkansas (+11) @ Florida -- 5* - Upset alert for me here. Saw good things from us against aggies. Florida a little overrated IMO. Think we goes down there and keep this one close.

Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee -- 2* - Tennessee has tough time keeping up with good O's.

LSU (-9.5) @ Miss St -- 2* - LSU will not be happy after that loss. Look for them to take it out on a bad Miss St. Team

Auburn (+2.5) vs Ole Miss -- 1* - Pretty torn here. Think Ole Miss better talent but Auburn has improved every week and they have had an extra week to prepare. Also at home. Think this one goes down to the wire.

South Carolina (-21) vs Kentucky -- 1* - Night game at home after a close call on the road. I look for them to be ready. Kentucky no offense. 1* because it's a lot of points.

Vanderbilt (-1.5) vs Mizzou -- 1* - Have seen Vandy put up some good fights already, will be Mizzou's first real competition this year. Again, night game at home for Vandy. they know this is a must win, like them here.

Arkansas ML (+345) -- .5* - Again, upset alert. Think we give Florida all they can take. We looked good and Allen will be back for second straight week. More reps, more comfortable, should be better here. Also, Florida offense not that impressive, our D line pretty good. Think this one stays close.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4898 on: October 02, 2013, 11:27:20 am »

Second favorite sport has begun. Base most of my picks off a back-to-back system I've been gathering stats on covering the last two years. Follow some trends on there. 1* = 1 unit, 2* = 2 units, etc. I will tell you whether it's a B2B spreadsheet play or just a normal play.

Spreadsheet Plays 10-2:

Flyers -.5 (+119) -- 1*
Flyers -1.5 (+210) -- .5*
Leafs @ Flyers O5.5 (-135) -- 1*

Last year Leafs were 4-5 in B2B situations (not too bad). However, when those games were on the road they were 2-4. Also, teams that won the first road game of b2b road games went on to lose the second road game 65% of the time. Side note, out of the Leafs 5 losses last year in B2B games, 4 of them came by 2 goals or more (hence why i'm taking a shot at the Flyers -1.5).

In regards to totals, 6 of the 9 Leafs B2B games last year went O5.5 goals.


Normal Plays 10-2:

Redwings -.5 (-115) -- 1*
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4899 on: October 02, 2013, 01:58:08 pm »

MLB:
Indians +103   3 units
U 7.5   1 unit

NHL
Colorado/Anaheim o5.5.  1 unit
Toronto/Philadelphia o5.5 1 unit
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