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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340944 times)

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4700 on: September 26, 2013, 04:30:07 pm »

Gotta wonder if that is what Vegas wants everyone to think?


Could be.
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4701 on: September 26, 2013, 04:57:51 pm »

Didn't bet last week because I didn't like the games or the match ups, glad I didn't because I'd have gotten torched.  Though my NFL picks did well.


I just looked at the slate for this week and here's a couple that I think have good probabilities.


Tonight I like Iowa St. getting the 3 pts.   I'm not gonna play the ACC game but I like GT covering 7 and taking the over.  I have a feeling it might be a shootout type of game for those 2 teams.


On Sat.

Middle TN St. getting 24 pts against BYU is interesting.
S. Carolina only having to cover 7 against UCF.
SMU getting 19 against TCU.
The over in the Tennessee/S. Alabama game (53).
The under in Duke/Troy (68.5).
LSU getting 3 against Georgia, and I like the under in the game too (62)  I could see a total score at 59-60.
Arizona getting 10 at Washington
Wyoming needing to cover 12 against Texas St.
Stanford covering 9 against Washington St.
Boise St. covering 28 against Southern Miss


In games of interest

If we had Brandon Allen 100% I'd have taken the hogs and +6, We have who we have so the smart play is A&M at -15, but I still think we match up better against A&M than anyone realizes.   So if I'm gonna be heartbroken I might as well be broke too.  I'm not playing the game but if I were I'd put my $ on Arkansas so my heart and my wallet won't be fighting each other.

Wisconsin +7 against OSU.   I've been riding Wisconsin so far and haven't lost yet, Bielema left them in pretty good shape and I like Andersen as a coach.  Not sure if they win, likely won't, but I think it'll be a close game and the Badgers can cover.
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4702 on: September 26, 2013, 05:06:38 pm »

At A&M -15 you guys had better be careful.  I know I've pointed this out a couple times but HV has lost every single game they bet heavy on together.  All of em this year.  Beware.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4703 on: September 26, 2013, 05:23:03 pm »

anyone selse like the yankees to win tonight to avoid the sweep?



btw adding one
5323 F.Gore rushing yards over 78½ +130
3 units
« Last Edit: September 26, 2013, 06:29:04 pm by billyjoeozark »
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4704 on: September 26, 2013, 05:32:55 pm »

A&M just went from -15 to -14 on 5Dimes pretty quickly.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4705 on: September 26, 2013, 06:39:44 pm »

Add:

Army/La Tech u52.5
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4706 on: September 26, 2013, 08:07:57 pm »

OK, GT is killing me. 2 T/O's, just 21 yards less offense than Va Tech when they should have at least 200 yds and they are winning the TOP at halftime? I know VT has a good defense, but jiminee! 
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4707 on: September 26, 2013, 08:14:32 pm »

OK, GT is killing me. 2 T/O's, just 21 yards less offense than Va Tech when they should have at least 200 yds and they are winning the TOP at halftime? I know VT has a good defense, but jiminee!
No va tech has an elite defense and plays well on road and openers in confrence. Also have a vet qb.

It ain't over yet I don't feel comfortible in my ml wager yet. Game will get tight book it


Hopkins is 4 times the player than clowney
« Last Edit: September 26, 2013, 09:14:53 pm by billyjoeozark »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4708 on: September 26, 2013, 08:18:06 pm »

I'm finished with the NFL. Just gonna be a 1 unit loss, but I'm not even close.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4709 on: September 26, 2013, 08:29:04 pm »

No va tech has an elite defense and plays well on road and openers in confrence. Also have a vet qb.

It ain't over yet I don't feel comfortible in my ml wager yet. Game will get tight book it

GT will have to score three TD's and shut out Va Tech the rest of the way for this to come out good for me and I kinda doubt that is going to happen in 2 quarters, but stranger things have happened.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4710 on: September 26, 2013, 09:52:31 pm »

If Venus can find it in her man like heart to lose for me in 5 hours it will be the best week ivevhad this year
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4711 on: September 26, 2013, 10:17:37 pm »

totally off on that GT/VT pick, should always go with the gut.  I was on the money with Iowa St. though, so 1-0 out the gate.  Maybe I'll come away with some gas money.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4712 on: September 26, 2013, 10:37:33 pm »

totally off on that GT/VT pick, should always go with the gut.  I was on the money with Iowa St. though, so 1-0 out the gate.  Maybe I'll come away with some gas money.

if you really put money on ole iowa state big brass balls and hats of to you
tulsa is by far the beter team
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4713 on: September 26, 2013, 10:50:46 pm »

2-0 Thursday.....

Yes, you read right. Thursday night monkey off my back, time to roll.
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checkraiser88

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4714 on: September 26, 2013, 11:25:12 pm »

Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4715 on: September 26, 2013, 11:28:21 pm »

Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

yep
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4716 on: September 26, 2013, 11:29:01 pm »

Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

unless its a 10 dollar one yeah maybe my friend im a big cal fan and supporter but ill be dang gon if oregon really is the best team in the country right now


good ml to win its like 5000 right?  its worth a small bet just realize that oregon really is for real. for what its worth i like cal a whole lot to i thiught they would beat ohiostate
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4717 on: September 26, 2013, 11:31:11 pm »

If you took GT, I'm going to assume you didn't read the article I posted about VT's D Cord.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4718 on: September 26, 2013, 11:34:04 pm »

Am I totally out of my mind going for a Moneyline pick of Cal over Oregon at 20 to 1??  ;D

Even if you only bet 1 dollar, you are out of your mind.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4719 on: September 26, 2013, 11:34:47 pm »

If you took GT, I'm going to assume you didn't read the article I posted about VT's D Cord.

I guess I missed it but I was on va tech. What was the article?
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4720 on: September 26, 2013, 11:37:40 pm »

if you are looking for upset huge ml bets
these have the best chance in my ole opinion
East Carolina +370* vs North Carolina
 SMU +700* vs TCU
 Mississippi +450* vs Alabama
 Washington State +290* vs Stanford
West Virginia +650* vs Oklahoma State

i put a dollar on each jus so i could copy and paste it for you i didnt look at lower tier yet sometimes those are the best moneylines actually many times they are
i dont like really any of these i posted. i dont like oregon losing at all tho i love cal

the best money line other than tonights v tech I'mo is is wisky. i think they destroy ohiostate and i bet like they will to



i jsut looked at lower tier maybe stoneybrroook. georgetown, and grambling. but i dont like those three either

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4721 on: September 26, 2013, 11:45:49 pm »

NIU isn't as reliable as they used to be with Doreen at NC St. now. He had NIU playing consistent, dominant football last season.

Regarding GT/VT, this article may lead you to take the points and/or the under, reinforced my under lean:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/virginia-tech-vs-georgia-tech-bud-foster-hokies-have-been-able-to-crack-the-yellow-jackets-riddle/2013/09/25/df78b9a4-261b-11e3-b75d-5b7f66349852_story.html

VT's D coordinator owns GT
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4722 on: September 26, 2013, 11:48:04 pm »

VT's D coordinator owns GT
lot of factors. vt owns opening day conference games especially on the road. vt has the best defensive player in the nation. vt has the best dline in the nation. vt has a vet qb that isnt great but he is friggin steady. vt has an incredible coach that is one of the true best in the nation. they are a good club. great d lines destroy the veer
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4723 on: September 26, 2013, 11:51:10 pm »

if you are looking for upset huge ml bets
these have the best chance in my ole opinion
East Carolina +370* vs North Carolina
 SMU +700* vs TCU
 Mississippi +450* vs Alabama
 Washington State +290* vs Stanford
West Virginia +650* vs Oklahoma State

i put a dollar on each jus so i could copy and paste it for you i didnt look at lower tier yet sometimes those are the best moneylines actually many times they are
i dont like really any of these i posted. i dont like oregon losing at all tho i love cal

the best money line other than tonights v tech I'mo is is wisky. i think they destroy ohiostate and i bet like they will to



i jsut looked at lower tier maybe stoneybrroook. georgetown, and grambling. but i dont like those three either


Call me crazy but I like the ole miss bet.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4724 on: September 26, 2013, 11:55:06 pm »

Call me crazy but I like the ole miss bet.

its worth a 1 spot if you can eat the los and still buy your kids shoes. i like it a little. ole mis has moxy and believe they can win their players been talking trash all week on tweeter.
they took bammer to the ropes last year.

if you are gonna burn money on a ml id do this one and east caroline. i like georgetown just a little to




also wisky aint a true huge underdog but I'm close to betting the farm on those boys and tripling up my bet i like them.

all this being said i think its a better bet to take points this week. even in the wisky game but im a lil crazy


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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4725 on: September 27, 2013, 12:18:13 am »

If you took GT, I'm going to assume you didn't read the article I posted about VT's D Cord.

Unfortunately, I jumped the gun and made the play before you posted it.  It's a learning process.  Next week, the plan is to post strong leans and let you guys poke holes in them before making my plays.  Patience is a virtue ... darn it. 
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4726 on: September 27, 2013, 12:23:52 am »

Unfortunately, I jumped the gun and made the play before you posted it.  It's a learning process.  Next week, the plan is to post strong leans and let you guys poke holes in them before making my plays.  Patience is a virtue ... darn it.
i feel bad i shouldhave posted a long explaination. we all should -a lot of times jef or will or sirpigsalotch will post picks i scratch my head at and they dont explain and they are right as rain. i knew without a doubt va tech would win i just never took the time to type out why.

thats why im warning you boys now. dont take lsu unless you have done a lot more research than me and have an angle. you boys got an angle on that ole game please share it cause i dont other than i feel bad about that game. also id like to hear about this ball state more. i follow them a little. but i want to go big on toledo but the great betters on this thread like ball state. id like to know why before i make a mistake
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4727 on: September 27, 2013, 12:53:14 am »

On Toledo/Ball St., I haven't seen either team play, so this is strictly a spreadsheet play for me.  Toledo has the better rushing O, but Ball St. has the better passing O, the better total O, a much better scoring O, a much better 3rd down efficiency, a better red zone efficiency, and is playing at home.  Ball St. falls within a few larger trends hitting at 70+%, falls within several smaller trends hitting at around 80%, and falls within one subset trend that has hit 7 out of 7.  The trends seem to agree with the stats, so I took Ball St. at -1.5.  I didn't do much extra research on it, so this could turn out to be another Georgia Tech play.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4728 on: September 27, 2013, 01:32:30 am »

On Toledo/Ball St., I haven't seen either team play, so this is strictly a spreadsheet play for me.  Toledo has the better rushing O, but Ball St. has the better passing O, the better total O, a much better scoring O, a much better 3rd down efficiency, a better red zone efficiency, and is playing at home.  Ball St. falls within a few larger trends hitting at 70+%, falls within several smaller trends hitting at around 80%, and falls within one subset trend that has hit 7 out of 7.  The trends seem to agree with the stats, so I took Ball St. at -1.5.  I didn't do much extra research on it, so this could turn out to be another Georgia Tech play.

Toledo has played Florida and Missouri while BSU has played north texas. Yo r numbers are gonna be skewed because of that. Toledo should be the favorite in this game. Terrance Owens looks to bounc back from a disappointing game against CMU. He is comig off of a knee injury but played last week and it's believed he is close to 100% again.

This is a revenge game for toledo. Ball state won at Toledo a year ago snapping a moderate win streak for Toledo.

For such a young defense that lost most of their starters, I think the Toledo defense having to step up in Owens' abscence 2 weeks ago and again last week, I like them to step up again here. BSU only getting 3 says slot.

Toledo by 10 (moderate lean )
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4729 on: September 27, 2013, 05:55:06 am »

its worth a 1 spot if you can eat the los and still buy your kids shoes. i like it a little. ole mis has moxy and believe they can win their players been talking trash all week on tweeter.
they took bammer to the ropes last year.

if you are gonna burn money on a ml id do this one and east caroline. i like georgetown just a little to




also wisky aint a true huge underdog but I'm close to betting the farm on those boys and tripling up my bet i like them.

all this being said i think its a better bet to take points this week. even in the wisky game but im a lil crazy






I gotta say BJO I am probably going opposite in Ohio St / Wisky game.  Probably gonna put at least 5 units on the Buckeyes.  Thus far it's one I my three strongest plays of the day.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4730 on: September 27, 2013, 06:33:22 am »



I gotta say BJO I am probably going opposite in Ohio St / Wisky game.  Probably gonna put at least 5 units on the Buckeyes.  Thus far it's one I my three strongest plays of the day.
I have heard some people on radio and tv saying Buckeyes are prime for an upset in this one...but I'm not seeing it either, I think they roll Wisconsin.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4731 on: September 27, 2013, 08:22:44 am »

OSU has moved from -7.5 to -6 on spread.com
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4732 on: September 27, 2013, 09:07:20 am »

Toledo has played Florida and Missouri while BSU has played north texas. Yo r numbers are gonna be skewed because of that. Toledo should be the favorite in this game.

Toledo by 10 (moderate lean )

Thanks for the analysis!  I figured it would take a while to get the cupcake effect out of the numbers, but since I didn't start the spreadsheet until mid-season last year, this is the first time I've had to deal with that aspect of it.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4733 on: September 27, 2013, 11:51:27 am »

That scares me some Jeff. I got notre dame and whisky as ny money makers this weekend. I don't see osu even slowing down the run an I don't see the moving the ball as easy. I'll relook at her though
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4734 on: September 27, 2013, 11:59:56 am »

Skip the LSU GA game, even if I think LSU wins

Take Ohio St., based on having a more seasoned Coach
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4735 on: September 27, 2013, 12:57:21 pm »

That scares me some Jeff. I got notre dame and whisky as ny money makers this weekend. I don't see osu even slowing down the run an I don't see the moving the ball as easy. I'll relook at uher though

Not touching the OU / Notre Dame as of now.  Sooners have issues at QB, but Golson out for the Irish.  Can't call this one myself.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4736 on: September 27, 2013, 01:33:41 pm »

Not touching the OU / Notre Dame as of now.  Sooners have issues at QB, but Golson out for the Irish.  Can't call this one myself.


Golson has been out all season though, so this line is properly adjusted for it I'm sure.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4737 on: September 27, 2013, 01:51:57 pm »

Passing tonight on ncaaf. Have a baseball total going.

If I played tonight, it would be small on SJSU +10
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4738 on: September 27, 2013, 02:31:44 pm »

Somebody read my toledo assessment and hammered the line down to BSU -1. It was -3.5 when I posted last night.

Kidding about my assessment being why, obviously.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4739 on: September 27, 2013, 02:31:49 pm »

A&M now at -17.5 on my board. already wishing i'd bet it at 14.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4740 on: September 27, 2013, 02:56:53 pm »


Golson has been out all season though, so this line is properly adjusted for it I'm sure.


Oh I'm sure it has as well. Was thinking there was a possibility of his return.  I don't like this one either wAy.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4741 on: September 27, 2013, 03:16:37 pm »

Nothing like starting your week off with a 1* loss. Damn you GA Tech.

And, no I didn't see the article that was posted, it would have definitely changed my mind.

Adding:

Oregon -34  2*
Duke -11 2*
« Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 03:59:21 pm by WILL CLINTON »
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4742 on: September 27, 2013, 03:19:54 pm »

I like OU to win handedly.  I took em to cover and put them in a parlay play.

I hate both teams and wish they both could lose.  Both of them are terribly over-rated and incomplete and led by dbag coaches and have dbag fans.  This is the kind of game where you just want to drop a missile on the stadium and know a good deed was done.

however, I think Oklahoma gets it done on the road.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4743 on: September 27, 2013, 06:26:58 pm »

Since CBB's tweet, the UA/A&M game has disappeared from both of my books.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4744 on: September 27, 2013, 06:32:43 pm »

I like OU to win handedly.  I took em to cover and put them in a parlay play.

I hate both teams and wish they both could lose.  Both of them are terribly over-rated and incomplete and led by dbag coaches and have dbag fans.  This is the kind of game where you just want to drop a missile on the stadium and know a good deed was done.

however, I think Oklahoma gets it done on the road.

I think Oklahoma wins by 7 to 8 points.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4745 on: September 27, 2013, 06:39:58 pm »

I think Oklahoma wins by 7 to 8 points.

i looked at her all day today and i still like notre dame and wisky

thnks for all the info on the toledo game fellas

adding one today for 2 units
9/28/13 12:00am  WTA Tennis  301 Petra Kvitova +110* vs Angelique Kerber

this japanise tournament has been good to me see if i can pick one last one

i jus put my money were my mouth is
i took a small 50 half a unit bet on georgia giving 3 and a half. i cant believe im giving points to what should be a pickem. i got it reduced at -105. what the heck.
i cant even tell you why i talked myself into beliveing in georgia. i think that maybe south carolina and clemson are really that good while a pretty crappy tcu team gave lsu a little mustard in that fight. so here it is. half unit on georgia
« Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 07:32:03 pm by billyjoeozark »
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4746 on: September 27, 2013, 07:00:57 pm »

Since CBB's tweet, the UA/A&M game has disappeared from both of my books.

Vegasinsiders is unchanged in point spread at multiple sportsbooks but does now list Brandon Allen and Derby as both being "probable".
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4747 on: September 27, 2013, 07:29:14 pm »

adding one today for 2 units
9/28/13 12:00am  WTA Tennis  301 Petra Kvitova +110* vs Angelique Kerber

this japanise tournament has been good to me see if i can pick one last one


Now that's some damn degenerate gambler action right there!!!  I bow to you good sir.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4748 on: September 27, 2013, 07:56:43 pm »

I decided to play tonight...

BYU -23           W
SJSU +10.5.     L

Both for 1 unit

1 unit parlay: W
mtsu/BYU u58.5
SJSU/Utah st u62.5


« Last Edit: September 28, 2013, 12:05:02 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4749 on: September 27, 2013, 09:39:25 pm »

wow, the a&m line got down to 13 after Allen announced to play, now its at -18
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