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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 339655 times)

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4400 on: September 19, 2013, 10:00:45 pm »

I'm confident that if I woulda played ncsu, Clemson woulda won 45-6.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4401 on: September 19, 2013, 10:01:09 pm »

Luckily, I had the under, KC and the under in that game. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4402 on: September 19, 2013, 10:01:16 pm »

was it also shady they didn't go for 2 after the TD?

Don't think so. Would have cut lead to only 11, but I guess if you are thinking onside, field goal, onside TD two point conversion maybe.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4403 on: September 19, 2013, 10:01:38 pm »

I'm confident that if I woulda played ncsu, Clemson woulda won 45-6.

No doubt.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4404 on: September 19, 2013, 10:02:39 pm »

My 3 games I followed you guys in this year.... OK State, Ball State, and this dog turd. You're killing me.  My bankroll would've busted last weekend had I not got lucky on a 4 team parlay to push me back to 1400.  Which I lost 400 of on this worthless POS.

I was on the other side of the ok st game and had no play on ball st.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4405 on: September 19, 2013, 10:03:03 pm »

My nfl pick is gonna lose also.

You guys wanna make a ton of money, just fade every one of my Thursday plays.

Luckily have the under in NFL, but doesn't quite cover half what I lost on Clemson.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4406 on: September 19, 2013, 10:03:36 pm »

I'm confident that if I woulda played ncsu, Clemson woulda won 45-6.

For sure.
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4407 on: September 19, 2013, 10:04:14 pm »

I was on the other side of the ok st game and had no play on ball st.

U bet Texas-San Antonio?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4408 on: September 19, 2013, 10:05:03 pm »

My 3 games I followed you guys in this year.... OK State, Ball State, and this dog turd. You're killing me.  My bankroll would've busted last weekend had I not got lucky on a 4 team parlay to push me back to 1400.  Which I lost 400 of on this worthless POS.


Don't know what to tell ya my man. You can always bet either side of each game.

Can assure you I'm not happy losing that dime. Was a bet I would hve made 100 times out of 100 though. I was that confident.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4409 on: September 19, 2013, 10:07:25 pm »

U bet Texas-San Antonio?

I do believe he was.
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4410 on: September 19, 2013, 10:07:41 pm »


Don't know what to tell ya my man. You can always bet either side of each game.

Can assure you I'm not happy losing that dime. Was a bet I would hve made 100 times out of 100 though. I was that confident.

We are all Hogs and if we are all on the same side of the same game well then....get ready for what being a Hog fan gets ya.....heartache.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4411 on: September 19, 2013, 10:08:33 pm »

was odd to hear the commentator mention that "lots of people hoping clemson scores some more points here"  never heard that before in a game.  That and them not stopping anything on 4th down along with not kicking the field goal sure do have me scratchin my head.

Hate to be a tinfoil so i'm just gonna assume i was on the wrong side and should have gone with my gut which was "line is too fishy and is not moving, something is up"... but my goodness this sure does make ya think.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4412 on: September 19, 2013, 10:08:35 pm »

Lmfao and now a scoring spree in the NFL

Maybe I should leave all Thursdays alone as well sir pigs!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4413 on: September 19, 2013, 10:09:02 pm »

a 22 play 4th quarter drive is unheard of when you're down 3 scores.

damnit. i hate losing bets, but i really hate when i have the little voice in my head pop up screaming something is fishy.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4414 on: September 19, 2013, 10:09:19 pm »

We are all Hogs and if we are all on the same side of the same game well then....get ready for what being a Hog fan gets ya.....heartache.

Lol ain't that the truth.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4415 on: September 19, 2013, 10:09:25 pm »

I'm not as confident in ok state as you guys are. They lost a lot of production on offense and there are big question marks regarding the QB play. If you have 2 QBs you have no quarterbacks.

Let's not discount the fact that this is a road game. Ok st is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 road games. That tells me the offensive production suffers on the road. I'm not always a trends guy..but in this case, I think it's important.

UTSA us a team that I think can move the ball and score some points. I like them to score 13 which means I'm asking an offense that hasn't found an identity nor a starting QB that struggles on the road offensively as if is to score 40.

I think the cowboys win easily. But I'm not sold they win by 27 or more.
U bet Texas-San Antonio?

Right now, I've graded it 34-13.
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4416 on: September 19, 2013, 10:09:29 pm »

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4417 on: September 19, 2013, 10:09:37 pm »

Sorry to anyone that may have bet it following me. I swear. Should have been a cake walk cover.

Sorry

It happens.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4418 on: September 19, 2013, 10:10:48 pm »

I was off on the score, but nailed the analysis.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4419 on: September 19, 2013, 10:10:57 pm »

You never know. People have gotten to players and coaches before.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4420 on: September 19, 2013, 10:11:36 pm »

Getting interesting in Philly
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4421 on: September 19, 2013, 10:12:46 pm »

Jeff, what was the total u played under?
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4422 on: September 19, 2013, 10:13:07 pm »

I mean 4 4th down conversions on one drive? Pretty big outlier in my mind. Clemson should've covered.
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4423 on: September 19, 2013, 10:14:55 pm »

You never know. People have gotten to players and coaches before.

Well not kicking the FG would point to the coaches but I just can't see it.  Why in the hell we didn't see the FG go up I do not know.  Would've loved to see that baby bang off the goalpost so we could've got one more kick in the nuts for our money.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4424 on: September 19, 2013, 10:15:01 pm »

i know i went larger than usual tonight and lost it.. gotta stay disciplined and not try to win it all back at once. gotta keep my patience and chip away at that loss!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4425 on: September 19, 2013, 10:15:17 pm »

I mean 4 4th down conversions on one drive? Pretty big outlier in my mind. Clemson should've covered.

I wish I could count all the games that shoulda covered but didnt
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4426 on: September 19, 2013, 10:16:46 pm »

a 22 play 4th quarter drive is unheard of when you're down 3 scores.

damnit. i hate losing bets, but i really hate when i have the little voice in my head pop up screaming something is fishy.

no kiddin - they didn't even try to throw one deep for a quick score
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4427 on: September 19, 2013, 10:16:56 pm »

Jeff, what was the total u played under?

51
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4428 on: September 19, 2013, 10:18:24 pm »

I wish I could count all the games that shoulda covered but didnt

Yep and that was one of them.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4429 on: September 19, 2013, 10:19:11 pm »

I wish I could count all the games that shoulda covered but didnt

I mean I didn't bet on the game. I'm just saying in general. That stat is pretty crazy and honestly is an anomaly. Especially when they converted a couple long 4ths.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4430 on: September 19, 2013, 10:20:40 pm »

Realistically, they did the right thing by not kicking the FG. When that explicit fool got a personal foul, they were knocked out of FG RANGE and drive back into it, but it still woulda been a long attempt.

They wanted to avoid a block and return. By just kneeling it , essentially, they force the NCSU offense to score instead of a scoop and score.

That's not why I'm upset. 4 4th down conversions is what has me steamed.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4431 on: September 19, 2013, 10:22:49 pm »

Realistically, they did the right thing by not kicking the FG. When that explicit fool got a personal foul, they were knocked out of FG RANGE and drive back into it, but it still woulda been a long attempt.

They wanted to avoid a block and return. By just kneeling it , essentially, they force the NCSU offense to score instead of a scoop and score.

That's not why I'm upset. 4 4th down conversions is what has me steamed.

agreed
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4432 on: September 19, 2013, 10:22:53 pm »

Time to regroup and focus on tomorrow....
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4433 on: September 19, 2013, 10:27:18 pm »

False start: everybody but the center.

Pretty much sums up my night.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4434 on: September 19, 2013, 10:33:20 pm »

Hell Philly will probably score a long meaningless TD to knock me out of the under!
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4435 on: September 19, 2013, 11:23:19 pm »

Yeah, the friggin 2-point conversion and 4 4th-down conversions on that drive were pretty frustrating, but it happens.  With all of NC State's screw ups and miscues, the NC St. td's that were called back, including the questionable out of bounds call that resulted in a 14-point swing, I'm not as suspicious about foul play.  I've made a LOT more than I've lost tailing Jeff's dime plays, and I don't intend to stop doing that any time soon.  Thanks for sharing them with us!!!! 

The season is young, and the spreadsheet is shaping up nicely and is one or two weeks away from having enough data for a strong run at the second half of the season.  With the experience and different angles you guys bring to the thread, I think we're in for a very good season.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4436 on: September 19, 2013, 11:30:26 pm »

was odd to hear the commentator mention that "lots of people hoping clemson scores some more points here"  never heard that before in a game.  That and them not stopping anything on 4th down along with not kicking the field goal sure do have me scratchin my head.

Hate to be a tinfoil so i'm just gonna assume i was on the wrong side and should have gone with my gut which was "line is too fishy and is not moving, something is up"... but my goodness this sure does make ya think.

Clemson was lucky that NC State handed them short fields in which to score. 17 of their points came from starting about their own 40, which is pretty primo field position, another between their own 45-50 and still another off an INT from NC State's own 48. Clemson did what good teams do and converted all of those opportunities to points, but no one knew that was going to happen going into this game. I had this game picked as a 30-21 Clemson win and obviously NC State underperformed, but I never could see Clemson covering the point spread. I am truly sorry that you guys lost money on this game. I'm sure you'll make up for it this weekend.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4437 on: September 20, 2013, 12:15:11 am »

How do these guys acct for the nc state TD getting called back? Amazing.
Moore had this game at 10.42 and Burdorf had it 11.6.
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

http://www.burdorfratings.com/collegepicks.html

Those two had the top pred. ATS through 9/15
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php

And thanks to who posted these links earlier. Great info.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4438 on: September 20, 2013, 07:12:43 am »

Clemson was lucky that NC State handed them short fields in which to score. 17 of their points came from starting about their own 40, which is pretty primo field position, another between their own 45-50 and still another off an INT from NC State's own 48. Clemson did what good teams do and converted all of those opportunities to points, but no one knew that was going to happen going into this game. I had this game picked as a 30-21 Clemson win and obviously NC State underperformed, but I never could see Clemson covering the point spread. I am truly sorry that you guys lost money on this game. I'm sure you'll make up for it this weekend.

Eh the losing money part happen.  taj boyd missing wide open receivers for 6 points I didn't expet to see more than once.

I also didn't expect NC St to convert 8700 forth downs on that final drive.  So although your breakdown makes sense now Clemson still should have easily covered that line. 
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4439 on: September 20, 2013, 08:59:38 am »

Eh the losing money part happen.  taj boyd missing wide open receivers for 6 points I didn't expet to see more than once.

I also didn't expect NC St to convert 8700 forth downs on that final drive.  So although your breakdown makes sense now Clemson still should have easily covered that line.

hahah amen to that.  Alright, let's get it back this weekend
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4440 on: September 20, 2013, 09:24:26 am »

Eh the losing money part happen.  taj boyd missing wide open receivers for 6 points I didn't expet to see more than once.

I also didn't expect NC St to convert 8700 forth downs on that final drive.  So although your breakdown makes sense now Clemson still should have easily covered that line. 

OK, back to the weekend.

Ariz State @ Stanford (-7) 50-1/2

I think this is a good proposition for Arizona State. AZ State +7 and/or the Over? Your thoughts?
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4441 on: September 20, 2013, 09:42:47 am »

OK, back to the weekend.

Ariz State @ Stanford (-7) 50-1/2

I think this is a good proposition for Arizona State. AZ State +7 and/or the Over? Your thoughts?

ehhh after an emotional/hard fought win against Wisconsin and now on the road... tend to want to buy the hook and take Stanford
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4442 on: September 20, 2013, 09:51:31 am »

ehhh after an emotional/hard fought win against Wisconsin and now on the road... tend to want to buy the hook and take Stanford

See, now I think the Arizona State staff is telling those players, "no one thought we deserved that win, let's go prove to them that we did this weekend". Yet another emotional motivation going into this game at Stanford. No emotional let down here because of "how" they won and all the chatter about how Wisconsin got screwed last weekend.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4443 on: September 20, 2013, 10:14:52 am »

Burdorf and Moore are both hitting over 60% ATS and both pick AZ St to cover, but this game doesn't fall into some of the other trends that I like to see with higher %'s, and AZ St. and Stanford are both middle-of-the-pack when it comes to system predictability.  I would lean AZ St., but I would probably look for another game to play.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4444 on: September 20, 2013, 10:57:58 am »

Burdorf and Moore are both hitting over 60% ATS and both pick AZ St to cover, but this game doesn't fall into some of the other trends that I like to see with higher %'s, and AZ St. and Stanford are both middle-of-the-pack when it comes to system predictability.  I would lean AZ St., but I would probably look for another game to play.
Syracuse is a team they have winning big, by 29 and 24. I also like Baylor and Cinn.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4445 on: September 20, 2013, 11:07:56 am »

Cincinnati's qb was injured in the Illinois loss.  The back-up put up good stats in the Northwestern State game last week, but I decided to sit out the Cincy game.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4446 on: September 20, 2013, 11:08:55 am »

Syracuse is a team they have winning big, by 29 and 24. I also like Baylor and Cinn.

Baylor huh... I was leaning the other way there.  Baylor has literally played no one yet.  Their D is no OU D, think ULM will be able to score.  Think -30 is a little high
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4447 on: September 20, 2013, 02:11:20 pm »

Glad I had the under last night, my gut hasn't completely failed me yet. Clemson just didn't look right with no line movement.

Remaining Plays:

Utah St. +7 (-120)/ 3 units
FL/TN u47.5/ 3 units
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4448 on: September 20, 2013, 02:18:26 pm »

One early play for Saturday and it's a dandy.

Hogs/Rutgers over 44  8 units.

For those wondering, I'm 2-3(on here) this year with all 1 unit plays.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4449 on: September 20, 2013, 02:53:48 pm »

One early play for Saturday and it's a dandy.

Hogs/Rutgers over 44  8 units.

For those wondering, I'm 2-3(on here) this year with all 1 unit plays.

what's your take on the under?
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