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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 339982 times)

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4200 on: September 17, 2013, 03:59:24 pm »

I think we had this exact conversation last year during bama week. Somebody said bet bama and if the hogs won, you would have at least beaten bama.

Then I said the same thing i just said about losing

And then somebody said its money they had set aside to lose so they don't mind losing if...lol.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4201 on: September 17, 2013, 04:11:39 pm »

I think we had this exact conversation last year during bama week. Somebody said bet bama and if the hogs won, you would have at least beaten bama.

Then I said the same thing i just said about losing

And then somebody said its money they had set aside to lose so they don't mind losing if...lol.

That Bama was the easiest bet of '12 for this half-poor bettor. Had the Hogs won I'd have been tickled with that account reduction. Where the problem lies, as mentioned on the previous page, would be if the Hogs lost with Bama not covering. Ugh....double whammy.

I generally don't look to bet for or against the Hogs, but it does happen once a year on average.

Simply staying away from the Hogs is sound advice.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4202 on: September 17, 2013, 04:18:52 pm »

Baltimore +3...........W
Dallas -3...................L
Washington-3.........L
San Francisco -7......W

2-2

YTD RECORD 17-11-1


My record this time a year ago. Right at 60%

Pretty much on par from a year ago percentage wise. my money management is better this year . I played way too many early season games this year that I didn't devote enough time to.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4203 on: September 17, 2013, 04:40:03 pm »

That Bama was the easiest bet of '12 for this half-poor bettor. Had the Hogs won I'd have been tickled with that account reduction. Where the problem lies, as mentioned on the previous page, would be if the Hogs lost with Bama not covering. Ugh....double whammy.

I generally don't look to bet for or against the Hogs, but it does happen once a year on average.

Simply staying away from the Hogs is sound advice.

they are the one team i'm too emotionally involved with to not bet.  I'm a Cowboys fan but I've become disenchanted with them over the last 10 years.  Also it means a lot more to go to a College and have a College team than to just happen to grow up in a certain city and cheer for the home team. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4204 on: September 17, 2013, 04:59:10 pm »

My buddy put a max bet on A&M to cover 14 against us last season haha.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4205 on: September 17, 2013, 05:06:04 pm »

i wouldnt advise playing tamu against the hogs. ill.b eable to say more after this rutgers game but for some reason i think this team will play up for a and m. the concerning point is if we get down early will the hogs stick to the ground instead of throwing like crazy which i am 100 percent sure will lead to many ints unless brandon allen can show me he is more accurate


anyone taking toledo and 25.5 tomorrow night? they have kept winning me money all three weeks i think i have to stay on that wagon

i think i may even take them in a ml straight up

they play sat sorry

« Last Edit: September 17, 2013, 05:17:52 pm by billyjoeozark »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4206 on: September 17, 2013, 05:19:41 pm »

Vegas put out a line for our game


Ark pk -110
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4207 on: September 17, 2013, 05:23:40 pm »

Vegas put out a line for our game


Ark pk -110

i jus checked it still aint showing up on 5dime a pk is a better line than what iv been seeing and hearing
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4209 on: September 17, 2013, 05:27:24 pm »

that over under is set jus perfectly to
im definitly not touching anything in this game other than what i played a while back
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4210 on: September 17, 2013, 05:30:31 pm »

Pretty favorable if you ask me. Vegas seems to really like us. Vegas likes us more than our own fan base. They list Allen as doubtful, it's a home game for Rutgers, they beat us last year, and Vegas still doesn't give the edge to Rutgers.

Says a lot
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4211 on: September 17, 2013, 07:20:08 pm »

Pretty favorable if you ask me. Vegas seems to really like us. Vegas likes us more than our own fan base. They list Allen as doubtful, it's a home game for Rutgers, they beat us last year, and Vegas still doesn't give the edge to Rutgers.

Says a lot

Good, compared to last year's team and leadership by the coaches, that is progresss, ha.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4212 on: September 17, 2013, 08:09:47 pm »

It's moved to Rutgers -1
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4213 on: September 17, 2013, 08:33:31 pm »

Anyone else like Utah State +7 @ USC?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4214 on: September 17, 2013, 09:58:17 pm »

The sample sizes are still too small to have much confidence in the picks, but these all fell within a few different trends that were hitting above 70%.  Ideally, I'd like to use more gut/intuition/human judgment to narrow down 60-70% trends by one or two picks to try to actually hit that or a little better.  Here's what the Ouija board/spreadsheet says:

Baylor -29.5 vs. ULM
Georgia -32 vs. N. TX
GA Tech -6.5 vs. NC
Oregon St. -10.5 @ San Diego St.
A&M -28.5 vs. SMU

Anyone know of any injuries or would otherwise advise against these?  Thanks.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4215 on: September 17, 2013, 09:59:59 pm »

Anyone else like Utah State +7 @ USC?

i do

not the best bet of the weekend but i wouldnt shy away from it
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4216 on: September 17, 2013, 10:01:20 pm »

I'll be honest, this weeks slate of games sucks.

I'm having a difficult time building a list if games.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4217 on: September 17, 2013, 10:02:47 pm »

I'll be honest, this weeks slate of games sucks.

I'm having a difficult time building a list if games.

theres some good ones man. i think this weekend is the best ill try to get a list of what i like tomorrow. we traveling to the north for teh game and im in some ole super 8 right now with the crap internet
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4218 on: September 17, 2013, 10:38:00 pm »

Anyone else like Utah State +7 @ USC?

I just came on here to see if anyone else liked this game. I have it at 6.5 on my book but I just did some reading up on this game and it seems like USU has a legitimate shot at winning.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4219 on: September 17, 2013, 10:41:05 pm »

UF/TN u47.5 is another one I really like. I figure UF should be good for a couple more weeks on unders. Their totals should be more similar to Michigan St's.
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thearkie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4220 on: September 17, 2013, 10:59:45 pm »

ALRIGHT FELLAS GET YOUR PENCILS READY AND TAKE NOTES:

Florida Gators vs Tennessee (+17)

I know what you are thinking, Tennessee just got embarrassed by Oregon who just overmatched them in every face of the game. It was a blood bath at Autzen Stadium where they got routed 59-14. Butch is taking his team to the Swamp to face the No. 19 team in the land. A team that had 555 yards of offense against the Vols D in their 37-20 loss. However teams in game 4 of the season after suffering their first loss the week before are good visitors going 105-81-3 ATS dating back to 1980. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 SEC road openers, not to mention, Jones is 10-4 Straight up and 7-2-1 ATS in his career after a double digit loss and of those is 9-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS versus teams with win percentage of .500 or less (Florida 1-1). Florida just suffered a hard loss against Miami committing 4 Redzone TOs. Florida is also just 1-5 ATS off road favorite loss Straight up as well as 2-6 ATS as a favorite coming off Straight up favorite loss. Muschamp is also 0-5 ATS in the SEC after a loss.

Prediction: Florida 27 Tennessee 20 Take the Points!!!!
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4221 on: September 17, 2013, 11:05:55 pm »

Yeah I think Utah State +6.5 and Tennessee +17-18.5(depending on your book) are best bets of the weekend.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4222 on: September 18, 2013, 12:13:07 pm »

Yeah I think Utah State +6.5 and Tennessee +17-18.5(depending on your book) are best bets of the weekend.

agreed.  no one likes clemson -13.5?  I feel like that is a steal.  One of those i'm scared to take because it looks too good
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4223 on: September 18, 2013, 12:25:36 pm »

The sample sizes are still too small to have much confidence in the picks, but these all fell within a few different trends that were hitting above 70%.  Ideally, I'd like to use more gut/intuition/human judgment to narrow down 60-70% trends by one or two picks to try to actually hit that or a little better.  Here's what the Ouija board/spreadsheet says:

Baylor -29.5 vs. ULM
Georgia -32 vs. N. TX
GA Tech -6.5 vs. NC
Oregon St. -10.5 @ San Diego St.
A&M -28.5 vs. SMU

Anyone know of any injuries or would otherwise advise against these?  Thanks.
Oregon state RB Woods out with concussion.
Baylor has some dings but I'm still going with them also. Got this from ESPN
"Here's hoping Najvar and Valdez injuries are minor. Looks like "Thunder" is out for the season after reinjuring his bad wheel. Luckily the Bears are loaded at running back, but the D line may be getting thin."
.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4224 on: September 18, 2013, 12:40:23 pm »

agreed.  no one likes clemson -13.5?  I feel like that is a steal.  One of those i'm scared to take because it looks too good

I've historically been horrible in Thursday nights. No matter what I do, I can't win those Thursday night games.that said,  I think Clemson has too much speed and overall talent not to win this easily.

But let me preface that by saying i haven't capped it...just my gut.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4225 on: September 18, 2013, 12:42:14 pm »

ALRIGHT FELLAS GET YOUR PENCILS READY AND TAKE NOTES:

Florida Gators vs Tennessee (+17)

I know what you are thinking, Tennessee just got embarrassed by Oregon who just overmatched them in every face of the game. It was a blood bath at Autzen Stadium where they got routed 59-14. Butch is taking his team to the Swamp to face the No. 19 team in the land. A team that had 555 yards of offense against the Vols D in their 37-20 loss. However teams in game 4 of the season after suffering their first loss the week before are good visitors going 105-81-3 ATS dating back to 1980. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 SEC road openers, not to mention, Jones is 10-4 Straight up and 7-2-1 ATS in his career after a double digit loss and of those is 9-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS versus teams with win percentage of .500 or less (Florida 1-1). Florida just suffered a hard loss against Miami committing 4 Redzone TOs. Florida is also just 1-5 ATS off road favorite loss Straight up as well as 2-6 ATS as a favorite coming off Straight up favorite loss. Muschamp is also 0-5 ATS in the SEC after a loss.

Prediction: Florida 27 Tennessee 20 Take the Points!!!!

Welcome to the club. Love that pick. It's one I've been capping myself. I like UT also.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4226 on: September 18, 2013, 12:52:37 pm »

i like
toledo -13
tenner -not as confident cause florida is gonna be mad
clemson
over toledo
over fresno, boise
i like fresno
i like lsu

so far
« Last Edit: September 18, 2013, 01:19:43 pm by billyjoeozark »
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4227 on: September 18, 2013, 12:56:08 pm »

My spreadsheets like TN +16.5.  It falls within a few different trends that have been hitting at 70+%.  It's still too early in the season to have decent sample sizes, but I like that play.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4228 on: September 18, 2013, 01:01:50 pm »

Thanks Ur!  Could someone recommend a good site that consolidates injury information?  I know the teams try to keep their opponents guessing, so it won't be anything conclusive.  In the past, I've just searched it out on a team by team basis before making a play, but it would be nice to find a go-to site that makes it easier to clear that hurdle for several teams at once.  Thanks.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4229 on: September 18, 2013, 01:43:45 pm »

btw anyone who likes fantasy football should consider playing on draftkings - just joined and it is really neat, completely legal too as long as you dont live in Louisianao or a select few other states.  Arkansas and Texas can play though!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4230 on: September 18, 2013, 02:39:32 pm »

ALRIGHT FELLAS GET YOUR PENCILS READY AND TAKE NOTES:

Florida Gators vs Tennessee (+17)

I know what you are thinking, Tennessee just got embarrassed by Oregon who just overmatched them in every face of the game. It was a blood bath at Autzen Stadium where they got routed 59-14. Butch is taking his team to the Swamp to face the No. 19 team in the land. A team that had 555 yards of offense against the Vols D in their 37-20 loss. However teams in game 4 of the season after suffering their first loss the week before are good visitors going 105-81-3 ATS dating back to 1980. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 SEC road openers, not to mention, Jones is 10-4 Straight up and 7-2-1 ATS in his career after a double digit loss and of those is 9-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS versus teams with win percentage of .500 or less (Florida 1-1). Florida just suffered a hard loss against Miami committing 4 Redzone TOs. Florida is also just 1-5 ATS off road favorite loss Straight up as well as 2-6 ATS as a favorite coming off Straight up favorite loss. Muschamp is also 0-5 ATS in the SEC after a loss.

Prediction: Florida 27 Tennessee 20 Take the Points!!!!

I don't think TN will score this many points with FL's D having two weeks to prepare. I'm thinking 24-27 to 7-14.
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checkraiser88

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4231 on: September 18, 2013, 03:10:47 pm »

Is it just me or does anyone really like Louisville at -43? They are playing Florida International who has been getting killed by teams far less superior to Louisville...
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4232 on: September 18, 2013, 03:31:40 pm »

Is it just me or does anyone really like Louisville at -43? They are playing Florida International who has been getting killed by teams far less superior to Louisville...

Lot of points to cover.
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thearkie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4233 on: September 18, 2013, 04:31:30 pm »

WHICH GAMES YALL THINKING: WRONG TEAM FAVORED.

I'VE GOT A COUPLE I'M LOOKING AT, WOULD LOVE SOME THOUGHTS.

BYU (-7) VS UTAH

MISSOURI (-3) VS INDIANA
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4234 on: September 18, 2013, 04:42:13 pm »

no one will help you if you keep yelling
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4235 on: September 18, 2013, 05:14:59 pm »

no one will help you if you keep yelling

You're a daisy if u do
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4236 on: September 18, 2013, 05:30:43 pm »

Sorry have been MIA the past few days.  Will update my year to date and start looking at games soon.

Wife has been in CHI town all week and I have been at home with a sick three year old most of the time. Much more demanding than work.
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4237 on: September 18, 2013, 05:40:09 pm »

the game I played I lost, but the Hogs won.  It was Auburn last year, put $500 on auburn to cover.  We rolled and I thought going into it i'd feel like "hey win/win".  It was not the case.  I hated pulling for auburn to score against us and I hated not getting to fully enjoy the beat-down against auburn knowing i'd lost $500.  Just not for me.

I think I feel the same way. My line has AR at +1. Not going to touch it.

I know that Saban does not run the score up, it's not his style. May take CSU at +39.5.

Like A-State at -4.  ----Laid 3.
Clemson -13.5.  ------Laid 3.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2013, 05:56:09 pm by Dude »
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4238 on: September 18, 2013, 06:20:29 pm »

I think I feel the same way. My line has AR at +1. Not going to touch it.

I know that Saban does not run the score up, it's not his style. May take CSU at +39.5.

Like A-State at -4.  ----Laid 3.
Clemson -13.5.  ------Laid 3.


clemson score 65 last year on nc stat.e
clemson is better this ye.ar
nc state is a little worse or even

i think clemson -13.5 is the bet of the weekend ill wait till tomorrow and load up on her


bw what you folk think of
asu over stanford
and indiane over ole misouri ?

bw i like csu a ton as of today to . noway sabenwill run it up against a coach that public in idolizes him
« Last Edit: September 18, 2013, 07:11:51 pm by billyjoeozark »
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4239 on: September 18, 2013, 07:13:53 pm »


clemson score 65 last year on nc stat.e
clemson is better this ye.ar
nc state is a little worse or even

i think clemson -13.5 is the bet of the weekend ill wait till tomorrow and load up on her


bw what you folk think of
asu over stanford
and indiane over ole misouri ?

bw i like csu a ton as of today to . noway sabenwill run it up against a coach that public in idolizes him

I think Stanford gets beat and may go ahead on it..  Don't have any idea bout Misery.



Funny thing, I'm 2 hours away from Rutgers but leaving Friday. Ready to get back to Arkansas. :D
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4240 on: September 18, 2013, 09:30:32 pm »

I think I feel the same way. My line has AR at +1. Not going to touch it.

I know that Saban does not run the score up, it's not his style. May take CSU at +39.5.

Like A-State at -4.  ----Laid 3.
Clemson -13.5.  ------Laid 3.

for the record im a tailing you for 2 units a pice .in my onlune shanigans ill play more cause my hogville bankroll is still around 400 and i cant match it play for play in real life unles i know calculas an i don't

in online ill play a real 7 spot on clemson tomorow so ill either be real happy or real drunk around midnight tomorrow

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4241 on: September 18, 2013, 10:00:59 pm »

First play of the week on a careful but significant card is Utah St. +7 for 3 units. FL under will probably come when it hits my book tomorrow and that may be it. All my research has pointed to a close game, with either team having an equal shot at winning. Utah St. more so in my opinion, so I'll gladly take the 7. I have a feeling this line has a little stereotypical USC built into it for the casual gambling fan. Chuckie Keaton seems like a legitimate difference maker. Utah St's coach is sitting royally while Kiffin is on the hot seat. There's a lot of questions regarding the state of USC's program right now while USU's couldn't be soaring higher.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4242 on: September 18, 2013, 10:02:09 pm »

Even raw numbers point to a USU cover.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4243 on: September 18, 2013, 10:52:16 pm »

Utah stTe with the outright win as road dogs. Defensive gaps and lack of depth on both sides, a bipolar quarterback for USC. Utah state is simply the better team. Easy cover for the aggs
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4244 on: September 18, 2013, 11:06:31 pm »

Utah St. & USC have both been somewhat unpredictable ATS this season.  Very few power ranking systems are above 50% on both.  The one with the best record on both teams picks Utah St., but as the season goes on, I try to stick with match-ups where one or both teams are more predictable.  I'm not trying to talk anyone out of anything here, and if I had to pick one, I'd pick Utah St.   
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4245 on: September 18, 2013, 11:25:05 pm »

Toledo has been highly predictable so far this season with several systems at 100% ATS, but the systems with the best records in picking Toledo are fairly split this game, with a few more picking Central Mich than Toledo.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4246 on: September 18, 2013, 11:27:41 pm »

Of those teams u mentioned, I'm 1-1 with USC, no plays on Utah st, and 1-0 with Toledo.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4247 on: September 18, 2013, 11:30:49 pm »

Been listening to espn radio on my drive to dallas tonight. Interesting thoughts on some nfl picks from these goons. Will update when not driving lol.
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4248 on: September 19, 2013, 06:18:05 am »

Thanks Ur!  Could someone recommend a good site that consolidates injury information?  I know the teams try to keep their opponents guessing, so it won't be anything conclusive.  In the past, I've just searched it out on a team by team basis before making a play, but it would be nice to find a go-to site that makes it easier to clear that hurdle for several teams at once.  Thanks.
I haven't found a great site. Vegasinsider lists some injuries below each game.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #4249 on: September 19, 2013, 06:32:42 am »

OK guys, what do you think of these three?

Utah @ BYU (-7) 61 O/U

Ariz St @ Stanford (-7) 50 1/2 O/U

Mich State @ Notre Dame (-6 1/2) 41 O/U
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