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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 339633 times)

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DamonBoost

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3950 on: September 13, 2013, 01:39:30 pm »

Of the 30+ power ranking systems that I follow, 28 pick A&M to cover and 2 pick Bama.  Most of the ones with the highest records ATS pick A&M, and three different subsets/trends that have hit at over 70% pick A&M (those trends hit ATS at 21/30, 25/35, and 28/38).  The sample sizes are small, but there is enough there to make me think twice about making a large play on Bama.

Is there a link to those 30+ you follow, I would be interested in checking them out...
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3951 on: September 13, 2013, 02:12:17 pm »

Here it is:  http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/predncaa.html

and here is his page that tracks their performance: http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php

I absolutely LOVE that he provides the data in a downloadable Excel file.  Over the past 10 months, I've built the mother of all spreadsheets to data mine the crap out of it.  I didn't stumble across it until around the middle of the season last year.  By the time I figured out how to get anything useful out of it, I only had a few weeks left in the season, but it helped me close strong last year.  Hope springs eternal, but after several redesigns, rebuilds, and refinements, I'm cautiously optimistic that it will help me improve on the already good results that I got last year.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3952 on: September 13, 2013, 02:35:11 pm »

I decided to go ahead and do a very small spreadsheet play to start to test the waters, so I'm adding 5 games for a total of 1 unit (at 0.2 units per game):

Nevada +35.5
Iowa State +2 (bought the hook)
Kent +36
UCLA +3.5 (bought the hook)
A&M +7.5

These are strictly small spreadsheet plays.  They each fit into three different trends that were all hitting at over 70%.  The sample sizes are way too small to have much confidence in them, so I'm doing this more for fun and as an initial test than anything else.

Awesome. Keep us updated on the system.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3953 on: September 13, 2013, 03:06:31 pm »

Will do.  I expect a few bumps along the way, so I recommend against tailing my plays until I build a decent track record.  I'm cautiously optimistic that it will fall into place in 2 or 3 weeks.  Last year, I was mired in the middle of the pack of the TD Rant SEC ATS pick 'em contest until I discovered the joys of spreadsheets.  After that, I was able to finish the contest at 67% ATS for the season, which means that I was probably hitting at over 70% toward the end.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3954 on: September 13, 2013, 03:17:19 pm »

I just believe Bama will dominate TAMU.  I want to make it my biggest play of the year.  Can someone give me some (not obvious) reasons not to?

Man, I'm with you. Bama has had a week off, and a whole 7 or 8 months to prepare with obvious focus on TAMU. I can't imagine Saban not having his team as pumped up as they can be.

I don't have the balls to put my money where my mouth is, but I see Bama rolling off a 14-17 point win.
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Hoggy1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3955 on: September 13, 2013, 03:33:16 pm »

4-2-1 NFL week 1

Rams +7
Colts -3
Giants + 4 1/2
Cardinals +2  for this week.

Also had under 43 for the Pats on Thursday, although I didn't post.  I guess I could screenshot my wager history as proof lol
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unpredictableacts

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3956 on: September 13, 2013, 04:08:17 pm »

Is it bad that the Oregon Tennessee matchup is intriguing to me? Oregon is 28 pt favorites.
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OrvilleRedenporker

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3957 on: September 13, 2013, 04:17:31 pm »

Here's one for tonight...Boise game will go under the total.  See if you can get it at 58.5
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Mr. Hog Jangles

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3958 on: September 13, 2013, 04:18:38 pm »

Is it bad that the Oregon Tennessee matchup is intriguing to me? Oregon is 28 pt favorites.

Spent about 15 minutes contemplating it and decided if it took me that long it wasn't worth the risk.

I can see Oregon covering easily but then again it could be a shootout and end up being something like 65-48.
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Mr. Hog Jangles

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3959 on: September 13, 2013, 04:23:24 pm »

Does anyone know of an app that allows you to pick which games you want to see the score to and show them all together?

The best thing I've found to do is add a team from each game to my favorites on the ESPN scorecenter app but that's a pretty daunting task every Saturday/Sunday morning.
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unpredictableacts

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3960 on: September 13, 2013, 04:32:58 pm »

I also think Louisville can beat the 14 and Wisconsin beats ASU
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3961 on: September 13, 2013, 04:34:32 pm »

No way TN sniffs 48
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3962 on: September 13, 2013, 04:55:43 pm »

No way TN sniffs 48
Spent about 15 minutes contemplating it and decided if it took me that long it wasn't worth the risk.

I can see Oregon covering easily but then again it could be a shootout and end up being something like 65-48.

100% agree with wide. Oregon's defense is a lot better than most think.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3963 on: September 13, 2013, 05:43:50 pm »

LOUI/KY now at 14.5
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3964 on: September 13, 2013, 05:45:57 pm »

Posted this in another thread....I will contrast it with some saban numbers shortly.

Tread carefully expecting a bama blowout....

Since 1980, road favorites who won 11 or more games the previous year, are 8-20 ATS when playing in revenge games from the previous year. If that game is played prior to week 9, the trend is 2-10, with 7 straight up losses.

If the road favorite is  favored by less than 12 and the opposition won 8 or more games the previous year, the favorite is 0-6 SUATS since 1980.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3965 on: September 13, 2013, 06:07:33 pm »

No play tonight.

Would lean over 57
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3966 on: September 13, 2013, 06:31:28 pm »

just placed these for the weekend
more than i wanted to do but i aint feeling a hundred percent on any of them so i just bet less and played more so it may look like i have a problem but one game was only a 40 dollar bet for example

   9/15/13 1:00pm  NFL Football  199 Tennessee Titans 1st Half +6½ -110* vs Houston Texans  ... a slow starting team the texans and their defense is still overrated

9/13/13 9:00pm  Reduced Fighting  3401 Houston Alexander +215* vs Vladimir Matyushenko  i think vlad prolly wins it but i liked the ml on this and my chances

9/14/13 10:00pm  Reduced Fighting  3202 Elvis Mutapcic -105* vs Jesse Taylor
... just a rule i have never bet against an elvis

3 Team Parlay
Pending   9/13/13 8:00pm  College Football  109 Air Force/Boise State Over 55 -140*
Pending   9/14/13 3:30pm  College Football  143 Tennessee/Oregon Over 72½ -110*
Pending   9/14/13 12:20pm  College Football  165 Southern Mississippi/Arkansas Over 50 -104*   ... im the worlds worst at over unders but i real like my chances on this parlay

   4 Team Parlay
Pending   9/13/13 8:00pm  College Football  109 Air Force/Boise State Over 55 -140*
Pending   9/14/13 12:00pm  College Football  117 Louisville -14½ -110* vs Kentucky
Pending   9/14/13 12:20pm  College Football  165 Southern Mississippi/Arkansas Over 49½ -110*
Pending   9/14/13 5:00pm  College Extra Football  338 Arkansas-Pine Bluff +1½ -120* vs Alabama State    .... if uapb loses this for me im never gona use paper agan

9/14/13 7:00pm  College Football  266 Toledo -7½ -110* vs East Washington
toledo is still the only horse that keeps placing for me ill ride em

   9/14/13 12:00pm  Reduced Football  117 Louisville -14½ -102* vs Kentucky
i thought lousville was a sure play last week to lets see if kentucky remains a ghetto swill for one more week for me

   9/14/13 12:00pm  Reduced Football  140 Nebraska -3 -113* vs UCLA
i like nebraskas run game against uclas defense

9/14/13 3:30pm  Reduced Football  143 Tennessee +28 -108* vs Oregon
i like tenesee here everytime i see oregon against a decent size hit hard defense they have problems but my problem is can tenner get up enough to be that defense wku says no

9/14/13 3:30pm  Reduced Football  143 Tennessee +3250* vs Oregon
did a money line for a low dolar ammount i mean i play the lotto so why not play something with better ods right i just cant see a sec team getting a line like this without taking a longshot

9/14/13 3:30pm  Reduced Football  152 Texas A&M +8½ -107* vs Alabama
8 and a half hoho ok im game might be a fools bet but 8 and a half hoho

9/14/13 7:00pm  Reduced Football  167 Vanderbilt +14 -109* vs South Carolina
usc is sort of a dumpster fire and vandy always plays them real tite
i think usc wins butnot by 2 toucdhowns

   9/14/13 10:30pm  Reduced Football  193 Wisconsin +5 -107* vs Arizona State
i like this a lot i hope wisky gets that dang ole ball and just keeps it the hole dang game



thanks yall for all yer insite this week and heres me holding a pbr toasting you all wishing you luck its got to be better than lastweekend i hope at least

a unit apiece here
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3967 on: September 13, 2013, 06:36:54 pm »

No play tonight.

Would lean over 57
i tok your lean tonite in both my parlays you look strong lately my man
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3968 on: September 13, 2013, 06:37:31 pm »

think im done with my picks.  already have one or two more on the board than i'd like.  I stated them above but I'll recap...

Ball St -3   (3*)
Maryland -7   (3*)
Louisville -13   (3*)
Va Tech -7   (2*)
BC +14   (1*)
UCLA +4.5   (1*)
Ole Miss +4.5   (1*)

Going to add a few games after listening to The Herd and really agreeing with some stuff he had to say... Just adding Washington, ASU, and Tenner

Official Picks for 9/14:

Ball St -3   (3*)
Maryland -7   (3*)
Louisville -13   (3*)
Washington -10   (2*)
Va Tech -7   (2*)
Arizona State -4   (1*)
Tennessee +28   (1*)
BC +14   (1*)
UCLA +4.5   (1*)
Ole Miss +4.5   (1*)
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3969 on: September 13, 2013, 06:40:48 pm »

For NFL I have:

Saints -3   (2*)
Cardinals +1   (2*)
Rams +7   (1*)
Bears -5.5   (1*)
Niners +1   (1*)
« Last Edit: September 13, 2013, 06:55:16 pm by Huckleberry Pig »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3970 on: September 13, 2013, 06:46:23 pm »

Going to add a few games after listening to The Herd and really agreeing with some stuff he had to say... Just adding Washington, ASU, and Tenner

Official Picks for 9/14:

Ball St -3   (3*)
Maryland -7   (3*)
Louisville -13   (3*)
Washington -10   (2*)
Va Tech -7   (2*)
Arizona State -4   (1*)
Tennessee +28   (1*)
BC +14   (1*)
UCLA +4.5   (1*)
Ole Miss +4.5   (1*)

I'd love to know what he said about Washington. I've been intrigued with Sark, and this line has me looking to see if there is something i can hang my hat on as to why to play them.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3971 on: September 13, 2013, 06:48:25 pm »

im probably the bigest pac12 fffan on this forum but what you seeing in ucla i just dont think they will be able to hang with a pounding run game

the strange thing is i really am a huge pac12 fan i just did not like any of there out of conference matchups this week but that being said i think those boys can give any conference in the nation a run for their money game for game team for team
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unpredictableacts

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3972 on: September 13, 2013, 06:53:35 pm »

OK guys I need a site that i can use that accepts a debit card.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3973 on: September 13, 2013, 07:00:24 pm »

if yer card is a visa maybe any of them but you may have to end up going to walgreens and buying one of those cash credit card visa things

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3974 on: September 13, 2013, 07:01:26 pm »

I'd love to know what he said about Washington. I've been intrigued with Sark, and this line has me looking to see if there is something i can hang my hat on as to why to play them.

You've got a team that just blew out Boise St.  They are coming off a bye week.  They get their best player back (Seferian-Jenkins), though he will not be in game shape but should still create matchup problems and and should still be on the field for a good portion of the game.  Just more healthy/fresh and with that fast-paced offense he thinks they will just overwhelm Illinois and I agree with him.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3975 on: September 13, 2013, 07:04:25 pm »

My UTSA/Zona o65.5 has dropped to 63. I don't if I should double dip or be worried about my original play with that line movement. Insight anyone?

Also, the over the pas couple hours So. ALA has dropped from +9.5 to +7.5. Real quick movement.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3976 on: September 13, 2013, 07:05:36 pm »

For those that don't watch The Herd, I would strongly encourage it this time of year.  His show is 90% football and you just learn a lot about different teams.  He always has good guests (including Phil Steele) that you can learn a lot from. 

You don't have to like his picks but he does provide more football knowledge than any other guy on radio.  He even sees what the wise guys in Vegas think of his blazing 5.  I end up finding out a lot about teams O and D Lines through either him or his guests, which is one of my biggest factors in football games. 

I record his show on espnU ever morning and watch it during lunch/after work. 
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3977 on: September 13, 2013, 07:18:42 pm »

OK guys I need a site that i can use that accepts a debit card.

check your pm's bro
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3978 on: September 13, 2013, 07:28:18 pm »

My UTSA/Zona o65.5 has dropped to 63. I don't if I should double dip or be worried about my original play with that line movement. Insight anyone?

Also, the over the pas couple hours So. ALA has dropped from +9.5 to +7.5. Real quick movement.

Sharp money hammered the under. Usually good idea to follow it.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3979 on: September 13, 2013, 07:29:52 pm »

Sharp money hammered the under. Usually good idea to follow it.

Damn. Where do you look to find out who sharp money is coming in on?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3980 on: September 13, 2013, 07:31:19 pm »

I assume the same is happening with Wiscy now that they're down to 4?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3981 on: September 13, 2013, 07:39:24 pm »

Damn. Where do you look to find out who sharp money is coming in on?

I use this website to watch lines and monitor movement but there isn't a website that I'm aware of that tells you what you are asking for.

I just know that it takes a lot of money to move a line. Public betting can move it a half a point or so. When you see a line move like yours did, it tells me 2 things.

1. Sharp money had poured in one side because the think the line is way off.
2. Somebody knows something which caused the sharps to hammer it.

Either way, it is usually best to follow the movement.

http://www.scoresandodds.com/tomorrow.html?sort=rot
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3982 on: September 13, 2013, 07:41:52 pm »


I use this website to watch lines and monitor movement but there isn't a website that I'm aware of that tells you what you are asking for.

I just know that it takes a lot of money to move a line. Public betting can move it a half a point or so. When you see a line move like yours did, it tells me 2 things.

1. Sharp money had poured in one side because the think the line is way off.
2. Somebody knows something which caused the sharps to hammer it.

Either way, it is usually best to follow the movement.

http://www.scoresandodds.com/tomorrow.html?sort=rot

Thanks for that. Since it's a 2 unit play, I'll consider putting 1 on the under to not completely fade my gut.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3983 on: September 13, 2013, 07:46:09 pm »

Adding a couple first half lines to the card now that they're available on my site:

Oregon -16.5
Arizona -13.5

Still thinking about the play in my last post and that's it. Threshold on plays for one week is at its max.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3984 on: September 13, 2013, 07:49:40 pm »

Ball st 2u
WKU 1u
Wash 2u
Louis 2u
Maryland 1.5u
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3985 on: September 13, 2013, 08:01:14 pm »

Layed:

Louisville -13.5, 2 units
Ball St. -3, 2 units @ -120
Penn St. -5.5, 2 units
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3986 on: September 13, 2013, 08:25:35 pm »

My bets this weekend:

Ball St -3; 2 unit bet

4 game parlay; 7 unit bet pays about 9.5 units

Bama (moneyline)
WKU (moneyline)
South Carolina (moneyline)
Louisville (moneyline)
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3987 on: September 13, 2013, 08:46:07 pm »

3 Units
Ball State -2.5 L
NIU -28 L
Bama -8 L

2 Units
Arkansas -23.5 L
Wisconsin +4 W
ULM +2.5 W

1 Unit
Kentucky +14 D
Ohio +7.5 W
Nebraska -3 L
Notre Dame -19.5 L

YTD 12-13-1, -1 units
« Last Edit: September 15, 2013, 12:17:17 pm by yraciv »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3988 on: September 13, 2013, 11:12:17 pm »

My bets this weekend:

Ball St -3; 2 unit bet

4 game parlay; 7 unit bet pays about 9.5 units

Bama (moneyline)
WKU (moneyline)
South Carolina (moneyline)
Louisville (moneyline)

Umm just curious, but what are you doing there? Betting a 4 team parlay for a return of less that 2-1?  I hope you hit it. Just don't understand it at all!
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3989 on: September 13, 2013, 11:34:55 pm »

No play tonight.

Would lean over 57

you got me the first leg of my parlays bubba cheers
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3990 on: September 14, 2013, 12:33:07 am »

you got me the first leg of my parlays bubba cheers

My pleasure. Good luck tomorrow.
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BoynamedWooPigSooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3991 on: September 14, 2013, 12:41:51 am »

I'm going heavy with Iowa at -2 against Iowa St.

The clips I saw of the N. Iowa loss Klenakis' line was porous and the QB took some massive shots (seems vaguely familiar).  Both teams are pretty craptastic, I like Iowa when I'd usually take Iowa St.  Just one of those late night moments of clarity.



I'm also taking A&M at -8.5, I see them keeping it close.  Bama couldn't run on VT, I could see this game getting decided by the QB's arms, I like Bama to win, and there to be quite a few points scored.  I think it's gonna get wild in College Station.  Bama by 6, the Over wins.

Tennessee/Oregon.  I'm going underdog again.  I don't think it's ever close but UT can score, Oregon's D is meh.  I think Butch Jones is a better coach than we want to admit, I could see a 55-28 game, with a 27 point win right at the spread but not enough to cover it.


Arkansas/USM.   Hardly ever bet on hog games because I don't like to mix money and emotions, but I'd take the Hogs at -23.5, I just wouldn't bet big.


I like Texas to win and cover the -2.5.   I'm not convinced Ole Miss has improved as much on the field as they have on paper.


I'm playing

Iowa -2   4 units
E. Carolina +8  1 unit
USC  -13.5 1 unit
E. Washington  +7.5  2 units
Wisconsin +4  2 units


I'm throwing 50 on a 5 team parlay on that as well.
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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3992 on: September 14, 2013, 08:02:18 am »

Umm just curious, but what are you doing there? Betting a 4 team parlay for a return of less that 2-1?  I hope you hit it. Just don't understand it at all!
Just picking winners...not spreads. 7 units for a profit of 9.5 units? Sounds ok to me...if it hits! Lol we will see, if I lose won't be first time.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3993 on: September 14, 2013, 08:04:25 am »

My bets this weekend:

Ball St -3; 2 unit bet

4 game parlay; 7 unit bet pays about 9.5 units

Bama (moneyline)
WKU (moneyline)
South Carolina (moneyline)
Louisville (moneyline)

I'm not saying it won't hit.  Simply that the payout doesn't seem worth the risk of one of those teams stubbing their toe.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3994 on: September 14, 2013, 08:05:59 am »

Just picking winners...not spreads. 7 units for a profit of 9.5 units? Sounds ok to me...if it hits! Lol we will see, if I lose won't be first time.



Lol I know that feeling.  I knew you were playing money lines.  I may be wrong many times today alone :)
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3995 on: September 14, 2013, 08:11:10 am »


Lol I know that feeling.  I knew you were playing money lines.  I may be wrong many times today alone :)

Here's one for you: Ohio State (-16) 66 @ California

Ohio St averaging 452.5 and 41 points on offense, 269 and 13.5 points on defense.
Cal is averaging 582.5 and 33.5 points on offense, 530.5 and 37 points on defense.

Jeff, what are your thoughts on this game?  OSU -16? The "Over"?
« Last Edit: September 14, 2013, 08:23:12 am by MuskogeeHogFan »
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3996 on: September 14, 2013, 08:43:20 am »

Here's one for you: Ohio State (-16) 66 @ California

Ohio St averaging 452.5 and 41 points on offense, 269 and 13.5 points on defense.
Cal is averaging 582.5 and 33.5 points on offense, 530.5 and 37 points on defense.

Jeff, what are your thoughts on this game?  OSU -16? The "Over"?
Cal may win that game big ten don't travel west well some stat like dropping last 22 out of 26 when traveling west
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3997 on: September 14, 2013, 08:47:14 am »

I've got .....

Ball St -3
BC +14
Jeff

 ;D
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3998 on: September 14, 2013, 08:47:15 am »

1 unit plays
Auburn -6
Maryland -6
Vols +28.5

2 unit Plays
Penn St -5
Vandy +14
WKU -7
Pitt -20.5
Purdue +21

3 unit plays
Ball St -2.5
Indiana -2.5
Louisville -14
Boston College +14.5
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3999 on: September 14, 2013, 08:53:27 am »

Cal may win that game big ten don't travel west well some stat like dropping last 22 out of 26 when traveling west

I think Ohio State still wins because Cal's defense is atrocious. They gave up over 500 yards to Portland State last weekend. Now will Ohio St cover the 16 points? I don't think so.
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