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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 326565 times)

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3900 on: September 12, 2013, 03:03:17 pm »

I agree here. Everyone knows (or thinks they know) that Mayweather will win. The real money is predicting when, and how.

I'm leaning towards TCU tonight, but I am going to look around a little more.

I went ahead and locked in:

Ga Tech -9....3*  (should have locked in at 8 earlier in the week)
Bowling Green +3....2*
N. Illini -28.5....2*

Looking at:

UTEP -5.5




I like that BG play. Any thoughts on the over?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3901 on: September 12, 2013, 03:03:18 pm »

Played over 62.5 tcu/ tech game. 2 units.

Played over 42 pats / jets 2 units.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3902 on: September 12, 2013, 04:00:45 pm »

anybody taking TT or TCU tonight?
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DamonBoost

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3903 on: September 12, 2013, 04:13:09 pm »

anybody taking TT or TCU tonight?
Taking the Over...
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3904 on: September 12, 2013, 04:19:59 pm »

Took Tech to straight up win
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3905 on: September 12, 2013, 04:45:10 pm »

Played over 62.5 tcu/ tech game. 2 units.

Played over 42 pats / jets 2 units.

tailing this but my lines are different

Tcu/tech 59 over 2units
Pats/Jets 42.5 over 2units (will buy the hook down to 42)
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3906 on: September 12, 2013, 05:38:57 pm »

i agree id take tt in ml win but otherwise im staying away that freshman qb shocked me at home i like him more now
but to be honest my man im not going there i dont think i am trying to boil it down to the three best bets i can find this week and try to make some cash. i hate betting against tcu always the team with the best qb and coach usually wins and to be hhonest im not sure which is wich right now i think the over is pretty safe though

and men i got to say unless you have some sort of insite i dont know how you can pick tcu or texas tech bcause i watch a lot of darn ole games and i couldnt pick this one and wouldnt if my life depended on it so all im saying is know what you are doing before you bet it just dont take it on a hunch unless you are good at hunches
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3907 on: September 12, 2013, 06:03:58 pm »

Went Pats -11.5  1 unit

Also Parlayed TCU -3 and over 61  .5 unit
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3908 on: September 12, 2013, 06:28:54 pm »

I guess we will see.

But I can see why they went with Pachall.

In 2011 he had a 66.5% completion percentage and threw for 224.7 yds per game, 25 TD's and only 7 INT's.

In 2012 Boykin had a 57.2 completion percentage and threw for 158 yards per game, 15 TD's and 10 INT's.

This year Pachall has a 56.7% completion percentage for 175 yards, 1 INT and 0 TD's, while Boykin has a 60.0% completion percentage for 203 yards, 0 INT's and 2 TD's.

I may be wrong, but I see little difference between the two. Boykin is obviously doing better than Pachall, but not by much and perhaps not enough to make a huge difference.

Your thoughts?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3909 on: September 12, 2013, 06:35:19 pm »

Your thoughts?


Hey I replied previous page my man.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3910 on: September 12, 2013, 06:38:30 pm »


Hey I replied previous page my man.

Well, just trying to get "everyone" talking, my man.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3911 on: September 12, 2013, 07:09:00 pm »

Well, just trying to get "everyone" talking, my man.
Well, just trying to get "everyone" talking, my man.
Well, just trying to get "everyone" talking, my man.

Gotcha.  Well I live 1 mile from TCU and no a lot of former frog alum and a few former players.  Most are happy this kid is starting.  I really don't know about this game.  Only played the over.  If I had to bet it I would take TCU -3, but I don't like it either way.

Same for NFL tonight. Played the over.  If I had to bet the line I would probably take the Jets +11.5 with a back door cover.
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3912 on: September 12, 2013, 07:11:01 pm »

Gotcha.  Well I live 1 mile from TCU and no a lot of former frog alum and a few former players.  Most are happy this kid is starting.  I really don't know about this game.  Only played the over.  If I had to bet it I would take TCU -3, but I don't like it either way.

Same for NFL tonight. Played the over.  If I had to bet the line I would probably take the Jets +11.5 with a back door cover.

I didn't bet it but I honestly think the Jets will cover straight up, nothing back door about it.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3913 on: September 12, 2013, 08:10:22 pm »

Gotcha.  Well I live 1 mile from TCU and no a lot of former frog alum and a few former players.  Most are happy this kid is starting.  I really don't know about this game.  Only played the over.  If I had to bet it I would take TCU -3, but I don't like it either way.

been trying teo tell folk this some gamse you can predit some are a crap shoot watching this one now well its a dagdarncrap shoot
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3914 on: September 12, 2013, 08:15:10 pm »

Well, just trying to get "everyone" talking, my man.

Lol dunno why I thought you were asking me earlier.  Anyhoo!  I'm ready for Saturday!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3915 on: September 12, 2013, 08:15:54 pm »

been trying teo tell folk this some gamse you can predit some are a crap shoot watching this one now well its a dagdarncrap shoot

Man I hear ya.  Just had no strong feel either way.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3916 on: September 12, 2013, 10:04:36 pm »

Took Tech to straight up win

GL.  Really wanted to but hadn't gotten to watch them play yet and hadn't done enough homework on them so didn't feel comfortable taking them.
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3917 on: September 12, 2013, 10:07:17 pm »

Although I won my bets of Tech on the ML and +3, they didn't deserve to win. I think the refs hosed TCU honestly. Got screwed out of alot of calls but I guess I'll take the Ws.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3918 on: September 12, 2013, 10:33:29 pm »

Although I won my bets of Tech on the ML and +3, they didn't deserve to win. I think the refs hosed TCU honestly. Got screwed out of alot of calls but I guess I'll take the Ws.

they did but their Offense also looked awful.  They were also extremely undisciplined - lots of penalties.  Thought the outcome was fair.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3919 on: September 12, 2013, 10:52:36 pm »

Adding:

NYJ +13 -- 2*  W


Tom Brady has lost like 80% of his offense.  They had trouble against the Bills D and the Jets D is MUCH better than the Bills D.  Geno didn't look great but he didn't look bad either.  If he can keep from committing turnovers I see this game staying within 10.

Always nice to start the weekend off 1-0 and +2 units
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3920 on: September 12, 2013, 10:54:18 pm »

Both of my leans won tonight. What that means is that if I had played then, they woulda lost.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3921 on: September 12, 2013, 11:41:02 pm »

Saturday final recap:

2 unit:

Rice -5
UTSA/Zona o65.5
WKU/USA o54.5

1:

LOU -13
Zona St. -5.5
AUB -6
Ball -3
MIC -37

20 buck, lookin for luck, 7 team tease:

Stan -22.5, LOU -7.5, MIC -31, UCLA +10.5, GT -2.5, , ORE -22, Rice -1

To win 160
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3922 on: September 12, 2013, 11:41:38 pm »

Faves and overs
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3923 on: September 13, 2013, 01:54:47 am »

I would have thought 22 was low until I watched them play the first two games..

This is an example of an emotional bet and the number 1 reason you never bet the team you invest your heart in.

The reason this thread is different is because we put emotions aside and bet based on numbers, primarily. The rest of hogville saw a close game, but the numbers indicate something else.
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DamonBoost

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3924 on: September 13, 2013, 08:53:47 am »

This is an example of an emotional bet and the number 1 reason you never bet the team you invest your heart in.

The reason this thread is different is because we put emotions aside and bet based on numbers, primarily. The rest of hogville saw a close game, but the numbers indicate something else.

I usually stay away from the Arkansas and Lakers for those reasons but if I saw another team play the way Arkansas  did against those two teams I would be just as reluctant to bet on them.  I just dont feel like they put up enough points against inferior opponents so I would be reluctant. 

I am curious what numbers you meant tho, just to see if I was thinking the same thing.. In a nutshell Arkansas' ability and willingness to run the ball almost at will against those last two opponents and So Miss's ridiculous history numbers ATS and their overall poor record(s). 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3925 on: September 13, 2013, 09:06:18 am »

really considering taking the Razorbacks here.  think -22 is too low.  just confused though.  we beat ULL by 20 (So. Miss is a much worse team), but only won by 10 against samford....

thoughts?


I'm not touching this game.  I rarely bet Razorback games.  I played them week 1 and didn't touch it week two.

They could win by 40 on Saturday or lay an egg ad lose outright.  I do not have a body of work to rely on yet with them.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3926 on: September 13, 2013, 09:06:52 am »

Was a couple ugly games last night!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3927 on: September 13, 2013, 09:07:28 am »

Billy Joe

Yanks over Red Sox tonight.  Pretty much a must win for them.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3928 on: September 13, 2013, 09:08:19 am »

Was a couple ugly games last night!

it happens! I picked up TT +3 at half to cut my losses a bit. Here's to a better Saturday.
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Mr. Hog Jangles

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3929 on: September 13, 2013, 09:09:45 am »

How does everyone feel about Ole Miss (+3) @ Texas? UT is in disarray and Ole Miss has to be feeling pretty good. I like it.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3930 on: September 13, 2013, 09:09:53 am »


I'm not touching this game.  I rarely bet Razorback games.  I played them week 1 and didn't touch it week two.

They could win by 40 on Saturday or lay an egg ad lose outright.  I do not have a body of work to rely on yet with them.

ya I've decided not to add them.  Learned my lesson last year about betting the Hogs.  Never again.

And boy those games last night were UGLY.  Glad to get a winner out of them.  On to the weekend!
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3931 on: September 13, 2013, 09:10:09 am »

How does everyone feel about Ole Miss (+3) @ Texas? UT is in disarray and Ole Miss has to be feeling pretty good. I like it.

snagged them earlier this week at +4.5
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3932 on: September 13, 2013, 10:06:02 am »

I'm still treading lightly this weekend:

Louisville -10 for 1/2 unit (I locked it in early in the week)
Auburn -6   for 1/2 unit

I'm seeing some nice early trends but don't have enough of a sample size yet to have any confidence in them yet.  I'll pick up the pace in a week or two. 

One note for the start of next season that goes along with what several of you have been saying, several rating systems did quite well ATS when picking home favorites to cover during the first two weeks (as the strong teams enjoyed their cupcakes): Burdoff (79%), Argh (73%), Dokter (75%), Moore (72%), Sagarin Elo (73%), Nutshell Combo (73%), BMC2 (70%), SportTrend (75%), and Median (79%) (thepredictiontracker.com).  Several more were over 60% ATS on home favorites.  I expect that trend to be about over now that more teams will start to get to the meat of their schedules. 

 

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3933 on: September 13, 2013, 10:57:59 am »

Canelo  +200, 1u
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3934 on: September 13, 2013, 11:00:39 am »

How does everyone feel about Ole Miss (+3) @ Texas? UT is in disarray and Ole Miss has to be feeling pretty good. I like it.

I may be completely wrong, but I expect Texas to rebound at home this weekend and beat Ole Miss by more than 3. But without a doubt, this would be a HUGE win for Ole Miss, from their standpoint.
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DamonBoost

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3935 on: September 13, 2013, 11:02:46 am »

I may be completely wrong, but I expect Texas to rebound at home this weekend and beat Ole Miss by more than 3. But without a doubt, this would be a HUGE win for Ole Miss, from their standpoint.

These are my thoughts as well..
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3936 on: September 13, 2013, 11:08:04 am »

Canelo  +200, 1u


Wow. Thinking Mayweather goes down tomorrow?
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3937 on: September 13, 2013, 11:13:52 am »


Wow. Thinking Mayweather goes down tomorrow?


Just a flyer Will, maybe a gut instinct, certainly not advice to others, ha.
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Mr. Hog Jangles

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3938 on: September 13, 2013, 11:32:29 am »

I may be completely wrong, but I expect Texas to rebound at home this weekend and beat Ole Miss by more than 3. But without a doubt, this would be a HUGE win for Ole Miss, from their standpoint.

Fair. I feel like Texas is in the same (note that I mean attitude not situation) spot we were last year after ULM. The fans are pissed, the players seem like they don't care, and the QB is beat up. Seems like a perfect recipe for Ole Miss to make a statement.
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Mr. Hog Jangles

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3939 on: September 13, 2013, 11:38:33 am »

Nonetheless, here's my card:

Bama -8   3*
Louisville -14   2*
UCLA +4   2*
Ole Miss +3   1*
FAU +13  1*
SCar -14  1*

I have a 10 game parlay (4 for 2500) consisting of the above plus : Iowa -2.5, ND -21, Utah -3, Indiana -3 just for sh*ts and gigs
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DamonBoost

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3940 on: September 13, 2013, 11:49:13 am »

Locked for this weekend
Parlay (1*)
-BallSt -3.5
-GaTech -9
-Louisville -16
-OregonSt Utah Over 58.5
-Wisconsin+4.5

Games
Louisville -14.5 (1.5*)
Va Tech -7.5 (1*)
Ga Tech -9 (1*)
Ball St -3.5 (5*)
Maryland -7 (1*)
Rice -6.5 (1*)
Oregon St/Utah o58.5 (1*)
Wisconsin +5 (1.5*)
Va Tech / East Carolina o48.5
Tenn +28.5

NFL
Eagles -8 (1*)
Bears -6.5 (1*)
KC -3 (1*)
AZ +2.5 (1*)
Cinn -7 (1*)

Leans
UCLA +3.5



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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3941 on: September 13, 2013, 12:07:44 pm »

Fair. I feel like Texas is in the same (note that I mean attitude not situation) spot we were last year after ULM. The fans are pissed, the players seem like they don't care, and the QB is beat up. Seems like a perfect recipe for Ole Miss to make a statement.

Just keep in mind that, no matter whether it is time for Mack Brown to ride off into the sunset or not, he and his staff are light years ahead of a staff led by JLS AND they have now and have always had, a lot more talent on that team than we did anytime under BP or JLS.

Texas has the ability to rise up and after last weekend, I think this staff and team comes out rededicated to success and winning this game. Again, I may be wrong, but JMO.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3942 on: September 13, 2013, 12:19:35 pm »

I just believe Bama will dominate TAMU.  I want to make it my biggest play of the year.  Can someone give me some (not obvious) reasons not to?
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3943 on: September 13, 2013, 12:23:51 pm »

I just believe Bama will dominate TAMU.  I want to make it my biggest play of the year.  Can someone give me some (not obvious) reasons not to?

Because they lost last year to them at home and this year they play them in College Station. Those would be my arguments..
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3944 on: September 13, 2013, 12:30:28 pm »

Locked for this weekend
Parlay (1*)
-BallSt -3.5
-GaTech -9
-Louisville -16
-OregonSt Utah Over 58.5
-Wisconsin+4.5

Games
Louisville -14.5 (1.5*)
Va Tech -7.5 (1*)
Ga Tech -9 (1*)
Ball St -3.5 (5*)
Maryland -7 (1*)
Rice -6.5 (1*)
Oregon St/Utah o58.5 (1*)
Wisconsin +5 (1.5*)
Va Tech / East Carolina o48.5
Tenn +28.5

NFL
Eagles -8 (1*)
Bears -6.5 (1*)
KC -3 (1*)
AZ +2.5 (1*)
Cinn -7 (1*)

Leans
UCLA +3.5





You are a brave man going with that Wisconsin-Arizona State game. Neither team has really played anyone though Wisconsin is playing its third game as opposed to Az State playing their second game of the season. Given who each of these teams have played I think it is difficult to make an accurate evaluation of how they will play against a legit opponent.

This could be a really great and entertaining game. But you can bet that Az State is going to press the up-tempo offense and throw the ball a lot. We'll see, but so little is known about how these two teams will perform when facing a legit opponent that I probably wouldn't touch this game.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3945 on: September 13, 2013, 12:35:39 pm »

I decided to go ahead and do a very small spreadsheet play to start to test the waters, so I'm adding 5 games for a total of 1 unit (at 0.2 units per game):

Nevada +35.5
Iowa State +2 (bought the hook)
Kent +36
UCLA +3.5 (bought the hook)
A&M +7.5

These are strictly small spreadsheet plays.  They each fit into three different trends that were all hitting at over 70%.  The sample sizes are way too small to have much confidence in them, so I'm doing this more for fun and as an initial test than anything else.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3946 on: September 13, 2013, 12:38:24 pm »

I just believe Bama will dominate TAMU.  I want to make it my biggest play of the year.  Can someone give me some (not obvious) reasons not to?
Bama did not dominate vtech. There online is still suspicious to me. And. Tamu has a better team than last years team.one last reason I woukdnt bet the farm is Tamu knows and belives they can beat bammer



That ole Texas game will be interesting I need to see what sorta dumpster fire they got going the kids know they got a coach fired will they play tite and nervus or come out swinging
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3947 on: September 13, 2013, 12:55:41 pm »

Because they lost last year to them at home and this year they play them in College Station. Those would be my arguments..

Those are obvious.  Still think they dominate.

Quote from: billyjoeozark
Tamu has a better team than last years team.

Absolutely not.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3948 on: September 13, 2013, 01:21:00 pm »

Of the 30+ power ranking systems that I follow, 28 pick A&M to cover and 2 pick Bama.  Most of the ones with the highest records ATS pick A&M, and three different subsets/trends that have hit at over 70% pick A&M (those trends hit ATS at 21/30, 25/35, and 28/38).  The sample sizes are small, but there is enough there to make me think twice about making a large play on Bama.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3949 on: September 13, 2013, 01:23:49 pm »

Those are obvious.  Still think they dominate.

Absolutely not.
I thinking you need to bet the farm on bammer goodluck
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