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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 330045 times)

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3500 on: September 06, 2013, 10:31:46 pm »

Sunday I LOVE the Titans +7 against the Steelers and think they will win the game outright.  Steelers have a terrible Oline, less than average RB's, and lots of questions all over their defense.  Titans will no doubt me more solid with a healthy Locker at QB and what many think will be a salty Oline.  Last but not least, Chris Johnson is healthy and we all know the talent is there to have another 2000 yard rushing season. 

Final:
Titans 23
Steelers 17

Just a question. Do you live in Nashvile?  I don't claim to be near as good at nfl as college, but I hold my own. If there is one team I know it's the steelers.  Their o-line is actually healthy for the first time in two years.

They may no cover the 7, but thy will win.

How about 500.00 me and you head up since you think the titans will win period. All I need is your actual name and address and I will take your credit son!
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3501 on: September 06, 2013, 11:08:31 pm »

Okay you would bet the under 51, but expect a 41-34 type game.

Razorbackid was recommending that someone else drop the under from their card.  He thinks it's going over and wasn't recommending betting the under.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3502 on: September 06, 2013, 11:17:59 pm »

Hogs -32.5

Saw some nonsense on the last page. Let's take that elsewhere. We have a good thing going here.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3503 on: September 06, 2013, 11:23:17 pm »

After adds, final card comes to be:

(in order of played)

Miami +3
OK St. -26
Navy/IU o68
BAY/BUF o67.5
Oregon -22.5
FL/MIA u48
Hogs -32.5

Don't mean to litter the thread with repeated plays. More of an organization/OCD thing.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3504 on: September 06, 2013, 11:29:10 pm »

I am no expert....actually I pretty much stink at these things..but, if I dropped one of those it would be the under on ND/Mich., wouldn't be surprised to see  41-34 type of game here.

Big Ten defense is an illusion.

I would like to apologize to you. I misread your post and jumped your case for it.  I am truly sorry and 100% my fault.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3505 on: September 06, 2013, 11:29:59 pm »

Razorbackid was recommending that someone else drop the under from their card.  He thinks it's going over and wasn't recommending betting the under.

You are so right and I feel bad about that. Just publicly made my apology to him.
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3506 on: September 06, 2013, 11:49:39 pm »

I believe Texas is a lock at -7.  If they don't beat BYU by more than 7, I'll go to Austin and find Mack Brown myself. :puke:
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3507 on: September 07, 2013, 12:04:34 am »

*groan*

That is all
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3508 on: September 07, 2013, 12:10:12 am »

Hey I know you were in here last year anyway. If you don't like his posts don't read them. That's what everyone tells me. 

It's the best thread around, so I'm not going to run from it.  You get trolls on message boards, I get that and have been known to have fun with it. Was just stating I agree it does bottle the thread up, because he does post quite a bit. But u keep doing you BJ, don't change for noone!
« Last Edit: September 07, 2013, 12:28:46 am by yraciv »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3509 on: September 07, 2013, 12:12:14 am »

After watching WF's offense tonight, they may be in fade mode the next couple weeks.
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3510 on: September 07, 2013, 12:13:20 am »

As someone who is just learning the art of sports investing, everything I have read from BJO has been on par with the local people I know in sports investing.  Yes, he throws in his stories and what not, but the principle information he provides has been pretty much spot on.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3511 on: September 07, 2013, 12:24:36 am »


Yracie haven't seen you much lately so why call a recent posters antics old and then post your own play. Maybe your antics are getting old. Did I type that clearly enough for you to understand?


Sorry I don't post and have friendly banter with ya'll every day. I rarely bet basketball/baseball in the offseason. Why did I post my play? Because I've been posting my plays in here for years and enjoy the discussion.  It's great having a place to get second opinions on my plays, and I respect most of yours opinions. That being said, I clearly don't have a personal vendetta.  I've taken it with a grain of salt, haven't said a word, but a mod expressed his opinion and I simply stated my opinion. I haven't called for his head though. And he wasn't here last year, when I was a little more active.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3512 on: September 07, 2013, 12:39:30 am »

I'm glad you found your way back, yraciv. I'm still mad that I can't figure out the code behind your username , but I digress. Welcome back.
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3513 on: September 07, 2013, 12:51:13 am »

Saturday picks:
Cincy -8               2u
WKU/Tenn o58      2u
Hou -3                 2u
Florida -3              1u
SDSU  +28            1u
Navy   +13           1u

FL,SDSU,Navy- 3 team parlay 1u

-3 units for the year, have 10 units going so far tomorrow.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3514 on: September 07, 2013, 05:59:58 am »

I'm glad you found your way back, yraciv. I'm still mad that I can't figure out the code behind your username , but I digress. Welcome back.

Been working on that myself for quite some time and have never figured it out either.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3515 on: September 07, 2013, 06:11:44 am »

Sorry I don't post and have friendly banter with ya'll every day. I rarely bet basketball/baseball in the offseason. Why did I post my play? Because I've been posting my plays in here for years and enjoy the discussion.  It's great having a place to get second opinions on my plays, and I respect most of yours opinions. That being said, I clearly don't have a personal vendetta.  I've taken it with a grain of salt, haven't said a word, but a mod expressed his opinion and I simply stated my opinion. I haven't called for his head though. And he wasn't here last year, when I was a little more active.


Nice to see you back in here:).  Hope you have a profitable year!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3516 on: September 07, 2013, 06:13:47 am »

After adds, final card comes to be:

(in order of played)

Miami +3
OK St. -26
Navy/IU o68
BAY/BUF o67.5
Oregon -22.5
FL/MIA u48
Hogs -32.5

Don't mean to litter the thread with repeated plays. More of an organization/OCD thing.

Haa I hear ya.  I'm the same way, but people tell me it's an OCD thing :)
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3517 on: September 07, 2013, 06:22:41 am »

Already posted my Okie St play for 5 units

Adding

S Florida +23 / 2 units
Houston -3 / 3 units
Horns -7 / 5 units
Virginia +23 / 2 units
Notre Dame +4 / 3 units

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3518 on: September 07, 2013, 06:35:46 am »

I'm glad you found your way back, yraciv. I'm still mad that I can't figure out the code behind your username , but I digress. Welcome back.

Agreed....sometime in the last 12 months I simply asked him but he wouldn't tell me, ha. He said it should be easy to figure out if I'd just think about it.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3519 on: September 07, 2013, 07:10:33 am »

yraciv...
- you're a sieve
- why race ivy

No idea
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3520 on: September 07, 2013, 07:20:00 am »

Lock
Okie St -26
Texas -7
Houston -3

Avoid WKU Tennessee.  I have no clue here. Vols have talent up the ass. Petrino can game plan like no other. I wouldn't touch this game with sir pigs dong :)!



I agree, OSU should beat UTSA by 26.
Also like the Houston game.

But I think that Texas at BYU game might surprise some folks. Keep in mind that Texas turned the ball over 3 times last weekend against maybe the worst team in FBS. BYU didn't set the world on fire playing Virgina last weekend but even as poorly as their QB played, they still outgained Virginia and only lost by 3 after traveling across 3/4 of the country to play.

I know Texas put up a lot of points and yards last weekend, but playing in the thin air in Utah and their T/O's last weekend make me a little wary of this game and the point spread.

Your thoughts, Jeff?
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3521 on: September 07, 2013, 07:26:27 am »


Your thoughts, Jeff?


Already posted my Okie St play for 5 units

Adding

S Florida +23 / 2 units
Houston -3 / 3 units
Horns -7 / 5 units
Virginia +23 / 2 units
Notre Dame +4 / 3 units




Jeff gave his thoughts, 5 units on the Sips, ha.

In all seriousness, Musk, I expressed earlier in this thread how I was a bit concerned how all of us in this thread were calling the Sips a lock of the week, yet the line wasn't moving much. I wholeheartedly support this bet, but think Vegas might have us near a trap, ha.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3522 on: September 07, 2013, 07:30:01 am »

Adding Duke -5
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3523 on: September 07, 2013, 07:32:37 am »



Jeff gave his thoughts, 5 units on the Sips, ha.

In all seriousness, Musk, I expressed earlier in this thread how I was a bit concerned how all of us in this thread were calling the Sips a lock of the week, yet the line wasn't moving much. I wholeheartedly support this bet, but think Vegas might have us near a trap, ha.

I may be entirely wrong about it, just didn't seem to be a "lock" to me, but Jeff seems to do a lot of this so that is why I was asking for his reasoning. How about yours?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3524 on: September 07, 2013, 07:43:56 am »

Adding Duke -5

How about Missouri -17 in Columbia? Thoughts, anyone?
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3525 on: September 07, 2013, 07:58:05 am »

I may be entirely wrong about it, just didn't seem to be a "lock" to me, but Jeff seems to do a lot of this so that is why I was asking for his reasoning. How about yours?

Here's some thoughts Musk...Texas rarely had problems w/ CU at Boulder, a place of elevation. They did struggle at Wyoming last year (I think it was last year). I've seen a lot of discussion concerning how they will handle the Provo altitude, but I believe it is being slightly overplayed.

Texas finally has some consistency on both sides of the ball w/ 18 returning starters. The last 2 years they've been bi-polar, with the offense being good 1 year while the defense stunk, and vice versa the other year. This year should show the consistency, including at qb. I think Texas will get better as the season goes along.

Admittedly, Phil Steele loves this Texas line, and I tend to buy into a lot of what he has to say.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3526 on: September 07, 2013, 08:16:44 am »

Here's some thoughts Musk...Texas rarely had problems w/ CU at Boulder, a place of elevation. They did struggle at Wyoming last year (I think it was last year). I've seen a lot of discussion concerning how they will handle the Provo altitude, but I believe it is being slightly overplayed.

Texas finally has some consistency on both sides of the ball w/ 18 returning starters. The last 2 years they've been bi-polar, with the offense being good 1 year while the defense stunk, and vice versa the other year. This year should show the consistency, including at qb. I think Texas will get better as the season goes along.

Admittedly, Phil Steele loves this Texas line, and I tend to buy into a lot of what he has to say.

That line opened at -3 1/2 and has moved to -7 and Sportsbook.com has it at -9 today. So there has been some line movement and while I know that so much of that has to do with trying to influence money to one side of the line or the other, I would still think that Texas would be favored by more.

Again, I may be totally wrong about that game but just a cursory look at it indicates (as much as you can tell after one game) that Texas scored once for every 13 offensive plays at home and BYU needed 23 offensive plays to score on the road last weekend. Will that turnaround any with Texas on the road and BYU at home? Second game improvement? BYU is #15 in total defense after week #1.

Everyone wants to say that Texas has "returned" to being a team worthy of being ranked. I'm not convinced, yet. We'll see, I'm just a little uncertain about that point spread. 
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3527 on: September 07, 2013, 08:27:54 am »

Musk the sites I go to for opening lines all say -6.5 for Texas for the beginning of the betting week....http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html

Sportsbook.com had it at -7.5 this morning when I got online about 4am, and now has it at 8.5 upon logging in. Fwiw.

Much of the line movement has been today.
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3528 on: September 07, 2013, 08:35:57 am »

BJO is solid.
I would take his word over half the folks here.
That = money.

Look at my previous posts and you'll see I was no fan. Primarily because I interpreted it as making fun, and I personally have family and friends who are really like that.  BUT, in this thread, he is contributing solid info and giving some pretty good advice.  It would sure be nice to actually meet people before making inferences.  I for one appreciate all the contributions and I REALLY appreciate the noob helping here.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3529 on: September 07, 2013, 08:36:00 am »

Musk the sites I go to for opening lines all say -6.5 for Texas for the beginning of the betting week....http://www.scoresandodds.com/casinogrid.html

Sportsbook.com had it at -7.5 this morning when I got online about 4am, and now has it at 8.5 upon logging in. Fwiw.

Much of the line movement has been today.

Here is where I go for point spreads, totals, etc.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=1478
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3530 on: September 07, 2013, 08:37:19 am »

Here is where I go for point spreads, totals, etc.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=1478

Interesting, wonder why the disparity?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3531 on: September 07, 2013, 08:38:19 am »

Interesting, wonder why the disparity?

Good question. I don't have an answer.
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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3532 on: September 07, 2013, 08:39:05 am »

:/ my book has Texass at -8.5 did i wait too long and it move that much?!?  Or is my book being a jack wagon?

Edit...late to the party.  See it was just asked...
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3533 on: September 07, 2013, 08:43:27 am »

Already posted my Okie St play for 5 units

Adding

S Florida +23 / 2 units
Houston -3 / 3 units
Horns -7 / 5 units
Virginia +23 / 2 units
Notre Dame +4 / 3 units

I see texass is your big play too.  Wondering bout Houston, but why oh why 3 on Notre Dame?
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3534 on: September 07, 2013, 09:02:15 am »

I see texass is your big play too.  Wondering bout Houston, but why oh why 3 on Notre Dame?

So what are you thinking about Arkansas State @ Auburn (-10 1/2) 62 Total?
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3535 on: September 07, 2013, 09:04:28 am »

added
Minnesota -15
wash st +16
houston-3
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3536 on: September 07, 2013, 09:11:43 am »

So what are you thinking about Arkansas State @ Auburn (-10 1/2) 62 Total?

I don't have a feel on that game.  I think it's too early and too much unknown.  Auburn definitely has Gus and talent alone but I think it could be a pickem.  Have no idea what raw talent Chizik left him with.  I do know that A state has been well coached and they could pull an upset. I'm not laying any of my scratch on that one though.

The biggest question imho is how much raw talent Gus has to work with.
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3537 on: September 07, 2013, 09:15:35 am »

Summary

4-2 after last night up 2.5 units.

Things I am liking as of now:

Vikings +5
Dolphins +1
Bears -3
Eagles +3.5
Ok St. -28
Minnesota -16.5  New Mexico St may be the worst team in College football

You guys talked me into Texas.

Going Ok St. 1 unit
Minnesota   1unit
Texas      1 unit
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3538 on: September 07, 2013, 09:16:45 am »

I'm not touching the Michigan/Notre Dame game with a 10 foot pole.  I think Michigan covers and wins by 7-10 but you just never know in "rivalry" games.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3539 on: September 07, 2013, 09:19:19 am »

I don't have a feel on that game.  I think it's too early and too much unknown.  Auburn definitely has Gus and talent alone but I think it could be a pickem.  Have no idea what raw talent Chizik left him with.  I do know that A state has been well coached and they could pull an upset. I'm not laying any of my scratch on that one though.

The biggest question imho is how much raw talent Gus has to work with.

I think Auburn will be improved over last year but their overall improvement is probably going to be slower than a lot of Auburn fans hoped when they brought Gus back. I believe that his tenure at Auburn will be in direct correlation to the ability of the Auburn Admin and Fans to be patient.

It's hard to say how really good ASU is going to be when they opened with Ark PB. They did what they should have done, which does say something about them.

I wouldn't place a bet on this game either but I think it is very possible that ASU could pull out a win to the tune of about 38-35.
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3540 on: September 07, 2013, 09:27:00 am »

Just a question. Do you live in Nashvile?  I don't claim to be near as good at nfl as college, but I hold my own. If there is one team I know it's the steelers.  Their o-line is actually healthy for the first time in two years.

They may no cover the 7, but thy will win.

How about 500.00 me and you head up since you think the titans will win period. All I need is your actual name and address and I will take your credit son!

This just proves to me that you are a "hater"....why would I bet straight up with you at even $ if I want the Titans to win outright when I can get +230 elsewhere?  The fact that you think the Steelers have a good Oline just proves that you have no clue about NFL.  I think next time you need to tee off on someone who doesn't know more about sports betting than you do.  Why don't you give me the Titans +7 for $1000 if you are so sure of your Steelers?  And no I don't live in Nashville, if you could read you would know I am in the Bryant area.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3541 on: September 07, 2013, 09:27:36 am »

3 Units
Ohio -4 W
Duke -4 W

2 Units
Lafayette +10.5 L
Georgia -3.5 W
Virginia +23 L
BC -3 W

1 Unit
OK State -26 L
Houston -3 W
Auburn -10.5 W

YTD 9-7, +7 units
« Last Edit: September 07, 2013, 10:46:28 pm by yraciv »
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3542 on: September 07, 2013, 09:29:55 am »

Absolutely last one. :D  Also see the Ohio State line has dropped to -27.  I'm in at -28.

4 TEAM Parlay

OREGON -23½
DUKE -4½
TEXAS -7½
BOWLING GREEN -6½


EDIT- Line on OK just dropped to -21 so I laid on them.  I'm trying to make my deposit bonus if anyone is wondering why I'm playing so much this week, plus I'm solid on my picks. I've stayed away from emotional plays like WKU.  There is a lot to be made the first two or three weeks.  One reason I think pre-season rankings are good. ;)
« Last Edit: September 07, 2013, 09:42:28 am by Dude »
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HogFanatic

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3543 on: September 07, 2013, 09:36:03 am »

I wouldn't pick a winner in the Auburn game. I expect Auburn to lose a close one, but wouldn't lay money.
I would imagine it goes over 62 though. Prolly close to 80.
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3544 on: September 07, 2013, 09:40:06 am »

This just proves to me that you are a "hater"....why would I bet straight up with you at even $ if I want the Titans to win outright when I can get +230 elsewhere?  The fact that you think the Steelers have a good Oline just proves that you have no clue about NFL.  I think next time you need to tee off on someone who doesn't know more about sports betting than you do.  Why don't you give me the Titans +7 for $1000 if you are so sure of your Steelers?  And no I don't live in Nashville, if you could read you would know I am in the Bryant area.

Not to jump in on this little pissing match you have going here, but you don't know more than Jeff about betting. 

2nd you continually post your LOCKS, as you did last year when you started numerous threads about your can't miss pick, then when they did miss you disappeared. 

I AM TYPING THIS IN CAPS SO YOU WILL BE SURE TO NOTICE:  THIS THREAD WAS CREATED TO KEEP PEOPLE LIKE YOU FROM SPOUTING OFF EVERYTHING YOU THINK WITH NO ACCOUNTABILITY FOR YOU PICKS......SOUND FAMILIAR? 

So lets see some results, that will get you some respect in here, like Jeff, and some others who have proved theirs in here for the last 2 years. 

Your LOCKS don't mean @#$# without some stats. 
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3545 on: September 07, 2013, 09:42:45 am »

Georgia -3.5
Good luck here.  For some reason this one seems like a tough one to call. 
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HogFanatic

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3546 on: September 07, 2013, 09:48:58 am »

FWIW, I feel Georgia wins by 14.
Georgia is not gonna start 0-2 again this year. They have a better team.
South Carolina is soft.
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MuskogeeHogFan

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3547 on: September 07, 2013, 09:57:05 am »

Good luck here.  For some reason this one seems like a tough one to call. 

I agree, I wouldn't go there. I think S. Carolina wins and Clowney (after being dissed a bit last week) has a big day at least in terms of Hurries, if not Sacks.
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Porked Tongue

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3548 on: September 07, 2013, 10:25:23 am »

Nothing new here, but I'll express it anyway.

When you look at a slate of games, you tend to look at games that "jump out" at you as being 'wrong'.  More often a game looks "neutral".  Hence why most people don't better dozens of games per day.

When you look at the games people choose, they obviously wager based on a "scale' of some kind with the difference in amounts risked. 

Something along the lines of:

1 unit = 60% sure
2 units= 70% sure
3 units= 80% sure

Other things influence wagers too.  Things like it being your team of choice, it's a big tv game, you simply hate a team, looking to make some bank, chasing some previous loses or even boredom.  All those things cloud judgment.

The keys?  No emotion.  No exotics.  Loss limits each week.  Don't play catch-up.  Minimize number of games played.

I had a real illness years ago.  It was numbing.  Once I found the bottom, I sat out a few years.  Then when I resumed, I followed the rules I listed above and it helped me a ton.

Two final things:
Value the half point on hard numbers(3.5 vs 3, 7.5 vs 7, etc)
Don't brag during a winning streak. :)

As for today, my first public picks for this thread are:

Ok St -27
NW/Syr over 53
Penn St -24.5

All 1 unit.



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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3549 on: September 07, 2013, 10:26:51 am »

Add: Wazzu/USC o54
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