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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340115 times)

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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3400 on: September 05, 2013, 07:36:29 pm »

Laid on Duke.
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3401 on: September 05, 2013, 07:51:28 pm »

EXTREME rookie question ahead:

If it says I bet "$20" to win "$19.05", I win $19.05 plus my $20?

Or I bet $20, win $19.05, and lose 95 cents?
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3402 on: September 05, 2013, 07:52:42 pm »

Laid on Duke.
i think if you had laid on all of those you would have at worse gone 3 and 2 and atto my old eyes a good shot at 100 percent

duke is a solid go imo you boys may have talked me into a few more
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3403 on: September 05, 2013, 07:55:08 pm »

Took
Ravens +7.5
48 under
One unit parlay
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3404 on: September 05, 2013, 07:55:57 pm »

I'm getting SO friggin stoked about this season!  Getting the spreadsheets in shape, plugging in numbers, and seeing some nice preliminary numbers coming out.  Several of the power rankings hit 80+% on home favorites for opening weekend (Burdoff, Atom, Moore, Argh, Dokter, median (predictiontracker)).  Just need another week or 3 to start to build some confidence in the numbers and start fishing for other angles. I'm liking my chances of finding a few 70+% angles and maybe one or two 80+% angles by late season.  Hope springs eternal :)
« Last Edit: September 05, 2013, 08:06:41 pm by DadVader1 »
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3405 on: September 05, 2013, 07:56:42 pm »

EXTREME rookie question ahead:

If it says I bet "$20" to win "$19.05", I win $19.05 plus my $20?

Or I bet $20, win $19.05, and lose 95 cents?

A win on 20 bet will pay 39.05 you don't lose your money
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3406 on: September 05, 2013, 07:57:48 pm »

Went Denver -7. Just got home to realize I ain't missed a play, sweet!  1 unit.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3407 on: September 05, 2013, 08:01:58 pm »

EXTREME rookie question ahead:

If it says I bet "$20" to win "$19.05", I win $19.05 plus my $20?

Or I bet $20, win $19.05, and lose 95 cents?

never worry about rookie questions i still learn somehting after aboutr 50 years after my first bet when i took myself against an indian that whoped me hard in a boxing match i use to run numbers for a friend from my first pawn shop and ill tel you flat i learned something about a yearago from reading this thread i never understood

but yeah when you bet online it will lock up your money so you can pay
why there are brusers in real life and such in real life is because you dont have to normally lock up your money so a trusted man would run through his 500 dollar deposit with us then lay a 1000 dollar bet and lose it and disappear

so in person and online has different things

to be honest you find a guy to take your money localy is bettter and safer i get soime killer lines sometimes nowadays from my local trying to get some extra inflow

but the downside to having a local you have to wory about stings and such


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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3408 on: September 05, 2013, 08:02:51 pm »

ill say it again you boys have big brass balls on this here first nfl game i expect some posts here explaining how you boys hit it or missed it
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3409 on: September 05, 2013, 08:04:01 pm »

A win on 20 bet will pay 39.05 you don't lose your money

Haha, just making sure.  I put $20 on the Texas-BYU on Texas -7 and it said $19.05.

I might re-think that and put more.  I don't see BYU hanging in there, but you never know with the sips.
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Oliver

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3410 on: September 05, 2013, 08:04:49 pm »

Good to see you Oliver.... Still a mets fan?

Unfortunately yes
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3411 on: September 05, 2013, 08:06:42 pm »

Haha, just making sure.  I put $20 on the Texas-BYU on Texas -7 and it said $19.05.

I might re-think that and put more.  I don't see BYU hanging in there, but you never know with the sips.

if you ever want to trust a former hilbilly trust one now it will be texas by 30
that is a lock of the week if i miss it ill stop posting here so much from shear embarasment but i went big big in texas local and online just one unit here for math reasons basically cause i cant divide my units here by the percents i bet in life easy without fractions or some such
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3412 on: September 05, 2013, 08:07:24 pm »

mets are solid at times i go with them at times good team really

its worst to be a astros and tampa fan that i coul or could nt be hoho
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3413 on: September 05, 2013, 08:11:47 pm »

aboutr 50 years after my first bet when i took myself against an indian that whoped me hard in a boxing match

I just LOVE all of the experience that we have in this thread!  I think we're going to do well this season ... and have fun as we do it.
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3414 on: September 05, 2013, 08:15:43 pm »

I just LOVE all of the experience that we have in this thread!  I think we're going to do well this season ... and have fun as we do it.

Hoping he's better in betting lines then within the boxing lines. HAHA.

I just put $100 on Texas, BJO.  Hope you're right!  Pays me $95.30 if I win. 

That'd be a nice "virgin bet" lol
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3415 on: September 05, 2013, 08:17:14 pm »

those other boys are better than me but if you took that bet jus cause of me ill paypal you 50 if im wrong but this be the olny time
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3416 on: September 05, 2013, 08:18:30 pm »

EXTREME rookie question ahead:

If it says I bet "$20" to win "$19.05", I win $19.05 plus my $20?

Or I bet $20, win $19.05, and lose 95 cents?

I'll try and answer this so that you get the question answered and understand why.

What you see is called the juice (sometimes known as vigor or vig.) this is the way books make money. If they made even action on both sides, they would only break even. They would pay the winners the same amount the losers lost.

So they charge 10% ( standard) on a bet so that on winning bets, they still get money plus the money the loser bets bring. So for example, in your bet...

You put 20 bucks on the table and won. You get the 20 bucks added back to your account plus you won another 20 bucks minus 10% for juice.
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3417 on: September 05, 2013, 08:22:38 pm »

I'll try and answer this so that you get the question answered and understand why.

What you see is called the juice (sometimes known as vigor or vig.) this is the way books make money. If they made even action on both sides, they would only break even. They would pay the winners the same amount the losers lost.

So they charge 10% ( standard) on a bet so that on winning bets, they still get money plus the money the loser bets bring. So for example, in your bet...

You put 20 bucks on the table and won. You get the 20 bucks added back to your account plus you won another 20 bucks minus 10% for juice.

Ok, that makes sense.  I figured there was an online profit somewhere in it, other than your cash-out.

Thanks for both of y'alls help. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3418 on: September 05, 2013, 08:48:15 pm »

Actually the vig or vigorish applies to losing bets only. Take a team -7 points. Wanna win 100.00 you bet 110.00.  If you win you win the 100.00 and keep your 110.00

If you lose you lose 110.00

A book that takes a thousand dollars on a game their goal is 500.00 on on team and 500.00 on the other. Either way they pay out 500.00 to the winners and collect 550.00 from the losers.  This is one reason the line will move. To try and get even money on both sides of the same game.
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Break & Run

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3419 on: September 05, 2013, 09:13:35 pm »

Yeah, the local bookie I know charges 0% juice for winners and 10% on the losers.  Is that standard?
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3420 on: September 05, 2013, 09:18:27 pm »

Yeah, the local bookie I know charges 0% juice for winners and 10% on the losers.  Is that standard?
nowadays soso man
 i think the game has changed a lot with olnine stuff

btw im impressed with jeff with vig that is straight old school

i still get a much reduced than that but i think if you talk to the man its all negotaible
you need to be very honest with yourself your family and your book how much you intend to sped each month as you develop a relationship that number will drop a lot man
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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3421 on: September 05, 2013, 10:09:25 pm »

Howdy all!  I have been gone a while, but i heard it is football season again?  Checking in on my favorite type threads!  The degenerates.  My people.  ;)  i use that affectionately, as I am paddling the boat, right beside you.  I read back the past couple pages.  Yes, these threads are hands down the best.  People here take of the cardinal colored blinders, and have real (less biased) opinions.

Well, I am late to the party, but also took okie st.
I also have FAU for tonights game at +21.5.  This is a free bet.  I just think that spread is huge against a conference opponent.  Looking to last week, E Carolina did lay the smack down on Dominion, but to be honest, i have never even heard of that team until i was checking this matchup out???  And FAU, didn't lose by much more than 21 to Miami, last week.  I know they are not the Miami of old, but still put enough weight on that showing to sway my bet.

I will be locking other teams in tomorrow.  As for now tho, that is all I am locked in on.

Wow, that one was close!  A W, but not till the last two minutes.  I went to smoke, thinking i was toast, came back to see a W!
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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3422 on: September 05, 2013, 10:32:20 pm »

Lost my under bet on den, looking solid for den spread tho....
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3423 on: September 05, 2013, 10:54:50 pm »

With the online stuff, moving beyond entry level classes, usually you'll see -110 after both sides of the line (the 10% juice), meaning that you have to bet $110 to win $100.  Sometimes, they try to move money & the distribution of bets by moving the line.  For example, if the line opens at -22 Alabama and everyone is still betting Alabama, the line may move to -22.5, -23, -23.5, -24, etc. to try to get more money on their opponent.  Sometimes, instead of moving the line to try to influence the bet, they'll change the juice so that one side pays more and the other side pays less.  For example, they may not want an Alabama line to dip below -21, so instead of going to -20.5 at -110, they might leave it at -21 and charge less juice so that it's -21 Bama -105 and +21 Opponent -115 (meaning that you only have to bet $105 on Bama to win $100 but you have to bet $115 on Opponent to win $100) or maybe -21 Bama Even and +21 Opponent -120 (meaning you only have to bet $100 on Bama to win $100 but you have to bet $120 on Opponent to win $100).
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3424 on: September 05, 2013, 11:07:25 pm »

Lost my under bet on den, looking solid for den spread tho....
I hit the over, but have no chance with Bal.,it would appear.

Still going to be at -3 for the year.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3425 on: September 05, 2013, 11:08:53 pm »

any you boys get a bigte of this result of denver baltamore

i didnt think that you dide cause noone could when  i say i cant get a bite i expect the unexpected to happen and sometimes the average which i guess makes no darn sense but look men some times a game is as fickle as one of those nerds 6 sided dice this was one of those
ill have better angles for yall and im sure you men will have better ideas after this first werlk

you men notice i call all yall men not boys becayse risking real things on the calculation and facing the reprocusions make you men

same as in wr as me in the vietnam

this was a wild card ole game not in a milion damn ikleyears i see this
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3426 on: September 05, 2013, 11:12:21 pm »

shoot that dint make any sense
im sorry folk on me lately for not being to darn carful in type the gest of this is i like you guys carry on do some god analisi and i will to


best dang thread in any forum i do and i am in a lot of them




this here a modify arizona state is a dang real eam watching them now real ole team be wary
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3427 on: September 05, 2013, 11:33:03 pm »

Actually the vig or vigorish applies to losing bets only. Take a team -7 points. Wanna win 100.00 you bet 110.00.  If you win you win the 100.00 and keep your 110.00

If you lose you lose 110.00

A book that takes a thousand dollars on a game their goal is 500.00 on on team and 500.00 on the other. Either way they pay out 500.00 to the winners and collect 550.00 from the losers.  This is one reason the line will move. To try and get even money on both sides of the same game.

Well, this is correct also. It's actually debatable on who pays the juice/vig. Some look at it your way, and the way you explain it , I agree with. There are others, like me, who looks at it this way....

Me and you both play the same game on opposite sides of a -110 bet. We both lay 100 bucks. The loser - would have lost whatever he put at risk, in this case 100 bucks with or without the services of the bookmaker. The winner paid. The winnings, which would have been $110 without using the services of the bookmaker, were shorted by ten dollars - 9.1 percent.

And, the term vigorish comes from a Yiddish word meaning "winnings"


We are saying the same thing, we just view it from different sides.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3428 on: September 06, 2013, 12:00:00 am »

Gosh, I'm impressed with the Denver defense. Never saw that coming. Course I never saw manning throwing for 7 tds either. My gut said never bet against manning but the numbers said play on Baltimore.

I shouldn't have made a conflicted play.... I still haven't learned discipline.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3429 on: September 06, 2013, 12:19:40 am »

1-1 tonight came out only 25 bucks ahead

heers to the weekend 


huckleberry sorry to hear your problems again my man i not a big man in south texcas but i f i can helkp ill trake you guys in



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razorbacker231

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3430 on: September 06, 2013, 12:39:17 am »

2-1 tonight.
FAU by the skin of my teeth. *5
DEN spread *2
Lost den O/U parlayed with den to cover *.5
Good night.  Looking forward to this weekend.

Billyjoezark, i wish i could offer You good insight as to why i bet this game.  I have none.  I bet on a good powered offense, against a D that has lost a lot of players, and in Peyton i trust...
Not good betting analysis, i know.  But i went with it.
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HogFanInBryant

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3431 on: September 06, 2013, 08:09:16 am »

I AM TYPING THIS IN ALL CAPS SO THIS STANDS OUT!

GET ALL OVER OREGON ST BEFORE IT GOES TO -28 OR OVER.

I JUST GOT SOME INFO ON THIS GAME AND BET $350 AT -27.5 AND WISH I WOULD HAVE HAD IT WHEN THE LINE WAS ONLY -26 YESTERDAY.

EITHER WAY THEY WILL CRUSH HAWAII AND MIGHT HAVE THE SPREAD COVERED BY HALFTIME.

GOOD LUCK!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3432 on: September 06, 2013, 08:27:34 am »

I AM TYPING THIS IN ALL CAPS SO THIS STANDS OUT!

GET ALL OVER OREGON ST BEFORE IT GOES TO -28 OR OVER.

I JUST GOT SOME INFO ON THIS GAME AND BET $350 AT -27.5 AND WISH I WOULD HAVE HAD IT WHEN THE LINE WAS ONLY -26 YESTERDAY.

EITHER WAY THEY WILL CRUSH HAWAII AND MIGHT HAVE THE SPREAD COVERED BY HALFTIME.

GOOD LUCK!

I really wanna put confidence in this.

Saturday card set with the possibility (who am I kidding?) of last minute degenerate adds:

Miami +3 -115    1u
Ok St. -26     2u
Oregon -22.5     1u
Navy/IU o68     1u
BAY/BUF o67.5    1u

Other possible additions:

Cincy -7.5
Oregon St. (Now) -27
Oklahoma -21
Toledo +17
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3433 on: September 06, 2013, 08:50:20 am »

Glad I didn't touch Baltimore last night.  Only one game and early but Wes welker may have been the tool Denver needed to get over the hump and become a Super Bowl contention team, they looked GOOOOOD.  Now wishing I had gotten welker/manning on my fantasy team, if you have both you may be set for the season.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3434 on: September 06, 2013, 09:36:57 am »

I AM TYPING THIS IN ALL CAPS SO THIS STANDS OUT!

GET ALL OVER OREGON ST BEFORE IT GOES TO -28 OR OVER.

I JUST GOT SOME INFO ON THIS GAME AND BET $350 AT -27.5 AND WISH I WOULD HAVE HAD IT WHEN THE LINE WAS ONLY -26 YESTERDAY.

EITHER WAY THEY WILL CRUSH HAWAII AND MIGHT HAVE THE SPREAD COVERED BY HALFTIME.

GOOD LUCK!


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HogFanatic

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3435 on: September 06, 2013, 09:46:07 am »

I've never really invested in sports games. I enjoy picking them however. So please forgive my ignorance here, as I don't have time to read the entire thread, but I have a question...

...if you take a wager early while the spread is wide, but then it tightens up, are you locked at your wager? I would assume so
Also, anyone got a link I could use to bone up on some of the jargon?
I am monitoring my picks over the next couple of weeks to test the waters and may jump in about the time we hit conference play.

Thanks in advance.
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3436 on: September 06, 2013, 09:50:19 am »

Summary

4-2 after last night up 2.5 units.

Things I am liking as of now:

Vikings +5
Dolphins +1
Bears -3
Eagles +3.5
Ok St. -28
Minnesota -16.5  New Mexico St may be the worst team in College football
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3437 on: September 06, 2013, 09:52:22 am »

I've never really invested in sports games. I enjoy picking them however. So please forgive my ignorance here, as I don't have time to read the entire thread, but I have a question...

...if you take a wager early while the spread is wide, but then it tightens up, are you locked at your wager? I would assume so
Also, anyone got a link I could use to bone up on some of the jargon?
I am monitoring my picks over the next couple of weeks to test the waters and may jump in about the time we hit conference play.

Thanks in advance.

You get it where you took it. 

Just my opinion, now is the time to get in.  Vegas gets better reads on teams as the season goes and lines will tighten.  You can get some pretty good value early and late in my opinion.  I always try to slow down once mid season comes around. 
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3438 on: September 06, 2013, 09:53:32 am »

Already on the card:
Duke -4 1u
Ok St -26 4u
Texas -7 2u


looking at:
Cincy -7.5
Oregon -23
S Car +3.5
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HogFanatic

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3439 on: September 06, 2013, 09:59:07 am »

Hooch,

Yeah, I figured as much, but thanks for the advice.
Also, how does picking the O/U work? Can you just pick a total with no winner?
Seems the O/U is easier for me to pick.
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3440 on: September 06, 2013, 10:49:50 am »

Yep. If its 50 and you bet the over, you just need 50 points to be scored in the game. Doesn't matter if its 51-0 you win
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HogFanatic

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3441 on: September 06, 2013, 10:56:19 am »

Cool deal. Thanks. I could play that game all day long.
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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3442 on: September 06, 2013, 10:57:01 am »

What are yall's thoughts on double or triple dipping on one game? Ex: Last year Oregon vs. Arizona State I tripled dipped because the line kept dropping and I thought Oregon was going to blow them out (which they ended up winning by 3 TDs). If I remember I took it at like -10, -9, and -8. Do you guys ever do this as well with lines you fall in love with?
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HogFanatic

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3443 on: September 06, 2013, 10:57:45 am »

Everyone saw the spread on the Ole Miss game, right?
Doubtful they cover that.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3444 on: September 06, 2013, 11:04:42 am »

What are yall's thoughts on double or triple dipping on one game? Ex: Last year Oregon vs. Arizona State I tripled dipped because the line kept dropping and I thought Oregon was going to blow them out (which they ended up winning by 3 TDs). If I remember I took it at like -10, -9, and -8. Do you guys ever do this as well with lines you fall in love with?

yes. if the line keeps going in the right direction.

remember that the matchups stay the same. If you like a -10 favorite, all things being equal, why wouldn't you like a -9 fav? (unless there is a suspension/injury)

line changes just means vegas is trying to even out the tables.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3445 on: September 06, 2013, 11:36:25 am »

Hooch,

Yeah, I figured as much, but thanks for the advice.
Also, how does picking the O/U work? Can you just pick a total with no winner?
Seems the O/U is easier for me to pick.


Totals are great, it's where I excel being a heavily math oriented person.
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Baseball Hog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3446 on: September 06, 2013, 11:58:56 am »

My picks for the week so far:

Florida -3
Oregon -22
WKU +14
UGA -3
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3447 on: September 06, 2013, 12:00:48 pm »

ESPN's College FB podcast yesterday featured Phil Steele for his weekly visit. He evals a few games and picks those games against the spread.  He picked the following:

UGA
UF
OU
Sips
USC ("I like this one greater than the 2 TD's", which threw me for a loop b/c it opened at -16.5 and has moved to -15.5)
ND
UVA....yes, UVA.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3448 on: September 06, 2013, 12:32:08 pm »

ESPN's College FB podcast yesterday featured Phil Steele for his weekly visit. He evals a few games and picks those games against the spread.  He picked the following:

UGA
UF
OU
Sips
USC ("I like this one greater than the 2 TD's", which threw me for a loop b/c it opened at -16.5 and has moved to -15.5)
ND
UVA....yes, UVA.

I agree with him on all of them, except ND and UVA. I think the ND/Mich game is dead on. 17-13 is what I'm thinking, with a Mich win. I'm still in the study faze on Oregon and VA, but the only thing I can see that would stop this from covering, is the distance Oregon has to travel. I need to see how they fared when they traveled that far away. If travel is historically not an issue, then Oregon covers this in the 2nd quarter and coasts.
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Hoggy1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3449 on: September 06, 2013, 12:49:44 pm »

Pats/Bills under 51
Titans +7 at Steelers
49ers/Packers over 48 1/2
Bucs -3 at Jets

Looking at some college lines tonight
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