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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 330284 times)

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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3250 on: September 03, 2013, 04:23:37 pm »

Okie State -26 @ UT-SA

is this a decent blowout game to throw money at?

Why the hell would OSU be playing them on the road or am I seeing it wrong?

Was thinking the same thing about Okie.  Also, why are people high on Miami?  Seems an odd bet.
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3251 on: September 03, 2013, 04:31:37 pm »

Totally up to you. If you bet the horns today -7 and they have 20 players miss curfew and get suspended you are locked in.

Then again you wait and it could go up to -11

Flip a coin there. I would rather wait and not bet it than get locked in and something happen, but that's just me.

Mack Brown aint suspending anyone this season. ;)  You talked me into locking in.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3252 on: September 03, 2013, 04:36:51 pm »

Was thinking the same thing about Okie.  Also, why are people high on Miami?  Seems an odd bet.

People are severely undervaluing Florida, IMO. Miami isn't the class of the ACC, and Florida will be in the hunt for the SECE and SEC championship.

The more I see and think, the more I like Tejas -7

I wish y'all would hurry up though and finalize your picks, I'm tailing all wek long. lol
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3253 on: September 03, 2013, 04:36:52 pm »

Mack Brown aint suspending anyone this season. ;)  You talked me into locking in.

Lock it in then.  Definitely a solid pick today. I just can't work tht way.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3254 on: September 03, 2013, 04:40:36 pm »

Mack Brown aint suspending anyone this season. ;)  You talked me into locking in.

Here's the scoop from my perspective.  I am looking at this as a nickel or dime play.  No way in hell I'm putting up 500.00 to a grand of my hard WON money on 18 to 20 year olds until the day of.  If I were betting 50.00 bucks why not.

If the line moves to a point where I'm not comfortable I just won't play it.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3255 on: September 03, 2013, 04:41:29 pm »

Concerns me a little that we all see texas as a pick we really like. Vegas is chumming us in.....

The sips opened -6 or 6.5 on my site, and now sit at -7.5. Spread.com has 87% of action on them.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3256 on: September 03, 2013, 04:41:58 pm »

People are severely undervaluing Florida, IMO. Miami isn't the class of the ACC, and Florida will be in the hunt for the SECE and SEC championship.

The more I see and think, the more I like Tejas -7

I wish y'all would hurry up though and finalize your picks, I'm tailing all wek long. lol

Agreed I'm not sold on the canes nor do I think Florida showed anything against Toledo, an why should they?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3257 on: September 03, 2013, 04:42:58 pm »

Concerns me a little that we all see texas as a pick we really like. Vegas is chumming us in.....

The sips opened -6 or 6.5 on my site, and now sit at -7.5. Spread.com has 87% of action on them.

They know their business!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3258 on: September 03, 2013, 05:00:48 pm »

Here's the scoop from my perspective.  I am looking at this as a nickel or dime play.  No way in hell I'm putting up 500.00 to a grand of my hard WON money on 18 to 20 year olds until the day of.  If I were betting 50.00 bucks why not.

If the line moves to a point where I'm not comfortable I just won't play it.

great point.

i'm playing for much less than most of you guys.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3259 on: September 03, 2013, 05:24:16 pm »

I try to follow Jeff's advice while still indulging my old habit of trying to find a "bargain" or two early in the week.  When lines come out, I like to search them for one or two that look like bargains.  Largely from listening to the advice of several of you folks, I usually keep those early plays small, like my 1/2 unit play on TX this week.  I've been known to add units on Friday or Saturday if things still check out later in the week.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3260 on: September 03, 2013, 05:37:16 pm »

exactly this.  if it moves away, you wait for another one.  don't want to put $ on say UT -7 but then Ash tears his ACL in practice.  Like jeff mentioned, suspensions.  Also, weather.  Say it's a pass oriented offense vs a run oriented offense and then we find out thursday it's supposed to rain on saturday, that could push the line in favor of the run oriented team.   

All of what you and Jeff said. Might I also add that some people, and this is one reason I wait, want the best line possible. For instance, I KNEW arkansas was undervalued at -11 against lala. I pointed that out in many non investing threads on hogville and got laughed at. I knew that public betting would side with hogville and would remember last year when we lost to ULM. The public doesn't always bet according to numbers, rather on emotion. Knowing this, I knew the line would keep falling. I wanted to wait to get the lowest line possible.

I ended up not playing it, but my theory was spot on. So some people wait for a line to move in their favor. You may wait for an 11 point line to move to 10 or a 22 point line to 21.

Just my 2 pennies
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3261 on: September 03, 2013, 05:47:05 pm »

The thing with Florida and Miami is simple....can Florida stop the Duke from running all over the field. If they can, Miami can't move the ball. If they don't, Miami wins big. You willing to put any coin on it one way or the other?
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3262 on: September 03, 2013, 05:55:44 pm »

The thing with Florida and Miami is simple....can Florida stop the Duke from running all over the field. If they can, Miami can't move the ball. If they don't, Miami wins big. You willing to put any coin on it one way or the other?

Not one red cent, or purple, or green, or even some of that crazy Zimbabwe money.  I may just wait on a few games and play halves, worked the last 2 bets I played.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3263 on: September 03, 2013, 06:22:32 pm »

I like the under wazzu /USC TOTAL OF 54. Auburn gave up a lot of yards, but limited the cougars to 24 points. USC has a stronger defense and wazzu could be a little jet lagged fr the travel to auburn then to USC. I expect some offense between the 20's and settling for fg's.

Meanwhile, USC can't find a QB. USC is bad on offense. Hawaii isn't known for their bone crushing defense, but the Trojans couldn't find a way to consistently mive the ball. 7 of their 30 points came on a pick 6.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a cougar outright win. But as the public sees a mike leach offense, they will hammer the over. I like it at 54 but would love it higher.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3264 on: September 03, 2013, 06:45:44 pm »

I like Oklahoma giving up 20 at home to a West Virginia team that struggled to get away with a win against Wiliam an Mary. Oklahoma will stop WVU and force a lot of 3rd and long. OU will continue to find ways to score. In the Big 12 opener for both schools, I like OU big .
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3265 on: September 03, 2013, 07:13:48 pm »

Making my head spin. Too early for me too look at most of this.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3266 on: September 03, 2013, 07:32:49 pm »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3267 on: September 03, 2013, 07:41:19 pm »

Making my head spin. Too early for me too look at most of this.

Lol...basically a bunch of spitballing at this point. Just throwing some things out and seeing what sticks. I feel ya though, it is a lot of info.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3268 on: September 03, 2013, 07:42:43 pm »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.


They look like good plays...ill check in with these Saturday night or early Sunday.
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OldCoot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3269 on: September 03, 2013, 07:46:30 pm »

Here's the scoop from my perspective.  I am looking at this as a nickel or dime play.  No way in hell I'm putting up 500.00 to a grand of my hard WON money on 18 to 20 year olds until the day of.  If I were betting 50.00 bucks why not.

If the line moves to a point where I'm not comfortable I just won't play it.

I get your point.  I tell people that playing in $100 hold'em tournaments is a helluva lot different than playing in $1000 ones.  It changes how you play.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3270 on: September 03, 2013, 08:20:52 pm »

these are the ones im playing this week

 Texas U -7½ -105* vs BYU
Toledo +17½ -110* vs Missouri
Louisville -41 -110* vs Eastern Kentucky
Arkansas -32½ -110* vs Samford 
 Miami Florida +3 -115* vs Florida 


Im big on the texas louisville train
not gonna go big  on arkansas 32 is a lot but we have an ole dang coach that likes to run it up
small on toledo because it just feels like a trap luke
dtill debating miami... big on them boys but still debaing
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3271 on: September 03, 2013, 08:46:43 pm »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.
i like those not that patriot one as much because i think the pats aint all that great this year but i like those in my opinion you can bet atainst the raiders and jets nearly every week and have a great chance of winning
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3272 on: September 03, 2013, 08:46:46 pm »

these are the ones im playing this week

 Texas U -7½ -105* vs BYU
Toledo +17½ -110* vs Missouri
Louisville -41 -110* vs Eastern Kentucky
Arkansas -32½ -110* vs Samford 
 Miami Florida +3 -115* vs Florida 


Im big on the texas louisville train
not gonna go big  on arkansas 32 is a lot but we have an ole dang coach that likes to run it up
small on toledo because it just feels like a trap luke
dtill debating miami... big on them boys but still debaing

Last time I saw someone lay this much chalk, they were cleaning out the erasers from the chalk board.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3273 on: September 03, 2013, 09:52:52 pm »

Can't warm up to anything and only still have Miami +3. I'm real high on Duke Johnson and Stephen Morris, very low on Florida's offense. Johnson and Morris are the type of tandem that can put up enough points against a solid D that beats a lackadaisical offense. Factor that in with Miami playing with a chip on their shoulder at home in an in state match up. I'll take the FG. Miami is out to prove something this season and they know this is a must win if they want to do that.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3274 on: September 03, 2013, 09:56:43 pm »

these are the ones im playing this week

 Texas U -7½ -105* vs BYU
Toledo +17½ -110* vs Missouri
Louisville -41 -110* vs Eastern Kentucky
Arkansas -32½ -110* vs Samford 
 Miami Florida +3 -115* vs Florida 


Im big on the texas louisville train
not gonna go big  on arkansas 32 is a lot but we have an ole dang coach that likes to run it up
small on toledo because it just feels like a trap luke
dtill debating miami... big on them boys but still debaing

Obviously you know your way around a bet, but!   I wouldn't jump on Miami so quickly and wouldn't jump off Florida either.

Rivalry! SEC! What did either team need to show?  Same as hogs. Run right in right occasional pass.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3275 on: September 03, 2013, 10:00:48 pm »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.


Just a couple things to check and I hate the cows. Jason Pierre Paul has not practied as of noon today.  2 of giants top 4 db's out for sure.  Just a couple reasons.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3276 on: September 03, 2013, 10:04:28 pm »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.


Tampa Bay because its Tampa Bay. Even worse its the Jets. Who knows what you will get.

Pats I'm with you golden play!
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Ray Piggers

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3277 on: September 03, 2013, 10:07:29 pm »

Last time I saw someone lay this much chalk, they were cleaning out the erasers from the chalk board.


Yo, Will. I live out in California, and a guy I know said he used to work with a huge hogfan out here named Will Clinton. That wouldn't be you now would it?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3278 on: September 03, 2013, 11:03:50 pm »

I just broke my own rule. Played okie st -26.5 for a 5 unit nickel play. I don't care who plays or gets suspended.
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razorjack12

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3279 on: September 04, 2013, 12:50:21 am »

I was 8-2 in SEC play this weekend.

My picks for SEC games this week:

Florida -3
Kentucky -16 1/2
South Carolina +3
UAB +34 1/2 (LSU)
W Ky +13 1/2 (Tenn)
Auburn -13
Toledo +16 1/2 (Mizzou)


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UAstudent13

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3280 on: September 04, 2013, 12:53:54 am »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.

I placed a sizable bet on the bucs at -3, the jets are horrendous.

I believe the cowboys will win the game Sunday night, but it should be another close one as it always is; however, the Giants have a ton of injuries and the Boys defense actually looked the best it has looked in years in the preseason vs. other team's starting offenses. I actually like the boys by a TD and finally beating Eli at AT&T Stadium
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3281 on: September 04, 2013, 01:21:32 am »

Yo, Will. I live out in California, and a guy I know said he used to work with a huge hogfan out here named Will Clinton. That wouldn't be you now would it?

Nah bro, never lived in Cali. Visited out there for a while, but never lived. Besides, my real last name isn't Clinton.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3282 on: September 04, 2013, 01:21:57 am »

I just broke my own rule. Played okie st -26.5 for a 5 unit nickel play. I don't care who plays or gets suspended.

damn man, strong.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3283 on: September 04, 2013, 01:30:36 am »

Going ahead and putting these down:

Ball St -9 1*
Ohio St -29 1*
Texas -7 2*

Patriots -11 1*
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Ray Piggers

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3284 on: September 04, 2013, 04:57:57 am »

Nah bro, never lived in Cali. Visited out there for a while, but never lived. Besides, my real last name isn't Clinton.

Told him I'd make sure. Thanks!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3285 on: September 04, 2013, 05:56:49 am »

I was 8-2 in SEC play this weekend.

My picks for SEC games this week:

Florida -3
Kentucky -16 1/2
South Carolina +3
UAB +34 1/2 (LSU)
W Ky +13 1/2 (Tenn)
Auburn -13
Toledo +16 1/2 (Mizzou)




Can't wait for Jeff to see this.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3286 on: September 04, 2013, 06:49:54 am »

Can't wait for Jeff to see this.


Lol. Trying to resist!
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3287 on: September 04, 2013, 07:41:02 am »

I just broke my own rule. Played okie st -26.5 for a 5 unit nickel play. I don't care who plays or gets suspended.

Which rule did you break and what's your angle on this game? That number jumped out to me too, but it's a ton of chalk.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3288 on: September 04, 2013, 07:43:21 am »

I can grab at 26 right now.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3289 on: September 04, 2013, 08:13:29 am »

I'm going to piggyback on some of you guys. I don't like any of the lines this week. 
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3290 on: September 04, 2013, 08:35:36 am »

Locked in OK St. -26 for 2 units.

Looking to grab IU/Navy o67 and BAY/BUF o66 when my books posts them tomorrow. Hopefully they stay there.

Still pondering on WKU +13.5, OK -21, and Zona -10.5.

Opinions on these anyone?
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3291 on: September 04, 2013, 09:10:23 am »

Someone want to explain why I shouldn't take these and run away with them?

Patriots -11....the bills are horrible, and they don't have a QB.
Buccs -4....read above, replace bills with Jets
Giants +3.5....Jason Garrett.check, Romo..check, anyone just give me 1 good reason.

as a Cowboys fan, I will give you some insight on the Giants +3.5...  One, the game is being played at home for the Cowboys on Sunday night.  The place will be rockin.  Two, the Cowboys strength on offense (passing game) matches up very well against the Giants weakness on D (secondary).  Giants secondary is very weak this year and the Cowboys are going to be a pass heavy team.  Who is going to mark Dez, Witten, and Austin?  The giants will HAVE to get pressure with 4 or they are screwed IMO. 

On the other side of the ball, Cowboys actually have a decent D when healthy (which they weren't for most of last year).  Giants O is not as strong with Cruz not in the slot and Hakeem getting older.  The one guy I'm most worried about is David Wilson.  Don't get me wrong, the Giants will score some points, I just don't think it will be enough.

Overall, the Giants secondary is overmatched and Eli is not the Eli he used to be, more mistake prone these days.  I think this game comes down to who's D can get a big stop or two and I give Dallas the edge.  I think Cowboys win this one by at least 6 but I am also a Cowboys homer so take this with a grain of salt. 
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3292 on: September 04, 2013, 09:18:57 am »

What did the OK State line open at?
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3293 on: September 04, 2013, 09:37:03 am »

BTW listened to Cowherd yesterday (for those that don't, I think he is the best on the radio at breaking down college/NFL football) and he mentioned that of all the spreads Vegas had, the dog and the favorite each covered almost exactly 50% - just where they want it.  Same with totals.  Pretty incredible they can be that accurate. 

I try to listen to him everyday, I get more insight from him than I do anywhere else.  He was also amazing last year in his NFL picks (aka his "Blazing 5"), something like 72% against the spread.  Also pretty cool that after his blazing 5 he will bring in this guy from Vegas that will tell him what the sharps in Vegas think of his picks.  Just someone I would suggest everyone in here listen to, if not for the picks at least for the info he provides.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3294 on: September 04, 2013, 09:37:24 am »

as a Cowboys fan, I will give you some insight on the Giants +3.5...  One, the game is being played at home for the Cowboys on Sunday night.  The place will be rockin.  Two, the Cowboys strength on offense (passing game) matches up very well against the Giants weakness on D (secondary).  Giants secondary is very weak this year and the Cowboys are going to be a pass heavy team.  Who is going to mark Dez, Witten, and Austin?  The giants will HAVE to get pressure with 4 or they are screwed IMO. 

On the other side of the ball, Cowboys actually have a decent D when healthy (which they weren't for most of last year).  Giants O is not as strong with Cruz not in the slot and Hakeem getting older.  The one guy I'm most worried about is David Wilson.  Don't get me wrong, the Giants will score some points, I just don't think it will be enough.

Overall, the Giants secondary is overmatched and Eli is not the Eli he used to be, more mistake prone these days.  I think this game comes down to who's D can get a big stop or two and I give Dallas the edge.  I think Cowboys win this one by at least 6 but I am also a Cowboys homer so take this with a grain of salt.

As a Cowboys' fan, I go into each game assuming we're going to lose (sigh).

Something's going to give....Cowboys are 6-0 vs NYG in season openers; NYG are 4-0 at JerryWorld.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3295 on: September 04, 2013, 10:23:34 am »

Which rule did you break and what's your angle on this game? That number jumped out to me too, but it's a ton of chalk.


Rule I broke is betting it this early in the week.  My angle is only that okie states backups should be able to cover that line.  I have certainly been wrong before though :)
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3296 on: September 04, 2013, 10:25:08 am »

BTW listened to Cowherd yesterday (for those that don't, I think he is the best on the radio at breaking down college/NFL football) and he mentioned that of all the spreads Vegas had, the dog and the favorite each covered almost exactly 50% - just where they want it.  Same with totals.  Pretty incredible they can be that accurate. 

I try to listen to him everyday, I get more insight from him than I do anywhere else.  He was also amazing last year in his NFL picks (aka his "Blazing 5"), something like 72% against the spread.  Also pretty cool that after his blazing 5 he will bring in this guy from Vegas that will tell him what the sharps in Vegas think of his picks.  Just someone I would suggest everyone in here listen to, if not for the picks at least for the info he provides.


Cowherd is my favorite as well.  He was smoking on his nfl picks last year.  That was by far the best season picking he has ever had though.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3297 on: September 04, 2013, 10:53:09 am »

OSU -26 4u
Tejas -7 2u
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3298 on: September 04, 2013, 11:27:33 am »

I'm thinking of taking Ohio St also. -29 against San Diego St.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #3299 on: September 04, 2013, 11:46:02 am »


Rule I broke is betting it this early in the week.  My angle is only that okie states backups should be able to cover that line.  I have certainly been wrong before though :)

Well, let's do it baby. My biggest bet thus far.
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