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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 330918 times)

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Tai_Mai_Shu

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2900 on: August 27, 2013, 11:25:36 am »

Hey Vader, nice post.  I agree Melancon is a touch matchup for Gastelum.  I'm looking at Rafel Dos Anjos but don't know if I'll pull the trigger on that.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2901 on: August 27, 2013, 11:31:37 am »

Yeah, I'm actually leaning more toward Cerrone in that one, but I see it as too close for me to pull the trigger either way.  I'm almost tempted to make a very small play on Bubba McDaniel mainly because he's such a big underdog and because, even though he runs hot and cold, when he's hot, he's very good.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2902 on: August 27, 2013, 12:20:07 pm »

Any chance Georgia and Clemson cover 73 points? I've got a strong lean on the under.

If this game were mid or late season, I'd say stay away. However, with this being such a highly anticipated opening week game in front of a monster crowd it's hard to not expect early jitters from offenses. I think the under is the smart play, as I feel taking the over is putting too much blind stock in what each team's offenses were able to accomplish last season. Should be enough ground game to keep the clock moving at a good pace for an under of 73 as well, in my opinion. Would love to hear why you lean under. 
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2903 on: August 27, 2013, 12:42:39 pm »

thats a whole lota points they are making for the overunder i would lean under jus cause its so many points

against sec last year i dont remember clemson scoring over 30 points in any of the three games but the problem is clemsons defense cant stop anyone and georgia should have the best offense in the sec this year and georgia scored over 40 points nearly every game
i think the game will look something like georgia 42 clemson 30

if i had to play an over under id take the under mainly because 73 is a lot of points and a lot of times it seems like when to highly tauted offenses go at it it turns into somewhat of an early defenseive match ---- but i think its just a dice roll cause i can see a 37 to 36 game real easy to

the safer play in my opinion is georgia giving 2 points but i think i may stay completely away from this game because i just cant really get an angle on it

it being played in clemson may throw the whole thing out of whack
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2904 on: August 27, 2013, 06:16:12 pm »

thats a whole lota points they are making for the overunder i would lean under jus cause its so many points

against sec last year i dont remember clemson scoring over 30 points in any of the three games but the problem is clemsons defense cant stop anyone and georgia should have the best offense in the sec this year and georgia scored over 40 points nearly every game
i think the game will look something like georgia 42 clemson 30

if i had to play an over under id take the under mainly because 73 is a lot of points and a lot of times it seems like when to highly tauted offenses go at it it turns into somewhat of an early defenseive match ---- but i think its just a dice roll cause i can see a 37 to 36 game real easy to

the safer play in my opinion is georgia giving 2 points but i think i may stay completely away from this game because i just cant really get an angle on it

it being played in clemson may throw the whole thing out of whack

IMO, the best bet here is Georgia -1.5
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2905 on: August 28, 2013, 12:02:15 am »

If this game were mid or late season, I'd say stay away. However, with this being such a highly anticipated opening week game in front of a monster crowd it's hard to not expect early jitters from offenses. I think the under is the smart play, as I feel taking the over is putting too much blind stock in what each team's offenses were able to accomplish last season. Should be enough ground game to keep the clock moving at a good pace for an under of 73 as well, in my opinion. Would love to hear why you lean under. 

A lot of the reasons you mentioned for starters. In addition, you are asking a team to score at minimum 38 points against a top 10 team. I get why the number is do high. Great QB and very, very suspect defense. But I feel like Georgia has done enough on defense to stop the run this year.

But I've spent the better part of the night crunching numbers and valuing plays and there is just too many unknowns defensively to play this one. I'm walking away from it . I don't like the side either.

I feel really good about the way Oklahoma state is grading out in my preliminary run. I have them as 17 point favorites with a line of -13. Advantage cowboys.

Still like wazzu at auburn. I have auburn at -13 with a -16 line. Advantage cougars.

Still love ole miss for now. Have them at -8 at a -4.5 line. I believe the line is off by that much.


Say what you want about arkansas....I grade this one -14 with a current line of -10.5. If you want it less than 11, jump now. It will be 11.5 or 12 by kickoff.

I have BYU -4 at Virginia. Line currently sits at -1 BYU but its up from a pk.

I have South Carolina graded at -17 with an excellent line of -12.5. Looks like a great play. South Carolina is 22-15-1 as a home favorite under Spurrier.

Things are always subject to change and I'd like to spend tomorrow in the numbers, but I'll post my Thursday picks on Thursday.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2906 on: August 28, 2013, 09:16:19 am »

the only ones im playing this week are louisville giving 20 they should win by 40
vanderbilt
and toledo with 23 over florida

i like a lot of the plays you guys mentioned i just dont think ill bet money on them
i think that okie state miss game could be any score its to unpredictable with miss state having a whole new secondary i do like the points and washington state but not enough to put money on it i wont touch south cadilac until i see their offense i do like arkansas over louisianna giving up to 2 touchdowns but im still waiting to place that one im hoping still the line drops i told yo boys im hardheaded

i been kicking around texas giving 42 points but the over under is 52 and a half and i think its almost a guarenteed over

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2907 on: August 28, 2013, 11:03:03 am »

the only ones im playing this week are louisville giving 20 they should win by 40
vanderbilt
and toledo with 23 over florida

i like a lot of the plays you guys mentioned i just dont think ill bet money on them
i think that okie state miss game could be any score its to unpredictable with miss state having a whole new secondary i do like the points and washington state but not enough to put money on it i wont touch south cadilac until i see their offense i do like arkansas over louisianna giving up to 2 touchdowns but im still waiting to place that one im hoping still the line drops i told yo boys im hardheaded

i been kicking around texas giving 42 points but the over under is 52 and a half and i think its almost a guarenteed over



I'm on Ohio +20.5. I see this being more of a ten point point game. Not sure why you think LOU wins by 40. I would research a bit.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2908 on: August 28, 2013, 11:23:37 am »

Guys, need some help...

Looks like my local is going to the shitter. Anyone have any strong recommendations for websites like 5dimes, sportsbook, etc.?
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2909 on: August 28, 2013, 11:50:24 am »

I use sportsbook, and if you decide to use it also, let me know so we can get referral bonuses.


Also, this week I'm taking

USC-3 -13.5
Vandy +4
LSU -5.5
Georgia -2
Penn St -8
Ok St -13
ULM +21

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2910 on: August 28, 2013, 12:37:08 pm »

I'm on Ohio +20.5. I see this being more of a ten point point game. Not sure why you think LOU wins by 40. I would research a bit.

Who knows how it will play out, but Louisville has arguably the best QB in college ball.  I expect Louisville to score over 40 no problem.  Question is how well their defense comes out of the gate.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2911 on: August 28, 2013, 01:15:25 pm »

I'm on Ohio +20.5. I see this being more of a ten point point game. Not sure why you think LOU wins by 40. I would research a bit.

Well, I took some of my own advice and just read up a little bit more. Now, I'm on the fence. I'm gonna sit this one out the more I think about it now.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2912 on: August 28, 2013, 01:34:10 pm »

The more I look at the ole miss/vandy game, the more I'm just not sure. I'm taking it off my board for now.
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Tai_Mai_Shu

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2913 on: August 28, 2013, 02:04:12 pm »

Who knows how it will play out, but Louisville has arguably the best QB in college ball.  I expect Louisville to score over 40 no problem.  Question is how well their defense comes out of the gate.

I'm not saying Bridgewater is chop liver but I would say Johnny Football, AJ McCarron, Marcus Mariota, Braxton Miller, or Tajh Boyd is just as good or better.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2914 on: August 28, 2013, 03:02:27 pm »

Could certainly be right, but I think most agree that if these guys all could be drafted tomorrow Bridgewater would be the first QB taken.
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Tai_Mai_Shu

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2915 on: August 28, 2013, 03:21:26 pm »

I'm staying away from that game though. Louisville had too many close games last year for my liking. I'm going to wait to see how their season unfold.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2916 on: August 28, 2013, 03:58:45 pm »

Ohio has two big play makers on O in Tettleton and Blankenship. It's in the trenches where they struggle. They have a very sound, veteran coach too.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2917 on: August 28, 2013, 04:33:05 pm »

Ohio has two big play makers on O in Tettleton and Blankenship. It's in the trenches where they struggle. They have a very sound, veteran coach too.

i watched both teams play all year last year ohio is good but they are a ground and pound team where louisville can score in bunches and has a pretty solid defense
louisville has to win style points to get where they want to go i am buyiung in on them i might be wrong but im hoping if i am that enough other games im playing bail me out overall
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2918 on: August 28, 2013, 04:45:34 pm »

ill pick your minds on one lasten

fresno rutgers

i am big fresno from watching both
 you boys tell me if im way off base
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snortman

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2919 on: August 28, 2013, 06:36:25 pm »

What are the good on line sportbooks out there that I can depend for payment if I happen to get lucky? :razorback:
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2920 on: August 28, 2013, 06:39:28 pm »

ill pick your minds on one lasten

fresno rutgers

i am big fresno from watching both
 you boys tell me if im way off base

I like the pick. Dogs that travel over 2 time zones are terrible ATS. Take Fresno with confidence
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Hoggy1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2921 on: August 28, 2013, 06:54:42 pm »

Bovada, formerly Bodog has gotten my payout right every time. No problem for the past 6 years.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2922 on: August 28, 2013, 09:30:32 pm »

I like Fresno. Was on them earlier, but staying with SEC bets week one for disciplinary reasons as week 1 can be tough sometimes.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2923 on: August 29, 2013, 08:34:27 am »

S.Carolina -11.5 / 3 units
Minnesota - 13.5 / 2 units
Ole Piss -3 / 2 units

All three the same way 3 team parlay 1 unit to win 6

I hate playing all favorites but is what it is.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2924 on: August 29, 2013, 03:20:15 pm »

Well, well. Here we are again. For the 3rd straight year, the longest going thread in Hogville's history to not ever turn into a pissing match is poised to be your one stop destination for all your handicapping needs. Picks, expert-in-our-own-minds analysis and breakdowns, wierdly accurate but terribly hard to read opinions, and and more fun than Lindsey Lohan after 3 Mai-Tai's and 2 lines of blow. Woo Hoo!!! What a long summer.

A few quick reminders and maybe even a tip or 2.

1. No promotion, self or otherwise.

2. No posting of websites, gambling, related to gambling, etc. Just don't do it.

3. Don't come in here bragging on Sunday about your action on Saturday. We are all grown here (hopefully). You can't BS a BS'er.

4. Handicapping football games, and other sports I guess, it as much about gut instincts as it is data collection and analysis. If you don't watch football, and a lot of it, don't think you can be serious about betting on it. It's one of the reasons I don't play baseball at all, and NFL very little. My general knowledge is limited, so I have no/few instincts about anything.

5. If this is anything other than a hobby for you, pick a plan, both financially and on choosing your picks, and stick with it. Just because Bob does his one way and wins one year, doesn't mean you need to change anything. Remember, Vegas doesn't actually place the line at what they think the outcome of the game will be, they place the line at where they think they can make the most money. Most sportsbooks make money off the juice, which means they break even on paying and collecting off the bets. Ride it out and after a few years, if you have been smart about managing your bankroll, you should always be able to play with house money to start the season.

6. Something I thought of recently, with all the spying and NSA BS lately, is maybe we shouldn't post actual copies of tickets from online sports books on here. Just seems like a bad idea to me, and I've been guilty in the past. Not calling anyone out or talking down to anyone, or setting up "rules" or anything, just a simple suggestion.

7. If you want to know what sports books are around on the net, or where info can be found on games such as trends, stats, etc. Ask in a PM instead of in the thread. Clutter for one, and I don't want someone new to put out a website and get this thread locked, or deleted. I know that many, many people will be happy to answer specific or general requests, but lets be smart about it.

8. Make money. I'm still in the process of putting together the information from this thread (its a LOT OF STUFF), but there is no need to not be making money with all of the picks in this thread. As I look back, it would have been easy to make a lot of money just by following a couple of people more closely, or certain picks more closely.

My strategy is and has always been the same. Highlight the games that stick out to me the most on Sunday, whittle that down/add other games during the first part of the week, and then by Thursday, have down 5-7 games I want to play. Sometimes I go crazy and pick 10, but there have to be some GREAT lines, and even then I end up wishing I had not bet a few. My money management is the same:

1* = 5% of my bankroll
2* = 10% of my bankroll
3* = 20% of my bankroll
5* = 50% of my bankroll


As you can see, my units are not amount based, but % based, on how strongly I feel about the game. My bankroll last year was $2k, and I more than doubled that. So this year I'm starting off with $3k.

For this week I chose these games and rankings.

1* USC-3 -13.5
1* Vandy +4
2* LSU -5.5
2* Georgia -2
1* Penn St -8
3* Ok St -13
1* ULM +21

 
0-0 record $3000 bankroll 0% ROI
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2925 on: August 29, 2013, 03:33:54 pm »

S.Carolina -11.5 / 3 units
Minnesota - 13.5 / 2 units
Ole Piss -3 / 2 units

All three the same way 3 team parlay 1 unit to win 6


Trailing this. I'll be trailing each cfb & nfl pick of Jeff's this season, per his approval (see Monday or Tuesday of this thread).

I'll still be posting picks of my own and my season winning % will be based on my picks only (obviously).
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2926 on: August 29, 2013, 04:05:01 pm »

recap for this weekend for me
 1400 ill put 5 units on vanderbilt and 2 units on teledo
1 unit on louisvile and 1 unit on fresno
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2927 on: August 29, 2013, 04:24:31 pm »

Locked in so far:

Bama -21
OK St. -13.5
FL/TOL u56.5

One unit on each.

Still waiting for Bama first half line.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2928 on: August 29, 2013, 04:51:48 pm »

In the past, I haven't done so well the first few weeks but tended to make up a lot of ground toward the later part of the season, so I'm keeping my plays small for the first week or three.  I don't plan on adding anything to my tiny plays for the week that I posted earlier.  I want to get a feel for the season and get some numbers to crunch first. 

I LOVE this thread and this time of year and look forward to swapping picks and analyses.  Good luck to all!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2929 on: August 29, 2013, 04:56:58 pm »

UNC +13           2 units.......L
UNC/USC u/57   2 units.......W
Fresno -10         2 units...... L
USCW -24          3 units ......L       
OM/vandy u52.5 1 unit........L

1-4


1 unit plays: 0-1
2 unit plays: 1-2
3 unit plays: 0-1
« Last Edit: August 30, 2013, 01:26:54 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2930 on: August 29, 2013, 09:09:06 pm »

Trailing this. I'll be trailing each cfb & nfl pick of Jeff's this season, per his approval (see Monday or Tuesday of this thread).

I'll still be posting picks of my own and my season winning % will be based on my picks only (obviously).

Good luck buddy.  Looking good, but this game delay makes me nervous on SC / NC
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2931 on: August 29, 2013, 09:09:35 pm »

USC -23 / 4 units.
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2932 on: August 29, 2013, 09:27:43 pm »

Late posting but I'll show picks for tonight anyway:

NC + 11.   1 unit
Utah St + 3 1 unit
Vandy    +3. 1.5 units
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2933 on: August 29, 2013, 09:48:21 pm »

WTH!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2934 on: August 29, 2013, 09:51:05 pm »

Late posting but I'll show picks for tonight anyway:

NC + 11.   1 unit
Utah St + 3 1 unit
Vandy    +3. 1.5 units
Late posting but I'll show picks for tonight anyway:

NC + 11.   1 unit
Utah St + 3 1 unit
Vandy    +3. 1.5 units


Here we friggin go!
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2935 on: August 29, 2013, 09:55:08 pm »

hoh i thought the same but i didnt want to say a peep page on on the ole mis vany game thread i feel like those ole boys all came out of the woodwork
i wish in rl its posible to bet on a dog when they are wining duriunga a game with the original line
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2936 on: August 29, 2013, 10:04:25 pm »

vandy D line looking very good.  Their qb has settled down and they have somewhat established a running game.  Ole Miss O-line wont win this game if vandy keeps getting pressure with 4.  Have not been impressed with them.  Something to think about as the year goes on!  Also have not been impressed with the play calling for Ole Miss' O.  Something to think about as this season goes on.
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2937 on: August 29, 2013, 10:29:37 pm »


Here we friggin go!
what exactly is the problem? Is there some kind of contest or something?
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2938 on: August 29, 2013, 10:31:00 pm »

what exactly is the problem? Is there some kind of contest or something?

just try to get your plays posted before the games start next time is all
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2939 on: August 29, 2013, 10:31:54 pm »

no contest just folk here take this real serious me included

this is a serious thread
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2940 on: August 29, 2013, 10:35:24 pm »

It doesn't bother me if someone posts their picks late. Some people don't take gambling as serious as the next guy. It's just hard for me to believe you had a good card if it's posted after the fact.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2941 on: August 29, 2013, 10:36:07 pm »

Good job to everyone who had SC by the way
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2942 on: August 29, 2013, 10:43:14 pm »

It's just hard for me to believe you had a good card if it's posted after the fact.

This. Generally speaking, the results of those that post after the fact are outstanding, records like 12-2. Obviously, that's not the case w/ la20688 tonight. It will be a first in this thread, the first time someone posts a losing record after-the-fact.
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2943 on: August 29, 2013, 10:51:36 pm »

It doesn't bother me if someone posts their picks late. Some people don't take gambling as serious as the next guy. It's just hard for me to believe you had a good card if it's posted after the fact.
yeah, i get it, and I do like to bet CFB pretty serious. I just don't see how my posting my pick late was going to effect someone's card tonight. I had NC which was a loser and vandy was down 10-0 when I remembered to post.

I noticed the thread late last season, and thought I would post this year, just didn't think about it til Simone mentioned it in the Ole Miss/Vandy thread. So I posted.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2944 on: August 29, 2013, 10:56:50 pm »

yeah, i get it, and I do like to bet CFB pretty serious. I just don't see how my posting my pick late was going to effect someone's card tonight. I had NC which was a loser and vandy was down 10-0 when I remembered to post.

I noticed the thread late last season, and thought I would post this year, just didn't think about it til Simone mentioned it in the Ole Miss/Vandy thread. So I posted.

no worries man.  some people in the past have made a habit of it and all seemed to be winners but I did notice your first had loss and you were down in the vandy.  All good, now ya know.  keep posting in here, it's a good group and you can get some great info.
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2945 on: August 29, 2013, 11:01:10 pm »

no worries man.  some people in the past have made a habit of it and all seemed to be winners but I did notice your first had loss and you were down in the vandy.  All good, now ya know.  keep posting in here, it's a good group and you can get some great info.
Thanks! I just have to get in the habit and make it part of mt routine.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2946 on: August 29, 2013, 11:08:57 pm »

what exactly is the problem? Is there some kind of contest or something?


Problem was when you posted vandy was up, Utah st was covering, and NC driving for the cover.  If I post at the end of games or my people let me bet then I would hit 99%
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2947 on: August 29, 2013, 11:10:26 pm »

I'm just going to make the habit of coming here to post my plays right after I put them in on my site. Last year, I was a bit loose with it as it was my first year of serious gambling.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2948 on: August 29, 2013, 11:12:47 pm »

Thanks! I just have to get in the habit and make it part of mt routine.


Dude it's cool just try and post before kickoff.  If you will notice I'm gonna lose my ass on USC west.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2949 on: August 29, 2013, 11:14:48 pm »


Dude it's cool just try and post before kickoff.  If you will notice I'm gonna lose my ass on USC west.

didn't know you were betting bases now Jeff  ;)
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