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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 329506 times)

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2700 on: July 29, 2013, 04:58:38 pm »

today i lade 8 on arkansas to win more than 4.5 games its 8 to win 2 tho
and 2 on vandy with 4 points

I really hope you become an active part of this thread. I think you're hilarious.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2701 on: July 29, 2013, 05:05:31 pm »

Starting to get excited about the start of the season too!  It's about time to dust off last year's spreadsheets, see if I can use any of the tweaks I made in developing an Oaklawn version, and start getting a blank template ready for the new season.

I like that you're thinking of ways of getting more folks involved and more input, but I have doubts/reservations about doing that on facebook.  In discussing gaming online, I like the small amount of anonymity that a username provides.  I use fb mainly for communicating with friends and family and doubt that I would be very active in posting & debating gaming picks in that venue.

I can definitely see the anonymity angle. Haven't really thought of it like that but I agree completely. And with the NSA tracking EVERYTHING now, I don't want them to have any reason to freeze my sports book acct. Lol...can't wait for this.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2702 on: July 29, 2013, 05:11:45 pm »

I know this topic gets brought up a lot but what sites are ya'll using now for sport betting?

Good to see you in the thread.  Stick around.  Some solid cappers around here.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2703 on: July 29, 2013, 05:27:18 pm »

It's that time of year.  I copied and pasted a post from the end of last year below.

Just in case we have new people to the thread that don't read all 55 pages and I hope it can help someone if they are just starting out.

Okay guys I had a dismal year.  I made pretty good money, but my win percentage was considerably lower than usual.  I was horrible the first 5 or so weeks of the season.  The only reason I made a profit is because of management and a bankroll.


If you are new or a first year player.  Decide what you are going to play with now.  If you won this year and you are new to it.  Take this years bankroll and add half your winnings of this season to it.  Do not touch it.

Example I started with a bankroll this year I have added to each season.  I am immediately taking 50 units of winnings and adding to bankroll next season.  I will not touch that until football starts.  It is in its own account.  The rest of the winnings I will buy the wife something nice or take a trip.  You grow that starting bankroll every year when you can.

Take your bankroll and budget for all season or be prepared to quit early.  If I had not had major cushion I would have been done by week 6.  I did however have enough ready that I learned more and more about each team each week. This allowed me to take more info and bet more units. 

I am far from perfect, but this is a prime example of knowing your money, managing it, and striking when the iron is hot.   Lowest win percentage I have had in years, but still made a profit of over 10k.  All money management and unit strategy. 

Always keep your bet money aside from salary, bills and such.  If you win one year only and you had a bankroll you should never ne behind again.  If year one you were winging it.  Set an amount for next year and stick to it.  Bet accordingly.  Never bet more than half your bankroll on any one game

Never bet a team you care about either way unless its a minimal bet just to have something to play.


Please try and avoid teasers.  In the long run they do not pay off enough in odds to cover the juice. Vegas is not stupid.  They know about teasers and want you to bet them.  Parlays are bad business as well.  I went right at 48% on three team parlays this past season.  That helped me a lot, but that number is high for me.

Get a huge dry erase board.  Start on Monday with your 20 best picks, On Monday modify and so forth.  any game you change your mind on one time before kickoff simply take it off your board. If you stick and your feeling grows add units to that game.

Do not start a season willy nillie and end up having tp chase.  Set your bankroll and stick with it.  Bet accordingly.  If you are not sure just dont bet it. Let it go.

I know I didn't follow my own rules all year, but thats me,  I can lose every week for two years and still be ahead.  Not meaning to sound arrogant, but it's true.  That is the reason I can be down 50 units the first 5 weeks and not bat an eye when I raise my bet. 

Be smart be cautious, and you CAN MAKE MONEY EVERY YEAR.  Good luck to all,
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2704 on: July 29, 2013, 05:35:02 pm »

Little recap from last season. 

College +21 units
Pros + 7 units
Bowl Games plus 78 units.

I made some pretty good coin last year, but was very disappointed in my win %.

I will remedy that percentage this season!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2705 on: July 29, 2013, 05:35:53 pm »

today i lade 8 on arkansas to win more than 4.5 games its 8 to win 2 tho
and 2 on vandy with 4 points

Good to see you on the thread sir!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2706 on: July 29, 2013, 05:38:36 pm »

Well it's that time of year.  Glad to see old time posters emerging and the fresh faces as well.  I hope everyone has a profitable year.  I know I plan to.

Just a preferred rehash for new folks.  Please whenever possible post your picks before the games are played.  That's all I ask :)
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2707 on: July 29, 2013, 06:20:56 pm »

Man I freaking love seeing this thread again. 

I lost my normal guy this year and moved to OK so, I guess I'm gonna go with Bet us. 

Excited for the season to start.

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2708 on: July 29, 2013, 07:54:38 pm »

Man I freaking love seeing this thread again. 

I lost my normal guy this year and moved to OK so, I guess I'm gonna go with Bet us. 

Excited for the season to start.



Where in OK?
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2709 on: July 30, 2013, 09:14:52 am »

Last year I wasn't very good about posting my final pics before games. I would usually bet 3-5 full games then try to drunkenly let it ride on halftime bets.

I would LOVE to see a flow chart of my week to week bank roll. I was up 1k most of the year but chose never to cash out for whatever reason.

March madness was the last week we could bet before our "guy" said we had to zero our accounts. I saw him on the golf course the next week and he kindly handed me 98 bucks that I had left hah. Said he hopes I play again next year too.

what I learned: Halftime bets are stupid for the most part. Oh, and betting college basketball is dumb.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2710 on: July 30, 2013, 09:26:09 am »

Bowl Games plus 78 units.

My instincts told me that Bowl season should be more difficult to pick than late, regular season, but it seemed like several of us did GREAT last Bowl season.  Is that common, or was that just a lucky year?  Do you have a feel for whether you usually tend to do better, worse, or about the same during the Bowls?  Thanks ... and GOOD to see you and the others checking in before the season starts!
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2711 on: July 30, 2013, 09:31:59 am »

Let's start an official 2013-2014 season thread so new folks feel welcome
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2712 on: July 30, 2013, 10:02:09 am »

Let's start an official 2013-2014 season thread so new folks feel welcome

Kinda like this one though.  However, I'd be up for either
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2713 on: July 30, 2013, 11:28:59 am »

Last year I wasn't very good about posting my final pics before games. I would usually bet 3-5 full games then try to drunkenly let it ride on halftime bets.

I would LOVE to see a flow chart of my week to week bank roll. I was up 1k most of the year but chose never to cash out for whatever reason.

March madness was the last week we could bet before our "guy" said we had to zero our accounts. I saw him on the golf course the next week and he kindly handed me 98 bucks that I had left hah. Said he hopes I play again next year too.

what I learned: Halftime bets are stupid for the most part. Oh, and betting college basketball is dumb.

College basketball totals are your friend.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2714 on: July 30, 2013, 12:41:37 pm »

Let's start an official 2013-2014 season thread so new folks feel welcome

Not knocking your thought, but this one hasn't been messed with by mods for a couple years.  The other thing is with multiple threads on this subject we will end up with people posting their picks on different threads.  This brings everyone to the same place, and anytime one of us post in it it goes right back to the top on MMQB

Hope that made sense. And not trying to be a dick.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2715 on: July 30, 2013, 12:53:11 pm »

My instincts told me that Bowl season should be more difficult to pick than late, regular season, but it seemed like several of us did GREAT last Bowl season.  Is that common, or was that just a lucky year?  Do you have a feel for whether you usually tend to do better, worse, or about the same during the Bowls?  Thanks ... and GOOD to see you and the others checking in before the season starts!

My regular season college picks generally hit at a higher percentage than last year.

Bowl season I love.  I never bet a bowl game until day or two before kickoff.  Too much time from end of season till the bowl games start.  Players get in trouble, injured, coaches take new jobs and on and on.  In bowl games I take the team with the better QB, and the coach proven to game plan better. 

Also with bowl games.  Watch out for teams playing in a bowl when they were good enough to be or expecting to be in a better bowl vs a team that is thrilled and consider themselves lucky to be in that game.

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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2716 on: July 30, 2013, 02:24:02 pm »

Anyone have any early leans?

Off the top of my head I'm really liking Bama at -20.5.  Think anything under 21 here is a good bet.  Their talent level is just head and shoulders above VT and I think VT will really have trouble stopping Yeldon, McCarron, and their receiving core.  Breakdown follows: 

Bama Offense:  Obviously McCarron is back and I think he has a big year.  He has improved at slinging the ball, but his best asset may be his ability to manage the game and not commit turnovers.  I expect the turnovers to be low again this season. 

At RB, TJ Yeldon will take Lacy's place and should fill in the shoes just fine.  Yeldon had 175 carries to Lacy's 204 last season so he was already splitting plenty of time with him.  Yeldon also amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and accounted for 12 TDs.  They shouldn't skip a beat in this transition.

The receiving core for Bama will be extremely good this year as they return 95% of their receiving production from last season.  Only starting TE Williams was lost to graduation but he should be replaced with 5* recruit OJ Howard (6-6, 240).  Sophmore  Amari Cooper (consensus freshman all-american last season) returns followed by fellow returning starters Norwood (Sr.) and Jones (Jr.).  Saban has hinted at opening up the passing game more this year being that their receiving core is so strong.

The O-Line of Bama only returns two starters but this has been the strength of Alabam since Saban has been there.  If there is one position they can reload at, it's O-Line.  With the physical ability and talent level of the potential starters, I don't see this being too big of an issue as all 5 will likely end up in the NFL anyhow.   

Bama Defense:  This group did not lose too much from last year.  The biggest question mark will be their DL.  However, they have top prospects that should be itching at getting a chance to prove their worth.  They will also be going against a mediocre VT O-Line and have a solid LB Core to back them up... 

Bama uses a 4LB system that relies on the 2 MLB to help stop the run since there will only be 3 DTs.  They will be returning 4 experienced starters at the LB position.  Mosley and DePriest are on the inside and were the two top tacklers from a year ago.  They should make it very difficult for opponents to run against them.  Hubbart will be on the outside and lead the team in sacks last season.  Jr Xzavier Dickson started six games last year in a reserve role but will be the head guy this year in the other OLB position. 

Safety Clinton-Dix was named on the Jim Thorpe watch list and should be a playmaker/leader in the secondary.


Overall I don't see VT scoring many points in this one.  Could easily see a 38-10 type of score here IMO.  Thoughts?
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2717 on: July 30, 2013, 03:01:08 pm »

Anyone have any early leans?

Off the top of my head I'm really liking Bama at -20.5.  Think anything under 21 here is a good bet.  Their talent level is just head and shoulders above VT and I think VT will really have trouble stopping Yeldon, McCarron, and their receiving core.  Breakdown follows: 

Bama Offense:  Obviously McCarron is back and I think he has a big year.  He has improved at slinging the ball, but his best asset may be his ability to manage the game and not commit turnovers.  I expect the turnovers to be low again this season. 

At RB, TJ Yeldon will take Lacy's place and should fill in the shoes just fine.  Yeldon had 175 carries to Lacy's 204 last season so he was already splitting plenty of time with him.  Yeldon also amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and accounted for 12 TDs.  They shouldn't skip a beat in this transition.

The receiving core for Bama will be extremely good this year as they return 95% of their receiving production from last season.  Only starting TE Williams was lost to graduation but he should be replaced with 5* recruit OJ Howard (6-6, 240).  Sophmore  Amari Cooper (consensus freshman all-american last season) returns followed by fellow returning starters Norwood (Sr.) and Jones (Jr.).  Saban has hinted at opening up the passing game more this year being that their receiving core is so strong.

The O-Line of Bama only returns two starters but this has been the strength of Alabam since Saban has been there.  If there is one position they can reload at, it's O-Line.  With the physical ability and talent level of the potential starters, I don't see this being too big of an issue as all 5 will likely end up in the NFL anyhow.   

Bama Defense:  This group did not lose too much from last year.  The biggest question mark will be their DL.  However, they have top prospects that should be itching at getting a chance to prove their worth.  They will also be going against a mediocre VT O-Line and have a solid LB Core to back them up... 

Bama uses a 4LB system that relies on the 2 MLB to help stop the run since there will only be 3 DTs.  They will be returning 4 experienced starters at the LB position.  Mosley and DePriest are on the inside and were the two top tacklers from a year ago.  They should make it very difficult for opponents to run against them.  Hubbart will be on the outside and lead the team in sacks last season.  Jr Xzavier Dickson started six games last year in a reserve role but will be the head guy this year in the other OLB position. 

Safety Clinton-Dix was named on the Jim Thorpe watch list and should be a playmaker/leader in the secondary.


Overall I don't see VT scoring many points in this one.  Could easily see a 38-10 type of score here IMO.  Thoughts?

Nope.  I refuse to look at a line until a week before the game, and earliest I actually bet college is two nights before. Generally night before and more often morning of.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2718 on: July 30, 2013, 03:04:27 pm »

Anyone have any early leans?

Off the top of my head I'm really liking Bama at -20.5.  Think anything under 21 here is a good bet.  Their talent level is just head and shoulders above VT and I think VT will really have trouble stopping Yeldon, McCarron, and their receiving core.  Breakdown follows: 

Bama Offense:  Obviously McCarron is back and I think he has a big year.  He has improved at slinging the ball, but his best asset may be his ability to manage the game and not commit turnovers.  I expect the turnovers to be low again this season. 

At RB, TJ Yeldon will take Lacy's place and should fill in the shoes just fine.  Yeldon had 175 carries to Lacy's 204 last season so he was already splitting plenty of time with him.  Yeldon also amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and accounted for 12 TDs.  They shouldn't skip a beat in this transition.

The receiving core for Bama will be extremely good this year as they return 95% of their receiving production from last season.  Only starting TE Williams was lost to graduation but he should be replaced with 5* recruit OJ Howard (6-6, 240).  Sophmore  Amari Cooper (consensus freshman all-american last season) returns followed by fellow returning starters Norwood (Sr.) and Jones (Jr.).  Saban has hinted at opening up the passing game more this year being that their receiving core is so strong.

The O-Line of Bama only returns two starters but this has been the strength of Alabam since Saban has been there.  If there is one position they can reload at, it's O-Line.  With the physical ability and talent level of the potential starters, I don't see this being too big of an issue as all 5 will likely end up in the NFL anyhow.   

Bama Defense:  This group did not lose too much from last year.  The biggest question mark will be their DL.  However, they have top prospects that should be itching at getting a chance to prove their worth.  They will also be going against a mediocre VT O-Line and have a solid LB Core to back them up... 

Bama uses a 4LB system that relies on the 2 MLB to help stop the run since there will only be 3 DTs.  They will be returning 4 experienced starters at the LB position.  Mosley and DePriest are on the inside and were the two top tacklers from a year ago.  They should make it very difficult for opponents to run against them.  Hubbart will be on the outside and lead the team in sacks last season.  Jr Xzavier Dickson started six games last year in a reserve role but will be the head guy this year in the other OLB position. 

Safety Clinton-Dix was named on the Jim Thorpe watch list and should be a playmaker/leader in the secondary.


Overall I don't see VT scoring many points in this one.  Could easily see a 38-10 type of score here IMO.  Thoughts?

 Have not looked and like I said wont till closer to time, but 3 touchdowns is a lot to give a quality program.  Also offenses are generally behind the defense early in the season.  May change my tune once I actually break down the game.
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2719 on: July 30, 2013, 03:09:39 pm »

i jus placed this bet this morning on 5dimes an to be real honest i am not so dang comfortable with it so id advice not playing it i am going in one ole angle and that is that vtech always has a pretty cracker good dline and lb groups and if and i say if and ill say it again if the ole crimsontide has one broken bone in there ankle its there ofensive line so i placed only a 50 on this game and took vtech with the points trusting in vtechs all senior an junior defense and a pretty good ole ball coach to keep this a closer game than folk exspect
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2720 on: July 30, 2013, 03:28:56 pm »

i jus placed this bet this morning on 5dimes an to be real honest i am not so dang comfortable with it so id advice not playing it i am going in one ole angle and that is that vtech always has a pretty cracker good dline and lb groups and if and i say if and ill say it again if the ole crimsontide has one broken bone in there ankle its there ofensive line so i placed only a 50 on this game and took vtech with the points trusting in vtechs all senior an junior defense and a pretty good ole ball coach to keep this a closer game than folk exspect

I agree for the most part with your break down, ad if I had to bet the game today I would play VA Tech plus the points.  Great program, always stud talent on d line, and Beemer a super good coach.

Just clarify one the for me.  If I say 5 dimes I mean 5,000.00 dollars.

100.00 equals a dollar

A nickel equals 500.00

A dime equals 1000.00

Are we talking about the same thing my man?
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2721 on: July 30, 2013, 03:33:13 pm »

nosir i think we talking differnt things i never bet over 1000 on a game and i call that a bill a spot is 100 i flat didnt really want to play that bama game so I ovly placed 50 which i hardly never do i figure if you are gonna bet you need to bet with confidince so i hardly ever bet below a spot for this here forum ill use your language cause i think mine mightm be a little ole outdateds
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2722 on: July 30, 2013, 04:04:09 pm »

Have not looked and like I said wont till closer to time, but 3 touchdowns is a lot to give a quality program.  Also offenses are generally behind the defense early in the season.  May change my tune once I actually break down the game.

I have yet to place any bets.  I refuse to do so until two days before as well.  Not gonna place one now, very bad idea.  So many things could happen in camp.  Just giving a breakdown of Bama on this game. 

I don't know as much about VT, would love to see a breakdown of what they have this year
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Monk-N-Dunk

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2723 on: July 30, 2013, 04:14:49 pm »

My best strategy to get the bank rolling is as follows. This only applies to week 1 or 2 of college football. You can do it each week but usually the cupcakes are all at the first/second week.

1. Scour through the Week 1 match-ups and mark the 10-12 crappiest teams you can. If you've never heard of them, even better.

2. Go back to your list and see who they're playing. We are looking for match-ups like this (Wake Forest v. Presbyterian, Connecticut vs. Towson, Morgan State v. Army, etc etc).

3. You won't be able to bet on the majority of the crappy match-ups but you should be able to find 10.

4. Bet the money line and PARLAY all the top teams (in the above example I would take Wake Forst, Conn., Army, etc).

This has worked for me each year.   
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McHogLovin

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2724 on: July 30, 2013, 04:39:20 pm »

I agree for the most part with your break down, ad if I had to bet the game today I would play VA Tech plus the points.  Great program, always stud talent on d line, and Beemer a super good coach.

Just clarify one the for me.  If I say 5 dimes I mean 5,000.00 dollars.

100.00 equals a dollar

A nickel equals 500.00

A dime equals 1000.00

Are we talking about the same thing my man?

He just meant he placed the bet on 5 dimes.  I will be PMing you soon btw
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2725 on: July 30, 2013, 06:11:17 pm »

Where in OK?

I am in Yukon, just outside OKC.  Work in the city, you over this way?  Kind of out on an island here, I go to all the home games but wondered if there was a place hog fans gathered out here. 
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BJOhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2726 on: July 30, 2013, 06:45:49 pm »

you boys have any insite on vandy ole miss or miss state ok state im a little torn in both of these i made a rash decision in one i am starting to regret i usualy make my money in futures in college football predicting each conf champion and bowl games and such i think its easier money if you have the patience and banckroll to bet it
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2727 on: July 30, 2013, 06:46:53 pm »

I am in Yukon, just outside OKC.  Work in the city, you over this way?  Kind of out on an island here, I go to all the home games but wondered if there was a place hog fans gathered out here. 

I'm in Tulsa. I wanted to see where you were in OK, hoping it might be this area, and then invite you to get involved w/ the Tulsa Razorback Club. There's not an official OKC club (official = thru the Razorback Foundation), but I've been contacted before by a group of Hog fans that get together there, only I don't have any contact info for them (I don't think).
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2728 on: July 30, 2013, 07:29:35 pm »

He just meant he placed the bet on 5 dimes.  I will be PMing you soon btw

Honestly I don't know what that means and hae been at this for over 20 years. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2729 on: July 30, 2013, 07:31:01 pm »

you boys have any insite on vandy ole miss or miss state ok state im a little torn in both of these i made a rash decision in one i am starting to regret i usualy make my money in futures in college football predicting each conf champion and bowl games and such i think its easier money if you have the patience and banckroll to bet it

I would say if you have question hedge your bet brother!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2730 on: July 30, 2013, 07:32:50 pm »

My best strategy to get the bank rolling is as follows. This only applies to week 1 or 2 of college football. You can do it each week but usually the cupcakes are all at the first/second week.

1. Scour through the Week 1 match-ups and mark the 10-12 crappiest teams you can. If you've never heard of them, even better.

2. Go back to your list and see who they're playing. We are looking for match-ups like this (Wake Forest v. Presbyterian, Connecticut vs. Towson, Morgan State v. Army, etc etc).

3. You won't be able to bet on the majority of the crappy match-ups but you should be able to find 10.

4. Bet the money line and PARLAY all the top teams (in the above example I would take Wake Forst, Conn., Army, etc).

This has worked for me each year.   

While I understand what you are saying the reward does not outweigh the risk in my opinion.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2731 on: July 30, 2013, 07:34:03 pm »

nosir i think we talking differnt things i never bet over 1000 on a game and i call that a bill a spot is 100 i flat didnt really want to play that bama game so I ovly placed 50 which i hardly never do i figure if you are gonna bet you need to bet with confidince so i hardly ever bet below a spot for this here forum ill use your language cause i think mine mightm be a little ole outdateds

Gotcha makes sense now. Sorry about that.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2732 on: July 30, 2013, 07:36:43 pm »

He just meant he placed the bet on 5 dimes.  I will be PMing you soon btw

The site I got it. Sorry never played there. That's why I was seriously confused.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2733 on: July 30, 2013, 09:57:04 pm »

5 dimes is good but i plan on trying to go local this year.  jeff if you have any suggestions PM me, Im in the Dallas area
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2734 on: July 31, 2013, 05:13:48 am »

It's that time of year.  I copied and pasted a post from the end of last year below.

Just in case we have new people to the thread that don't read all 55 pages and I hope it can help someone if they are just starting out.

Okay guys I had a dismal year.  I made pretty good money, but my win percentage was considerably lower than usual.  I was horrible the first 5 or so weeks of the season.  The only reason I made a profit is because of management and a bankroll.


If you are new or a first year player.  Decide what you are going to play with now.  If you won this year and you are new to it.  Take this years bankroll and add half your winnings of this season to it.  Do not touch it.

Example I started with a bankroll this year I have added to each season.  I am immediately taking 50 units of winnings and adding to bankroll next season.  I will not touch that until football starts.  It is in its own account.  The rest of the winnings I will buy the wife something nice or take a trip.  You grow that starting bankroll every year when you can.

Take your bankroll and budget for all season or be prepared to quit early.  If I had not had major cushion I would have been done by week 6.  I did however have enough ready that I learned more and more about each team each week. This allowed me to take more info and bet more units. 

I am far from perfect, but this is a prime example of knowing your money, managing it, and striking when the iron is hot.   Lowest win percentage I have had in years, but still made a profit of over 10k.  All money management and unit strategy. 

Always keep your bet money aside from salary, bills and such.  If you win one year only and you had a bankroll you should never ne behind again.  If year one you were winging it.  Set an amount for next year and stick to it.  Bet accordingly.  Never bet more than half your bankroll on any one game

Never bet a team you care about either way unless its a minimal bet just to have something to play.


Please try and avoid teasers.  In the long run they do not pay off enough in odds to cover the juice. Vegas is not stupid.  They know about teasers and want you to bet them.  Parlays are bad business as well.  I went right at 48% on three team parlays this past season.  That helped me a lot, but that number is high for me.

Get a huge dry erase board.  Start on Monday with your 20 best picks, On Monday modify and so forth.  any game you change your mind on one time before kickoff simply take it off your board. If you stick and your feeling grows add units to that game.

Do not start a season willy nillie and end up having tp chase.  Set your bankroll and stick with it.  Bet accordingly.  If you are not sure just dont bet it. Let it go.

I know I didn't follow my own rules all year, but thats me,  I can lose every week for two years and still be ahead.  Not meaning to sound arrogant, but it's true.  That is the reason I can be down 50 units the first 5 weeks and not bat an eye when I raise my bet. 

Be smart be cautious, and you CAN MAKE MONEY EVERY YEAR.  Good luck to all,


Good advice as usual, my friend. Good luck to you.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2735 on: July 31, 2013, 05:39:54 am »

I got lazy in updating my record toward the end. Once basketball came around, I pretty much disappeared. All in all, I hit near 55% which isn't horrible in the investing world. I ended up on the plus side. I played way too many games last year as I've said in other spots.

Goals :
hit 60%
Update my record from start to finish
Play no more than 7 games on the weekend
Continue to own Thursday Nights
Make 25% more money than last year

What goals do you guys have going into the season?

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2736 on: July 31, 2013, 05:50:06 am »

Good advice as usual, my friend. Good luck to you.

You too my man!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2737 on: July 31, 2013, 06:19:24 am »

As far as bama-vt . My book hasn't opened up a total but Vegas has it at 49. I see a 27-10 type of game. Not confident enough to take bama giving up 21...but I like the under for a couple of reasons.

1. Bama is replacing linemen on both sides of the ball.  They will be all Americans, but they will have a learning curve. They will score, but can the offense be asked to be in midseason form and be 21 points better than a talented va tech squad?

2. Va tech has a terrible QB. Facing a bama defense is not a good way to start the season.  Which leads me to....

3. Beamer likes to play hard nosed defense and likes ball control. He is old school. He will run more often than not and try to shorten the game. He wants to allow Thomas to not make mistakes, although I think bama will force him to.

I haven't really ran the numbers, but 49 looks like a solid under.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2738 on: July 31, 2013, 07:49:57 am »

you boys have any insite on vandy ole miss or miss state ok state im a little torn in both of these i made a rash decision in one i am starting to regret i usualy make my money in futures in college football predicting each conf champion and bowl games and such i think its easier money if you have the patience and banckroll to bet it

I absolutely love OK St. -14
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2739 on: July 31, 2013, 08:17:58 am »

I downloaded an app in the spring that keeps me honest, no fudging on whether or not I hit 51% or 41%. It also allows for tracking multiple users and their results...so I've got my eye on some of you this upcoming season  ;)
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2740 on: July 31, 2013, 08:42:39 am »

I downloaded an app in the spring that keeps me honest, no fudging on whether or not I hit 51% or 41%. It also allows for tracking multiple users and their results...so I've got my eye on some of you this upcoming season  ;)

using the betbud app?
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2741 on: July 31, 2013, 08:43:40 am »

I absolutely love OK St. -14

Agreed, though I wouldn't go over 14.  I think it's at -13.5 right now, hoping that number doesn't jump up, otherwise I'll likely take it
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2742 on: July 31, 2013, 09:09:25 am »

using the betbud app?

Yes, I've really liked its tracking and stat-breakdowns thus far.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2743 on: July 31, 2013, 09:44:08 am »

I downloaded an app in the spring that keeps me honest, no fudging on whether or not I hit 51% or 41%. It also allows for tracking multiple users and their results...so I've got my eye on some of you this upcoming season  ;)


Sweet!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2744 on: July 31, 2013, 02:11:34 pm »

Yes, I've really liked its tracking and stat-breakdowns thus far.
Yes, I've really liked its tracking and stat-breakdowns thus far.

What is this app? I'd like to dl it
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2745 on: July 31, 2013, 02:13:29 pm »

the app is called betbud - costs like $3.  Well worth it IMO
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2746 on: July 31, 2013, 02:26:48 pm »

What is this app? I'd like to dl it

Me also...


Since I'm so bored at work during the week, I'm going to put together a spreadsheet of all the pics in this thread. It's going to take some time, but it will be a fun way to spend the next 3 or 4 weeks. Should have at least the beginning of a spreadsheet in a few days.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2747 on: July 31, 2013, 02:41:49 pm »

Me also...


Since I'm so bored at work during the week, I'm going to put together a spreadsheet of all the pics in this thread. It's going to take some time, but it will be a fun way to spend the next 3 or 4 weeks. Should have at least the beginning of a spreadsheet in a few days.

Hell yes
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2748 on: July 31, 2013, 03:12:13 pm »

The app can sort your picks by NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, NHL, etc.

It can filter by a particular date...say you want to see your results for a particular period of time, just input those dates.

You could track my picks accurately, if you wanted to -- BUT DON'T DUE TO MY >40% RECORD, ha. But you could take the time to input the picks I put on here and track my results, down to the sport or particular period of time, if desired.

The only negative is taking the time to input your picks, which takes very little time frankly, but could be a drawback for some.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2749 on: July 31, 2013, 03:25:15 pm »

Reading up on that app....sounds pretty great. I spend a log of time on my phone checking espn.com for scores. This seems to take that away and send alert letting me know the current line score and if I'm winning or losing. I just bought it so i may play a few baseball games to get the hang of it.
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