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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340392 times)

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2250 on: January 08, 2013, 11:30:17 am »

Edited for your pleasure...

Ha, I'm the one being the arse now.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2251 on: January 08, 2013, 11:32:36 am »

'

That's why you need to punk the mythical jinx and post on here! Come on, help a brother get paid, HF.

I'll do it occasionally.  I'm just too superstitious to do it all the time.  I think me and Iwastherein1969 tried to warn people before the Arkansas/Ole Miss game a couple of years ago.

I'll try to post more warnings.  :)
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2252 on: January 08, 2013, 11:34:26 am »

And I'm not saying I'm right all the time.  Sometimes, though, things are exactly as I think.  This was one of those times.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2253 on: January 08, 2013, 11:53:01 am »

No I didn't post all of my picks but I finished the CFB season 38-35. Not great, but I'll take it considering it was my first season to bet more than 10 games (most of which were normally the hogs). I'm taking next season on with excitement and plan on doing well.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2254 on: January 08, 2013, 12:00:06 pm »

No I didn't post all of my picks but I finished the CFB season 38-35. Not great, but I'll take it considering it was my first season to bet more than 10 games (most of which were normally the hogs). I'm taking next season on with excitement and plan on doing well.

Not bad.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2255 on: January 08, 2013, 04:49:01 pm »

After I put my kiddo to bed tonight I am goint to try and sit down and do my year end wrap with stats.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2256 on: January 08, 2013, 10:14:36 pm »

Gonna try and break this down by week.  Think there was a week or maybe two that I really didn't play college.

Week 1                                                   

College 5-6 / -2 units on the day

Pro 1-4 / -13 units

Week 2
College 4-4 / -12 units

Pro 0-2 / -20 units

Week 3
College 2-2 / +4 units

Pro 2-3 / -11 units

Week 4
College 3-2 / +4 units

Pro 4-3 / + 6 units

Week 5
College 2-2 / +3 units

Pro 1-1 / 0 units

Week 6
College 1-3-1 / -10 units

Pro 0-1 / -4 units

Week 7
College 5-2 / +18 units

Pro 3-0-1 / +16 units

Week 8
College 3-4-1 / -1 unit

Pro 4-1 / +13 units

Week 9
College 4-2 / +11 units

Pro 2-4 / -2 units

Week 10
College 2-2-1 / -2 units

Pro 3-2 / 0 units

Week 11
College 3-3 / - 3 units

Pro 4-4-1 / -2 units

Week 12
College 6-2-1 / + 11 units

Pro 4-4 / +3 units

Week 13
Pro 5-0-1 / +14 units

Week 14
Pro 5-1 / + 19 units

Week 15
Pro 1-2 / -12 units

Week 16
Pro 2-3 / -5 units

College season before bowl games 40-34-4 /  +21 units
Pro Season before playoffs 41-35-3 / + 7 units

All those numbers should be fairly close.  I hit enough parlays to cover the juice on losses and come out with a bit higher profit.  The first 5 to 6 weeks I was horrible.  Actually thought I was going to post my first losing year in almost 20 years.

College bowl games

13-6-1 / + 78 units

NFL playoffs thus far I am a horrible 1-5 if memory serves for -20 units

around 86 units to the good as a whole for this season.  Not complaining at all, but kicking myself for my poor start and for a couple games here and there I know better than to have played.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2257 on: January 09, 2013, 07:04:23 am »

Nice documentation, Jeff.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2258 on: January 09, 2013, 03:36:39 pm »

What McKdaddy said! 

Your system and depth of experience is impressive!  I  know that my record improved after the first few weeks, but it would be good to be able to quantify that instead of just going by gut and vague memories.  I guess that's something to add to my to-do list for next season. 

I lost track of my overall W/L record.  My best guess is that I was a little over 50% in a strict W/L sense ATS, but taking into account weighting and looking at the bottom line, I am pleased with the season.  I started with 40 units and grew that to 90 units as of today.  I won't be quitting my day job any time soon, but I'm happy with a 125% increase over about 4 months (and having fun while doing it).  I closed strong after discovering the joys of spreadsheets, so I'm excited about next season to see if I can continue and improve on that trend. 

OK, I have a question for you veterans.  I have very limited experience with making plays during the bowl season.  This year it sounds like a LOT of people had VERY good records during the bowl games, myself included.  Does that happen often, or was this just a lucky year?  My instincts made me think that bowl games would be harder to pick because of the added variables of things like coaching changes, motivation, and long lay offs.  That didn't seem to be the case this bowl season.

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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2259 on: January 09, 2013, 03:56:05 pm »

I don't know how to track all my bets but I do know I started a few weeks into the season with a zero balance and now i have 1,051 in my account. Never cashed out or settled up with the bookie and probably won't til after super bowl. I've been lingering between 600-1000 the past month. Betting hoops has kept me from continuing to get a bigger bankroll as i do not win much.

my units are usually 20-25 for college and 30-50 for NFL (fewer games played).

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2260 on: January 09, 2013, 04:23:25 pm »

I track my bets at work on a few sheets of paper. I write down the matchup, the spread I got, and then the result. What I haven't done -- but will start doing -- is separating college and pro bets/results. As it is now I'd have to look thru my results week-by-week to separate my results on the two. Instead I should separate them out from the time the bet is placed instead of having all of a particular week's bets lumped together.

As a non-serious bettor (I don't do this for income, like some, as I stink at betting), I don't weight my picks. Nor have I applied the weightings of others when copying their picks. Simply, I keep up w/ the wins and losses of my picks and not how many units up or down I am because every bet I make is 1 unit. Betting is something fun I do, nothing else. It is done w/ a small bankroll that can be replenished if lost.

Drumroll please.....

80-75, for my first ever winning season in my 4-5 year betting history. Win % of 51.6 (dang juice, ha).

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2261 on: January 09, 2013, 04:25:35 pm »

Of course, this just means I'll experience some mean reversion next season by hitting 42%.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2262 on: January 09, 2013, 04:34:03 pm »

congrats to all the guys who wound up in the green.  this was my first year to partake in betting and it didnt go too well  >:(  But I learned some very important lessons that I can build on for next year.  I actually got off to a decent start but put way too much of my bankroll on one game (us vs auburn) without doing my homework on auburn.  That one snakebit me and put a big damper on the amount of action i could take the rest of the season. 

Also learned some good stuff from ya'll about when to place bets (never take futures at the beginning of the season) and when to let them go (if the spread runs away from ya, you just gotta let it go sometimes). 

Really appreciate ya'lls help and advice and I can't wait for next year!

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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2263 on: January 09, 2013, 04:56:17 pm »

I actually got off to a decent start but put way too much of my bankroll on one game (us vs auburn) without doing my homework on auburn.  That one snakebit me and put a big damper on the amount of action i could take the rest of the season.

I feel your pain.  That game was one of my largest plays of the season and took most of the rest of the season to overcome. 
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2264 on: January 09, 2013, 05:03:57 pm »

Exactly. My motto on size of bets is that i don't bet on one game what I wouldn't bet on a single hand of blackjack. I let my winning hands ride usually twice before pulling any money off the table. I've done this as of late for college basketball and that is why I am pretty much stalemating my bankroll at the time :)
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Hooch

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2265 on: January 09, 2013, 07:11:13 pm »

I am making a small play on the Hogs tonight.  I usually don't bet on them but they are clearly the better team, think they will win tonight. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2266 on: January 09, 2013, 07:46:18 pm »

In about an hour after I put the kiddo to bed I am going to try and answer a few questions, and offer a bit of advice (specifically for the first year winners) even though it was not asked for.  It should give everyone a leg up on next football season should they want it.  If not no worries.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2267 on: January 09, 2013, 07:57:51 pm »

In about an hour after I put the kiddo to bed I am going to try and answer a few questions, and offer a bit of advice (specifically for the first year winners) even though it was not asked for.  It should give everyone a leg up on next football season should they want it.  If not no worries.

nothing for the first year losers? haha the first year losers (like myself) need it the most
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2268 on: January 09, 2013, 08:32:26 pm »

nothing for the first year losers? haha the first year losers (like myself) need it the most


Lmao it certainly applies to you sir.  You are simply one of the few people I have ever known admit to a losing year. My advice will probably help you more than the winners. A person that turns a profit year one generally thinks they have it figured out an go way crazy backward year two.  People that lost money year one but enjoyed it and want to do better are usually more receptive.

Sorry about that certainly did not mean to exclude you. My next post will be up within the hour.  I hope you read it, and feel free to ask any questions I didn't answer.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2269 on: January 09, 2013, 10:34:25 pm »

Okay guys I had a dismal year.  I made pretty good money, but my win percentage was considerably lower than usual.  I was horrible the first 5 or so weeks of the season.  The only reason I made a profit is because of management and a bankroll.


If you are new or a first year player.  Decide what you are going to play with now.  If you won this year and you are new to it.  Take this years bankroll and add half your winnings of this season to it.  Do not touch it.

Example I started with a bankroll this year I have added to each season.  I am immediately taking 50 units of winnings and adding to bankroll next season.  I will not touch that until football starts.  It is in its own account.  The rest of the winnings I will buy the wife something nice or take a trip.  You grow that starting bankroll every year when you can.

Take your bankroll and budget for all season or be prepared to quit early.  If I had not had major cushion I would have been done by week 6.  I did however have enough ready that I learned more and more about each team each week. This allowed me to take more info and bet more units. 

I am far from perfect, but this is a prime example of knowing your money, managing it, and striking when the iron is hot.   Lowest win percentage I have had in years, but still made a profit of over 10k.  All money management and unit strategy. 

Always keep your bet money aside from salary, bills and such.  If you win one year only and you had a bankroll you should never ne behind again.  If year one you were winging it.  Set an amount for next year and stick to it.  Bet accordingly.  Never bet more than half your bankroll on any one game

Never bet a team you care about either way unless its a minimal bet just to have something to play.


Please try and avoid teasers.  In the long run they do not pay off enough in odds to cover the juice. Vegas is not stupid.  They know about teasers and want you to bet them.  Parlays are bad business as well.  I went right at 48% on three team parlays this past season.  That helped me a lot, but that number is high for me.

Get a huge dry erase board.  Start on Monday with your 20 best picks, On Monday modify and so forth.  any game you change your mind on one time before kickoff simply take it off your board. If you stick and your feeling grows add units to that game.

Do not start a season willy nillie and end up having tp chase.  Set your bankroll and stick with it.  Bet accordingly.  If you are not sure just dont bet it. Let it go.

I know I didn't follow my own rules all year, but thats me,  I can lose every week for two years and still be ahead.  Not meaning to sound arrogant, but it's true.  That is the reason I can be down 50 units the first 5 weeks and not bat an eye when I raise my bet. 

Be smart be cautious, and you CAN MAKE MONEY EVERY YEAR.  Good luck to all, 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2270 on: January 09, 2013, 10:50:08 pm »

What McKdaddy said! 

Your system and depth of experience is impressive!  I  know that my record improved after the first few weeks, but it would be good to be able to quantify that instead of just going by gut and vague memories.  I guess that's something to add to my to-do list for next season. 

I lost track of my overall W/L record.  My best guess is that I was a little over 50% in a strict W/L sense ATS, but taking into account weighting and looking at the bottom line, I am pleased with the season.  I started with 40 units and grew that to 90 units as of today.  I won't be quitting my day job any time soon, but I'm happy with a 125% increase over about 4 months (and having fun while doing it).  I closed strong after discovering the joys of spreadsheets, so I'm excited about next season to see if I can continue and improve on that trend. 

OK, I have a question for you veterans.  I have very limited experience with making plays during the bowl season.  This year it sounds like a LOT of people had VERY good records during the bowl games, myself included.  Does that happen often, or was this just a lucky year?  My instincts made me think that bowl games would be harder to pick because of the added variables of things like coaching changes, motivation, and long lay offs.  That didn't seem to be the case this bowl season.



You I think learned more than most.  You took advice and read, and researched.  If you set aside an amount each year to start with I truly believe you will make money each year.

Bowl games.  I destroyed it this year,but.  I was in several pools where you had to pick all the games before any started.  I ended up betting many games the opposite way I picked before the season started.  Never make a large bowl bet sooner than 4 hours before kickoff.  I mean ever.  Never decide your bowl bet weeks before the game.

As I mentioned before,  Always bet your bowl games starting with what team has the best QB ( had i listened to my own rules I would have lost only 3 bowl games rather than 6) it generally pans out.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2271 on: January 10, 2013, 02:31:04 am »

Well, the 2nd year of this thread basically in the books. I should have my record updated and available to post in a day or 2.

I would like to get a lot more serious about research before next year, and there seems to be a good enough hub of people here that are interested in getting an edge, if possible, and making some money. I'm gonna do my best to follow offseason more than I ever have before, so I can try and get a read on some of the teams earlier in the season next year.

I really enjoy this thread and it's what seems to be the only friendly place on this board sometimes. I appreciate everyone's input and picks, no matter whether they win or lose. I have learned both years we've done this, and hope to pick up many more tips and lessons over the coming years.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2272 on: January 10, 2013, 06:00:55 am »


You are simply one of the few people I have ever known admit to a losing year.

Am I in good company?
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2273 on: January 10, 2013, 09:08:51 am »

Okay guys I had a dismal year.  I made pretty good money, but my win percentage was considerably lower than usual.  I was horrible the first 5 or so weeks of the season.  The only reason I made a profit is because of management and a bankroll.


If you are new or a first year player.  Decide what you are going to play with now.  If you won this year and you are new to it.  Take this years bankroll and add half your winnings of this season to it.  Do not touch it.

Example I started with a bankroll this year I have added to each season.  I am immediately taking 50 units of winnings and adding to bankroll next season.  I will not touch that until football starts.  It is in its own account.  The rest of the winnings I will buy the wife something nice or take a trip.  You grow that starting bankroll every year when you can.

Take your bankroll and budget for all season or be prepared to quit early.  If I had not had major cushion I would have been done by week 6.  I did however have enough ready that I learned more and more about each team each week. This allowed me to take more info and bet more units. 

I am far from perfect, but this is a prime example of knowing your money, managing it, and striking when the iron is hot.   Lowest win percentage I have had in years, but still made a profit of over 10k.  All money management and unit strategy. 

Always keep your bet money aside from salary, bills and such.  If you win one year only and you had a bankroll you should never ne behind again.  If year one you were winging it.  Set an amount for next year and stick to it.  Bet accordingly.  Never bet more than half your bankroll on any one game

Never bet a team you care about either way unless its a minimal bet just to have something to play.


Please try and avoid teasers.  In the long run they do not pay off enough in odds to cover the juice. Vegas is not stupid.  They know about teasers and want you to bet them.  Parlays are bad business as well.  I went right at 48% on three team parlays this past season.  That helped me a lot, but that number is high for me.

Get a huge dry erase board.  Start on Monday with your 20 best picks, On Monday modify and so forth.  any game you change your mind on one time before kickoff simply take it off your board. If you stick and your feeling grows add units to that game.

Do not start a season willy nillie and end up having tp chase.  Set your bankroll and stick with it.  Bet accordingly.  If you are not sure just dont bet it. Let it go.

I know I didn't follow my own rules all year, but thats me,  I can lose every week for two years and still be ahead.  Not meaning to sound arrogant, but it's true.  That is the reason I can be down 50 units the first 5 weeks and not bat an eye when I raise my bet. 

Be smart be cautious, and you CAN MAKE MONEY EVERY YEAR.  Good luck to all,

Really great advice Jeff, very much appreciated!  Didn't know about the bowl games and taking the best QB, great tip! 

And Jeff, I have no problem admitting that I ended up in the red this year. If anything I want ya'll to know so that if I post a pick, you can take caution when looking into it.  My job is to get better with my research and strategy and once that happens hopefully it will begin to reflect in my picks and they will start to carry some weight around here.  That's on me though. 

I have signed up for ESPN insider and will post any information I get about happenings this off-season.  I, like Will, would like to get a lot more serious about research before next season because that is one of the areas I greatly lacked in.  One of the things I struggled with at the beginning of the year is who lost what from the previous season and what will the replacement be, especially in the O and D line.  I am a strong believer that the O and D line more often than not will win the game for your team, but you don't hear nearly as much on those guys departing as you do the WR's, QB's, RB's, etc.  Think it would be great to be able to start this thread a few weeks early next year and really try to get a grasp of who lost what and how it will effect them going into the upcoming season.   

All in all, I learned much more than I ever thought I would this year, but also had much more fun than I ever thought I'd have and this thread is part of the reason why.  Really looking forward to next season.  Like I said, if i see anything on ESPN or ESPN insider I'll be sure to update ya'll!
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2274 on: January 10, 2013, 09:13:19 am »


And Jeff, I have no problem admitting that I ended up in the red this year. If anything I want ya'll to know so that if I post a pick, you can take caution when looking into it. 


Ha/ha, same here.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2275 on: January 10, 2013, 10:22:24 am »

Will, THANKS and good job working with the powers that be to allow us to have "our" thread!  It is HANDS DOWN my favorite go-to place for finding nuggets of wisdom as I try to develop a system/style that will increase my chances of winning more consistently. 

And Jeff, THANKS for being one of the consistent sources of those nuggets of wisdom and for sharing your picks to help bail us out as we try to develop systems/styles that work for us.  Your caution about the dangers of winning in your first year was a surprisingly accurate description of how I got to where I am at the end of year 3.  In year 1, I tripled a small bankroll.  In year 2, I lost my entire bankroll in the middle of the season through poor bankroll management and sat out the rest of the year (a loss on a play that was too large a percentage of my bankroll, followed by a second loss on a large play as I tried to recoup my loss too quickly).  In year 3, I missed on a large play early in the year but had learned a couple of lessons from year 2: the loss was a smaller percentage of my bankroll, and I didn't try to make up for that loss all at once.  I hope your prediction of future success is as accurate as your description of how I got to year 3.

Turning to a few thoughts for next season:

(1) I plan to stick mainly with college football and limit my NFL plays to somewhere around the $5 range.  The NFL lines just seem to be MUCH more tight than the college lines.  My best guess is that a lot of that might be the difference between setting lines for around 16 games per week played by men in the NFL vs. setting lines for almost 60 games per week played by 18-20-year-old college kids. 

(2) I plan on sticking with small plays the first few weeks to get a feel for how the teams are performing and to develop a sample size that is large enough to begin to approach being "statistically significant" in a very loose sense.  I don't want to make a mistake similar to flipping a coin 4 times and thinking that I've spotted a trend that will hit 75% of the time just because it came up heads on 3 out of 4 flips.

(3) I suspect that the time to make hay will be from around week 7 or 8 through around week 13 (the weekend just before championship weekend) and possibly during bowl season.  I want time to build up a decent sample size to get a feel for the season, but I also want to use that information during the window in which there are more mismatches from which to choose.  There will probably be fewer mismatches, and they will probably be more difficult to spot during championship weekend.

(4) I'll heed Jeff's warning (kind of) and do it cautiously, but if I can establish a decent W/L record ATS, I will probably play around with trying to develop a method to incorporate parlays as a small part of the mix.  Small parlays were very good to me at the end of this season.  Also, from my occasional trips to Oaklawn, the first time that I started winning more often than losing was when I added parlays to the mix at the race track.

(5)  I plan to stick almost exclusively with playing the spread and will probably only play over/under a few times following the leads of you guys.  When I was in the early stages of learning to smoke ribs, I smoked a LOT of ribs until I found and refined a routine that I liked.  Then, I added brisket to the mix and started trying to learn and refine a routine for brisket.  I'll probably continue to focus on my spread strategies, until I get a result that I like.  Then I'll probably start trying to figure out the over/under.  Actually, the ribs/brisket analogy probably works better for college vs. NFL.  Brisket is much less forgiving than ribs and is much easier to screw up.

Thanks again to all for making this thread a fun and profitable place to learn!
« Last Edit: January 10, 2013, 11:29:59 am by DadVader1 »
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azhog10

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2276 on: January 10, 2013, 10:47:45 am »

Looking for a three team parley today. Right now I am thinking about Mich State, UALR, and Jacksonville St.

May also play two ML with the Miami Heat and Arizona St.

Thoughts?
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2277 on: January 10, 2013, 11:05:55 am »

Dadvader, really looking forward to seeing how your spreadsheet does next year.  Sounds like it has great potential!  appreciate the thoughts as well.

This thread is definitely the best thread on hogville, bar none.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2278 on: January 10, 2013, 11:30:27 am »

Anybody into MMA?  I've made some nice pocket money this past year and hoping 2013 is no different.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2279 on: January 10, 2013, 11:35:08 am »

I love me some UFC, but the one time I tried to pick MMA fights, my record may have been worse than my NFL plays. 
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2280 on: January 10, 2013, 11:55:17 am »

Anybody into MMA?  I've made some nice pocket money this past year and hoping 2013 is no different.

I enjoy watching it if it's on Fox, but don't know nearly enough about it to make informed bets
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2281 on: January 10, 2013, 01:44:11 pm »

for those playing the NFL games this weekend, here is an ESPN insider article that comes out every week called Duley's take, breaks down each matchup. I will post each game seperately, enjoy!
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2282 on: January 10, 2013, 01:45:43 pm »

 Ravens @ Broncos

Spread: Broncos minus-9.5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Broncos

Public perception: The percentage of people picking the Broncos would be higher if we were checking this earlier in the week when the line was Broncos minus-8.5. The public has pushed this line to minus-9.5 and there are some books that have already gone to minus-10 as of this writing. The Broncos are now the Super Bowl favorite (5-2 at the LVH SuperBook here in Vegas). They are clearly the most public team nowadays, and those backers were rewarded this year as the Broncos were 10-5-1 against the spread. The Ravens are the only team in the playoffs with a losing ATS record (only 7-9-1 despite covering against the Colts last week) and their bandwagon isn't nearly as full as it once was.

Wiseguys' view: There was a time when the play in this round was to bet the home favorites (as they often rolled), but wiseguys aren't afraid to take the dogs in these games anymore. In the 23 years under the current NFL playoff format, the AFC's No. 1 seed is only 9-13-1 ATS in the divisional round despite having home-field advantage and an extra week of rest. The Broncos are trying to fight that rust. As great as Peyton Manning is, his playoff record is subpar at 9-10 ATS (and it's only that good thanks to his 4-0 mark in his 2006-07 Super Bowl title run).

Tuley's Take: The Broncos were 3-1 ATS this season as double-digit favorites, but those were against the Chiefs (the ATS loss), Raiders, Browns and Chiefs again. The Ravens are much better than those teams and more likely to cover this big number. Granted, the Broncos blew out the Ravens 34-17 four weeks ago, but that was the week after the Ravens switched offensive coordinators and Baltimore has several starters back that missed that game. The Ravens also were looking to cut a 10-0 deficit to 10-7 or at worst 10-3 right before halftime when a pick-six made it 17-0 Denver, or else it could have been a much different game. The pick: Ravens (at plus-10 or higher, which is looking more and more likely).
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2283 on: January 10, 2013, 01:47:46 pm »

 Packers @ 49ers

Spread: 49ers minus-3
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Packers

Public perception: The Packers are still the more popular team, so it's no surprise they're being backed even as the underdog despite the fact the 49ers won the season opener 30-22 in Green Bay.

Wiseguys' view: Sharp bettors also jumped on the Packers plus-3 as they're playing their best football of the year at the right time. Green Bay, including that opening loss, started 2-3 but has gone 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS since their loss at Indianapolis in Week 5. The 49ers have gone 4-3 ATS since Colin Kaepernick replaced Alex Smith as the starting quarterback, but they've failed to cover two straight and three of their past five (and the Rams game that Kaepernick single-handedly gave away with an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone and another lateral that turned into a Rams touchdown has the wiseguys doubting if he's ready for playoff pressure).

Tuley's Take: I'm torn on this game as I'd love to take the Packers in a rare underdog role (though they were only 1-1 this year, beating the Texans but losing to the Giants), but this number is short and I'm afraid of what the 49ers' running game might do against the Packers' run defense. The pick: Pass (lean: Packers at plus-3, though prefer under 45).
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2284 on: January 10, 2013, 01:49:24 pm »

 Seahawks @ Falcons

Spread: Falcons minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Falcons

Public perception: This is probably the most debated line of the week, and I offer the public consensus number as proof. The Falcons are the No. 1 seed in the NFC but are favored at home by less than a field goal against the No. 5-seeded Seahawks. While the Broncos could put up an argument with 11 straight wins, the Seahawks were the hottest team heading into the NFL playoffs and were a 3-point road favorite at Washington last weekend (and they covered that spread, too).

Wiseguys' view: Even when the Falcons were undefeated, wiseguys weren't giving them too much respect because they weren't dominant like other recent teams that flirted with perfection (Colts, Patriots, Saints). You'll hear a lot about Matt Ryan's home record and the fact they were 7-1 this year with the only loss coming in a meaningless game in Week 17, but they were a mediocre 4-4 ATS at home with non-covers against the Panthers, Raiders and Cardinals.

Tuley's Take: While I was on the Seahawks' bandwagon earlier than most (backing them against the Packers, Patriots and the first meeting against the 49ers) when it was just me and a few grungy coffee drinkers, I feel they've reached the point of being overrated. In the same way, while I've been against the Falcons most of the year (including those ATS losses to the Panthers, Raiders, and Cards), I feel they're underrated and should be favored by more than a field goal at home, because they've at least shown the tendency to come through when it counts. The pick: Falcons.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2285 on: January 10, 2013, 01:50:39 pm »

 Texans @ Patriots

Spread: Patriots minus-9.5
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Patriots

Public perception: This game probably will make or break the weekend for the sports books here in Vegas. Most every live parlay from the public will be tied to the Patriots, so if any other favorites cover the earlier games, the books will face a lot of liability with a Pats cover. With the way the Texans limped into the playoffs (2-3 SU and ATS, including the 42-14 loss in their previous trip to New England), they're not likely to get much public support against the popular Pats.

Wiseguys' view: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are headed to the Hall of Fame and a lot of people talk about how great they are with extra time to prepare, but handicapper Marc Lawrence points out the Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS with rest in the playoffs, 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their past six playoff games and 1-7 ATS in their past eight as playoff favorites. The sharps will be looking to take the plus-10 when it pops up.

Tuley's Take: The Texans' franchise doesn't have a marquee playoff win to its name, so it's a little touchy pulling the trigger against the established Patriots, but those stats show the Pats aren't infallible. The Texans have the better defense, but they have to keep it off the field as much as possible. Arian Foster will be the key. The Patriots allow only 102 rushing yards per game but a lot of that is because of teams getting behind and feeling they need to pass to keep up with them. The other key is J.J. Watt & Co. need to pressure Brady, unlike the first meeting. The pick: Texans (and waiting for plus-10, though certainly think they keep it within a touchdown if not the outright win).
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2286 on: January 10, 2013, 01:54:10 pm »

don't like his Falcons pick.  Think the seahawsk are hot right now and their corners (two of the best in the league) will help limit White and Jones.  The rest of Seattle's D is stout too and their O should matchup favorably against the Falcons. 

Also disagree with his Patriots vs Texans call.  Actually I don't disagree, I'd just pass on it.  Texans barely beat an average Bengals team @ home.  I watched the game and was not impressed.  If I had a lean, it would be Patriots but he brings up some interesting points in it being the last game and Vegas having a lot of liability if people hit on their first game/s of a parlay.  Public is going with the Pats and I generally do not like betting with the public

Agree with the pass on the Packers game and with his pick of the Ravens (high in Denver is supposed to be 19).
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2287 on: January 10, 2013, 02:04:00 pm »

I appreciate you sharing the information, but you probably shouldn't do quite that much copy and pasting from a pay site.  I suspect that is frowned upon by the moderators (and by the pay site).  A short version in your own words with more moderate use of copy and pasting would probably keep the powers that be happy while still being helpful to the rest of us.  Thanks again! 
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2288 on: January 10, 2013, 02:05:23 pm »

I appreciate you sharing the information, but you probably shouldn't do quite that much copy and pasting from a pay site.  I suspect that is frowned upon by the moderators (and by the pay site).  A short version in your own words with more moderate use of copy and pasting would probably keep the powers that be happy while still being helpful to the rest of us.  Thanks again!

good point, sorry about that!  Mods delete if necessary.  Won't happen again.  Thanks for bringing that up Vader, didnt even think about it
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2289 on: January 10, 2013, 02:07:46 pm »

I like the Packers, Patriots, and Falcons.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2290 on: January 10, 2013, 05:30:28 pm »

I finally finished my breakdown:

Overall: 63-49-1  56%
Bowl Games: 18-6  75%
1* picks: 41-34  55%
2* picks: 12-12-1 48%
3* picks: 8-3  73%
5* picks: 2-0 100%

My 2 year running record:
Overall: 110-77-2  58%
1* picks: 63-46-1  57%
2* picks: 30-18-2  60%
3* picks: 13-7  65%
5* picks: 3-0 100%

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2291 on: January 10, 2013, 06:05:26 pm »

I finally finished my breakdown:

Overall: 63-49-1  56%
Bowl Games: 18-6  75%
1* picks: 41-34  55%
2* picks: 12-12-1 48%
3* picks: 8-3  73%
5* picks: 2-0 100%

My 2 year running record:
Overall: 110-77-2  58%
1* picks: 63-46-1  57%
2* picks: 30-18-2  60%
3* picks: 13-7  65%
5* picks: 3-0 100%


I like the breakdown of the weightings.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2292 on: January 12, 2013, 06:36:47 am »

Ha/ha, same here.


Lol oh I know that my man.  I'm thinking you will have a nice run this year though.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2293 on: January 12, 2013, 06:41:46 am »

Well starting a new season for me.

Not loving all these playoff games, but gonna do a little something.

Pats -9 / 2 units
Green Bay +3.5 / 4 units
Baltimore +9.5 / 2 units
Seattle + 3.5 / 3 units

4 teamer same way for one unit.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2294 on: January 12, 2013, 02:16:03 pm »

Well starting a new season for me.

Not loving all these playoff games, but gonna do a little something.

Pats -9 / 2 units
Green Bay +3.5 / 4 units
Baltimore +9.5 / 2 units
Seattle + 3.5 / 3 units

4 teamer same way for one unit.

I am going against you on the Seattle v Atlanta game, but with you on the rest. I also like the under in the Baltimore v Denver game, and the over in the Packers v 49'ers game. Got a couple of parlays involving these as well.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2295 on: January 12, 2013, 03:46:10 pm »

Wow Denver early punt return from TD hurts. Granted I want Denver to win. Just not cover. I HATE Baltimore and am sick of Ray Lewis!
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2296 on: January 12, 2013, 03:48:44 pm »

I am going against you on the Seattle v Atlanta game, but with you on the rest. I also like the under in the Baltimore v Denver game, and the over in the Packers v 49'ers game. Got a couple of parlays involving these as well.

Ya know Will the Seattle Atlanta game is almost a toss up. In normal conditions I would have played the under with Denver and Baltimore, but left it alone because nobody likes to tackle when it cold. Probably still a good bet for you though.  I hope.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2297 on: January 12, 2013, 09:41:25 pm »

both of these games have been a blast to watch!!! esp compared to last weekend.  49ers look like they have essentially stolen washington's offense (spread option) and kapernick is running it really well.  he is so good!
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2298 on: January 12, 2013, 10:47:12 pm »

both of these games have been a blast to watch!!! esp compared to last weekend.  49ers look like they have essentially stolen washington's offense (spread option) and kapernick is running it really well.  he is so good!

I will be anxious to see how good rg3, kaper, and Russell Wilson are next year running that garbage.  Many on here were bowing at the feet of scam newton after his rookie performance last year, and what do he do?  Give me Andrew luck all day and twice on Sunday if I got the saying right.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #2299 on: January 12, 2013, 10:50:48 pm »

both of these games have been a blast to watch!!! esp compared to last weekend.  49ers look like they have essentially stolen washington's offense (spread option) and kapernick is running it really well.  he is so good!
both of these games have been a blast to watch!!! esp compared to last weekend.  49ers look like they have essentially stolen washington's offense (spread option) and kapernick is running it really well.  he is so good!
both of these games have been a blast to watch!!! esp compared to last weekend.  49ers look like they have essentially stolen washington's offense (spread option) and kapernick is running it really well.  he is so good!


I lost the Green Bay San fan game tonight because I bet on Aaron Rogers vs Dan Fran.  I will make that play till the end of time.  Didn't work out, but I don't believe in kapermania although two more wins from him and I will look like a tard! :)
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