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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 340835 times)

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jkstock04

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1800 on: November 05, 2012, 03:51:33 pm »

Well said.  That is the approach I take.  I analyzed the games for this weekend, picked a few games that I thought were my best plays, and the Hog game was one of them (and, yes, it had to overcome the additional hurdle of me generally not wanting to bet against them).  Here are a few of the factors that brought the game to the top of my list:

(1) general gut feeling after watching both teams play - lean SC
(2) general gut feeling about which of the SEC lines for the week looked a bit off - lean SC
(3) SC (No. 5 scoring O) v. Ark (no. 11 scoring D)(all stats are SEC Only) - lean SC
(4) Ark missing another LB from an already weak D - weak lean SC
(5) Ark secondary's ability to improve Opponent's passing game - lean SC
(6) Spurrier at home vs. JLS on the road - strong lean SC
(7) SC (No. 1 in sacks) & Clowney vs. Tyler getting hit repeatedly by Tulsa - strong lean SC
(8 ) Sagarin at >70% ATS on the season when picking an SEC favorite to cover - lean SC
(9) Sagarin at >80% ATS on the season on Hog games - lean SC

I hope I'm wrong!  I will pull for the Hogs no matter what and understand why many folks would not bet against their team. 

One asterisk to keep in mind is Clowney is questionable with a foot injury.  He spent the majority of the 2nd half of the Tennessee game on the sidelines.   
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1801 on: November 05, 2012, 03:53:23 pm »

I understand your POV. When I've bet against the Hogs, it has been with money I frankly hope to lose (sounds silly, I know). The bet is made w/ my brain, not my heart. I can therefore easily set aside the conflict of interest and cheer for them same as ever. But I can see and understand why people would absolutely not bet against their team.

I detest losing. I have no desire to throw money away. It is a win win for you, but for me it's a lose lose. If I win, the hogs lost. If the hogs won , I lose. I do this to make money. While there is an element if entertainment for me, 95% is on winning. While I certainly understand those who do this simply to add entertainment to a game, I'm not one who simply does it for entertainment.

I don't look down on those who bet on the hogs to lose, it's just not something I could do. If it was my only option to win money, I would pass for the wknd.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1802 on: November 05, 2012, 04:38:36 pm »

I detest losing. I have no desire to throw money away. It is a win win for you, but for me it's a lose lose. If I win, the hogs lost. If the hogs won , I lose. I do this to make money. While there is an element if entertainment for me, 95% is on winning. While I certainly understand those who do this simply to add entertainment to a game, I'm not one who simply does it for entertainment.

I don't look down on those who bet on the hogs to lose, it's just not something I could do. If it was my only option to win money, I would pass for the wknd.

Fair enough. I like hearing other's POV. I don't do this to win, but nobody here seeing my record year-to-year needed me to tell them that. Frankly I suck at it. But it's fun. I'm jealous of you guys that add to your income by doing this.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1803 on: November 05, 2012, 05:16:56 pm »

So I've added:

Arkansas St -6....2*
New Mexico +1....1*
Pitt -3....2*
Oklahoma -20....1*
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1804 on: November 05, 2012, 05:27:39 pm »

I know u guys don't play or track nba, but I'm adding...

Sacramento -1   1.5 units.......W
« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 10:12:15 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1805 on: November 05, 2012, 06:04:12 pm »

So, the juice line on tonights game went from 115/105 to 120/E now it's 125/105.
Line hasnt changed from +3, so what should this tell me?

I took the eagles 2 units FWIW
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1806 on: November 05, 2012, 06:29:33 pm »

So, the juice line on tonights game went from 115/105 to 120/E now it's 125/105.
Line hasnt changed from +3, so what should this tell me?

I took the eagles 2 units FWIW

They change the juice when action is similar on each side. That's why the line doesn't move. They move the juice to make the payout better to entice you to play a certain side. Not really much more to read into it other than that its been pretty steady betting on both sides.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1807 on: November 05, 2012, 08:13:28 pm »

I don't know. With mjd out and Indy getting better each week, this seems like an easy Indy win. Jax only getting 3 at home speaks a lot. I need to run some numbers to see which way I go but the prelim says Indy by 6
I don't know. With mjd out and Indy getting better each week, this seems like an easy Indy win. Jax only getting 3 at home speaks a lot. I need to run some numbers to see which way I go but the prelim says Indy by 6
I don't know. With mjd out and Indy getting better each week, this seems like an easy Indy win. Jax only getting 3 at home speaks a lot. I need to run some numbers to see which way I go but the prelim says Indy by 6

If I play that game I would go Indy, but no plans as of yet.  Didn't do anything on tonight's game.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1808 on: November 05, 2012, 08:14:19 pm »

Not sure why when I do the quote option it pops it three times like that fr me.  Crazy dude.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1809 on: November 05, 2012, 10:15:46 pm »

Well, Damnit.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1810 on: November 06, 2012, 05:18:03 pm »

Took Toledo -6
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1811 on: November 07, 2012, 04:41:55 pm »

My great week fizzled with mnf but I had a solid week. This week I look to get off on the right foot again.

Bowling green +3.       2.5 units.......W


All about the defense in this one.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 10:13:45 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1812 on: November 07, 2012, 04:43:28 pm »

My great week fizzled with mnf but I had a solid week. This week I look to get off on the right foot again.

Bowling green +3.       2.5 units


All about the defense in this one.

You still like Indy tomorrow?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1813 on: November 07, 2012, 05:36:02 pm »

Adding

Clippers +2.      1.5 units......W
Mavs -7.              1 unit........L
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 05:26:14 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1814 on: November 07, 2012, 05:40:02 pm »

You still like Indy tomorrow?

Honestly, most of my time has been spent on the Thursday night college game. But yeah, I would lean Indy until the line got to 6. But I'm not even sure I even play it unless I play a total. I'll let u know tomorrow.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1815 on: November 07, 2012, 10:15:41 pm »

YTD RECORD 68-48
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 05:25:44 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1816 on: November 07, 2012, 11:48:24 pm »

YTD RECORD 67-48
Anything around 60% is very solid! Good luck on a strong finish.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1817 on: November 08, 2012, 10:30:57 am »

Honestly, most of my time has been spent on the Thursday night college game. But yeah, I would lean Indy until the line got to 6. But I'm not even sure I even play it unless I play a total. I'll let u know tomorrow.

I may end up playing A State tonight and just stay away from IND/JAX. I was high on JAX when the line came out, but I really hate taking dogs who suck as bad as the Jags do. Along with ULM's QB out, their top 2 RBs, top LB, top DL, and top DB are out as well according to a buddy of mine in Jonesboro who said he read it in the paper. Going to research it myself sometime today to confirm.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1818 on: November 08, 2012, 11:55:52 am »

Just an FYI, for those of u on Facebook, vegasinsiders gives out free picks every day. So far they are batting 1000 on CFB this week. I'm gonna check and see how good they been, but this week they are on point.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1819 on: November 08, 2012, 12:04:35 pm »

Just an FYI, for those of u on Facebook, vegasinsiders gives out free picks every day. So far they are batting 1000 on CFB this week. I'm gonna check and see how good they been, but this week they are on point.

Cool, thanks for the heads up. Every little bit of info helps
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1820 on: November 08, 2012, 12:14:26 pm »

Just locked in A State -7. ULM has seven starters out.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1821 on: November 08, 2012, 01:01:29 pm »

Va tech +14.    4    units........W
Ark st. -7.        2.5 units........W
Indy/jax u43.   1.5 units........W
Indy -3.           1.   Unit.........W


« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 10:33:10 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1822 on: November 08, 2012, 01:33:56 pm »

To the picks from Monday, I'm adding . . . .

Arky St.  -7
WVU  +9
IN/Jax  u42.5

(thanks sir-pigs)
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1823 on: November 08, 2012, 01:47:08 pm »

Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1824 on: November 08, 2012, 02:14:56 pm »

If the Blazers are still getting 2, I'd take 'em if I were a fan of gambling the NBA.
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Blutoblutarsky

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1825 on: November 08, 2012, 02:22:50 pm »

Taking Gus tonight. -7. No Browning for ULM
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1826 on: November 08, 2012, 02:57:05 pm »

Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.
Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.
Sir Pigs,

I see that the Clippers are playing on the road tonight after playing at home last night. If the line is close in situations like this, would it be wise to bet on the home team? Blazers didn't play last night.

Not a huge fan of trends and angles, but occasionally they work. I would play small on Portland .
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1827 on: November 08, 2012, 02:57:58 pm »

Not sure why when I do the quote option it pops it three times like that fr me.  Crazy dude.

I'm on my iPhone when I notice it doing it to me.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1828 on: November 08, 2012, 05:09:42 pm »

Going large with ASU tonight!
YTD: 53-39-1, +19.5 units

4 units:
Arkansas State -6.5 W

3 units:
Tennessee -3 L
Nebraska -8 W

2 units:
Arkansas +14 L
Baylor +21.5 W
LA Tech -20 L

1 unit
Syracuse +1.5 W
Virginia -2 L
« Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 10:17:47 pm by yraciv »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1829 on: November 08, 2012, 06:02:26 pm »

Going large with ASU tonight!
YTD: 49-35-1, +16.5 units

4 units:
Arkansas State -6.5

I probably should have played more...looks like an easy win
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1830 on: November 08, 2012, 06:15:24 pm »

So the vegasinsider free facebook picks  for the last week broke down to:

CFB 3-2
NFL 4-0
NBA 4-1
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1831 on: November 08, 2012, 10:34:54 pm »

4-0 Thursday night

YTD RECORD 72-48
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1832 on: November 09, 2012, 08:13:21 am »

Who are you taking tomorrow?

I've got Ole Miss -3, and Bama -13.5 right now. Also looking at LSU -15, UGA -14.5, Akron -16.5, and TCU +7.5.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1833 on: November 09, 2012, 09:10:56 am »

ASU was the easiest bet of the entire year.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1834 on: November 09, 2012, 09:17:54 am »

ASU was the easiest bet of the entire year.

It really was. As soon as that game kicked off, I thought to myself how I should have put way more than one unit on the Red Wolves.
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The Hogfather

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1835 on: November 09, 2012, 09:21:56 am »

I sweat a little after that 1st 3 and out for ASU and subsequent TD for ULM.  But, after that, it went exactly like I thought it would.  Easy money.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1836 on: November 09, 2012, 09:29:30 am »

Louisville -1.5 / 5 units
Penn ST +9 / 2 units
W VA +9.5 / 5 units
K-St -7 / 10 unit dime play.
Baylor +21.5 / 3 units

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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1837 on: November 09, 2012, 09:38:46 am »

Louisville -1.5 / 5 units
Penn ST +9 / 2 units
W VA +9.5 / 5 units
K-St -7 / 10 unit dime play.
Baylor +21.5 / 3 units



I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1838 on: November 09, 2012, 09:45:17 am »

I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

I'm actually bumping my Louisville bet from earlier in the week, because I got it at -3. Syracuse is horrible.

I've tried and tried to find an angle based on betting trends and line movement but I just can't seem to connect the 2. No consistency. Not being an ass, just letting you know. You may be right this weekend, but over the long run, it's about 50-50
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1839 on: November 09, 2012, 10:00:18 am »

ASU was the easiest bet of the entire year.

Maybe but I thought va tech getting 14 at home on Thursday night was easier money than ark state. In fact , I almost played them on the money line.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1840 on: November 09, 2012, 04:12:05 pm »

Small play .....

Pitt -3.      1.5 units......L
« Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 07:47:35 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1841 on: November 09, 2012, 06:14:32 pm »

Louisville -1.5 / 5 units
Penn ST +9 / 2 units
W VA +9.5 / 5 units
K-St -7 / 10 unit dime play.
Baylor +21.5 / 3 units


Why are u so confident West Virginia can keep it close? Thinking about playing it and need some confidence.
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la20688

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1842 on: November 09, 2012, 11:40:32 pm »

Miami  +1  (fading PP on Virginia after big upset last week)
Cuse   +2  (trap game & Louisville a little overrated)
Bama -13.5 (Bad spot for Bama, but just too good for A&M)
Washington +1 (Getting pts @ home vs. Utah, who has not played well on road)
La Tech  -20   (Tech, too much O for Texas St.)
Ariz St +9.5   (USC no D over ranked vs. ASU  solid D under ranked)
Ore St  +4.5  (More of a gut pick, just really like OSU in this spot)
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1843 on: November 10, 2012, 12:29:44 am »

Why are u so confident West Virginia can keep it close? Thinking about playing it and need some confidence.


Never take my word for it my man! Just the way I am betting.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1844 on: November 10, 2012, 12:35:49 am »

I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

I appreciate the advice, but will stick to my pick. I will listen to anything anyone has to say. That said I always do it on my own and rise or fall on my own stuff.

I actually added 5 more units to Louisville. Cuse will fall easily.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1845 on: November 10, 2012, 12:51:30 am »

I appreciate the advice, but will stick to my pick. I will listen to anything anyone has to say. That said I always do it on my own and rise or fall on my own stuff.

I actually added 5 more units to Louisville. Cuse will fall easily.

Never take my word for it my man! Just the way I am betting.
I know what you mean. I try to stick with what I think. For instance I'm thinking Tennessee will beat Missouri.

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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1846 on: November 10, 2012, 10:57:35 am »

Georgia -14.      10 units........W
Washington pk.    4 units........W
Ucla -16.              3 units.......L
« Last Edit: November 11, 2012, 01:16:12 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1847 on: November 10, 2012, 12:46:04 pm »

I'd probably back off a few units on Louisville. That's a trap if I've ever seen one. You have 77% of the bets on Louisville yet the line has dropped a point from where it opened. Vegas thinks Syracuse is going to win this game. Therefore, I would play Cuse if anyone. I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, just would like to offer the little insight I have.

I may end up eating a little crow on this one.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1848 on: November 10, 2012, 01:42:08 pm »

Adding....

Tamu +14.      2 units........W
Wake +8.      1.5 units ......L
« Last Edit: November 10, 2012, 06:17:34 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Hoggy1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1849 on: November 10, 2012, 01:46:21 pm »

Ravens -9

Rockets -7

UGA -15

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