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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 329584 times)

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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1700 on: October 28, 2012, 07:14:08 pm »

5* lock of the year this week.

Oregon -7 @ USC

One that may get close to a 5* lock is

Kansas St -8 v OkSt....3*

Locking these 2 in. I don't even know if I'll play any more.

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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1701 on: October 28, 2012, 09:26:48 pm »

Maryland on QB #5 this coming Saturday. Terrible luck for Maryland this season at the position.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/terrapins-insider/wp/2012/10/28/caleb-rowe-tears-acl-will-miss-rest-of-the-season/
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1702 on: October 29, 2012, 11:45:38 am »

I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1703 on: October 29, 2012, 12:00:57 pm »

I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way

+1
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1704 on: October 29, 2012, 12:01:02 pm »

NYG seem like easy $...-2

I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way

That game about gave me a heart attack at the end. I can't imagine what it is like to be a Cowboys fan and watch that debacle every week. That right hand landing out of bounds paid for my weekend.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1705 on: October 29, 2012, 12:05:00 pm »

...
« Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 10:40:41 pm by DadVader1 »
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1706 on: October 29, 2012, 12:09:35 pm »

That game about gave me a heart attack at the end. I can't imagine what it is like to be a Cowboys fan and watch that debacle every week. That right hand landing out of bounds paid for my weekend.

As a wretched Cowboys fan, that -2 on NYG did seem like easy money....especially at 23-0. Definitely a tale of 2 games.  But lost by some fingers (and 4 int's, and poor playcalling on 2nd & 1, and 2 fumble -- a typical team effort).

But anytime I bet against my teams, I'm trying to bet w/ my brain and not my heart....BUT it is money I don't mind losing. Ha. When Dallas was coming back, I was pretty excited.

I've been a fan since birth (thanks Dad!), and won't change teams regardless of how high the frustration gets w/ Jerry, Tony, Garrett, etc. I cheered as hard and watched all the games when 1-15 as in good years. But it is frustrating, and the blame starts at the top.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 12:11:23 pm by McKdaddy »
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1707 on: October 29, 2012, 12:30:46 pm »

As a wretched Cowboys fan, that -2 on NYG did seem like easy money....especially at 23-0. Definitely a tale of 2 games.  But lost by some fingers (and 4 int's, and poor playcalling on 2nd & 1, and 2 fumble -- a typical team effort).

But anytime I bet against my teams, I'm trying to bet w/ my brain and not my heart....BUT it is money I don't mind losing. Ha. When Dallas was coming back, I was pretty excited.

I've been a fan since birth (thanks Dad!), and won't change teams regardless of how high the frustration gets w/ Jerry, Tony, Garrett, etc. I cheered as hard and watched all the games when 1-15 as in good years. But it is frustrating, and the blame starts at the top.

Great way to put it. For some reason I took Arkansas -6 Saturday. Third time I have bet my team this year, and the other two were ULM and Bama. I took Bama, obviously. So I guess I am 1/3 when betting hog games. I'm done with that.

At halftime, the line was Ole Miss +4. I took that for 50 bucks and felt great about it. Friend sitting with me was so offended I bet against the hogs. I told him if I lose my bet, we probably win the game and I'm fine with it. He bitched at me the whole second half. It was Win-Win in my opinion.

edit: my NCAA lines aren't available yet online and it is irritating me. I am determined to start locking better numbers in early in the week but that is hard to do when you can't see them.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 12:32:45 pm by Hawgndaaz »
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Wildhog

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1708 on: October 29, 2012, 12:37:28 pm »

Great way to put it. For some reason I took Arkansas -6 Saturday. Third time I have bet my team this year, and the other two were ULM and Bama. I took Bama, obviously. So I guess I am 1/3 when betting hog games. I'm done with that.

At halftime, the line was Ole Miss +4. I took that for 50 bucks and felt great about it. Friend sitting with me was so offended I bet against the hogs. I told him if I lose my bet, we probably win the game and I'm fine with it. He bitched at me the whole second half. It was Win-Win in my opinion.

edit: my NCAA lines aren't available yet online and it is irritating me. I am determined to start locking better numbers in early in the week but that is hard to do when you can't see them.

Where do you make your bets online?
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1709 on: October 29, 2012, 12:45:55 pm »

Where do you make your bets online?

I go through a guy that uses a website. He takes referrals so if you're interested I could get you in.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1710 on: October 29, 2012, 01:17:55 pm »

I'm going to start posting my picks at halftime. Seems its easier to win that way

No doubt!
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1711 on: October 29, 2012, 01:25:16 pm »

In trying to find information on databases and spreadsheets, I dug up an old article that I ran across in 2010 that you might find interesting for a few points:

it quantified the "bet on a home dog on Monday Night Football": 87-71 as of 2010 (or 55%); and

It also has 3 "system" bets that are rare, very complicated, and very successful:
1) College basketball: a final four bet that between 1991 & 2010 was 16-0 ATS (play against a final four team coming off of 4 wins ATS if it's priced from +2 to +9 & is matched against a 0.800 or better opponent);
2) NBA: a bet that between 1990 & 2010 was 16-0 ATS (play for a 0.657 or better team that's playing with revenge from an 8 point or worse loss to a 0.500 or better opponent, off a win that covered the previous night); and
3) College football: a bet that between 1980 & 2010 was 14-0 (play against an fbs team in its first road game, if it's the 1st or 2d game of the season, and if it's matched against a non-conference foe, off back-to-back losses, with its most recent loss at home, provided the home team isn't favored by more than 14 points). 

Here is the article: http://drbobsports.com/database.pdf

That 55% you are talking about 81-71 doesn't work for me.  If a unit is 100.00 with those numbers  you win 8100.00 and lost 7810.00.  Using 150 games that a little less than a 2 dollar per game profit.  Percentage needs to be a minimum of 62% for me to even consider using a trend.  Not a trend guy.
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1712 on: October 29, 2012, 02:14:33 pm »

That 55% you are talking about 81-71 doesn't work for me.  If a unit is 100.00 with those numbers  you win 8100.00 and lost 7810.00.  Using 150 games that a little less than a 2 dollar per game profit.  Percentage needs to be a minimum of 62% for me to even consider using a trend.  Not a trend guy.

I would have guessed that the MNF home dog percentage would have been higher.  I haven't been a trend guy to date, but I'm not above looking for trends to see if they support my leans or increasing my units played if a trend does support my lean. 
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1713 on: October 29, 2012, 02:38:30 pm »

I would have guessed that the MNF home dog percentage would have been higher.  I haven't been a trend guy to date, but I'm not above looking for trends to see if they support my leans or increasing my units played if a trend does support my lean. 

Oh I hear you and agree.  No such thing as too much info when it comes to this stuff.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1714 on: October 29, 2012, 05:16:11 pm »

San Fran -7.    3 units.....W
Under 38.        1 unit......W

I unit parlay the same way W

3-0 Monday night

YTD 55-41
 
« Last Edit: October 30, 2012, 12:12:51 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1715 on: October 29, 2012, 06:20:45 pm »

Took SF -7  2 units

My under is 37.5, not sure i'm going to mess with it though.

Just did a first half parlay

SF -4
O 19  1 unit
« Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 06:22:46 pm by Hawgndaaz »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1716 on: October 30, 2012, 12:16:08 am »

Closed the week with a bang. Sure is a lot more fun when u win.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1717 on: October 30, 2012, 10:44:25 am »

So I'm thinking Wake -3.5 at home against BC is gold.

What's y'all's take on UF -15.5 at home against Mizzou?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1718 on: October 30, 2012, 10:47:13 am »

Indiana -1.5 at home vs. Iowa looks good too.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1719 on: October 30, 2012, 11:12:59 am »

So I'm thinking Wake -3.5 at home against BC is gold.

What's y'all's take on UF -15.5 at home against Mizzou?

I like both of those. UF's defense should shut down Mizzou without a problem.

Going to take Boise at home again, why not.

Got Oregon @ USC last night. Line was 7.5 so I bought half a point to sleep better.
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1720 on: October 30, 2012, 11:18:57 am »

Oregon should be fine as long as the hype doesn't get to them. Boise's a coin flip in my opinion. K State could be the lock of the week.
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JOHNP

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1721 on: October 30, 2012, 11:31:52 am »

Any thoughts on Ark St -4.5? They looked good last week against Lafayette.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1722 on: October 30, 2012, 11:41:55 am »

Any thoughts on Ark St -4.5? They looked good last week against Lafayette.

It's on my board. I'm researching it. Looks too good though...but for now I like it.
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JOHNP

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1723 on: October 30, 2012, 11:47:06 am »

I was thinking the same. I did notice that A-State is playing La-Mon next. Dont know if that will affect this week or not.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1724 on: October 30, 2012, 11:50:50 am »

I was thinking the same. I did notice that A-State is playing La-Mon next. Dont know if that will affect this week or not.

Could be a factor. A state coming off a big road win and playing on the road is a part of it too.
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JOHNP

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1725 on: October 30, 2012, 01:52:17 pm »

I have not seen anyone mention Clemson -13.5. Any takers?
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1726 on: October 30, 2012, 02:56:51 pm »

I have not seen anyone mention Clemson -13.5. Any takers?

Duke is a bit unpredictable as far as covering the spread is concerned and they're at home so I deem it as something that isn't playable for myself.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1727 on: October 30, 2012, 04:10:25 pm »

Gonna try my hand in the league ....

Cavs -5.5    1.5 units......W

YTD RECORD 56-41
« Last Edit: October 30, 2012, 08:29:22 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1728 on: October 30, 2012, 06:16:21 pm »

Gonna try my hand in the league ....

Cavs -5.5    1.5 units

Rarely do I get near that league. Haven't watched a game in 10 years.  Bet a few last year late in the season, but no longer a sport to me.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1729 on: October 30, 2012, 08:28:28 pm »

Rarely do I get near that league. Haven't watched a game in 10 years.  Bet a few last year late in the season, but no longer a sport to me.

Haha. I feel ya bro. I hate the nba. I do however like to make money and I'll dabble around and play a few games if I feel I can make some coin. Tonight was one of those times.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1730 on: October 31, 2012, 04:20:02 pm »

Clippers -3.                   4 units....W
Spurs/hornets u187.5.   2 units.....L

YTD RECORD 57-42
« Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 12:47:04 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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widespreadsooie

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1731 on: October 31, 2012, 04:27:04 pm »

I think I've solidified my picks for Saturday:

UF -17
Wake -3.5
Indiana -1.5
Bama -9.5
K State -9.5

I know they're all favorites, but I prefer making up points with the better team (usually) than trying to hang on to 'em with the lesser of the two.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1732 on: October 31, 2012, 04:46:49 pm »

I've never wagered on NBA. Think I am going to do some real small bets to get the feel for it. Anything I need to know about basketball wagers in general?

just did a parlay for shnits and giggles

bulls -6
clippers -3.5
lakers -2.5 @ blazers
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1733 on: November 01, 2012, 06:55:41 am »

I've never wagered on NBA. Think I am going to do some real small bets to get the feel for it. Anything I need to know about basketball wagers in general?

just did a parlay for shnits and giggles

bulls -6
clippers -3.5
lakers -2.5 @ blazers


Eh I used to play the nba quite a bit when I followed it more.  Barkley, Bird, Jordan, magic,  during those days.  I memory serves look hard against the team playing in consecutive nights especially if thy are the road team and favored.

I don't have much to offer sorry.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1734 on: November 01, 2012, 07:13:23 am »

Kent St -19 / 4 units
Clemson -13.5 / 5 units
Clemson Duke over 65 / 5 units
W Va -7 / 3 units
Pitt +19 / 5 units
Oregon -8 / 3 units

Leaning toward Florida - and ole piss +, but still uncommitted on those two.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1735 on: November 01, 2012, 08:19:32 am »

screw the NBA
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1736 on: November 01, 2012, 09:50:42 am »

So far . . .

Sips  +8
GaTech  -7
Clem  -13
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1737 on: November 01, 2012, 03:36:20 pm »

This week, I've done:

Ole Miss +14 @ GA  4 units
A&M -6.5 @ MS State 2 units
A&M -7 @ MS State 2 units
Bama -8.5 @ LSU 10 units
FL -17 v. MO  10 units

Added:
Kentucky +7 v. Vandy (1 unit)
Tulsa +9 @ Hogs (1 unit)

Added, Part 2:
A&M -6.5 (6 units ... finally figured out how to buy the hook)
« Last Edit: December 06, 2012, 10:21:28 pm by DadVader1 »
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1738 on: November 01, 2012, 03:51:02 pm »

Chargers -7   3 units........W
Miami fl +2    1 unit.........W

YTD RECORD 59-42
« Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 10:28:42 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1739 on: November 01, 2012, 03:56:33 pm »

Chargers -7   3 units
Miami fl +2    1 unit

I so want to jump on Miami tonight, but VTech has screwed me in every game that I've bet on this year, that they are playing in. So tempted.
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1740 on: November 01, 2012, 04:07:10 pm »

I took chargers at -8. risky but the chiefs are turrible. plus, i've developed a gambling problem.

will bet small on miami i think.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1741 on: November 01, 2012, 04:38:02 pm »

I so want to jump on Miami tonight, but VTech has screwed me in every game that I've bet on this year, that they are playing in. So tempted.
the va tech split personality is why I'm only playing small. I almost bet the money line.
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1742 on: November 01, 2012, 05:42:01 pm »

Chiefs +7.5 / 2 units
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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1743 on: November 01, 2012, 06:59:26 pm »

Took Miami +1.5

Their defense looks strikingly resemblant to a certain sec west school many of us root for :(
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1744 on: November 01, 2012, 07:06:50 pm »

KC  +7  Opened +9, now at +7, w/ 65% public on SD.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1745 on: November 01, 2012, 07:31:22 pm »

I'm going to put 1 unit on the Chiefs tonight +7. Cheifs are bad, but Chargers haven't looked much better and were down right awful last week.  And I'm going to stick to football picks in here for my record, but if you guys still are trying to dabble on NBA games take the Spurs tonight.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2012, 07:35:26 pm by yraciv »
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1746 on: November 01, 2012, 08:25:50 pm »

I'm going to put 1 unit on the Chiefs tonight +7. Cheifs are bad, but Chargers haven't looked much better and were down right awful last week.  And I'm going to stick to football picks in here for my record, but if you guys still are trying to dabble on NBA games take the Spurs tonight.

Lol thanks ad prob a good pick, but NBA for the most part no way.  That could hange though. Never know.  Good luck!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1747 on: November 01, 2012, 09:31:30 pm »

You guys play NCAA hoops?
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1748 on: November 01, 2012, 09:40:20 pm »

You guys play NCAA hoops?

I couldn't do this year long. I throw in NBA or College Basketball games every now and then, but there are just way too many of them. I'll glance at those lines from time to time, but something really has to stick out. And I'm a bigger basketball fan, so can't say the temptation isn't there.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1749 on: November 01, 2012, 10:32:00 pm »

Big 2-0 Thursday night. I'm killing Thursday night football. To say I'm on the best run of my life is an understatement . I imagine I'll cool off again eventually, but for now I am on fire and enjoying the ride.
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