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Author Topic: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)  (Read 339949 times)

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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1500 on: October 12, 2012, 10:12:42 am »

WVU line moved to 4.5...  Better than going the other way I guess.

The thing about WVU is their offense is just so freaking good, and their defense is just so freaking bad.  Almost every game is going to be a shootout and Geno and co. know that they need to score every possession.  AKA they aren't running the clock out up 10 in the 4th.  Just can't see them coming away without a win and with as high scoring of a game as it will be, I really can't imagine it ending at one score.

Well that's all for me trying to convince myself that that pick is good.
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1501 on: October 12, 2012, 10:24:05 am »

WVU line moved to 4.5...  Better than going the other way I guess.

The thing about WVU is their offense is just so freaking good, and their defense is just so freaking bad.  Almost every game is going to be a shootout and Geno and co. know that they need to score every possession.  AKA they aren't running the clock out up 10 in the 4th.  Just can't see them coming away without a win and with as high scoring of a game as it will be, I really can't imagine it ending at one score.

Well that's all for me trying to convince myself that that pick is good.


I think it is a good pick.  In my parlay i got them at -4 and bet the over of 77.5.  Tech's D is much worse than UTs and their offense will throw the ball almost every play (I think UT wins if they dont try to run the ball as much, idk what mack and the OC were thinking).  I can see it being 35-21 at half.  think we hit 77.5 in the 3rd quarter
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1502 on: October 12, 2012, 10:26:08 am »

Titans +7 as home dogs
Utep/Tulsa u62
Arizona st -21

3-0 to start the weekend off, well done sir pigs!  Great call on the Titans game, very impressive
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1503 on: October 12, 2012, 10:34:48 am »

If you are looking for one big hit, pocket the cash, and quit you are going about it the right way.  I do like the pick, but not an entire bankroll pick whether you bankroll is 100.00 1250.00 or 20,000.00.  W Va flew into Austin and won. Back to Morgantown, now flying into Lubbock. That is the only reason the line isn't WVa -10 or more. Somewhat like a west coast team in nfL flowing to the eastern time zone for an early start.

I think you win your bet.  That being said this is an investment for me. Started at 15 and 40 now. Have made money the past 20 or more years. Took my lumps the hard way.  I still have horrible weeks, but its all about the entire season. Roll over what you win to next year. Trust me on this I can survive some horrible weeks because of many previous profitable seasons.

Never make a big bet to buy an item you want for instance. You may hit once or twice, but sooner or later it will bite you in the butt.
Thanks for the advice. If I win maybe i can start thinking of this as a investment.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1504 on: October 12, 2012, 10:41:55 am »

 What does unit mean?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1505 on: October 12, 2012, 10:48:51 am »

What does unit mean?

It's just a way to disclose in relative terms how much you bet on each game without disclosing dollar amounts.  One person's "unit" might be $10, one might be $25, one might be $100.  It lets you know how much the person likes each particular pick and gives you a feel for whether they really like a game or whether they just have a small amount on a game for the heck of it.  It also helps you keep track of whether someone is up or down for a weekend or the season, to help you decide how much weight to give their picks when making your own selections. 
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1506 on: October 12, 2012, 10:54:14 am »

 That makes since. Well then I have 5 units on west Virginia to win.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1507 on: October 12, 2012, 11:01:58 am »

That makes since. Well then I have 5 units on west Virginia to win.
 

so a unit for you is $250, yes?
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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1508 on: October 12, 2012, 11:10:16 am »

On the SCe/LSU game, it sounds like one of LSU's senior OL (Hurst) is going to miss the game for personal reasons and will likely be replaced by a freshman. 
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1509 on: October 12, 2012, 11:48:35 am »

3-0 Thursday night. Finally got an nfl win.

YTD RECORD 34-27
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1510 on: October 12, 2012, 11:50:24 am »

3-0 to start the weekend off, well done sir pigs!  Great call on the Titans game, very impressive

Thank ya, sir
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1511 on: October 12, 2012, 12:39:46 pm »

 

so a unit for you is $250, yes?
yep lol
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1512 on: October 12, 2012, 04:20:38 pm »

Cent Michigan pk .....2 units
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1513 on: October 12, 2012, 04:25:10 pm »

What does unit mean?

Different for different people.  Some it's 10.00 or 100.00 or 1000.00

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1514 on: October 12, 2012, 04:28:27 pm »

W Va -4. / 4 units
Baylor -7 / 5 units
Notre Dame -7 / 5 units
Oregon st +5.5 3 units
Uconn -5.5 4 units

1 unit three team parlay WVa, Baylor, uconn.

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Hawgndaaz

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1515 on: October 12, 2012, 04:37:05 pm »

Took second half Titans at +4.5 last night. won 4 units (luckily)


Just bet:

WVU -4, 4 units and will probably add more tomorrow
Louisville -3 1 unit
Florida -9 2 units

Looking at:

Bama/Mizzou OVER
Ole Miss




Going to add more in the morning.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1516 on: October 12, 2012, 06:12:49 pm »

I'm putting together sort of a bettors dictionary for new players. Any terms you wanna add , feel free.

Action: any type of play that involves putting money up.
Bookmaker: A person or company who accepts bets from the public, usually on racing or sports events (also known as a "bookie"). These can be local or offshore.
Bankroll: your total betting balance. How much you have to bet.
Chalk: a betting favorite. Signified by a (-) ..e.g -13
Circled game: a game in which the book places a limit on the bet amount. Usually because of uncertainty regarding the event. (Book may circle a game due to injury or off the field issues)
Cover: beating the spread. (Back door cover is a term used when you either win or lose late with a late score, )
Hook : the half of a point on a spread. I. E -12.5. Never get beat by the hook in a single digit spread.  (Personal strategy)
Dog: the underdog, opposite of chalk. Signified by (+)  e.g +11.
Juice: the amount paid to the book. E.g -110 means you have to bet 1.10 to win 1.00. The closer to 1.00 the less juice u have to pay. An even bet means there is no juice and for every dollar, you win a dollar.
Lock: a near guaranteed winner.
Parlay: increasing the odds by betting on more that 1 action. In a parlay, both bets have to win. The payout is significantly higher as the odds go up. The more events I a parlay, the higher the odds.
Sharp: an insider. People who lay big money. These are the people who make lines move.
Teaser: betting similar to a parlay where a bettor selects two or more events and has the ability to change the spread/point total in their favor at a cost of also improving the odds. I personally hate teasers as the risk is greater than the reward.(more personal preference)
Total: the combined score of an event. Signified by betti g either over or under ( one of my favorite plays)
Tout: someone who sells plays or info for a price. Usually a scam

My money management system....I never play more than 20%of my bank roll. Usually, my bets are between 5-7% of my total bank. My method is patience and grind. It's a marathon, not a sprint. It's easy to have a bad week, and then try to up your plays. Just find a system that works for you.

My board: I typically only play between 3-5 games at a time. Playing more than that seems counter productive. I would rather go 3-1 on some bigger plays than 6-6 on small plays. Again, everybody is different and this is just one method.

How I set up my board: on Monday, I pick 15 games that pass the eye test. They look like winners. I basically just look at over Ll record and numbers against the spread until I can narrow it down to 10. On Wednesday, I start crun hung numbers. Stats, records, trends etc. on thursdAy, I have nArrowed it down to 8. Usually with one of those being the Thursday night game. I don't put much into the Friday night game. On Friday, I rate my plays 1-5 with 5 being a must play and 1 being a throw away. On saturdy, I check my board with the. Here t line to see how it has changed and depending on the movement, I will select the games that have a rating of 3 or higher. Sometimes what was a 1 on Friday can be a 3 on Saturday. Even if I go 0-5, I will not try to recoup with a late game that I haven't prepped.

All this info is probably somewhere already , but its probably embedded somewhere in the middle of the madness. So may e the new players can have somewhat of an understanding of the terms and terminology.




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DadVader1

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1517 on: October 12, 2012, 07:10:23 pm »

THANKS Sir! That is exactly the type of info I have been looking for, but it's hard to find using google because you get flooded with BS results from betting sites and tout sites trying to sell you their services.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1518 on: October 12, 2012, 07:24:48 pm »

I'm putting together sort of a bettors dictionary for new players. Any terms you wanna add , feel free.

Action: any type of play that involves putting money up.
Bookmaker: A person or company who accepts bets from the public, usually on racing or sports events (also known as a "bookie"). These can be local or offshore.
Bankroll: your total betting balance. How much you have to bet.
Chalk: a betting favorite. Signified by a (-) ..e.g -13
Circled game: a game in which the book places a limit on the bet amount. Usually because of uncertainty regarding the event. (Book may circle a game due to injury or off the field issues)
Cover: beating the spread. (Back door cover is a term used when you either win or lose late with a late score, )
Hook : the half of a point on a spread. I. E -12.5. Never get beat by the hook in a single digit spread.  (Personal strategy)
Dog: the underdog, opposite of chalk. Signified by (+)  e.g +11.
Juice: the amount paid to the book. E.g -110 means you have to bet 1.10 to win 1.00. The closer to 1.00 the less juice u have to pay. An even bet means there is no juice and for every dollar, you win a dollar.
Lock: a near guaranteed winner.
Parlay: increasing the odds by betting on more that 1 action. In a parlay, both bets have to win. The payout is significantly higher as the odds go up. The more events I a parlay, the higher the odds.
Sharp: an insider. People who lay big money. These are the people who make lines move.
Teaser: betting similar to a parlay where a bettor selects two or more events and has the ability to change the spread/point total in their favor at a cost of also improving the odds. I personally hate teasers as the risk is greater than the reward.(more personal preference)
Total: the combined score of an event. Signified by betti g either over or under ( one of my favorite plays)
Tout: someone who sells plays or info for a price. Usually a scam

My money management system....I never play more than 20%of my bank roll. Usually, my bets are between 5-7% of my total bank. My method is patience and grind. It's a marathon, not a sprint. It's easy to have a bad week, and then try to up your plays. Just find a system that works for you.

My board: I typically only play between 3-5 games at a time. Playing more than that seems counter productive. I would rather go 3-1 on some bigger plays than 6-6 on small plays. Again, everybody is different and this is just one method.

How I set up my board: on Monday, I pick 15 games that pass the eye test. They look like winners. I basically just look at over Ll record and numbers against the spread until I can narrow it down to 10. On Wednesday, I start crun hung numbers. Stats, records, trends etc. on thursdAy, I have nArrowed it down to 8. Usually with one of those being the Thursday night game. I don't put much into the Friday night game. On Friday, I rate my plays 1-5 with 5 being a must play and 1 being a throw away. On saturdy, I check my board with the. Here t line to see how it has changed and depending on the movement, I will select the games that have a rating of 3 or higher. Sometimes what was a 1 on Friday can be a 3 on Saturday. Even if I go 0-5, I will not try to recoup with a late game that I haven't prepped.

All this info is probably somewhere already , but its probably embedded somewhere in the middle of the madness. So may e the new players can have somewhat of an understanding of the terms and terminology.






+1...Man I wish I would have had access to information in this thread when I was just starting out. I would have a fatter wallet that's for sure.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1519 on: October 12, 2012, 11:36:59 pm »

I really should lay off Friday night games. I picked cmu because they were the home team. That's the extent of my Friday night selection. As good as ice been on Thursday, I'm horrible on Friday.

YTD RECORD 34-28
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ur

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1520 on: October 13, 2012, 07:55:51 am »

A Progressive Parlay is very similar to a normal parlay but, in exchange for not getting as big a payout for picking a perfect combination, you are getting insurance for those occasions when one or more of the teams in your parlay loses.

These can be between 4 and 12 teams but you can only choose point spreads (no totals or moneylines).  In these parlays you can lose games and still win the bet because the payouts are lower.

4 - 6 teams... you can afford ONE team to lose/push
7 - 9 teams... you can afford TWO teams to lose/push
10 - 12 teams... you can afford THREE teams to lose/push

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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1521 on: October 13, 2012, 09:55:54 am »

Worries me that it has dropped a point already, must be some huge money on Texas Tech....Wonder what they know that we don't.


Only reason that line isn't WVa -10 is the two weeks of travel from Morgantown ad Texas combined with WVA coming off huge emotional win in Austin.

In talent WVa Should win by 24 or more.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1522 on: October 13, 2012, 10:09:35 am »

Tamu -8....................L
Utah st +3.................W
Ole miss -5................W
Tennessee +3.............L (lost by a one handed touchdown with 9 seconds on 4th and goal)
West Virginia -4...........L

Have 1 more I may add
Cal -7.........................W

3-3

YTD RECORD 37-30
« Last Edit: October 14, 2012, 09:58:55 am by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1523 on: October 13, 2012, 10:46:04 am »

YTD: 35-22-1, +10.5 units
4 units:
West Virginia -3.5 L

3 units:
OU -3.5 W
San Jose St. -3  L

2 units:
Vandy +10 L
Wash +14 W
Bama -21 W
Packers +3 W
ULL -5 L

1 unit
Wisc +1 W
Ball State -3 W
« Last Edit: October 20, 2012, 10:40:37 am by yraciv »
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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1524 on: October 13, 2012, 10:59:11 am »

Ole Miss has dropped to -4.  I was on the fence at -6 nut I went ahead and put a couple units on that one.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1525 on: October 13, 2012, 11:13:52 am »

good luck today everyone!
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1526 on: October 13, 2012, 12:07:07 pm »

Cal +7
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Huckleberry Pig

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1527 on: October 13, 2012, 02:31:46 pm »

looks like duke will ruin my second parlay after KState ruined my first one.  Duke put up 20pts in the first quarter, havnt scored since.  were up 20-17 at halftime and are now losing 41-20. 

I can't catch a break.  I'm gonna take a break for a week or two.  My last two weeks have been pathetic.
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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1528 on: October 13, 2012, 02:50:18 pm »

looks like duke will ruin my second parlay after KState ruined my first one.  Duke put up 20pts in the first quarter, havnt scored since.  were up 20-17 at halftime and are now losing 41-20. 

I can't catch a break.  I'm gonna take a break for a week or two.  My last two weeks have been pathetic.

It happens. good call on taking some time off, sometimes it helps.

I'm not betting another game that involves VTech. I lost betting on them for 3 weeks, and now lost betting against them this week.

I am adding

Baylor -6....2*
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Jeff "hogfanintx" Anderson

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1529 on: October 13, 2012, 02:54:15 pm »

I just upped my Baylor bet from 5 units to a dime. Nutt bet of the day.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1530 on: October 13, 2012, 03:45:16 pm »

We may be in trouble in Lubbock
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1531 on: October 13, 2012, 04:01:32 pm »

This sounds like good advice. Maybe i can try that next time. Cause I already put $1250 for West Virginia to win.

Somebody better check to make sure this guy is still alive
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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1532 on: October 13, 2012, 04:31:08 pm »

Well this sucks.
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WILL CLINTON

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1533 on: October 13, 2012, 05:04:33 pm »

Amazingly unbelievable.
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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1534 on: October 13, 2012, 05:07:50 pm »

I just did a major major no-no.

Decided to take LSU -3 tonight at the same clip that WVU just lost me.

First emotional bet I've ever made.  Today is either going to be epically bad or very relieving.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1535 on: October 13, 2012, 05:25:12 pm »

Somebody better check to make sure this guy is still alive

Forgot about that.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1536 on: October 13, 2012, 06:15:11 pm »

If you have 1250.00 to bet with look at thur fri and sat action only.  Pick out what you think the three strongest plays are. Put 200.00 on each.  If you make money or lose, and want to play something on Sunday you are still able. Also gives you a better shot at sticking around for another week.

Your bankroll should determine how much and what you bet.
My way
5 units- -4 west Virginia big loss

Your way
4 units- Alabama -21
4 units- Oregon state +6.5
Won both


So only down a little over a unit thanks to you.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1537 on: October 13, 2012, 06:21:05 pm »

My way
5 units- -4 west Virginia big loss

Your way
4 units- Alabama -21
4 units- Oregon state +6.5
Won both


So only down a little over a unit thanks to you.
Sorry I meant 2 units on the last two.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1538 on: October 13, 2012, 06:22:26 pm »

Somebody better check to make sure this guy is still alive
I'm still alive.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1539 on: October 13, 2012, 06:27:37 pm »

Is there another game tonight that looks good?
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1540 on: October 13, 2012, 06:45:57 pm »

I just upped my Baylor bet from 5 units to a dime. Nutt bet of the day.

Looks like nick Florence bet this game as well....his money must be on tcu
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1541 on: October 13, 2012, 06:51:02 pm »

I think I'm done for tonight. Going to go enjoy the game.
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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1542 on: October 13, 2012, 08:31:33 pm »

Wow, LSU is going to screw me.  They've outplayed the cocks on both sides of the ball and are getting beat at home.  Freaking Mettenberger pick.
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bsking

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1543 on: October 13, 2012, 10:46:06 pm »

Yep.  Officially taken to the woodshed today.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1544 on: October 13, 2012, 10:53:02 pm »

Yep.  Officially taken to the woodshed today.

We have all had em. You did what all of us have done at one point, far too many times. you Lose a big bet and then put money up to try to recoup. This takes discipline. Stay strong and learn for mistakes.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2012, 10:54:37 pm by sir-pigs-a-lot »
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1545 on: October 13, 2012, 11:41:29 pm »

I got to drinking and got some guts. Took New Mexico -1.5 over Hawaii. I got 8 units on this one trying to make up for the West Virginia game.
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yraciv

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1546 on: October 13, 2012, 11:44:29 pm »

I got to drinking and got some guts. Took New Mexico -1.5 over Hawaii. I got 8 units on this one trying to make up for the West Virginia game.

How do you have money left? You must have been saving up for this one night to throw it all away.
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sir-pigs-a-lot

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1547 on: October 13, 2012, 11:48:46 pm »

I got to drinking and got some guts. Took New Mexico -1.5 over Hawaii. I got 8 units on this one trying to make up for the West Virginia game.

I bet your book sends u a Christmas card this year.
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mccurdy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1548 on: October 13, 2012, 11:55:11 pm »

I won the Alabama and Oregon state game. So I was only down like 1 unit. Wow new Mexico up 21-0.
I need to win this one my baby needs shoes.
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McKdaddy

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Re: OFFICIAL post your picks thread (sports investing)
« Reply #1549 on: October 14, 2012, 12:08:04 am »

LSU     -2.5   L
Miami     +8   W
UL     -3   W
UK     +18.5   void
WVU     -4   L
Aub/Miss     u48.5   L

6pt teaser:  OSU  -11.5  &  DU  +16   L

I blow a$$.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2012, 12:23:04 am by McKdaddy »
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